S/2007/314
United Nations
Security Council
Distr.: General
29 May 2007
Original: English
United Nations Monitoring, Verification and
Inspection Commission
Note by the Secretary-General
The Secretary-General has the honour to transmit to the Security Council the
twenty-ninth quarterly report on the activities of the United Nations Monitoring,
Verification and Inspection Commission (UNMOVIC). It is submitted by the Acting
Executive Chairman of UNMOVIC in accordance with paragraph 12 of Security
Council resolution 1284 (1999).
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Twenty-ninth quarterly report on the activities of the
United Nations Monitoring, Verification and Inspection
Commission in accordance with paragraph 12 of
Security Council resolution 1284 (1999)
I. Introduction
1.
The present report, which is the twenty-ninth submitted in accordance with
paragraph 12 of Security Council resolution 1284 (1999), covers the activities of the
United Nations Monitoring, Verification and Inspection Commission (UNMOVIC)
during the period from 1 March to 31 May 2007.
II. Developments
2.
During the period under review, the Acting Executive Chairman continued the
practice of briefing the respective Presidents of the Security Council,
representatives of Member States and officials of the Secretariat on the activities of
UNMOVIC.
III. Other activities
Compendium of proscribed weapons programmes of Iraq
3.
The sanitized version of the compendium, with sensitive material
appropriately redacted, is on schedule for completion by early summer, to be placed
on the Commission’s website thereafter.
Small quantities of chemical and biological warfare agents
4.
There have been several well-known incidents worldwide in which biological
and chemical agents were acquired and used against unprotected populations by
non-State actors. The attacks, which varied in both the agents used and their
dispersion models, revealed that biological or chemical warfare agents used in small
quantities can be lethal, deeply alarm public opinion and caused a sharp increase in
security measures.
5.
It has been reported in the media recently that insurgents in Iraq have been
utilizing toxic industrial chemicals such as chlorine (combined with explosives for
dispersal) for the purpose of harming the unprotected population. Such attacks have
resulted in the killing of tens and injuring of hundreds of people throughout Iraq. To
date there have been at least 10 reported attacks using various quantities of chlorine,
while several other attempted attacks using chlorine and other toxic products have
reportedly been foiled by the security forces.
6.
Given the current security situation in Iraq, it is possible that some non-State
actors will continue to seek to acquire toxic agents or their chemical precursors in
small quantities. In addition to using the available supplies of chlorine spread
throughout Iraq, non-State actors could also seek to acquire other, more toxic agents
that are either indigenously produced or procured from abroad.
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7.
The possibility of this scenario is due to a number of factors in Iraq. One is the
existence of chemical weapons-related expertise in the country, with hundreds of
scientific and technical personnel having been involved in the past chemical
weapons programme. Another factor is related to the availability and possibility of
misuse of dual-use chemical production equipment previously monitored by the
Commission. Through satellite imagery, UNMOVIC has identified a number of
buildings and structures that used to contain such equipment that had been
demolished or damaged by 2004. The fate of this equipment, which can be utilized
for the production of small/single batches of chemical weapons agents or their
precursors, and the fate of equipment in buildings that remained intact is unknown.
A third factor is the existence of procurement networks, which could facilitate the
acquisition of precursors in quantities adequate for the production of small
quantities of chemical agents.
8.
UNMOVIC is refining its study on the issue of small quantities in both the
chemical and biological areas. The results are set out in the annex to the present
report.
IV. Other issues
Field offices
9.
In Baghdad, the two remaining UNMOVIC local staff, co-located with the
United Nations Assistance Mission for Iraq in the international zone, continued to
perform routine maintenance on the office support equipment that had been brought
to an area within the international zone from the former United Nations Canal
compound when it closed.
10. Two UNMOVIC technical experts visited the field office in Cyprus from 18 to
27 March to perform maintenance on the inspection and support equipment stored
there. The experts categorized the equipment, identified obsolete equipment, and
trained the field office staff on routine maintenance procedures.
Staffing
11. At the end of May 2007, UNMOVIC headquarters core staff at the
Professional level totalled 34. The staff are drawn from 19 nationalities; 7 are
women. Due to the continuing drawdown of UNMOVIC staff, the New York office
has consolidated its office space, resulting in lower operating costs.
