MtnClim 2012
Sponsored by the
Consortium for Integrated Climate Research
in Western Mountains
(CIRMOUNT)
October 1 – 4, 2012
Estes Park, Colorado
www.fs.fed.us/psw/mtnclim
Conference Purpose
MTNCLIM aims to advance the sciences related to climate and its interaction with physical, ecological, and
social systems of western North American mountains. Within this arena, MTNCLIM goals are to:
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Provide a biennial forum for presenting and encouraging current, interdisciplinary research through
invited and contributed oral and poster sessions.
Promote active integration of science into resource-management application through focused
sessions, panels, and ongoing problem-oriented working groups.
Advance other goals of CIRMOUNT through ad hoc committees, networking opportunities, cohosting meetings, and targeted fund-raising efforts.
In 2012 a pre-meeting field trip to the Niwot Ridge Long Term Ecological Research site, a post-conference
workshop entitled Bridging Boundaries: Climate Change Adaptation, and an initiation meeting for the North
American Treeline Network are also scheduled.
Conference Sponsors
MTNCLIM is sponsored by the Consortium for Integrated Climate Research in Western Mountains
(CIRMOUNT), with funding and support from the following agencies and institutions:
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USDA Forest Service, Pacific Southwest, Pacific Northwest, and Rocky Mountain Research
Stations
University of Arizona, School of Natural Resources and the Environment
USGS Water Resources Division
Desert Research Institute, Western Regional Climate Center
Western Washington University, Department of Environmental Sciences
University of Idaho, Department of Geography
University of Colorado, Mountain Research Station and INSTAAR
Mountain Research Initiative, Berne, Switzerland
Embassy of France, Office of Science and Technology
Steering Committee
Connie Millar, USDA Forest Service, Pacific Southwest Research Station (chair)
Jill Baron, USGS Water Resources Division
Bill Bowman, University of Colorado, Mountain Research Station and INSTAAR
Andy Bunn, Western Washington University, Department of Environmental Sciences
Mike Dettinger, USGS Water Resources Division, and University of California - Scripps Institute of
Oceanography
Gregg Garfin, University of Arizona, School of Natural Resources and the Environment, and the Institute of
the Environment
Greg Greenwood, Mountain Research Initiative, Berne, Switzerland
Jeff Hicke, University of Idaho, Department of Geography
Linda Joyce, USDA Forest Service, Rocky Mountain Research Station
Dave Peterson, USDA Forest Service, Pacific Northwest Research Station
Kelly Redmond, Desert Research Institute, Western Regional Climate Center
Phil van Mantgem, USGS, Redwood Field Station
Logistics Coordinator: Diane Delany, USDA Forest Service, Pacific Southwest Research Station
CIRMOUNT website: www.fs.fed.us/psw/cirmount
CONTENTS
Conference Agenda …………………………………..……………….…….
1
Agenda for the Post-Conference Managers’ Workshop ………..............
6
Conference Abstracts ……………………………………..……...…………
7
Abstracts for the Post-Conference Managers’ Workshop ……...............
46
List of Participants ………………………………………………....………...
49
October 1 – 4, 2012
YMCA of the Rockies
Estes Park, Colorado
Cover photo (Bill Bowman): Sunrise on the Indian Peaks from Niwot Ridge, Colorado Front Range AGENDA
MTNCLIM 2012
YMCA of the Rockies, Estes Park, Colorado
October 1-4, 2012
www.fs.fed.us/psw/mtnclim
Speakers’ names are given for oral presentations; additional authors are included with abstracts
Sunday, September 30, 2012
Field Trip to Niwot Long Term Ecological Reserve. Organizer: Bill Bowman, Mountain
Research Station, INSTAAR, Dept of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, University of
Colorado, Boulder, CO
Monday, October 1, 2012
3:00pm
CHECK-IN opens for YMCA of the Rockies (Rooms)
4:00-6:00pm
REGISTRATION, Emerald Mountain Lodge, YMCA of the Rockies
5:00-7:00pm
BANQUET DINNER, Walnut Dining Room, YMCA of the Rockies
7:30-9:00pm
Emerald Mountain Lodge
Welcome, Connie Millar, USFS, Albany, CA
Invited Talk: Western Climate 2011-2012 in Perspective
Kelly Redmond, Desert Research Institute and Western Regional Climate Center,
Reno, NV
Tuesday, October 2, 2012
8:00-10:30am
Invited Session: Mountain Lakes, Emerald Mountain Lodge
Organizers: Jill Baron, USGS, Natural Resources Ecology Laboratory, Colorado State
University, Ft. Collins, CO; Connie Millar, USDA Forest Service, PSW Research Station,
Albany, CA; Kelly Redmond, Desert Research Institute and Western Regional Climate
Center, Reno, NV
Moderator, Jill Baron, USGS, Ft. Collins, CO,
8:00-8:30am
Reconstructing Alpine Snowpacks Using Diatom Inference Models and Long-Term
Records of Lake Hydrochemistry
Jim Sickman, Dept of Environmental Sciences, University of California, Riverside, CA
8:30-9:00am
Does Climate Trump Fish or Do Fish Trump Climate? Long-Term (>52 Year) Ecological
Dynamics of Subalpine Castle Lake
Sudeep Chandra, Dept of Natural Resources and Environmental Sciences, University of
Nevada, Reno, NV
1
9:00-9:30am
Proglacial Lake-Sediment Records: Searching For Climatic Significance in a SplitPersonality System
Doug Clark, Dept of Geology, Western Washington University, Bellingham, WA
9:30-10:00am
Late Quaternary Climate Variability in the Intermountain West of the United States:
Evidence from Sub-Fossil Midge Analysis
Dave Porinchu, Dept of Geography, University of Georgia, Athens, GA
10:00-10:30am Paleolimnological perspectives of recent environmental change in mountain lakes
Alex Wolfe, Dept of Earth and Environmental Sciences, University of Alberta,
Alberta, Canada
10:30-11:00am BREAK
11:00-12:00pm Panel & Discussion: Future of Mountain Climate Research
Emerald Mountain Lodge
Moderator, Andy Bunn, Western Washington University, Bellingham, WA,
Ben Bobowski, Rocky Mtn National Park, Estes Park, CO
Iris Stewart-Frey, Dept of Environmental Studies and Sciences, Santa Clara University,
Santa Clara, CA
Greg Pederson, USGS, Northern Rocky Mountain Science Center, Bozeman, MT
Lara Kueppers, School of Natural Sciences, University of California, Merced, CA
12:00-1:30pm
LUNCH, Aspen Dining Room, YMCA of the Rockies
1:30-3:30pm
Invited Machida Session: Humans and Mountains of the West,
Emerald Mountain Lodge
Organizers: Dave Peterson, USDA Forest Service, PNW Research Station, Seattle, WA;
Linda Joyce, USDA Forest Service, RM Research Station, Ft Collins, CO
Moderator, Dave Peterson, USDA Forest Service, PNW Research Station, Seattle, WA
1:30-2:00pm
Concepts and Approaches for Assessing the Capacity of Organizations and Human
Management Systems to Adapt to Climate Change
Tim Williamson, Northern Forestry Centre, Canadian Forest Service, Edmonton,
Alberta, Canada
2:00-2:30pm
Actionable Science and Decision Support for Managing Risks from Changing
Mountain Climates
Holly Hartmann, University of Arizona, Tucson, AZ
2:30-3:00pm
Community Adaptation to Changing Water Supplies and Increased Variability
Hans Schreier, Faculty of Land and Food Systems, University of British Columbia,
Vancouver, BC, Canada
3:00-3:30pm
Adaptation of Mountain Regions to Drought Recurrence in a Context of Global Change
Sandra Lavorel, Laboratory of Alpine Ecology, UMR, CNRS, Grenoble, France
3:30-4:00pm
BREAK
4:00-5:15pm
Panel & Discussion: Perspectives on Emerging Mountain-Climate Institutions
Emerald Mountain Lodge
Moderator, Connie Millar, USDA Forest Service, Albany, CA
National Climate Assessment: Gregg Garfin, Institute of the Environment and School of
Natural Resources and the Environment, University of Arizona, Tucson, AZ
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Climate Science Centers: Dennis Ojima, Natural Resource Ecology Lab, Colorado State
University, Ft Collins, CO
UN Mountain Partnership (Rio + 20): Karinjo DeVore and Rebecca Wallace, Aspen
International Mountain Foundation, Aspen, CO
IPCC perspective: Steve Running, College of Forestry and Conservation University of
Montana, Missoula, MT
5:30-7:00pm
DINNER, Aspen Dining Room
7:30-9:30pm
Poster Session, Emerald Mountain Lodge
Wednesday, October 3, 2012
8:00-9:00am
Keynote Talk
Moderator, Greg Greenwood, Mountain Research Initiative, Bern, Switzerland,
Ecosystem Goods and Services, Climate Change, and Adaptive Forest Management in
Mountain Regions
Harald Bugmann, Forest Ecology, Institute for Terrestrial Ecosystems, ETH, Zurich,
Switzerland
9:00-10:00am
Invited Mini-Session
Moderator, Jeff Hicke, University of Idaho, Moscow, ID,
9:00-9:30am
Role of Human Intervention in Climate Adaptation
Steve Running, College of Forestry and Conservation, University of Montana,
Missoula, MT
9:30-10:00am
Superensemble Regional Climate Modeling for the Western US: A New Way of Seeing
Mountains
Phil Mote, Oregon Climate Change Research Institute and Oregon Climate Services,
Oregon State University, Corvallis, OR
10:00-10:30am BREAK
10:30-11:50am Contributed Oral Session
Moderator, Gregg Garfin, School of Natural Resources and the Environment, University
of Arizona, Tucson, AZ
10:30-10:50am Alpine Treeline Warming Experiment: Effects of Microclimate on Subalpine Seedling
Establishment within and Beyond Two Species’ Current Elevation Ranges
Lara Kueppers, University of California, Merced, CA
10:50-11:10am The GLORIA Project and Functional Traits of Mountain Plants as Predictors of their
Responses to Climate Change
Martha Apple, Biological Sciences, Montana Tech, Butte, MT
11:10-11:30am Variability in Microclimates of Mountain Ranges of Western North America, and its Effect
on Distribution and Trend of Alpine Mammals
Erik Beever, USGS, Northern Rocky Mountain Science Center, Bozeman, MT
11:30-11:50am Responding to Climate Change Impacts in The Sky Island Region: From Planning to
Action
Louise Misztal, Sky Island Alliance, Tucson, AZ
11:50am-2:00pm LUNCH, Aspen Dining Room
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2:00-5:30pm
Contributed Oral Session, Emerald Mountain Lodge
Moderator: Linda Joyce, USDA Forest Service, RMRS, Ft. Collins, CO
2:00-2:20pm
Climatic Stress Increases Forest Fire Severity Independent of Fire Intensity
Phil van Mantgem, USGS, Redwood Field Station, Arcata, CA
2:20-2:40pm
Introducing NEVCAN: The Nevada Climate-Ecohydrological Assessment Network of
Real-Time Very High Resolution Environmental Data in the Great Basin
Scott Mensing, University of Nevada, Reno, NV
2:40-3:00pm
Direct and Indirect Effects of Climate Change on Bundles of Grassland Ecosystem
Services
Pénélope Lamarque, Laboratory of Alpine Ecology, UMR, CNRS, Grenoble, France
3:00-3:20pm
Integrating Climate Science into Management-Oriented Adaptation Scenarios: Towards a
Hybrid Approach
John Gross, National Park Service, Climate Change Response Program, Ft. Collins, CO
3:20-3:50pm
BREAK
Moderator: Lara Kueppers, School of Natural Sciences, Univ of California, Merced, CA
3:50-4:10pm
The Spatial Variation of Glacier Retreat Across the Rocky Mountain West, USA
Andrew Fountain, Departments of Geology and Geography, Portland State University,
Portland, OR
4:10-4:30pm
Evaluation of SNODAS Snow Depth and Snow Water Equivalent Estimates For The
Colorado Rocky Mountains, USA
Dave Clow, Colorado Water Science Center, USGS, Denver, CO
4:30-4:50pm
Declining Water Quality in Sierra Nevada Mountain Streams under Projected Climatic
Changes
Iris Stewart, Santa Clara University, Department of Environmental Studies and
Sciences, Santa Clara, CA
4:50-5:10pm
Reconciling Disparate Trends in High-Elevation Hydrology and Low-Elevation
Precipitation Measurements: Is Precipitation Declining in Pacific Northwest Mountains?
Charlie Luce, USDA Forest Service, Rocky Mtn Research Station, Boise, ID
5:10-5:30pm
Shifts in Distributions of Western US Streamflow and Climate Indices between 1912 and
2010
Margaret Matter, Utah Water Research Laboratory, Utah State University; Logan, UT
6:00-7:20pm
BANQUET DINNER, Walnut Dining Room
7:30-8:30pm
Keynote Talk
Moderator, Mike Dettinger, USGS/Scripps Institution, UCSD, La Jolla, CA
Headwater Rivers and Carbon Storage
Ellen Wohl, Colorado State University, Ft Collins, CO
Thursday, October 4, 2012
8:00-11:00am
Invited Session: Early Career Scientists, Emerald Mountain Lodge
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Organizers: Andy Bunn, Dept of Environmental Sciences, Western Washington
University, Bellingham, WA; Phil van Mantgem, Western Ecological Research Center,
USGS, Arcata, CA
Moderator, Phil van Mantgem, USGS, Arcata, CA,
8:00-8:30am
Thermal Heterogeneity in Streams: Animals Exploit It, Models Ignore It.
Jonny Armstrong, University of Washington, Seattle, WA,
8:30-9:00am
Pattern and Processes of Tree Mortality at Local and Regional Scales
Adrian Das, USGS, Western Ecological Research Center, Three Rivers, CA
9:00-9:30am
A Tree-Ring Record of Monsoon Climate in the U.S. Southwest
Daniel Griffin, University of Arizona, Laboratory of Tree Ring Research, Tucson, AZ
9:30-9:50am
BREAK
9:50-10:20am
Disturbance Regimes and Disturbance Windows: Contemporary Post-Fire Phenology in
the Basin and Range, USA
Joel Sankey, USGS, Western Geographic Science Center and USA-National Phenology
Network Tucson, AZ
10:20-10:50am Microbially Mediated Nitrogen Cycling in Alpine Environments: Drivers and Constraints Ed Hall, USGS, Fort Collins Science Center, Fort Collins, CO
10:50-Noon
Closing Keynote Talk
Moderator, Kelly Redmond, Desert Research Institute, Reno, CA,
Extreme Events in Mountain Climates
Mike Dettinger, USGS, Scripps Institution of Oceanography, University of California
San Diego, La Jolla, CA
MtnClim Adjourns at Noon
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Thursday, October 4, 2012, Concurrent Post-MtnClim Events
1:30-5:00pm
Post-MtnClim Community Forum: Bridging Boundaries; Climate Change
Adaptation Planning. YMCA of the Rockies, Estes Park, CO, Emerald Mountain Lodge,
Main Meeting Room. Organizers: Linda Joyce, USFS, RM Research Station, Ft. Collins,
CO; Jill Baron, USGS, Natural Resources Ecology Lab, Colorado State University, Ft.
Collins, CO; Gregg Garfin, School of Natural Resources and the Environment, University
of Arizona, Tucson, AZ; Sarah Hines, USFS RM Research Station, Ft. Collins, CO.
***See Agenda Next Page***
1:30-5:00pm
North American Treeline Network. Planning meeting. YMCA of the Rockies, Estes
Park, CO, Emerald Mountain Lodge, Break-Out Room. Organizers: Dave Cairns, Lara
Kueppers, Connie Millar.
Friday, October 5, 2012
8:00-5:00pm
North American Treeline Network, Meeting continues, same location
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Bridging Boundaries: Climate Change Adaptation
Post-Conference Workshop for Resource Managers
Thursday, October 4, 2012, 1:00 – 5 pm
YMCA of the Rockies, Estes Park, CO, Emerald Mountain Lodge
Background – Boundaries have many different definitions – disciplinary, institutional, ‘line in the sand’, or
mental walls. Boundaries can be barriers or opportunities. This workshop focuses on opportunities to
bridge boundaries and to enhance climate change adaptation in natural resource management. Real
world examples will be shared where groups have worked together to bring understanding and action to
the ground to adapt resource management to climate change.
Objectives
1. Recognize boundaries and opportunities to bridge barriers that can impact adaptation efforts
2. Create opportunities for internalizing adaptation into natural resource management
3. Identify potential institutional arrangements that can accelerate adaptation.
Agenda
1:00 pm
Welcome, Linda Joyce, Rocky Mountain Research Station
1:10 pm
Homework exercise – The most challenging ‘boundary’ in resource management, Linda
Joyce, Rocky Mountain Research Station
1:30 pm
Fire management under a changing climate across the Southern Sierra Nevada Ecoregion
landscape, Koren Nydick, Science Coordinator/Ecologist, Sequoia & Kings Canyon National
Parks
1:55 pm
Lessons learned from bridging boundaries: 50 years of the Greater Yellowstone Coordinating
Committee, Virginia Kelly, Executive Coordinator, Greater Yellowstone Coordinating
Committee, USFS
2:20 pm
Managing for climate change in the Gunnison Basin: Building resilience, Betsy Neely, Senior
Conservation Planner, The Nature Conservancy
2:45 pm
Break
3:00 pm
Bringing resilience from theory to practice, Dennis Ojima, Senior Research Scientist, Natural
Rseource Ecology Laboratory, Professor, Colorado State University
3:25 pm
Seeps and springs in the Southwest: process of engaging NGOs, resource managers, and
academics. Louise Misztal, Conservation Policy Program Coordinator, Sky Island Alliance
4:00 pm
Panel: Adaptation Lessons learned from the Bark Beetle Outbreak in Colorado
5:00 pm
Close
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Abstracts MtnClim 2012
Alphabetic by Senior Author
Talk
THE GLORIA PROJECT AND FUNCTIONAL TRAITS OF MOUNTAIN PLANTS AS PREDICTORS
OF THEIR RESPONSES TO CLIMATE CHANGE
Apple, Martha E. (1), Bengtson, Lindsey (2), Millar, Constance (3), Westfall, Robert (3), and Dick, Jan
(4)
(1) Biological Sciences, Montana Tech, Butte, MT, (2) USGS Northern Rocky Mountain Science
Center, West Glacier, MT, (3) USDA Forest Service, PSW Research Station, Albany, CA, (4) Centre
for Ecology and Hydrology, Bush Estate, Penicuik, Midlothian, Scotland
Functional traits can be defined as physiological and structural characteristics of plants that influence
their interactions with the environment, and thus their responses to climate change. Important
functional traits of mountain plants include but are not limited to: life form and longevity (tree, shrub,
cushion, herb, geophyte, annual, perennial, biennial), distribution and habitat specialization, leaf
characteristics (area, thickness, longevity), photosynthetic pathway, root architecture, mycorrhizal
status, and the capacity to form symbioses with nitrogen-fixers. Clonal reproduction, flower type,
phenology, mode of pollination, mating systems, and seed morphology, seed/ramet distribution, and
germination are also important functional traits. In the event of a drought, cushion plants with small,
xeromorphic leaves could be more likely to survive than a neighboring herbaceous plant with thin,
high-surface-area leaves that may lose water rapidly. As part of the GLORIA (Global Research
Initiative in Alpine Environments) project, which is an extensive global network of long-term
monitoring sites on mountain summits with the goal of determining responses of mountain plants to
climate change, the GLORIA Plant Functional Traits Working Group has constructed a list of plant
functional traits that will likely be useful tools in predicting responses to climate change. The list
includes the traits described above, many of which are relatively easy to characterize in the field or to
derive from the existing literature, and which are thus in keeping with the GLORIA project's
philosophy of scientifically sound design, yet inexpensive and practical implementation. Functional
trait research may alleviate the difficulty of comparing trends across regions that do not share the
same taxonomic groups, and functional traits that are influenced by abiotic factors such as
temperature and precipitation may be valuable predictors of plant responses to climate change.
Invited Talk
THERMAL HETEROGENEITY IN STREAMS: ANIMALS EXPLOIT IT, MODELS IGNORE IT
Armstrong, Jonathan B., Schindler, Daniel E., and Lisi, Peter J.
Alaska Salmon Program, School of Aquatic and Fishery Sciences, University of Washington, Seattle,
WA
The Bristol Bay region of Alaska contains diverse landscapes that support some of the world’s most
abundant wild salmon populations. Every year tens of millions of sockeye salmon return to the
region’s watersheds, triggering a massive resource pulse for consumers ranging from juvenile salmon
to grizzly bears, which feed on the eggs and carcasses of spawning salmon. Here I explore how
spatial variation in water temperature mediates the ability of consumers to exploit salmon subsidies. I
present three case studies which encompass a range of spatial and temporal scales, and show how
thermal heterogeneity has both direct and indirect positive effects on the foraging opportunities for
consumers, including coho salmon, rainbow trout, gulls, and brown bear. The results presented show
that heterogeneous landscapes differentially filter regional climate effects, and present animals with a
range of thermal conditions. The complex ways in which animals actively exploit habitat heterogeneity
makes predicting biological responses to climate change extremely difficult, yet illustrates how
maintaining a diverse portfolio of habitats represents a tangible way to reduce the risks associated
with a changing climate.
