The MTNCLIM Year: Western Climate 2009-10
in Perspective
Kelly T. Redmond
Western Regional Climate Center
Desert Research Institute
Reno Nevada
HJ Andrews LTER, Blue River OR
7-10 June 2010
Spring 2009
June 2009
July 2009
August 2009
Summer 2009
19 August 2009
La Canada 2009 August 28 1:35 pm
2009 August 29
Genero Molina, Los Angeles Times
2009 August 29
Tivor the Browncoat
Station Fire 2009 August 29
2009 August 30
Jonathan Alcorn
Station Fire 2009 August 30
2009 August 31
Ken Hively Los Angeles Times
2009 August 31
Don Bartletti, Los Angeles Times
2009 August 31
Mel Melcon, Los Angeles Times
2009 Sep 01 0100 GMT Water Vapor
Station Fire
Plume
Jimena
2009 Sep 01
135 kt
931 mb
Historic
Mount Wilson
2009 September 2
Saved. Yay!
September 2009
October 2009
Water Year 2009
Oct 2008
Thru
Sep 2009
Water Year
Oct-Sep
Precip
California
Statewide
1895/96
thru
2008/09
November 2007
Autumn 2009
Reno 2009 Nov 20
December 2009
January 2010
Western United States (11 states) Annual Jan-Dec Temperature
Provisional data from NCDC / CPC. Blue: 11-year running mean.
Units: Deg F. Data source NOAA cooperative network, thru Dec 2009.
Annual Mean Temperature ( F )
53
52
51
50
49
48
47
1890 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
Year
Western Regional
Climate Center
Thru Dec 2009
NOAA
National
Climatic Data
Center
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
United States Annual Temperature Departure from 1950-1995 Mean
NOAA Divisional Data, Western Regional Climate Center, Plotted by ESRL PSD
2000-2009 United States Annual Temperature Departure from 1950-1995 Mean
Absolute units (Degrees F)
Standardized units (std deviations)
NOAA Divisional Data, Western Regional Climate Center, Plotted by ESRL PSD
Number of U.S. Wildland Fires through 2009
(numbers after 1990 adjusted by NIFC in 2007)
Number of Fires
250000
200000
150000
100000
50000
0
1960
1970
1980
Year
1990
2000
2010
Western Regional Climate Center
Source: National Interagency Fire Center
www.nifc.gov/fire_info/fires_acres.htm
Acres burned U.S. Fires through December 31, 2009.
Values after 1990 adjusted by NIFC in 2007.
Number of acres
10000000
8000000
6000000
4000000
2000000
0
1960
1970
1980
1990
Year
2000
2010
Western Regional Climate Center
Source: National Interagency Fire Center
www.nifc.gov/fire_info/fires_acres.htm
Five-day total
Ending
2010 Jan 22
Burned late Aug
And early Sept 2009
February 2010
Winter 2010
Mt Waterman From Victorville 2010 February 04
Don Bartletti, Los Angeles Times
Snow in all
Continental states
But …
Not Mauna Kea
2010 Feb 13
March 2010
April 2010
May 2010
Spring 2010
Water Year Temperature Departure 2009 October 1 thru 2010 June 3
Last 30 days thru 2010 June 3
Select: Blue River area, 12 months ending in Dec, Temperature 0 C, 9-year running mean.
Elevation of Freezing Level over Blue River. Annual. 1948 through 2009.
Elevation of Freezing Level over Blue River. Winter. 1948 thru 2010.
Elevation of Freezing Level over Blue River. Spring. 1948 thru 2010.
Elevation of Freezing Level over Blue River. May. 1948 thru 2010.
Elevation of Freezing Level over Blue River. April-May. 1948 thru 2010.
Elevation of Freezing Level over Blue River. Summer. 1948 thru 2009.
Mountain Snowpack Percent of Average
2010 Mar 1 and May 1 NRCS
Streamflow forecasts from NRCS
March 1
2010
May 1
Lake Powell Storage Through June 3, 2010
Currently 60 % full (June 3, 2010)
Minimum: 33 % full on April 8, 2005
Lake Powell Elevation Through June 3, 2010
Water level on June 3, 2010 was 3627.66 ft, -72.34 ft below full.
Minimum level on April 8, 2005 was 3555 ft, -145 ft below full.
