Introduction to Space Weather Program
D.N. Baker
University of Colorado, Boulder
“Change of weather is the discourse of fools.”
-Thomas Fuller
“Don’t knock the weather; nine-tenths of the people couldn’t start a
conversation if it didn’t change once in a while.”
-Kin Hubbard
“Space Weather” refers to conditions on the sun and in the solar wind,
magnetosphere, ionosphere, and thermosphere that can influence the
performance and reliability of space-borne and ground-based technological
systems and endanger human life and health. Adverse conditions in the
space environment can cause disruption of satellite operations,
communications, navigation, and electronic power grids, leading to a
panoply of socio-economic losses.
National Space Weather Program
Strategic Plan (March 1995)
Sun-Earth Relationships
Understanding of Sun-Earth Connections
Sunspots and Magnetic Storms
Major Magnetic Storms: 1932-2000
Annual Sunspot Number: 1930-2000
Different parts of the solar cycle contribute to different types of
activity that can adversely affect technology and humans.
Yohkoh Soft X-rays:
The 11-Year Solar Activity Cycle
Earth’s Space Environment
The Solar Wind
(Interplanetary Medium)
The Magnetosphere
Magnetospheric Current Systems
Bow
Shock
Cusp
Solar Wind
SOHO: Ultraviolet Picture of the Sun
TRACE: Detailed Solar Structure
The Disturbed Solar Wind: Coronal Mass
Ejections (CMEs)
• Occur most often near the
peak of the Sun’s 11-year
activity cycle
• Propel >109 tons of matter
into interplanetary space
• Can travel at speeds as
high as 1700 km/s
• Drive interplanetary shocks
• Can trigger geomagnetic
storms when they impact
Earth’s magnetosphere
Coronal Mass Ejection
CME Relative to the Earth
The size of Earth
compared to the
size of a large
Coronal Mass
Ejection from the
sun
Courtesy SDAC, NASA Goddard
CME-Earth Impact
Space Environment
Effects
spacecraft
(a) Single Event Upset Mechanism
Direct Ionization
ion track
electronics box
penetrating radiation
sensitive region
charge collected in
this region during
particle transit can
trigger a change of
state of the
memory
induced ionization along
the particle track
Background Produced by Solar Energetic
Particles
SOHO – EIT, 2000/07/14 @ 13:28 UT
Geomagnetic Storm—March 1991
Impact of Solar Flares During March 1991
Satellite
Effects
MARECS-A
Satellite failure
INTELSAT 602
GOES 7
Permanent power degradation
(Decrease of satellite lifetime by 2-3 years)
TDRSS
INTELSAT
CRRES
Single Event Upsets
Soft errors
(Increase from 1 per day to 10-20 per day)
DOD
Spacecraft charging
Deep dielectric charging
DMSP
NOAA 11
Loss of automatic attitude control
NORAD
Satellite drag
(Loss of 200 vehicles from catalogue)
The Earth’s Radiation Belts
Contours of the omnidirectional flux
(particles per square centimeter per
second) of protons with energies
greater than 10 MeV
Contours of the omnidirectional flux
of electrons with energies greater
than 0.5 MeV
UOSAT-2 Memory Upsets
Space Environment
Effects
spacecraft
(a) Single Event Upset Mechanism
Direct Ionization
ion track
electronics box
penetrating radiation
sensitive region
sensitive component
floating circuit trace can
collect charge and
discharge
charge buried in
insulator can discharge
(b) Deep-Dielectric Charging
charge collected in
this region during
particle transit can
trigger a change of
state of the
memory
induced ionization along
the particle track
Star Tracker Anomalies at GEO
Baker et al. (1987)
High-Energy Electrons: Deep-Dielectric
Charging
1. Electrons bury themselves in the insulator
2. Electrons slowly leak out of the insulator
3. Influx of electrons increases to levels
higher than the leakage rate
4. Electrons build up faster than they leak
off
5. Discharge (electrical spark) that damages
or destroys the material
ANIK Spacecraft Failures
Anomalies Due to Dielectric Charging
Probability of
discharges goes up
dramatically with
increasing electron
fluence.
