~ Space Weather ~
Impacts on Critical
Infrastructure
Bill Murtagh
NOAA Space Weather Prediction
Center
Boulder, Colorado
REU 2011 LASP
Outline
 Customer growth and awareness
 Solar Cycle
 Space Weather types and impacts
• Solar Flares (R Scale)
• Radiation Storms (S Scale)
• Geomagnetic Storms (G Scale)
(Alert and Warning Procedures)
 Recent developments
Feb 16-17, 2011
140
Customer Growth
SWPC Product Subscription Service
14000
13000
12000
Sunspot Number
11000
100
10000
9000
Solar Maximum
80
8000
7000
60
6000
5000
40
4000
3000
20
Number of Customers
120
2000
1000
0
0
Solar Minimum
Customers
Solar Cycle
SES Satellite
Inmarsat
FEMA
Boeing
FAA
Alaska DOT
Chrysler
Motorola
British Petroleum
America
Multiple Electric Utility
Companies
Washington St. Dept of
Transportation
John Deere &
Caterpillar, Inc.
Major Airlines – UAL,
AA, CO, Delta
United Launch
Alliance
White House Office of
Communications
Sample Recent Registrants
www.swpc.noaa.gov/alerts/index.html
Status of Solar Cycle
• Solar minimum in December 2008
• Solar Cycle 24 now well underway
• Cycle 24 maximum forecast - May 2013
• Large geomagnetic storms can occur with smaller cycles
• The largest geomagnetic storms on record occurred
during smaller than average cycles
1859 Storm
1921 Storm
May 1921 Geomagnetic Storm
13◦
Apia, Samoa, 13 degrees south
Locations for which aurora were reported on 14–15 May 1921 –
Silverman, et al.
Oct 3003 – A “Near” Worst Case Scenario
NOAA Space Weather Scales
http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/NOAAscales/
Radio Blackouts
Radiation Storms
Geomagnetic Storms
Geomagnetic Storms
Solar Flares (Radio Blackouts – R Scale)
ALERT: X-ray Flux exceeded M5
Issue Time: 2000 Jul 14 0918 UTC
Current X-ray Flux: X2.1
Optical Class: 3b
Location: N11W04
Region Number: 9077
NOAA Scale: R3 - Strong
Image from NASA SOHO Satellite
Solar Flares Radio Blackouts (The Impacts)
- A violent explosion in the Sun's
atmosphere with an energy equivalent
of a hundred million hydrogen bombs.
Degradation of communication
• Arrival: 8 minutes from Sun
to Earth
• Duration: minutes to 3 hours
• Daylight-side impact
GPS Network
Image from NASA SOHO Satellite
Communications
Radar
Ground and Space-based
Communication Center:
07Sep05 1800Z: “Solar activity severely impacted all
HF comms. Higher frequencies utilized with little
effect. 24 aircraft position reports and NYC ATC
messages were relayed via sat-voice between 1040Z
and 1939Z.. Severe operational impact.”
“The flare resulted in
significant impacts to
the network of air
traffic control radars in
Canada, causing false
targets and
interference in the N/S
direction on scales of
approximately 150
miles in length.”
Solar Flare (Radio Burst) Impact on GPS – 6 Dec 2006
~10 mins
Solar Radiation Storms (S Scale)
• Arrival: 30 minutes
to several hours
• Duration: hours to
days
Impacts…
• Satellite Operations (range from loss of
data to loss of satellite)
• Aviation (communications and exposure
concerns)
• High latitude HF comm outage
Airlines avoid polar routes
during Radiation Storms
due to both exposure and
communications concerns
Low latitude concerns
also exist:
ALERT: Solar Radiation Alert at
Flight Altitudes Conditions Began:
2003 Oct 28 2113 UTC
Comment: Satellite measurements
indicate unusually high levels of
ionizing radiation, coming from the
sun. This may lead to excessive
radiation doses to air travelers at
Corrected Geomagnetic Latitudes
above 35 degrees north, or south.
