Abstracts MtnClim 2012
Alphabetic by Senior Author
Talk
THE GLORIA PROJECT AND FUNCTIONAL TRAITS OF MOUNTAIN PLANTS AS PREDICTORS OF THEIR
RESPONSES TO CLIMATE CHANGE
Apple, Martha E. (1), Bengtson, Lindsey (2), Millar, Constance (3), Westfall, Robert (3), and Dick, Jan (4)
(1) Biological Sciences, Montana Tech, Butte, MT, (2) USGS Northern Rocky Mountain Science Center, West
Glacier, MT, (3) USDA Forest Service, PSW Research Station, Albany, CA, (4) Centre for Ecology and
Hydrology, Bush Estate, Penicuik, Midlothian, Scotland
Functional traits can be defined as physiological and structural characteristics of plants that influence their
interactions with the environment, and thus their responses to climate change. Important functional traits of
mountain plants include but are not limited to: life form and longevity (tree, shrub, cushion, herb, geophyte,
annual, perennial, biennial), distribution and habitat specialization, leaf characteristics (area, thickness, longevity),
photosynthetic pathway, root architecture, mycorrhizal status, and the capacity to form symbioses with nitrogenfixers. Clonal reproduction, flower type, phenology, mode of pollination, mating systems, and seed morphology,
seed/ramet distribution, and germination are also important functional traits. In the event of a drought, cushion
plants with small, xeromorphic leaves could be more likely to survive than a neighboring herbaceous plant with
thin, high-surface-area leaves that may lose water rapidly. As part of the GLORIA (Global Research Initiative in
Alpine Environments) project, which is an extensive global network of long-term monitoring sites on mountain
summits with the goal of determining responses of mountain plants to climate change, the GLORIA Plant
Functional Traits Working Group has constructed a list of plant functional traits that will likely be useful tools in
predicting responses to climate change. The list includes the traits described above, many of which are relatively
easy to characterize in the field or to derive from the existing literature, and which are thus in keeping with the
GLORIA project's philosophy of scientifically sound design, yet inexpensive and practical
implementation. Functional trait research may alleviate the difficulty of comparing trends across regions that do
not share the same taxonomic groups, and functional traits that are influenced by abiotic factors such as
temperature and precipitation may be valuable predictors of plant responses to climate change.
Invited Talk
THERMAL HETEROGENEITY IN STREAMS: ANIMALS EXPLOIT IT, MODELS IGNORE IT
Armstrong, Jonathan B., Schindler, Daniel E., and Lisi, Peter J.
Alaska Salmon Program, School of Aquatic and Fishery Sciences, University of Washington, Seattle, WA
The Bristol Bay region of Alaska contains diverse landscapes that support some of the world’s most abundant
wild salmon populations. Every year tens of millions of sockeye salmon return to the region’s watersheds,
triggering a massive resource pulse for consumers ranging from juvenile salmon to grizzly bears, which feed on
the eggs and carcasses of spawning salmon. Here I explore how spatial variation in water temperature mediates
the ability of consumers to exploit salmon subsidies. I present three case studies which encompass a range of
spatial and temporal scales, and show how thermal heterogeneity has both direct and indirect positive effects on
the foraging opportunities for consumers, including coho salmon, rainbow trout, gulls, and brown bear. The results
presented show that heterogeneous landscapes differentially filter regional climate effects, and present animals
with a range of thermal conditions. The complex ways in which animals actively exploit habitat heterogeneity
makes predicting biological responses to climate change extremely difficult, yet illustrates how maintaining a
diverse portfolio of habitats represents a tangible way to reduce the risks associated with a changing climate.
Poster
CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS ON MARTEN AND FISHER IN THE CALIFORNIA SIERRAS
Bachelet, Dominique, Spencer, Wayne, Rustigian-Romsos, Heather, and Ferschweiler, Ken
Conservation Biology Institute, Corvallis, OR
Martens and fishers are closely related forest carnivores of conservation concern in California, where both reach
their southernmost distributions. Smaller martens occupy high subalpine forests with deep and persistent snows,
while larger fishers occupy mid-elevation forests with less snow and warmer temperatures. Because they require
similar forest structural conditions (dense forests with large trees and abundant dead wood) but different climate
regimes (cooler, moister, and snowier conditions for martens; warmer, drier and less snowy conditions for fishers)
they offer a unique opportunity to investigate how changing climate may affect the species directly as well as
through changes in vegetation. We simulated how current distribution of martens and fishers are influenced by
vegetation characteristics (e.g., forest composition and structure), climate (e.g., temperature, precipitation, snow
depth and duration), physical variables (e.g., elevation, % slope) and presence or absence of the other species.
We then projected the potential future distribution of both species under climate change using alternative
emissions scenarios and general circulation model projections at 3 different spatial resolutions (10km, 4km and
1km). Future climate data were used to drive a dynamic vegetation model and a variety of species distribution
models. The pessimistic results have been made available through databasin.org. However, models have
limitations and the presence of local refugia and microclimates due to the complex topography of the mountains
are not likely captured by coarse scale climate or vegetation models and may in reality provide the animals with
effective avoidance options. Implications from this study will be used to support conservation and forest
management plans to address long-term sustainability of marten and fisher populations in the face of climate
change and increasingly severe fire regimes.
Talk
VARIABILITY IN MICROCLIMATES OF MOUNTAIN RANGES OF WESTERN NORTH AMERICA, AND ITS
EFFECT ON DISTRIBUTION AND TREND OF ALPINE MAMMALS
Beever, Erik A. (1), Dobrowski, Solomon Z. (2), Wilkening, Jennifer L. (3), Hall, Embere (4), Wolff, Sue (5)
(1) U.S. Geological Survey, Northern Rocky Mountain Science Center, Bozeman, MT, (2) Department of Forest
Management, College of Forestry and Conservation, University of Montana, Missoula, MT, (3) Department of
Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, University of Colorado, Boulder, CO, (4) Program in Ecology, Wyoming Coop
Fish and Wildlife Research Unit, Department of Zoology and Physiology, University of Wyoming, Laramie, WY, (5)
U.S. Nat. Pk. Service, Grand Teton National Park, Moose, WY
Despite their great topographic (and thus microclimatic) complexity, mountain ecosystems of western North
America are typically under-instrumented, and scientists are only beginning to understand some of the
phenomena and magnitudes of variability in mountain climates at micro- to meso-resolutions. We present results
from networks of temperature sensors in the northern Rocky Mountains and hydrographic Great Basin that been
collecting data for 2-7 years. Although sensors have been placed primarily in talus interstices, in the Great Basin
paired sensors above the talus and at typical weather-station screen heights (1.5-2 m), to calibrate the talusinterstice sensors to typical descriptions of climate. We have used these networks of sensors, plus modeled
variables of climatic water balance and other topographic and anthropogenic predictors, to try to understand
mechanisms underlying landscape-scale patterns of distribution and trend of American pikas (Ochotona
princeps). Temperatures in talus interstices differ from paired above-talus temperatures by few to >10 C, and diel
amplitudes of temperature swings are dampened in talus interstices. Lapse rates differ markedly within and
across the regions, apparently as the result of several interacting forcing factors. The pace of site-wide
extirpations of pikas from locations of historical records has increased five-fold, and the rate of upslope retraction
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has increased eleven-fold, from the 20 Century to the 21 Century’s first decade, in the Basin. Factors relating
to both temperature and precipitation appear most strongly related to patterns of persistence, occupancy, and
abundance of pikas, in our three study domains. These factors include average summer temperature, frequency
of very cold days, maximum snow-water equivalent, and growing-season precipitation. Different ecological
contexts seem to permit different degrees of behavioral plasticity to accommodate stresses of contemporary
climate.
PPT online
HANS EDUARD SUESS (1909-1993), RADIOCARBON, SUN AND CLIMATE
Berger, Wolf H.
Scripps Institution of Oceanography, University of California, San Diego, La Jolla, CA
Hans Suess was an important pioneer in the development of radiocarbon measurements and their application to
questions concerning the variability of solar output and possible effects on climate. He initiated the use of
measuring radiocarbon within tree rings for multi-millennial reconstruction of cosmic ray flux. He identified, within
a series mainly derived from bristlecone samples obtained from C.W. Ferguson, a strong cycle with a period near
200 years. The cycle is now generally referred to as the “de Vries” cycle, or also the “Suess” cycle. Analyzing a
long record published by Suess in 1978, I could not confirm the presence of this cycle in the series offered by
Suess. The analysis of a modern radiocarbon series based on tree-rings (“INTCAL09,” published by Reimer et al.,
2009) was more successful in confirming Suess’s discovery. The long-term periodicity of solar activity changes
through time, but there are preferred periods. I found gaps among the preferred periods, located near 200 y in the
case of the Suess series, and near 165 y in the case of the Reimer series. However, the 200-y solar cycle
apparently is real, as suggested by the analysis of published 10Be data and of aurora sightings that span more
than a millennium. A vital question that arises in the context is to what degree the radio-isotopes act as proxies of
solar activity, and to what degree they reflect elements of climate change.
Poster
WESTERN SPRUCE BUDWORM OUTBREAKS: A DENDROCHRONOLOGICAL RECONSTRUCTION AND
TREND ANALYSIS IN THE NORTHERN ROCKY MOUNTAINS, MONTANA, U.S.A.
Bottero, Alessandra (1), Naficy, Cameron E. (2), and Veblen, Thomas T. (2)
(1) Department of AGROSELVITER, University of Torino, Grugliasco, Italy (2) Department of Geography,
University of Colorado, Boulder, CO
Budworms (Choristoneura spp.) are among the most destructive insect pests of North American forests. In this
study we used tree-ring records to reconstruct and evaluate outbreak frequency, timing, and spatial patterns of
western spruce budworm (Choristoneura occidentalis Freeman) in mixed Douglas-fir forests in the Northern
Rocky Mountains. Budworm-induced reductions in tree-ring growth of approximately 400 trees in 10 host stands
located in two main lateral creeks of Paradise valley (MT) were detected during the past 250 years. The
comparison of cross-dated samples with non-host tree-ring series was performed using the software OUTBREAK.
The reconstruction of the insect outbreak history based only on a visual detection of narrow rings without
comparison with non-host tree-ring control series was not effective. In fact, sharply reduced growth during
outbreaks was not always easily detectable, and consequently comparison with growth of non-host tree species
was essential. Stand structure and age characteristics of Douglas-fir were analyzed to evaluate the possible role
of forest structure in determining outbreak severity and recurrence, and to assess the effects of budworm
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defoliation on different tree size classes. Outbreak patterns were also examined for changes in the 20 century
relative to prior centuries. Finally, we evaluated possible relationships between outbreaks and climatic patterns,
which suggested that outbreaks usually corresponded to increased moisture, while less budworm activity
occurring during dry periods. Preliminary results showed also that dense stands were more susceptible to
budworm defoliations.
Poster
LOOKING BEYOND CLIMATE: DISTURBANCE EFFECTS AND SUBSTRATE LIMITATIONS ON TREE
DISTRIBUTIONS IN ARCTIC AND TEMPERATE ALPINE ECOSYSTEMS
Brown, Carissa D. (1), Johnstone, Jill F. (2), and Vellend, Mark (1)
(1) Département de Biologie, Université de Sherbrooke, Sherbrooke, QC, (2) Department of Biology, University of
Saskatchewan, Saskatoon, SK
Range edges occupy areas on the extremes of species’ tolerance limits, and are likely to be sensitive to direct
climate effects. Species’ distributions are expected to shift northward and upward with increased temperatures
and environmental constraints on species’ establishment and survival are expected to lessen. However, these
predictions appear not to hold for all systems. Here, we contrast two alpine ecosystems where climate does not
appear to be the direct driver of tree species’ distributional limits. Using field experiments in alpine ecosystems
within the latitudinal treeline and within temperate-boreal transition alpine forest stands, we have begun to
disentangle the complex interactions of climatic and non-climatic drivers of species distributions at their range
edges. Both black spruce (Picea mariana) and sugar maple (Acer saccharum) distributions appear to be more
strongly driven by factors other than the direct effects of climate. Northern black spruce at the edge of their range
require several decades to become reproductively mature; therefore a climate-induced reduction in the fire return
interval may interrupt their typical cycle of post-fire self-replacement. Results from our black spruce study show
that recruitment was drastically reduced following two closely timed fires. Increases in fire activity (an indirect
effect of climate warming) may thus lead to a degradation of treeline forests in some areas, rather than the
increased tree density and forest extent predicted with climate warming. In contrast to black spruce’s disturbancecontrolled distribution, sugar maple distributions in temperate alpine forests appear to be limited by multiple,
interacting biotic and abiotic factors. Experimental reciprocal transplant experiments of both seed and substrate
have allowed us to begin to understand the drivers of the transition from temperate to boreal forests in these
ecosystems, and to understand the role that climate may or may not play in a warmer future.
Invited Keynote
ECOSYSTEM GOODS AND SERVICES, CLIMATE CHANGE, AND ADAPTIVE FOREST MANAGEMENT IN
MOUNTAIN REGIONS
Bugmann, Harald, Temperli, Christian, and Elkin, Che
Forest Ecology, Institute for Terrestrial Ecosystems, Department of Environmental Systems Science, ETH Zurich,
Zurich, Switzerland
Mountain regions provide a vast array of ecosystem goods and services (EGS). In densely populated areas such
as the European Alps, mountain ecosystems have been managed since centuries to provide the desired set of
EGS in a continuous fashion. While some EGS can be delivered synergistically (e.g., protection from avalanches
and conservation of capercaillie), in other cases there are antagonisms (e.g., on-site C storage and timber
production). Current management is set up to provide EGS in a spatially explicit manner, resulting from past
environmental and societal legacies. Anthropogenic climate change is likely to affect the provisioning of EGS in
both space and time, such that current management approaches may need to be re-thought. We focus on
mountain forest EGS and (1) evaluate how climate change will affect mountain forest properties at scales from
forest patches to entire valleys; (2) assess how the spatial patterning of EGS provisioning will change, leading to
changes in synergies and trade-offs that may need to be taken into account in future management; and (3)
identify the potential of adaptive management strategies to alleviate negative effects of climate change on forest
properties and EGS provisioning. Forest properties and EGS provisioning are simulated for three case study
landscapes in and nearby the Swiss Alps using the landscape model LandClim, which describes forest dynamics
(establishment, growth and mortality of trees) at the grid-scale (25x25 m) and incorporates spatially explicit
processes such as dispersal, management, wildfires, and windthrow. Simulation results suggest drastic changes
in forest properties along altitudinal transects at decadal to centennial time scales. While at lower elevations the
current set of species may be reaching their physiological limits, at upper elevations denser forests and an
increase in treeline elevation are to be expected. In terms of EGS provision, much more mellow changes are
simulated, but the spatial patterning of EGS provision, synergies and trade-offs is likely to change strongly, thus
calling for adaptive management strategies.
The simulation results are discussed in the context of (1) the problem of using EGS metrics to simplify complex
ecosystem properties; (2) the potential for adaptive management approaches to alleviate global change effects on
mountain forest EGS; (3) the potential and limitations of quantitative computer models of landscape dynamics as
decision-support tools for ecosystem management; and (4) the various sources of uncertainty inherent in the
underlying processes.
Poster
MODELING PIKA PRESENCE IN THE WESTERN US: RELATIONSHIPS WITH CLIMATE VARIABLES,
MODEL SENSITIVITIES, AND CLIMATE CHANGE IMPLICATIONS
Buotte, Polly C. (1, 2) and Hicke, Jeffrey A. (1)
(1) University of Idaho, Department of Geography, Moscow, ID; (2) Big Sky, MT
Temperatures have increased during the past century and projections predict additional warming in the coming
decades, with substantial implications for human and natural ecosystems. American pikas (Ochotona princeps)
may act as early indicators of climate change because of their sensitivity to temperature and because their
mountain habitat is expected to experience large changes in climate. Here we developed and evaluated models
of pika presence in the western US using climate data and MaxEnt, and assessed model sensitivities in two ways:
i) we compared regional (Westwide) models with subregional models; and ii) we compared models using 5-year
average climate data with those using 30-year averages. Models performed significantly better than random,
although commission rates were high. Summer maximum temperature was the most important variable in
Westwide models and in two of the five subregional models. Winter minimum temperature was also important in
Westwide models, and was most important in several subregions. Response curves of pika presence to climate
variables varied across subregions and climate input data. We modeled future probability of pika presence at
observed pika presence locations given climate change projections to assess sensitivities. Models projected
decreases in probability of pika presence for future climate projections, although the magnitude of decrease was
highly variable based on decade, emissions scenario, subregion, and model type. We suggest that models using
finer spatial (in our case, subregional) and temporal (5-year average climate) resolution are preferred in many
cases when developing species distribution models because they may capture important variability that does not
exist in models developed from coarser resolution data. Future research that includes the effect of additional
variables whose spatial distribution is currently not well known, such as talus or subtalus ice, will increase the
accuracy of pika presence predictions.