Technical visits, meetings and workshops
12. UNMOVIC experts attended INTERPHEX 2007, which took place in New
York from 24 to 26 April. INTERPHEX is the largest showcase for new and
emerging pharmaceutical and biological manufacturing and processing equipment
and technologies. Products and equipment were available for “hands-on” access.
They included autoclaves; centrifuges; dispersing and mixing equipment; drying,
fermentation and reaction vessels; and filtration, milling and process control
equipment. The equipment and technologies displayed enable UNMOVIC experts to
remain up to date with the latest developments in the field.
13. At the invitation of the Non-Governmental Organization Committee on
Disarmament, Peace and Security and the Office for Disarmament Affairs, an
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UNMOVIC expert was invited to make a presentation on 19 April on technical
advances and field experiences for use in biological verification. In addition, the
same UNMOVIC expert was invited by the Center for Technology and Engineering
of the United States Government Accountability Office to discuss and make a
similar presentation on 3 May, in Washington, D.C.
14. An UNMOVIC staff member attended, at no cost to the organization, an
international meeting on the theme “Missile proliferation: new challenges and new
responses”, held on 2 May in Copenhagen. The meeting was organized by the
Danish Institute for International Studies to mark the twentieth anniversary of the
Missile Technology Control Regime. The UNMOVIC expert was invited to make a
presentation on the United Nations Special Commission/UNMOVIC experience in
disarmament and monitoring in the missile area.
15. From 22 to 25 May, an UNMOVIC expert attended the ninth Symposium on
Protection against Chemical and Biological Warfare Agents, held in Gothenburg,
Sweden. A presentation entitled “Experience from United Nations disarmament and
monitoring activities in Iraq” was given during the opening session. The symposium
was attended by nearly 1,000 participants and 100 exhibitors with interests in the
subject of chemical and biological warfare. The agenda for the symposium included
the detection and identification of chemical and biological agents, forensic analysis,
protection, filters and respirators, decontamination, developing technologies and
international operational standards in the field.
16. A hands-on training seminar was held in New York on 18 May for
headquarters technical staff on the rapid determination of the presence of microorganisms and biological toxins using new and sensitive immunological methods.
The new platform is easy to use, compatible with complex matrices and utilizes
ready-to-use reagents. Such a system would enhance the biological analysis and
detection capabilities of UNMOVIC.
Training
17. During the reporting period, UNMOVIC conducted a specialized missile
training course in Argentina from 26 February to 8 March. Eighteen experts from
the UNMOVIC roster, from 14 countries, participated in the course. Training
included the implementation of an improved missile verification system, as outlined
in the Commission’s earlier reports to the Security Council (S/2005/742 and
S/2007/106).
18. UNMOVIC is preparing the next training course for its roster personnel. The
course, designed to develop a better understanding of the technologies and
equipment involved in the operation of refineries and petrochemical plants is being
organized with the support of the Government of Qatar and will be held in Doha
from 9 to 21 June. It will be the third such multidisciplinary technology course (the
first such course was conducted in Canada, in October 2005, and the second, in
Romania, in October 2006). As part of the training programme, the participants will
visit a number of refinery and petrochemical complexes and conduct practical
exercises at facilities offered by the host country.
19. UNMOVIC is currently engaged in discussions with a number of Member
States (in particular, Argentina, Brazil, Germany and France) concerning future
training courses for UNMOVIC roster personnel to be held in their respective
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countries. The Commission is grateful to the Governments that have offered their
support for UNMOVIC training activities.
V. College of Commissioners
20. The UNMOVIC College of Commissioners convened its twenty-sixth regular
session in New York on 23 and 24 May. Observers from the International Atomic
Energy Agency (IAEA) and the Organization for the Prohibition of Chemical
Weapons also attended.
21. The Acting Executive Chairman briefed the College on the activities of
UNMOVIC since the last session and on planned activities for the next quarter.
22. The College welcomed three presentations: on imagery on chlorine and other
toxic chemical sites in Iraq; on satellite imagery; and on the preparations for the
archiving of UNMOVIC documents and related material.
23. The College further thanked the Acting Executive Chairman for his
comprehensive statement in which he outlined the remaining unresolved
disarmament issues in the current UNMOVIC assessment regarding items, materials
and capabilities with respect to Iraq. As a subsidiary organ of the Council,
UNMOVIC would be ready if so requested to make available to the Council its
technical advice on that matter. There was broad support for maintaining the unique
expertise and experience and the well-trained roster of inspectors that had been built
up over the past 16 years, even after the termination of the mandate of UNMOVIC.