surface interactions
photoemission
Space Environment
Effects
(c) Surface Charging
incident particle
surface currents
backscattered
secondary particles
spacecraft
(a) Single Event Upset Mechanism
Direct Ionization
ion track
electronics box
penetrating radiation
sensitive region
sensitive component
floating circuit trace can
collect charge and
discharge
charge buried in
insulator can discharge
(b) Deep-Dielectric Charging
charge collected in
this region during
particle transit can
trigger a change of
state of the
memory
induced ionization along
the particle track
SCATHA (Reagan et al., 1981)
Surface Charging: SCATHA Spacecraft
Local Time Plot of Various Satellite Disruptions
and Anomalies
March 1989: Hydro Quebec Blackout
0745 UT
March 1989: Transformer Failure
Courtesy John Kappenman, Metatech
March 1991: Ground-Induced Currents
The Active Sun: July 2000
SOHO-EIT, 2000/07/14 @ 07:00 UT
Close-up from SOHO EIT Sensor
Bastille Day 2000 Event (2 hours later)
Shock-induced Global Auroral Brightening
at 14:40 and 17:04 UT on July 15, 2000
Bastille Day Storm
POLAR: Another View of the Aurora
Courtesy John Kappenman, Metatech
July 15, 2000: Auroral Currents and GICs
Plot of ground-level
magnetic field
disturbances at time
14:38:15 UT on July 15,
2000
Thermospheric Heating and Satellite Drag
Long Term Variability
• Climate (Space, Earth) and its
causes (natural, anthropogenic)
• Solar-Climate relationships and
Applications
Space Weather and Airlines
• Passengers feel relatively safe when flying on
747’s and comparable aircraft, but the
aircraft’s safe operation has aspects the
passenger seldom knows about.
• Navigation can be a problem
– GPS signals can be scrambled
– radio signals from LORAN and OMEGA systems
can be distorted and made unusable
– zones along critical air routes can be made
unsafe for use
Courtesy Gene Cameron, United Airlines
Arctic Radio HF
Polar Route
Radio Coverage
Arctic Radio VHF
Edmonton Ctr
Winnipeg
Minneapolis Ctr
Chicago Ctr
Polar Routes
North Pole
Courtesy Gene Cameron, United Airlines
Polar 1
Polar 2
HKG
Polar 3
Polar 4
Courtesy Gene Cameron, United Airlines
Chicago
Space Weather Has Many Forms
Civilian Spacecraft at Geostationary Orbit
News Accounts of Galaxy-4 Failure
It is not always
possible to prove
that conditions in
the space
environment cause
problems with
communication
devices such as cell
phones and pagers,
but it is one
explanation.
Galaxy-4 Satellite Failure
April-May 1998 Special
Analysis Interval
SAMPEX and POLAR
Popular Books About Space Weather
Scientific Themes
Three basic themes can be used to span the activities:
Quests
Campaigns
– 1. Long-Term
Variability of SunEarth phenomena.
– 2. Cross-coupling
between Long-Term
Variability and
Space Weather
establish Space
Climate.
– 3. Limits/Extremes
including examples
from other planets.
Advanced Numerical Simulations
NASA: Living With a Star
Possible Geospace Network
and Missions of Opportunity
Geospace Missions Network
Radiation Environment Mission - GTO
Ionospheric Mission - LEO
Geospace Imaging Mission - Polar
Missions of Opportunity
SET - GTO
SDO - GEO
Leveraged Missions
C/NOFS - CINDI - LEO
DMSP, GOES, POES, GPS
POES, NPOES, METOP
CISM Vision:
Center for Integrated Space
Weather Modeling
GOAL: Create a physics-based numerical simulation model
that describes the space environment from the Sun to the
Earth.
USES:
• Scientific tool for increased understanding of the complex
space environment.
• Specification and forecast tool for space weather prediction.
• Education tool for teaching about the space environment.
MANDATE: in the National Space Weather Program plan
CISM Institutions
Dartmouth
College
Boston
University
University of
California
NCSA
Stanford
University
University of Colorado
NCAR/HAO NOAA/SEC
Alabama A&M
University
SAIC
University of
Texas, El Paso
Rice University
Knowledge Transfer
• Transition to Forecasting Tools – NOAA/SEC and Air Force
Weather Agency.
• Knowledge Transfer within Space Physics Community –
community access to models.
• Industrial Partners – Lockheed Martin, Ball Aerospace,
Boeing, Metatech and NOAA/SEC’s user community
• Educational knowledge transfer – disseminate educational
information and materials to non-CISM institutions
CISM Integrated Timeline
Code and Model
Development
Version I
Version II
Version III
Validation/
Assimilation
Knowledge
Transfer
Education
Faculty
Professional
Development
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
MOD
NRC
MOD
DREA
NSF
NASA
NOAA
SCOSTEP
DOD
DOE
ESA
IKI
IZMIRAN
Sib-IZMIRAN
AARI
CNES
CAST
CMMP
INPE
EMBRATEL
ISAS
NASDA
STELAB
MRST
IPS
ISES
Future Planetary and Human Exploration
Testing Limits:
Extreme Cases
• Earth
• Planets