Invited Talk
DOES CLIMATE TRUMP FISH OR DO FISH TRUMP CLIMATE? LONGER-TERM ECOLOGICAL
CHARACTERISTICS AND FORCING FACTORS TO A SUBALPINE, MESOTROPHIC LAKE
Chandra, Sudeep (1), Trowbridge, Wendy (1), Henery, Rene (1), and Goldman, Charles (2),
(1) Aquatic Ecosystems Analysis Laboratory, University of Nevada, Reno, NV, (2) University of California, Davis,
CA
Climate is a major driver of ecological process within aquatic ecosystems, either by directly influencing physical
process or alterations through the water- or airsheds. Previous research has suggested that our changing climate
is altering the duration of ice out, mixing processes, and phenological characteristics of the plankton in lake
ecosystems. However, fish manipulations resulting may also alter a lake ecosystem (e.g. trophic cascade). In
this study, we examine the long-term trends in the ecological characteristics of a subalpine lake located along the
Pacific Rim in Northern California. The 52 year record from Castle Station, the longest known for a mountain
ecosystem in North and South America, and nearby sampling locations indicates that while air temperatures in
the late summer and spring periods are increasing, snow water content in Spring, ice out date, and surface water
temperatures are not changing. Primary production and zooplankton composition (decrease in Diaptomus and
increase in cyclopoid copepods) however shift during the longer term record. Utilizing the variability in the climate
and ecological data due to climate and lake characteristics over the period of monitoring, we use a structural
equation modeling approach to determine that prior to major perturbations from fish stocking, both fish
manipulations and climate consistently influence zooplankton structure and total biomass. After a 7 year period of
fish manipulations and drought, the lake has undergone a regime shift in zooplankton community structure that is
likely attributed to a combination of climate stress and fish manipulation. Post drought and manipulation leads to
a 20 year alteration to production and structure that is only partially returning to prior condition in recent years. We
believe it is increasingly important to consider fish manipulations and climate as interacting factors when trying to
determine the future condition of lake environmental related to climate change. The direction of changes may not
be clear due to the complexity of interannual dynamics.
Poster
SPATIO-TEMPORAL PATTERNS OF MOUNTAIN PINE BEETLE ACTIVITY IN THE SOUTHERN ROCKY
MOUNTAINS, POST-EPIDEMIC REGENERATION, AND POTENTIAL CONSEQUENCES
Chapman, Teresa B., and Veblen, T.T.
Department of Geography, University of Colorado, Boulder, CO
We present published results of spatio-temporal patterns of mountain pine beetle (MPB; Dendroctonus
ponderosae) activity in lodgepole pine (Pinus contorta) and ponderosa pine (Pinus ponderosa) from 1996 to 2010
in Colorado and southern Wyoming with regional climate fluctuations. We detail the annual progression of the
epidemic in lodgepole pine with respect to climatic, topographic, previous MPB activity, and forest stand
attributes. Both warm temperatures and episodic years of low annual precipitation combined with a largely
homogenous landscape to influence the development of the MPB epidemic in lodgepole pine. Multiple locations of
incipient MPB activity (epicenters) in lodgepole pine were identified. These epicenters overlapped an earlier
1980s MPB outbreak and were characterized by lower annual precipitation compared to areas that were infested
later. Across a large expanse of the southern Rocky Mountains, the MPB epidemic caused severe mortality,
affecting over 750,000 hectares of pine forest. Regeneration patterns following the MPB outbreak will have long
lasting legacies on forest composition and, potentially, the forest’s response to future disturbances, such as fire.
Therefore, we also present preliminary results of tree regeneration patterns following the MBP epidemic. Both
new seedling establishment and advanced regeneration showed a low density of lodgepole pine and dominance
by subalpine fir and aspen in subalpine forests affected by MPB attributed tree mortality. Tree inventories
showed a decrease in the density of living serotinous trees across the large regions of the study area. These
preliminary results suggest that lodgepole pine regeneration following future fires may be limited.
Poster
ASSESSMENT OF INSTITUTIONAL CAPACITY TO MANAGE ELK ACROSS A CHANGING LANDSCAPE
Childress, Amber N., Ojima, Dennis S., Baron, Jill S., and Galvin, Kathy
Natural Resource Ecology Laboratory, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO
Elk significantly influence the ecosystem and culture of the Rocky Mountain National Park region. Although elk
move throughout the whole region, elk management is primarily performed by agencies acting separately, with
institutional foci ranging from sustainability of elk viewing and tourism, to changes in plant communities, or
managing human-elk conflicts. In collaboration with Rocky Mountain National Park and Colorado Parks and
Wildlife, we assess the capacity of individual institutions (e.g. Rocky Mountain National park, Colorado Parks and
Wildlife, U.S. Forest Service, City of Estes Park) for managing these large ungulates across a changing
landscape. We present findings from a literature review of current management plans and interviews of scientists
and resource managers to understand the state of scientific knowledge and how elk management fits into goals of
each institution. Results provide insight to the range of strategies, scientific knowledge, and communication gaps
across and within institutions by determining if there is: a common understanding of elk management strategies,
actions and goals, and how they fit across agencies; a common view of regional elk populations and their
ecological role; and an accurate view of available science. The long-range goal is to build a community of
institutions capable of coordinated long-term resource management under rapidly changing environmental
conditions.
Invited Talk
PROGLACIAL LAKE-SEDIMENT RECORDS: SEARCHING FOR CLIMATIC SIGNIFICANCE IN A SPLITPERSONALITY SYSTEM
Clark, Douglas H.
Geology Dept., Western Washington Univ., Bellingham, WA
Mountain glaciers are sensitive barometers of climate. The records they leave are, however, often ambiguous
and difficult to interpret. Because the direct evidence of past glacier changes (moraines, till, striae) are
generally incomplete, many of us have turned to proglacial lake sediments to constrain glacier fluctuations
upstream. The results have been a handful of spectacular records interspersed with a plethora of much more
complex and divergent records (the “split-personalities”). My general explanation for these inconsistent results
is that “location is everything,” to which I would add “small is beautiful.”
The basic concept behind coring proglacial lakes is attractively simple: as glaciers expand (as a result of cooling
or increased snowfall), they flow across greater amounts of bedrock and produce progressively greater
amounts of fine glacial rock flour; as they retreat, less rock flour is produced. Proglacial lakes act as efficient
traps for this suspended sediment, and should effectively record these fluctuations in clastic sedimentation.
Although studies have validated this concept, deviations from it rapidly mount as the watershed feeding a lake
grows in size and complexity. For example, a number of my Canadian colleagues have argued that the
maximum rock flour flux to proglacial lakes actually occurs during retreat, lagging the glacial maximum; this idea
contrasts with my own experience in the mountains of the western US where there seems to be little if any lag.
The difference appears to reflect the size differences of the glacier systems; those in Canada are mostly
moderately large valley glaciers that produce large lateral moraines, whereas the glaciers I study in the Lower
48 are relatively small cirque glaciers. As the large valley glaciers retreat, the inner slopes of the lateral
moraines fail rapidly and send a large pulse of stored rock flour downstream into any proglacial lakes.
Conversely, the small cirque glaciers predominant in the mainland US produce relatively small moraines,
dominantly composed of coarse rockfall boulders and regolith with relatively little rock flour; as these glaciers
thin and retreat, there is relatively little fine sediments stored in the moraines and the flux of rock flour
decreases nearly instantaneously.
Larger basins introduce other complexities to the clastic sediment records of proglacial lakes: they have
increased potential for landslides, extreme rain events, or fires to disrupt the rock flour record. Although
workers have used various methods to isolate these effects, they invariably increase the noise to signal. My
solution to these problems has been to simplify and focus on small glaciers, located in stripped crystalline
bedrock basins, with minimal possible clastic input from other sources.
Talk
EVALUATION OF SNODAS SNOW DEPTH AND SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT ESTIMATES FOR THE
COLORADO ROCKY MOUNTAINS, USA
Clow, David W. (1), Nanus, Leora (1,2), Verdin, Kristine L. (1), and Schmidt, Jeffrey (1)
(1) Colorado Water Science Center, U.S. Geological Survey, Denver, Colorado, (2) San Francisco State
University, 1600 Holloway Ave, San Francisco, California
The National Weather Service’s SNODAS program provides daily, gridded estimates of snow depth, snow water
2
equivalent (SWE), and related snow parameters at 1-km resolution for the conterminous United States. In this
study, SNODAS snow depth and SWE estimates were compared to independent, ground-based snow survey
2
data in the Colorado Rocky Mountains to assess SNODAS accuracy at the 1-km scale. Accuracy also was
evaluated at the basin scale by comparing SNODAS model output to snowmelt runoff in 31 headwater basins with
U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) stream gauges. Results from the snow surveys indicated that SNODAS
performed well in forested areas, explaining 72% of the variance in snow depths, and 77% of the variance in
SWE. However, SNODAS showed poor agreement with measurements in alpine areas, explaining 16% of the
variance in snow depth and 30% of the variance in SWE. At the basin scale, snowmelt runoff was moderately
2
correlated (R =0.52) with SNODAS model estimates. A simple method for adjusting SNODAS SWE estimates in
alpine areas was developed that uses relations between prevailing wind direction, terrain, and vegetation to
account for wind redistribution of snow in alpine terrain. The adjustments substantially improved agreement
2
between measurements and SNODAS estimates, with the R of measured SWE values against SNODAS SWE
estimates increasing from 0.42 to 0.63 and RMSE decreasing from 12 to 6 cm. Results from this study indicate
that SNODAS can provide reliable data for input to moderate- to large-scale hydrologic models, which are
essential for creating accurate runoff forecasts. Refinement of SNODAS SWE estimates for alpine areas to
account for wind redistribution of snow could further improve model performance.
Poster
ESTIMATING PLANT SPECIES MIGRATION RATES IN THE PAST AND FUTURE
Cole, Kenneth L. (1), Truettner, Charles M. (1), Cobb, Neil S. (1), and Ironside, Kirsten (2)
(1) Northern Arizona University, Merriam-Powell Center for Environmental Research, Flagstaff, AZ, (2) U. S.
Geological Survey, Southwest Biological Science Center, Flagstaff, AZ
Models of future vegetation resulting from climate change scenarios have usually assumed either that all species
will geographically respond instantaneously to new climates, or that species will not expand outside of their
current ranges. For example, most forest stand simulator models assume that seeds of all species are already
present on the forest floor awaiting the appropriate climate conditions for germination and growth. These two
extreme options can be characterized as assuming an infinite, or zero, species migration rate. Although both of
these choices of migration rate are clearly in error, modeling an acceptable intermediate rate between these two
extremes has proven problematic. Geographic responses to changing climate incorporate several different life
characteristics for each species, such as: seed dispersal rates and distances, successional stage, and maturation
time. Fortunately, many plant species have available fossil records recording their migratory response following
past climatic events. Other data on species migrations are captured in historic plot comparisons and/or records of
colonization following forest clear-cuts. Especially promising are results when both fossil and historical data
depict very similar rates of migrational response. These rates can vary from very slow (Joshua Tree, ~ 2 m/yr) to
extremely rapid (Aspen, >500 m/yr), with most western tree species ranking somewhere between these extremes,
such as Colorado Pinyon (~ 50 to 100 m/yr) and Ponderosa Pine (~ 250 to 500 m/yr). The consequences of
these rates on modeled 2099 AD species distributions generated using several downscaled GCM scenarios will
be shown. Although incorporating any intermediate migration rate other than the absurd infinite or zero options
greatly affects the results, the specific migration rate selected has far less influence on the results than the choice
of the GCM scenario or variables selected for the biometric model.
Poster
CLIMBING THE SPATIAL LADDER: MAPPING TREE MORTALITY WITH GLOBAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
Cowles, Travis R., Hicke, Jeffrey A., and Meddens, Arjan J.H.
University of Idaho, Moscow, ID
Climate-driven tree mortality in recent decades has been documented globally. Current projections of climate
change threaten to increase the probability of these events in the coming decades through increased
susceptibility to drought, fire, and related insect outbreaks. Tree mortality events have the potential to alter the
biogeophysical and biogeochemical properties of forests worldwide. Thus, monitoring studies of tree mortality are
important for understanding drivers, assessing impacts, and improving predictions of future events. Our project
objective is to evaluate the capacity of global-scale remotely sensed imagery for mapping tree mortality. We
focus on imagery from the MODerate Resolution Imaging Spectrometer (MODIS), which has 500 m spatial
resolution and daily temporal resolution as well as a suite of products useful for evaluation. We searched for
candidate sites of tree mortality for intensive study using a published database of global tree mortality events.
Using finer-resolution imagery from Google Earth and Landsat, we found that few documented events possessed
the spatial intensity and extent needed for coarse resolution monitoring while also in the MODIS period of record
(2000 to present). Bark beetle outbreaks occurring in the past decade in western North America, however, were
found to be of sufficient spatial extent and intensity to be identified with MODIS imagery. Thus, we chose a study
location in Colorado that has experienced a major outbreak of mountain pine beetle. Previous studies have
produced maps of mortality with fine- and medium-spatial resolution remote sensing, thereby providing spatially
explicit validation datasets of tree mortality. We will discuss the development of our MODIS-based tree mortality
detection methods and application to broader sub-continental scale.
Poster
MONITORING HISTORICAL MOUNTAIN SNOWPACK EXTENT ACROSS WESTERN NORTH AMERICA:
CLIMATE DATA RECORD (CDR) DEVELOPMENT FROM LANDSAT AND MODIS
Crawford, Christopher J.
Department of Geography, Univ of Minnesota, Minneapolis, MN
The seasonal and perennial cyrosphere is showing longer-term retraction in response to climatic warming. For
western North America, this translates into seasonal mountain snowpack extent and depth decline. Fortunately,
satellite remote sensing offers a means to spatially monitor snowpack change over remote mountainous terrain,
and with a decadal image archive now accessible and growing daily, climate data record (CDR) development is
urgent. This paper presents a method for deriving visible satellite CDRs of mountain snowpack extent from
Landsat, validates snow cover retrieval with MODIS Terra, and examines the statistical relationship to groundbased SNOTEL SWE, near-surface air temperature, and precipitation observations. A Landsat seasonal snow
cover CDR (1975-2011) has been constructed for east-central Idaho and southwestern Montana – an
intermountain northwest sub-region. Cross-sensor snow map comparisons between Landsat TM, ETM+, and
MODIS Terra indicate that snow cover retrieval and classification methods exhibit high spatial and temporal
accuracy across complex mountainous terrain. Scatterplots between snow cover area (SCA) and SNOTEL SWE,
near-surface air temperature, and precipitation show statistically significant linear dependence during 1975-2011.
These results suggest that SCA during peak snowmelt across east-central Idaho and southwestern Montana is
contingent on spring temperature and late winter precipitation. SCA and SNOTEL SWE are significantly
correlated, but only share 25% variance in common, which possibly suggest that the SCA-SWE relationship is
spatially dependent. Strong agreement between MODIS Terra and Landsat SCA estimates confirms multi-sensor
interoperability, and provides a viable alternative for filling in visible coverage gaps to achieve a continuous CDR.
SCA estimates since the mid-1970s are skewed towards low snowpack conditions, especially since the early
1990s. Finally, the Landsat image archive is an unparalleled ensemble of land surface observation that can be
exploited for CDR development, and in return, high-resolution spatially explicit CDRs of seasonal mountain
snowpack extent across western North America can be derived for past, present, and future timescales.
Invited Talk
PATTERN AND PROCESSES OF TREE MORTALITY AT LOCAL AND REGIONAL SCALES
Das, Adrian
U.S. Geological Survey, Sequoia and Kings Canyon Field Station, Three Rivers, CA
Forests change through the deaths and births of trees. Yet one of the most poorly understood processes in forest
dynamics is mortality. As a result, the mortality functions of many forest models are essentially black boxes—
empirical relationships that are tied to untested assumptions about underlying mechanisms. To determine and
adequately quantify the actual mechanisms driving tree mortality, we must more thoroughly address a number of
basic questions: What agents and processes kill trees and how do they differ in their effect on forest structure and
in their response to climate? What are the most effective metrics, both temporally and spatially, of mortality risk in
individual trees? Can we scale these measures to make assessments of health at the stand scale? What climatic
variables best correlate with mortality? Can these correlates be used effectively to forecast the future? I attempt
here to synthesize some of our efforts to answer these questions, primarily using recent research in our old
growth stands in the Sierra Nevada of California. The work stretches all the way from detailed assessments of
individual tree mortality risk using tree rings to an attempt to forecast mortality risk on a forest-wide scale 100
years in the future.
Invited Talk
EXTREME EVENTS IN MOUNTAIN CLIMATES: THE ROLE OF LARGE STORMS AND ATMOSPHERIC
RIVERS IN THE CLARITY OF LAKE TAHOE
Dettinger, Michael (1), and Schladow, Geoff (2)
(1) US Geological Survey, Scripps Institution of Oceanography, La Jolla, CA, (2) Tahoe Environmental Research
Center/UC Davis, Incline Village, NV
Major storms impact sediment and nutrient loadings to Lake Tahoe and ultimately the Lake's clarity. Recent
evaluations of the history of such storms and their impacts in the Tahoe basin indicate that a particular kind
of storm, known now as "atmospheric rivers (ARs)", plays a disproportionate role in these processes and can be
tied to a significant part of year-to-year fluctuations in Lake clarity. This disproportionate role of ARs is due in
part to the large precipitation amounts that ARs routinely bring to the basin. This might not be such a problem
except that, in addition to bringing the wettest storms, ARs are the mechanisms for 80% of the warmest, most
rain-dominated storms that have reached the basin in the past 60 years. The warm, very wet storm conditions
associated with ARs feed rapid and enhanced runoff and thus enhanced erosion and transports of sediments and
nutrients into the Lake. To put these hydrometeorological findings into context, in current projections
of climate change, AR storms reaching central California (and presumably the Tahoe basin) are increasingly
enhanced in both frequency and magnitude as the 21st Century climate changes unfold.
