Interactions of light snowpack, early
snowmelt, late frost, flowering, pollinators,
and seed-eating animals
David W. Inouye
Dept. of Biology, Univ. of MD
Rocky Mtn. Biological Laboratory
Global climate
Local climate
Snowpack
Snowmelt
Regional climate
NPO (50-75 yr)
ENSO (2-7 yr)
QBO (25.9 mo)
Phenology of migration
and
Emergence
Pollination
Frost Effects
Flowering
Phenology
Abundance
Granivores
Plant demography
Nature 461, 481-484 (24 September 2009) |
The North Pacific Oscillation
Warm phase
Cool phase
http://tao.atmos.washington.edu/pdo/
Ratio of Snow to Rain, Gunnison (7,683')
Annual ratio of snow to rain (inches)
10
6.22" precip
60.3" snow
r2=.068
p = .039
8
6
4
12.05" precip
32.6" snow
2
1900
1920
1940
1960
1980
2000
Ratio of Snow to Rain, Aspen (7,913')
Annual ratio of snow to rain (inches)
11
precip 16.11"
snow 165.9"
10
r2 = .098
p = .052
9
8
7
6
5
precip 26.37"
snow 125.2"
4
1940
1960
1980
2000
Crested Butte
Annual precipitation (inches)
45
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
1920
1940
1960
1980
2000
Crested Butte
Annual snowfall (inches)
400
350
r2=.165
p < .001
300
250
200
150
100
50
1920
1940
1960
1980
2000
Ratio of snow to rain, Crested Butte (8,950')
Annual ratio of snow to rain (inches)
14
27.6" precipitation
349" snow
12
10
8
6
2
4
r = .093
p = .006
33.3" precipitation
87" snow
2
1920
1940
1960
1980
2000
"
Changing Environment
• Changes in temperature
• Changes in precipitation
• Increased variation
• Changes can be global, regional, or local
In short:
• A changing ecological environment
Changes in phenology (timing of seasonal events)
The Rocky Mountain Biological Laboratory
Mean snowfall (since 1975) = 11.0 m
Range = 4.7 – 16.4 m
1800
Winter Snowfall in Gothic
1600
Snowfall (cm)
1400
1200
1000
800
600
400
200
0
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
Total winter snowfall in Gothic (cm)
1800
1600
1400
1200
1000
800
600
400
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
Total snowfall in Gothic (cm)
1800
2
1600
r = .159
p = .060
1400
1200
1000
800
600
400
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
billy barr
at RMBL since 1972
First Date of Bare Ground (Day of Year)
When does the snow melt?
180
Gothic Snow Data (from billy barr)
6/19/95
170
160
150
140
130
120
110
4/26/77
1975
1980
4/25/02
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
4/23/12
2010
Gothic snowmelt
First Day of Bare Ground (Day of Year)
180
170
160
150
140
130
120
110
100
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
Mean minimum April temperature (°F)
26
24
22
20
18
16
14
12
10
r2 = .193, p = .005
8
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
Day of year of peak flow, East River at Almont
29 June
180
170
160
150
140
130
7 May
120
1940
1960
1980
2000
Dust storm approaching Phoenix, AZ, July 5, 2011, photo by Daniel Bryant
Phoenix, AZ
http://www.wunderground.com/wximage/nitehawk/60
Was also forecast for:
Montrose, CO
Grand Junction, CO
Gunnison, CO
Aspen, CO
Telluride, CO
Rifle, CO
Cahone, CO
Dove Creek, CO
Cisco, UT
Thompson, UT
Moab, UT
Bluff, UT
Mexican Water, AZ
Global climate
Regional climate
NPO (50-75 yr)
ENSO (2-7 yr)
QBO (25.9 mo)
Local climate
Snowpack
Snowmelt
Flowering
Phenology
Abundance
Frost Effects
Frost can significantly reduce flower
abundance
13 June 2001
21.55 (F)
-5.81 (C)
11 June 2004
25.07° F
22F
6/11
Helianthella quinquenervis
Number of aspen sunflower heads
3500
lower plot
upper plot
3000
2500
2000
1500
1000
500
0
1976 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008 2012
Number of unfrosted flower heads
5000
2008
1982
4000
2011
1995
1984
3000
1980
1983
1994
1999
1978
1997
1993
2009
1991
2000
1979 1975
1996
2006
2005
1998
1000
1977
2003
0
1987
2000
1990
1988
20021981
1989
2007
2010
2001
1976
1992 2004
110
20 April
120
130
140
1986
1985
150
Day of year of snowmelt
160
170
19 June
Helianthella quinquenervis
1400
Maxfield plots
Number of plants
1200
1000
800
600
400
200
0
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
Delphinium barbeyi
Delphinium barbeyi
Tall larkspur
Fruit Farmers in Northeast Brace for
Frigid Temps
•
•
By THE ASSOCIATED PRESS
Published: April 27, 2012 at 3:05 PM ET
• Farmers in the Northeast are preparing orchard
heaters, irrigation systems and frost alarms to
protect their fruit crops from temperatures that
are expected to dip overnight to near freezing.
