Climate Change
Re-Framing Resource Management
Strategies
Connie Millar
USDA Forest Service
Pacific Southwest Research Station
Sierra Nevada Research Center
Albany and Lee Vining, CA
cmillar@fs.fed.us
Forests of the Future
Embracing Change
Accept Uncertainty Yet Certain Change
as Premises for Decision-Making
Practice ecological management outside the box
- existing management paradigms have limited value
Manage for desired future processes
- ecosystem services writ large
TOOLBOX APPROACH
˜
No single solution fits all cases
˜
Range of options for short & long term
˜
Mix & match tools
˜
Be flexible, experimental (learn-as-you-go),
innovative, bridges kept intact, small
steps, risk-taking, course-correcting
Climate and Vegetation models:
Healthy skepticism: Cannot predict the future at
accuracy needed by managers
Æ “eggs in one basket” vs “bet-hedging” strategies
Confronting Climate Change
I. Adaptation Strategies
Assist resources & ecosystems to
accommodate changes imposed by climate
II. Mitigation Strategies
Assist forests to reduce human effects
on climate by sequestering CO2 and
reducing greenhouse gas emissions
Complementary
Conflicting
Strategic & Tactical: “5-R + 1” Strategies
1. Increase Resistance to Change
“Homeland Security Approach”
Defend high-value resources
against change
BC Forest Service
BC: lodgepole pine &
mountain pine beetle
*Adaptation strategy*
Resisting the effects of climate change
might be possible only in the short term
Pinyon pine expansion in the Great Basin
*Resist projects that may fail or are
inappropriate under future climates
Re-introducing salmon into
warming rivers
Be Aware of “Paddling
Upstream” Decisions
*Adaptation strategy*
2. Promote Resilience to Change
“Health-Care Approach”
• Improve the capacity of ecosystems to return to prior
•
conditions after disturbance
Minimize stress; promote health, alternatives, & surplus
Mgmt Examples
- Thin Stands
- Prescribe Fires
- Stock Seed Banks
- Make Snow at Ski Areas
- Increase TES Population Sizes
*Adaptation strategy*
3. Enable Ecosystems to Respond to
Change “Beginner’s Mind Approach”
* Assist Ecosystems to Follow Changing Climates
Use climate projections at coarse scale to plan options
(assisted migration; “off-site” plantations)
Beware:
“Eggs-in–One-Basket”
*Adaptation strategy*
* Anticipate and Plan for Associated Risks
Forest Dieback, Fires in Subalpine Forests; Off-Season & YearRound Fires, Extreme Wind and Flood Events…
3-Sisters Wilderness, OR
Yosemite Valley
Flood, May 2005
Derecho Event, MN
Cascade Crest Complex, OR
Fire at Big Bear Mtn
* Experiment Creatively & Learn From Experiments
1. Use Redundancy
2. Relax Genetic Management
Guidelines
Spread-the-risk
and bet-hedging
approaches
* Increase Diversity
In the forest…
* Promote Connected Landscapes
-
Larger mgmt units; land trades
Lower fragmentation
Higher mgmt decision flexibility
Continuous riparian zones
In resort communities…
4. Realign Conditions to Current Dynamics
“Auto Mechanic’s Approach”
For systems far out of the range of natural variability
this may be a useful restoration approach
“Historic range of variability”
(pre-settlement conditions) as
management target will mostly
be inappropriate
DWP diversions
began
*Adaptation strategy*
Mono Lake, CA
Aquatic Ecosystem
5. Reduce Greenhouse Gases &
Reduce Ecological Footprint
“Good Samaritan Approach”
• Forestry Sector
Sequester Carbon
˜ Afforest non-forest areas
˜ Manage forest structure
Reduce Emissions
˜ Reduce severe wildfire
˜ Reduce deforestation
nk?
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or
Energy Sector –
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Conservation & Alternative Energy
N
Barnett
*Mitigation strategy*
•
Overall: Setting Priorities
Management
Decisions
Do Nothing:
No Advance Action
Be Proactive:
Act in Advance
React after Disturbance
or Extreme Events
Tiered Approaches to Priority Setting
From Amy Luers & Susi Moser, 2005
I. “No Regrets” - Actions that provide benefits in current
and future climate conditions even if no climate change occurs
II. “Low Regrets” - Actions that provide important
benefits at relatively little additional cost or risk
III.“Win-Win” - Actions that reduce the impacts of climate
change while providing other benefits
Resource Examples:
I. Fuel-reduction projects
II. Extended employment seasons for fire-fighters
III. Riparian & endangered species enhancement projects
Triage Approaches to Priority-Setting
triare (Fr): to sort
TRIAGE Categories:
Red
Urgent, treatable:
immediate priority
Yellow Mid urgency; soon
to become red
Green Stable, low priority
Black
Condor:
Red or
Black?