7
Poster
CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS ON MARTEN AND FISHER IN THE CALIFORNIA SIERRAS
Bachelet, Dominique, Spencer, Wayne, Rustigian-Romsos, Heather, and Ferschweiler, Ken
Conservation Biology Institute, Corvallis, OR
Martens and fishers are closely related forest carnivores of conservation concern in California, where
both reach their southernmost distributions. Smaller martens occupy high subalpine forests with deep
and persistent snows, while larger fishers occupy mid-elevation forests with less snow and warmer
temperatures. Because they require similar forest structural conditions (dense forests with large trees
and abundant dead wood) but different climate regimes (cooler, moister, and snowier conditions for
martens; warmer, drier and less snowy conditions for fishers) they offer a unique opportunity to
investigate how changing climate may affect the species directly as well as through changes in
vegetation. We simulated how current distribution of martens and fishers are influenced by vegetation
characteristics (e.g., forest composition and structure), climate (e.g., temperature, precipitation, snow
depth and duration), physical variables (e.g., elevation, % slope) and presence or absence of the
other species. We then projected the potential future distribution of both species under climate
change using alternative emissions scenarios and general circulation model projections at 3 different
spatial resolutions (10km, 4km and 1km). Future climate data were used to drive a dynamic
vegetation model and a variety of species distribution models. The pessimistic results have been
made available through databasin.org. However, models have limitations and the presence of local
refugia and microclimates due to the complex topography of the mountains are not likely captured by
coarse scale climate or vegetation models and may in reality provide the animals with effective
avoidance options. Implications from this study will be used to support conservation and forest
management plans to address long-term sustainability of marten and fisher populations in the face of
climate change and increasingly severe fire regimes.
Talk
VARIABILITY IN MICROCLIMATES OF MOUNTAIN RANGES OF WESTERN NORTH AMERICA,
AND ITS EFFECT ON DISTRIBUTION AND TREND OF ALPINE MAMMALS
Beever, Erik A. (1), Dobrowski, Solomon Z. (2), Wilkening, Jennifer L. (3), Hall, Embere (4), Wolff,
Sue (5)
(1) U.S. Geological Survey, Northern Rocky Mountain Science Center, Bozeman, MT, (2) Department
of Forest Management, College of Forestry and Conservation, University of Montana, Missoula, MT,
(3) Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, University of Colorado, Boulder, CO, (4)
Program in Ecology, Wyoming Coop Fish and Wildlife Research Unit, Department of Zoology and
Physiology, University of Wyoming, Laramie, WY, (5) U.S. Nat. Pk. Service, Grand Teton National
Park, Moose, WY
Despite their great topographic (and thus microclimatic) complexity, mountain ecosystems of western
North America are typically under-instrumented, and scientists are only beginning to understand
some of the phenomena and magnitudes of variability in mountain climates at micro- to mesoresolutions. We present results from networks of temperature sensors in the northern Rocky
Mountains and hydrographic Great Basin that been collecting data for 2-7 years. Although sensors
have been placed primarily in talus interstices, in the Great Basin paired sensors above the talus and
at typical weather-station screen heights (1.5-2 m), to calibrate the talus-interstice sensors to typical
descriptions of climate. We have used these networks of sensors, plus modeled variables of climatic
water balance and other topographic and anthropogenic predictors, to try to understand mechanisms
underlying landscape-scale patterns of distribution and trend of American pikas (Ochotona princeps).
Temperatures in talus interstices differ from paired above-talus temperatures by few to >10 C, and
diel amplitudes of temperature swings are dampened in talus interstices. Lapse rates differ markedly
within and across the regions, apparently as the result of several interacting forcing factors. The pace
of site-wide extirpations of pikas from locations of historical records has increased five-fold, and the
rate of upslope retraction has increased eleven-fold, from the 20th Century to the 21st Century’s first
decade, in the Basin. Factors relating to both temperature and precipitation appear most strongly
8
related to patterns of persistence, occupancy, and abundance of pikas, in our three study domains.
These factors include average summer temperature, frequency of very cold days, maximum snowwater equivalent, and growing-season precipitation. Different ecological contexts seem to permit
different degrees of behavioral plasticity to accommodate stresses of contemporary climate.
PPT online
HANS EDUARD SUESS (1909-1993), RADIOCARBON, SUN AND CLIMATE
Berger, Wolf H.
Scripps Institution of Oceanography, University of California, San Diego, La Jolla, CA
Hans Suess was an important pioneer in the development of radiocarbon measurements and their
application to questions concerning the variability of solar output and possible effects on climate. He
initiated the use of measuring radiocarbon within tree rings for multi-millennial reconstruction of
cosmic ray flux. He identified, within a series mainly derived from bristlecone samples obtained from
C.W. Ferguson, a strong cycle with a period near 200 years. The cycle is now generally referred to as
the “de Vries” cycle, or also the “Suess” cycle. Analyzing a long record published by Suess in 1978, I
could not confirm the presence of this cycle in the series offered by Suess. The analysis of a modern
radiocarbon series based on tree-rings (“INTCAL09,” published by Reimer et al., 2009) was more
successful in confirming Suess’s discovery. The long-term periodicity of solar activity changes
through time, but there are preferred periods. I found gaps among the preferred periods, located near
200 y in the case of the Suess series, and near 165 y in the case of the Reimer series. However, the
200-y solar cycle apparently is real, as suggested by the analysis of published 10Be data and of
aurora sightings that span more than a millennium. A vital question that arises in the context is to
what degree the radio-isotopes act as proxies of solar activity, and to what degree they reflect
elements of climate change.
Poster
WESTERN SPRUCE BUDWORM OUTBREAKS: A DENDROCHRONOLOGICAL
RECONSTRUCTION AND TREND ANALYSIS IN THE NORTHERN ROCKY MOUNTAINS,
MONTANA, U.S.A.
Bottero, Alessandra (1), Naficy, Cameron E. (2), and Veblen, Thomas T. (2)
(1) Department of AGROSELVITER, University of Torino, Grugliasco, Italy (2) Department of
Geography, University of Colorado, Boulder, CO
Budworms (Choristoneura spp.) are among the most destructive insect pests of North American
forests. In this study we used tree-ring records to reconstruct and evaluate outbreak frequency,
timing, and spatial patterns of western spruce budworm (Choristoneura occidentalis Freeman) in
mixed Douglas-fir forests in the Northern Rocky Mountains. Budworm-induced reductions in tree-ring
growth of approximately 400 trees in 10 host stands located in two main lateral creeks of Paradise
valley (MT) were detected during the past 250 years. The comparison of cross-dated samples with
non-host tree-ring series was performed using the software OUTBREAK. The reconstruction of the
insect outbreak history based only on a visual detection of narrow rings without comparison with nonhost tree-ring control series was not effective. In fact, sharply reduced growth during outbreaks was
not always easily detectable, and consequently comparison with growth of non-host tree species was
essential. Stand structure and age characteristics of Douglas-fir were analyzed to evaluate the
possible role of forest structure in determining outbreak severity and recurrence, and to assess the
effects of budworm defoliation on different tree size classes. Outbreak patterns were also examined
for changes in the 20th century relative to prior centuries. Finally, we evaluated possible relationships
between outbreaks and climatic patterns, which suggested that outbreaks usually corresponded to
increased moisture, while less budworm activity occurring during dry periods. Preliminary results
showed also that dense stands were more susceptible to budworm defoliations.
9
Poster
LOOKING BEYOND CLIMATE: DISTURBANCE EFFECTS AND SUBSTRATE LIMITATIONS ON
TREE DISTRIBUTIONS IN ARCTIC AND TEMPERATE ALPINE ECOSYSTEMS
Brown, Carissa D. (1), Johnstone, Jill F. (2), and Vellend, Mark (1)
(1) Département de Biologie, Université de Sherbrooke, Sherbrooke, QC, (2) Department of Biology,
University of Saskatchewan, Saskatoon, SK
Range edges occupy areas on the extremes of species’ tolerance limits, and are likely to be sensitive
to direct climate effects. Species’ distributions are expected to shift northward and upward with
increased temperatures and environmental constraints on species’ establishment and survival are
expected to lessen. However, these predictions appear not to hold for all systems. Here, we contrast
two alpine ecosystems where climate does not appear to be the direct driver of tree species’
distributional limits. Using field experiments in alpine ecosystems within the latitudinal treeline and
within temperate-boreal transition alpine forest stands, we have begun to disentangle the complex
interactions of climatic and non-climatic drivers of species distributions at their range edges. Both
black spruce (Picea mariana) and sugar maple (Acer saccharum) distributions appear to be more
strongly driven by factors other than the direct effects of climate. Northern black spruce at the edge of
their range require several decades to become reproductively mature; therefore a climate-induced
reduction in the fire return interval may interrupt their typical cycle of post-fire self-replacement.
Results from our black spruce study show that recruitment was drastically reduced following two
closely timed fires. Increases in fire activity (an indirect effect of climate warming) may thus lead to a
degradation of treeline forests in some areas, rather than the increased tree density and forest extent
predicted with climate warming. In contrast to black spruce’s disturbance-controlled distribution, sugar
maple distributions in temperate alpine forests appear to be limited by multiple, interacting biotic and
abiotic factors. Experimental reciprocal transplant experiments of both seed and substrate have
allowed us to begin to understand the drivers of the transition from temperate to boreal forests in
these ecosystems, and to understand the role that climate may or may not play in a warmer future.
Invited Keynote
ECOSYSTEM GOODS AND SERVICES, CLIMATE CHANGE, AND ADAPTIVE FOREST
MANAGEMENT IN MOUNTAIN REGIONS
Bugmann, Harald, Temperli, Christian, and Elkin, Che
Forest Ecology, Institute for Terrestrial Ecosystems, Department of Environmental Systems Science,
ETH Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland
Mountain regions provide a vast array of ecosystem goods and services (EGS). In densely populated
areas such as the European Alps, mountain ecosystems have been managed since centuries to
provide the desired set of EGS in a continuous fashion. While some EGS can be delivered
synergistically (e.g., protection from avalanches and conservation of capercaillie), in other cases
there are antagonisms (e.g., on-site C storage and timber production). Current management is set up
to provide EGS in a spatially explicit manner, resulting from past environmental and societal legacies.
Anthropogenic climate change is likely to affect the provisioning of EGS in both space and time, such
that current management approaches may need to be re-thought. We focus on mountain forest EGS
and (1) evaluate how climate change will affect mountain forest properties at scales from forest
patches to entire valleys; (2) assess how the spatial patterning of EGS provisioning will change,
leading to changes in synergies and trade-offs that may need to be taken into account in future
management; and (3) identify the potential of adaptive management strategies to alleviate negative
effects of climate change on forest properties and EGS provisioning. Forest properties and EGS
provisioning are simulated for three case study landscapes in and nearby the Swiss Alps using the
landscape model LandClim, which describes forest dynamics (establishment, growth and mortality of
trees) at the grid-scale (25x25 m) and incorporates spatially explicit processes such as dispersal,
management, wildfires, and windthrow. Simulation results suggest drastic changes in forest
properties along altitudinal transects at decadal to centennial time scales. While at lower elevations
the current set of species may be reaching their physiological limits, at upper elevations denser
forests and an increase in treeline elevation are to be expected. In terms of EGS provision, much
10
more mellow changes are simulated, but the spatial patterning of EGS provision, synergies and tradeoffs is likely to change strongly, thus calling for adaptive management strategies.
The simulation results are discussed in the context of (1) the problem of using EGS metrics to simplify
complex ecosystem properties; (2) the potential for adaptive management approaches to alleviate
global change effects on mountain forest EGS; (3) the potential and limitations of quantitative
computer models of landscape dynamics as decision-support tools for ecosystem management; and
(4) the various sources of uncertainty inherent in the underlying processes.
Poster
MODELING PIKA PRESENCE IN THE WESTERN US: RELATIONSHIPS WITH CLIMATE
VARIABLES, MODEL SENSITIVITIES, AND CLIMATE CHANGE IMPLICATIONS
Buotte, Polly C. (1, 2) and Hicke, Jeffrey A. (1)
(1) University of Idaho, Department of Geography, Moscow, ID; (2) Big Sky, MT
Temperatures have increased during the past century and projections predict additional warming in
the coming decades, with substantial implications for human and natural ecosystems. American
pikas (Ochotona princeps) may act as early indicators of climate change because of their sensitivity
to temperature and because their mountain habitat is expected to experience large changes in
climate. Here we developed and evaluated models of pika presence in the western US using climate
data and MaxEnt, and assessed model sensitivities in two ways: i) we compared regional (Westwide)
models with subregional models; and ii) we compared models using 5-year average climate data with
those using 30-year averages. Models performed significantly better than random, although
commission rates were high. Summer maximum temperature was the most important variable in
Westwide models and in two of the five subregional models. Winter minimum temperature was also
important in Westwide models, and was most important in several subregions. Response curves of
pika presence to climate variables varied across subregions and climate input data. We modeled
future probability of pika presence at observed pika presence locations given climate change
projections to assess sensitivities. Models projected decreases in probability of pika presence for
future climate projections, although the magnitude of decrease was highly variable based on decade,
emissions scenario, subregion, and model type. We suggest that models using finer spatial (in our
case, subregional) and temporal (5-year average climate) resolution are preferred in many cases
when developing species distribution models because they may capture important variability that
does not exist in models developed from coarser resolution data. Future research that includes the
effect of additional variables whose spatial distribution is currently not well known, such as talus or
subtalus ice, will increase the accuracy of pika presence predictions.
Invited Talk
DOES CLIMATE TRUMP FISH OR DO FISH TRUMP CLIMATE? LONGER-TERM ECOLOGICAL
CHARACTERISTICS AND FORCING FACTORS TO A SUBALPINE, MESOTROPHIC LAKE
Chandra, Sudeep (1), Trowbridge, Wendy (1), Henery, Rene (1), and Goldman, Charles (2),
(1) Aquatic Ecosystems Analysis Laboratory, University of Nevada, Reno, NV, (2) University of
California, Davis, CA
Climate is a major driver of ecological process within aquatic ecosystems, either by directly
influencing physical process or alterations through the water- or airsheds. Previous research has
suggested that our changing climate is altering the duration of ice out, mixing processes, and
phenological characteristics of the plankton in lake ecosystems. However, fish manipulations
resulting may also alter a lake ecosystem (e.g. trophic cascade). In this study, we examine the longterm trends in the ecological characteristics of a subalpine lake located along the Pacific Rim in
Northern California. The 52 year record from Castle Station, the longest known for a mountain
ecosystem in North and South America, and nearby sampling locations indicates that while air
temperatures in the late summer and spring periods are increasing, snow water content in Spring, ice
out date, and surface water temperatures are not changing. Primary production and zooplankton
composition (decrease in Diaptomus and increase in cyclopoid copepods) however shift during the
11
longer term record. Utilizing the variability in the climate and ecological data due to climate and lake
characteristics over the period of monitoring, we use a structural equation modeling approach to
determine that prior to major perturbations from fish stocking, both fish manipulations and climate
consistently influence zooplankton structure and total biomass. After a 7 year period of fish
manipulations and drought, the lake has undergone a regime shift in zooplankton community
structure that is likely attributed to a combination of climate stress and fish manipulation. Post
drought and manipulation leads to a 20 year alteration to production and structure that is only partially
returning to prior condition in recent years. We believe it is increasingly important to consider fish
manipulations and climate as interacting factors when trying to determine the future condition of lake
environmental related to climate change. The direction of changes may not be clear due to the
complexity of interannual dynamics.
Poster
SPATIO-TEMPORAL PATTERNS OF MOUNTAIN PINE BEETLE ACTIVITY IN THE SOUTHERN
ROCKY MOUNTAINS, POST-EPIDEMIC REGENERATION, AND POTENTIAL CONSEQUENCES
Chapman, Teresa B., and Veblen, T.T.
Department of Geography, University of Colorado, Boulder, CO
We present published results of spatio-temporal patterns of mountain pine beetle (MPB;
Dendroctonus ponderosae) activity in lodgepole pine (Pinus contorta) and ponderosa pine (Pinus
ponderosa) from 1996 to 2010 in Colorado and southern Wyoming with regional climate fluctuations.
We detail the annual progression of the epidemic in lodgepole pine with respect to climatic,
topographic, previous MPB activity, and forest stand attributes. Both warm temperatures and episodic
years of low annual precipitation combined with a largely homogenous landscape to influence the
development of the MPB epidemic in lodgepole pine. Multiple locations of incipient MPB activity
(epicenters) in lodgepole pine were identified. These epicenters overlapped an earlier 1980s MPB
outbreak and were characterized by lower annual precipitation compared to areas that were infested
later. Across a large expanse of the southern Rocky Mountains, the MPB epidemic caused severe
mortality, affecting over 750,000 hectares of pine forest. Regeneration patterns following the MPB
outbreak will have long lasting legacies on forest composition and, potentially, the forest’s response
to future disturbances, such as fire. Therefore, we also present preliminary results of tree
regeneration patterns following the MBP epidemic. Both new seedling establishment and advanced
regeneration showed a low density of lodgepole pine and dominance by subalpine fir and aspen in
subalpine forests affected by MPB attributed tree mortality. Tree inventories showed a decrease in
the density of living serotinous trees across the large regions of the study area. These preliminary
results suggest that lodgepole pine regeneration following future fires may be limited.
Poster
ASSESSMENT OF INSTITUTIONAL CAPACITY TO MANAGE ELK ACROSS A CHANGING
LANDSCAPE
Childress, Amber N., Ojima, Dennis S., Baron, Jill S., and Galvin, Kathy
Natural Resource Ecology Laboratory, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO
Elk significantly influence the ecosystem and culture of the Rocky Mountain National Park region.
Although elk move throughout the whole region, elk management is primarily performed by agencies
acting separately, with institutional foci ranging from sustainability of elk viewing and tourism, to
changes in plant communities, or managing human-elk conflicts. In collaboration with Rocky
Mountain National Park and Colorado Parks and Wildlife, we assess the capacity of individual
institutions (e.g. Rocky Mountain National park, Colorado Parks and Wildlife, U.S. Forest Service,
City of Estes Park) for managing these large ungulates across a changing landscape. We present
findings from a literature review of current management plans and interviews of scientists and
resource managers to understand the state of scientific knowledge and how elk management fits into
goals of each institution. Results provide insight to the range of strategies, scientific knowledge, and
communication gaps across and within institutions by determining if there is: a common
12
understanding of elk management strategies, actions and goals, and how they fit across agencies; a
common view of regional elk populations and their ecological role; and an accurate view of available
science. The long-range goal is to build a community of institutions capable of coordinated long-term
resource management under rapidly changing environmental conditions.
Invited Talk
PROGLACIAL LAKE-SEDIMENT RECORDS: SEARCHING FOR CLIMATIC SIGNIFICANCE IN A
SPLIT- PERSONALITY SYSTEM
Clark, Douglas H.
Geology Dept., Western Washington Univ., Bellingham, WA
Mountain glaciers are sensitive barometers of climate. The records they leave are, however, often
ambiguous and difficult to interpret. Because the direct evidence of past glacier changes
(moraines, till, striae) are generally incomplete, many of us have turned to proglacial lake sediments
to constrain glacier fluctuations upstream. The results have been a handful of spectacular records
interspersed with a plethora of much more complex and divergent records (the “split-personalities”).
My general explanation for these inconsistent results is that “location is everything,” to which I
would add “small is beautiful.”
The basic concept behind coring proglacial lakes is attractively simple: as glaciers expand (as a
result of cooling or increased snowfall), they flow across greater amounts of bedrock and produce
progressively greater amounts of fine glacial rock flour; as they retreat, less rock flour is produced.
Proglacial lakes act as efficient traps for this suspended sediment, and should effectively record
these fluctuations in clastic sedimentation. Although studies have validated this concept, deviations
from it rapidly mount as the watershed feeding a lake grows in size and complexity. For example, a
number of my Canadian colleagues have argued that the maximum rock flour flux to proglacial
lakes actually occurs during retreat, lagging the glacial maximum; this idea contrasts with my own
experience in the mountains of the western US where there seems to be little if any lag. The
difference appears to reflect the size differences of the glacier systems; those in Canada are mostly
moderately large valley glaciers that produce large lateral moraines, whereas the glaciers I study in
the Lower 48 are relatively small cirque glaciers. As the large valley glaciers retreat, the inner
slopes of the lateral moraines fail rapidly and send a large pulse of stored rock flour downstream
into any proglacial lakes. Conversely, the small cirque glaciers predominant in the mainland US
produce relatively small moraines, dominantly composed of coarse rockfall boulders and regolith
with relatively little rock flour; as these glaciers thin and retreat, there is relatively little fine
sediments stored in the moraines and the flux of rock flour decreases nearly instantaneously.
Larger basins introduce other complexities to the clastic sediment records of proglacial lakes: they
have increased potential for landslides, extreme rain events, or fires to disrupt the rock flour record.
Although workers have used various methods to isolate these effects, they invariably increase the
noise to signal. My solution to these problems has been to simplify and focus on small glaciers,
located in stripped crystalline bedrock basins, with minimal possible clastic input from other
sources.