• While the cold weather is fairly typical for late
April, farmers say fruit crops are more vulnerable
this season because they blossomed early as a
result of a March warm spell.
• Some farmers say the forecast for Friday night
poses the biggest threat yet for crop damage. The
National Weather Service has issued a freeze
warning for parts of several New England states
and much of New York and Pennsylvania.
Gu, L., et al. 2008. The 2007 eastern US spring freeze: Increased cold
damage in a warming world? BioScience 58:253-262.
Global climate
Regional climate
NPO (PDO)
ENSO
Local climate
Snowpack
Snowmelt
Frost Effects
Flowering
Phenology
Abundance
Species
Interactions
Plant Demography
Asynchronous changes
in phenology of
migrating Broad-tailed
Hummingbirds and
their early-season
nectar resources
180
DAY OF YEAR
170
160
150
140
130
120
1970
1980
1990
YEAR
2000
2010
2020
Day of year of first sighting
180
170
160
150
140
130
120
0
50
100
150
Snowpack on 30 April (cm)
200
Are insect pollinators being affected?
Speyeria mormonia and Erigeron speciosus
Maximum Number of Flowers Counted
2011
1800
1979
1600
1984
1400
1200
1983
1980
1982
2005
1000
800
1998
1999
1996
600
400 1981
200
0
2009
2004
2003
1992
1977
2007
2002
0
1988
2006
2010
2000
20011987
1976
1989
25
50
75
1995
1975
2008
1978
1993
1986
1991
1997
1974
19941985
100
125
150
175
Snowpack on 30 April (cm)
200
225
visits
proportion
rootroot
Square
proportionofvists
square
1.0
X
X
female
0.9
X
0.8
male
0.7
0.6
0.5 X
0.4
0.3 X
0.2
0.1
0
500
1,000
# Erigeron flowers
1,500
Growth,
Male Butterfly
(Nt) year t+1
(Nt+1) - Ln
LnPopulation
2
1
0
-1
-2
-2
-1
0
1
2
Ln (Flowers
butterflies in year t)
Ln/ #(flowers/Nt)
3
The Erigeron – Speyeria story
•
•
•
•
•
•
Decreasing snowpack
Warmer springs
Earlier snowmelt
Increased incidence of frost damage
Fewer flowers (less nectar) for butterflies
Fewer butterflies
Boggs, C. L., and D. W. Inouye. 2012. A single climate driver has direct and indirect effects on
pollinator numbers. Ecology Letters 15(5):502-508.
Day of year of first bare ground in Gothic
Calculated and observed dates of snowmelt
20 June
160
140
120
4/23
100
1940
1950
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
Number of Helianthella flowers
5000
observed
calculated
4000
r2 = .552
3000
2000
1000
0
110
4/20
120
130
140
150
160
Day of year of snowmelt
170
6/19
Mertensia ciliata (Boraginaceae)
Maximum number of flowers in bloom
Mertensia ciliata
700
2
600
r = 0.334
p = .004
500
400
300
200
100
0
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
Mertensia ciliata
Maximum number of flowers
700
1993
r2 = .330
p = .004
600
1997
1998
500
1984
1986
400
1992
1994
1995
19911999
1996
300
1985
1975
2000
1988
1987 1982
200
1979
1980
1983
100
1977
0
400
1981
600
1989
800
1000
1200
1400
Total snowfall in Gothic (cm)
1600
Mean day of year of first flower
205
Mertensia ciliata
2
r = 0.682
p < .001
200
1995
195
1975
1983
2008
190
1991
1999
185
1988
180
1984
1982
1979
1993
1978
2011
1980
1989
1997
2006
1986
2002
2009
2010
19871976
1998
19961985
1981 1992
2000
1977
2007
2004 2001 1994
2003
175
170
110
120
130
140
150
160
Day of year of first bare ground
170
170
Mean day of year of first flower
r2 = .681
p < .001
Claytonia lanceolata
14 June
160
150
140
130
120
24 April
110
20 April 110
120
130
140
150
Day of year of bare ground
160
170
19 June
200
Date of first flower
190
180
170
160
Cardamine cordifolia
150
140
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
Aldridge, G., D. W. Inouye, J. R. K. Forrest, W. A. Barr, and A. J. Miller-Rushing. 2011. Emergence of a mid-season period of
low floral resources in a montane meadow ecosystem associated with climate change. Journal of Ecology 99(4): 905-913.