(Federal Aviation Administration)
Satellite Industry Impacts
• Satellite may be rendered useless
• Memory impacts can cause loss of control
• Serious noise in image data
• Star-trackers unable to locate sources
• Permanent damage to solar panels
Mitigating actions following solar storm warnings:
• Instruments and/or spacecraft turned off or safed
• Maneuver planning (avoid any maneuvers during solar
activity)
• Anomaly assessments
• Orbit determination accuracy
• Increased spacecraft and instrument monitoring for health
and safety during solar storms
Geomagnetic Storms (G Scale)
Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs)
create geomagnetic storms
WATCH: Geomagnetic A-index of 50 or greater predicted
Issue Time: 2001 Sep 24 1732 UTC
Valid for UTC Day: 2001 Sep 26
NOAA Scale: Periods reaching the G3 (Strong) Level Likely
Modeling the Eruption
Geomagnetic Storms – Near-term Forecast
CME impacts ACE spacecraft
• Arrival: ~20 – 90 hours
• Duration: hours to a day
• Creates Ionospheric storms
WARNING: Geomagnetic K-index
of 7 or greater expected
Valid From: 2001 Sep 30 0230 UTC
Valid To: 2001 Sep 30 1500 UTC
NOAA Scale: G3 or greater - Strong
to Extreme
Geomagnetic Storm Impacts
Impacts from geomagnetic
storms are wide-ranging
with potentially significant
consequences.
Satellite Operations
Manned Spaceflight
GPS
Power Grid Operations
Aircraft Operations
GPS IMPACT – U.S. Federal Aviation Administration (FAA)
Wide Area Augmentation System (WAAS)
METERS
• Intense geomagnetic and ionosphere storms occur on 29 and 30 Oct, 2003
• Acceptable vertical error limits were exceeded for 15 and 11-hour periods
Impacts on Electric Power Grid
• CME impacts Earth’s magnetic field
• Fluctuations generate electric fields on
Earth. These geomagnetically induced
currents (GIC) can flow into power lines and
transformers
• Leads to transformer saturation and
over-heating, voltage drops, transformer
damage, grid collapse
(Credit: K. Turnbull / J. Wild / ESA)
Vulnerability of US grid
•
•
•
•
Northern latitude, (location of auroral electrojet during geomagnetic storms)
Areas of relatively high resistive igneous rock
Very high voltage interconnected transmission network
Proximity to oceans (conductivity of ocean salt water)
Worst Case…
45
50 Degree
Degree Geomagnetic
Geomagnetic Disturbance
Disturbance Scenario
Scenario
…but is it a 50 year storm…100 year…or more?
Significant grid problems
have occurred…
Information Notice No. 90-42:
FAILURE OF ELECTRICAL POWER EQUIPMENT
DUE TO SOLAR MAGNETIC DISTURBANCES
Specific events occurred at the Three Mile Island
Unit 1, Hope Creek Unit 1, and Salem Unit 1
nuclear power plants. …inspection of the generator
step-up transformer… severe overheating, melted low
-voltage service connections in phases A and C,
and insulation discoloration in phase B. On
September 19, at Salem Unit 2 nuclear power
plant, a second solar storm damaged the generator
step-up transformer.
Sep 1990
October 31 - Sun storm causes problems for Swedish power
system. The solar storm has caused technical glitches in
Sweden's power system in the past few days and may be to
blame for a blackout that affected 50,000 people on
Thursday, October 30.
Transformer winding failure
Transformer exit-lead
overheating
“Halloween Storms” Oct 2003
Nuclear plant operators around the Nation respond…
U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission
Power Reactor Status Report, Oct 30, 2003
Unit
Power
Reason or Comment
Salem 1
(New Jersey)
80
REDUCED POWER DUE TO SOLAR MAGNETIC
DISTURBANCES
Braidwood 2
(Illinois)
90
COASTDOWN TO REFUELING OUTAGE REVIEWING
SYSTEM PLANNING OPERATING GUIDE FOR
SOLAR FLARE RESPONSE
Duane Arnold
(Iowa)
94
ELECTRICAL CAPABILITY NO D/G OR SWITCHYARD
WORK DUE TO SOLAR FLARE RESPONSE
Point Beach 1
(Wisconsin)
83
INCREASING POWER FOLLOWING A DECREASE IN
POWER DUE TO GRID GEO-MAGNETIC
DISTURBANCES
Arkansas Nuclear 1
(Arkansas)
100
HOLDING OFF ON SWITCHYARD MAINTENANCE
FOR SOLAR FLARE RESPONSE
Palo Verde 1
(Arizona)
98
T-HOT LIMITED TAKING EXTRA READINGS ON
PLANT COMPUTER DUE TO SOLAR FLARE
RESPONSE
River Bend 1
(Louisiana)
100
NO D/G OR RELAY TESTING DUE TO SOLAR FLARE
RESPONSE
Meeting Our Nation’s Needs
Space weather being addressed at all level of
government.
Government working on ways forward to
develop and implement mitigation strategies
to safeguard critical infrastructure from the
impacts of severe space weather.