Talk
EVALUATION OF SNODAS SNOW DEPTH AND SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT ESTIMATES FOR
THE COLORADO ROCKY MOUNTAINS, USA
Clow, David W. (1), Nanus, Leora (1,2), Verdin, Kristine L. (1), and Schmidt, Jeffrey (1)
(1) Colorado Water Science Center, U.S. Geological Survey, Denver, Colorado, (2) San Francisco
State University, 1600 Holloway Ave, San Francisco, California
The National Weather Service’s SNODAS program provides daily, gridded estimates of snow depth,
snow water equivalent (SWE), and related snow parameters at 1-km2 resolution for the conterminous
United States. In this study, SNODAS snow depth and SWE estimates were compared to
independent, ground-based snow survey data in the Colorado Rocky Mountains to assess SNODAS
13
accuracy at the 1-km2 scale. Accuracy also was evaluated at the basin scale by comparing SNODAS
model output to snowmelt runoff in 31 headwater basins with U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) stream
gauges. Results from the snow surveys indicated that SNODAS performed well in forested areas,
explaining 72% of the variance in snow depths, and 77% of the variance in SWE. However,
SNODAS showed poor agreement with measurements in alpine areas, explaining 16% of the
variance in snow depth and 30% of the variance in SWE. At the basin scale, snowmelt runoff was
moderately correlated (R2=0.52) with SNODAS model estimates. A simple method for adjusting
SNODAS SWE estimates in alpine areas was developed that uses relations between prevailing wind
direction, terrain, and vegetation to account for wind redistribution of snow in alpine terrain. The
adjustments substantially improved agreement between measurements and SNODAS estimates, with
the R2 of measured SWE values against SNODAS SWE estimates increasing from 0.42 to 0.63 and
RMSE decreasing from 12 to 6 cm. Results from this study indicate that SNODAS can provide
reliable data for input to moderate- to large-scale hydrologic models, which are essential for creating
accurate runoff forecasts. Refinement of SNODAS SWE estimates for alpine areas to account for
wind redistribution of snow could further improve model performance.
Poster
ESTIMATING PLANT SPECIES MIGRATION RATES IN THE PAST AND FUTURE
Cole, Kenneth L. (1), Truettner, Charles M. (1), Cobb, Neil S. (1), and Ironside, Kirsten (2)
(1) Northern Arizona University, Merriam-Powell Center for Environmental Research, Flagstaff, AZ,
(2) U. S. Geological Survey, Southwest Biological Science Center, Flagstaff, AZ
Models of future vegetation resulting from climate change scenarios have usually assumed either that
all species will geographically respond instantaneously to new climates, or that species will not
expand outside of their current ranges. For example, most forest stand simulator models assume
that seeds of all species are already present on the forest floor awaiting the appropriate climate
conditions for germination and growth. These two extreme options can be characterized as assuming
an infinite, or zero, species migration rate. Although both of these choices of migration rate are
clearly in error, modeling an acceptable intermediate rate between these two extremes has proven
problematic. Geographic responses to changing climate incorporate several different life
characteristics for each species, such as: seed dispersal rates and distances, successional stage,
and maturation time. Fortunately, many plant species have available fossil records recording their
migratory response following past climatic events. Other data on species migrations are captured in
historic plot comparisons and/or records of colonization following forest clear-cuts. Especially
promising are results when both fossil and historical data depict very similar rates of migrational
response. These rates can vary from very slow (Joshua Tree, ~ 2 m/yr) to extremely rapid (Aspen,
>500 m/yr), with most western tree species ranking somewhere between these extremes, such as
Colorado Pinyon (~ 50 to 100 m/yr) and Ponderosa Pine (~ 250 to 500 m/yr). The consequences of
these rates on modeled 2099 AD species distributions generated using several downscaled GCM
scenarios will be shown. Although incorporating any intermediate migration rate other than the
absurd infinite or zero options greatly affects the results, the specific migration rate selected has far
less influence on the results than the choice of the GCM scenario or variables selected for the
biometric model.
Poster
CLIMBING THE SPATIAL LADDER: MAPPING TREE MORTALITY WITH GLOBAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY
Cowles, Travis R., Hicke, Jeffrey A., and Meddens, Arjan J.H.
University of Idaho, Moscow, ID
Climate-driven tree mortality in recent decades has been documented globally. Current projections of
climate change threaten to increase the probability of these events in the coming decades through
increased susceptibility to drought, fire, and related insect outbreaks. Tree mortality events have the
potential to alter the biogeophysical and biogeochemical properties of forests worldwide. Thus,
14
monitoring studies of tree mortality are important for understanding drivers, assessing impacts, and
improving predictions of future events. Our project objective is to evaluate the capacity of globalscale remotely sensed imagery for mapping tree mortality. We focus on imagery from the MODerate
Resolution Imaging Spectrometer (MODIS), which has 500 m spatial resolution and daily temporal
resolution as well as a suite of products useful for evaluation. We searched for candidate sites of tree
mortality for intensive study using a published database of global tree mortality events. Using finerresolution imagery from Google Earth and Landsat, we found that few documented events possessed
the spatial intensity and extent needed for coarse resolution monitoring while also in the MODIS
period of record (2000 to present). Bark beetle outbreaks occurring in the past decade in western
North America, however, were found to be of sufficient spatial extent and intensity to be identified with
MODIS imagery. Thus, we chose a study location in Colorado that has experienced a major outbreak
of mountain pine beetle. Previous studies have produced maps of mortality with fine- and mediumspatial resolution remote sensing, thereby providing spatially explicit validation datasets of tree
mortality. We will discuss the development of our MODIS-based tree mortality detection methods and
application to broader sub-continental scale.
Poster
MONITORING HISTORICAL MOUNTAIN SNOWPACK EXTENT ACROSS WESTERN NORTH
AMERICA: CLIMATE DATA RECORD (CDR) DEVELOPMENT FROM LANDSAT AND MODIS
Crawford, Christopher J.
Department of Geography, Univ of Minnesota, Minneapolis, MN
The seasonal and perennial cyrosphere is showing longer-term retraction in response to climatic
warming. For western North America, this translates into seasonal mountain snowpack extent and
depth decline. Fortunately, satellite remote sensing offers a means to spatially monitor snowpack
change over remote mountainous terrain, and with a decadal image archive now accessible and
growing daily, climate data record (CDR) development is urgent. This paper presents a method for
deriving visible satellite CDRs of mountain snowpack extent from Landsat, validates snow cover
retrieval with MODIS Terra, and examines the statistical relationship to ground-based SNOTEL SWE,
near-surface air temperature, and precipitation observations. A Landsat seasonal snow cover CDR
(1975-2011) has been constructed for east-central Idaho and southwestern Montana – an
intermountain northwest sub-region. Cross-sensor snow map comparisons between Landsat TM,
ETM+, and MODIS Terra indicate that snow cover retrieval and classification methods exhibit high
spatial and temporal accuracy across complex mountainous terrain. Scatterplots between snow cover
area (SCA) and SNOTEL SWE, near-surface air temperature, and precipitation show statistically
significant linear dependence during 1975-2011. These results suggest that SCA during peak
snowmelt across east-central Idaho and southwestern Montana is contingent on spring temperature
and late winter precipitation. SCA and SNOTEL SWE are significantly correlated, but only share 25%
variance in common, which possibly suggest that the SCA-SWE relationship is spatially dependent.
Strong agreement between MODIS Terra and Landsat SCA estimates confirms multi-sensor
interoperability, and provides a viable alternative for filling in visible coverage gaps to achieve a
continuous CDR. SCA estimates since the mid-1970s are skewed towards low snowpack conditions,
especially since the early 1990s. Finally, the Landsat image archive is an unparalleled ensemble of
land surface observation that can be exploited for CDR development, and in return, high-resolution
spatially explicit CDRs of seasonal mountain snowpack extent across western North America can be
derived for past, present, and future timescales.
Invited Talk
PATTERN AND PROCESSES OF TREE MORTALITY AT LOCAL AND REGIONAL SCALES
Das, Adrian
U.S. Geological Survey, Sequoia and Kings Canyon Field Station, Three Rivers, CA
Forests change through the deaths and births of trees. Yet one of the most poorly understood
processes in forest dynamics is mortality. As a result, the mortality functions of many forest models
15
are essentially black boxes—empirical relationships that are tied to untested assumptions about
underlying mechanisms. To determine and adequately quantify the actual mechanisms driving tree
mortality, we must more thoroughly address a number of basic questions: What agents and
processes kill trees and how do they differ in their effect on forest structure and in their response to
climate? What are the most effective metrics, both temporally and spatially, of mortality risk in
individual trees? Can we scale these measures to make assessments of health at the stand scale?
What climatic variables best correlate with mortality? Can these correlates be used effectively to
forecast the future? I attempt here to synthesize some of our efforts to answer these questions,
primarily using recent research in our old growth stands in the Sierra Nevada of California. The work
stretches all the way from detailed assessments of individual tree mortality risk using tree rings to an
attempt to forecast mortality risk on a forest-wide scale 100 years in the future.
Invited Talk
EXTREME EVENTS IN MOUNTAIN CLIMATES: THE ROLE OF LARGE STORMS AND
ATMOSPHERIC RIVERS IN THE CLARITY OF LAKE TAHOE
Dettinger, Michael (1), and Schladow, Geoff (2)
(1) US Geological Survey, Scripps Institution of Oceanography, La Jolla, CA, (2) Tahoe
Environmental Research Center/UC Davis, Incline Village, NV
Major storms impact sediment and nutrient loadings to Lake Tahoe and ultimately the Lake's clarity.
Recent evaluations of the history of such storms and their impacts in the Tahoe basin indicate that a
particular kind of storm, known now as "atmospheric rivers (ARs)", plays a disproportionate role in
these processes and can be tied to a significant part of year-to-year fluctuations in Lake clarity. This
disproportionate role of ARs is due in part to the large precipitation amounts that ARs routinely bring
to the basin. This might not be such a problem except that, in addition to bringing the wettest storms,
ARs are the mechanisms for 80% of the warmest, most rain-dominated storms that have reached the
basin in the past 60 years. The warm, very wet storm conditions associated with ARs feed rapid and
enhanced runoff and thus enhanced erosion and transports of sediments and nutrients into the Lake.
To put these hydrometeorological findings into context, in current projections of climate change, AR
storms reaching central California (and presumably the Tahoe basin) are increasingly enhanced in
both frequency and magnitude as the 21st Century climate changes unfold.
Poster
HYDROLOGIC RESPONSE TO VARIABLE SNOWMELT INPUT IN TWO HEADWATER
CATCHMENTS IN THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES
Driscoll, Jessica M. (1), Molotch, Noah P. (2), Jepsen, Steven (2), Meixner, Thomas (1), and
Williams, Mark W. (2)
(1) University of Arizona, Department of Hydrology and Water Resources, Tucson, AZ, (2) Colorado
University at Boulder, Department of Geography and INSTAAR, Boulder, CO
Snowmelt from high elevation catchments is the primary source of water resources in the
Southwestern United States. Timing and duration of snowmelt and resulting catchment response can
show the physical and chemical importance of storage at the catchment scale. Storage flux within
subsurface materials provides a summary of catchment response to variation in timing and duration
of hydrologic input. The variability of past storage flux for a range of snowmelt conditions will provide
a quantitative assessment of response, potentially predictive of future snowmelt scenarios under
conditions of climate change. Storage of waters in subsurface materials provides a physical and
chemical buffer to hydrologic input variability. We expect that the hydrochemistry of catchments with
less storage capacity will more closely reflect input waters than a catchment with more storage and
therefore more geochemical evolution of waters. Two headwater catchments were compared for this
study; Emerald Lake Watershed (ELW) in the southern Sierra Nevada and Green Lake 4 (GL4) in the
Colorado Front Range. These sites have geochemically similar granitic terrane, and negligible
evaporation and transpiration due to their high elevation setting. Ten years (1996-2006) of data from
spatially-distributed snowmelt models were spatially and temporally aggregated to generate daily
16
values of snowmelt volume for each catchment area. Daily storage flux was calculated as the
difference between snowmelt input and catchment outflow values at a daily timestep, normalized to
the catchment area. Results show consistent storage loss in GL4 regardless of snowmelt rate, and
storage loss and gain in ELW due to change in snowmelt input relative a consistent outflow. Storage
losses could be due to underestimation of snowmelt input inherent in the snowmelt model, or a
connection to a deeper groundwater flowpath network.
Poster
REGIONAL CLIMATE VARIABILITY AND COMPOSITIONAL CHANGE AT UPPER TREELINE
ALONG A LATITUDINAL GRADIENT IN THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS
Elliott, Grant P. (1), Kipfmueller, Kurt F. (2)
(1) Department of Geography, University of Missouri, Columbia, MO, (2) Center for
Dendrochronology and Department of Geography, University of Minnesota, Minneapolis, MN
Abrupt increases in tree establishment throughout upper treeline ecotones during the latter half of the
twentieth century have been attributed to regional climate variability along a latitudinal gradient in the
Rocky Mountains. However, little attention has been directed towards examining the species-specific
response of these trees to changes in climate, particularly with respect to possible varying trajectories
between species positioned in closed-canopy conditions below timberline versus more open
environments above. This research seeks to measure the compositional change within upper treeline
ecotones along a latitudinal gradient in the Rocky Mountains to determine whether species
establishment patterns vary above and below timberline. We used dendroecological techniques to
sample trees in upper treeline ecotones on twenty-two study sites located on contrasting north- and
south-facing slopes in the Sangre de Cristo, Front Range, Medicine Bow, and Bighorn mountains. To
assess compositional distinctions between age-structure data above and below timberline, we used
ordination techniques. Preliminary results indicate that species dominance differs according to
regional moisture and temperature gradients, with establishment in the Sangre de Cristos and Front
Range trending from spruce-fir dominated closed forest towards bristlecone pine above timberline. In
the Bighorns, relatively dry growing-season conditions are evidently facilitating increased lodgepole
pine establishment upslope from fir-dominated closed forest. This research highlights the importance
of assessing species-specific responses to changes in climate, as future treeline ecotones comprised
of new species assemblages could introduce novel climate-disturbance interactions.
Poster
HIGH-ELEVATION PINES ARE LESS RESISTANT TO BARK BEETLE ATTACK THAN LOWELEVATION PINES
Ferrenberg, Scott
Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, University of Colorado, Boulder, CO
I tested the hypothesis that high elevation pine trees have fewer defenses and less resistance to bark
beetle attacks than pine trees found at lower elevations. My results support this hypothesis and show
a significant decrease in pine resin ducts with increasing elevation in the Colorado Front Range. I
also compared resin defenses (both volume and chemical content) of limber pines (Pinus flexilis) to
those in neighboring lodgepole pines (P. contorta) to determine if white pines are less defended
against bark beetles than other pine groups. Early results suggest that limber pines have fewer
chemical defenses against bark beetles than do lodgepoles. Resin defenses in pines have been
previously linked to both environmental and genetic factors; I considered climatic gradients and
selective sweeps from historical bark beetle epidemics as possible causes of the negative
relationship between increasing elevation and pine defenses. I will discuss the significance of my
findings in the context of range expansion by the mountain pine beetle (Dendroctonus ponderosae)
which has moved upslope over 800 m beyond its historical limits in some areas of the U.S. Rocky
Mountains and northward by hundreds of kilometers in Canada over the past 15 years. This range
expansion has contributed to the current unprecedented epidemic of the mountain pine beetle.
17
Several high elevation pine forests are reportedly suffering greater mortality following bark beetle
infestations than pine stands at lower elevation—likely as a result of fewer defenses—with several
important white pine species among the most impacted by the mountain pine beetle.
Talk THE SPATIAL VARIATION OF GLACIER RETREAT ACROSS THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN WEST,
USA
Fountain, Andrew (1), Basagic, Hassan (1), Thorneycroft, Kristina (1), McCabe, Gregory (2), and
Fagre, Daniel (3)
(1) Departments of Geology and Geography, Portland State University, Portland, OR; (2) US
Geological Survey, Denver, CO; (3) US Geological Survey, West Glacier, MT.
The American West is populated with over 8000 perennial snow and ice features of which roughly
3000 may be considered ‘glaciers’. However, all contribute to the hydrology of high alpine regions,
particularly during the hot and dry months late summer. Since about 1900 the glaciers have shrunk
by an average of 45%, with regional variations from 24% – 66%. The magnitude of area change
depends on both glacier size and regional location. Small glaciers (< 1 km2) show extreme variability
in area change while larger glaciers show much less variation. This points to the influence of local
topography enhancing or diminishing regional climate variations. Glaciers in the Pacific Northwest
have retreated much less than those in other regions underscoring the maritime influence of nearby
alpine landscapes. Long term trends in glacier shrinkage are controlled by warming air temperatures
whereas precipitation is an important factor in decadal variability. Some glaciers appear to be
relatively stable and even fewer are advancing. These glaciers are found on high stratovolcanos,
which provide unique conditions of elevation and geology beneficial to glacier stability.
Invited Panelist
NATIONAL CLIMATE ASSESSMENT
Garfin, Gregg M.
Institute of the Environment and School of Natural Resources and the Environment, University of
Arizona, Tucson, AZ
The National Climate Assessment (NCA), mandated by the 1990 U.S. Global Change Research Act,
evaluates, synthesizes and interprets the findings of the U.S. Global Change Research Program,
analyzes the effects of global change on various key sectors (such as forestry, water resources,
ecosystems), analyzes current trends in global change, both human and natural, and projects major
trends for the subsequent 25 to 100 years. Previous NCAs have presented concise reports on the
state of knowledge with respect to climate science, climate impacts on society, adaptation challenges
and research needs. The current NCA, which will formally report to the nation in late 2013, has
expanded goals that are highly compatible with the CIRMOUNT initiative. These include enhancing
the ability of the nation to anticipate, mitigate and adapt to changes in the global environment, and
advancing an inclusive, broad-based and sustained process for assessing and communicating
scientific knowledge of the impacts, risks, and vulnerabilities associated with a changing global
climate. The NCA’s main thrust is support of decision-making across the nation. The following
innovations in the current NCA are relevant to mountain climate researchers and institutions: focus on
international aspects of global change, assessment of cross-cutting issues (such as Water, Energy
and Land Use; Impacts on Biogeochemical Cycles), and the development of national climate change
indicators. Mountain-focused scientists can contribute to the current NCA through review of the
National Climate Assessment report (in late 2012), participation in working groups (e.g., Adaptation,
Mitigation and Decision Support), and participation in ongoing assessment, through the NCAnet.
NCAnet (http://ncanet.usgcrp.gov) is a network of volunteer organizations that contribute to interim
NCA reports, build capacity for sustained and ongoing assessment, and cultivate partnerships with
other research organizations and stakeholders. Benefits to participants include organized access to
the NCA process, and enhanced ability to convey research results to stakeholders.
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Poster
THE SOUTHWEST CLIMATE ASSESSMENT: KEY CLIMATE FINDINGS AND IMPLICATIONS
FOR THE REGION
Garfin, Gregg M.
School of Natural Resources and the Environment, University of Arizona, Tucson, AZ
The Assessment of Climate Change in the Southwest United States, is a technical input to the
National Climate Assessment. The report, developed by 110 authors, synthesizes and summarizes
the state of knowledge regarding climate change and its impacts in the six-state region that includes
Arizona, California, Colorado, Nevada, New Mexico, and Utah. The report looks at: climate and its
effects, on scales ranging from states to multi-state watersheds and across ecosystems and regions;
links between climate and resource supplies and demands; the vulnerabilities to climate variability
and change across the region and along the U.S.-Mexico border; and the adaptations in progress or
needed to address future climate-related changes. The report does not explicitly address the
mountainous areas of the Southwest; however, region-wide findings have implications for Southwest
mountain ranges, hydrology, ecosystems and communities. Key climate findings include the
following. Temperatures across the region are increasing. The period since 1950 has been warmer
than any period of comparable length in the last 600 years. Although recent drought has been severe,
droughts of the past 2,000 have exceeded the most severe and sustained drought during 1901-2010.
In the last decade, flows in the major river basins of the Southwest have been lower than their 20th
century averages; many snowmelt-fed streams in the region exhibited earlier snowmelt and earlier
center of mass of annual streamflows. Climate models project continued temperature increases, with
longer and hotter summer heat waves. Average precipitation is projected to decrease in the southern
part of the region, and perhaps increase in the northern part. Late season snowpack is projected to
decrease. Droughts are projected to become more frequent, intense and prolonged. More frequent
and intense winter flooding is projected for the western slopes of the Sierra Nevada, whereas
Colorado Front Range summer flooding is projected to increase.
Poster
BIOGEOGRAPHY OF ASPEN IN NORTH AMERICA: INFERRING CLIMATIC NICHE
DIFFERENTIATION
Greer, Burke.
Dept of Geography, University of California, Santa Barbara, Santa Barbara, CA
Populus tremuloides (Quaking Aspen), North America’s most widely distributed tree, is found in an
extreme variety of habitats. The growth and fecundity of aspen in suitable habitats is partly driven by
a suite of climatic characteristics whose means and extremes directly and indirectly increase or
decrease the suitability of sites. These characteristics of climate under which aspen survive and thrive
can be defined as their climatic niche. However, aspen populations in different regions may
experience very
different climates and have different phenotypes. Thus, for a species that is so widely distributed, how
does one characterize its climatic niche? To examine climatic niche for aspen, MaxEnt species
distribution models and supporting climate data are examined for regional patterns in predicted aspen
site suitability. The poster explores the similarities and differences of climatic niche for this species
and how regionally, climatic niche may be different.
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Invited Talk
A TREE-RING RECORD OF MONSOON CLIMATE IN THE U.S. SOUTHWEST
Griffin, Daniel (1,2), Woodhouse, Connie A. (1,2), Meko, David M. (1), Stahle, David W. (3), and
Faulstich, Holly L. (1,2)
(1) University of Arizona Laboratory of Tree-Ring Research, Tucson, AZ, (2) University of Arizona
School of Geography and Development, Tucson, AZ, (3) University of Arkansas Department of
Geosciences, Fayetteville, AR
Southwestern North America is characterized by a bimodal precipitation regime. Cool-season frontal
storms are the primary contributor to surface water supplies; however, the highly variable summer
monsoon is a critical source of moisture for the regionʼs social and environmental systems. As
southwestern resource managers plan for 21st century climate changes, understanding the nature of
long- term monsoon variability is more important than ever.