Poster
HYDROLOGIC RESPONSE TO VARIABLE SNOWMELT INPUT IN TWO HEADWATER CATCHMENTS IN
THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES
Driscoll, Jessica M. (1), Molotch, Noah P. (2), Jepsen, Steven (2), Meixner, Thomas (1), and Williams, Mark W.
(2)
(1) University of Arizona, Department of Hydrology and Water Resources, Tucson, AZ, (2) Colorado University at
Boulder, Department of Geography and INSTAAR, Boulder, CO
Snowmelt from high elevation catchments is the primary source of water resources in the Southwestern United
States. Timing and duration of snowmelt and resulting catchment response can show the physical and chemical
importance of storage at the catchment scale. Storage flux within subsurface materials provides a summary of
catchment response to variation in timing and duration of hydrologic input. The variability of past storage flux for
a range of snowmelt conditions will provide a quantitative assessment of response, potentially predictive of future
snowmelt scenarios under conditions of climate change. Storage of waters in subsurface materials provides a
physical and chemical buffer to hydrologic input variability. We expect that the hydrochemistry of catchments with
less storage capacity will more closely reflect input waters than a catchment with more storage and therefore
more geochemical evolution of waters. Two headwater catchments were compared for this study; Emerald Lake
Watershed (ELW) in the southern Sierra Nevada and Green Lake 4 (GL4) in the Colorado Front Range. These
sites have geochemically similar granitic terrane, and negligible evaporation and transpiration due to their high
elevation setting. Ten years (1996-2006) of data from spatially-distributed snowmelt models were spatially and
temporally aggregated to generate daily values of snowmelt volume for each catchment area. Daily storage flux
was calculated as the difference between snowmelt input and catchment outflow values at a daily timestep,
normalized to the catchment area. Results show consistent storage loss in GL4 regardless of snowmelt rate, and
storage loss and gain in ELW due to change in snowmelt input relative a consistent outflow. Storage losses could
be due to underestimation of snowmelt input inherent in the snowmelt model, or a connection to a deeper
groundwater flowpath network.
Poster
REGIONAL CLIMATE VARIABILITY AND COMPOSITIONAL CHANGE AT UPPER TREELINE ALONG A
LATITUDINAL GRADIENT IN THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS
Elliott, Grant P. (1), Kipfmueller, Kurt F. (2)
(1) Department of Geography, University of Missouri, Columbia, MO, (2) Center for Dendrochronology and
Department of Geography, University of Minnesota, Minneapolis, MN
Abrupt increases in tree establishment throughout upper treeline ecotones during the latter half of the twentieth
century have been attributed to regional climate variability along a latitudinal gradient in the Rocky Mountains.
However, little attention has been directed towards examining the species-specific response of these trees to
changes in climate, particularly with respect to possible varying trajectories between species positioned in closedcanopy conditions below timberline versus more open environments above. This research seeks to measure the
compositional change within upper treeline ecotones along a latitudinal gradient in the Rocky Mountains to
determine whether species establishment patterns vary above and below timberline. We used dendroecological
techniques to sample trees in upper treeline ecotones on twenty-two study sites located on contrasting north- and
south-facing slopes in the Sangre de Cristo, Front Range, Medicine Bow, and Bighorn mountains. To assess
compositional distinctions between age-structure data above and below timberline, we used ordination
techniques. Preliminary results indicate that species dominance differs according to regional moisture and
temperature gradients, with establishment in the Sangre de Cristos and Front Range trending from spruce-fir
dominated closed forest towards bristlecone pine above timberline. In the Bighorns, relatively dry growing-season
conditions are evidently facilitating increased lodgepole pine establishment upslope from fir-dominated closed
forest. This research highlights the importance of assessing species-specific responses to changes in climate, as
future treeline ecotones comprised of new species assemblages could introduce novel climate-disturbance
interactions.
Poster
HIGH-ELEVATION PINES ARE LESS RESISTANT TO BARK BEETLE ATTACK THAN LOW-ELEVATION
PINES
Ferrenberg, Scott
Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, University of Colorado, Boulder, CO
I tested the hypothesis that high elevation pine trees have fewer defenses and less resistance to bark beetle
attacks than pine trees found at lower elevations. My results support this hypothesis and show a significant
decrease in pine resin ducts with increasing elevation in the Colorado Front Range. I also compared resin
defenses (both volume and chemical content) of limber pines (Pinus flexilis) to those in neighboring lodgepole
pines (P. contorta) to determine if white pines are less defended against bark beetles than other pine groups.
Early results suggest that limber pines have fewer chemical defenses against bark beetles than do lodgepoles.
Resin defenses in pines have been previously linked to both environmental and genetic factors; I considered
climatic gradients and selective sweeps from historical bark beetle epidemics as possible causes of the negative
relationship between increasing elevation and pine defenses. I will discuss the significance of my findings in the
context of range expansion by the mountain pine beetle (Dendroctonus ponderosae) which has moved upslope
over 800 m beyond its historical limits in some areas of the U.S. Rocky Mountains and northward by hundreds of
kilometers in Canada over the past 15 years. This range expansion has contributed to the current unprecedented
epidemic of the mountain pine beetle. Several high elevation pine forests are reportedly suffering greater mortality
following bark beetle infestations than pine stands at lower elevation—likely as a result of fewer defenses—with
several important white pine species among the most impacted by the mountain pine beetle.
Talk
THE SPATIAL VARIATION OF GLACIER RETREAT ACROSS THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN WEST, USA
Fountain, Andrew (1), Basagic, Hassan (1), Thorneycroft, Kristina (1), McCabe, Gregory (2), and Fagre, Daniel
(3)
(1) Departments of Geology and Geography, Portland State University, Portland, OR; (2) US Geological Survey,
Denver, CO; (3) US Geological Survey, West Glacier, MT.
The American West is populated with over 8000 perennial snow and ice features of which roughly 3000 may be
considered ‘glaciers’. However, all contribute to the hydrology of high alpine regions, particularly during the hot
and dry months late summer. Since about 1900 the glaciers have shrunk by an average of 45%, with regional
variations from 24% – 66%. The magnitude of area change depends on both glacier size and regional location.
2
Small glaciers (< 1 km ) show extreme variability in area change while larger glaciers show much less variation.
This points to the influence of local topography enhancing or diminishing regional climate variations. Glaciers in
the Pacific Northwest have retreated much less than those in other regions underscoring the maritime influence of
nearby alpine landscapes. Long term trends in glacier shrinkage are controlled by warming air temperatures
whereas precipitation is an important factor in decadal variability. Some glaciers appear to be relatively stable
and even fewer are advancing. These glaciers are found on high stratovolcanos, which provide unique conditions
of elevation and geology beneficial to glacier stability.
Invited Panelist
NATIONAL CLIMATE ASSESSMENT
Garfin, Gregg M.
Institute of the Environment and School of Natural Resources and the Environment, University of Arizona,
Tucson, AZ
The National Climate Assessment (NCA), mandated by the 1990 U.S. Global Change Research Act, evaluates,
synthesizes and interprets the findings of the U.S. Global Change Research Program, analyzes the effects of
global change on various key sectors (such as forestry, water resources, ecosystems), analyzes current trends in
global change, both human and natural, and projects major trends for the subsequent 25 to 100 years. Previous
NCAs have presented concise reports on the state of knowledge with respect to climate science, climate impacts
on society, adaptation challenges and research needs. The current NCA, which will formally report to the nation in
late 2013, has expanded goals that are highly compatible with the CIRMOUNT initiative. These include enhancing
the ability of the nation to anticipate, mitigate and adapt to changes in the global environment, and advancing an
inclusive, broad-based and sustained process for assessing and communicating scientific knowledge of the
impacts, risks, and vulnerabilities associated with a changing global climate. The NCA’s main thrust is support of
decision-making across the nation. The following innovations in the current NCA are relevant to mountain climate
researchers and institutions: focus on international aspects of global change, assessment of cross-cutting issues
(such as Water, Energy and Land Use; Impacts on Biogeochemical Cycles), and the development of national
climate change indicators. Mountain-focused scientists can contribute to the current NCA through review of the
National Climate Assessment report (in late 2012), participation in working groups (e.g., Adaptation, Mitigation
and Decision Support), and participation in ongoing assessment, through the NCAnet. NCAnet
(http://ncanet.usgcrp.gov) is a network of volunteer organizations that contribute to interim NCA reports, build
capacity for sustained and ongoing assessment, and cultivate partnerships with other research organizations and
stakeholders. Benefits to participants include organized access to the NCA process, and enhanced ability to
convey research results to stakeholders.
Poster
THE SOUTHWEST CLIMATE ASSESSMENT: KEY CLIMATE FINDINGS AND IMPLICATIONS FOR THE
REGION
Garfin, Gregg M.
School of Natural Resources and the Environment, University of Arizona, Tucson, AZ
The Assessment of Climate Change in the Southwest United States, is a technical input to the National Climate
Assessment. The report, developed by 110 authors, synthesizes and summarizes the state of knowledge
regarding climate change and its impacts in the six-state region that includes Arizona, California, Colorado,
Nevada, New Mexico, and Utah. The report looks at: climate and its effects, on scales ranging from states to
multi-state watersheds and across ecosystems and regions; links between climate and resource supplies and
demands; the vulnerabilities to climate variability and change across the region and along the U.S.-Mexico border;
and the adaptations in progress or needed to address future climate-related changes. The report does not
explicitly address the mountainous areas of the Southwest; however, region-wide findings have implications for
Southwest mountain ranges, hydrology, ecosystems and communities. Key climate findings include the following.
Temperatures across the region are increasing. The period since 1950 has been warmer than any period of
comparable length in the last 600 years. Although recent drought has been severe, droughts of the past 2,000
have exceeded the most severe and sustained drought during 1901-2010. In the last decade, flows in the major
th
river basins of the Southwest have been lower than their 20 century averages; many snowmelt-fed streams in
the region exhibited earlier snowmelt and earlier center of mass of annual streamflows. Climate models project
continued temperature increases, with longer and hotter summer heat waves. Average precipitation is projected
to decrease in the southern part of the region, and perhaps increase in the northern part. Late season snowpack
is projected to decrease. Droughts are projected to become more frequent, intense and prolonged. More frequent
and intense winter flooding is projected for the western slopes of the Sierra Nevada, whereas Colorado Front
Range summer flooding is projected to increase.
Poster
BIOGEOGRAPHY OF ASPEN IN NORTH AMERICA: INFERRING CLIMATIC NICHE DIFFERENTIATION
Greer, Burke.
Dept of Geography, University of California, Santa Barbara, Santa Barbara, CA
Populus tremuloides (Quaking Aspen), North America’s most widely distributed tree, is found in an extreme
variety of habitats. The growth and fecundity of aspen in suitable habitats is partly driven by a suite of climatic
characteristics whose means and extremes directly and indirectly increase or decrease the suitability of sites.
These characteristics of climate under which aspen survive and thrive can be defined as their climatic niche.
However, aspen populations in different regions may experience very
different climates and have different phenotypes. Thus, for a species that is so widely distributed, how does one
characterize its climatic niche? To examine climatic niche for aspen, MaxEnt species distribution models and
supporting climate data are examined for regional patterns in predicted aspen site suitability. The poster explores
the similarities and differences of climatic niche for this species and how regionally, climatic niche may be
different.
Invited Talk
A TREE-RING RECORD OF MONSOON CLIMATE IN THE U.S. SOUTHWEST
Griffin, Daniel (1,2), Woodhouse, Connie A. (1,2), Meko, David M. (1), Stahle, David W. (3), and Faulstich, Holly
L. (1,2)
(1) University of Arizona Laboratory of Tree-Ring Research, Tucson, AZ, (2) University of Arizona School of
Geography and Development, Tucson, AZ, (3) University of Arkansas Department of Geosciences, Fayetteville,
AR
Southwestern North America is characterized by a bimodal precipitation regime. Cool-season frontal storms are
the primary contributor to surface water supplies; however, the highly variable summer monsoon is a critical
source of moisture for the regionʼs social and environmental systems. As southwestern resource managers plan
for 21st century climate changes, understanding the nature of long- term monsoon variability is more important
than ever.
Our research group updated existing tree-ring collections from over 50 sampling sites in the southwestern U.S.
The new and archived specimens have been analyzed for width variations of “earlywood” and “latewood,” the
light- and dark-colored sub-annual components of conifer growth rings that respectively form in spring and
summer. The recently minted database of earlywood and latewood chronologies offers a novel means for
evaluating the regionʼs dual-season hydroclimatic history. We offer an interpretation of the seasonal climate signal
embedded within the new chronology network and attempt to reconcile spatial patterns in the tree-growth
response with the region's dynamically independent precipitation regimes.
Targeting the Arizona-Sonora sub-region of the North American monsoon, we also present high-quality
reconstructions of June-August (monsoon) and October-April (cool-season) precipitation that extend from 15392008. The reconstructions indicate that monsoon drought often overlapped, with some lead or lag, with periods of
protracted cool-season drought, including the 16th century Megadrought, the 17th century Puebloan drought, and
the ongoing 21st century drought. The tendency for dry (wet) winters to be followed by wet (dry) summers
th
appears more prevalent during the 20 century than any other time in the past 470 years. Moreover, the monsoon
reconstruction indicates a range of drought persistence that is not represented in the instrumental era. These
results establish an accurate and precisely-dated geochronology for comparison with other climate proxy records,
raise questions about basic monsoon climatology based on instrumental data, and underscore the importance of
precipitation seasonality in the Southwest.
Poster
INTEGRATING CLIMATE SCIENCE INTO MANAGEMENT-ORIENTED ADAPTATION SCENARIOS:
TOWARDS A HYBRID APPROACH
Gross, John E. (1), Welling, Leigh A. (1), and Udall, Bradley H. (2)
(1) National Park Service, Climate Change Response Program, Ft. Collins, CO, (2) CU-NOAA Western Water
Assessment, Boulder, CO
Scenario development is well established in communities exploring strategies and actions for coping with
uncertainty, originally with military and corporate organizations, and more recently by the climate change
adaptation community. A broad spectrum of approaches and practices are in use. One end of the spectrum is
anchored by a heavy reliance on quantitative models, and the other by processes relying primarily on input from
expert knowledge holders and group participation. Both types of approaches can inform broad-scale policies or
engage stakeholders, but neither approach alone is particularly well suited for informing decisions at scales
relevant to land management agencies. The National Park Service, working Global Business Network, recently
prototyped a ‘middle ground’ approach for creating and exploring scenarios. This approach is designed to exploit
the strengths of both model-based and participatory approaches, with a focus on informing land management
decisions. Our prototype workshop included a ‘Rocky Mountain Divide’ case study and it emphasized connecting
climate drivers to key physical and biological processes, along with important social drivers of change. Key
components included a detailed review and synthesis of climate observations and projections, climate-related
impacts and effects, and other relevant factors (e.g., land use change, demography, water availability and use).
We prepared a plausible ‘least change’ - but not ‘most likely’ – climate base case, and used two techniques to
develop more divergent scenarios. NPS has been successfully applying climate change scenarios to strategic and
park level planning for nearly five years, and this new method is an important addition to this overall effort. We are
designing specific climate information templates and other materials that leverage ‘lessons learned’ from the
prototype to facilitate future park planning and decision making.
Invited Talk
THE ROLE OF MICROBES IN ACCUMULATING NO3 IN THE SURFACE WATERS OF ROCKY MOUNTAIN
NATIONAL PARK
Hall, E.K. and Baron J.S.
U.S. Geological Survey and Natural Resource Ecology Laboratory, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO
-
NO3 concentrations have been rising in Loch Vale Watershed (LVWS) located along the eastern slope of Rocky
-1
Mountain National Park from a mean annual concentration of 0.23 +/- 0.02 mg L between 1991 and 1999 to a
contemporary concentration of 0.34 +/- 0.06 between 2000 and 2006. While total nitrogen in the precipitation has
+
been increasing over this period the signal has become increasingly dominated by NH 4 rather than NO3 . We
collected precipitation from two national atmospheric deposition sites (NADP CO89 and CO98) within the
watershed, a snow pit dug in May below tree line, and an alpine snowfield located above the highest lake in the
watershed in September. In addition we collected surface water samples at four times during the ice free season,
from two headwater lakes, a connecting stream, and the lowest lake in the watershed during 2011. At the outlet to
15
18
the watershed we collected surface water samples weekly, year-round. We used dual ( N, O) isotope analysis
of NO3 to evaluate whether NO3 in the watershed was arriving in precipitation and accumulating (inert), or
+
15
whether NH4 was being converted to NO3 by Bacteria and Archaea (reactive). While the δ N-NO3 of all
15
precipitation samples ranged from ~ -5 to 5‰ the δ N-NO3 of the all surface water samples was constrained
18
18
within that range between -1 to 2‰. However, the δ O-NO3 for precipitation was enriched in O (60 to 80‰)
relative to the surface water (0 to 50‰) and thus the two pools of NO 3 did not overlap in oxygen isotope
concentration suggesting that the nitrate in the surface water had been nitrified by microorganisms and was
18
distinct in origin from NO3 in precipitation. In addition, the δO -NO3 of the surface water became increasingly
18
depleted in O suggesting an increasing contribution of nitrification to the dissolved NO3 pool as the season
progressed. We used analysis of the microbial stoichiometry coupled with analysis of relative nitrifier abundance
(qPCR of amoA gene) to identify hotspots for nitrification and nitrogen cycling in general in time and space within
LVWS. Understanding the microbial mechanism for this watershed scale biogeochemical signal has important
implications for how alpine ecosystems are being altered in the face of global change.