No-Denial:
Urgent, untreatable
with available resources:
Æ no action
*************************
Re-assess & re-sort
Æ Most gain through informed acknowledgment that some things must be foregone
Managing In The Face of Change
A Toolbox of Options, “5R + 1”
Adaptation Strategies
*Create Resistance
*Increase Resilience
*Allow Forests to Respond
*Realign Highly Altered Ecosystems
Mitigation Strategies
*Reduce Greenhouse Gases & Ecologic Footprint
Overall
*Set Priorities (Tiered,Triage,Vulnerabilities)
The Tahoe National Forest
California
A Case Study in Adaptation Options for
Climate-Sensitive Ecosystems and Resources
Climate Change Science Program
Synthesis & Adaptation Product 4.4
Forest Chapter
The Tahoe National Forest, Northern Sierra Nevada
The Tahoe National Forest
- Placer, Plumas, Sierra, Yuba Counties
- 5 Ranger Districts:
Downieville, Foresthill, Nevada City,
Sierraville, Truckee
-794,374 acres national forestland; 28k ac
in LTBMU
- 381,161 acres private land in
“checkerboard” pattern
- 1200’ to >9000’ elevation
Elevational Gradient of Forest Types
…To higher true fir forests…
…Through the broad
& valuable mixed
conifer zone
From low westside
pine & hardwood…
And higher…
The Tahoe NF includes
subalpine & alpine ecosystems
and drier eastside
forests
1. Tahoe National Forest Land and
Resource Management Plan 1990
Tiered to Sierra Nevada Forest Plan Amendment
& Herger-Feinstein QLG Recovery Act (S’ville RD)
Mission:
* Serve as the public’s steward of the land and manage the
Forest’s resources for the benefit of all American people
* Provide for needs of current and future generations
* Dedicated to the land, the public, safety, and efficiency
2. Herger-Feinstein Quincy Library Group
Forest Recovery Act Pilot Project October 1998
Pertains to Plumas and Lassen NFs and Sierraville RD of the
Tahoe NF
“…to develop a resource management program that
promotes ecologic and economic health for certain Federal
lands and communities in the Sierra Nevada area“
Develops:
* Defensible Fuel Profile Zones
* Group & Individual Tree Selection Uneven Aged Mgmt
* Riparian Management (wide zones)
Æ Most Cost Effective Methods Used
Tahoe Management Context & Goals
3. Sierra Nevada Forest Plan & Amendment
January 2004
“…to improve protection of old forests, wildlife habitats, watersheds and
communities in the Sierra Nevada and Modoc Plateau”
11 national forests, 11.5 million acres, 6200 appeals
*Adaptive Management – Tahoe is an AM Project site
“Current” Climate
Mediterranean Regime
- Long warm, dry summers
- Cool, wet winters
- Ave annual precip
50” at W boundary
80” 6,000’ westside
35” CA/NV stateline
20” at E boundary
- Precip Nov-May; snow
above 5,000’ westside and
eastside
Sierra Nevada temperature increased ~ 2°C in the 20th
century, and six multi-year droughts occurred
Millar et al. 2004
Snowpacks and streamflow declined
in the past 50 years
Peak snowpacks
30+ days earlier
1950-2000
Stewart et al 2003
Hamlet et al 2004
Peak Streamflows:
March +, June 1948-2002
Current Stressors of Concern
Fire &
Fuels
Annual Western U.S. Area Burned
Westerling 2004
1,800,000
1,600,000
1,400,000
hectares
1,200,000
1,000,000
800,000
600,000
400,000
200,000
0
1910
1920
1930
1940
1950
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
Drought-Related Forest Mortality
periodic, multi-year events
Historically low-elevation pine, clustered mortality
Loss of Old-Growth Habitat for Biodiversity
Loss of Aquatic, Riparian,
& Meadow Habitat
Challenge of Urban-Wildland Interface
* Fire Risk & Protection
* Smoke Constraints
* Invasive Species
* Fragmentation &
Habitat Conversion
Anticipated Future Climate -- 2100
Temperature
Annual +2.8 to +5.3°C
Summer +2.1 to +8.3°C
Winter +2.2 to +4.0°C
Precipitation
Annual
+38 to -157 mm
Summer
+4 to -46 mm
Winter
+13 to -93 mm
Hayhoe et al. 2004.