Our research group updated existing tree-ring collections from over 50 sampling sites in the
southwestern U.S. The new and archived specimens have been analyzed for width variations of
“earlywood” and “latewood,” the light- and dark-colored sub-annual components of conifer growth
rings that respectively form in spring and summer. The recently minted database of earlywood and
latewood chronologies offers a novel means for evaluating the regionʼs dual-season hydroclimatic
history. We offer an interpretation of the seasonal climate signal embedded within the new chronology
network and attempt to reconcile spatial patterns in the tree-growth response with the region's
dynamically independent precipitation regimes.
Targeting the Arizona-Sonora sub-region of the North American monsoon, we also present highquality reconstructions of June-August (monsoon) and October-April (cool-season) precipitation that
extend from 1539-2008. The reconstructions indicate that monsoon drought often overlapped, with
some lead or lag, with periods of protracted cool-season drought, including the 16th century
Megadrought, the 17th century Puebloan drought, and the ongoing 21st century drought. The
tendency for dry (wet) winters to be followed by wet (dry) summers appears more prevalent during
the 20th century than any other time in the past 470 years. Moreover, the monsoon reconstruction
indicates a range of drought persistence that is not represented in the instrumental era. These results
establish an accurate and precisely-dated geochronology for comparison with other climate proxy
records, raise questions about basic monsoon climatology based on instrumental data, and
underscore the importance of precipitation seasonality in the Southwest.
Poster
INTEGRATING CLIMATE SCIENCE INTO MANAGEMENT-ORIENTED ADAPTATION
SCENARIOS: TOWARDS A HYBRID APPROACH
Gross, John E. (1), Welling, Leigh A. (1), and Udall, Bradley H. (2)
(1) National Park Service, Climate Change Response Program, Ft. Collins, CO, (2) CU-NOAA
Western Water Assessment, Boulder, CO
Scenario development is well established in communities exploring strategies and actions for coping
with uncertainty, originally with military and corporate organizations, and more recently by the climate
change adaptation community. A broad spectrum of approaches and practices are in use. One end of
the spectrum is anchored by a heavy reliance on quantitative models, and the other by processes
relying primarily on input from expert knowledge holders and group participation. Both types of
approaches can inform broad-scale policies or engage stakeholders, but neither approach alone is
particularly well suited for informing decisions at scales relevant to land management agencies. The
National Park Service, working Global Business Network, recently prototyped a ‘middle ground’
approach for creating and exploring scenarios. This approach is designed to exploit the strengths of
both model-based and participatory approaches, with a focus on informing land management
decisions. Our prototype workshop included a ‘Rocky Mountain Divide’ case study and it emphasized
connecting climate drivers to key physical and biological processes, along with important social
drivers of change. Key components included a detailed review and synthesis of climate observations
20
and projections, climate-related impacts and effects, and other relevant factors (e.g., land use
change, demography, water availability and use). We prepared a plausible ‘least change’ - but not
‘most likely’ – climate base case, and used two techniques to develop more divergent scenarios. NPS
has been successfully applying climate change scenarios to strategic and park level planning for
nearly five years, and this new method is an important addition to this overall effort. We are designing
specific climate information templates and other materials that leverage ‘lessons learned’ from the
prototype to facilitate future park planning and decision making.
Invited Talk
THE ROLE OF MICROBES IN ACCUMULATING NO3- IN THE SURFACE WATERS OF ROCKY
MOUNTAIN NATIONAL PARK
Hall, E.K. and Baron J.S.
U.S. Geological Survey and Natural Resource Ecology Laboratory, Colorado State University, Fort
Collins, CO
NO3- concentrations have been rising in Loch Vale Watershed (LVWS) located along the eastern
slope of Rocky Mountain National Park from a mean annual concentration of 0.23 +/- 0.02 mg L-1
between 1991 and 1999 to a contemporary concentration of 0.34 +/- 0.06 between 2000 and 2006.
While total nitrogen in the precipitation has been increasing over this period the signal has become
increasingly dominated by NH4+ rather than NO3-. We collected precipitation from two national
atmospheric deposition sites (NADP CO89 and CO98) within the watershed, a snow pit dug in May
below tree line, and an alpine snowfield located above the highest lake in the watershed in
September. In addition we collected surface water samples at four times during the ice free season,
from two headwater lakes, a connecting stream, and the lowest lake in the watershed during 2011. At
the outlet to the watershed we collected surface water samples weekly, year-round. We used dual
(15N,18O) isotope analysis of NO3- to evaluate whether NO3- in the watershed was arriving in
precipitation and accumulating (inert), or whether NH4+ was being converted to NO3- by Bacteria and
Archaea (reactive). While the δ15N-NO3- of all precipitation samples ranged from ~ -5 to 5‰ the δ15NNO3- of the all surface water samples was constrained within that range between -1 to 2‰. However,
the δ18O-NO3- for precipitation was enriched in O18 (60 to 80‰) relative to the surface water (0 to
50‰) and thus the two pools of NO3- did not overlap in oxygen isotope concentration suggesting that
the nitrate in the surface water had been nitrified by microorganisms and was distinct in origin from
NO3- in precipitation. In addition, the δO18-NO3- of the surface water became increasingly depleted in
O18 suggesting an increasing contribution of nitrification to the dissolved NO3- pool as the season
progressed. We used analysis of the microbial stoichiometry coupled with analysis of relative nitrifier
abundance (qPCR of amoA gene) to identify hotspots for nitrification and nitrogen cycling in general
in time and space within LVWS. Understanding the microbial mechanism for this watershed scale
biogeochemical signal has important implications for how alpine ecosystems are being altered in the
face of global change.
Poster
INCREASED WINTER-SEASON SNOWPACK ABLATION FOLLOWING SEVERE FOREST
DISTURBANCE: IMPLICATIONS FOR NEGATIVE FEEDBACKS ON WATER AVALIABILITY
Harpold, Adrian A. (1), Brooks, Paul D. (2), Biederman, Joel A. (2), and Gochis, David (3)
(1) Institute for Artic and Alpine Research, University of Colorado, Boulder, CO, (2) University of
Arizona, Tucson, AZ, (3) National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO
Water resources in the Western U.S. are heavily reliant on snowmelt runoff from forested areas, and
these areas are subject to a myriad of potential disturbances with relatively unknown effects on
larger-scale water balance. Warming temperatures and drought have increased tree mortality from
water stress, insects and fire in Western U.S. forests. Using intensive snowpack measurements at
several spatial scales we demonstrate increased winter-season snowpack ablation following
disturbance at two sites: 1. insect-caused tree die-off in Wyoming and 2. high-severity fire in New
Mexico. In both cases, annual peak snowpack is compared between the post-disturbance forest and
21
a healthy reference. As expected, new snow accumulation after storms increased in the postdisturbance forests because of reduced sublimation of intercepted snow. The peak snowpack
decreased in the disturbed forests, however, suggesting increased winter ablation prior to the onset
of melt. Several lines of evidence suggest that increases in sublimation were responsible for the
increased winter snowpack ablation following disturbance: 1. Cold content of the snowpack at peak
accumulation, and 2. Water isotopes from the snowpacks showing increased kinetic fractionation
during the winter in disturbed forests. The distribution of snowpacks at peak accumulation suggest
that reductions in shading of the snow surface following disturbance was the primary driver of
increased winter-season sublimation in these semi-arid mountains where the vapor pressure deficit is
high, cloud-cover is relatively low, and turbulent kinetic energy is likely sufficient to transport water
vapor. The importance of shortwave radiation to the snowpack energy balance suggests that
thresholds in canopy loss might be necessary to trigger increased snowpack sublimation that is
strongly dependent on slope and aspect. We therefore hypothesize that high-severity disturbance
might elicit a different snowpack response than the more moderate severity historical disturbance
regime with which forests co-evolved. High-severity disturbance could result in less water availability
for vegetation in topographic positions exposed to more radiation, constituting a negative feedback in
montane forests that may influence the spatiotemporal patterns of tree mortality. When combined
with a presumed increase in energy inputs and ablation during melt, increases in winter vapor losses
could have severe but unknown effects on larger-scale water balance and downstream water
resources.
Poster
TO SHIFT OR NOT TO SHIFT – THE EFFECT OF SEASONAL CLIMATE, MOUNTAIN PEAK
LOCATION AND LIFE-FORM ON RANGE SHIFT RATES
Harsch, Melanie A. and HilleRisLambers, Janneke
Department of Biology, University of Washington, Seattle, WA
Climate is changing more rapidly at continental than oceanic sites and during the winter than the
summer months. We ask the questions: how does the seasonal timing of climate change affect range
expansion rate and are range expansion rates consistent across mountain peaks and life forms? We
calculated range expansion rates, using occurrence records from online plant databases for 228
species (17-193 species per region) with more than 30 years of records within nine defined regions.
Expansion rate was estimated for each species-region combination as the slope of the relationship
between elevation and year. Seasonal climate change was estimated for the maximum elevation
recorded for each species-region combination using PRISM data as the slope for the relationship
between the climate variable (maximum, minimum and mean winter and summer temperature, snow,
summer precipitation) and year for the period 1960 – 2009. We modeled the rate of change in
elevation within a generalized linear mixed effect model, specifying genus as a random effect. Results
depended upon region. For all but one region, species tended to be shifting upward (53%, 273/514)
with greatest expansion rates observed for the tree life-form. However, only 7% (13/177) were
shifting upslope at the excluded region. The best model for all regions included three summer and
two winter climate parameters. Expansion was more likely to occur where summer precipitation, the
minimum summer temperature, and snow increased more rapidly and less likely to occur where the
maximum summer temperature and maximum winter temperature increased more rapidly. If the one
outlying peak is removed, the only critical climate variable is the rate of maximum summer
temperature change. The critical difference between regions and range shift direction was the rate of
winter warming and snowpack decline. Results indicate the relative importance of climate on range
expansion rates, especially during the winter months.
22
Poster
ASSOCIATION OF SPRUCE BEETLE OUTBREAKS IN NORTHWESTERN COLORADO WITH
INTERANNUAL AND MULTIDECALDAL-SCALE CLIMATE VARIATION
Hart, S.J. (1), Eisenhart, K.S. (2), Jarvis, D. (3), Kulakowski, D., (3), and Veblen, T.T. (1)
(1) Department of Geography, University of Colorado, Boulder, CO, (2) Geosciences Department,
Edinboro University of Pennsylvania, Edinboro, PA, (3) Department of Geography, Clark University,
Worchester MA
Here we use existing and new site-specific tree-ring reconstructions of historical (1650 CE –
present) spruce beetle (SB; Dendroctonus rufipennis) outbreak to better describe the synchrony of
outbreak across northwestern Colorado. We also examine associations between SB outbreak and
the Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI), El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Pacific Decadal
Oscillation (PDO), and the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO). We found that periods of
increased radial growth in understory trees lagged dates of SB-induced mortality by 0-10 years.
Since the frequency of death dates is heavily skewed towards more recent time periods, the
confirmation that SB mortality and release periods occur synchronously statistically confirms that
release periods can be used reconstruct SB outbreak in NW Colorado. We found that the initiation of
SB outbreaks across all sites was highly synchronized at decadal to multidecadal timescales. The
initiation of SB outbreaks across northwestern Colorado was associated with periods positive PDSI,
positive phases of the AMO and negative phases of ENSO and PDO. The synchronous timing of SB
outbreaks across NW Colorado and the association with PDSI, ENSO, PDO, and AMO suggests
that climate is an important driver of SB outbreak in NW Colorado.
Invited Talk
ACTIONABLE SCIENCE AND DECISION SUPPORT FOR MANAGING RISKS FROM CHANGING
MOUNTAIN CLIMATES
Hartmann, Holly C.
Arid Lands Information Center, University of Arizona, Tucson, AZ
Mountain climate researchers are increasingly called upon to provide more than basic research that is
communicated primarily to other scientists. In practical terms, what does it mean to provide useinspired, usable, or actionable science, or to provide decision support to resource managers and
policy makers? Providing actionable science and decision support is especially challenging for the
mountain climate research community because mountain climates are important across many, often
intertwined, issues and sectors, and conditions are changing more rapidly, and are expected to
continue to do so, than in many other regions. Decision makers have a broad range of abilities to
access, interpret, and apply scientific information, and their decision processes require different types
of engagement and research products. Further, simply providing data and information is insufficient;
knowledge development that connects to the values and wisdom of decision makers and
communities is needed as well. This presentation describes strategies and tactics to help mountain
climate researchers, individually and as a community, support decision makers effectively, yet
efficiently. Topics include engaging with ongoing activities, connecting with a variety of decision
making frameworks, linking across temporal and spatial scales, considering different types of
adaptation, providing clarity in the characterization of confidence and uncertainty, and supporting the
use of scenarios to reduce, characterize, or embrace uncertainty as appropriate.
23
Poster
REGIONAL TREE MORTALITY FROM BARK BEETLE OUTBREAKS AND WILDFIRES IN
WESTERN NORTH AMERICA: EXTENT AND IMPACTS TO CARBON STOCKS
Hicke, Jeffrey A. (1), Meddens, A. J. H. (1), and Allen, Craig D. (2)
(1) Department of Geography, University of Idaho, Moscow, ID, (2) Jemez Mountain Field Station,
Los Alamos, NM
Bark beetle outbreaks and wildfires are forest disturbances that respond strongly to climate and affect
future climate through carbon cycling. Extensive tree mortality has occurred in western North
America as a result of these disturbances, yet estimates to date have relied on data sources that
include live as well as killed trees. Here we present an analysis of tree mortality that uses recent
databases of mortality area and quantifies impacts to forest carbon stocks. Mortality area from bark
beetles was derived from aerial surveys in 1997-2010 in the western US and 2001-2010 in British
Columbia that were converted to mortality area by multiplying by species-specific crown areas and, in
the case of the US, adjusted for underestimation. We summed moderate- and high-severity burned
areas in forests from the Monitoring Trends in Burn Severity (MTBS) database from 1984-2009 to
estimate mortality area from forest fires. Mortality area was then combined with spatially explicit
maps of carbon stocks to estimate the amount of carbon in killed trees. Notable findings include that
the mortality area from bark beetle outbreaks in the western US was comparable to the mortality area
in British Columbia during the last few decades. In the western US, mortality area from bark beetles
was similar to or exceeded that from forest fires. Carbon stocks in trees killed by these two
disturbance types (beetles and fire) had similar spatial and temporal patterns as tree mortality,
illustrating the importance of these disturbances in governing regional forest carbon fluxes.
Poster
DECADAL- TO MILLENNIAL-SCALE INTERACTIONS AMONG CLIMATE, FIRE, AND
ECOSYSTEM PROCESSES IN SUBALPINE FORESTS OF ROCKY MOUNTAIN NATIONAL
PARK, COLORADO
Higuera, Philip E. (1), Dunnette, Paul V. (1), Briles, Christy (2), and Whitlock, Cathy (3).
(1) College of Natural Resources, University of Idaho, Moscow, ID 83844, (2) Department of
Geography, University of Colorado, Denver, CO, 80045, (3) Department of Earth Sciences, Montana
State University, Bozeman, MT, 59715
We developed a network of six high-resolution lake-sediment records from Rocky Mountain National
Park to study the impacts of decadal- to centennial-scale climate variability on fire activity over the
past 6000 years. Drivers of past fire regimes were inferred through comparisons of charcoal-based
biomass burning and fire frequency to pollen-based vegetation reconstructions and independent
climate proxies of relative moisture. Intensive sampling of an additional record (5 yr/sample),
including sediment carbon (C) and nitrogen (N) elemental and isotopic analyses and magnetic
susceptibility, yields unprecedented insights into the ecological impacts of fire from decadal through
millennial scales.
Biomass burning varied with changes in effective moisture from decadal through multi-centennial
scales, with increased moisture directly related to greater biomass burning. This pattern holds
through subtle shifts in pollen-inferred forest composition, making vegetation change alone an
unlikely cause. In contrast, moister conditions likely allowed for greater biomass production within
subalpine forests, which in turn facilitated more frequent and/or severe burning.
One third of inferred fires in the intensively-sampled record was associated with distinct increases in
sediment magnetic susceptibility, indicating local, high-severity events. Superposed epoch analysis
centered on these events revealed distinct disturbance signatures in sediment C and N elemental and
isotope ratios. Increased sediment δ15N immediately following high-severity fires indicates watershedwide N loss. During a period of frequent high-severity burning ca. 3500-5000 years ago (mean return
interval ≈ 100 yr), fires were followed by significant declines in sediment δ15N for several decades,
indicative of decreased terrestrial N availability during succession. The compounding effects of
repeated burning during this period lead to a progressively tightened N cycle, indicated by a
24
pronounced downward trend in sediment δ15N. Such long-term impacts of fire on N cycling indicate
that higher fire frequency, as anticipated in the future, may delay recovery of forest N stocks and
potentially limit subalpine C storage.
Poster
QUANTIFYING ENVIRONMENTAL CONTROLS ON SAP FLOW IN GREAT BASIN TREE
SPECIES AND THEIR POSSIBLE SIGNIFICANE FOR MOUNTAIN GROUNDWATER RECHARGE
UNDER ANTHROPOGENIC CLIMATE CHANGE
Johnson, Brittany G. (1,2), Jason, Richard L. (1), and Arnone III, John A. (1)
(1) Division of Earth and Ecosystem Sciences, Desert Research Institute, Reno, NV, (2) Graduate
Program of Hydrologic Sciences, University of Nevada, Reno, Reno, NV
Transpiration of trees in mountain recharge zones may significantly limit the input of water to
groundwater systems in Great Basin mountain ranges. This removal of vadose zone soil water
eventually constrains the bioavailability of water for both agriculture and human consumption. The
objective of this study is to develop a quantitative understanding of the response of sap flow to key
modulating environmental factors. Quantifying the interaction between these factors will determine
which have greatest influence on transpiration rates and how rates may be affected by shifts in these
factors under anthropogenic climate change. Data recorded from a mature tree growing at a montane
site (2,730 m) on the western slope of the Snake Range in eastern Nevada measured during a the
2011 growing season indicated that at a minute-to-minute timescale, photosynthetically active
radiation (PAR), and covarying air temperature and vapor pressure deficit (VPD), most strongly
modulated diurnal patterns of sap flow. On a daily timescale, observed maximum daily sap flow
patterns were most strongly correlated with maximum soil and air temperatures. Surprisingly,
precipitation events and declines in topsoil (0-30 cm) volumetric water content during the growing
season by 5-10% appeared to have little effect on sap flow. This suggests that soil water potentials
remained in a range that still enabled trees to extract water easily. Anticipated higher VPDs under
projected climate scenarios may further increase transpirational water losses.
Poster
YEAR-ROUND PRODUCTIVITY IN A MID-MONTANE MIXED CONIFER FOREST IN THE SIERRA
NEVADA
Kelly, Anne E. and Goulden, Michael L.
University of California Irvine, Department of Earth System Science, Irvine, CA
Understanding how the physical environment controls ecosystem growth and water use is
fundamental to predicting the impacts of future climate change. Historical natural history literature
assumes that the mixed conifer forest of the Sierra Nevada has a short growing season due to cold
snowy winters and dry Mediterranean summers, yet the limiting factors on the growing season remain
unknown. The literature describes the large stature and high productivity of these forests, but no
studies have quantified the climatic controls on ecosystem function. We used eddy covariance, sap
flux, soil moisture, snow water content, soil respiration, and direct biomass measurements to
understand how winter cold and summer drought may limit growth at a mixed conifer site in the Kings
River Experimental Watershed. We show that this forest exhibits a year-round growing season due to
a combination of moderate canopy climate, access to deep soil water, and high photosynthetic rates
at low temperatures.
25
Poster
SHIFTS IN ALPINE AND SUB-ALPINE PLANT SPECIES ABUNDANCES OVER NEARLY FIVE
DECADES IN A WESTERN NORTH AMERICA MOUNTAIN RANGE
Kopp, Christopher W. and Cleland, Elsa E.
University of California, San Diego. Division of Biological Sciences. La Jolla, CA
Shifting range distributions observed worldwide provide some of the best evidence of species
responses to increasing global temperatures over the past century. Many predictions of species
range shifts are based on the climate envelope approach, with the null prediction that species ranges
will shift poleward and upward in elevation to track suitable climate while populations at lower
elevations and latitudes retract. In 2010 we conducted a re-survey of plant species distribution and
abundance in eastern-California’s White Mountains, in areas originally surveyed by Harold Mooney in
1961. Species presence and abundance data were collected along line transects between elevations
of 2,900 m and 4,000 m. We found that Artemisia rothrockii (Rothrock sagebrush) had increased in
abundance at the upper reaches of its elevational distribution. In addition, we observed significant
declines in abundances of three alpine cushion plants: Trifolium andersonii, Phlox condensata, and
Eriogonum ovalifolium at the middle elevations of their distribution but not at the upper reaches.
These shifts occurred during a period when June through October mean temperatures increased
0.98 °C and mean annual precipitation declined by 53 mm. Together these results suggest that
warmer and drier conditions may be negatively impacting alpine plant species while promoting
expansion of lower-elevation sagebrush in the White Mountains, possibly signaling the beginning of a
transition of this mountain range’s alpine plant community to sagebrush steppe.