Poster
INCREASED WINTER-SEASON SNOWPACK ABLATION FOLLOWING SEVERE FOREST DISTURBANCE:
IMPLICATIONS FOR NEGATIVE FEEDBACKS ON WATER AVALIABILITY
Harpold, Adrian A. (1), Brooks, Paul D. (2), Biederman, Joel A. (2), and Gochis, David (3)
(1) Institute for Artic and Alpine Research, University of Colorado, Boulder, CO, (2) University of Arizona, Tucson,
AZ, (3) National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO
Water resources in the Western U.S. are heavily reliant on snowmelt runoff from forested areas, and these areas
are subject to a myriad of potential disturbances with relatively unknown effects on larger-scale water balance.
Warming temperatures and drought have increased tree mortality from water stress, insects and fire in Western
U.S. forests. Using intensive snowpack measurements at several spatial scales we demonstrate increased
winter-season snowpack ablation following disturbance at two sites: 1. insect-caused tree die-off in Wyoming and
2. high-severity fire in New Mexico. In both cases, annual peak snowpack is compared between the postdisturbance forest and a healthy reference. As expected, new snow accumulation after storms increased in the
post-disturbance forests because of reduced sublimation of intercepted snow. The peak snowpack decreased in
the disturbed forests, however, suggesting increased winter ablation prior to the onset of melt. Several lines of
evidence suggest that increases in sublimation were responsible for the increased winter snowpack ablation
following disturbance: 1. Cold content of the snowpack at peak accumulation, and 2. Water isotopes from the
snowpacks showing increased kinetic fractionation during the winter in disturbed forests. The distribution of
snowpacks at peak accumulation suggest that reductions in shading of the snow surface following disturbance
was the primary driver of increased winter-season sublimation in these semi-arid mountains where the vapor
pressure deficit is high, cloud-cover is relatively low, and turbulent kinetic energy is likely sufficient to transport
water vapor. The importance of shortwave radiation to the snowpack energy balance suggests that thresholds in
canopy loss might be necessary to trigger increased snowpack sublimation that is strongly dependent on slope
and aspect. We therefore hypothesize that high-severity disturbance might elicit a different snowpack response
than the more moderate severity historical disturbance regime with which forests co-evolved. High-severity
disturbance could result in less water availability for vegetation in topographic positions exposed to more
radiation, constituting a negative feedback in montane forests that may influence the spatiotemporal patterns of
tree mortality. When combined with a presumed increase in energy inputs and ablation during melt, increases in
winter vapor losses could have severe but unknown effects on larger-scale water balance and downstream water
resources.
Poster
TO SHIFT OR NOT TO SHIFT – THE EFFECT OF SEASONAL CLIMATE, MOUNTAIN PEAK LOCATION AND
LIFE-FORM ON RANGE SHIFT RATES
Harsch, Melanie A. and HilleRisLambers, Janneke
Department of Biology, University of Washington, Seattle, WA
Climate is changing more rapidly at continental than oceanic sites and during the winter than the summer months.
We ask the questions: how does the seasonal timing of climate change affect range expansion rate and are range
expansion rates consistent across mountain peaks and life forms? We calculated range expansion rates, using
occurrence records from online plant databases for 228 species (17-193 species per region) with more than 30
years of records within nine defined regions. Expansion rate was estimated for each species-region combination
as the slope of the relationship between elevation and year. Seasonal climate change was estimated for the
maximum elevation recorded for each species-region combination using PRISM data as the slope for the
relationship between the climate variable (maximum, minimum and mean winter and summer temperature, snow,
summer precipitation) and year for the period 1960 – 2009. We modeled the rate of change in elevation within a
generalized linear mixed effect model, specifying genus as a random effect. Results depended upon region. For
all but one region, species tended to be shifting upward (53%, 273/514) with greatest expansion rates observed
for the tree life-form. However, only 7% (13/177) were shifting upslope at the excluded region. The best model for
all regions included three summer and two winter climate parameters. Expansion was more likely to occur where
summer precipitation, the minimum summer temperature, and snow increased more rapidly and less likely to
occur where the maximum summer temperature and maximum winter temperature increased more rapidly. If the
one outlying peak is removed, the only critical climate variable is the rate of maximum summer temperature
change. The critical difference between regions and range shift direction was the rate of winter warming and
snowpack decline. Results indicate the relative importance of climate on range expansion rates, especially during
the winter months.
Poster
ASSOCIATION OF SPRUCE BEETLE OUTBREAKS IN NORTHWESTERN COLORADO WITH
INTERANNUAL AND MULTIDECALDAL-SCALE CLIMATE VARIATION
Hart, S.J. (1), Eisenhart, K.S. (2), Jarvis, D. (3), Kulakowski, D., (3), and Veblen, T.T. (1)
(1) Department of Geography, University of Colorado, Boulder, CO, (2) Geosciences Department, Edinboro
University of Pennsylvania, Edinboro, PA, (3) Department of Geography, Clark University, Worchester MA
Here we use existing and new site-specific tree-ring reconstructions of historical (1650 CE – present) spruce
beetle (SB; Dendroctonus rufipennis) outbreak to better describe the synchrony of outbreak across northwestern
Colorado. We also examine associations between SB outbreak and the Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI),
El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), and the Atlantic Multidecadal
Oscillation (AMO). We found that periods of increased radial growth in understory trees lagged dates of SBinduced mortality by 0-10 years. Since the frequency of death dates is heavily skewed towards more recent time
periods, the confirmation that SB mortality and release periods occur synchronously statistically confirms that
release periods can be used reconstruct SB outbreak in NW Colorado. We found that the initiation of SB
outbreaks across all sites was highly synchronized at decadal to multidecadal timescales. The initiation of SB
outbreaks across northwestern Colorado was associated with periods positive PDSI, positive phases of the AMO
and negative phases of ENSO and PDO. The synchronous timing of SB outbreaks across NW Colorado and the
association with PDSI, ENSO, PDO, and AMO suggests that climate is an important driver of SB outbreak in NW
Colorado.
Invited Talk
ACTIONABLE SCIENCE AND DECISION SUPPORT FOR MANAGING RISKS FROM CHANGING MOUNTAIN
CLIMATES
Hartmann, Holly C.
Arid Lands Information Center, University of Arizona, Tucson, AZ
Mountain climate researchers are increasingly called upon to provide more than basic research that is
communicated primarily to other scientists. In practical terms, what does it mean to provide use-inspired, usable,
or actionable science, or to provide decision support to resource managers and policy makers? Providing
actionable science and decision support is especially challenging for the mountain climate research community
because mountain climates are important across many, often intertwined, issues and sectors, and conditions are
changing more rapidly, and are expected to continue to do so, than in many other regions. Decision makers have
a broad range of abilities to access, interpret, and apply scientific information, and their decision processes
require different types of engagement and research products. Further, simply providing data and information is
insufficient; knowledge development that connects to the values and wisdom of decision makers and communities
is needed as well. This presentation describes strategies and tactics to help mountain climate researchers,
individually and as a community, support decision makers effectively, yet efficiently. Topics include engaging with
ongoing activities, connecting with a variety of decision making frameworks, linking across temporal and spatial
scales, considering different types of adaptation, providing clarity in the characterization of confidence and
uncertainty, and supporting the use of scenarios to reduce, characterize, or embrace uncertainty as appropriate.
Poster
REGIONAL TREE MORTALITY FROM BARK BEETLE OUTBREAKS AND WILDFIRES IN WESTERN NORTH
AMERICA: EXTENT AND IMPACTS TO CARBON STOCKS
Hicke, Jeffrey A. (1), Meddens, A. J. H. (1), and Allen, Craig D. (2)
(1) Department of Geography, University of Idaho, Moscow, ID, (2) Jemez Mountain Field Station, Los Alamos,
NM
Bark beetle outbreaks and wildfires are forest disturbances that respond strongly to climate and affect future
climate through carbon cycling. Extensive tree mortality has occurred in western North America as a result of
these disturbances, yet estimates to date have relied on data sources that include live as well as killed trees.
Here we present an analysis of tree mortality that uses recent databases of mortality area and quantifies impacts
to forest carbon stocks. Mortality area from bark beetles was derived from aerial surveys in 1997-2010 in the
western US and 2001-2010 in British Columbia that were converted to mortality area by multiplying by speciesspecific crown areas and, in the case of the US, adjusted for underestimation. We summed moderate- and highseverity burned areas in forests from the Monitoring Trends in Burn Severity (MTBS) database from 1984-2009 to
estimate mortality area from forest fires. Mortality area was then combined with spatially explicit maps of carbon
stocks to estimate the amount of carbon in killed trees. Notable findings include that the mortality area from bark
beetle outbreaks in the western US was comparable to the mortality area in British Columbia during the last few
decades. In the western US, mortality area from bark beetles was similar to or exceeded that from forest fires.
Carbon stocks in trees killed by these two disturbance types (beetles and fire) had similar spatial and temporal
patterns as tree mortality, illustrating the importance of these disturbances in governing regional forest carbon
fluxes.
Talk
INTERACTIONS OF LIGHT SNOWPACK, EARLY SNOWMELT, LATE FROST, FLOWERING, POLLINATORS,
AND SEED-EATING ANIMALS.
Inouye, David W. and Amy M. McKinney. Dept. of Biology, University of Maryland, College Park, MD 20742-4415,
and Rocky Mtn. Biological Laboratory, PO Box 519, Crested Butte, CO 81224
An increasingly frequent weather sequence at our high-altitude (2,900m) study site in the Colorado Rocky
Mountains may be light snowpack, which in combination with the effects of dust storms and warm spring
temperatures, leads to early snowmelt and hence early phenology of plant development. A consequence of this
is that, owing to the unchanging dates of last hard frost (early June), many plants have leaves and flower buds
developed at the time of frost. This year snow melted on 23 April at our snow measurement station, a record
early date, followed by hard frosts on 30 April, 27-28 May, and again on 11 June. Species of plants for which we
had not previously recorded frost damage since 1973 exhibited frost-damaged leaves, and many species of
wildflowers had no inflorescences this year, or had stalks with frost-killed buds. The abundance of bumble bee
(Bombus) queens was qualitatively lower than usual (perhaps from mortality due to sub-freezing ground
temperatures, which are unusual), and very few workers had appeared by late July. Flower abundance and plant
growth were probably also impacted by the lack of precipitation in June. Butterflies were relatively abundant
(perhaps because of excellent flowering last summer), but they and other pollinators were observed visiting
flowers they do not typically visit, suggesting that there is a shortage of nectar this summer. Demographic
implications for the wildflowers could include both direct frost mortality and the consequences of not producing
seeds this year. Seed predators and mammals dependent on seeds are likely to suffer population declines this
fall and winter, and many pollinator species are likely to be rare next summer.
Poster
QUANTIFYING ENVIRONMENTAL CONTROLS ON SAP FLOW IN GREAT BASIN TREE SPECIES AND
THEIR POSSIBLE SIGNIFICANE FOR MOUNTAIN GROUNDWATER RECHARGE UNDER
ANTHROPOGENIC CLIMATE CHANGE
Johnson, Brittany G. (1,2), Jason, Richard L. (1), and Arnone III, John A. (1)
(1) Division of Earth and Ecosystem Sciences, Desert Research Institute, Reno, NV, (2) Graduate Program of
Hydrologic Sciences, University of Nevada, Reno, Reno, NV
Transpiration of trees in mountain recharge zones may significantly limit the input of water to groundwater
systems in Great Basin mountain ranges. This removal of vadose zone soil water eventually constrains the
bioavailability of water for both agriculture and human consumption. The objective of this study is to develop a
quantitative understanding of the response of sap flow to key modulating environmental factors. Quantifying the
interaction between these factors will determine which have greatest influence on transpiration rates and how
rates may be affected by shifts in these factors under anthropogenic climate change. Data recorded from a
mature tree growing at a montane site (2,730 m) on the western slope of the Snake Range in eastern Nevada
measured during a the 2011 growing season indicated that at a minute-to-minute timescale, photosynthetically
active radiation (PAR), and covarying air temperature and vapor pressure deficit (VPD), most strongly modulated
diurnal patterns of sap flow. On a daily timescale, observed maximum daily sap flow patterns were most strongly
correlated with maximum soil and air temperatures. Surprisingly, precipitation events and declines in topsoil (0-30
cm) volumetric water content during the growing season by 5-10% appeared to have little effect on sap flow. This
suggests that soil water potentials remained in a range that still enabled trees to extract water easily. Anticipated
higher VPDs under projected climate scenarios may further increase transpirational water losses.
Poster
YEAR-ROUND PRODUCTIVITY IN A MID-MONTANE MIXED CONIFER FOREST IN THE SIERRA NEVADA
Kelly, Anne E. and Goulden, Michael L.
University of California Irvine, Department of Earth System Science, Irvine, CA
Understanding how the physical environment controls ecosystem growth and water use is fundamental to
predicting the impacts of future climate change. Historical natural history literature assumes that the mixed conifer
forest of the Sierra Nevada has a short growing season due to cold snowy winters and dry Mediterranean
summers, yet the limiting factors on the growing season remain unknown. The literature describes the large
stature and high productivity of these forests, but no studies have quantified the climatic controls on ecosystem
function. We used eddy covariance, sap flux, soil moisture, snow water content, soil respiration, and direct
biomass measurements to understand how winter cold and summer drought may limit growth at a mixed conifer
site in the Kings River Experimental Watershed. We show that this forest exhibits a year-round growing season
due to a combination of moderate canopy climate, access to deep soil water, and high photosynthetic rates at low
temperatures.
Poster
SHIFTS IN ALPINE AND SUB-ALPINE PLANT SPECIES ABUNDANCES OVER NEARLY FIVE DECADES IN
A WESTERN NORTH AMERICA MOUNTAIN RANGE
Kopp, Christopher W. and Cleland, Elsa E.
University of California, San Diego. Division of Biological Sciences. La Jolla, CA
Shifting range distributions observed worldwide provide some of the best evidence of species responses to
increasing global temperatures over the past century. Many predictions of species range shifts are based on the
climate envelope approach, with the null prediction that species ranges will shift poleward and upward in elevation
to track suitable climate while populations at lower elevations and latitudes retract. In 2010 we conducted a resurvey of plant species distribution and abundance in eastern-California’s White Mountains, in areas originally
surveyed by Harold Mooney in 1961. Species presence and abundance data were collected along line transects
between elevations of 2,900 m and 4,000 m. We found that Artemisia rothrockii (Rothrock sagebrush) had
increased in abundance at the upper reaches of its elevational distribution. In addition, we observed significant
declines in abundances of three alpine cushion plants: Trifolium andersonii, Phlox condensata, and Eriogonum
ovalifolium at the middle elevations of their distribution but not at the upper reaches. These shifts occurred during
a period when June through October mean temperatures increased 0.98 °C and mean annual precipitation
declined by 53 mm. Together these results suggest that warmer and drier conditions may be negatively impacting
alpine plant species while promoting expansion of lower-elevation sagebrush in the White Mountains, possibly
signaling the beginning of a transition of this mountain range’s alpine plant community to sagebrush steppe.
Poster
DECADAL SNOW COVER TRENDS IN HEMLOCK-FIR ECOTONE AREAS OF THE WESTERN OREGON
CASCADES VIA MODIS SNOW COVER PRODUCTS
Kostadinov, Tihomir S., Lookingbill, Todd R., Phelan, Conor, and Strickler, Ethan
University of Richmond, Richmond, VA
Snow cover extent and persistence have important implications for planetary energy balance and climate
sensitivity to forcings. Snowmelt runoff dominates the hydrological cycle in mountainous regions of the western
USA. Century-scale changes (mostly declines, especially at lower elevations) in snow cover and snow water
equivalent (SWE) have been documented in the Pacific Northwest and attributed to climate change. Climate
change is also expected to cause shifts in plant species distributions along elevation gradients, but the underlying
mechanisms may be significantly more complicated than can be attributed to temperature changes alone. Here,
we assume that trends in snow cover persistence are one of the main factors that influence the competitive
dynamics of Tsuga heterophylla (Western hemlock) vs Abies procera (Noble fir) and Abies amabilis (Pacific silver
fir) because of the differential establishment and survival responses of their seedlings to snow. Using information
from species distribution modeling at the H.J. Andrews Experimental Forest (HJA), the ecotone between these
forest community types was predicted and mapped for the entire Western Oregon Cascades. Decadal trends in
snow cover for this ecotone region were determined from MODIS Terra binary snow cover remote sensing
products (2000-2011). We only considered MODIS pixels that were similar to the HJA modeled ecotone in land
cover (evergreen forest), elevation and radiation exposure (latitude, slope, aspect). We recorded the dates of
seasonal snow disappearance in the ecotone region, considering at least 90% of valid ecotone pixels being snowfree as the disappearance criteria. Preliminary results indicate a decadal-scale trend of later disappearance of
snow in the hemlock-fir ecotone, consistent with an observed concurrent decadal trend of downslope shift in
hemlock seedling establishment at the HJA. However, significance of the snow disappearance trend is sensitive
to the criteria used. Frequent and persistent cloud cover further confounds the analysis and illustrates the need to
supplement satellite data with spatially explicit long-term ground observations.
