THE CLIMATE OF THE SHOSHONE NATIONAL FOREST: PAST
CHANGES, FUTURE PROJECTIONS, AND ECOSYSTEM IMPLICATIONS
Janine
1
Rice ,
Andrew
2
Tredennick ,
Linda
3
Joyce
1 Western Water Assessment/USDA Forest Service, Rocky Mountain Research Station, Fort Collins, CO jrice02@fs.fed.us
2 Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO 3 USDA Forest Service, Rocky Mountain Research Station, Fort Collins, CO
Ecosystem Implications for Management
Building Science-Management Partnerships
Vegetation and associated wildlife may
migrate upslope as temperatures warm,
and distributions of current high elevation
biota may become increasingly fragmented
and rare as they move to higher elevations
of more limited extent (Rice et al. in progress).
The Shoshone National Forest Case Study is one of three USDA Forest
Service Projects that are developing science-based adaptation tools
for resource managers to help them address climate change.
As a first step, the Shoshone Case study is synthesizing scientific
information specific to the Forest to help guide future tool
development.
Historic Climate
Future Projections
Historic Climate of the Shoshone has varied greatly
over the last 20,000 years. Temperatures have been
up to 4 ˚F warmer than present. For the last ~10,000
years, precipitation at low elevations has followed a
summer-wet/winter-dry
pattern,
while
upper
elevations follow summer-dry/winter-wet regime.
Future Temperatures are predicted to rise at least 29˚F by 2100. While precipitation changes are more
uncertain, the upper elevations especially in the north
Shoshone may become wetter while lower elevations
may become drier.
Average Temperature Difference MIROC A1B
2071-2100 minus 1971-2000 average
Average Precipitation Difference MIROC A1B
2071-2100 minus 1971-2000 average
1971 – 2000 Annual Average
Temperature: 20 – 46 ˚F
Precipitation: 10 – 60 ˝
For elevations 5,000 – 13,845
feet
Source: Huerta et al. 2009; Baker 1970; Fall 1995; Whitlock & Bartlein 1993; Bartlein 1998; Gray 2007
Increased fire severity and frequency may
contribute to the expansion of fire adapted species
(e.g. Lodgepole pine) and the spread of invasive
species (Bartlein et al. 1997).
Snow packs may be reduced 50% or more and
runoff may begin 4-5 weeks earlier with a 7 ˚F
temperature increase by 2100 (Baron et al. 2000)
Source: USGS
Glaciers may disappear by the early to mid 2000’s (Hall &
Fagre 2003). A 25% loss of glacial mass since 1985 may have
increased stream flow 4-10% (Cheesbrough et al. 2009).
Bark beetle outbreaks may expand in range,
northward or upward in elevation, where suitable
hosts exist (Bentz 2005).
Warmer stream temperatures of 6-9 ˚F by 2100
may reduce suitable salmonid habitat 40-60%,
and low late summer stream flow, glacial and
stream loss would further hinder salmonids (Keleher
Yellowstone Cutthroat Trout
& Rahel 1996, Rice et al. in progress).
The local $170 mil/year agricultural industry may
be hampered by more unreliable and increasingly
scarce water supplies (Rice et al. in progress).
Downscaled by Ron Neilson, USFS
Downscaled by Ron Neilson, USFS
Rocky Mountain Research Station
240 W. Prospect St
Fort Collins, CO 80526
http://www.fs.fed.us/rmrs/
The >$300 mil/year tourist industry may benefit from
warmer temperatures and longer tourist seasons (Rice
et al. in progress).