Poster
DECADAL SNOW COVER TRENDS IN HEMLOCK-FIR ECOTONE AREAS OF THE WESTERN
OREGON CASCADES VIA MODIS SNOW COVER PRODUCTS
Kostadinov, Tihomir S., Lookingbill, Todd R., Phelan, Conor, and Strickler, Ethan
University of Richmond, Richmond, VA
Snow cover extent and persistence have important implications for planetary energy balance and
climate sensitivity to forcings. Snowmelt runoff dominates the hydrological cycle in mountainous
regions of the western USA. Century-scale changes (mostly declines, especially at lower elevations)
in snow cover and snow water equivalent (SWE) have been documented in the Pacific Northwest and
attributed to climate change. Climate change is also expected to cause shifts in plant species
distributions along elevation gradients, but the underlying mechanisms may be significantly more
complicated than can be attributed to temperature changes alone. Here, we assume that trends in
snow cover persistence are one of the main factors that influence the competitive dynamics of Tsuga
heterophylla (Western hemlock) vs Abies procera (Noble fir) and Abies amabilis (Pacific silver fir)
because of the differential establishment and survival responses of their seedlings to snow. Using
information from species distribution modeling at the H.J. Andrews Experimental Forest (HJA), the
ecotone between these forest community types was predicted and mapped for the entire Western
Oregon Cascades. Decadal trends in snow cover for this ecotone region were determined from
MODIS Terra binary snow cover remote sensing products (2000-2011). We only considered MODIS
pixels that were similar to the HJA modeled ecotone in land cover (evergreen forest), elevation and
radiation exposure (latitude, slope, aspect). We recorded the dates of seasonal snow disappearance
in the ecotone region, considering at least 90% of valid ecotone pixels being snow-free as the
disappearance criteria. Preliminary results indicate a decadal-scale trend of later disappearance of
snow in the hemlock-fir ecotone, consistent with an observed concurrent decadal trend of downslope
shift in hemlock seedling establishment at the HJA. However, significance of the snow disappearance
trend is sensitive to the criteria used. Frequent and persistent cloud cover further confounds the
analysis and illustrates the need to supplement satellite data with spatially explicit long-term ground
observations.
26
Talk
ALPINE TREELINE WARMING EXPERIMENT: EFFECTS OF MICROCLIMATE ON SUBALPINE
SEEDLING ESTABLISHMENT WITHIN AND BEYOND TWO SPECIES’ CURRENT ELEVATION
RANGES
Kueppers, Lara M. (1, 2), Castanha, Cristina (2, 3), Moyes, Andrew (1), Germino, Matthew (4), and
Torn, Margaret (2, 3)
(1) University of California, Merced, CA, (2) Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, Berkeley, CA,
(3) University of California, Berkeley, CA, (4) USGS, Boise, ID
To experimentally test model projections of subalpine tree species’ uphill migration with climate
change, we established the Alpine Treeline Warming Experiment (ATWE) at Niwot Ridge, CO.
Common gardens subject to warming and watering treatments are replicated at three sites: near the
lower limit of subalpine forest (Subalpine), within the alpine-treeline ecotone (Treeline), and in the
alpine tundra, beyond the current elevation ranges of the species (Alpine). Seeds of limber pine and
Engelmann spruce have been sown each year since 2008 to quantify germination and survival and
their dependence on climatic factors. In all sites, preliminary results indicate the heating and watering
treatments shifted the microclimate envelopes into which subalpine tree seedlings might recruit. In
2010 and 2011, daily 5-10 cm soil temperature was greater in heated and heated+watered plots,
while moisture was lower in heated plots and slightly greater in watered plots. Preliminary results
indicate timing of seed germination is controlled by germination degree days, with earlier germination
in the Subalpine and in heated plots. In 2010, limber pine seedling survival decreased with increasing
growing degree days and with the number of days that soil volumetric water content was below 8%.
This soil moisture threshold corresponded with seedling water potentials of -4 MPa and shutdown of
stomatal conductance and photosynthesis in first year seedlings, suggesting shallow soil water
availability is critical to seedling establishment within and beyond this species’ range. Results from
2011 and Engelmann spruce also appear to support the importance of soil water availability to
seedling establishment. Thus, emerging results from the ATWE indicate that contrary to expectations,
warming may not promote seedling establishment at Treeline and in the Alpine if it leads to longer,
warmer growing seasons and extended periods with low soil moisture. Consistent with expectations,
warming may reduce seedling establishment in Subalpine forest.
Talk
DIRECT AND INDIRECT EFFECTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON BUNDLES OF GRASSLAND
ECOSYSTEM SERVICES
Lamarque, Pénélope, Lavorel, Sandra, Quétier, Fabien, and Mouchet ,Maud
Laboratoire d’Ecologie Alpine, UMR 5553 CNRS Université Joseph Fourier, BP 53, 38041 Grenoble
Cedex 9, France
Land-use and climate change are pointed out as the primary causes of global biodiversity loss and
ecosystem services. However, while the consequences of climate change on ecosystem properties
and associated services are well documented, unravelling the cascading impacts of climate change
on ecosystem services through changes in agricultural management is largely overlooked. Here, we
present a trait-based framework to understand how climate change is affecting trade-offs among
ecosystem services under varying management conditions. Using alternative scenarios we
discriminated direct effects of climate change on ecosystem functioning related to plant functional
properties, from indirect effects through farmers’ management adaptations. Ecosystem service supply
was overall more sensitive to climate than to induced management change, but bundles ecosystem
services remained stable across scenarios. However these responses were strongly influenced by
the spatial extent of management change, as plot level effects on ecosystem properties need to be
scaled up to the entire landscape. The trait-based approach revealed how interactions and trade-offs
among ecosystem were determined by the combination of common driving traits and common
responses to changes in fertility.
27
Invited Talk
ADAPTATION OF MOUNTAIN REGIONS TO DROUGHT RECURRENCE IN A CONTEXT OF
GLOBAL CHANGE
Lavorel, S. (1), Courbaud, B. (2), Dobremez, L. (3), Nettier, B. (3), Lamarque, P.(1), Véron, F. (2), and
Bonet, R. (4)
(1) Laboratoire d’Ecologie Alpine, CNRS UMR 5553, Université Joseph Fourier, Grenoble, France,
(2) Unité Ecosystèmes Montagnards, Irstea, Grenoble, France, (3) Unité Développement des
Territoires de Montagne, Irstea, Grenoble, France, (4) Parc National des Ecrins, Gap, France
The mechanisms of adaptation of socio-ecosystems from European mountain regions to recently
observed and predicted recurring drought are poorly known. In spite of the paucity of either long-term
or experimental data on responses of both grassland and forest ecosystems limits, available evidence
suggests a strong resilience to recent droughts, in relation to adaptive mechanisms to a long-term
history of climate variability at multiple time scales, and as compared to other factors such as
management for grasslands or storms for forests. At the same time, annual-scale drought impacts on
grassland production require farmers and shepherds to propose short-term tactic adaptations that
usually rely on pre-existing coping abilities determined by current farm and management structures,
and are modulated by current economic and political context. In contrast, foresters appear less
responsive because responses of tree mortality and recruitment over the long-term are uncertain, and
external factors of markets and policy are likely to prevail over management decision. Mid-term
(2030) scenarios were constructed using a participative approach, and combined two climate
alternatives (continued variability vs. drastic change) and two socio-economic alternatives (globallyvs. regionally-oriented). Farmers and foresters responses to these scenarios were consistent with
current observed responses, with stronger adaptation actions by farmers than by foresters, and with
strong interactions with socio-economic conditions. In the case of grasslands direct ecological and
indirect management-related effects of drastic droughts resulted in a shift in ecosystem services from
currently predominant production and cultural services, to greater provision of regulation services of
interest to global society rather than to the local economy. In all cases trajectories of agricultural and
environmental policies, and decision support structures will be key determinants of the future of
mountain socio-ecological systems. Long-term observation of socio-ecological systems also appears
essential to address fundamental uncertainties on future trajectories, and to foster local adaptation.
Poster
SMALL AUTOMATED SENSOR OF PLANT FLOWERING AND VEGETATIVE BUD BREAK
Lintz, H.E. (1), Kruger, A. (2,3), and Niemeier, J.J. (2)
(1 ) Oregon Climate Change Research Institute, Oregon State University, Corvallis, OR, (2) IIHRHydroscience & Engineering, University of Iowa, Iowa City,IA, (3) Department Electrical & Computer
Engineering, University of Iowa, Iowa City, IA
Biological events such as bud break and flowering have major implications on population dynamics
and ecosystem function in mountainous areas. For example, variation in the date of bud break, if
measured precisely and continuously, quantifies biological effects of climatic variation. Such groundbased quantification can supplement and validate information acquired from satellite-borne sensors,
which cannot resolve data to species or monitor events when clouds are present. Although some
validation of plant activity is being acquired with digital cameras and networks of human observers,
these options for measurement of bud break and flowering can be costly and labor intensive. Digital
cameras have sizeable power consumption and often do not resolve details associated with
vegetative bud break in evergreen plants. Here we describe a small automatic device that can be
placed on a plant to sense the date of bud opening that leads to leaf or flower formation. The device
facilitates continuous monitoring of plant buds at numerous sites. The device consists of an optical
fiber that illuminates a target bud with light obtained from an inexpensive light-emitting diode (LED). A
second fiber detects reflected light from the LED and guides it to a photodetector where the signal is
amplified and then recorded. Changes in the intensity of reflected light indicate changes in bud
activity. Changes in the signal are recorded every fifteen seconds and stored up to nine months
without replacement of batteries. The sensor moves beyond the current options of sensing flowering
28
and bud break by offering high precision, automation, low power consumption, and capacity for
standardized, high-throughput phenotyping at the scale of plant buds.
Poster
CURRENT EVIDENCE FOR TREE SPECIES MIGRATION IN THE PACIFIC MOUNTAINOUS
UNITED STATES: LINKS TO CLIMATE CHANGE, MANAGEMENT, AND NATURAL
DISTURBANCE
Lintz, H.E. (1), Yost, A. (2), Gray, A. (3), and Monleon, V. (3)
(1) Oregon Climate Change Research Institute, College of Earth Ocean and Atmospheric Science,
Oregon State University, Corvallis, OR; (2) Oregon Department of Forestry, Salem, OR; (3) Resource
Monitoring and Assessment Program, Pacific Northwest Research Station, USDA Forest Service,
Corvallis, OR
Evidence for tree species migration was examined for the Pacific coastal and mountainous US by
comparing the geographic footprints and central tendencies of seedlings and adult trees by species.
Data from the Forest Inventory and Analysis Program were used. Frequency distributions between
life stages were compared for elevation, latitude, and longitude for all species with greater than 50
occurrences in California, Oregon, and Washington. Our analyses show that migration distance and
direction is variable by species, and Pinus monticola and Cornus nuttallii are leading the pack in polar
opposite directions. The majority of tree species show strong and statistically significant evidence for
migration. For example, the largest magnitude of difference is approaching the lowest reported for
tree species that migrated over longer periods of time associated with Quaternary climate change. All
drought tolerant species are moving northward. We also examined migration signals in the context of
climate anomalies, natural disturbance, and management. The distance and direction of migratory
gradients correspond to changes in long-term climate means and anomalies for summer relative
humidity, summer vapor pressure deficit, summer growing season length, and summer precipitation.
Finally, forest cutting was not related to migration gradients of species; however, natural disturbance
interacted with climate means and anomalies to explain variation in elevation changes for species.
These analyses suggest that long-term climate means interact with climate anomalies and
disturbance to explain variation in current tree species migration distances and directions.
Talk RECONCILING DISPARATE TRENDS IN HIGH-ELEVATION HYDROLOGY AND LOWELEVATION PRECIPITATION MEASUREMENTS: IS PRECIPITATION DECLINING IN PACIFIC
NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS?
Luce, Charles H. (1), Holden, Zachary A. (2), Abatzoglou, John (3), and Pederson, Greg (4)
(1) USDA Forest Service R&D, Boise, ID, (2) USDA Forest Service, Region 1, Missoula, MT, (3)
University of Idaho, Moscow, ID, (4) USGS Northern Rocky Mountain Science Center, Bozeman, MT
IPCC reports have repeatedly noted that mountain landscapes are among the most difficult places to
predict the effects of climate change on water resources. Declining snowpacks, earlier streamflow
timing, and declining streamflow are a few of the trends that have been noted in the mountains of the
Pacific Northwest over the last 60 years. Efforts to answer questions regarding causality of the trends
are partially hampered by the lack of uninterrupted high elevation precipitation data spanning this
period. The large observational network of precipitation gages primarily located in lower-elevation
valleys (USHCNv2) has seen only slight declines over the same period, suggesting that most of the
trends have been related to temperature increases. An important assumption behind that conclusion,
however, is that high elevation precipitation is strongly correlated with low elevation precipitation. We
present a series of interrelated analyses demonstrating that declines in orographic enhancement of
precipitation offer an additional mechanism for describing important geographical and temporal
patterns in observed trends and sensitivities. We also offer theory and observations supporting the
idea that trends in orographic precipitation may be a manifestation of warming air temperatures,
potentially representing a second pathway for climate change effects in mountain landscapes. The
distinction in process is important. Many ecological processes are much more sensitive to water
29
balances than temperature, and the combined effects may be more disruptive than anticipated.
Furthermore, choices about adaptation for water resource management are sensitive to mechanisms
causing shifts in timing.
Poster
ALLOCATION TO CONSTITUTUVE DEFENSE PREDICTS MORTALITY IN PIÑON PINE DURING
DROUGHTS OF THE PAST CENTURY
Macalady, Alison K. (1), Kläy, Matthias (2), Bugmann, Harald (2), Gaylord, Monica E. (3), English,
Nathan E. (4), Allen, Craig D. (5), Swetnam Thomas S. (1), and McDowell Nate G. (6).
(1) University of Arizona, Laboratory of Tree-Ring Research, Tucson, AZ, (2) Swiss Federal Institute
of Technology (ETH), Dept of Environmental Systems Science, Forest Ecology, Zürich, Switzerland,
(3) Northern Arizona University, School of Forestry, Flagstaff, AZ, (4) School of Earth and
Environmental Sciences, James Cook University, Townsville, QLD, Australia, (5) USGS, Jemez
Mountain Field Station, Los Alamos, NM (6) Los Alamos National Laboratory, Earth and
Environmental Sciences, Los Alamos, NM
Tree mortality associated with drought and insect infestations is widespread and has potentially
cascading effects in mountain ecosystems. However, models of forest dynamics are limited in their
ability to simulate mortality during drought, in part because the processes underlying tree death are
poorly constrained. Allocation to defense is hypothesized to be a key element in tree avoidance of
mortality during drought accompanied by insect and pathogen pressure, but there are few empirical
tests of its importance in determining the fate of trees across landscapes. Here we investigate the
role of allocation to constitutive (background) defense in the mortality of piñon pine (P. edulis) during
two widespread drought-associated mortality events of the past century. We measured vertical resin
ducts in the tree rings of 102 pairs of trees that lived and died during the 2000s and 1950s droughts
at sites across a latitudinal gradient in New Mexico, USA. Statistical models of piñon mortality risk
based on resin duct parameters coupled with radial growth metrics correctly classify 85% of live and
dead trees, with consistently high validation statistics across sites and between drought events. This
represents a major improvement over models calibrated using growth metrics alone, and points to the
importance of understanding allocation to defense in refining our understanding of tree mortality
during drought.
Poster
GLACIER NATIONAL PARK GLORIA SITES IN A REGIONAL CONTEXT
Malanson, George P. (1), Fagre, Daniel B. (2)
(1) Dept of Geography, University of Iowa, Iowa City, IA, (2) USGS Northern Rocky Mountain Science
Center, Glacier National Park, West Glacier, MT
What is the meaning of 5 years of change in the identity and abundance of plant species in GLORIA
monitoring sites? The amount of change in the GLORIA sites in Glacier National Park, MT, is
examined. We compare the compositional similarity and the ordination scores based on this
similarity, using nonmetric multidimensional scaling, when we use the GLORIA samples from 2004/5
and 2010 alone, with an additional 525 sites in GNP, and with 36 of those other sites plus 376 more
sites from across the West ranging from Mexico to central Alberta. Although the similarity of sites
changes significantly over ~5 years, the variability in alpine vegetation within GNP and across the
West is so much greater that the temporal changes appear small in spatial context. Alpine vegetation
would seem to be resilient based on its diversity, but its heterogeneity may represent narrow niches
closely constrained by climate.
30
Poster
SHOULD I STAY OR SHOULD I GO? STAGNANT AND ADVANCING TREELINES IN ALPINE
AND SUBARCTIC LOCALITIES
Mamet, Steven D. (1) and Kershaw, G. Peter (2)
(1) Department of Biology, University of Saskatchewan, Saskatoon, SK,(2) Department of Earth and
Atmospheric Sciences, University of Alberta, Edmonton
The prevailing theory regarding circumboreal treeline formation is that temperature during the growing
season limits tree growth. However, site-level characteristics become increasingly important as
treeline heterogeneity increases from global to smaller scales. As part of an International Polar Year
project, several levels of mechanisms limiting treeline at the site-scale were studied at two locales in
Canada: the alpine treeline (AT) of the western Mackenzie Mountains, NWT, and latitudinal treeline
(LT) around Churchill, MB. LT around Churchill consisted of diffuse patterns of decreasing tree
density from forest to tundra, while tree islands dominated at the AT. The mechanisms studied, in
order of magnitude of hypothesized effect, included: tree performance, stress, and neighbor effects
(competition/facilitation). Stand infilling and treeline advance has occurred at both locales during
previous warm periods. While the LT at Churchill continues to advance during the early 21st century,
the AT has become stagnant and tree islands only persist through layering. Temperature appears to
be the primary forcing of historical treeline advance, though population dynamics at the AT have
decoupled from temperature in recent decades. Stressors that can affect tree performance, such as
wind blown snow abrasion, or adverse neighbor effects such as competition, are not likely to
significantly alter population dynamics at treeline around the sites studied here. Most remarkably,
larch around Churchill has increased dramatically in terms of growth and reproduction—a
phenomenon observed prominently around the circumboreal treeline. This study suggests that in the
absence of increased natural or anthropogenic disturbances and/or moisture stress, treeline shall
continue to advance around Churchill, potentially with a change from spruce to larch-dominated
communities. Despite significantly increased growth rates during the last several decades, no true
seedlings have been found within the western Mackenzie Mountains since at least 2006, and
reproduction has been exclusively asexual. The disparity in response between the LT and AT studied
here, highlights the need for consideration, not just of climate, but of treeline form (i.e., diffuse versus
tree island) and autecology in treeline dynamics.
Talk
SHIFTS IN DISTRIBUTIONS OF WESTERN US STREAMFLOW AND CLIMATE INDICES
BETWEEN 1912 AND 2010
Matter, Margaret (1), Luce, Charlie (2), and Tarboton, David
(1) Utah Water Research Laboratory, Utah State University; Logan, UT, (2) US Forest Service; Air,
Water, and Aquatic Environments Program; Boise, ID, (3) Department of Civil and Environmental
Engineering, Utah State University; Logan, UT
Understanding variability and change in streamflow distributions and climate conditions and the
relationships between them are fundamental to improving projections of and managing water
supplies. We applied quantile regression to timeseries of relatively unimpaired streamflows and major
climate indices for the Western United States to investigate changes in distributions of flow and
climate indices between 1912 and 2010. Significant (p ≤ 0.05) changes in annual streamflow
occurred at 57% of the gages. High annual flows increased at gages along the West Coast and in the
Great Basin, while low annual flows decreased at gages in the northern Colorado Plateau. No
significant changes occurred in median annual flows. During the same time period, Darwin sea level
pressures and their year-to-year differences, our El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) indicators, also
changed significantly. Darwin sea level pressure, together with the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation
(AMO) and Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), explained most of the variance in annual streamflow.
Trends we detected in Darwin sea level pressure indicators were consistent with abrupt changes in
ENSO following the 1976/1977 Pacific climate regime shift. The changes in Pacific sea surface
temperatures since 1977 have also been linked to increased precipitation in the U.S. during the 20th
Century. This may suggest connections between shifts in Western US streamflow distributions and
31
changes in Pacific mean climate state since 1977. By identifying shifts in streamflow distributions in
the Western US between 1912 and 2010, their regional variations, and associations with changes in
climate indices, we furthered understanding about types and sources of nonstationarities in
streamflow during that time period, which has important implications for managing water and other
aquatic and terrestrial resources.
Poster
RECENT RESPONSE OF THE GLOBAL WATER BALANCE TO WARMING
McCabe, Gregory J. (1), and Wolock, David M. (2)
(1) U.S. Geological Survey, Denver, Colorado, (2) U.S. Geological Survey, Lawrence, Kansas
An analysis of simulated global water-balance components (precipitation [P], actual
evapotranspiration [AET], runoff [Q], and potential evapotranspiration [PET]) (on a 0.5 degree by 0.5
degree grid) for the past century (1905 through 2009) indicates that P has been the primary driver of
variability in Q. Additionally, since about 2000, there have been increases in P, AET, Q, and PET for
most of the globe. The increases in Q during the most recent decade have occurred despite
unprecedented increases in PET. The increases in Q are the result of substantial increases in P
during the cool Northern Hemisphere months (i.e. October through March) when PET increases were
relatively small; the largest PET increases occurred during the warm Northern Hemisphere months
(April through September). Changes in water-balance variables appear large from the perspective of
departures from the long-term means. When put into the context of the magnitudes of the raw water
balance variable values, however, there appears to have been little change in any of the waterbalance variables over the past century on regional and global averaged scales.