Talk
ALPINE TREELINE WARMING EXPERIMENT: EFFECTS OF MICROCLIMATE ON SUBALPINE SEEDLING
ESTABLISHMENT WITHIN AND BEYOND TWO SPECIES’ CURRENT ELEVATION RANGES
Kueppers, Lara M. (1, 2), Castanha, Cristina (2, 3), Moyes, Andrew (1), Germino, Matthew (4), and Torn,
Margaret (2, 3)
(1) University of California, Merced, CA, (2) Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, Berkeley, CA, (3) University
of California, Berkeley, CA, (4) USGS, Boise, ID
To experimentally test model projections of subalpine tree species’ uphill migration with climate change, we
established the Alpine Treeline Warming Experiment (ATWE) at Niwot Ridge, CO. Common gardens subject to
warming and watering treatments are replicated at three sites: near the lower limit of subalpine forest (Subalpine),
within the alpine-treeline ecotone (Treeline), and in the alpine tundra, beyond the current elevation ranges of the
species (Alpine). Seeds of limber pine and Engelmann spruce have been sown each year since 2008 to quantify
germination and survival and their dependence on climatic factors. In all sites, preliminary results indicate the
heating and watering treatments shifted the microclimate envelopes into which subalpine tree seedlings might
recruit. In 2010 and 2011, daily 5-10 cm soil temperature was greater in heated and heated+watered plots, while
moisture was lower in heated plots and slightly greater in watered plots. Preliminary results indicate timing of seed
germination is controlled by germination degree days, with earlier germination in the Subalpine and in heated
plots. In 2010, limber pine seedling survival decreased with increasing growing degree days and with the number
of days that soil volumetric water content was below 8%. This soil moisture threshold corresponded with seedling
water potentials of -4 MPa and shutdown of stomatal conductance and photosynthesis in first year seedlings,
suggesting shallow soil water availability is critical to seedling establishment within and beyond this species’
range. Results from 2011 and Engelmann spruce also appear to support the importance of soil water availability
to seedling establishment. Thus, emerging results from the ATWE indicate that contrary to expectations, warming
may not promote seedling establishment at Treeline and in the Alpine if it leads to longer, warmer growing
seasons and extended periods with low soil moisture. Consistent with expectations, warming may reduce
seedling establishment in Subalpine forest.
Talk
DIRECT AND INDIRECT EFFECTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON BUNDLES OF GRASSLAND ECOSYSTEM
SERVICES
Lamarque, Pénélope, Lavorel, Sandra, Quétier, Fabien, and Mouchet ,Maud
Laboratoire d’Ecologie Alpine, UMR 5553 CNRS Université Joseph Fourier, BP 53, 38041 Grenoble Cedex 9,
France
Land-use and climate change are pointed out as the primary causes of global biodiversity loss and ecosystem
services. However, while the consequences of climate change on ecosystem properties and associated services
are well documented, unravelling the cascading impacts of climate change on ecosystem services through
changes in agricultural management is largely overlooked. Here, we present a trait-based framework to
understand how climate change is affecting trade-offs among ecosystem services under varying management
conditions. Using alternative scenarios we discriminated direct effects of climate change on ecosystem
functioning related to plant functional properties, from indirect effects through farmers’ management adaptations.
Ecosystem service supply was overall more sensitive to climate than to induced management change, but
bundles ecosystem services remained stable across scenarios. However these responses were strongly
influenced by the spatial extent of management change, as plot level effects on ecosystem properties need to be
scaled up to the entire landscape. The trait-based approach revealed how interactions and trade-offs among
ecosystem were determined by the combination of common driving traits and common responses to changes in
fertility.
Invited Talk
ADAPTATION OF MOUNTAIN REGIONS TO DROUGHT RECURRENCE IN A CONTEXT OF GLOBAL
CHANGE
Lavorel, S. (1), Courbaud, B. (2), Dobremez, L. (3), Nettier, B. (3), Lamarque, P.(1), Véron, F. (2), and Bonet, R.
(4)
(1) Laboratoire d’Ecologie Alpine, CNRS UMR 5553, Université Joseph Fourier, Grenoble, France, (2) Unité
Ecosystèmes Montagnards, Irstea, Grenoble, France, (3) Unité Développement des Territoires de Montagne,
Irstea, Grenoble, France, (4) Parc National des Ecrins, Gap, France
The mechanisms of adaptation of socio-ecosystems from European mountain regions to recently observed and
predicted recurring drought are poorly known. In spite of the paucity of either long-term or experimental data on
responses of both grassland and forest ecosystems limits, available evidence suggests a strong resilience to
recent droughts, in relation to adaptive mechanisms to a long-term history of climate variability at multiple time
scales, and as compared to other factors such as management for grasslands or storms for forests. At the same
time, annual-scale drought impacts on grassland production require farmers and shepherds to propose short-term
tactic adaptations that usually rely on pre-existing coping abilities determined by current farm and management
structures, and are modulated by current economic and political context. In contrast, foresters appear less
responsive because responses of tree mortality and recruitment over the long-term are uncertain, and external
factors of markets and policy are likely to prevail over management decision. Mid-term (2030) scenarios were
constructed using a participative approach, and combined two climate alternatives (continued variability vs.
drastic change) and two socio-economic alternatives (globally- vs. regionally-oriented). Farmers and foresters
responses to these scenarios were consistent with current observed responses, with stronger adaptation actions
by farmers than by foresters, and with strong interactions with socio-economic conditions. In the case of
grasslands direct ecological and indirect management-related effects of drastic droughts resulted in a shift in
ecosystem services from currently predominant production and cultural services, to greater provision of regulation
services of interest to global society rather than to the local economy. In all cases trajectories of agricultural and
environmental policies, and decision support structures will be key determinants of the future of mountain socio-
ecological systems. Long-term observation of socio-ecological systems also appears essential to address
fundamental uncertainties on future trajectories, and to foster local adaptation.
Poster
SMALL AUTOMATED SENSOR OF PLANT FLOWERING AND VEGETATIVE BUD BREAK
Lintz, H.E. (1), Kruger, A. (2,3), and Niemeier, J.J. (2)
(1 ) Oregon Climate Change Research Institute, Oregon State University, Corvallis, OR, (2) IIHR-Hydroscience &
Engineering, University of Iowa, Iowa City,IA, (3) Department Electrical & Computer Engineering, University of
Iowa, Iowa City, IA
Biological events such as bud break and flowering have major implications on population dynamics and
ecosystem function in mountainous areas. For example, variation in the date of bud break, if measured precisely
and continuously, quantifies biological effects of climatic variation. Such ground-based quantification can
supplement and validate information acquired from satellite-borne sensors, which cannot resolve data to species
or monitor events when clouds are present. Although some validation of plant activity is being acquired with digital
cameras and networks of human observers, these options for measurement of bud break and flowering can be
costly and labor intensive. Digital cameras have sizeable power consumption and often do not resolve details
associated with vegetative bud break in evergreen plants. Here we describe a small automatic device that can be
placed on a plant to sense the date of bud opening that leads to leaf or flower formation. The device facilitates
continuous monitoring of plant buds at numerous sites. The device consists of an optical fiber that illuminates a
target bud with light obtained from an inexpensive light-emitting diode (LED). A second fiber detects reflected light
from the LED and guides it to a photodetector where the signal is amplified and then recorded. Changes in the
intensity of reflected light indicate changes in bud activity. Changes in the signal are recorded every fifteen
seconds and stored up to nine months without replacement of batteries. The sensor moves beyond the current
options of sensing flowering and bud break by offering high precision, automation, low power consumption, and
capacity for standardized, high-throughput phenotyping at the scale of plant buds.
Poster
CURRENT EVIDENCE FOR TREE SPECIES MIGRATION IN THE PACIFIC MOUNTAINOUS UNITED
STATES: LINKS TO CLIMATE CHANGE, MANAGEMENT, AND NATURAL DISTURBANCE
Lintz, H.E. (1), Yost, A. (2), Gray, A. (3), and Monleon, V. (3)
(1) Oregon Climate Change Research Institute, College of Earth Ocean and Atmospheric Science, Oregon State
University, Corvallis, OR; (2) Oregon Department of Forestry, Salem, OR; (3) Resource Monitoring and
Assessment Program, Pacific Northwest Research Station, USDA Forest Service, Corvallis, OR
Evidence for tree species migration was examined for the Pacific coastal and mountainous US by comparing the
geographic footprints and central tendencies of seedlings and adult trees by species. Data from the Forest
Inventory and Analysis Program were used. Frequency distributions between life stages were compared for
elevation, latitude, and longitude for all species with greater than 50 occurrences in California, Oregon, and
Washington. Our analyses show that migration distance and direction is variable by species, and Pinus monticola
and Cornus nuttallii are leading the pack in polar opposite directions. The majority of tree species show strong
and statistically significant evidence for migration. For example, the largest magnitude of difference is
approaching the lowest reported for tree species that migrated over longer periods of time associated with
Quaternary climate change. All drought tolerant species are moving northward. We also examined migration
signals in the context of climate anomalies, natural disturbance, and management. The distance and direction of
migratory gradients correspond to changes in long-term climate means and anomalies for summer relative
humidity, summer vapor pressure deficit, summer growing season length, and summer precipitation. Finally,
forest cutting was not related to migration gradients of species; however, natural disturbance interacted with
climate means and anomalies to explain variation in elevation changes for species. These analyses suggest that
long-term climate means interact with climate anomalies and disturbance to explain variation in current tree
species migration distances and directions.
Talk
RECONCILING DISPARATE TRENDS IN HIGH-ELEVATION HYDROLOGY AND LOW-ELEVATION
PRECIPITATION MEASUREMENTS: IS PRECIPITATION DECLINING IN PACIFIC NORTHWEST
MOUNTAINS?
Luce, Charles H. (1), Holden, Zachary A. (2), Abatzoglou, John (3), and Pederson, Greg (4)
(1) USDA Forest Service R&D, Boise, ID, (2) USDA Forest Service, Region 1, Missoula, MT, (3) University of
Idaho, Moscow, ID, (4) USGS Northern Rocky Mountain Science Center, Bozeman, MT
IPCC reports have repeatedly noted that mountain landscapes are among the most difficult places to predict the
effects of climate change on water resources. Declining snowpacks, earlier streamflow timing, and declining
streamflow are a few of the trends that have been noted in the mountains of the Pacific Northwest over the last 60
years. Efforts to answer questions regarding causality of the trends are partially hampered by the lack of
uninterrupted high elevation precipitation data spanning this period. The large observational network of
precipitation gages primarily located in lower-elevation valleys (USHCNv2) has seen only slight declines over the
same period, suggesting that most of the trends have been related to temperature increases. An important
assumption behind that conclusion, however, is that high elevation precipitation is strongly correlated with low
elevation precipitation. We present a series of interrelated analyses demonstrating that declines in orographic
enhancement of precipitation offer an additional mechanism for describing important geographical and temporal
patterns in observed trends and sensitivities. We also offer theory and observations supporting the idea that
trends in orographic precipitation may be a manifestation of warming air temperatures, potentially representing a
second pathway for climate change effects in mountain landscapes. The distinction in process is important.
Many ecological processes are much more sensitive to water balances than temperature, and the combined
effects may be more disruptive than anticipated. Furthermore, choices about adaptation for water resource
management are sensitive to mechanisms causing shifts in timing.
Poster
ALLOCATION TO CONSTITUTUVE DEFENSE PREDICTS MORTALITY IN PIÑON PINE DURING DROUGHTS
OF THE PAST CENTURY
Macalady, Alison K. (1), Kläy, Matthias (2), Bugmann, Harald (2), Gaylord, Monica E. (3), English, Nathan E. (4),
Allen, Craig D. (5), Swetnam Thomas S. (1), and McDowell Nate G. (6).
(1) University of Arizona, Laboratory of Tree-Ring Research, Tucson, AZ, (2) Swiss Federal Institute of
Technology (ETH), Dept of Environmental Systems Science, Forest Ecology, Zürich, Switzerland, (3) Northern
Arizona University, School of Forestry, Flagstaff, AZ, (4) School of Earth and Environmental Sciences, James
Cook University, Townsville, QLD, Australia, (5) USGS, Jemez Mountain Field Station, Los Alamos, NM (6) Los
Alamos National Laboratory, Earth and Environmental Sciences, Los Alamos, NM
Tree mortality associated with drought and insect infestations is widespread and has potentially cascading effects
in mountain ecosystems. However, models of forest dynamics are limited in their ability to simulate mortality
during drought, in part because the processes underlying tree death are poorly constrained. Allocation to defense
is hypothesized to be a key element in tree avoidance of mortality during drought accompanied by insect and
pathogen pressure, but there are few empirical tests of its importance in determining the fate of trees across
landscapes. Here we investigate the role of allocation to constitutive (background) defense in the mortality of
piñon pine (P. edulis) during two widespread drought-associated mortality events of the past century. We
measured vertical resin ducts in the tree rings of 102 pairs of trees that lived and died during the 2000s and 1950s
droughts at sites across a latitudinal gradient in New Mexico, USA. Statistical models of piñon mortality risk based
on resin duct parameters coupled with radial growth metrics correctly classify 85% of live and dead trees, with
consistently high validation statistics across sites and between drought events. This represents a major
improvement over models calibrated using growth metrics alone, and points to the importance of understanding
allocation to defense in refining our understanding of tree mortality during drought.
Poster
GLACIER NATIONAL PARK GLORIA SITES IN A REGIONAL CONTEXT
Malanson, George P. (1), Fagre, Daniel B. (2)
(1) Dept of Geography, University of Iowa, Iowa City, IA, (2) USGS Northern Rocky Mountain Science Center,
Glacier National Park, West Glacier, MT
What is the meaning of 5 years of change in the identity and abundance of plant species in GLORIA monitoring
sites? The amount of change in the GLORIA sites in Glacier National Park, MT, is examined. We compare the
compositional similarity and the ordination scores based on this similarity, using nonmetric multidimensional
scaling, when we use the GLORIA samples from 2004/5 and 2010 alone, with an additional 525 sites in GNP, and
with 36 of those other sites plus 376 more sites from across the West ranging from Mexico to central Alberta.
Although the similarity of sites changes significantly over ~5 years, the variability in alpine vegetation within GNP
and across the West is so much greater that the temporal changes appear small in spatial context. Alpine
vegetation would seem to be resilient based on its diversity, but its heterogeneity may represent narrow niches
closely constrained by climate.
Poster
SHOULD I STAY OR SHOULD I GO? STAGNANT AND ADVANCING TREELINES IN ALPINE AND
SUBARCTIC LOCALITIES
Mamet, Steven D. (1) and Kershaw, G. Peter (2)
(1) Department of Biology, University of Saskatchewan, Saskatoon, SK,(2) Department of Earth and Atmospheric
Sciences, University of Alberta, Edmonton
The prevailing theory regarding circumboreal treeline formation is that temperature during the growing season
limits tree growth. However, site-level characteristics become increasingly important as treeline heterogeneity
increases from global to smaller scales. As part of an International Polar Year project, several levels of
mechanisms limiting treeline at the site-scale were studied at two locales in Canada: the alpine treeline (AT) of
the western Mackenzie Mountains, NWT, and latitudinal treeline (LT) around Churchill, MB. LT around Churchill
consisted of diffuse patterns of decreasing tree density from forest to tundra, while tree islands dominated at the
AT. The mechanisms studied, in order of magnitude of hypothesized effect, included: tree performance, stress,
and neighbor effects (competition/facilitation). Stand infilling and treeline advance has occurred at both locales
st
during previous warm periods. While the LT at Churchill continues to advance during the early 21 century, the
AT has become stagnant and tree islands only persist through layering. Temperature appears to be the primary
forcing of historical treeline advance, though population dynamics at the AT have decoupled from temperature in
recent decades. Stressors that can affect tree performance, such as wind blown snow abrasion, or adverse
neighbor effects such as competition, are not likely to significantly alter population dynamics at treeline around the
sites studied here. Most remarkably, larch around Churchill has increased dramatically in terms of growth and
reproduction—a phenomenon observed prominently around the circumboreal treeline. This study suggests that in
the absence of increased natural or anthropogenic disturbances and/or moisture stress, treeline shall continue to
advance around Churchill, potentially with a change from spruce to larch-dominated communities. Despite
significantly increased growth rates during the last several decades, no true seedlings have been found within the
western Mackenzie Mountains since at least 2006, and reproduction has been exclusively asexual. The disparity
in response between the LT and AT studied here, highlights the need for consideration, not just of climate, but of
treeline form (i.e., diffuse versus tree island) and autecology in treeline dynamics.
Poster
RECENT RESPONSE OF THE GLOBAL WATER BALANCE TO WARMING
McCabe, Gregory J. (1), and Wolock, David M. (2)
(1) U.S. Geological Survey, Denver, Colorado, (2) U.S. Geological Survey, Lawrence, Kansas
An analysis of simulated global water-balance components (precipitation [P], actual evapotranspiration [AET],
runoff [Q], and potential evapotranspiration [PET]) (on a 0.5 degree by 0.5 degree grid) for the past century (1905
through 2009) indicates that P has been the primary driver of variability in Q. Additionally, since about 2000, there
have been increases in P, AET, Q, and PET for most of the globe. The increases in Q during the most recent
decade have occurred despite unprecedented increases in PET. The increases in Q are the result of substantial
increases in P during the cool Northern Hemisphere months (i.e. October through March) when PET increases
were relatively small; the largest PET increases occurred during the warm Northern Hemisphere months (April
through September). Changes in water-balance variables appear large from the perspective of departures from
the long-term means. When put into the context of the magnitudes of the raw water balance variable values,
however, there appears to have been little change in any of the water-balance variables over the past century on
regional and global averaged scales.