However, it was acknowledged that a new source of funding needed to be sought, if
such expertise were to be kept. It was underlined that once dispersed, it would be
difficult and more costly to revive that expertise. It was agreed that it was important
to ensure an orderly termination of the Commission’s mandate once it was so
decided.
24. In accordance with paragraph 5 of resolution 1284 (1999), the Commissioners
were consulted on the contents of the present report.
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Appendix
The issue of small quantities of biological and chemical
warfare agents
Chemical area
1.
The United Nations Monitoring, Verification and Inspection Commission
(UNMOVIC) reported on the initial stage of the study of the issue of small
quantities in its report to the Security Council of February 2005 (S/2005/129). In
both the chemical and biological areas, the study was to identify any possible
proliferation implications from all the changes in post-2003 Iraq. Since that report,
all known chemical warfare agents and all dual-use compounds acquired and used
by Iraq for its past chemical weapons programme, including chlorine, were
considered. Other toxic chemicals that could be obtained as poisonous industrial
by-products, for example dioxins, which are not covered under the terms of Council
resolutions, were excluded from consideration.
2.
The interpretation of how small the “small quantities” of toxic chemicals
should be is complicated. Nevertheless, this question was approached based on the
UNMOVIC knowledge of Iraq’s chemical weapons activities, rather than on the
knowledge of chemical weapons-related programmes of other States possessors.
Iraq (and other States) in the past used such terms as “military significant quantity
of chemical weapons”. This term, however, does not have a universal definition
owing to differences in the military doctrines of States that have acquired chemical
weapons stockpiles. According to Iraq, it produced chemical weapons both for first
strikes and as retaliation weapons. Iraq declared the production of nearly 4,000 tons
of chemical weapons agents (for comparison, the chemical weapons stockpiles of
some other States possessors were about 10 times this quantity).
3.
The evaluation of small quantities of toxic agents for monitoring purposes
(well below the military significant level), has been conducted only in an empirical
way. Such an evaluation was made based on the estimated quantities used by Iraq in
the past for research and development purposes. For example, Iraq declared that its
past research and development projects at the main chemical weapons production
site, Muthanna State Establishment, resulted in the synthesis of chemical weapons
agents or their precursors within the range of a few grams to a few hundred
kilograms. Therefore, the term “small quantities” of chemical weapons agents in the
case of Iraq should be understood to mean quantities within the range of grams to
kilograms, rather than tons.
4.
Four critical elements related to the possible acquisition of toxic agents in
small quantities were identified. The first is production capability, comprised of raw
materials, equipment and associated sites/locations. Large-scale production of
chemical weapons agents or their immediate precursors is usually associated with
industrial-scale plants with specific process and physical configurations. However,
small quantities of such chemicals can be produced at nuclear, biological and
chemical laboratories, analytical and quality control laboratories, commercial
research and development centres, universities or pilot-scale units installed at both
chemical and non- and chemical facilities. Small-scale process equipment used for
chemical weapons synthesis does not usually require any specific features, since it is
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mostly standard glass equipment. It can easily be destroyed, replaced or
disassembled, if necessary.
5.
The second element deals with the possibility of finding pre-1991 chemical
munitions in Iraq. In its twenty-sixth report to the Security Council (S/2006/701),
UNMOVIC a noted that various data on past production, filling and storage of Iraqi
chemical weapons suggest that any remaining mustard-filled artillery shells could
still contain viable agent, as Iraq consistently produced mustard of high purity. It is
unlikely that any rocket warheads filled with nerve agents would still contain viable
agent, as they were less robust than the artillery shells and their content of lesser
purity was subject to degradation. However, because of the varying quality of the
nerve agent produced, it is possible that, even degraded, it can still pose a health
hazard associated with the toxic effects of chemical agents or their degradation
products.
6.
