ASSESSING POTENTIAL TRADEOFFS
IN ECOSYSTEM SERVICES
WITH CLIMATE CHANGE AND FIRE MANAGEMENT
IN A MOUNTAINOUS LANDSCAPE
ON THE OLYMPIC PENINSULA, WASHINGTON, USA
Rebecca Kennedy
USDA Forest Service
Pacific Northwest Research Station
Corvallis, Oregon
The Wilderness Society 2010
What is the future of our
ecosystem services?
ES Defined: The multitude of resources
and processes that are supplied by natural
ecosystems, and from which humankind
benefits
Services include maintenance of biodiversity, clean
drinking water (provisioning), carbon sequestration
(regulating), nutrient dispersal and cycling
(supporting), intellectual and spiritual (cultural)
We can evaluate how services may respond to change
to better understand the resiliency of a system
Concept was formalized and popularized
via UN 2004 Millennium Assessment
Forest management reflects human
values for ecosystem services
The Northwest Forest Plan (1994-)
To conserve habitat
for the Northern
Spotted Owl and
other older forest
associates
etc.
Northern Spotted Owl
(Strix occidentalis caurina)
Reserved large blocks of older
forest with structural complexity
including standing and down
dead wood
Static network of reserves on federal lands
Designed for PNW moist forests with long
mean fire return intervals
Ecosystem services:
Carbon Sequestration
Where is the US Carbon?
The Wilderness Society 2010
Risks* to Ecosystem Services: older forest habitat
Northern Spotted Owl nest site
in dry forest Late Successional
Reserve
* Barred Owls
Forest Insects/Disease
Climate change + fire
Recent response to risk of loss of older forest
habitat in dry forests: USFWS NSO Recovery Plan
“identify, maintain, and restore …
dry forest habitat-capable area as
spatially dynamic high-quality
spotted owl habitat patches”
Westside PNW dry forests
may need special care in
the face of climate change
In areas of high vulnerability from
climate change
We need better information about
potential future fire and vegetation
dynamics, and effects on wildlife habitat
and C dynamics
Fire Regimes and Climate Change Effects
on Ecosystem Services Project Objectives
Characterize potential future vegetation
dynamics and fire risk and related
ecosystem services in the dry forests of the
Pacific Northwest
Climate
change
Fire
Veg
Habitat
C
Assess how climate change and fire
management may affect habitat for
older forest-associated wildlife
species and other species of concern
Assess how total carbon and its
dynamics over time at the landscape
scale may be affected by climate
change and fire management
Are there tradeoffs among
ecosystem services given
different levels of fire and
fuels mgt?
Fire Regimes and Climate Change
Effects on Ecosystem Services Project
Multiple PNW Landscapes, including:
C WA Wenatchee NF Zone
1. Develop manager-tailored scenarios designed to
promote development and maintenance of NSO
habitat, foster system resilience to fire and climate
change
2. Link to HexSim Population Dynamics Models for
NSO, BDOW
3. Assess potential C, habitat dynamics for multiple spp.
C OR “Upper Deschutes” Deschutes NF Zone
1.Assess potential C, habitat dynamics for multiple
species
2.Characterize tree species sensitivity to CC
3.Develop aquatic/riparian module for spp. of interest
4.Link Fire and Vegetation Dynamics findings to VDDT
ILAP (OR, WA, AZ, NM project)
Olympic National Park
~630 mm ppt/yr
Known for temperate rain forest
on western (wet) side
+3,600 mm ppt/yr
E (dry) side in rain
shadow of
Mt Olympus->drier
forest types
Lightning-caused fire,
Little River Valley,
Olympic National Park
Olympic National Park
Drier forests have high vulnerability to
changes in timing of spring and
cumulative moisture deficit
Steep stream
gradients
Dungeness River
drops 2225 m over 52 km
(avg. 43m/km)
Upper reaches
~200m/km
Westerling et al. 2006
Ecosystem services
Olympic National Forest is #2
Carbon-Storing NF in US
Olympic National Park has
treasured old-growth forest
habitat
Olympic National Park has
the largest unmanaged herd
of Roosevelt elk in the world
Northern spotted owl habitat
Strix occidentalis caurina
larger conifer
trees
Large
blocks of
older
forest
more conifer
canopy closure
Threatened status (ESA)
Territorial, non-migratory
Home range: 5775 ha
Olympic Peninsula (1196
ha Oregon Cascades)
greater
structural
complexity
Older Forest
Associate
(OFAS)
Preferred patch conditions depend on prey
Dusky footed woodrat (S): young forest, + edge
Northern flying squirrel (N): older multi-layer forest, -edge
Marbled murrelet nesting habitat
Brachyramphus marmoratus
Large
conifer
trees
Large mossy
limbs
Avg 60m above
ground
©Gus VanVliet
10” seabird
Threatened status (ESA)
Nests in coastal OG forests
2-30+ miles inland
Flight speed avg. 57 mph
(63 mph at sea)
Older Forest
Associate
(OFAS)
©Troy Guy
Pacific Fisher habitat
Martes pennanti
Large blocks
of older
forest
Den in
snags
Closed
canopies
Older Forest
Associate
(OFAS)
Solitary mammal
Tree climber
Endangered (WA)
Reintroduced to
Olympic NP 2008
Roosevelt elk habitat
Cervus elaphus roosevelti
Forage and
security
cover
Habitat varies
seasonally
Grazers S/S
Browsers F/W
Productive
grasslands,
meadows, or
clearcuts +
closed-canopy
forests
WA State Mammal
Cultural importance
Elk protection ->
Olympic NP (1909)
Olympic NP has
largest unmanaged
population in US
Fire-BGCv2 – Fire BioGeoChemical Succession model
Keane et al. 1996a, Keane et al. 1996b, Keane et al. 1997
Keane et al. 1998, Keane et al. 1999, Keane et al. in prep.