Talk
INTRODUCING NEVCAN: THE NEVADA CLIMATE-ECOHYDROLOGICAL ASSESSMENT NETWORK OF
REAL-TIME VERY HIGH RESOLUTION ENVIRONMENTAL DATA IN THE GREAT BASIN
Mensing, Scott (1), Strachan, Scotty (1), Biondi, Franco (1), Devitt, Dale (3), Fenstermaker, Lynn (2), Arnone, Jay
(2), Saito, Laurel (1), Bird, Brian (3), Lyles, Brad (2), McCurdy, Greg (2), Lancaster, Nicholas (2), and Piechota,
Thomas (3)
(1) University of Nevada, Reno, NV, (2) Desert Research Institute, Reno, NV, (3) University of Nevada, Las
Vegas, NV
Long term environmental monitoring in the Great Basin region has been historically sparse. Knowledge of
landscape processes and ecosystem functions across the diverse topography of the Basin and Range province is
generally limited to individual studies and these data are neither consolidated nor uniform in methods and
location. The three major institutions concerned with higher education and research in Nevada (UNR, UNLV, DRI)
have established a network of long-term environmental monitoring sites covering the primary ecological life zones
in two central Great Basin mountain ranges: NevCAN (for Nevada Climate-ecohydrological Assessment Network).
These sites are equipped to establish a baseline of meteorological, hydrological, and ecological data and begin to
achieve the goal of quantifying linkages between climate variability and ecosystem processes that modulate water
availability. NevCAN thus seeks to expanded research services and focused experimental science. Real-time,
high-speed networking ties all sites together and links all systems to the NevCAN Cyberinfrastructure. The Snake
Range transect in eastern Nevada, has eight stations that form valley-mountain-valley transects from 1885 m
(6000 ft) up to 3460 m (11,000 ft) elevation. Salt Desert, Sagebrush, Pinyon-Juniper, Montane, and Subalpine life
zones are represented. The Sheep Range transect in southern Nevada, and 300 km south of the Snake Range
transect,, has five stations that begins in the Creosote Bush and move through the Blackbrush, Pinyon-Cliffrose,
Montane, and Subalpine communities. One year of baseline data from these stations are presented,
demonstrating the value of concurrent observations across the elevational gradients and the functionality of the
systems. The NevCAN team encourages collaboration during this early stage to enhance the science deliverables
and sustainability of these geographically unique study areas.
Poster
ELEVATION DEPENDENT WARMING: WHERE, WHEN, AND WHY
Miller, James (1), Rangwala, Imtiaz (1), Naud, Catherine (2), and Chen, Yonghua (2)
(1) Rutgers University, New Brunswick, NJ, (2) Columbia University, New York, NY
In some high elevation regions there is evidence that temperatures are warming faster than the global average,
and the warming appears to be elevation dependent in some cases. Among the factors that can contribute to this
enhanced warming are clouds, atmospheric water vapor, snow cover, aerosols, and the land surface. One of the
difficulties in trying to quantify the relationships and feedbacks among climate variables is that observations are
often sparse or non-existent in these complex topographic regions. Another difficulty is that the enhanced
warming is usually occurring in response to more than one climate variable, and furthermore, these variables are
often correlated with each other. We provide several examples of enhanced high-elevation warming in different
regions, discuss seasonal and inter-decadal variability, and suggest mechanisms that might be responsible for the
temperature enhancements. We also demonstrate that a neural net scheme can be used to quantify sensitivities
between pairs of climate variables (e.g., the relationship between surface downward longwave radiation and
atmospheric water vapor) and that satellite retrievals can help to expand the observational database.
Talk
RESPONDING TO CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS IN THE SKY ISLAND REGION: FROM PLANNING TO
ACTION
Misztal, Louise (1), Garfin, G. (2), and Hansen, L. (3)
(1) Sky Island Alliance, Tucson, AZ, (2) School of Natural Resources and the Environment, University of Arizona,
Tucson, AZ, (3) EcoAdapt, Bainbridge Island, WA
Addressing the growing impacts of climate change on natural resources requires multiple organizations, agencies,
and institutions working cooperatively to incorporate climate change into resource management. In the Sky Island
region of the southwestern United States and northern Mexico, Sky Island Alliance, a non-governmental
organization, is leading the convening of a series of climate change adaptation workshops in cooperation with a
variety of agencies and organizations. This talk demonstrates a process and methodology for convening federal
and state agencies, local governments, non-profit organizations, tribal representatives, private landowners, and
academic researchers in order to develop, on-the-ground and policy-level actions through climate change
adaptation planning. Key outcomes of the workshops include: identification of climate change threats to and
vulnerabilities of Madrean Forest, Riparian, Desert and Grassland ecosystems in the Sky Island region; analysis
of direct and indirect climate change threats and interacting factors; a list of ecosystem specific adaptation options
for the region, a plan for implementation of one adaptation strategy and development of a regional network of
professionals working cooperatively to improve natural resource management under changing conditions. This
talk highlights implementation of a cross-jurisdictional adaptation strategy to inventory, assess, and prioritize
spring resources in the Sky Island region. Project components include creation of an online database accessible
to all managers in the region, development of new information on springs in areas of high interest to managers,
engagement of volunteers in spring assessment protocol training and data collection and management planning
for springs in the context of climate change. This talk demonstrates one approach for addressing the
management and conservation challenges posed by climate change through collaborative engagement at a
regional scale.
Invited Talk
SUPERENSEMBLE REGIONAL CLIMATE MODELING FOR THE WESTERN US: A NEW WAY OF SEEING
MOUNTAIN CLIMATES
Mote, Philip W (1), Rupp, David (1), Novak, Kayla (2), Jones, Richard (3), and Allen, Myles (4)
(1) Oregon Climate Change Research Institute, Oregon State University, Corvallis OR, (2) San Jose State
University, (3) UK Met Office Hadley Centre, (4) Oxford University
For over a decade, a citizen science experiment called climateprediction.net organized by Oxford University has
used computer time contributed by over 80,000 volunteers around the world to create superensembles of global
climate simulations. A new climateprediction.net experiment built by Oxford University, the UK Meteorological
Office, UW, and OSU, and released in late 2011, brings these computing resources to bear on regional climate
modeling for the Western US. With a spatial resolution of 25km, this modeling framework permits important
topographical features -- mountain ranges and valleys -- to be resolved and to influence simulated climate, which
consequently includes many important observed features of climate. More unusually, the large ensemble size
(>160,000 members as of July 2012) permits novel approaches to quantifying uncertainty. Simulations using
observed sea surface temperatures (SSTs) over the 1960-2010 period compare favorably with observations;
perturbing initial conditions and physics parameter values provides estimates of uncertainty and a measure of the
importance of model formulation to regional climate, and the thousands of simulations (both 20th and 21st
century) offer a new approach to envisioning future regional climate both for means and for significant types of
extremes.
Poster
PHYSIOLOGICAL STRESSES OF LIMBER PINE SEEDLINGS AT AND ABOVE TREELINE IMMEDIATELY
FOLLOWING NATURAL AND EXPERIMENTALLY ADVANCED SNOWMELT
Moyes, Andrew B. (1), Germino, Matthew J. (2), and Kueppers, Lara M. (1, 3)
(1) University of California, Merced, CA, (2) US Geological Survey, Boise, ID, (3) Lawrence Berkeley National
Laboratory, Berkeley, CA
Treeline positions are anticipated to shift uphill in response to climate warming, a prediction which depends on
future seedling recruitment at and above the current distribution limits of subalpine trees. To examine the role of
cold temperature in seedling establishment at treeline, we measured physiological performance of limber pine
seedlings after surviving their first winter in heated and ambient temperature plots within the Alpine Treeline
Warming Experiment. Fluorometric measurements of maximum photosystem II efficiency (F v/Fm) indicated
severe photoinhibition 10 days following melt (Fv/Fm near 0), but photoinhibition diminished over the subsequent
10 days. Over the same period, seedlings showed highly variable degrees of moisture stress in midday stem
water potentials (Ψ) associated with frost drought and freeze-thaw embolism, despite consistently abundant
afternoon soil moisture. Many seedlings would not exude water under maximum measurement pressure (Ψ < -5
MPa) across all sampling dates (up to 60 days following melt), indicating high spatial variability in cold-associated
moisture stress, and possibly limited xylem conduit refilling. Net CO2 assimilation appeared to be independently
limited by photoinhibition and moisture stress. Although these stresses were not significantly impacted by the
timing of snowmelt or whether seeds were sourced from high or low elevation provenances, the observation of
severe cold stress indicates that seedling establishment above treeline will be sensitive to future patterns of
snowmelt and air temperature.
Poster
COMBINING GEOSPATIAL VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT AND SCENARIO PLANNING FOR CLIMATE
ADAPTATION: A FIRE MANAGEMENT EXAMPLE
Nydick, Koren R. (1), Schwartz, M. (2), Moritz, Max (3), and Sydoriak, Charisse (1)
(1) USDOI National Park Service, Sequoia & Kings Canyon National Parks, Three Rivers, CA, (2) University of
California at Davis, Department of Environmental Science & Policy, Davis, CA,(3) University of California at
Berkeley, Department of Environmental Science, Policy & Management, Berkeley, CA
Scientists and land managers in the Southern Sierra Nevada are working together to re-evaluate fire
management in a changing climate. Fire is a potent resource management tool and potential stressor because of
its strong linkage to climate and direct and indirect effects on the environment and people. We set out to develop
knowledge, process, and tools to describe the future in a useful way for planning, to identify what resources are
vulnerable and where, and to help us prioritize management strategies across the landscape. The novel process
involves three tools: (1) a geospatial vulnerability assessment that uses downscaled GCM output and analyzes
vegetation stress related to climate and fire; (2) scenario-based planning that considers multiple futures,
incorporates both ecological and socio-political uncertainties, and lets us think “outside the box” where models
currently cannot go; and (3) an interactive planning exercise that integrates the two – “Making it Real” and giving
us practice in adaptation planning. The combined ecological/socio-political scenarios have names like “Ecosystem
Management”, “Water Wars Ignite”, and “Mega Fire Looms”. The integrative process has proven powerful to
combine disparate information and actively engage participants in new ways of thinking while making the results
relevant to on-the-ground management.
Poster
COMPLEX MOUNTAIN LANDSCAPES RCN-SEES: ADVANCING OUR SOCIAL AND ENVIRONMENTAL
UNDERSTANDING OF COMPLEX MOUNTAIN LANDSCAPES AND THEIR VULNERABILITY TO
ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE
Pinel, Sandra (1), Gosz, Jim (1) Norton Todd (2); Stanford, Jack (3); and Crabtree, Robert (3)
(1) University of Idaho, Moscow, ID, (2) Washington State University, Pullman, WA, (3) University of Montana,
Missoula, MT
Mountain-valley environments are complex landscapes characterized by steep biophysical gradients with many
areas experiencing profound socioeconomic transitions (i.e. population growth, land-use change). Human-
environment relationships in these landscapes vary from emerging amenity orientations associated with
demographic changes to communities with lasting legacies in extractive natural resource enterprises.
Sustainability and resilience of these landscapes remains uncertain and is a function of the ability of the systems
to respond to change under shifting social, cultural, ecological, and economic forces. The Complex Mountain
Landscapes RCN will address the overarching question: How can we reduce the vulnerability of natural and
human systems in complex mountain landscapes through research partnerships? The RCN will develop
effective ways to organize and coordinate research and education that will improve the science needed to inform
policy and management decisions. This will be accomplished by the initiation of multidisciplinary, integrated
efforts among academic, governmental, and tribal institutions and entities. Existing information systems will be
coupled with new tools and technologies to address questions of strategic regional, national and international
importance. The initial effort will capitalize on a well-studied region in the Northern Rockies of the US and
Canada, which includes a rich mix of landscape conditions from Wilderness to rapidly developing urban areas. It
will serve as a model as we expand the research to other complex mountain landscapes. Large amounts of data
already exist but better integration is needed across various disciplines, including modeling and synthesis efforts
which deal efficiently with the complexity of coupled natural and human systems and effectively inform policy and
decision makers. This project will stress collaboration and integration of socio-economic and biophysical sciences
across multiple universities, federal, tribal, and state agencies, building upon and expanding existing partnerships
to improve social and ecological resilience and sustainability.
Invited Talk
LATE QUATERNARY CLIMATE VARIABILITY IN THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST OF THE UNITED STATES:
EVIDENCE FROM SUB-FOSSIL MIDGE ANALYSIS
Porinchu, David F. (1), Reinemann, S. A. (2), and Haskett, D. (1)
(1) University of Georgia, Department of Geography, Athens GA, (2) The Ohio State University, Department of
Geography, Columbus OH
The geochemical, physical and biotic characteristics of lake sediments have successfully been used to provide
valuable reconstructions of recent and long-term climate and environmental change in the Intermountain West of
the United States. Increasing the number of lengthy, high-resolution, quantitative records describing the response
of the Intermountain West to late Quaternary climate perturbations will improve our understanding of past climate
variability and may provide insight into future regional conditions. I will review the contribution of sub-fossil midges
to our understanding of late Quaternary climate change in this region and survey recent advances and on-going
research pertaining to sub-fossil midge analysis. Specifically, I will discuss: 1) the expansion of the existing Great
Basin midge calibration set to incorporate lakes from central Colorado and the development of associated midgebased surface water temperature and air temperature inference models; 2) evidence for elevated mean July
temperature during the Medieval Climate Anomaly, making reference to a high-resolution (multi-decadal)
chironomid-based reconstruction from the central Great Basin; 3) the differential response of midge communities
in low, mid- and high elevation lakes in the eastern Sierra Nevada to post-glacial climate amelioration during the
Pleistocene-Holocene transition; and 4) the role of sub-fossil midge analysis in the on-going Snow mastodon
project.
Poster
EFFECTS OF PRECIPITATION CHANGE ON POPULATION DYNAMICS OF BROMUS TECTORUM
Prevéy, Janet S., Seastedt, Timothy R.
University of Colorado, Boulder, CO
Shifts in precipitation patterns resulting from global climate change are expected to affect composition and
ecosystem function of plant communities. In the Front Range of Colorado, Bromus tectorum (cheatgrass) and
other non-native winter annuals are invading native grasslands. As the climate warms, yearly precipitation may
shift to a more winter-wet pattern, and this shift may benefit early-growing winter annuals, such as cheatgrass, to
the detriment of native species. For this study, we measured responses of cheatgrass to simulated changes in
precipitation patterns in a grassland near Boulder, Colorado. In 2010, three precipitation treatments were created
based on climate model predictions for Colorado: winter-wet, winter-wet/summer-wet, and winter-wet/summer dry.
In addition, a winter-dry/summer-wet treatment was added to simulate historical conditions. Cheatgrass was
hypothesized to have greater survival, growth, and seed production in treatments receiving supplemental winter
precipitation, and lower survival and seed production in the control and winter-dry treatment. In 2011 and 2012,
cover, survival, fecundity, and biomass of cheatgrass were measured in the different treatments. In 2012,
demographic data were used to estimate population growth rates of cheatgrass in the different treatments.
In spring 2011, cheatgrass was more abundant in winter-wet treatments than in the control or winter-dry
treatment. However, biomass and seed production of cheatgrass did not differ between treatments (p > 0.05). In
2012, cover, biomass, and seed production were greater in winter-wet treatments than in the control or winter-dry
treatment (p < 0.05). Population growth rates were highest for cheatgrass growing in the winter-wet treatment,
and negative (indicating population decline) in the summer-wet/ winter-dry treatment. Contrasting results in 2011
and 2012 can be partially explained by different patterns of ambient precipitation in winter and spring. These
preliminary results demonstrate the sensitivity of cheatgrass populations to precipitation timing, and indicate that
cheatgrass may become more invasive in grasslands along the Front Range as the climate changes.
Poster
AMPLIFIED WATER VAPOR FEEDBACK AT HIGH ELEVATIONS DURING WINTER
Rangwala, Imtiaz (1,2), Miller, James R. (1), and Barsugli, Joseph (2)
(1) Dept. of Marine and Coastal Sciences, Rutgers University, (2) Physical Sciences Division, NOAA-ESRL
In recent decades, several high altitude regions around the globe have experienced large warming trends during
winter which are often higher relative to the trends in other seasons. Increases in the atmospheric water vapor
and its role in amplifying the surface longwave heating in these regions have been suggested to be partially
responsible for this enhanced wintertime warming. Results from a radiative transfer model demonstrate that,
during winter, much greater increases in downward longwave radiation occur in high altitude regions, relative to
low altitude regions, for similar increases in the lower atmospheric water vapor. This occurs because downward
longwave radiation is very sensitive to atmospheric water vapor at high elevations, owing to a greater degree of
optical under-saturation in the longwave absorption at these altitudes. Also discussed are observational
relationships between downward longwave radiation and humidity at high elevation sites (>11,000 ft) in the
Colorado Rocky Mountains. These relationships show the existence of large sensitivities between the two
variables during winter at these elevations.
Invited Talk
WESTERN CLIMATE 2011-2012 IN PERSPECTIVE
Redmond, Kelly T.
Western Regional Climate Center, Desert Research Institute, Reno NV
The period covered here is from the last PACLIM Workshop in March 2011 until MTNCLIM 2012.
The winter of 2010-11 extended through all of spring and into early climatological summer. Snowpack in some
locations reached its maximum extent or depth into June, especially in the Sierra Nevada and in the Colorado
River headwaters. Record volume and lateness of runoff were experienced in Utah and Colorado. In Arizona
and New Mexico severe drought continued from winter and intensified.