Talk
INTRODUCING NEVCAN: THE NEVADA CLIMATE-ECOHYDROLOGICAL ASSESSMENT
NETWORK OF REAL-TIME VERY HIGH RESOLUTION ENVIRONMENTAL DATA IN THE GREAT
BASIN
Mensing, Scott (1), Strachan, Scotty (1), Biondi, Franco (1), Devitt, Dale (3), Fenstermaker, Lynn (2),
Arnone, Jay (2), Saito, Laurel (1), Bird, Brian (3), Lyles, Brad (2), McCurdy, Greg (2), Lancaster,
Nicholas (2), and Piechota, Thomas (3)
(1) University of Nevada, Reno, NV, (2) Desert Research Institute, Reno, NV, (3) University of
Nevada, Las Vegas, NV
Long term environmental monitoring in the Great Basin region has been historically sparse.
Knowledge of landscape processes and ecosystem functions across the diverse topography of the
Basin and Range province is generally limited to individual studies and these data are neither
consolidated nor uniform in methods and location. The three major institutions concerned with higher
education and research in Nevada (UNR, UNLV, DRI) have established a network of long-term
environmental monitoring sites covering the primary ecological life zones in two central Great Basin
mountain ranges: NevCAN (for Nevada Climate-ecohydrological Assessment Network). These sites
are equipped to establish a baseline of meteorological, hydrological, and ecological data and begin to
achieve the goal of quantifying linkages between climate variability and ecosystem processes that
modulate water availability. NevCAN thus seeks to expanded research services and focused
experimental science. Real-time, high-speed networking ties all sites together and links all systems to
the NevCAN Cyberinfrastructure. The Snake Range transect in eastern Nevada, has eight stations
that form valley-mountain-valley transects from 1885 m (6000 ft) up to 3460 m (11,000 ft) elevation.
Salt Desert, Sagebrush, Pinyon-Juniper, Montane, and Subalpine life zones are represented. The
Sheep Range transect in southern Nevada, and 300 km south of the Snake Range transect,, has five
stations that begins in the Creosote Bush and move through the Blackbrush, Pinyon-Cliffrose,
Montane, and Subalpine communities. One year of baseline data from these stations are presented,
demonstrating the value of concurrent observations across the elevational gradients and the
functionality of the systems. The NevCAN team encourages collaboration during this early stage to
enhance the science deliverables and sustainability of these geographically unique study areas.
32
Poster
ELEVATION DEPENDENT WARMING: WHERE, WHEN, AND WHY
Miller, James (1), Rangwala, Imtiaz (1), Naud, Catherine (2), and Chen, Yonghua (2)
(1) Rutgers University, New Brunswick, NJ, (2) Columbia University, New York, NY
In some high elevation regions there is evidence that temperatures are warming faster than the global
average, and the warming appears to be elevation dependent in some cases. Among the factors that
can contribute to this enhanced warming are clouds, atmospheric water vapor, snow cover, aerosols,
and the land surface. One of the difficulties in trying to quantify the relationships and feedbacks
among climate variables is that observations are often sparse or non-existent in these complex
topographic regions. Another difficulty is that the enhanced warming is usually occurring in response
to more than one climate variable, and furthermore, these variables are often correlated with each
other. We provide several examples of enhanced high-elevation warming in different regions, discuss
seasonal and inter-decadal variability, and suggest mechanisms that might be responsible for the
temperature enhancements. We also demonstrate that a neural net scheme can be used to quantify
sensitivities between pairs of climate variables (e.g., the relationship between surface downward
longwave radiation and atmospheric water vapor) and that satellite retrievals can help to expand the
observational database.
Talk
RESPONDING TO CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS IN THE SKY ISLAND REGION: FROM
PLANNING TO ACTION
Misztal, Louise (1), Garfin, G. (2), and Hansen, L. (3)
(1) Sky Island Alliance, Tucson, AZ, (2) School of Natural Resources and the Environment, University
of Arizona, Tucson, AZ, (3) EcoAdapt, Bainbridge Island, WA
Addressing the growing impacts of climate change on natural resources requires multiple
organizations, agencies, and institutions working cooperatively to incorporate climate change into
resource management. In the Sky Island region of the southwestern United States and northern
Mexico, Sky Island Alliance, a non-governmental organization, is leading the convening of a series of
climate change adaptation workshops in cooperation with a variety of agencies and organizations.
This talk demonstrates a process and methodology for convening federal and state agencies, local
governments, non-profit organizations, tribal representatives, private landowners, and academic
researchers in order to develop, on-the-ground and policy-level actions through climate change
adaptation planning. Key outcomes of the workshops include: identification of climate change threats
to and vulnerabilities of Madrean Forest, Riparian, Desert and Grassland ecosystems in the Sky
Island region; analysis of direct and indirect climate change threats and interacting factors; a list of
ecosystem specific adaptation options for the region, a plan for implementation of one adaptation
strategy and development of a regional network of professionals working cooperatively to improve
natural resource management under changing conditions. This talk highlights implementation of a
cross-jurisdictional adaptation strategy to inventory, assess, and prioritize spring resources in the Sky
Island region. Project components include creation of an online database accessible to all managers
in the region, development of new information on springs in areas of high interest to managers,
engagement of volunteers in spring assessment protocol training and data collection and
management planning for springs in the context of climate change. This talk demonstrates one
approach for addressing the management and conservation challenges posed by climate change
through collaborative engagement at a regional scale.
33
Invited Talk
SUPERENSEMBLE REGIONAL CLIMATE MODELING FOR THE WESTERN US: A NEW WAY OF
SEEING MOUNTAIN CLIMATES
Mote, Philip W (1), Rupp, David (1), Novak, Kayla (2), Jones, Richard (3), and Allen, Myles (4)
(1) Oregon Climate Change Research Institute, Oregon State University, Corvallis OR, (2) San Jose
State University, (3) UK Met Office Hadley Centre, (4) Oxford University
For over a decade, a citizen science experiment called climateprediction.net organized by Oxford
University has used computer time contributed by over 80,000 volunteers around the world to create
superensembles of global climate simulations. A new climateprediction.net experiment built by
Oxford University, the UK Meteorological Office, UW, and OSU, and released in late 2011, brings
these computing resources to bear on regional climate modeling for the Western US. With a spatial
resolution of 25km, this modeling framework permits important topographical features -- mountain
ranges and valleys -- to be resolved and to influence simulated climate, which consequently includes
many important observed features of climate. More unusually, the large ensemble size (>160,000
members as of July 2012) permits novel approaches to quantifying uncertainty. Simulations using
observed sea surface temperatures (SSTs) over the 1960-2010 period compare favorably with
observations; perturbing initial conditions and physics parameter values provides estimates of
uncertainty and a measure of the importance of model formulation to regional climate, and the
thousands of simulations (both 20th and 21st century) offer a new approach to envisioning future
regional climate both for means and for significant types of extremes.
Poster
PHYSIOLOGICAL STRESSES OF LIMBER PINE SEEDLINGS AT AND ABOVE TREELINE
IMMEDIATELY FOLLOWING NATURAL AND EXPERIMENTALLY ADVANCED SNOWMELT
Moyes, Andrew B. (1), Germino, Matthew J. (2), and Kueppers, Lara M. (1, 3)
(1) University of California, Merced, CA, (2) US Geological Survey, Boise, ID, (3) Lawrence Berkeley
National Laboratory, Berkeley, CA
Treeline positions are anticipated to shift uphill in response to climate warming, a prediction which
depends on future seedling recruitment at and above the current distribution limits of subalpine trees.
To examine the role of cold temperature in seedling establishment at treeline, we measured
physiological performance of limber pine seedlings after surviving their first winter in heated and
ambient temperature plots within the Alpine Treeline Warming Experiment. Fluorometric
measurements of maximum photosystem II efficiency (Fv/Fm) indicated severe photoinhibition 10 days
following melt (Fv/Fm near 0), but photoinhibition diminished over the subsequent 10 days. Over the
same period, seedlings showed highly variable degrees of moisture stress in midday stem water
potentials (Ψ) associated with frost drought and freeze-thaw embolism, despite consistently abundant
afternoon soil moisture. Many seedlings would not exude water under maximum measurement
pressure (Ψ < -5 MPa) across all sampling dates (up to 60 days following melt), indicating high spatial
variability in cold-associated moisture stress, and possibly limited xylem conduit refilling. Net CO2
assimilation appeared to be independently limited by photoinhibition and moisture stress. Although
these stresses were not significantly impacted by the timing of snowmelt or whether seeds were
sourced from high or low elevation provenances, the observation of severe cold stress indicates that
seedling establishment above treeline will be sensitive to future patterns of snowmelt and air
temperature.
34
Poster
COMBINING GEOSPATIAL VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT AND SCENARIO PLANNING FOR
CLIMATE ADAPTATION: A FIRE MANAGEMENT EXAMPLE
Nydick, Koren R. (1), Schwartz, M. (2), Moritz, Max (3), and Sydoriak, Charisse (1)
(1) USDOI National Park Service, Sequoia & Kings Canyon National Parks, Three Rivers, CA, (2)
University of California at Davis, Department of Environmental Science & Policy, Davis, CA,(3)
University of California at Berkeley, Department of Environmental Science, Policy & Management,
Berkeley, CA
Scientists and land managers in the Southern Sierra Nevada are working together to re-evaluate fire
management in a changing climate. Fire is a potent resource management tool and potential stressor
because of its strong linkage to climate and direct and indirect effects on the environment and people.
We set out to develop knowledge, process, and tools to describe the future in a useful way for
planning, to identify what resources are vulnerable and where, and to help us prioritize management
strategies across the landscape. The novel process involves three tools: (1) a geospatial vulnerability
assessment that uses downscaled GCM output and analyzes vegetation stress related to climate and
fire; (2) scenario-based planning that considers multiple futures, incorporates both ecological and
socio-political uncertainties, and lets us think “outside the box” where models currently cannot go; and
(3) an interactive planning exercise that integrates the two – “Making it Real” and giving us practice in
adaptation planning. The combined ecological/socio-political scenarios have names like “Ecosystem
Management”, “Water Wars Ignite”, and “Mega Fire Looms”. The integrative process has proven
powerful to combine disparate information and actively engage participants in new ways of thinking
while making the results relevant to on-the-ground management.
Poster
COMPLEX MOUNTAIN LANDSCAPES RCN-SEES: ADVANCING OUR SOCIAL AND
ENVIRONMENTAL UNDERSTANDING OF COMPLEX MOUNTAIN LANDSCAPES AND THEIR
VULNERABILITY TO ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE
Pinel, Sandra (1), Gosz, Jim (1) Norton Todd (2); Stanford, Jack (3); and Crabtree, Robert (3)
(1) University of Idaho, Moscow, ID, (2) Washington State University, Pullman, WA, (3) University of
Montana, Missoula, MT Mountain-valley environments are complex landscapes characterized by steep biophysical gradients
with many areas experiencing profound socioeconomic transitions (i.e. population growth, land-use
change). Human-environment relationships in these landscapes vary from emerging amenity
orientations associated with demographic changes to communities with lasting legacies in extractive
natural resource enterprises. Sustainability and resilience of these landscapes remains uncertain and
is a function of the ability of the systems to respond to change under shifting social, cultural,
ecological, and economic forces. The Complex Mountain Landscapes RCN will address the
overarching question: How can we reduce the vulnerability of natural and human systems in
complex mountain landscapes through research partnerships? The RCN will develop effective
ways to organize and coordinate research and education that will improve the science needed to
inform policy and management decisions. This will be accomplished by the initiation of
multidisciplinary, integrated efforts among academic, governmental, and tribal institutions and entities.
Existing information systems will be coupled with new tools and technologies to address questions of
strategic regional, national and international importance. The initial effort will capitalize on a wellstudied region in the Northern Rockies of the US and Canada, which includes a rich mix of landscape
conditions from Wilderness to rapidly developing urban areas. It will serve as a model as we expand
the research to other complex mountain landscapes. Large amounts of data already exist but better
integration is needed across various disciplines, including modeling and synthesis efforts which deal
efficiently with the complexity of coupled natural and human systems and effectively inform policy and
decision makers. This project will stress collaboration and integration of socio-economic and
biophysical sciences across multiple universities, federal, tribal, and state agencies, building upon
and expanding existing partnerships to improve social and ecological resilience and sustainability.
35
Invited Talk
LATE QUATERNARY CLIMATE VARIABILITY IN THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST OF THE UNITED
STATES: EVIDENCE FROM SUB-FOSSIL MIDGE ANALYSIS
Porinchu, David F. (1), Reinemann, S. A. (2), and Haskett, D. (1)
(1) University of Georgia, Department of Geography, Athens GA, (2) The Ohio State University,
Department of Geography, Columbus OH
The geochemical, physical and biotic characteristics of lake sediments have successfully been used
to provide valuable reconstructions of recent and long-term climate and environmental change in the
Intermountain West of the United States. Increasing the number of lengthy, high-resolution,
quantitative records describing the response of the Intermountain West to late Quaternary climate
perturbations will improve our understanding of past climate variability and may provide insight into
future regional conditions. I will review the contribution of sub-fossil midges to our understanding of
late Quaternary climate change in this region and survey recent advances and on-going research
pertaining to sub-fossil midge analysis. Specifically, I will discuss: 1) the expansion of the existing
Great Basin midge calibration set to incorporate lakes from central Colorado and the development of
associated midge-based surface water temperature and air temperature inference models; 2)
evidence for elevated mean July temperature during the Medieval Climate Anomaly, making
reference to a high-resolution (multi-decadal) chironomid-based reconstruction from the central Great
Basin; 3) the differential response of midge communities in low, mid- and high elevation lakes in the
eastern Sierra Nevada to post-glacial climate amelioration during the Pleistocene-Holocene transition;
and 4) the role of sub-fossil midge analysis in the on-going Snow mastodon project.
Poster
EFFECTS OF PRECIPITATION CHANGE ON POPULATION DYNAMICS OF BROMUS
TECTORUM
Prevéy, Janet S., Seastedt, Timothy R.
University of Colorado, Boulder, CO
Shifts in precipitation patterns resulting from global climate change are expected to affect composition
and ecosystem function of plant communities. In the Front Range of Colorado, Bromus tectorum
(cheatgrass) and other non-native winter annuals are invading native grasslands. As the climate
warms, yearly precipitation may shift to a more winter-wet pattern, and this shift may benefit earlygrowing winter annuals, such as cheatgrass, to the detriment of native species. For this study, we
measured responses of cheatgrass to simulated changes in precipitation patterns in a grassland near
Boulder, Colorado. In 2010, three precipitation treatments were created based on climate model
predictions for Colorado: winter-wet, winter-wet/summer-wet, and winter-wet/summer dry. In addition,
a winter-dry/summer-wet treatment was added to simulate historical conditions. Cheatgrass was
hypothesized to have greater survival, growth, and seed production in treatments receiving
supplemental winter precipitation, and lower survival and seed production in the control and winterdry treatment. In 2011 and 2012, cover, survival, fecundity, and biomass of cheatgrass were
measured in the different treatments. In 2012, demographic data were used to estimate population
growth rates of cheatgrass in the different treatments.
In spring 2011, cheatgrass was more abundant in winter-wet treatments than in the control or winterdry treatment. However, biomass and seed production of cheatgrass did not differ between
treatments (p > 0.05). In 2012, cover, biomass, and seed production were greater in winter-wet
treatments than in the control or winter-dry treatment (p < 0.05). Population growth rates were
highest for cheatgrass growing in the winter-wet treatment, and negative (indicating population
decline) in the summer-wet/ winter-dry treatment. Contrasting results in 2011 and 2012 can be
partially explained by different patterns of ambient precipitation in winter and spring. These
preliminary results demonstrate the sensitivity of cheatgrass populations to precipitation timing, and
indicate that cheatgrass may become more invasive in grasslands along the Front Range as the
climate changes.
36
Poster
AMPLIFIED WATER VAPOR FEEDBACK AT HIGH ELEVATIONS DURING WINTER
Rangwala, Imtiaz (1,2), Miller, James R. (1), and Barsugli, Joseph (2)
(1) Dept. of Marine and Coastal Sciences, Rutgers University, (2) Physical Sciences Division, NOAAESRL
In recent decades, several high altitude regions around the globe have experienced large warming
trends during winter which are often higher relative to the trends in other seasons. Increases in the
atmospheric water vapor and its role in amplifying the surface longwave heating in these regions
have been suggested to be partially responsible for this enhanced wintertime warming. Results from
a radiative transfer model demonstrate that, during winter, much greater increases in downward
longwave radiation occur in high altitude regions, relative to low altitude regions, for similar increases
in the lower atmospheric water vapor. This occurs because downward longwave radiation is very
sensitive to atmospheric water vapor at high elevations, owing to a greater degree of optical undersaturation in the longwave absorption at these altitudes. Also discussed are observational
relationships between downward longwave radiation and humidity at high elevation sites (>11,000 ft)
in the Colorado Rocky Mountains. These relationships show the existence of large sensitivities
between the two variables during winter at these elevations.
Invited Talk
WESTERN CLIMATE 2011-2012 IN PERSPECTIVE
Redmond, Kelly T.
Western Regional Climate Center, Desert Research Institute, Reno NV
The period covered here is from the last PACLIM Workshop in March 2011 until MTNCLIM 2012.
The winter of 2010-11 extended through all of spring and into early climatological summer.
Snowpack in some locations reached its maximum extent or depth into June, especially in the Sierra
Nevada and in the Colorado River headwaters. Record volume and lateness of runoff were
experienced in Utah and Colorado. In Arizona and New Mexico severe drought continued from winter
and intensified.
Spring was warm except for a cool strip along the coast. Summer precipitation was lighter than usual
including the monsoon region. Summer was cool in the Pacific Northwest and California, shading to
extremely warm in eastern New Mexico. The entire region was deficient in precipitation during
autumn, with temperatures near to somewhat above average. Winter continued the extreme dryness,
a major turnaround from a year earlier, with warm conditions mostly confined to Montana and part of
Wyoming. Except for a narrow coastal strip, spring was dry and very warm nearly everywhere else.
The Colorado River fell from one of its highest runoff years in history to one of the lowest in 2012. La
Nina was present during winter 2010-11 but gave way to weak El Nino conditions as of mid-July.
Globally 2011 was cool at the start and end, and warm during boreal summer, warming into boreal
summer of 2012. Arctic sea ice extent was low during winter and remained on a near minimum pace
into mid-summer. The fire season was active in 2011 with 8.7 million acres of wildland fire. Fire
potential in 2012 was at August levels by April in the Great Basin. The year 2012 brought extremely
large fires to New Mexico and Oregon, and very destructive fires to Colorado, though the year lagged
or just barely exceeded long term averages for acreage by mid-summer, perhaps indicative of lack of
very large grass fires until July 2012. Other phenomena of interest were noted and will be discussed.
37
Poster
A VULNERABILTY ASSESSMENT TOOL FOR ADAPTING YELLOWSTONE CUTTHROAT
TROUT TO CLIMATE CHANGE ON THE SHOSHONE NATIONAL FOREST, WYOMING
Rice, Janine M. (1), Joyce, Linda A. (2), Baggett, L. Scott (2), Zubik, Ray (3), Armel, Bryan (3), Cary,
Karri L. (3), and Bevenger, Greg (4)
(1) University of Colorado, Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Science, Western
Water Assessment, Rocky Mountain Research Station, Fort Collins, CO,(2) USDA, Forest Service,
Rocky Mountain Research Station, Fort Collins, CO,(3) USDA, Forest Service, Shoshone National
Forest, Cody, WY, (4) USDA, Forest Service, Intermountain Region, Ogden, UT
Ecosystems of the central Rocky Mountains are likely to experience a 1.7 °C (3 °F) temperature
increase by 2050. The native cold-water salmonid, Yellowstone cutthroat trout (Oncorhynchus clarkii
bouvieri), occupying many of these mountain streams have experienced a region-wide population
distribution reduction to 42% of its historical range. In addition, this salmonid is expected to be
sensitive to future changes in climate. To help meet information needs for management and
conservation efforts, a customized vulnerability assessment tool for Yellowstone cutthroat trout on the
Shoshone National Forest was developed. Indicators relevant to the salmonid for climate change
exposure effects as well as inherent landscape, anthropogenic, and ecologic factors are used to
derive vulnerability scores at the stream segment scale. Results showed an overall medium
vulnerability with some improving conditions but spatially complex patterns over time. Improvements
of conditions tended to occur at higher elevation mountain streams where stream temperatures
warmed and opened up thermally suitable habitat. Degradation of conditions tended to occur at lower
elevations where rain became more prevalent in runoff. Under climate decadal extremes, the majority
of streams showed similar trends of vulnerability, however hotter conditions produced the highest
vulnerability overall. The vulnerability assessment tool provided Forest Service resource managers
information to help guide conservation project planning and identify locations for monitoring that
capture the range of potential vulnerability conditions. The Shoshone National Forest hosts an
important and dynamic salmonid habitat with its high elevation stream networks, lakes and ponds,
and this vulnerability assessment tool pointed out that these stream habitats may serve as future
refugia for Yellowstone cutthroat trout populations.