The third element is the procurement, both legitimate and illegitimate, of small
quantities of dual-use chemicals or even chemical weapons agents. The quantities of
dual-use chemicals traded worldwide for research and development purposes, unlike
quantities at the level of industrial-scale trade, are not as highly regulated
internationally. The worldwide trade of small quantities has unknown trends
involving comprehensive procurement networks. The networks are largely
comprised of private individuals — scientists who are capable of synthesizing
chemicals on demand in their own laboratories. The shipment of small quantities of
dual-use chemicals by individual suppliers, even via commercial courier companies,
does not pose any significant difficulty, given that the name and basic properties of
the chemical being shipped in the packaging documents can be falsified. It should
be noted that, since March 2003, neither Member States nor Iraq have been
providing UNMOVIC with notifications of the sale or supply to Iraq of dual-use
items as required by the export/import monitoring mechanism created by Security
Council resolution 1051 (1996). Council resolution 715 (1991) requires that dualuse items be under monitoring.
7.
The fourth element related to the acquisition of small quantities is the
proliferation of chemical weapons knowledge. Iraq possessed an extensive
chemical-weapons-related cadre of scientists experienced not only in production but
also in the delivery and dissemination of chemical weapons agents. The number and
current location of the remaining chemical weapons experts in Iraq are not known to
UNMOVIC. This factor, combined with the technical know-how of chemical
weapons production technologies that could still be available in Iraq, and the
potential interest of non-State actors, poses a proliferation risk in terms of small
quantities of toxic agents (for both their acquisition and use). In its addendum of
March 2005, the United States-led Iraq Survey Group, searching for weapons of
mass destruction in Iraq, concluded that while the danger remains that insurgents
may seek Iraqi expertise, the subset of individuals who possess the unique weapons
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a
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During the war between Iraq and the Islamic Republic of Iran, Iraqi regular military units in
areas of operation received and used both conventional and chemical weapons. Because of the
rapid relocation of many of these units after the war and the dozens of locations involved in the
handling of the weapons, there is a possibility that chemical munitions became inadvertently
mixed with conventional weapons. Moreover, some chemical munitions filled with chemical
warfare agents did not differ in their markings from standard conventional weapons, which
made their identification as chemical munitions problematic, not only for United Nations
inspectors and later personnel of the Iraq Survey Group, but also for Iraq.
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of mass destruction skills of proliferation concern is numerically low. But it should
be noted that there are a large number of scientists who have been associated with
Iraq’s chemical weapons programme, in the UNMOVIC database. Nevertheless, the
Iraq Survey Group concluded that because a single individual can advance certain
weapons of mass destruction activities, it remains an important concern.
8.
Unlike the military use of chemical weapons agents, the application of toxic
compounds by non-State actors does not require special delivery means such as
chemical bombs, artillery projectiles, spray tanks, rocket warheads or missile
warheads. Primitive devices, such as plastic bags, smoke generators and aerosol
cans, filled with toxic compounds, have been known to be used against an
unprotected population by terrorists in the past. Also, it cannot be excluded that
pre-1991 chemical munitions, especially mustard projectiles, if found, could be
used, knowingly or unknowingly, by non-State actors in Iraq.
9.
By its design, the chemical monitoring system implemented by the
Commission in Iraq was capable of dealing with a number of key tasks. It involved
the verification of Iraq’s declared activities on both the industrial and research and
development scale, involving the monitoring of dual-use chemicals, equipment and
technologies. In addition, the verification of the end use of such dual-use items,
irrespective of their origin, was implemented through a combination of the
export/import monitoring mechanism (notifications from Iraq and Member States)
and on-site inspections.
10. The ongoing monitoring and verification system implemented in Iraq under
Security Council resolution 715 (1991) aimed to deter and/or detect the diversion of
industrial-scale dual-use capabilities for prohibited purposes. This task was
implemented through both the monitoring of declared activities and the examination
or verification of information about activities that had been provided to the
Commission by intelligence, found by inspectors, or identified through other
sources. During the period from 1993 to 1998, and a few months in 2002 and 2003,
when the monitoring system was implemented in Iraq, the Commission was able to
conclude with a high level of confidence that no diversion of industrial-scale dualuse items for proscribed activities had occurred. A similar conclusion could be
drawn with regard to Iraq’s smaller-scale dual-use capabilities (such as research and
development), which had also been subject to monitoring and inspections. The
export/import monitoring mechanism provided an additional assurance that Iraq was
complying with its obligations not to acquire items and materials proscribed to it,
for both research and development and industrial-scale chemical activities.
