Adapting to Climate Change
in Olympic National Forest
Dave Peterson – PNW Station
Kathy O’Halloran – Olympic NF
Olympic National Forest – In Brief
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Linda Brubaker, Chris Earle (UW)
630,000 acres
High biological diversity
Emphasis on water, vegetation management,
fisheries, wildlife
A “restoration forest” (former focus on timber
production)
Climate Change Focus Group
Research-management partnership
- Olympic NF natural resources staff
- PNW Station
- Univ. Washington Climate Impacts Group
Step 1 – Establish biosocial and
management context
Step 2 – Determine adaptation concerns
and strategies
Linda Brubaker, Chris Earle (UW)
Climate Change Focus Group -Biosocial and management context
One day of presentations and discussion:
• Environmental context – current climate,
ecological conditions, ecosystem services
• Effects of climatic variability and change on
natural resources – scientific basis
Linda Brubaker, Chris Earle (UW)
Climate Change Focus Group -Adaptation concerns and strategies
One day of knowledge elicitation focused on
answering questions:
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Linda Brubaker, Chris Earle (UW)
What are priorities for long-term resource management (>50
years)? How can climate change be integrated in planning at
this time scale?
What is the policy and regulatory environment in which
management and planning are currently done?
What are the biggest concerns and ecological/social
sensitivities in a changing climate?
Which management strategies can be used to adapt to
potentially rapid change in climate and resource conditions?
Which information and tools are needed to adequately
address the questions above?
Which aspects of the policy and regulatory environment affect
management that adapts to climate change?
Main Impact (I): Less Snow
Warmer temperatures contribute to more winter precipitation
falling as rain rather than snow, particularly in transient (midelevation) basins.
Changes in Simulated April 1 Snowpack for Washington
-26%
-35%
Main Impact (II): Altered Streamflow
• If more winter rain → higher winter streamflows
• Warmer temperatures → earlier snowmelt, shift in timing
of peak runoff
• Lower winter snowpack → lower spring and summer flows
Projected streamflow changes in the Quinault River
+3.6 to +5.4°F
(+2 to +3°C)
Main Impact (III):
Increased water loss
• Higher summer temperature
equates to lower soil
moisture.
• If summer precipitation does
not change, this means
increased water deficit for
plants.
• CO2 enrichment may affect
productivity and water use
efficiency, but it is unclear
how much and whether the
effect will be transient.
McCabe and Wolock (2002)
Implications: Area Burned
Standardized log10 Area Burned
Increased temperature without increased precipitation will
lead to more summers with fuel moisture favorable for
fire spread, higher fire frequency, and more area burned.
Dry, Warm
Wet, Cool
Standardized Mean summer PDSI
Littell (2006)
Implications: Tree growth
Hoh Watershed
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Dungeness Watershed
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Nakawatase and Peterson (2006)
Implications: Roads and Water
Photo: Don
• Flooding
– Increased risk of winter flooding in
mid- and low-elevation basins
• Flood events / sustained wet
weather
– Interactions with old road network
of logging roads.
– Impacts include mass wasting
and river re-channeling
– Sediment load to streams
negatively impacts anadromous
and resident fish by decreasing
spawning success
Photo: J.
Implications:
Anadromous and freshwater fish
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Salmon (and steelhead):
– Increased stress due to lower summer
and fall streamflow, warmer water
temperature, and increased potential for
winter flooding.
– Coastal and/or open ocean conditions
will respond to climate change too.
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Bull trout:
– Increased stress due to lower summer
and fall streamflow, warmer water
temperature, and increased potential for
winter flooding.
– Resident populations at risk due to
warming stream temperature and road
network influences on water quality.
Implications:
Recreation
• Recreation sites along
stream channels may be
vulnerable to flooding
– Increased cost of maintenance
of campgrounds near water.
– “Favorite” campsites may
need to be moved away from
the river – Browns Creek
campground
• Severe storms and blow
down
– Recent windstorms on the
Olympic have inundated trails
with blowdown trees in an
inventoried roadless area.
Photos: ONF
Management and Policy Environment
Northwest Forest Plan – good foundation, but
uncertainty remains about climate change
Current climate change objective at
Olympic NF: confer resilience by promoting
biodiversity and landscape diversity
Tools currently available:
• Aquatic restoration: minimize impact of
roads
• Forest management: selective thinning
• Treatment of invasive species
Linda Brubaker, Chris Earle (UW)
Current Adaptation Issues
• Education and awareness are needed – internal
and external
• Little scientific information on adaptation to
climate change
• Public acceptance of active management
• Tradeoffs between long-term goals and shortterm risks OR different mandates (e.g., road
rehabilitation vs. risk of sedimentation and
invasive species)
• Management context – lack of resources, lack of
climate change policy; planning horizon not
conducive to adaptive management
Linda Brubaker, Chris Earle (UW)
Adaptation strategy #1
Increase landscape diversity
Increase resilience at large scales
-- Treatments and spatial configurations
that minimize loss of large number of
structural and functional groups
Increase size of mgmt. units
-- Much larger treatments and
age/structural classes
Increase connectivity
Adaptation strategy #2
Maintain biological diversity
Modify genetic guidelines
Experiment with mixed
species, mixed genotypes
Identify species, populations,
and communities that are
sensitive to increased
disturbance
Adaptation strategy #3
Plan for post-disturbance management
Treat fire and other ecological
disturbance as normal,
periodic occurrences
Incorporate fire management
and other disturbance options
in land management
considerations
Adaptation strategy #4
Implement early detection / rapid response
Eliminate or control exotic species
Monitor post-disturbance
conditions, reduce fire-enhancing
species (e.g., cheatgrass)
Adaptation strategy #5
Manage for realistic outcomes
Identify key thresholds for
species and functions
Climate
Determine which thresholds will
be exceeded (e.g., salmon)
Prioritize projects with high probability
of success; abandon hopeless causes
Identify species and vegetation
structures tolerant of increased
disturbance
Temperature
Increase
Critical
Threshold
Climatic Variability
Time
Adaptation strategy #6
Incorporate climate change
in restoration
Reduce emphasis on historical
references
Reduce use of guidelines based
on static relationships (e.g., plant
associations)
Develop performance standards
that consider climate change in
restoration trajectories
Adaptation strategy #7
Develop climate-smart regulations, policies
Address regulatory issues
(e.g. Endangered Species Act)
Address policy issues
(e.g., historic range of variation)
Address process issues
(e.g., NEPA, public opposition)
Work with legislators and policy makers to raise
awareness; work with local stakeholders from
onset of projects
Adaptation strategy #8
Anticipate big surprises
Expect mega droughts, larger
fires, system collapses, and
species extirpations
Develop strategies to deal
with them
Finishing the job
• Additional work is needed to convert
the case study into an action plan
• Follow-up communication will ensure
that management needs are met
• Scientific documentation to support
adaptation strategies is critical
• Communicate the case study process
so others can emulate it
Linda Brubaker, Chris Earle (UW)
Keys for Success – It can be done
• Managers produce most of the
adaptation options
• Need strong research-management
collaboration
• Scientific documentation and sharing
of ideas will support management
• Need strong collaboration across
boundaries and institutions
Linda Brubaker, Chris Earle (UW)
Online resources
Univ. Washington Climate Impacts Group
http://www.cses.washington.edu/cig
USFS Climate Change Resource Center
http://www.fs.fed.us/ccrc
U.S. Climate Change Science Program
http://www.climatescience.gov
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
http://www.ipcc.ch
Linda Brubaker, Chris Earle (UW)