• Secure High-voltage Infrastructure for
Electricity from Lethal Damage Act
(SHIELD Act) (11 Feb, 2011)
• Meeting at White House with National
Security Staff and OSTP (18 Feb, 2011)
• Op Ed on space weather by Chief Science
Advisors - John Holdren (OSTP) and Sir John
Beddington (UK Government) (10 Mar,2011)
• Electric Infrastructure Security Summit
(EISS) in Capitol building (11 Apr, 2011)
NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center
Boulder, Colorado
Space Weather Products and Services
– Watches; The conditions are favorable for
occurrence
– Warnings; disturbances that are imminent,
expected in the near future with high probability
– Alerts; observed conditions meeting or exceeding
thresholds
www.spaceweather.gov
“It would appear that during an
extreme space weather storm, we
may have to resort to messenger
pigeons as our primary means of
communication!!!”
FEMA rep…
Homing (Racing) Pigeons
Pigeons have internal biological compasses composed of the
mineral magnetite which is affected by geomagnetic storms.
Pigeon racers will not release their
birds when G1-G5 geomagnetic
storm conditions are observed or
predicted.
• “The year 2000 which has been very brutal for young
bird racing here in North America and Europe
coinciding with the high of the cycle of solar radiation in
2000” – Alberta Classic
• Technology evolution
• Interconnection/Interdependency
• Reliance on space-based systems
A Nation vulnerable to hazardous space weather – A Nation
increasingly reliant on space weather services
Additional Slides
Space weather affects many forms of radio
communications. The following is a sample of impacts
reported to the Space Weather Prediction Center:
• Air traffic operators reported minor to severe impacts on HF
communications every day between October 26 and November
05, 2003. Communications were so poor on October 30 that
additional staff was necessary to handle air traffic. The New York
Communication Center reported “severe operational impact.”
• Nav Canada reported satellite relay of VHF air traffic messages
were periodically lost in October 2003.
• The Satellite Operations Control Center (SOCC) at Suitland,
MD reported loss of the Search and Rescue receiver signals in
Nov. 2004. The signal strength was flagged red intermittently (up
to 20 minutes). The cause was solar flare radio bursts.
Examples of radio communication impacts…cont:
• During strong geomagnetic activity in Dec 2006, Nav Canada
issued a Notice to Airman(NOTAM) restricting polar and other high
latitude aviation routes for a five-day period due to communication
problems.
• MacRelay is responsible for communication links with aircraft and
ships supporting the United States Antarctic Program. MacRelay
experienced over 130 hours of High Frequency communication
blackout during the October – November, 2003 solar activity.
• During several days in June 2005, space weather caused
widespread interruption to radio communications. The impacts hit
regions in north China hardest, but the event still reportedly
extended to the far south.
Timeline – 15 Feb, 2011
Sunspot 1158 unleashed the strongest solar flare
in more than four years.
A full halo (Earth-directed coronal mass ejection
was observed on coronagraph imagery.
The Forecast
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field
is expected to be predominately quiet on February 17. An
increase to unsettled to active conditions, with a chance for
minor storm periods is expected late on the 17th into the 18th.
The increased activity is forecast due to the expected arrival
of the CME associated with the X2 flare that occurred on
15/0156Z.
What is space weather?
Space weather refers to the variable conditions on the Sun and in
the space environment that can influence the performance and
reliability of space and groundbased technological systems, as
well as endanger life or health.
Electromagnetic
Radiation
Ionosphere
Energetic
Charged Particles
Magnetic Field
(Magnetized Plasma)
Magnetosphere
SWPC product distribution
WECC Reliability
Coordinator, Vancouver
Midwest ISO, St. Paul
WECC Loveland, CO
SWPC G2 Alerts and
Warning dissemination
NYISO
Percent Loss of EHV (Extra High Voltage) transformation
capacity by state for a 4800 nT/min geomagnetic storm
threat environment.
Regions with high percentages could experience long
duration outages that could extend multiple years.
Power systems in areas of igneous
rock (gray) are the most vulnerable
to the effects of intense
geomagnetic activity because the
high resistance of the igneous rock
encourages geomagnetically
induced currents (GICs) to flow in
the power transmission lines
situated above the rock. Shown in
cross-hatching are the auroral zone
and the extremes that the aurora
can reach during severe
disturbances such as March 13,
1989.
Credit: American Geophysical Union
Satellite communication problems
• Large solar flares often emit
across a broad range of the
electromagnetic spectrum,
including radio waves.
• Radio burst emissions during solar
flares can interfere with satellite
communications.
SATOPS Morning Report
Wednesday, November 03, 2004.
GOES 12 at 0401z on November 3: SAR receiver signal
strength flagging red high intermittently. Engineer notified.
NOAA’s Search And Rescue Satellite Aided
Tracking (SARSAT) System impacted