11. However, Iraq’s declarations under Security Council resolution 715 (1991) and
export/import monitoring notifications under resolution 1051 (1996), have
thresholds below which declarations are not required. For dual-use chemicals
covered by the monitoring plan (including chlorine and other industrial compounds)
which could be used for chemical weapons purposes but also have wide commercial
applications, there is a declaration threshold of 1 ton or more of production,
processing, consumption, storage and export/import per year, at a specific site. The
declaration of quantities below 1 ton is not required under the ongoing monitoring
and verification plan. However, information on such smaller quantities was
previously declared based on practical arrangements between the United Nations
Special Commission and Iraq. According to that arrangement, all production
activities above 100 kilograms (kg) per year were declared. All research and
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development activities involving dual-use chemicals in quantities of 50 kg and more
per year were also declared. According to the 2002 semi-annual monitoring
declarations provided by Iraq, about 90 per cent of the activities involving dual-use
chemicals fell in the range of between 50 kg and 1 ton. The ongoing monitoring and
verification plan also provides that all mixtures and forms of dual-use chemicals
(i.e., those permitted to Iraq, but subject to United Nations monitoring) in all
possible concentrations are declarable.
12. Under the terms of the export/import monitoring mechanism, there is a
quantity-independent approach requiring that UNMOVIC be notified of dual-use
chemicals. No quantities of any prohibited chemicals can be procured by Iraq unless
authorized by UNMOVIC. b The export or import of dual-use chemicals should be
reported regardless of quantity. However, according to the 2001 revised version of
the export/import lists, mixtures with less than 10 per cent of dual-use chemicals are
exempted from the notification mechanism. This has implications from the
standpoint of verification of the acquisition of small quantities of dual-use
chemicals. Mixtures containing dual-use chemicals are usually easier to produce and
then to separate at a small scale rather than at an industrial scale, since the
technological parameters of such separation can be easily controlled. Additionally,
the exemption of mixtures with less than 10 per cent of dual-use chemicals does not
allow for the cross-checking of information from both Iraq and the foreign supplier.
13. The current versions of the lists of chemicals covered by the export/import
monitoring mechanism and those covered by the ongoing monitoring and
verification plan are slightly different from the export/import lists, which were
updated in 2001. As a result of the convening of a panel of international experts to
examine the issue of revising the lists, certain chemicals, for example chlorine, were
removed from the export/import lists, but no changes were made in respect to the
chemicals listed under the ongoing monitoring and verification plan.
14. With respect to equipment, according to both the ongoing monitoring and
verification plan and the export/import monitoring mechanism, certain thresholds
are applicable for the declaration or notification of dual-use chemical process
equipment. For example, a 50 litre threshold has been set for certain chemical
reactor vessels. However, inspectors used a practical approach for monitoring dualuse process equipment installed in Iraq’s facilities, where important equipment was
identified and tagged, irrespective of their capacity or other specifications (such as
material of construction). In general, the monitoring of chemical process equipment
allowed inspectors to obtain additional information on activities involving dual-use
chemicals at the particular site.
15. The past implementation of the ongoing monitoring and verification plan in
the chemical area in Iraq allowed the monitoring of small-scale activities
(production, processing, consumption, storage and export/import) involving dualuse chemicals, equipment and technologies. The ongoing monitoring and
verification plan also has the flexibility to address the new factors that have
emerged in Iraq since 2003, given the set of the rights allocated by the Security
Council to the United Nations inspectors, especially the right of immediate and
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b
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The ongoing monitoring and verification plan has two lists of chemicals; List A are dual-use
chemicals permitted to Iraq but subject to declaration and monitoring, while List B are those
proscribed to Iraq. However, the plan lays out procedures for Iraq to request exemptions from
List B if it can make a sufficient case for their import.
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unconditional access to a site, location or vehicle that might be suspected of
involvement in undeclared/prohibited activities, as well as to personnel and
documents.
16. There are new factors to consider in the post-2003 Iraq, which are related to
the small quantities issue. The first factor relates to the probable increase in the
number and scope of legitimate research and development activities involving small
quantities of dual-use chemicals, including their procurement from abroad. In the
past, Iraq was largely isolated from the international scientific community and
therefore the number and scope of such activities remained restricted. An additional
factor relates to the change of ownership of industry in Iraq. All institutions,
including joint ventures and private companies in Iraq previously declared by Iraq
as engaged in activities with dual-use chemicals or equipment on any scale had been
either State-controlled or closely supervised by the State authorities and monitored
by United Nations inspectors. This included the food, petrochemical, fertilizer,
pesticide and explosives industries. Governmental control over non-State-owned
establishments similar to that under the previous regime may no longer be in place.
