Climate Change
Re-Framing Resource Management
Strategies
Connie Millar
USDA Forest Service
Pacific Southwest Research Station
Sierra Nevada Research Center
Albany and Lee Vining, CA
cmillar@fs.fed.us
Forests of the Future
Embracing Change
Accept Uncertainty Yet Certain Change
as Premises for Decision-Making
Practice ecological management outside the box
- existing management paradigms have limited value
Manage for desired future processes
- ecosystem services writ large
TOOLBOX APPROACH
˜
No single solution fits all cases
˜
Range of options for short & long term
˜
Mix & match tools
˜
Be flexible, experimental (learn-as-you-go),
innovative, bridges kept intact, small
steps, risk-taking, course-correcting
Climate and Vegetation models:
Healthy skepticism: Cannot predict the future at
accuracy needed by managers
Æ “eggs in one basket” vs “bet-hedging” strategies
Confronting Climate Change
I. Adaptation Strategies
Assist resources & ecosystems to
accommodate changes imposed by climate
II. Mitigation Strategies
Assist forests to reduce human effects
on climate by sequestering CO2 and
reducing greenhouse gas emissions
Complementary
Conflicting
Strategic & Tactical: “5-R + 1” Strategies
Adaptation
Adjustments made to changing environments that
exploit beneficial opportunities or moderate negative effects
Cultural
-U.S Climate Change Science Program, 2007
How humans prepare and accommodate themselves & their societies to
new conditions brought by climate change
Invest in hurricane insurance
Hurricane Katrina:
$81.2 billion total
damages
Re-schedule Chicago marathons
“’Brutally hot day’
brings 30th Chicago
marathon to an early
end…” 10/8/07
Expand electric & medical capacity
to handle heat waves
35,000 deaths,
Europe, 8/03
Construct bridges to
withstand sea-level rise
Confederation Bridge, Canada
Constructed 1m higher
Adaptation
Ecological (stewardship responsibilities)
How managers prepare and accommodate natural resources &
ecosystems to new conditions brought by climate change
PIKA
’s
“It ting
get in
hot e”
her
For Immediate Release, August 21, 2007
Endangered Species Act Protection Sought for American Pika:
High-elevation Rabbit Relative Could Become First Animal Driven
Extinct by Global Warming
Pine invasion, Tuolumne Mdws
Subalpine forest mortality
1. Increase Resistance to Change
“Homeland Security Approach”
Defend high-value resources
against change
BC Forest Service
BC: lodgepole pine &
mountain pine beetle
*Adaptation strategy*
Resisting the effects of climate change
might be possible only in the short term
Pinyon pine expansion in the Great Basin
*Resist projects that may fail or are
inappropriate under future climates
Re-introducing salmon into
warming rivers
Be Aware of “Paddling
Upstream” Decisions
*Adaptation strategy*
2. Promote Resilience to Change
“Health-Care Approach”
• Improve the capacity of systems to return to prior
•
conditions after disturbance
Minimize stress; promote health, alternatives, & surplus
Mgmt Examples
- Thin Stands
- Prescribe Fires
- Stock Seed Banks
- Make Snow at Ski Areas
- Increase TES Population Sizes
*Adaptation strategy*
3. Enable Ecosystems to Respond to
Change “Beginner’s Mind Approach”
* Assist Ecosystems to Follow Changing Climates
Use climate projections at coarse scale to plan options
(assisted migration; “off-site” plantations)
Beware:
“Eggs-in–One-Basket”
*Adaptation strategy*
* Anticipate and Plan for Associated Risks
Forest Dieback, Fires in Subalpine Forests; Off-Season & YearRound Fires, Extreme Wind and Flood Events…
3-Sisters Wilderness, OR
Yosemite Valley
Flood, May 2005
Derecho Event, MN
Cascade Crest Complex, OR
Fire at Big Bear Mtn
* Experiment Creatively & Learn From Experiments
1. Use Redundancy
2. Relax Genetic Management
Guidelines
Spread-the-risk
and bet-hedging
approaches
* Increase Diversity
In the forest…
* Promote Connected Landscapes
-
Larger mgmt units; land trades
Lower fragmentation
Higher mgmt decision flexibility
Continuous riparian zones
In resort communities…
4. Realign Conditions to Current Dynamics
“Auto Mechanic’s Approach”
For systems far out of the range of natural variability
this may be a useful restoration approach
“Historic range of variability”
(pre-settlement conditions) as
management target will mostly
be inappropriate
DWP diversions
began
*Adaptation strategy*
Mono Lake, CA
Aquatic Ecosystem
5. Reduce Greenhouse Gases &
Reduce Ecological Footprint
“Good Samaritan Approach”
• Forestry Sector
Sequester Carbon
˜ Afforest non-forest areas
˜ Manage forest structure
Reduce Emissions
˜ Reduce severe wildfire
˜ Reduce deforestation
nk?