Spring was warm except for a cool strip along the coast. Summer precipitation was lighter than usual including
the monsoon region. Summer was cool in the Pacific Northwest and California, shading to extremely warm in
eastern New Mexico. The entire region was deficient in precipitation during autumn, with temperatures near to
somewhat above average. Winter continued the extreme dryness, a major turnaround from a year earlier, with
warm conditions mostly confined to Montana and part of Wyoming. Except for a narrow coastal strip, spring was
dry and very warm nearly everywhere else. The Colorado River fell from one of its highest runoff years in history
to one of the lowest in 2012. La Nina was present during winter 2010-11 but gave way to weak El Nino conditions
as of mid-July. Globally 2011 was cool at the start and end, and warm during boreal summer, warming into
boreal summer of 2012. Arctic sea ice extent was low during winter and remained on a near minimum pace into
mid-summer. The fire season was active in 2011 with 8.7 million acres of wildland fire. Fire potential in 2012 was
at August levels by April in the Great Basin. The year 2012 brought extremely large fires to New Mexico and
Oregon, and very destructive fires to Colorado, though the year lagged or just barely exceeded long term
averages for acreage by mid-summer, perhaps indicative of lack of very large grass fires until July 2012. Other
phenomena of interest were noted and will be discussed.
Poster
A VULNERABILTY ASSESSMENT TOOL FOR ADAPTING YELLOWSTONE CUTTHROAT TROUT TO
CLIMATE CHANGE ON THE SHOSHONE NATIONAL FOREST, WYOMING
Rice, Janine M. (1), Joyce, Linda A. (2), Baggett, L. Scott (2), Zubik, Ray (3), Armel, Bryan (3), Cary, Karri L. (3),
and Bevenger, Greg (4)
(1) University of Colorado, Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Science, Western Water
Assessment, Rocky Mountain Research Station, Fort Collins, CO,(2) USDA, Forest Service, Rocky Mountain
Research Station, Fort Collins, CO,(3) USDA, Forest Service, Shoshone National Forest, Cody, WY, (4) USDA,
Forest Service, Intermountain Region, Ogden, UT
Ecosystems of the central Rocky Mountains are likely to experience a 1.7 °C (3 °F) temperature increase by
2050. The native cold-water salmonid, Yellowstone cutthroat trout (Oncorhynchus clarkii bouvieri), occupying
many of these mountain streams have experienced a region-wide population distribution reduction to 42% of its
historical range. In addition, this salmonid is expected to be sensitive to future changes in climate. To help meet
information needs for management and conservation efforts, a customized vulnerability assessment tool for
Yellowstone cutthroat trout on the Shoshone National Forest was developed. Indicators relevant to the salmonid
for climate change exposure effects as well as inherent landscape, anthropogenic, and ecologic factors are used
to derive vulnerability scores at the stream segment scale. Results showed an overall medium vulnerability with
some improving conditions but spatially complex patterns over time. Improvements of conditions tended to occur
at higher elevation mountain streams where stream temperatures warmed and opened up thermally suitable
habitat. Degradation of conditions tended to occur at lower elevations where rain became more prevalent in
runoff. Under climate decadal extremes, the majority of streams showed similar trends of vulnerability, however
hotter conditions produced the highest vulnerability overall. The vulnerability assessment tool provided Forest
Service resource managers information to help guide conservation project planning and identify locations for
monitoring that capture the range of potential vulnerability conditions. The Shoshone National Forest hosts an
important and dynamic salmonid habitat with its high elevation stream networks, lakes and ponds, and this
vulnerability assessment tool pointed out that these stream habitats may serve as future refugia for Yellowstone
cutthroat trout populations.
Invited Talk
ROLE OF HUMAN INTERVENTION IN CLIMATE ADAPTATION
Running, Steve
College of Forestry and Conservation, University of Montana, Missoula, MT
Invited Talk
DISTURBANCE REGIMES AND DISTURBANCE WINDOWS: CONTEMPORARY POST-FIRE PHENOLOGY IN
THE BASIN AND RANGE, USA
Sankey, Joel
U.S. Geological Survey, Flagstaff, AZ
Wildland fire frequency, size, and season length have increased in many parts of the world in recent decades.
Fire can accelerate land degradation processes such as erosion due to combustion of vegetation that stabilizes
the soil surface. I present a novel indicator, based on remote sensing of vegetation greenness dynamics
(phenology), that measures temporal variability between fire and the reemergence of green vegetation. The
indicator was applied as a proxy for short-term, post-fire disturbance windows in shrubland ecosystems of the
Great Basin and Columbia Plateau of the western USA; where a disturbance window is defined as the time
required for an ecological or geomorphic process that is altered to return to pre-disturbance levels. The indicator
was determined using time series data from MODIS and AVHRR NDVI and publically available large fire
databases to examine variability in disturbance windows for historical wildland fires that burned during the past
two decades. The historical fires included replicated post-fire reseeding treatments. Disturbance windows were
examined relative to the day of the year that fires burned and seeding treatments to consider effects of
contemporary variability in fire regime and management activities. Early season fires appeared to result in longer
time that soils remained relatively bare of the protective cover of vegetation after fires, indicating that
contemporary changes of increased length of the annual fire season could have indirect effects on land
degradation. Also noteworthy was that reemergence of vegetation did not occur more quickly after fire in sites
treated with post-fire seeding, which is a strategy commonly employed to accelerate vegetation recovery. Future
work with the indicator could examine the magnitude of common post-disturbance processes such as erosion, soil
hydrologic response, or carbon cycling, as a function of disturbance windows, possibly using simulation modeling
and historical wildfire information.
Invited Talk
DEVELOPING CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION STRATEGIES FOR MOUNTAIN COMMUNITIES IN THE
COLUMBIA BASIN
Schreier, Hans
Faculty of Land & Food Systems, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, B.C., Canada
A comprehensive climate change adaptation program is under way in the Canadian portion of the Columbia Basin
and so far seven communities and several regional districts have adapted strategies to reduce the risk of climate
change impacts. During community consultation processes it because apparent that water issues, fire risk and
food security where of greatest concerns. Investigations showed that the domestic water use in the participating
communities is exceptionally high, the water supplies are highly uncertain, and flooding is a continuing and
reoccurring issues. As part of the adaptation strategy, all communities committed themselves to a 30% reducing
in domestic water use over the next 3 years. Water supplies are to be reassessed and diversified, and innovative
methods are to be used to reduce the amount of water and contaminants originating from conventional
stormwater management systems. Surprisingly, food security was identified as a major issue particularly in the
Okanagan sub-basin which represent the driest areas in Canada and has a relatively favourable climate for fruit
production. Water balance modelling showed that the largest amount of water use in the Okanagan is for
agriculture, and forage crops use the largest amount of irrigation water. Modelling water use for all crops showed
that grapes are the most efficient water users and also have the highest value, with forage crops being among the
largest water users with the lowest value. Comparing the water use for food production during a dry year (2003)
and a wet year (1998) showed an average of 33% difference and serves as a good indicator of emerging water
problems as climate warming proceeds. The research has shown that a good adaptive strategy for food
production is to focus on growing water efficient crops with higher values and reducing the virtual water trade.
Each community has initiated a different climate change adaptation strategy and this provides an excellent
learning opportunity for the remaining 15 community in the Columbia Basin. The plan is to have most of the
remaining communities involved in some measures of climate change adapting and the lessons learned from this
original consultation process if proving to be very useful.
Invited Talk
RECONSTRUCTING ALPINE SNOWPACKS USING DIATOM INFERENCE MODELS AND LONG-TERM
RECORDS OF LAKE HYDROCHEMISTRY
Sickman, Jim
Dept of Environmental Sciences, University of California, Riverside, CA
Understanding of the underlying causes of interannual and long-term variation in Pacific mountain snowpack is
hampered by short instrumental records and the difficulties in reconstructing past snowpack dynamics using tree
rings. We propose that diatom-based reconstructions of acid neutralizing capacity (ANC) in mountain lakes can
be used with lake-specific relationships between ANC and snow water equivalence (SWE) to reconstruct
snowpack variability from diatoms preserved in lake sediments. Our 30-year investigation of the Emerald Lake
watershed in the Sierra Nevada has revealed tight coupling between lake chemistry and snowpack dynamics. The
ANC of lake water during the early autumn is negatively correlated with the SWE of the antecedent spring
2
snowpack (R = 0.85). This inverse relationship is explained by the dilution and titration of alkalinity generated
from basin weathering by acidic snowmelt water. In years with large antecedent snowpacks, summer and autumn
lake-ANC is depressed more deeply and for longer duration compared to years with shallower snowpack. We
used the ANC:SWE relationship for Emerald Lake along with a 185-year record of diatom-reconstructed ANC to
reconstruct Emerald Lake SWE from 1825 through 2010. This SWE reconstruction was highly correlated with
discharge in the Sacramento River indicating that snowpack variability at Emerald Lake captured a large
proportion of the temporal variability in snowpack and river runoff for the entire Sierra Nevada. Using this new
paleo proxy, we can potentially reconstruct snowpack water content and river runoff for the Sierra Nevada and
southern Cascades over millennial time-scales.
Poster
NEAR-SURFACE AIR TEMPERATURE PATTERNS IN COMPLEX TERRAIN, SAN FRANCISCO PEAKS,
ARIZONA
Simeral, David, B., (1) (2) (3) and Albright, Thomas, P., (2)
Desert Research Institute, Division of Atmospheric Sciences, Reno, NV, (2) University of Nevada, Reno,
Department of Geography, Reno, NV, (3) Western Regional Climate Center, Reno, NV
(1)
Near-surface temperature is an important parameter for modeling local climate regimes and understanding a
variety of biological, ecological, and hydrologic processes. Temperatures are often driven by finer-scale
conditions where site-specific data are normally not available. In such cases, climate mapping applications, such
as Parameter–Elevation Regressions on Independent Slopes Model (PRISM), are commonly used. However,
these applications may not always resolve air temperature fields and associated lapse rates on a scale necessary
to understand biological and ecological processes in mountainous terrain. Our goal was to measure temperature
variation on an isolated mountain in order to infer the roles of elevation, slope, aspect, time period, and synoptic
variability on observed patterns and lapse rates on various temporal scales. To that end, we established an
altitudinal gradient network of micrologger sensors spanning the cardinal directions of the San Francisco Peaks
(35.35°N, -111.68°; 3851m), the highest mountain in Arizona. The observational network consisted of four
evenly-spaced transects (200 m interval) consisting of six sites spanning in elevation from 2500 m to 3500 m
2
above mean sea level and covering an approximate area of 325 km . We also sought to compare our
measurements to the PRISM 800 m dataset for the contemporaneous period and to free-atmosphere
measurements from the National Weather Service radiosonde station (FGZ) situated ~12 km to the southwest.
-1
Observed monthly mean lapse rates ranged from 4.4° to 10.3°C/km for 2010-12. Seasonally, observed lapse
rates were steepest during JJA while shallowest during DJF with strong variation according to both spatial and
temporal factors. Results from the network observations versus PRISM displayed an overall, cold bias by PRISM
for monthly TMIN values.
Poster
DIATOM RECORD OF HOLOCENE LAKE LEVEL AND MOISTURE VARIABILITY IN THE NORTHERN RUBY
MOUNTAINS, NEVADA
Starratt, Scott W.
U.S. Geological Survey, 345 Middlefield Road, Menlo Park, CA 94025
The north-central Great Basin is affected by bimodal precipitation sources, dominated by winter (NovemberFebruary) precipitation from the eastern Pacific Ocean augmented by late spring (May-June) convectional
precipitation. Reconstruction of past moisture variability has proven difficult due to the limited paleoclimate
records and the effect of lake (depth, bathymetric profile) and local watershed (elevation, aspect, bedrock
geology) characteristics. Surface sediment was collected from tarns in the northern Ruby Mountains (Lamoille
Lake, 2976 masl, 5.5 ha; Upper Dollar Lake, 2942 masl, ~1 ha, 2 m deep; Lower Dollar Lake, 2937masl, ~1 ha, 2
m deep; Liberty Lake, 3064masl, 8.5 ha, 33 m deep; Castle Lake, 2980 masl, 5.7 ha, 4.6 m deep; Favre Lake,
2902 masl, 7.7 ha, 12.0 m deep), and East Humboldt Range (Angel Lake, 2553 masl, 5.2 ha, 9 m deep). The
bedrock underlying all the watersheds is early Paleozoic marble and Mesozoic granite and metamorphic rocks. A
series of cores were collected in Favre Lake using a modified Livingstone piston corer. The presence of the
Mazama ash in the basal sediment (~4 m below the sediment/water interface) indicates the record extends to
~7,700 cal yr B.P. Between about 7,700 and 6,000 cal yr B.P. the diatom flora is dominated by a diverse
assemblage of benthic species. The remainder of the core is dominated by Fragilaria, suggesting that lake level
rose and flooded the shelf that surrounds the depocenter of the lake. The upper part of the Favre Lake record
contains an increase in the abundance of Cyclotella, suggesting an increase in the amount of water entering the
lake from Liberty Lake, where Cyclotella is a significant part of the flora.
Poster
ASSESSING ACCURACY OF A PROBABILISTIC MODEL FOR VERY LARGE FIRE IN THE ROCKY
MOUNTAINS: A HIGH PARK FIRE CASE STUDY
Stavros, E. Natasha (1), Abatzoglou, John (2), Larkin, Sim (3), McKenzie, Don (3), Steel, E. Ashley (3)
(1) University of Washington, School of Environmental and Forest Sciences, Seattle, WA, (2) University of Idaho,
Department of Geography, Moscow, ID, (3) Pacific Wildland Fire Sciences Lab, Forest Service, Seattle, WA
Across the western United States, the largest wildfires account for a major proportion of the area burned and
substantially affect mountain forests and their associated ecosystem services, among which is pristine air quality.
These fires commandeer national attention and significant fire suppression resources. Despite efforts to
understand the influence of fuel loading, climate, and weather on annual area burned, few studies have focused
on understanding what abiotic factors enable and drive the very largest wildfires. We investigated the correlation
between both antecedent climate and in-situ biophysical variables and very large (>20,000 ha) fires in the western
United States from 1984 to 2009. We built logistic regression models, at the spatial scale of the national
Geographic Area Coordination Centers (GACCs), to estimate the probability that a given day is conducive to a
very large wildfire. Models vary in accuracy and in which variables are the best predictors. In a case study of the
conditions of the High Park Fire, neighboring Fort Collins, Colorado, occurring in early summer 2012, we evaluate
the predictive accuracy of the model for the Rocky Mountain GACC.
Talk
DECLINING WATER QUALITY IN SIERRA NEVADA MOUNTAIN STREAMS UNDER PROJECTED CLIMATIC
CHANGES
Stewart, Iris T. (1), Ficklin, Darren L. (1), and Maurer, Edwin P. (2)
(1) Santa Clara University, Department of Environmental Studies and Sciences, Santa Clara, CA, (2) Santa Clara
University, Department of Civil Engineering, Santa Clara, CA
Expected climatic changes by 2100 in the Sierra Nevada include warmer surface air temperatures and overall
precipitation declines. We seek to understand how these climatic changes might drive changes in water quality,
namely stream temperature, dissolved oxygen (DO) concentration, and sediment concentration in connection with
hydrologic changes for a water-limited, snowmelt-dominated mountain stream system, such as the California
Sierra Nevada. Output from an ensemble of General Circulation Model (GCM) projections were used for two
emission scenarios to drive the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT), with a new integrated stream
temperature model. Results indicate that stream temperatures during the Spring and Summer seasons are likely
to increase by several degrees throughout the Sierra Nevada, accompanied by declines of DO and sediment
concentrations. Some of the low-elevation subbasins of the southern Sierra Nevada, could reach average monthly
stream temperatures of 25 - 30 ºC during Summer. The projected decreases in water quality are largely correlated
with changes in hydrology and suggest substantial ecological consequences for these mountain stream
ecosystems.
Poster
CRITICAL INFRASTRUCTURE: DESIGN OF INTERDISCIPLINARY REMOTE ENVIRONMENTAL
MONITORING STATIONS
,
Strachan, Scotty (1), Slater Dave (2), Lyles, Brad (3), Smith, Ken (2), and McMahon, Mike (4)
(1) Department of Geography, University of Nevada, Reno, NV, (2) Nevada Seismological Laboratory, University
of Nevada, Reno, NV, (3) Division of Hydrologic Sciences, Desert Research Institute, Reno, NV, (4) Department
of Computer Sciences, University of Nevada, Reno, NV
Projections of environmental changes due to climate variability and human disturbance underscore the need for
in-situ landscape monitoring to provide baseline and future assessment information for scientists and managers
alike. As on-site field data acquisition evolves towards collaborative, multi-disciplinary, and long-term efforts, the
need for a centralized infrastructure model becomes apparent. Historically, in-situ environmental monitoring has
followed a fragmented approach, whereby hardware and data-handling systems are highly specialized and do not
offer flexibility for interdisciplinary work or additions. Modern technology and systems design can allow
implementation of data acquisition and transport solutions that potentially revolutionize how environmental field
research is performed. Three critical drivers of environmental monitoring station design are reliability,
communications capability, and modularity. These key aspects directly affect the quality, quantity, and continuity
of data that can be acquired in any given geographical location. The centerpiece, or “killer app,” is a high-speed
data communications network that allows for internet-enabled connectivity in and out of the site. Additionally,
power generation and storage systems should be designed as simple, redundant, and flexible. Building these
items as well as modularity into monitoring stations ensures that station uptime and long-term costs are
optimized. As an example we outline the design of the NevCAN (Nevada Climate-ecohydrologic Assessment
Network) stations and supportive infrastructure. NevCAN includes 11 remote stations which are solar-power
dependent, ranging from 800 m to 3300 m in elevation, supported by hundreds of kilometers of high-speed
wireless networking links.