Therefore, it may be difficult for Iraq’s authorities to collect a complete set of data
on activities in the chemical area in the country without appropriate national
regulations and/or requirements on its facilities and other entities. Additional
sources of information regarding export/import activities on, for example,
equipment and material as well as other information would be needed by the
national authorities.
Biological area
17. Biological warfare agents may produce mass casualties in humans under
certain conditions. The expression “small quantity of weapons of mass destruction”
is open to debate. However, for this analysis, it is assumed to be the smallest
quantity of biological agent that is capable of inflicting significant damage if
disseminated in an efficient way.
18. There are only a few reported actual attacks with small quantities of biological
warfare agents. Of these, two were bioterror and five biocrime incidents, which
resulted in multiple casualties. Several other cases that resulted in casualties were
individual assassinations or assassination attempts using biological agents or toxins,
which are not included in this analysis.
19. With the exception of the so-called anthrax letters incident in the United States
of America in 2001, all cases of bioterror/biocrime attacks that resulted in multiple
casualties used agents that were not typical biological warfare agents. The agents
used were mostly pathogenic micro-organisms available to the perpetrator through
their profession and/or study.
20. Two biological warfare agents, botulinum toxin and ricin, were used in several
unsuccessful bioterror attacks. In most of the incidents, it was difficult to ascertain
if biological agents and/or toxins were used deliberately even in the cases with
multiple casualties. Furthermore, it was often difficult to trace the source of agent
and/or perpetrator. For example, in 1984, the deliberate contamination of food
(known as the Oregon case) was not uncovered for more than a year after the actual
incident, when the leader of a cult voluntarily admitted its involvement in the
deliberate release. The perpetrator of the anthrax letters in the United States has yet
to be found and there has been a lot of conflicting information published about the
quality of the anthrax powder and the identity of the possible perpetrator(s).
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21. It is widely believed that non-State actors can obtain biological agents and/or
toxins from countries with biological weapons potential or by isolation from natural
sources. It is also believed that if they involve personnel with some training and
widely available equipment, and that the agents are used against highly populated
areas, they may have devastating effects. However, a careful analysis of the
bioterror attacks by the cult Aum Shinrikyo leads to a different conclusion.
• Aum Shinrikyo had at least four years time and considerable financial
resources and well-equipped laboratories to support its biological projects, but
it failed to inflict a single casualty despite about 10 attempts to disseminate
botulinum toxin and anthrax in densely inhabited areas of Tokyo.
• For the project, they recruited qualified people with at least a graduate level of
training in microbiology and molecular biology. The head of the cult’s
bioterror activities was a molecular biologist.
• The cult’s biological team attempted to isolate toxigenic clostridium botulinum
bacteria from natural sources without success. Their best isolate did not
produce enough toxin to kill experimental animals. In addition, the cult failed
to obtain a sample of ebola in 1992.
• The cult’s members also tried to obtain biological-weapons-related knowledge
and material from outside of Japan. Despite considerable financial resources,
this attempt also failed.
• The cult’s members attempted to buy coxiella burnetii (the causal agent of
Q fever) from a Japanese scientist, but he declined to provide the microorganism.
• Their biologists were not able to prepare enough concentrated slurry of
bacillus anthracis or disperse it in an efficient way, as the dissemination device
clogged and it produced a very large particle size. Additionally, they had only
produced a harmless, non-pathogenic strain of bacillus anthracis.
22. Except for the anthrax letters case in the United States in 2001, the amounts of
biological agents or toxins used in bioterror/biocrime attacks are not openly
available. In the United States anthrax case, the letter sent to one addressee
contained approximately 1 to 2 grams of powder containing bacillus anthracis
spores. It is assumed that the other letters possibly contained about the same amount
of anthrax powder. Thus, the total amount of the anthrax powder used in the incident
may have been between 7 and 14 grams. This amount could have been prepared in
one batch using a bench-top fermenter with a total working volume of about
10 litres.
23. The most critical step in known bioterror/biocrime incidents is the acquisition
of biological agents or toxins. This acquisition is not as easy as it is widely
asserted. c Access to reference strains of relevant micro-organisms from culture
collections has been restricted and is now subject to regulation; as a consequence,
their acquisition has become more difficult.