Key Levels of Organization
Mechanistic, individual tree succession
vegetation model containing stochastic
properties implemented in a spatial
domain +
spatially explicit fire ignition and spread
model
LANDSCAPE
SITE
STAND
PLOT
TREE
An illustration and a generalized diagram showing the complexity of
ecological processes simulated on the landscape.
The forest floor components that
comprise the fuelbed and the
processes that affect the flux of carbon
and water to these components.
(from Keane et al. in prep.)
Fire-BGCv2
INPUTS
SCENARIOS
Fire
Regimes
(site)
OUTPUTS
POSTPROCESSING
Qs?
+
Current veg:
stand boundaries,
individ. species
phys, tree lists,
fuels
+
Elevation (DEM)
Climate
change
parameters
Forest
vegetation
characteristics
+
Fire, fuels
mgt levels
Fire
characteristics
+
Recent weather
streams (50y)
Maps and
Tabular data
+
Site
conditions:
soils, snow…
FRAGSTATS,
R, etc.
What are the
potential
effects on C
dynamics,
wildlife habitat
dynamics?
Dungeness watershed, Olympic National Park
38,000 ha area
11 sites and
507 forest stands
delineated and sampled
Elevation
2368
183
WA
Complex topography
with steep gradients
14 tree species
Grand fir
Douglas-fir
Subalpine fir
Whitebark pine
Western white pine
Lodgepole pine
Western red cedar
Western hemlock
Mountain hemlock
Pacific silver fir
Sitka alder
Yellow cedar
Western yew
Red alder
66 physiology and life history
variables per species
Tree list
species
dbh
live/dead
soil water, soil depth,
snowpack,
%sand/silt/clay
fuel model
height to base of
live crown
1, 10. 100, 1000hr fuels
age
shade tolerant and
intolerant shrubs and
herbs (kg/m2)
Site starting average fire
frequency 150-350 years
(kg/m2)
Climate change parameters
Seasonal shifts in
temperature and precipitation
+deg.C
A1B
B1
+% Ppt
A1B
B1
winter
3.3
2.7
winter
7.9
7.3
spring
2.8
2.1
spring
9.8
5.5
summer
4.5
3.0
summer
-14.4
-11.2
A1B
B1
fall
3.4
2.4
fall
8.0
4.8
Mote and Salathe 2009
analyzed 20 global climate models
downscaled for the Pacific Northwest
(124-111deg. W longitude, 41.5-49.5 deg. N. Latitude)
From Mote, P.W., and E.P. Salathé. 2009. Future climate in the
Pacific Northwest. Chapter 1 in The Washington Climate
Change Impacts Assessment: Evaluating Washington's Future
in a Changing Climate, Climate Impacts Group, University of
Washington, Seattle, Washington.