PNAS
Losses of Water in Snow (Snow Water Equivalent, SWE)
Change in April 1 Snowpack SWE
Overall
1000-2000m
2000-3000m
-29 to -89%
-65 to -97%
-22 to -93%
Hayhoe et al. 2004. PNAS
Statewide Changes in Vegetation Communities
ASF**
ECF
MEF**
MEW
ASF
ECF
MEF
MEW
GRS
SHB
DES
Alpine/Sualpine Forest
Evergreen Conifer Forest
Mixed Evergreen Forest
Mixed Evergreen Woodland
Grassland
Shrubland
Desert
GRS
SHB
** ASF: - 75 to -90%
** MEF: +70 to +120%
DES
Hayhoe et al. 2004. PNAS
New or Compounded Stresses
under Changing Climates
Tahoe National Forest
** Increased fuel build-up
** Longer hotter summers, longer fire seasons
** Severe fires any year, not just “fire years”
** Increased severe fire risk in low-mid elev’s
** High-elevation severe fires
New or Compounded Stresses
under Changing Climates
** Loss of old-growth habitats incl PACs
** True-fir zone mortality = more
single-tree rather than clustered death
** Decreased groundwater storage capacity
** Decreased amt of wet mdw/fens & loss of
wetland habitat for biodiversity
** Thresholds surpassed; novel conditions
(global-warming-style droughts)
Management Needed for Changing Climates
1.Vastly Increase Thinning & Fuel Reduction
Projects
* Post-fire salvage capacity * Release from diameter-limited harvest
* Actively manage PACs
* Funds to support thinning
“SNFPA- & NEPAconstraints limit
appropriate actions”
- Timing
- Staff
- Money
- PACs
- Access
2. Improve Economic Capacity & Social
Willingness to Thin
“Bring back the biomass/cogeneration plants”
40 biomass
plants lost
Drives the capacity
to treat vast acreages
3. Plan at Whole Ecosystem/Landscape Scale
“Must take a big-picture view”
“Keep conifers, TES species, salmon in the Sierra Nevada,
not necessarily in their current small management units”
4. Set Priorities & Practice Triage
“Can’t do it all”
5. Rethink Reforestation Capacities
& Approaches
“ We need approval to use herbicides, plant new species
mixes, stock the seed bank, and keep the nurseries viable”
* Build in structural diversity
6. Aggressively Protect Watersheds
“In addition to lowering fire risk , we could
reduce road density and road permeability,
and consider ‘snowpack-retention’ harvests”
7. Rethink Meadow Restoration
“Restoring wet meadows
under warming &
drying conditions may
not make sense”
Intensive “plug & pond”
treatment is current approach
8. Rethink Salmon Restoration
“Warmer temperatures mean warmer waters. Tahoe NF
rivers may not support reintroduced salmon in the future”
Chinook Salmon
current dist: dotted lines
historic dist: hvy lines
Summary Phase I Tahoe NF
* Existing stresses compounded + new stresses
* Conventional approaches would work if approved
* New approaches needed for novel stresses
Attitude toward Uncertainty:
Uncertain how significant climate change impacts
will be on exacerbating existing stresses and
catalyzing new ones.
Tahoe National Forest , Phase II
Adaptation Case Study
A Toolkit for Adapting to Climate Change
on Western National Forests:
Incorporating Climate into Resource
Management and Planning
Principal Investigators: C. MILLAR, L. JOYCE, R. NEILSON, D.
PETERSON
SHARON YEH
PACIFIC SOUTHWEST RESEARCH
STATION
CAROL KENNEDY
TAHOE NATIONAL FOREST
Purpose
Incorporate climate
change considerations
into decision making
process by developing
decision support tools
Audience
NFS land managers on multiple levels
Toolkit will be broadly relevant to other managers, policy
makers, and scientists
Proposal Objectives
1.
2.
3.
4.
Develop adaptation management
resource materials in multiple formats
Conduct replicate case studies on
three national forests
Extend case-study results for broader
application across diverse landscapes
and ownerships
Intensively develop USFS Climate
Change Resource Center (CCRC)
website
Case Study: Step 1
Rapid Audit of Existing Projects
Purpose - Screen
proposed actions
for climate change
implications
Forest plans and
individual projects
Create and
evaluate process
for audit
Case Study: Step 2
Compatibility of Management Treatments
Evaluate and revise existing management
approaches for their capacity to incorporate
climate change adaptation
Focus on 3-4 strategies currently used on the
Tahoe National Forest
•
Examples: Threatened and Endangered species
management, fuel treatments, watershed management,
restoration based on historical references
Select 2-3 proactive climate strategies for their
potential to address climate change
•
Examples: Assisted migration, post-disturbance
revegetation, riparian corridor development
Case Study: Step 3
Scenario Exercises
Working groups will explore series of “what it” scenarios to
explore alternative management strategies
Will apply fine scale climate models when available
Case Study: Step 4
Uncertainty Approaches
Three broad categories of
management actions in response to
risk
1. No action - follow original project plan
2. Contingency planning - develop response
strategy
3. Anticipatory and proactive strategies- curtail
or diminish potential impacts. Optimizes
chances of achieving management goals.
Case Study: Step 5
Land Management Plan Revision and Process
Adapt and interweave
proposed evaluation tools
into the Tahoe NF LMP
revision process.
Comprehensive
Evaluation Report (CER)