Invited Talk
ROLE OF HUMAN INTERVENTION IN CLIMATE ADAPTATION
Running, Steve
College of Forestry and Conservation, University of Montana, Missoula, MT
Invited Talk
DISTURBANCE REGIMES AND DISTURBANCE WINDOWS: CONTEMPORARY POST-FIRE
PHENOLOGY IN THE BASIN AND RANGE, USA
Sankey, Joel
U.S. Geological Survey, Flagstaff, AZ
Wildland fire frequency, size, and season length have increased in many parts of the world in recent
decades. Fire can accelerate land degradation processes such as erosion due to combustion of
vegetation that stabilizes the soil surface. I present a novel indicator, based on remote sensing of
vegetation greenness dynamics (phenology), that measures temporal variability between fire and the
reemergence of green vegetation. The indicator was applied as a proxy for short-term, post-fire
disturbance windows in shrubland ecosystems of the Great Basin and Columbia Plateau of the
western USA; where a disturbance window is defined as the time required for an ecological or
geomorphic process that is altered to return to pre-disturbance levels. The indicator was determined
using time series data from MODIS and AVHRR NDVI and publically available large fire databases to
examine variability in disturbance windows for historical wildland fires that burned during the past two
decades. The historical fires included replicated post-fire reseeding treatments. Disturbance windows
were examined relative to the day of the year that fires burned and seeding treatments to consider
38
effects of contemporary variability in fire regime and management activities. Early season fires
appeared to result in longer time that soils remained relatively bare of the protective cover of
vegetation after fires, indicating that contemporary changes of increased length of the annual fire
season could have indirect effects on land degradation. Also noteworthy was that reemergence of
vegetation did not occur more quickly after fire in sites treated with post-fire seeding, which is a
strategy commonly employed to accelerate vegetation recovery. Future work with the indicator could
examine the magnitude of common post-disturbance processes such as erosion, soil hydrologic
response, or carbon cycling, as a function of disturbance windows, possibly using simulation
modeling and historical wildfire information.
Invited Talk DEVELOPING CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION STRATEGIES FOR MOUNTAIN COMMUNITIES
IN THE COLUMBIA BASIN
Schreier, Hans
Faculty of Land & Food Systems, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, B.C., Canada
A comprehensive climate change adaptation program is under way in the Canadian portion of the
Columbia Basin and so far seven communities and several regional districts have adapted strategies
to reduce the risk of climate change impacts. During community consultation processes it because
apparent that water issues, fire risk and food security where of greatest concerns. Investigations
showed that the domestic water use in the participating communities is exceptionally high, the water
supplies are highly uncertain, and flooding is a continuing and reoccurring issues. As part of the
adaptation strategy, all communities committed themselves to a 30% reducing in domestic water use
over the next 3 years. Water supplies are to be reassessed and diversified, and innovative methods
are to be used to reduce the amount of water and contaminants originating from conventional
stormwater management systems. Surprisingly, food security was identified as a major issue
particularly in the Okanagan sub-basin which represent the driest areas in Canada and has a
relatively favourable climate for fruit production. Water balance modelling showed that the largest
amount of water use in the Okanagan is for agriculture, and forage crops use the largest amount of
irrigation water. Modelling water use for all crops showed that grapes are the most efficient water
users and also have the highest value, with forage crops being among the largest water users with
the lowest value. Comparing the water use for food production during a dry year (2003) and a wet
year (1998) showed an average of 33% difference and serves as a good indicator of emerging water
problems as climate warming proceeds. The research has shown that a good adaptive strategy for
food production is to focus on growing water efficient crops with higher values and reducing the virtual
water trade. Each community has initiated a different climate change adaptation strategy and this
provides an excellent learning opportunity for the remaining 15 community in the Columbia Basin.
The plan is to have most of the remaining communities involved in some measures of climate change
adapting and the lessons learned from this original consultation process if proving to be very useful.
Invited Talk
RECONSTRUCTING ALPINE SNOWPACKS USING DIATOM INFERENCE MODELS AND LONGTERM RECORDS OF LAKE HYDROCHEMISTRY
Sickman, Jim
Dept of Environmental Sciences, University of California, Riverside, CA
Understanding of the underlying causes of interannual and long-term variation in Pacific mountain
snowpack is hampered by short instrumental records and the difficulties in reconstructing past
snowpack dynamics using tree rings. We propose that diatom-based reconstructions of acid
neutralizing capacity (ANC) in mountain lakes can be used with lake-specific relationships between
ANC and snow water equivalence (SWE) to reconstruct snowpack variability from diatoms preserved
in lake sediments. Our 30-year investigation of the Emerald Lake watershed in the Sierra Nevada has
revealed tight coupling between lake chemistry and snowpack dynamics. The ANC of lake water
during the early autumn is negatively correlated with the SWE of the antecedent spring snowpack (R2
39
= 0.85). This inverse relationship is explained by the dilution and titration of alkalinity generated from
basin weathering by acidic snowmelt water. In years with large antecedent snowpacks, summer and
autumn lake-ANC is depressed more deeply and for longer duration compared to years with
shallower snowpack. We used the ANC:SWE relationship for Emerald Lake along with a 185-year
record of diatom-reconstructed ANC to reconstruct Emerald Lake SWE from 1825 through 2010. This
SWE reconstruction was highly correlated with discharge in the Sacramento River indicating that
snowpack variability at Emerald Lake captured a large proportion of the temporal variability in
snowpack and river runoff for the entire Sierra Nevada. Using this new paleo proxy, we can
potentially reconstruct snowpack water content and river runoff for the Sierra Nevada and southern
Cascades over millennial time-scales.
Poster
NEAR-SURFACE AIR TEMPERATURE PATTERNS IN COMPLEX TERRAIN, SAN FRANCISCO
PEAKS, ARIZONA
Simeral, David, B., (1) (2) (3) and Albright, Thomas, P., (2)
(1) Desert Research Institute, Division of Atmospheric Sciences, Reno, NV, (2) University of Nevada,
Reno, Department of Geography, Reno, NV, (3) Western Regional Climate Center, Reno, NV
Near-surface temperature is an important parameter for modeling local climate regimes and
understanding a variety of biological, ecological, and hydrologic processes. Temperatures are often
driven by finer-scale conditions where site-specific data are normally not available. In such cases,
climate mapping applications, such as Parameter–Elevation Regressions on Independent Slopes
Model (PRISM), are commonly used. However, these applications may not always resolve air
temperature fields and associated lapse rates on a scale necessary to understand biological and
ecological processes in mountainous terrain. Our goal was to measure temperature variation on an
isolated mountain in order to infer the roles of elevation, slope, aspect, time period, and synoptic
variability on observed patterns and lapse rates on various temporal scales. To that end, we
established an altitudinal gradient network of micrologger sensors spanning the cardinal directions of
the San Francisco Peaks (35.35°N, -111.68°; 3851m), the highest mountain in Arizona. The
observational network consisted of four evenly-spaced transects (200 m interval) consisting of six
sites spanning in elevation from 2500 m to 3500 m above mean sea level and covering an
approximate area of 325 km2. We also sought to compare our measurements to the PRISM 800 m
dataset for the contemporaneous period and to free-atmosphere measurements from the National
Weather Service radiosonde station (FGZ) situated ~12 km to the southwest. Observed monthly
mean lapse rates ranged from 4.4° to 10.3°C/km-1 for 2010-12. Seasonally, observed lapse rates
were steepest during JJA while shallowest during DJF with strong variation according to both spatial
and temporal factors. Results from the network observations versus PRISM displayed an overall,
cold bias by PRISM for monthly TMIN values.
Poster
DIATOM RECORD OF HOLOCENE LAKE LEVEL AND MOISTURE VARIABILITY IN THE
NORTHERN RUBY MOUNTAINS, NEVADA
Starratt, Scott W.
U.S. Geological Survey, 345 Middlefield Road, Menlo Park, CA 94025
The north-central Great Basin is affected by bimodal precipitation sources, dominated by winter
(November-February) precipitation from the eastern Pacific Ocean augmented by late spring (MayJune) convectional precipitation. Reconstruction of past moisture variability has proven difficult due to
the limited paleoclimate records and the effect of lake (depth, bathymetric profile) and local watershed
(elevation, aspect, bedrock geology) characteristics. Surface sediment was collected from tarns in the
northern Ruby Mountains (Lamoille Lake, 2976 masl, 5.5 ha; Upper Dollar Lake, 2942 masl, ~1 ha, 2
m deep; Lower Dollar Lake, 2937masl, ~1 ha, 2 m deep; Liberty Lake, 3064masl, 8.5 ha, 33 m deep;
Castle Lake, 2980 masl, 5.7 ha, 4.6 m deep; Favre Lake, 2902 masl, 7.7 ha, 12.0 m deep), and East
Humboldt Range (Angel Lake, 2553 masl, 5.2 ha, 9 m deep). The bedrock underlying all the
40
watersheds is early Paleozoic marble and Mesozoic granite and metamorphic rocks. A series of cores
were collected in Favre Lake using a modified Livingstone piston corer. The presence of the Mazama
ash in the basal sediment (~4 m below the sediment/water interface) indicates the record extends to
~7,700 cal yr B.P. Between about 7,700 and 6,000 cal yr B.P. the diatom flora is dominated by a
diverse assemblage of benthic species. The remainder of the core is dominated by Fragilaria,
suggesting that lake level rose and flooded the shelf that surrounds the depocenter of the lake. The
upper part of the Favre Lake record contains an increase in the abundance of Cyclotella, suggesting
an increase in the amount of water entering the lake from Liberty Lake, where Cyclotella is a
significant part of the flora.
Poster
ASSESSING ACCURACY OF A PROBABILISTIC MODEL FOR VERY LARGE FIRE IN THE
ROCKY MOUNTAINS: A HIGH PARK FIRE CASE STUDY
Stavros, E. Natasha (1), Abatzoglou, John (2), Larkin, Sim (3), McKenzie, Don (3), Steel, E. Ashley
(3)
(1) University of Washington, School of Environmental and Forest Sciences, Seattle, WA, (2)
University of Idaho, Department of Geography, Moscow, ID, (3) Pacific Wildland Fire Sciences Lab,
Forest Service, Seattle, WA
Across the western United States, the largest wildfires account for a major proportion of the area
burned and substantially affect mountain forests and their associated ecosystem services, among
which is pristine air quality. These fires commandeer national attention and significant fire
suppression resources. Despite efforts to understand the influence of fuel loading, climate, and
weather on annual area burned, few studies have focused on understanding what abiotic factors
enable and drive the very largest wildfires. We investigated the correlation between both antecedent
climate and in-situ biophysical variables and very large (>20,000 ha) fires in the western United
States from 1984 to 2009. We built logistic regression models, at the spatial scale of the national
Geographic Area Coordination Centers (GACCs), to estimate the probability that a given day is
conducive to a very large wildfire. Models vary in accuracy and in which variables are the best
predictors. In a case study of the conditions of the High Park Fire, neighboring Fort Collins, Colorado,
occurring in early summer 2012, we evaluate the predictive accuracy of the model for the Rocky
Mountain GACC.
Talk
DECLINING WATER QUALITY IN SIERRA NEVADA MOUNTAIN STREAMS UNDER
PROJECTED CLIMATIC CHANGES
Stewart, Iris T. (1), Ficklin, Darren L. (1), and Maurer, Edwin P. (2)
(1) Santa Clara University, Department of Environmental Studies and Sciences, Santa Clara, CA, (2)
Santa Clara University, Department of Civil Engineering, Santa Clara, CA
Expected climatic changes by 2100 in the Sierra Nevada include warmer surface air temperatures
and overall precipitation declines. We seek to understand how these climatic changes might drive
changes in water quality, namely stream temperature, dissolved oxygen (DO) concentration, and
sediment concentration in connection with hydrologic changes for a water-limited, snowmeltdominated mountain stream system, such as the California Sierra Nevada. Output from an ensemble
of General Circulation Model (GCM) projections were used for two emission scenarios to drive the
Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT), with a new integrated stream temperature model. Results
indicate that stream temperatures during the Spring and Summer seasons are likely to increase by
several degrees throughout the Sierra Nevada, accompanied by declines of DO and sediment
concentrations. Some of the low-elevation subbasins of the southern Sierra Nevada, could reach
average monthly stream temperatures of 25 - 30 ºC during Summer. The projected decreases in
water quality are largely correlated with changes in hydrology and suggest substantial ecological
consequences for these mountain stream ecosystems.
41
Poster
CRITICAL INFRASTRUCTURE: DESIGN OF INTERDISCIPLINARY REMOTE ENVIRONMENTAL
MONITORING STATIONS
Strachan, Scotty (1), Slater, Dave (2), Lyles, Brad (3), Smith, Ken (2), and McMahon, Mike (4)
(1) Department of Geography, University of Nevada, Reno, NV, (2) Nevada Seismological
Laboratory, University of Nevada, Reno, NV, (3) Division of Hydrologic Sciences, Desert Research
Institute, Reno, NV, (4) Department of Computer Sciences, University of Nevada, Reno, NV
Projections of environmental changes due to climate variability and human disturbance underscore
the need for in-situ landscape monitoring to provide baseline and future assessment information for
scientists and managers alike. As on-site field data acquisition evolves towards collaborative, multidisciplinary, and long-term efforts, the need for a centralized infrastructure model becomes apparent.
Historically, in-situ environmental monitoring has followed a fragmented approach, whereby hardware
and data-handling systems are highly specialized and do not offer flexibility for interdisciplinary work
or additions. Modern technology and systems design can allow implementation of data acquisition
and transport solutions that potentially revolutionize how environmental field research is performed.
Three critical drivers of environmental monitoring station design are reliability, communications
capability, and modularity. These key aspects directly affect the quality, quantity, and continuity of
data that can be acquired in any given geographical location. The centerpiece, or “killer app,” is a
high-speed data communications network that allows for internet-enabled connectivity in and out of
the site. Additionally, power generation and storage systems should be designed as simple,
redundant, and flexible. Building these items as well as modularity into monitoring stations ensures
that station uptime and long-term costs are optimized. As an example we outline the design of the
NevCAN (Nevada Climate-ecohydrologic Assessment Network) stations and supportive
infrastructure. NevCAN includes 11 remote stations which are solar-power dependent, ranging from
800 m to 3300 m in elevation, supported by hundreds of kilometers of high-speed wireless networking
links.
Poster
CAN TREE-RING CHRONOLOGIES DETERMINE THE CLIMATIC VARIABLES IN A PICEA
ENGELMANNII DISTRIBUTION MODEL?
Truettner, Charles M., Cole, Kenneth L., Cobb, Neil S., and Giles, John R.
Northern Arizona University, Merriam-Powell Center for Environmental Research, Flagstaff, AZ
Species distribution models traditionally evaluate the variables most critical for a species by applying
spatially explicit datasets of environmental variables (e.g. topography, soil types, climate datasets) in
relation to the presence and/or absence of the species. These variables may or may not be similar to
variables derived using other methods, especially since the factors controlling a species’ limit are
unlikely to be the same over its entire range. The link between a species' physiological processes
and limiting variables within a large-scale spatial dataset is essential to progress the science of
species distribution models. In this study, 20 published tree-ring chronologies extracted from the
International Tree Ring Data Bank in Southwestern, USA are correlated with a PRISM climate dataset
to understand which climatic variables are influencing the climate-growth relationship of Picea
engelmannii Parry ex Engelm. These climate variables are then used in a species distribution model
to assist in predicting the occurrence of P. engelmannii. Furthermore, the shift in the distribution of P.
engelmannii according to the parameters in the present model is projected into three future timesteps (2010 – 2039, 2040 – 2069, and 2070 – 2099 AD) using General Circulation Models
downscaled to the PRISM ~4 km grid (Garfin et al. 2010). Tree-ring chronologies and forest stand
dynamics are analyzed from three different elevation classes in the Pinaleño Mountains and San
Francisco Peaks to validate the possible upward migration of P. engelmannii in its southernmost
distribution. Preliminary results using both spatial datasets and tree-rings demonstrate that in this
region the distribution of P. engelmannii is strongly influenced by the severity of the early summer
drought. The species distribution model can assist land managers in decision-making processes
pertaining to adaptation strategies of species response to 21st century climatic warming.
42
Talk
CLIMATIC STRESS INCREASES FOREST FIRE SEVERITY INDEPENDENT OF FIRE INTENSITY
van Mantgem, Phillilp J. (1), Nesmith, Jonathan C. (2), Keifer, MaryBeth (3), and Knapp, Eric (4)
(1) USGS, Redwood Field Station, Arcata, CA, (2) National Park Service, Three Rivers CA, (3)
National Park Service, Boise, ID (4) USFS, Pacific Southwest Research Station, Redding, CA
Pervasive warming can lead to chronic stress on forest trees, potentially causing greater sensitivity
(increased mortality) to fire-caused injuries. Longitudinal analyses from over 300 forest plots from
across the western United States show that higher pre-fire water deficits substantially increase postfire mortality probabilities. This climate-fire interaction was present after accounting for fire defenses
and injuries, and was persistent across geographic regions, major genera and tree size. Warming
trends have been linked to increasing probabilities of severe fire weather and fire spread; our results
suggest that warming may also increase forest fire severity (the number of trees killed) independent
of fire intensity (the amount of heat released during a fire).
Poster
TEMPERATURE AS A POTENT DRIVER OF REGIONAL FOREST DROUGHT STRESS AND
TREE MORTALITY
Williams, A. Park (1), Allen, Craig D. (2), Macalady, Alison K. (3), Griffin, Daniel (3), Woodhouse,
Connie A. (3), Meko, David M. (3), Swetnam, Thomas W. (3), Rauscher, Sara A. (1), Seager, Richard
(4), Grissino-Mayer, Henri D. (5), Dean, Jeffrey (3), Cook, Edward R. (4), Gangodagamage,
Chandana (1), Cai, Michael (1), and McDowell, Nathan M. (1)
(1) Los Alamos National Laboratory, Los Alamos, NM, (2) US Geological Survey, Los Alamos, NM,
(3) University of Arizona, Tucson, AZ, (4) Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory of Columbia University,
Palisades, NY, (5) The University of Tennessee, Knoxville, TN
As climate changes, drought may reduce tree productivity and survival across many forest
ecosystems; however, the relative influence of specific climate parameters on forest decline is poorly
understood. We derive a forest drought-stress index (FDSI) for the southwestern United States
(SWUS) using a comprehensive tree-ring dataset representing CE 1000–2007. FDSI is approximately
equally influenced by warm-season vapor-pressure deficit (VPD; largely controlled by temperature)
and cold-season precipitation, together explaining 82% of FDSI variability. Correspondence between
FDSI and measures of forest productivity, mortality, bark-beetle outbreak, and wildfire validate FDSI
as a holistic forest-vigor indicator. If VPD continues increasing as projected by climate models, mean
forest drought stress by the 2050s will exceed that of the most severe droughts in over 1000 years.
Collectively, results foreshadow 21st century changes in SWUS forest structures and compositions,
with transition of SWUS forests, and perhaps water-limited forests globally, toward distributions
unfamiliar to modern civilization.
Invited Talk
AN OVERVIEW OF ADAPTIVE CAPACITY ASSESSMENT OPTIONS AND AN APPROACH FOR
ASSESSING THE READINESS OF FOREST MANAGEMENT ORGANIZATIONS TO RESPOND
TO CLIMATE CHANGE
Williamson, Tim (1) and Gray, Paul (2)
(1) Natural Resources Canada, Canadian Forest Service, Northern Forestry Centre, Edmonton, AB,
(2)
Government of Ontario, Ontario Ministry of Natural Resources
The rate and magnitude of climate change over the next century will be unprecedented from the point
of view of human resource management experience. Climate change impacts could manifest in the
form of simultaneously occurring, interacting, and dynamic effects on forest ecosystems, forest
related benefits, relative risks, and economic returns. Managers and practitioners can expect novel
43
conditions, surprises, increasing uncertainty, and reduced predictability about the future ecological
condition of forests and the availability of goods and services. Such changes in decision and
operating environments mean that forest managers will need to be more adaptable than is currently
the case. The challenge is to ascertain exactly what this means? What kinds of things contribute to
adaptability? How much more adaptability is needed and justified and in what areas? How do agents,
institutions, and organizations rationally enhance their capacity to adapt? Assessing the adaptive
capacity of forest management agents, organizations, and institutions is at an early stage. This
presentation summarizes some approaches for assessing adaptive capacity that have been used in
forest management contexts. For example, a study of the adaptive capacity of Canadian forest
management based on assessment of determinants such as human and social capitals, knowledge
management, and institutions is discussed. An important aspect of adaptive capacity assessment is
that it is context specific. A preliminary framework for assessing the readiness (or capacity) of forest
management organizations to respond to climate change and other effects is presented. Factors,
features, and activities that contribute to organizational readiness include sustainable forest
management principles, trusting relationships, organizational culture that fosters and adaptive
approach, informed leadership, partnerships, strategic planning, legislation and policy, knowledge,
information management, communications, education, knowledge exchange, and ability to implement
logical adaptation measures.
Invited Keynote
HEADWATER RIVERS AND CARBON STORAGE
Wohl, Ellen (1), Dwire, Kathleen A. (2), and Sutfin, Nicholas A.
(1) Dept. of Geosciences, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO, (2) USDA Forest Service,
Rocky Mountain Research Station, Fort Collins, CO
Mountainous headwater rivers are disproportionately important in global carbon fluxes because of
their influence on microbial activity and CO2 outgassing and storage of carbon in coarse dead wood.