Source: www.usbr.gov/uc/water/index.html
Mount Hood, Oregon
5400 ft
Wallowa Mountains, Northeast Oregon
7410 feet
San Juan Mountains, Southwest Colorado
11,200 feet
White Mountains, Mogollon Rim, Northeast Arizona
9020 feet
Through May 2010
“El Nino”
“La Nina”
NOAA ESRL (“CDC”), Wolter and Timlin
Global Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies ( C ) 2010 May 23-29
NOAA ESRL (“CDC”)
Recent Evolution of Equatorial Pacific SST Departures
Updated through 2010 May 23-29
Reno
Wind
Storm
2009
Nov 20
Bango
Nevada
2009
Nov 20
Mount
Warren
2009
Nov 20
Mount
Warren
2009
Nov 20
Mt Warren Summit Station 12,327 ft
Mt. Warren. 12327 ft / 3757 m
10-Minute Wind Gusts
2009 Sep 4 – 2010 Jun 5
Mt. Warren. 12327 ft / 3757 m
10-Minute Mean Temperature
2009 Sep 4 – 2010 Jun 5
Pt Reyes Lighthouse Rock
Elev 526 ft
Point
Reyes
Loading
up on
Wind
2010
Feb 04
Point
Reyes
2010
Feb 04
Wind
Rise
Then
Drop
Highlands
Big Sur
2470 ft
Wind
Oscillation
90-day
Average winds
250 mb
2009 Nov 14 2010 Feb 11
Reno
Sunrise
2010
Mar 27
11 February 2010
“Folks, if you look out the
left side of the plane…”
Montserrat
Mary Jo Penkala
2010 February 11
2010 April 4 0000Z Wave Clouds
Eyjafjallajokull
2010 April 14
Zuma Press
Eyjafjallajokull
2010 April 14
Iceland Coast Guard
Eyjafjallajokull
2010 April 14
Iceland Coast Guard
Eyjafjallajokull 2010 April 14
Iceland Coast Guard
Eyjafjallajokull 2010 April 15
Eyjafjallajokull
2010 April 15
Eyjafjallajokull 2010 April 15
Eyjafjallajokull 2010 April 15
Eyjafjallajokull 2010 April 15
San Juan Mountains April 2010
Orographic Clouds GOES Visible 2010 May 24 2345 GMT
Mackenzie Pass
2010 May 27
16 feet of snow
At summit
Central Cascade Range, Western Oregon
4770 feet
Max depth 95”
Percent of
Average
Precipitation
Water Year
To Date
01 Oct 2009
thru
13 Apr 2010
Temperature
Departure
Water Year
To Date
01 Oct 2009
thru
13 Apr 2010
Temperature
Departure
April to Date
01 Apr 2010
thru
13 Apr 2010
Tmin Ranks
May 2010
Tmax Ranks
John Abatzoglou
Temperature Departure from Climatology 700 mb (10,000 ft)
Apr – Sep 2009
Oct – Mar 2009-2010
Oct 2009
Jan 2010
Nov 2009
Feb 2010
Dec 2009
Mar 2010
Temperature
Departure from
Climatology
700 mb /
10,000 feet
Winter 2009 - 2010
Apr 2010
May 2010
Winter Dec-Jan-Feb 2009-10 Temperature Departure at 700 mb ( 10,000 feet)
500 mb (18,000 ft) Height Departure from Average.
180 days ending
12 April 2010
Global Surface Temperature Departure (C)
180 Days Ending 12 April 2010
Sea Ice Extent
2010 June 3
NSIDC
As of 3 June 2010
April 2020. Lowest North American Snow Cover for April 1907-2010
Apr-May 2010 Temperature Departure at 700 mb ( 10,000 feet)
Daily Global Temperature from Microwave Sounding Unit, Ch 5, 4.4 km.
University of Alabama – Huntsville. Roy Spencer
Daily Global Temperature from Microwave Sounding Unit, Ch 5, 4.4 km.
University of Alabama – Huntsville. Roy Spencer
Jan-May 1998 +0.65 C
Jan-May 2010 +0.59 C
(same within error)
University of Alabama – Huntsville. Roy Spencer
Surface
Observations
Thru
April 2010
NCDC
In the news …
Sub-Sea
Blow Out Preventer
(BOP)
Mt. St. Helens. 1980 May 17. Harry Glicken (USGS) *
* Killed by pyroclastic flow, Mt Unzen, 1991, along with Katja and Maurice Krafft.
0845
am
0915
am
0945
am
1335
pm
Spirit Lake. Before.
Spirit Lake. After.
Apollo 8, Christmas Eve, 1968.
Change happens.
LANDSAT.
1975
2005
Change happens some more.
In 2010, tallest trees about 70 feet.
“Nothing is constant except change.”
Mount Everest. The Highest Spot on Earth.
Hubble Space Telescope
Supernova 1987a
Eta Carina
Earth and Moon
taken by
Galileo Spacecraft
on the way to
Jupiter
1992 December 30
Annual Tmax Trend from 1950-2008 from PRISM (recent, not latest version).
Thanks to John Abatzoglou
Annual Tmin Trend from 1950-2008 from PRISM (recent, not latest version).
Thanks to John Abatzoglou
Annual Tmax Trend from 1975-2008 from PRISM (recent, not latest version).
Thanks to John Abatzoglou
Annual Tmin Trend from 1975-2008 from PRISM (recent, not latest version).
Thanks to John Abatzoglou
Cold air pooling and inversions.
Colored terrain above typical inversion depth. PRISM input.
PRISM Overview 5-8-08
Courtesy
Chris Daly
MTNCLIM
America’s Largest
Rain Gauge
Drainage Divide
Radius 4.64 km
Ring width 530 m
Crater Lake
Radius 4.11 km
78.5 % of basin
Ring area
is 27.4 % of
lake area
Munson Valley. Park HQ Climate Station
Crater Lake Annual Water Level Change, Cleetwood Cove.
Park Headquarters Oct-Sept Precipitation, 1961 - 2003.
100
80
Lake Level Change ( cm )
60
40
20
0
-20
-40
LLC = 1.399 * PHQ - 235.82
N = 42
-60
r = 0.960
2
r = 0.921
-80
-100
-120
Mean =
168.6
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
220
Park Headquarters Precipitation ( cm )
240
Surface Water Elevation
(cm above 6175')
Crater Lake Water Elevation (Adjusted to Sept 30)
Referenced to Nominal Elevation of 6175 feet MSL
100
50
0
-50
-100
-150
-200
-250
-300
-350
-400
1890 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
Year
Western Regional
Climate Center
Level (cm above 1992.14 m / 6175 ft )
Crater Lake Water Level, Observed and Reconstructed Sep 30.
Reconstruction using 2004 coefficients from 1931 onward,
coefficients from 1990 prior. Prospect infill. Fixed point 1986.
100
0
-100
-200
-300
Observed
Reconstructed
-400
-500
1890 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
Year
Western Regional
Climate Center
Water Level 60 hours ending June 5, 2020 Noon
Daily midnight water level from 2009 Sep 01 thru 2010 June 4
Crater Lake
Buoy
Station 13
366 days
ending
2010 Jun 5
Water Temp
(F)
Air Temp
(F)
Thank You
Crater Lake, Oregon