Poster
CAN TREE-RING CHRONOLOGIES DETERMINE THE CLIMATIC VARIABLES IN A PICEA ENGELMANNII
DISTRIBUTION MODEL?
Truettner, Charles M., Cole, Kenneth L., Cobb, Neil S., and Giles, John R.
Northern Arizona University, Merriam-Powell Center for Environmental Research, Flagstaff, AZ
Species distribution models traditionally evaluate the variables most critical for a species by applying spatially
explicit datasets of environmental variables (e.g. topography, soil types, climate datasets) in relation to the
presence and/or absence of the species. These variables may or may not be similar to variables derived using
other methods, especially since the factors controlling a species’ limit are unlikely to be the same over its entire
range. The link between a species' physiological processes and limiting variables within a large-scale spatial
dataset is essential to progress the science of species distribution models. In this study, 20 published tree-ring
chronologies extracted from the International Tree Ring Data Bank in Southwestern, USA are correlated with a
PRISM climate dataset to understand which climatic variables are influencing the climate-growth relationship of
Picea engelmannii Parry ex Engelm. These climate variables are then used in a species distribution model to
assist in predicting the occurrence of P. engelmannii. Furthermore, the shift in the distribution of P. engelmannii
according to the parameters in the present model is projected into three future time-steps (2010 – 2039, 2040 –
2069, and 2070 – 2099 AD) using General Circulation Models downscaled to the PRISM ~4 km grid (Garfin et al.
2010). Tree-ring chronologies and forest stand dynamics are analyzed from three different elevation classes in
the Pinaleño Mountains and San Francisco Peaks to validate the possible upward migration of P. engelmannii in
its southernmost distribution. Preliminary results using both spatial datasets and tree-rings demonstrate that in
this region the distribution of P. engelmannii is strongly influenced by the severity of the early summer drought.
The species distribution model can assist land managers in decision-making processes pertaining to adaptation
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strategies of species response to 21 century climatic warming.
Talk
CLIMATIC STRESS INCREASES FOREST FIRE SEVERITY INDEPENDENT OF FIRE INTENSITY
van Mantgem, Phillilp J. (1), Nesmith, Jonathan C. (2), Keifer, MaryBeth (3), and Knapp, Eric (4)
(1) USGS, Redwood Field Station, Arcata, CA, (2) National Park Service, Three Rivers CA, (3) National Park
Service, Boise, ID (4) USFS, Pacific Southwest Research Station, Redding, CA
Pervasive warming can lead to chronic stress on forest trees, potentially causing greater sensitivity (increased
mortality) to fire-caused injuries. Longitudinal analyses from over 300 forest plots from across the western United
States show that higher pre-fire water deficits substantially increase post-fire mortality probabilities. This climatefire interaction was present after accounting for fire defenses and injuries, and was persistent across geographic
regions, major genera and tree size. Warming trends have been linked to increasing probabilities of severe fire
weather and fire spread; our results suggest that warming may also increase forest fire severity (the number of
trees killed) independent of fire intensity (the amount of heat released during a fire).
Talk
TEMPERATURE AS A POTENT DRIVER OF REGIONAL FOREST DROUGHT STRESS AND TREE
MORTALITY
Williams, A. Park (1), Allen, Craig D. (2), Macalady, Alison K. (3), Griffin, Daniel (3), Woodhouse, Connie A. (3),
Meko, David M. (3), Swetnam, Thomas W. (3), Rauscher, Sara A. (1), Seager, Richard (4), Grissino-Mayer, Henri
D. (5), Dean, Jeffrey (3), Cook, Edward R. (4), Gangodagamage, Chandana (1), Cai, Michael (1), and McDowell,
Nathan M. (1)
(1) Los Alamos National Laboratory, Los Alamos, NM, (2) US Geological Survey, Los Alamos, NM, (3) University
of Arizona, Tucson, AZ, (4) Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory of Columbia University, Palisades, NY, (5) The
University of Tennessee, Knoxville, TN
As climate changes, drought may reduce tree productivity and survival across many forest ecosystems; however,
the relative influence of specific climate parameters on forest decline is poorly understood. We derive a forest
drought-stress index (FDSI) for the southwestern United States (SWUS) using a comprehensive tree-ring dataset
representing CE 1000–2007. FDSI is approximately equally influenced by warm-season vapor-pressure deficit
(VPD; largely controlled by temperature) and cold-season precipitation, together explaining 82% of FDSI
variability. Correspondence between FDSI and measures of forest productivity, mortality, bark-beetle outbreak,
and wildfire validate FDSI as a holistic forest-vigor indicator. If VPD continues increasing as projected by climate
models, mean forest drought stress by the 2050s will exceed that of the most severe droughts in over 1000 years.
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Collectively, results foreshadow 21 century changes in SWUS forest structures and compositions, with transition
of SWUS forests, and perhaps water-limited forests globally, toward distributions unfamiliar to modern civilization.
Invited Talk
AN OVERVIEW OF ADAPTIVE CAPACITY ASSESSMENT OPTIONS AND AN APPROACH FOR ASSESSING
THE READINESS OF FOREST MANAGEMENT ORGANIZATIONS TO RESPOND TO CLIMATE CHANGE
Williamson, Tim (1) and Gray, Paul (2)
(1) Natural Resources Canada, Canadian Forest Service, Northern Forestry Centre, Edmonton, AB, (2)
Government of Ontario, Ontario Ministry of Natural Resources
The rate and magnitude of climate change over the next century will be unprecedented from the point of view of
human resource management experience. Climate change impacts could manifest in the form of simultaneously
occurring, interacting, and dynamic effects on forest ecosystems, forest related benefits, relative risks, and
economic returns. Managers and practitioners can expect novel conditions, surprises, increasing uncertainty, and
reduced predictability about the future ecological condition of forests and the availability of goods and services.
Such changes in decision and operating environments mean that forest managers will need to be more adaptable
than is currently the case. The challenge is to ascertain exactly what this means? What kinds of things contribute
to adaptability? How much more adaptability is needed and justified and in what areas? How do agents,
institutions, and organizations rationally enhance their capacity to adapt? Assessing the adaptive capacity of
forest management agents, organizations, and institutions is at an early stage. This presentation summarizes
some approaches for assessing adaptive capacity that have been used in forest management contexts. For
example, a study of the adaptive capacity of Canadian forest management based on assessment of determinants
such as human and social capitals, knowledge management, and institutions is discussed. An important aspect of
adaptive capacity assessment is that it is context specific. A preliminary framework for assessing the readiness
(or capacity) of forest management organizations to respond to climate change and other effects is presented.
Factors, features, and activities that contribute to organizational readiness include sustainable forest management
principles, trusting relationships, organizational culture that fosters and adaptive approach, informed leadership,
partnerships, strategic planning, legislation and policy, knowledge, information management, communications,
education, knowledge exchange, and ability to implement logical adaptation measures.
Invited Keynote
HEADWATER RIVERS AND CARBON STORAGE
Wohl, Ellen (1), Dwire, Kathleen A. (2), and Sutfin, Nicholas A.
(1) Dept. of Geosciences, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO, (2) USDA Forest Service, Rocky Mountain
Research Station, Fort Collins, CO
Mountainous headwater rivers are disproportionately important in global carbon fluxes because of their influence
on microbial activity and CO2 outgassing and storage of carbon in coarse dead wood. Published research
emphasizes rapid downstream export of terrestrial carbon via rivers, but little work has focused on mechanisms
that create carbon storage along mountainous headwater rivers, or on the volume of carbon storage. We
estimated organic carbon stored within floodplain sediments, coarse dead wood, and vegetation in diverse valley
types of headwater rivers in Rocky Mountain National Park, Colorado, USA. Low gradient, broad valley bottoms
with old-growth forest or active beaver colonies store the great majority of carbon. Although these laterally
unconfined valley segments constitute < 25% of total river length, they store ~75% of the carbon. Floodplain
sediment and coarse wood dominate carbon storage in all valley types. Our estimates of riverine carbon storage,
2
3
over time spans of 10 -10 years and volumes nearly a quarter of terrestrial upland storage, represent a
previously undocumented but important carbon sink. Patterns observed in this river network likely apply to those
in other temperate mountainous headwaters, with broad consequences for understanding global carbon
sequestration and managing biotic-river interactions.
Poster
STREAMFLOW AND MONSOON RECONSTUCTIONS FOR THE RIO GRANDE BASIN, USA
Woodhouse, Connie A. (1,2), Meko, David M. (2), Griffin, D. (1, 2), and Castro, Christopher L. (3)
(1) School of Geography and Development, University of Arizona, Tucson, AZ, (2) Laboratory of Tree-Ring
Research, University of Arizona, Tucson, AZ, (3) Department of Atmospheric Sciences, University of Arizona,
Tucson, AZ
In regions of the world with bi-modal precipitation regimes such as the southwestern US, water users and
resource management are vulnerable to multi-season droughts which can have significant impacts on agriculture
and ranching as well as on urban water demand. In these regions, knowledge of hydroclimate variability in both
seasons is critical for fully understanding drought and its impacts. Tree-ring data have been used extensively to
reconstruct past cool season droughts in the Southwest, but until recently, information about monsoon season
droughts has been lacking. A new network of tree-ring data now allows investigations of the North American
monsoon across the southwestern US, including the Rio Grande basin of New Mexico, the focus of this study. A
reconstruction of monsoon precipitation is compared with reconstructed Rio Grande headwaters flow, which is
largely snow-melt dominated, over the past four centuries. Together, analysis of these two reconstructions
documents the variability of the dominant surface water supply for the region with warm season precipitation,
which also tempers surface water and groundwater demand. We find that that low runoff followed by a dry
monsoon is not unusual, and over the full reconstruction period, wet or dry conditions are shared in both seasons
more often than not. The current Rio Grande basin drought, which began in 2000, does not yet appear to be
unusually severe in either the instrumental or paleoclimatic context, especially compared to a severe, sustained,
multi-season drought in the 1700s. However, the impacts of this ongoing drought have been significant. Demand
for water now exceeds supply and climate change projections indicate decreasing winter precipitation in the
future. The nature of and controls on monsoon season precipitation are far from well-understood; this
paleoclimatic record of monsoon variability provides baseline information on a key component of Southwestern
climate.
ABSTRACTS FOR POST-MTNCLIM 2012 MANAGERS’ WORKSHOP
Bridging Boundaries: Climate Change Adaptation
Invited Talk
LESSONS LEARNED FROM BRIDGING BOUNDARIES: 50 YEARS OF THE GREATER YELLOWSTONE
COORDINATING COMMITTEE
Kelly, Virginia
Greater Yellowstone Coordinating Committee, NPS/USFS/USFWS/BLM, Bozeman, MT
The Greater Yellowstone Coordinating Committee (GYCC) fosters collaboration across boundaries among the
federal agencies of the Greater Yellowstone Area (GYA). One of the oldest interagency land management
partnerships in the country, it formed in the 1960’s between the two National Parks and six National Forests, and
now includes the US Fish and Wildlife Service and the Bureau of Land Management. Together these four
agencies manage more than 15 million acres of federal land in the largest, essentially intact natural area in the
lower 48 states. Factors for success include clear manager intent, priority setting, assigning resources and
fostering a culture of coordination, while a primary challenge is staff capacity for interagency efforts. The GYCC
operates with a Manager Committee / staff Subcommittee structure; an interagency climate change adaptation
team formed in 2010. The agencies’ current climate change adaptation efforts include building user-friendly tools
for accessing downscaled climate data, and a GYA wide interagency watershed-based vulnerability assessment
(2013). As leaders in climate change mitigation, the agencies developed the nation’s first federal interagency
greenhouse gas inventory and climate action plan.
Invited Talk
SPRING AND SEEP ASSESSMENTS IN THE SKY ISLAND REGION: A PROCESS OF ENGAGING NGOS,
RESOURCE MANAGERS, AND ACADEMICS
Misztal, Louise,
Sky Island Alliance, Tucson, AZ
In 2011 Sky Island Alliance began a two-year project to develop critical baseline information on spring, and seep
resources in the Sky Island region. The need for this type of spring inventory and assessment was raised at two
regional climate change adaptation workshops convened and organized by Sky Island Alliance in collaboration
with a variety of partners including federal and state land and wildlife management agencies. It is known that
springs in arid ecosystems occupy a small fraction of the landscape and yet support disproportionately high levels
of productivity, endemism and biodiversity. Mangers with extensive on-the-ground knowledge identified a lack of
critical data on the ecological condition and management status of the majority of springs in the region as a
serious concern in implementing meaningful climate change-adaptive land management; either the data does not
exist or is jurisdiction specific. Developing a better and more in-depth knowledge base and understanding of
spring and seep resources in the region and developing restoration and protection measures to best enhance
those resources emerged as a recurring theme in workshop discussions. The project is demonstrating to
collection and application of assessment data in developing management responses for adaptation in a
collaborative and regional context. Major project components include:
 Work collaboratively with land and resource managers to identify priority watersheds for spring and seep
assessments.
 Conduct spring and seep inventories and assessments using trained volunteers and professional staff.
 Develop a regional database for housing and sharing historic data from cooperating agencies along with
new data generated through this project
 Utilize assessments of current spring and seep management in conjunction with land managers and
experts to develop climate change adaptation strategies and recommendations for priority areas
Invited Talk
MANAGING FOR CHANGE IN THE GUNNISON BASIN: BUILDING RESILIENCE
Neely, Betsy
The Nature Conservancy, Colorado Chapter, Boulder, Colorado
Widespread ecological changes in the southwestern US are associated with global climate change. Observed
effects in the region include large-scale forest die-back, larger and more severe wildfires, and changes in the flow
regimes of rivers and streams. Climate scientists predict landscapes will undergo major ecological
transformations in the coming decades. These changes have prompted action by the conservation community to
reduce adverse effects of climate change. To build capacity among natural resource managers and conservation
practitioners for understanding and responding to change, the Nature Conservancy, Climate Assessment for the
Southwest/University of Arizona, Wildlife Conservation Society, Western Water Assessment, University of
Colorado, University of Washington, US Forest Service and National Center for Atmospheric Research created
the Southwest Climate Change Initiative (SWCCI). The Gunnison Basin is one of four SWCCI pilot landscapelevel projects developing and testing ways to sustain natural resources and livelihoods in a changing climate
(others are in Utah, New Mexico and Arizona). The Gunnison Climate Working Group, a partnership of 16 public
and private entities in the Upper Gunnison Basin, is working to: 1) understand the effects of climate change on
species, ecosystems and people; 2) develop integrated social/ecological adaptation strategies; and 3) promote
coordinated implementation of strategies across jurisdictional boundaries. The Group is currently designing and
implementing an on-the-ground climate adaptation project to restore and enhance the resilience of wet
meadows/riparian areas -- important brood-rearing habitat – to help the Gunnison Sage-grouse and other wildlife
species adapt to a changing climate.
Invited Talk
COMBINING GEOSPATIAL VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT AND SCENARIO PLANNING FOR CLIMATE
ADAPTATION: A FIRE MANAGEMENT EXAMPLE
Nydick, Koren R. (1), Schwartz, M. (2), Moritz, Max (3), and Sydoriak, Charisse (1)
(1) USDOI National Park Service, Sequoia & Kings Canyon National Parks, Three Rivers, CA, (2) University of
California at Davis, Dept. of Environmental Science & Policy, Davis, CA,(3) University of California at Berkeley,
Dept. of Environmental Science, Policy & Management, Berkeley, CA
Scientists and land managers in the Southern Sierra Nevada are working together to re-evaluate fire
management in a changing climate. Fire is a potent resource management tool and potential stressor because of
its strong linkage to climate and direct and indirect effects on the environment and people. We set out to develop
knowledge, process, and tools to describe the future in a useful way for planning, to identify what resources are
vulnerable and where, and to help us prioritize management strategies across the landscape. The novel process
involves three tools: (1) a geospatial vulnerability assessment that uses downscaled GCM output and analyzes
vegetation stress related to climate and fire; (2) scenario-based planning that considers multiple futures,
incorporates both ecological and socio-political uncertainties, and lets us think “outside the box” where models
currently cannot go; and (3) an interactive planning exercise that integrates the two – “Making it Real” and giving
us practice in adaptation planning. The combined ecological/socio-political scenarios have names like “Ecosystem
Management”, “Water Wars Ignite”, and “Mega Fire Looms”. The integrative process has proven powerful to
combine disparate information and actively engage participants in new ways of thinking while making the results
relevant to on-the-ground management.
Invited Talk
BRINGING RESILIENCE FROM THEORY TO PRACTICE
Ojima, Dennis
Natural Resource Ecology Lab, Colorado State University, Ft Collins, CO
Climate change is affecting our mountain communities disproportionately relative to their adaptive capacity to
adjust to the effects of climate and other stressors on ecosystem services and associated natural resources. As
we endeavor to manage for these changes and attempt to enhance the resilience of the mountain systems, we
are faced with a multi-faceted social-ecological challenge. The dynamic nature of this challenge is defined by the
multiple dimensions of the jurisdictional and institutional boundaries which we deal with, the multi-scaled features
of the biophysical and biogeochemical dynamics we are confronted with, and the multiple demands on the natural
resources we are managing. Management and research activities which embrace these multiple dimensions
provide a basis of managing for resilience of these systems. Setting management goals and practices which
enhance the slow variables of social-ecological systems; such as landscape integrity, soil organic matter,
ecosystem structure, knowledge networks, institutional collaborations; will enhance the resilience of the system.
The presentation will provide a framework to explore how these concepts might be utilized to develop adaptive
management practices to enhance resilience of mountain social ecological systems.