Simulating the effects of climate change on
vegetation distribution, carbon, fire and
hydrology on the Inyo National Forest
Maureen McGlinchy
Oregon State University
Ron Neilson
USDA Pacific Northwest Research Station
Extent of original study area
800-meter resolution
Overlap of model study area
and Inyo National Forest
Elevation (m)
High : 4200
Low : 79
Future climate under nine climate scenarios
(3 GCMs x 3 carbon emission scenarios)
HADLEY CM3
Change in Maximum Monthly
Temperature
A2
Comparison of two 30-yr averages:
1971-2000 versus 2071-2100
Change in degrees Celsius
A1B
Less than 2.5-degree increase
2.5 to 5.0
5.0 to 7.5
7.5 to 10
Greater than 10-degree increase
B1
MIROC3.2
medres
CSIROMk3.0
HADLEY CM3
Change in Minimum Monthly
Temperature
A2
Comparison of two 30-yr averages:
1971-2000 versus 2071-2100
Change in degrees Celsius
A1B
Less than 2-degree decrease
No change
Less than 2-degree increase
2 to 4
4 to 6
Greater than 6-degree increase
B1
MIROC3.2
medres
CSIROMk3.0
HADLEY CM3
Relative Change in Annual
Precipitation
A2
Comparison of two 30-yr averages:
1971-2000 versus 2071-2100
A1B
% Change
30% increase
30% decrease
B1
MIROC3.2
medres
CSIROMk3.0
•HadleyCM3 scenarios forecast drier springs and somewhat wetter late summer/early fall
•Miroc3.2 scenarios are much drier in winter months, drier in spring months and wetter in the late fall
•CSIRO –Mk3.0 scenarios are much wetter in the winter months and closely track historical patterns through
the spring and summer
Relative Change in
Relative Humidity
(May-October)
% Change
25% increase
Comparison of two 30-yr averages:
1971-2000 versus 2071-2100
HADLEY CM3
A2
MIRO3.2-medres
A2
25% decrease
CSIRO-Mk3.0
A2
MC1 results under two climate scenarios
(MIROC3.2-medres A2 & CSIRO Mk3.0 A2)
MC1 Vegetation Type
(30-year mode)
Simulated Historical
1971-2000
MIROC A2
2071-2100
Alpine
Subalpine Forest
Maritime Forest
Conifer Forest
Mixed Forest
Woodland
Shrubland
Grassland
Desert
CSIRO A2
2071-2100
+1300%
+600%
Total live carbon (aboveground + belowground)
Simulated Historical
1971-2000
MIROC A2
2071-2100
Live Carbon (g/m2)
0 to 2,500
2,500 - 5,000
5,000 - 10,000
10,000 - 15,000
15,000 – 30,000
Relative Change in Live Carbon
+100%
-100%
CSIRO A2
2071-2100
Total ecosystem carbon (live + dead, aboveground + belowground)
Simulated Historical
1971-2000
MIROC A2
2071-2100
Total Carbon (g/m2)
0 to 5000
5000 to 10,000
10,000 to 20,000
20,000 to 30,000
30,000 to 40,000
Relative Change in Total Carbon
+100%
-100%
CSIRO A2
2071-2100
Biomass consumed by fire
MIROC A2
2071-2100
Simulated Historical
1971-2000
Biomass consumed (g/m2)
High : 500
Low : 0
CSIRO A2
2071-2100
MC1 streamflow validation in the Smith River watershed
**A small portion of the Smith River
watershed is not included in the MC1
simulation. Therefore simulated streamflow
is will be underestimated (although I cannot
say to what extent).
19
Owens River Watershed
• Only a portion of the watershed is included within
the bounds of the study area
• Approximately 70% (~800,000 hectares) of the
watershed area is simulated and incorporated into
the following graphs
The CSIRO scenario suggests in an increase in interannual variability. The filtered data more clearly illustrates a
downward trend under the MIROC scenario.