Diffusion
IntroducMon:
Theglobalenergylandscapeisundertakingahugechange,asrenewableenergymarketsmature,thetradi9onalenergystructure
increasinglyshi:stowardsaninnova9ondrivenmarkets.
Whilesolarenergyleadsthegrowthofrenewableenergyshare,thisprojectfocusthestudyonthewindenergyinnova9on
development,whichisbelievedhavegainedanaccelera9ngmomentuminbothdiffusionandadop9on.
LiBleliteratureshavereviewedfactorsthatdrivethistransi9on,nordidquan9ta9veevidenceisusedtosupportfindingsinthisfield.
•
•
•
Aim:Toiden9fyandtestthedeterminantsofwindenergydiffusionandadop9onviareviewingliteraturesandestablishingregression
models,comparisonsaremadeacross8differentcountries,includingChina,Denmark,France,Germany,India,Spain,UnitedKingdomsand
UnitedStates.
KeyFacts:
Percentageofelectricitygeneratedbywindenergy
outoftotalenergy(kilowaYhours)
Ques9onsworthasking:
•  Whysomecountrieswithaveryhighpropor9onofwindenergyproduc9on(China)hasalowshare
ofwindenergyusage(measuredinelectricitygeneratedbywindenergy)?
•  Withsimilarsuppor9ngpolicies,thelevelofadop9onofwindenergyvaryfromcountriesto
countries,why?
•  Itisregardedthatwindenergyalongwithotherrenewableenergy
WorldCrudeoilprices1980-2012
innova9onassupplementstothecrudeoil.However,asthecrudeoil
pricesfluctuatedinthepastyears,especiallytherecentdownfallinthe
•  Unsurprisingly,theshare
globalmarket,liBleimpactwasseenonthelevelofwindenergy
ofwindenergyasa
genera9on,theshareevengrowinthelatest2014report.
propor9onoftotal
•  Windenergyisnotevenlydistributedaroundtheworld,around70%of
energyproduc9oninthe
theworld-widewindenergycapacitywasinstalledinEurope,afurther
worldleadingproducers
19%inNorthAmericaand9%intherestofthearea.
hasincreased
•  Determinantsthatthisprojectfocusedonincluding:demandsideof
WorldCumulaMveWindPowerInstalledCapacity
1980-2012
drama9callyoverthelast
domes9cmarket,supplyside,policymix,technologicalcapacity,market
decadeNo9ceably,China
structureormarketcompe99on,installedcapacityandinstallingcosts.
hasexperiencedasteady
•  Whilesomecountriesareenjoyinganinfla9ngdemandduetolowprices
strideandbecamethe
(e.gChina),theyalsofacechallengesonthequalita9vesides,where
leadingworldwind
developedworlddominatetheinnova9onandadvancementofenergy
energyproduc9onin
developmentandmassivefundsinvestmentonthecorresponding
2009.
educa9on.
0.4
0.35
percentage
0.3
0.25
0.2
0.15
0.1
0.05
0
China
Germany
Denmark
Japan
France
Spain
120.00
USDperbarrel
100.00
80.00
60.00
40.00
20.00
0.00
year
$
300000
250000
200000
150000
100000
Methodology:
percentageofcapacity
percentageofcapacity
0.2
0.1
China'swindcapacityasapercentageof
worldwindcapacity
0.3
0.25
0.2
0.15
0.1
0.05
0
-0.051970
-0.1
1980
1990
2000
2010
2020
2010
2020
year
0
1970
-0.1
1980
1990
2000
2010
2020
year
GDPVsshare
10000000
0.3
0.25
SW
2012
•  Byusingregressionanalysis,theproject
testedanumberoffactorsandtheir
Windcapacityasapercentageof
rela9onswithwindenergyadop9on
worldwindcapacity
anddiffusion(measuredusingwind
energycapacityandtheamountof
electricitygenerated).
GDP(million)
SW;GDP
•  Accordingtotheresults,itisfoundthat
governmentpoliciesandtechnology
capacityarethetwomaindrivers
•  Buttherearefactorsthatdon’tbelong
toanycategories(withR2slightly
SW;electricitypowerconsump9on
SW;Popula9on
skewedorfallenintotheneutrality
category),theseincludeelectricity
prices,solarpanelproduc9on,and
surprisinglytransac9oncostinvolvedin
windturbinesexporta9on.
SW:representstheshareofwindcapacityoutoftheworldwindinstalledcapacity
0.3
0.2
2010
2008
2006
Cumula9veInstalledCapacity
2004
2002
2000
1998
1996
1994
1992
1990
1988
1986
1984
1982
0
1980
50000
8000000
6000000
4000000
2000000
0
-20000001970
0.15
0.1
1980
GDP(million)
-0.05 0
2000
year
0.05
0
1990
Linear(GDP(million))
2000000 4000000 6000000 8000000 10000000
GDP
0.3
0.3
0.25
0.2
SW
SW
0.2
0.1
0.1
0.05
0
0
-0.1
0.15
500
1000
popula9on
1500
0
-0.05 0
1,000,000 2,000,000 3,000,000 4,000,000 5,000,000
electricitypowerconsump9on
LimitaMon:
•  Datalimita9on:Datausedrange
from1980to2012,missingdata
incountriessuchasGermany
underminedtheconsistencyof
theanalysis.
•  Approxima9onofanalysis:
certaindeterminantsare
measuredusingapproxima9on
data,suchaswindenergy
capacityismeasuredonlybased
onitsgenera9onofelectricity,
whereaswindenergyisalso
widelyusedinagriculture,but
dataisnotreadilyavailable
whichcouldcauseinaccuracy.
Conclusion:
Accordingtotheresearch,governmentpoliciesandtechnologycapacityisbyfar2ofthemost
dominantfactorsthatinfluencewindenergyadop9onanddiffusion.However,theseconclusionsare
drawnwiththeabsenceofreal-worldprac9ce.Tosummariseapar9cularcountry,condi9onsshould
bebroughtintospecificcontext.MoremethodologysuchassurveyandinterviewswouldbeabeBer
waytosupportthevalidityofconclusionsfromthisproject,butwillconsumemorefundsand9me.
Reference:
StonemanandBams9(1998),Saiduret
al(2010),Keller(2004),Lacerdaand
VanDenBergh(2014),Diaz-Rainey
(2010).
TongWu,WarwickBusinessSchool,UniversityofWarwick,GibbetHillRd,Coventry,CV47AL,Contact:t.wu@warwick.ac.uk,Supervisor:ProfessorGiulianaBaLsM