i
s
or
Energy Sector –
e
c
r
u
so
t
e
Conservation & Alternative Energy
N
Barnett
*Mitigation strategy*
•
Policy & Carbon Management, California-Style
AB-32, The California Global-Warming Solutions Act
Signed 27 September 2007 by Governor Schwarzenegger
• Mandates statewide reduction of greenhouse gases
to 1990 levels by 2020
• Forestry sector could provide ~18% of needed
reduction in total tons carbon
Sources of Potential
Reductions of
187.2MMT CO2 by
2020
EARLY ACTIONS
•USFS (PSW) enrolled in the CA Carbon Action Registry
-- 1st federal agency on Registry
-- registering non-biologics first
•USFS, CA Dept Forestry & forest industry developing
forestry protocols (= biologics)
CHALLENGES
Accounting
--Baseline?
--Marginality?
--Reversibility?
--Certification?
--Life-cycle analysis?
--Carbon ownership?
--Role Public:Private?
--Inventory?
Potential contributions by forestry activity
Overall: Setting Priorities
Management
Decisions
Do Nothing:
No Advance Action
Be Proactive:
Act in Advance
React after Disturbance
or Extreme Events
Criteria to Prioritize Key Vulnerabilities
a. Magnitude (population impacted, $$, extinctions)
b. Timing (sooner vs later; sudden vs gradual)
c. Persistence/Reversibility (duration, recurrence)
d. Potential for Adaptation (knowledge, skills,
resources, $$)
e. Distributional Aspects (geographic breadth of
impacts)
f. Likelihood of Impacts (scientific certainty)
g. Importance of the System at risk
-- Intergovernmental Panel on Climate
Change, Working Group II, 2007
Tiered Approaches to Priority Setting
From Amy Luers & Susi Moser, 2005
I. “No Regrets” - Actions that provide benefits in current
and future climate conditions even if no climate change occurs
II. “Low Regrets” - Actions that provide important
benefits at relatively little additional cost or risk
III.“Win-Win” - Actions that reduce the impacts of climate
change while providing other benefits
Resource Examples:
I. Fuel-reduction projects
II. Extended employment seasons for fire-fighters
III. Riparian & endangered species enhancement projects
Triage Approaches to Priority-Setting
triare (Fr): to sort
TRIAGE Categories:
Red
Urgent, treatable:
immediate priority
Yellow Mid urgency; soon
to become red
Green Stable, low priority
Black
Condor:
Red or
Black?
No-Denial:
Urgent, untreatable
with available resources:
Æ no action
*************************
Re-assess & re-sort
Æ Most gain through informed acknowledgment that some things must be foregone
Managing In The Face of Change
A Toolbox of Options, “5R + 1”
Adaptation Strategies
*Create Resistance
*Increase Resilience
*Allow Forests to Respond
*Realign Highly Altered Ecosystems
Mitigation Strategies
*Reduce Greenhouse Gases & Ecologic Footprint
Overall
*Set Priorities (Tiered,Triage,Vulnerabilities)