Global climate
Local climate
Snowpack
Snowmelt
Regional climate
NPO
ENSO
Phenology of migration
and
Emergence
Pollination
Frost Effects
Flowering
Phenology
Abundance
Plant Demography
Chipmunk (Tamius minimus)
Golden-mantled ground squirrels (Spermophilus lateralis)
Yellow-bellied marmots (Marmota flaviventris)
Day of year of first chipmunk sighting
12 May
130
120
110
100
7 April
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
Day of year of first chipmunk sighting
12 May
130
120
110
2
r = .173
p = .012
100
6 April
90
110
20 April
120
130
140
150
Day of year of snowmelt
160
170
19 June
Day of year of first chipmunk sighting
135
r2 = .209
p = .009
130
125
120
115
110
105
100
95
26
28
30
32
34
36
Average April temperature (°F)
38
Date of first marmot sighting in Gothic
30 May
20 May
10 May
1 May
20 April
10 April
1 April
25 March
r2 = .351
p < .001
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
Emergence day relative to marmot
Chipmunk
50
2
r = .497
p < .0001
40
30
20
10
0
-10
-20
-30
1980
1990
2000
2010
Emergence day relative to marmot
Ground squirrel
60
40
20
0
-20
-40
r2=.354
p < .001
-60
1980
1990
2000
2010
Day of first sighting or first flower
200
r2 = .157
p = .025
180
160
140
120
100
80
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
Wyoming ground squirrel
(Spermophilus elegans) –
moving up valleys
Foxes – moving up valleys
Veratrum tenuipetalum (Melanthiaceae)
Ramets flowering (of 1,000 counted)
Is there an environmental cue that triggers Veratrum flowering?
600
500
East side plot
400
West side plot
300
* = watered
200
100
0
1985
1990
1995 * * 2000
2005
2010
log (% flowering)
2.0
1.6
1.2
0.8
0.4
0.0
12
13
14
15
16
o
July temperature
C) two years prior
July(otemperature
( C)to flowering
o
July temperature ( C)
17
16
15
14
13
12
11
0 85 90 95 00 05 10
8
19 19 19 19 20 20 20
Year
Is there an effect of climate change?
Environmental conditions were conducive to flowering
in 21.6% of the years from 1928-1983 compared to
14.8% from 1984 to 2010.
Conclusions
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
The climate is changing
Snowmelt dates are getting earlier
Flowering is starting earlier
Frequency of frost damage is increasing
Plant demography is being affected
Pollinators may be affected
Variation in species responses may lead to
altered and new interactions
Global climate
Local climate
Snowpack
Snowmelt
Regional climate
NPO
ENSO
Phenology of migration
and
Emergence
Pollination
Frost Effects
Flowering
Phenology
Abundance
Plant Demography
“…. billions of
dollars of stimulus
funding have been
wasted,
mismanaged, or
directed towards
silly and
shortsighted
projects.”
35. Study of Wildflowers in a Ghost Town ($448,995)
A few dilapidated buildings are largely what remains in
Gothic, Colorado, a ghost town that is also home to the Rocky
Mountain Biological Laboratory. Over the next five years,
however, Gothic will host a $448,995 National Science
Foundation study by Dr. David Inouye on the impact of
climate change on the town's wildflowers. In recent years
[they] have been reportedly impacted by late season frost that
he believes is caused by global warming.
According to the Denver Post, however, after a visit to the
town this past spring, with the bounty of wildflowers filling
the meadows and blooming in the crannies of Colorado's high
country, you'd never guess that some of them are in trouble.
Delphinium nuttallianum - 8 yr intervals
Mean day of year of first flower
190
180
170
160
150
140
130
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010