Fire management parameters
Fire management
type
Full suppression
Wildland fire mgt
Natural fire mgt
% fires suppressed
90
50
10
Simulation summary
2 Climate change scenarios
+ 1 Historical climate scenario
+ 1 Current climate scenario
X
3 Fire management scenarios
= 12 scenarios
X
6 replicates
=72 model runs (~1000 hrs)
500 year simulation period
A1B climate change scenario, 90% fire suppression - snapshots
Species Composition
Simulation Year
100
500
Structural Stage
C and habitat dynamics with 90% fire suppression
Older Forest Habitat
with 90% Fire Suppression
20
100
15
80
A_FS
10
B_FS
5
C_FS
0
60
A_FS
40
B_FS
20
C_FS
0
50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 500
0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 500
C: A&B: 50% of starting total C after
initial phase
Elk Early Seral Habitat
with 90% Fire Suppression
100
HSI (0-100)
HSI (0-100)
C kg/m2
Total C
with 90% Fire Suppression
80
60
A_FS
40
B_FS
20
C_FS
OF: Current climate: stable
A&B – Declines to A: 40%, B: 57%
of initial amount
0
50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 500
Elk: A&B increase early seral
component of habitat
C and habitat dynamics with 10% fire suppression
Older Forest Habitat
with 10% Fire Suppression
HSI (0-100)
100
80
60
A_NF
40
B_NF
20
C_NF
0
50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 500
C: Both climate change scenarios
about 20% of starting amounts
Elk Early Seral Habitat
with 10% Fire Suppression
HSI (0-100)
100
80
60
A_FS
40
B_FS
20
C_FS
0
OF: Current: more variability,
greater declines with natural fire
A&B – large declines –ending amts
A: 12%, B: 20% of initial
50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 500
Elk: A&B slightly higher than
current; all fairly stable; more early
with 10% fire suppression than 90%
C spatial dynamics
10%
Level of Fire Suppression
50%
90%
Total C (mean
across replicates)
A1B
Simulation Year
250
structural stage
(A1B-90-500)
500
A1B
B1
Climate Change Scenario
B1
Older forest spatial dynamics
10% Fire Suppression
60
60
50
50
40
30
AFS
20
BFS
10
CFS
% of Landscape Area
% of Landscape Area
90% Fire Suppression
30
ANF
20
BNF
10
CNF
0
50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 500
50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 500
Simulation Year
Simulation Year
60
60
50
50
40
30
AFS
20
BFS
10
CFS
0
Largest Patch Index
Largest Patch Index
0
40
40
30
ANF
20
BNF
10
CNF
0
50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 500
50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 500
Simulation Year
Simulation Year
Older forest spatial dynamics
10% Fire Suppression
1400
1400
1200
1200
1000
800
AFS
600
400
BFS
200
CFS
Mean Patch Area (m2)
Mean Patch Area (m2)
90% Fire Suppression
1000
800
400
BNF
200
CNF
0
0
50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 500
50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 500
Simulation Year
Simulation Year
18
16
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
AFS
BFS
CFS
Edge Density
Edge Density
ANF
600
18
16
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
ANF
BNF
CNF
50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 500
50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 500
Simulation Year
Simulation Year
Wildlife habitat dynamics
Elk
Maintained for most climate
change scenarios with/without
fire suppression
Some simulations of hot, dry
climate had periods with no
mature habitat, much grazing
habitat post-disturbance
HOTDRYNS50
HOTDRYNS500
Variability over time is key!
Older forest associates
Some simulations of A1B
climate decreased habitat
more than B1 climate – reset
to early successional with high
severity fires
HOTDRYNS50 HOTDRYNS500
Current and Next Steps
Fire Regimes and Climate Change Effects
on Ecosystem Services Project
Develop new wildlife habitat modules (aq. & terr.)
Analyze C components (vegC, litter C, soilC)
Analyze veg community composition dynamics
Wet vs. dry ONP landscape comparison
Collect field data (Summer 2011+) in Deschutes, Willamette,
Wenatchee NFs
Develop management scenarios (with NFS, NPS)
Coordinating with other climate change-related research:
MC1 (Dominique Bachelet, Cons. Bio. Inst.; OSU)
MC1/VDDT (Becky Kerns, PNW)
NetMap (Gordie Reeves, PNW) – Hydrology: erosion,
debris flows, thermal loading
Coordinating with HexSim wildlife population modeling (NSO,
BDOW, VFO Project, etc.)
Inform USFWS NSO Recovery Plan and Implementation
Acknowledgements
for more info: Rebecca Kennedy
rebeccakennedy@fs.fed.us
Bob Keane (RMRS) – God of FireBGCv2
CLIMET project (National Biological Service Global Change Research Program)
Erik Haunreiter (OSU)
Alisa Keyser, Rachel Loehman, Lisa Holsinger (RMRS)
Scott Gremel (ONP), Philip Mote (OSU)
ARRA ILAP project (Integrated Landscape Assessment Project)