AGENDA MTNCLIM 2010 H.J. Andrews Experimental Forest, Blue River, Oregon June 7-10, 2010 www.fs.fed.us/psw/mtnclim MONDAY JUNE 7 1:00-5:00pm Pre-Conference Field Trip, Andrews Forest and Lookout Creek Watershed, Barbara Bond and Mark Schulze, Oregon State University, Corvallis, OR. Meet at the HJ Andrews Forest Headquarters 2:00-6:00 MtnClim Registration & Onsite Lodging Check-in; Poster Set-up HJ Andrews Forest Headquarters, McRae Cafeteria Foyer 5:00 Appetizers, McRae Cafeteria Foyer 6:00 Dinner, McRae Cafeteria 7:30-9:30 MtnClim 2010 Convenes, Conference Hall Moderator, Connie Millar, USDA Forest Service, Albany, CA HJ Andrews Forest Welcome, Barbara Bond, Oregon State University, Corvallis, OR Keynote Speakers: Tom Spies, USDA Forest Service and Oregon State University, Corvallis, OR A legacy of ecological research in the western Cascades, Oregon Kelly Redmond, Desert Research Institute, Reno, NV Weather & climate in the West since MtnClim 2008 TUESDAY, JUNE 8 6:30am Breakfast, Cafeteria 8:00 MtnClim Introduction & Objectives, Conference Hall Connie Millar, USDA Forest Service, Albany, CA 8:15 Special Session: High-Resolution Climate Monitoring and Modeling Moderator, Lisa Graumlich 8:15 Chris Daly, Oregon State University, Corvallis, OR Historical relationships between the spatial and temporal patterns of climate: Implications for mapping the future 8:45am Phil Duffy, Climate Central, Palo Alto CA Challenges in simulating climate change in mountain regions 9:15 Christina Tague, Bren School of Geography, UCSB, Santa Barbara, CA Implications of hillslope-scale climate variation for estimating eco-hydrologic responses to warming 9:45 Break 10:15 Levi Brekke, Bureau of Reclamation, Denver, CO Climate change impacts on water supply predictability 10:45 Paul Neiman, NOAA, Boulder, CO Landfalling impacts of atmospheric rivers: From extreme events to long-term consequences 11:15 Mike Dettinger, USGS, Scripps Institution of Oceanography, UCSD, La Jolla, CA Constructing ARkStorm--An extreme storm scenario for emergency preparedness in California 11:45 Session on Mountain Geomorphology and Climate Moderator, Mike Dettinger, USGS, Scripps Institution of Oceanography, UCSD, La Jolla, CA Bodo Bookhagen, UCSB, Santa Barbara, CA Climate variability and mass-transport processes in the Himalaya 12:15pm Lunch, Cafeteria 1:30 Afternoon Sessions, Conference Hall Moderator, Henry Diaz, NOAA, Boulder, CO Special Session: Machida Session on Risk, Communicating Science, Policy & Uncertainties 1:30 Michele Wood, California State University, Fullerton, CA Motivating public readiness for disasters: Research findings and evidence-based recommendations for practice 2:00 Richard Murnane, Bermuda Biological Stn of Ocean Science, Garrett Park, MD Dealing with risk: A view from the world of catastrophe risk modeling and insurance 2:30 Gregg Garfin, Institute of the Environment, University of Arizona, Tucson, AZ A plausible range: Some observations on how resource managers are tackling climate change uncertainties 3:00 Break 3:30pm Madeleine Nash, Independent Journalist, San Francisco, CA Who's who and what's what? Threading one's way through the maze of new media 4:00 Tim Brown, Desert Research Institute, Reno, NV The risk of communicating science to wildfire managers 4:30 Greg Greenwood, Mountain Research Initiative, University of Bern, Switzerland, Lessons learned on communications from six years of Mountain Research Initiative 5:00 Tour of HJA Compound & Environs (Debris Flume, Meteorological Station, Research) Mark Schulze, Oregon State University, HJ Andrews Forest 6:30 Dinner, Cafeteria 7:30 Evening Speaker, Conference Hall, Moderator, Connie Millar Fred Swanson, Oregon State University and USDA Forest Service, PNW Research Station, Corvallis, OR History and legacy research of the HJ Andrews Forest WEDNESDAY JUNE 9 6:30am Breakfast, Cafeteria 8:00 Contributed Session 1, Conference Hall Moderator, Dave Peterson, USDA Forest Service, PNW Research Station, Seattle, WA 8:00 Jim Miller, Rutgers University, New Brunswick, NJ Enhanced temperature increases in high-altitude regions 8:25 Imitaz Rangwala, NOAA, ESRL, Boulder, CO Examining climate change between the late 20th and mid 21st century in Colorado’s San Juan Mountains from high-resolution climate models 8:50 Alan Hamlet, University of Washington, Seattle, WA Responding to evolving stakeholder needs for 21st century hydrologic scenarios: An overview of the Columbia Basin Climate Scenarios