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c
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The isolation of a disease causing micro-organism from natural sources is a complex task. For
example, in former known biological weapons programmes, it was necessary to evaluate
hundreds of strains of clostridium botulinum to obtain a strain with high toxin production. Ricin
may be obtained by isolation from natural sources; however, its use in small quantities will not
inflict multiple casualties unless it is repeatedly used against several individuals for
assassination.
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24. Small amounts of biological agents for bioterror/biocrime purposes can be
produced in research or diagnostic microbiology laboratories given the intent,
access to the material, equipment and technical know-how, although this is not
normal laboratory practice and might raise suspicions. The undeclared production of
small amounts of biological agents and/or toxins can be performed in such
laboratories at any time, while the possibility of detecting such production is rather
limited. The incidental finding of many petri dishes with growing cultures of some
pathogen relevant to bioterrorism may be indicative, if found in a diagnostic
laboratory when there is no epidemic of the disease caused by that agent. However,
in a research laboratory, such finding may have no value.
25. Small amounts of biological agent may be produced clandestinely in
laboratories built for legitimate purposes. Such clandestine activity could be found
through sampling and analysis. The monitoring agency must possess the necessary
capabilities of experts, sampling kits and laboratory analysis to assess whether a
laboratory could have been used for the production of biological threat agents.
26. It is difficult to maintain an efficient monitoring system based on the
continuity of knowledge regarding dual-use equipment that would be suitable for the
small-scale production of biological agents at the national level. Such equipment is
widely used in the microbiology, biochemistry, cell biology and molecular biology
laboratories in academia, industry and Government. The collection of data related to
the acquisition, transfer and utilization of this equipment at the national level would
certainly overload any monitoring regime with information. An alternative approach
would be if the manufacturers and sellers of such equipment were to adopt measures
necessary to ensure that only registered institutions with legitimate needs would be
able to acquire such equipment. Many manufacturers of sensitive technology
equipment (for example spray driers) have already adopted these measures.
27. The amounts of biological agent necessary to inflict mass casualties are not as
small as it is often presented in open sources. For mass casualties, a biological
attack requires the preparation of large volumes of raw materials that must be
processed in pilot or industrial-scale equipment. Results from tests of biological
munitions have shown that most biological agents will incapacitate or kill 50 per
cent of people in an area of 1 square kilometre if about 1 to 5 kg of these agents is
disseminated over this area evenly, with 100 per cent efficiency. For the preparation
of this amount of anthrax powder, for example, it would be necessary to prepare
1,000 litres of unconcentrated suspension of anthrax spores, which can be done in a
large fermentation vessel. Such an amount would require an industrial-scale
production fermenter that could not be easily concealed and the operation of which
would require specific experience and infrastructure support. In addition,
dissemination efficiency is not 100 per cent; more realistically, it is rarely over
10 per cent. Thus such an attack would require at least 10 kg of anthrax powder. To
be produced in one batch, this amount would require a very large fermenter, or a
number of successful batches of 1,000 litres.
28. UNMOVIC has established effective monitoring procedures, which could
identify the production of relatively small quantities of biological agents, provided
that fermenters of a volume of more than 10 litres are used. However, under certain
circumstances, work with even smaller quantities of biological threat agents can be
identified by sampling and analysis.
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29. The amounts of the final preparation of biological agents and toxins necessary
to inflict mass casualties may seem small. Their production, however, inevitably
requires pilot or industrial-scale operations. UNMOVIC has established an effective
system for monitoring such facilities.
30. Under certain conditions, multiple casualties can be deliberately caused by the
use of micro-organisms in quantities of around a gram and less. The use of some
agents may require the decontamination of buildings and the administration of
prophylactics to many potentially affected people.
31. It would not be feasible to monitor the small amount of biological agents that
may be produced in research or diagnostic laboratories (microbiology, biochemistry,
molecular biology or cellular biology) unless a very intrusive monitoring regime
with a high-frequency presence of inspectors, coupled with on-site sampling and
analysis, were employed.
32. Such amounts of biological agent may also be produced in dedicated
clandestine laboratories and the monitoring authority can, upon finding such
laboratories, assess their capabilities and identify whether a particular laboratory
was involved in the production of biological agent. UNMOVIC has improved its
capabilities for assessing whether a biological agent was produced in a particular
laboratory, by now having access to the forensic microbiology capabilities of its
international network of reference laboratories. This capability can assist in the
genetic identification of micro-organisms and can enable the tracing of its source.
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