Published research emphasizes rapid downstream export of terrestrial carbon via rivers, but little
work has focused on mechanisms that create carbon storage along mountainous headwater rivers, or
on the volume of carbon storage. We estimated organic carbon stored within floodplain sediments,
coarse dead wood, and vegetation in diverse valley types of headwater rivers in Rocky Mountain
National Park, Colorado, USA. Low gradient, broad valley bottoms with old-growth forest or active
beaver colonies store the great majority of carbon. Although these laterally unconfined valley
segments constitute < 25% of total river length, they store ~75% of the carbon. Floodplain sediment
and coarse wood dominate carbon storage in all valley types. Our estimates of riverine carbon
storage, over time spans of 102-103 years and volumes nearly a quarter of terrestrial upland storage,
represent a previously undocumented but important carbon sink. Patterns observed in this river
network likely apply to those in other temperate mountainous headwaters, with broad consequences
for understanding global carbon sequestration and managing biotic-river interactions.
Invited Talk
LIMNOLOGICAL CHANGES IN ALPINE LAKES OF WESTERN NORTH AMERICA: INFERENCES
FROM THE SEDIMENT RECORD
Wolfe, Alexander P.
Department of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, University of Alberta, Edmonton, AB, Canada
Lake sediments provide robust chronicles of environmental change that can be used to explore the
legacy of non-point source anthropogenic impacts in remote alpine ecosystems. A network of highresolution paleolimnological records spanning recent centuries has been developed from a selection
of alpine lakes of the western mountain states (Colorado, Montana, and Wyoming) and the province
of Alberta. These records combine siliceous microfossil assemblages (diatoms and chrysophytes)
and nitrogen stable isotopic ratios (15N) from organic matter, placed together in a chronological
framework derived from excess 210Pb inventories. Dramatic biogeochemical and ecological changes
are expressed in lakes across the entire cordilleran region, with shifts having occurred since the mid44
20th century eclipsing those of the prior several centuries. Two principal drivers of limnological change
can be identified: climate warming and anthropogenic nitrogen deposition. The former is most
pronounced in the northern sector of the transect, while the latter is most prominently expressed in
alpine lakes of Colorado. Potent synergies arise in relation to these phenomena, in a general sense
increasing lake primary production, reducing algal biodiversity, and changing the structure of lake
primary producer communities. Clearly, the notion of pristine aquatic ecosystems no longer applies to
any these lakes, even those situated within National Parks and subjected to stringent management
practices. The paleolimnological record is a harbinger of limnological changes that will surely be
propagated to higher trophic levels. Furthermore, the recent changes recorded by lake sediments are
sufficient to demarcate the transition from relatively stable conditions that characterized the Holocene
to more variable states associated with the Anthropocene, for which a date of A.D. 1950 is proposed.
Poster
STREAMFLOW AND MONSOON RECONSTUCTIONS FOR THE RIO GRANDE BASIN, USA
Woodhouse, Connie A. (1,2), Meko, David M. (2), Griffin, D. (1, 2), and Castro, Christopher L. (3)
(1) School of Geography and Development, University of Arizona, Tucson, AZ, (2) Laboratory of
Tree-Ring Research, University of Arizona, Tucson, AZ, (3) Department of Atmospheric Sciences,
University of Arizona, Tucson, AZ
In regions of the world with bi-modal precipitation regimes such as the southwestern US, water users
and resource management are vulnerable to multi-season droughts which can have significant
impacts on agriculture and ranching as well as on urban water demand. In these regions, knowledge
of hydroclimate variability in both seasons is critical for fully understanding drought and its impacts.
Tree-ring data have been used extensively to reconstruct past cool season droughts in the
Southwest, but until recently, information about monsoon season droughts has been lacking. A new
network of tree-ring data now allows investigations of the North American monsoon across the
southwestern US, including the Rio Grande basin of New Mexico, the focus of this study. A
reconstruction of monsoon precipitation is compared with reconstructed Rio Grande headwaters flow,
which is largely snow-melt dominated, over the past four centuries. Together, analysis of these two
reconstructions documents the variability of the dominant surface water supply for the region with
warm season precipitation, which also tempers surface water and groundwater demand. We find that
that low runoff followed by a dry monsoon is not unusual, and over the full reconstruction period, wet
or dry conditions are shared in both seasons more often than not. The current Rio Grande basin
drought, which began in 2000, does not yet appear to be unusually severe in either the instrumental
or paleoclimatic context, especially compared to a severe, sustained, multi-season drought in the
1700s. However, the impacts of this ongoing drought have been significant. Demand for water now
exceeds supply and climate change projections indicate decreasing winter precipitation in the future.
The nature of and controls on monsoon season precipitation are far from well-understood; this
paleoclimatic record of monsoon variability provides baseline information on a key component of
Southwestern climate.
45
ABSTRACTS FOR POST-MTNCLIM 2012 MANAGERS’ WORKSHOP
Bridging Boundaries: Climate Change Adaptation
Invited Talk
LESSONS LEARNED FROM BRIDGING BOUNDARIES: 50 YEARS OF THE GREATER
YELLOWSTONE COORDINATING COMMITTEE
Kelly, Virginia
Greater Yellowstone Coordinating Committee, NPS/USFS/USFWS/BLM, Bozeman, MT
The Greater Yellowstone Coordinating Committee (GYCC) fosters collaboration across boundaries
among the federal agencies of the Greater Yellowstone Area (GYA). One of the oldest interagency
land management partnerships in the country, it formed in the 1960’s between the two National Parks
and six National Forests, and now includes the US Fish and Wildlife Service and the Bureau of Land
Management. Together these four agencies manage more than 15 million acres of federal land in the
largest, essentially intact natural area in the lower 48 states. Factors for success include clear
manager intent, priority setting, assigning resources and fostering a culture of coordination, while a
primary challenge is staff capacity for interagency efforts. The GYCC operates with a Manager
Committee / staff Subcommittee structure; an interagency climate change adaptation team formed in
2010. The agencies’ current climate change adaptation efforts include building user-friendly tools for
accessing downscaled climate data, and a GYA wide interagency watershed-based vulnerability
assessment (2013). As leaders in climate change mitigation, the agencies developed the nation’s
first federal interagency greenhouse gas inventory and climate action plan.
Invited Talk
SPRING AND SEEP ASSESSMENTS IN THE SKY ISLAND REGION: A PROCESS OF
ENGAGING NGOS, RESOURCE MANAGERS, AND ACADEMICS
Misztal, Louise,
Sky Island Alliance, Tucson, AZ
In 2011 Sky Island Alliance began a two-year project to develop critical baseline information on
spring, and seep resources in the Sky Island region. The need for this type of spring inventory and
assessment was raised at two regional climate change adaptation workshops convened and
organized by Sky Island Alliance in collaboration with a variety of partners including federal and state
land and wildlife management agencies. It is known that springs in arid ecosystems occupy a small
fraction of the landscape and yet support disproportionately high levels of productivity, endemism and
biodiversity. Mangers with extensive on-the-ground knowledge identified a lack of critical data on the
ecological condition and management status of the majority of springs in the region as a serious
concern in implementing meaningful climate change-adaptive land management; either the data does
not exist or is jurisdiction specific. Developing a better and more in-depth knowledge base and
understanding of spring and seep resources in the region and developing restoration and protection
measures to best enhance those resources emerged as a recurring theme in workshop discussions.
The project is demonstrating to collection and application of assessment data in developing
management responses for adaptation in a collaborative and regional context. Major project
components include:
 Work collaboratively with land and resource managers to identify priority watersheds for
spring and seep assessments.
 Conduct spring and seep inventories and assessments using trained volunteers and
professional staff.
 Develop a regional database for housing and sharing historic data from cooperating agencies
along with new data generated through this project
 Utilize assessments of current spring and seep management in conjunction with land
managers and experts to develop climate change adaptation strategies and
recommendations for priority areas
46
Invited Talk
MANAGING FOR CHANGE IN THE GUNNISON BASIN: BUILDING RESILIENCE
Neely, Betsy
The Nature Conservancy, Colorado Chapter, Boulder, Colorado
Widespread ecological changes in the southwestern US are associated with global climate change.
Observed effects in the region include large-scale forest die-back, larger and more severe wildfires,
and changes in the flow regimes of rivers and streams. Climate scientists predict landscapes will
undergo major ecological transformations in the coming decades. These changes have prompted
action by the conservation community to reduce adverse effects of climate change. To build capacity
among natural resource managers and conservation practitioners for understanding and responding
to change, the Nature Conservancy, Climate Assessment for the Southwest/University of Arizona,
Wildlife Conservation Society, Western Water Assessment, University of Colorado, University of
Washington, US Forest Service and National Center for Atmospheric Research created the
Southwest Climate Change Initiative (SWCCI). The Gunnison Basin is one of four SWCCI pilot
landscape-level projects developing and testing ways to sustain natural resources and livelihoods in a
changing climate (others are in Utah, New Mexico and Arizona). The Gunnison Climate Working
Group, a partnership of 16 public and private entities in the Upper Gunnison Basin, is working to: 1)
understand the effects of climate change on species, ecosystems and people; 2) develop integrated
social/ecological adaptation strategies; and 3) promote coordinated implementation of strategies
across jurisdictional boundaries. The Group is currently designing and implementing an on-theground climate adaptation project to restore and enhance the resilience of wet meadows/riparian
areas -- important brood-rearing habitat – to help the Gunnison Sage-grouse and other wildlife
species adapt to a changing climate.
Invited Talk
COMBINING GEOSPATIAL VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT AND SCENARIO PLANNING FOR
CLIMATE ADAPTATION: A FIRE MANAGEMENT EXAMPLE
Nydick, Koren R. (1), Schwartz, M. (2), Moritz, Max (3), and Sydoriak, Charisse (1)
(1) USDOI National Park Service, Sequoia & Kings Canyon National Parks, Three Rivers, CA, (2)
University of California at Davis, Dept. of Environmental Science & Policy, Davis, CA,(3) University of
California at Berkeley, Dept. of Environmental Science, Policy & Management, Berkeley, CA
Scientists and land managers in the Southern Sierra Nevada are working together to re-evaluate fire
management in a changing climate. Fire is a potent resource management tool and potential stressor
because of its strong linkage to climate and direct and indirect effects on the environment and people.
We set out to develop knowledge, process, and tools to describe the future in a useful way for
planning, to identify what resources are vulnerable and where, and to help us prioritize management
strategies across the landscape. The novel process involves three tools: (1) a geospatial vulnerability
assessment that uses downscaled GCM output and analyzes vegetation stress related to climate and
fire; (2) scenario-based planning that considers multiple futures, incorporates both ecological and
socio-political uncertainties, and lets us think “outside the box” where models currently cannot go; and
(3) an interactive planning exercise that integrates the two – “Making it Real” and giving us practice in
adaptation planning. The combined ecological/socio-political scenarios have names like “Ecosystem
Management”, “Water Wars Ignite”, and “Mega Fire Looms”. The integrative process has proven
powerful to combine disparate information and actively engage participants in new ways of thinking
while making the results relevant to on-the-ground management.
47
Invited Talk
BRINGING RESILIENCE FROM THEORY TO PRACTICE
Ojima, Dennis
Natural Resource Ecology Lab, Colorado State University, Ft Collins, CO
Climate change is affecting our mountain communities disproportionately relative to their adaptive
capacity to adjust to the effects of climate and other stressors on ecosystem services and associated
natural resources. As we endeavor to manage for these changes and attempt to enhance the
resilience of the mountain systems, we are faced with a multi-faceted social-ecological challenge. The
dynamic nature of this challenge is defined by the multiple dimensions of the jurisdictional and
institutional boundaries which we deal with, the multi-scaled features of the biophysical and
biogeochemical dynamics we are confronted with, and the multiple demands on the natural resources
we are managing. Management and research activities which embrace these multiple dimensions
provide a basis of managing for resilience of these systems. Setting management goals and practices
which enhance the slow variables of social-ecological systems; such as landscape integrity, soil
organic matter, ecosystem structure, knowledge networks, institutional collaborations; will enhance
the resilience of the system. The presentation will provide a framework to explore how these concepts
might be utilized to develop adaptive management practices to enhance resilience of mountain social
ecological systems.
48
MtnClim 2012 Participants
Apple, Martha
Armstrong, Jonny
Arnone, Jay
Bachelet, Dominique
Baron, Jill
Beever, Erik
Berger, Karen
Berger, Wolfgang
Bobowski, Ben
Bottero, Alessandra
Bowman, Bill
Britten, Michael
Brown, Carissa
Bugmann, Harald
Bunn, Andy
Buotte, Polly
Cairns, David
Chandra, Sudeep
Chapman, Teresa
Childress, Amber
Christianson, Danielle
Clark, Doug
Clow, David
Cole, Ken
Cowles, Travis
Crawford, Christopher
Daly, Christopher
Das, Adrian
Delany, Diane
Dettinger, Mike
Devore, Karinjo
Driscoll, Jessica
Elliott, Grant
Eng, Sherri
Fegel, Timothy
Ferrenberg, Scott
Fountain, Andrew
Garfin, Gregg
Greenwood, Gregory
Greer, Burke
Griffin, Daniel
Gross, John
Hall, Ed
Harpold, Adrian
Harsch, Melanie
Hart, Sarah
Hartmann, Holly
Heath, Jared
Hicke, Jeff
Montana Tech of the University of Montana
University of Washington, Aquatic & Fishery Science
Desert Research Institute
Conservation Biology Institute
US Geological Survey
US Geological Survey, Rocky Mtn Science Center
San Dieguito River Valley Conservancy
Scipps Institute of Oceanography
National Park Service
University of Colorado, Department of Geography
University of Colorado
National Park Service, Rocky Mountain Network
Université de Sherbrooke
Swiss Federal Institute of Technology (ETH), Zurich
Western Washington University
University of Idaho
Texas A&M University
University of Nevada, Reno
University of Colorado, Geography Department
Colorado State University
University of California, Berkeley
Western Washington University
US Geological Survey
Northern Arizona University
University of Idaho
University of Minnesota
Oregon State University
US Geological Survey
US Forest Service, Pacific SW Research Station
US Geological Survey
Aspen International Mountain Foundation
University of Arizona, Hydrology and Water Resources
University of Missouri, Department of Geography
US Forest Service, Pacific SW Research Station
US Geological Survey
University of Colorado
Portland State University, Department of Geology
University of Arizona
Mountain Research Initiative
University of California, Santa Barbara
University of Arizona
National Park Service
US Geological Survey
University of Colorado
University of Washington
University of Colorado
University of Arizona
Colorado State University, Natural Resource Ecology Lab
University of Idaho
49
applemartha@gmail.com
jonny99@uw.edu
jarnone@dri.edu
dominique@consbio.org
jill.baron@colostate.edu
ebeever10@gmail.com
opabooks@aol.com
opabooks@aol.com
ben_bobowski@nps.gov
alessandra.bottero@unito.it
bowman@spot.colorado.edu
mike_britten@nps.gov
carissa.brown@usherbrooke.ca
harald.bugmann@env.ethz.ch
andy.bunn@wwu.edu
pollyb@3rivers.net
cairns@tamu.edu
sudeep@cabnr.unr.edu
teresa.chapman@colorado.edu
ambernicolechildress@gmail.com
dsvehla@berkeley.edu
doug.clark@wwu.edu
dwclow@usgs.gov
ken.cole@nau.edu
cowl5620@vandals.uidaho.edu
crawf188@umn.edu
daly@nacse.org
adas@usgs.gov
ddelany@fs.fed.us
mddettin@usgs.gov
karinjoaspen@aol.com
jmd@email.arizona.edu
elliottg@missouri.edu
seng@fs.fed.us
tfegel@emich.edu
scott.ferrenberg@colorado.edu
andrew@pdx.edu
gmgarfin@email.arizona.edu
green@giub.unibe.ch
burke.greer@geog.ucsb.edu
dgriffin@email.arizona.edu
john_gross@nps.gov
ehall@usgs.gov
adrian.harpold@gmail.com
harsch.melanie@gmail.com
sarah.hart@colorado.edu
hollyoregon@juno.com
jared.heath@colostate.edu
jhicke@uidaho.edu
Higuera, Philip
Hines, Sarah
Inouye, David
Johnson, Brittany
Johnson, Gunnar
Joyce, Linda
Kelly, Anne
Kopp, Christopher
Kostadinov, Tihomir
Kueppers, Lara
Lamarque, Pénélope
Langmaid, Kimberly
Lavorel, Sandra
Lintz, Heather
Lubetkin, Kaitlin
Luce, Charlie
Lukas, Jeff
Magaud, Marc
Malanson, George
Mamet, Steven
Matter, Margaret
McCabe, Greg
McLaughlin, Paul
Mensing, Scott
Millar, Constance
Miller, James
Misztal, Louise
Mote, Phil
Moyes, Andrew
Neely, Betsy
Nydick, Koren
Ojima, Dennis
Pederson, Greg
Peterson, Dave
Pinel, Sandra Porinchu, Dave
Prevey, Janet
Price, David
Rangwala, Imtiaz
Redmond, Kelly
Rice, Janine
Running, Steve
Sanford, Todd Sankey, Joel
Schreier, Hans
Scuderi, Louis
Sickman, Jim
Simeral, David
Starrat, Scott
Stavros, Erica
Stephenson, Nathan
Stewart‐Frey, Iris
Strachan, Scotty
University of Idaho
US Forest Service, Rocky Mountain Research Station
University of Maryland
Desert Research Institute
University of Portland
US Forest Service, Rocky Mountain Research Station
University of California, Irvine
University of California, San Diego
University of Richmond
University of California, Merced
Laboratoire d'Ecologie Alpine, CNRS
National Forest Foundation
Laboratoire d'Ecologie Alpine, CNRS
Oregon State University
University of California, Merced
US Forest Service
University of Colorado, CIRES Western Water Assessment
French Embassy, Office of Science and Technology
University of Iowa
University of Saskatchewan
Utah State University, Utah Water Research Lab
US Geological Survey
Rocky Mountain National Park
University of Nevada, Reno
US Forest Service, Pacific SW Research Station
Rutgers University
Sky Island Alliance
Oregon State University
University of California, Merced
The Nature Conservancy
Sequoia & Kings Canyon National Parks
Colorado State University
US Geological Survey, Northern Rocky Mtn Science Cntr
US Forest Service, Pacific NW Research Station
University of Idaho, College of Natural Resources University of Georgia
University of Colorado
Natural Resources Canada
Rutgers University
Wstrn Regional Climate Cntr, Desert Research Institute
University of Colorado and US Forest Service
University of Montana
Union of Concerned Scientists, Climate & Energy Program US Geological Survey
University of British Columbia
University of New Mexico
University of California, Riverside
Desert Research Institute
US Geological Survey
University of Washington
US Geological Survey
Santa Clara University, Environmental Studies Institute
University of Nevada, Reno
50
phiguera@uidaho.edu
shines@fs.fed.us
inouye@umd.edu
bjohnson@dri.edu
gfj@pdx.edu
ljoyce@fs.fed.us
a.kelly@uci.edu
ckopp@gmail.com
kostadinov.t@gmail.com
lkueppers@ucmerced.edu
penelope.lamarque@gmail.com
klangmaid@nationalforests.org
sandra.lavorel@ujf‐grenoble.fr
hlintz@coas.oregonstate.edu
klubetkin@ucmerced.edu
cluce@fs.fed.us
lukas@colorado.edu
attache‐envt@ambascience‐usa.org
george‐malanson@uiowa.edu
smamet@ualberta.ca
margaret.matter@usu.edu
gmccabe@usgs.gov
paul_mclaughlin@nps.gov
smensing@unr.edu
cmillar@fs.fed.us
miller@marine.rutgers.edu
louise@skyislandalliance.org
pmote@coas.oregonstate.edu
amoyes@ucmerced.edu
bneely@tnc.org
koren_nydick@nps.gov
dennis.ojima@colostate.edu
gpederson@usgs.gov
wild@u.washington.edu
spinel@uidaho.edu porinchu@uga.edu
janet.prevey@colorado.edu
dprice@nrcan.gc.ca
rangwala@marine.rutgers.edu
kelly.redmond@dri.edu
jrice02@fs.fed.us
swr@ntsg.umt.edu
tsanford@ucsusa.org
jsankey@usgs.gov
star@mail.ubc.ca
cirque1@gmail.com
james.sickman@ucr.edu
dave.simeral@dri.edu
sstarrat@usgs.gov
enstavros@gmail.com
nstephenson@usgs.gov
istewartfrey@scu.edu
scotty@dayhike.net
Tonnessen, Kathy
Truettner, Charles
Van Mantgem, Phillip
Wallace, Rebecca
Wayand, Nicholas
Westfall, Robert
Wilkening, Nifer
Williams, Alton
Williamson, Tim Wohl, Ellen
Wolfe, Alex
Woodhouse, Connie
National Park Service
Merriam‐Powell Center for Environmental Research
US Geological Survey
Aspen International Mountain Foundation
University of Washington
US Forest Service, Pacific SW Research Station
University of Colorado
Los Alamos National Laboratory
Natural Resources Canada, Canadian Forest Service Colorado State University
University of Alberta
University of Arizona
51
kathy_tonnessen@nps.gov
cmt242@nau.edu
pvanmantgem@usgs.gov
rebwallace@comcast.net
nicway@u.washington.edu
bwestfall@fs.fed.us
jennifer.wilkening@colorado.edu
parkwilliams@lanl.gov
tim.williamson@nrcan‐rncan.gc.ca
ellen.wohl@colostate.edu
awolfe@ualberta.ca
conniew1@email.arizona.edu