Project 9:15 Gordon Grant, USDA Forest Service, PNW Research Station, Corvallis, OR Streamflow response to climate warming in mountain regions: Integrating the effects of snowpack and groundwater dynamics 9:40 Break 10:10 Contributed Session 2, Conference Hall Moderator, Nate Stephenson, USGS, Sequoia-Kings Canyon Field Station, Three Rivers, CA 10:10am Ryan MacDonald, University of Lethbridge, Alberta Canada Stream temperature response to environmental change 10:35 Cody Routson, University of Arizona, Tucson, AZ Characterizing 2000 years of high-elevation climate variability in the south San Juan Mountains, CO 11:00 Jeremy Littell, University of Washington, Seattle, WA In pursuit of better models of the relationship between climate and fire: The role of water balance in area burned in the Pacific Northwest 11:25 Kathryn Thomas, USGS, Southwest Biological Center, Tucson, AZ The USA-National Phenology Network: Tracking the phenological response of plants, animals, and landscapes across the nation 11:50 Lunch & Free Time 2:00pm Contributed Session 3 Moderator, Dominique Bachelet, Oregon State University, Corvallis, OR 2:00 Louis Scuderi, University of New Mexico, Albuquerque, NM Recent enhanced tree growth at upper altitude sites in the western United States: Links to water-use efficiency 2:25 Julia Jones, Oregon State University, Corvallis, OR What we know about how climate change is affecting physical, biological, and social systems in and near the Andrews Forest, Oregon 2:50 Harold Zald, Oregon State University, Corvallis, OR Multiscale climatic, topographic, and biotic controls of tree invasion in a subalpine parkland landscape, Jefferson Park, Oregon Cascades, USA 3:15 Chris Dolanc, University of California, Davis, CA Widespread shifts in stand structure of subalpine conifers of the central Sierra Nevada over the last 75 years 3:40 Stu Weiss, Creekside Center for Earth Observation, Menlo Park, CA From butterflies to bristlecones: Microclimatic and topoclimatic range adjustments as a foundation for conservation in a changing macroclimate 4:05 Break 4:30 Demonstration, Conference Hall Moderator, Connie Millar Dominique Bachelet, Conservation Biology Institute, Oregon State University, Corvallis, OR Data Basin Climate Center 6:00 Dinner, Cafeteria 7:30pm Poster Session with Machida Awards to Best Student Posters, Classroom Oral presentation in Conference Hall: Wolf Berger, Scripps Institution of Oceanography, UCSD, La Jolla, CA A. E. Douglass and the search for solar cycles in tree rings THURSDAY, JUNE 10 6:30am Breakfast, Cafeteria 8:00 Early-Career Scientists Session Conveners: Andy Bunn (Western Washington University, Bellingham, WA), Ryan MacDonald (University of Lethbridge, Alberta, Canada), Christina Tague (University of California Santa Barbara, Santa Barbara, CA) 8:00 Todd Lookingbill, Dept. of Geography and Environment, Univ. of Richmond, VA Life on the edge: Monitoring forest community ecotones in a changing climate 8:25 Sarah Boon, Dept Geography, University of Lethbridge, Lethbridge, AB, Canada Forest disturbance in mountain environments: Hydrologic impacts of increasing landscape heterogeneity 8:50 Phil van Mantgem, USGS, Western Ecological Research Ctr, Arcata, CA Tree mortality, climatic change and the future of forests in the western United States 9:15 Rob Klinger, USGS, Yosemite Field Stn, Bishop, CA A mammal’s take on the Rapture Hypothesis, Jacob’s Ladder, and other notions of doom, gloom, and uniform change in alpine ecosystems 9:40 Break 10:10 Contributed Session 4 Moderator, Greg Greenwood, Mountain Research Initiative, Bern, Switzerland 10:10 Janneke HilleRisLambers, University of Washington, Seattle, WA The heat is on: The impacts of climate change on species distribution 10:35 Karen Pope, USDA Forest Service, PSW Research Station, Arcata, CA Interactive impacts of a fungal pathogen and temperature on amphibians in the mountains of northern California 11:00 Jennifer Davison (presented by Lisa Graumlich), Univ. of Arizona, Tucson, AZ Views from climate space reveal missing assets in conservation portfolios and prioritize for building adaptive capacity 11:25 Rebecca Kennedy, USDA Forest Service, PNW Research Station, Corvallis, OR Assessing potential tradeoffs in ecosystem services with climate change and fire management in a mountainous landscape on the Olympic Peninsula, Washington, USA 11:50 Concluding Remarks 12:00 MtnClim Adjourns with Lunch (Sandwich Bar; eat onsite or take to-go)