The MTNCLIM Year: Western Climate 2007-08
in Perspective
Kelly T. Redmond
Western Regional Climate Center
Desert Research Institute
Reno Nevada
Silverton, Colorado 9-12 June 2008
Photos: Larry Geddis, Erskine Wood
Spring 2007
June 2007
July 2007
August 2007
Summer 2007
Summer 2007
Global Sea Surface Temperature Departure from Average, 2007 Sep 30 thru Oct 06
NOAA Climate Diagnostics Center, ESRL
Redmond & Koch,
1991, updated.
Washington
Redmond &
Koch, 1991,
updated.
ENSO
Arizona
Central
Sierra
September 2007
October 2007
Water Year 2007
Oct 2006
Thru
Sep 2007
California Climate
Tracker
Water Year
Oct-Sep
Precip
South
Coastal
California
1895/96
thru
2006/07
2007 October 22 0000 GMT
20071022 MODIS
Los Angeles Times
2007 October 25
Number of U.S. Wildland Fires through December 28, 2007
(numbers after 1990 adjusted by NIFC 2007)
Number of Fires
250000
200000
150000
100000
50000
0
1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
Year
Western Regional Climate Center
Source: National Interagency Fire Center
www.nifc.gov/stats/wildlandfirestats.html
Acres burned U.S. Fires through December 28, 2007
Values after 1990 adjusted by NIFC
Number of acres
10000000
8000000
6000000
4000000
2000000
0
1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
Year
Western Regional Climate Center
Source: National Interagency Fire Center
www.nifc.gov/stats/wildlandfirestats.html
Global Sea Surface Temperature Departure from Average, 2007 Sep 30 thru Oct 06
NOAA Climate Diagnostics Center, ESRL
Arctic Sea Ice Extent Sept 16 2003
New York Times, 2007 Oct 1
Arctic Sea Ice Extent Sept 16 2004
New York Times, 2007 Oct 1
Arctic Sea Ice Extent Sept 16 2005
New York Times, 2007 Oct 1
Arctic Sea Ice Extent Sept 16 2006
New York Times, 2007 Oct 1
Arctic Sea Ice Extent Sept 16 2007
New York Times, 2007 Oct 1
Arctic Ocean Getting Warm; Seals Vanish And Icebergs Melt
(Associated Press)
The Arctic ocean is warming up, icebergs are growing scarcer and in some places the
seals are finding the waters too hot, according to a report to the Commerce Department
yesterday from Consul Ifft, at Bergen, Norway. Reports from fishermen, seal hunters
and explorers, he declared, all point to a radical change in climatic conditions and
hitherto unheard-of temperatures in the Arctic zone. Exploration expeditions report that
scarcely any ice has been met with as far north as 81 degrees 29 minutes. Soundings to
a depth of 3.100 [3,100?] meters showed the gulf stream still very warm. Great masses
of ice have been replaced by moraines of earth and stones, the report continued, while
at many points well known glaciers have entirely disappeared. Very few seals and no
white fish are being found in the eastern Arctic, while vast shoals of herring and smelts,
which have never before ventured so far north, are being encountered in the old seal
fishing grounds.
November 2, 1922
November 2007
Autumn 2008
December 2007
January 2008
Western United States (11 states) Annual Jan-Dec Temperature
Provisional data from NCDC / CPC. Blue: 11-year running mean.
Units: Deg F. Data source NOAA cooperative network, thru Dec 2007.
Annual Mean Temperature ( F )
53
52
51
50
49
48
47
1890 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
Year
Western Regional
Climate Center
Through 2007
SST Departure from Climatology, Annual Jan-Dec, for 8 years 1999-2006.
B
A
Sea Surface Temperature. All ocean areas in box
30 N to 30 S / 80 E to 180 E. Thanks to “CDC”
Annual Jan-Dec.
Area A
0.5 C
1950
2000
Sea Surface Temperature. All ocean areas in box
25 N to 25 S / 70 E to 180 E. Thanks to “CDC”
Area B
0.5 C
1950
2000
Hello
20080104
20080103
Good-bye
February 2008
Winter 2008
March 2008
April 2008
Water Year Temperature Departure 2007 October 1 thru 2008 April 6
Last 30 days
Thru
2008 Apr 05
The Oregonian 20080426
March April
Normally rises
Lake Tahoe “gates closed” spring rise at Tahoe City:
March 2008: -0.04 ft, 3rd lowest rise for March in 108 years
April 2008: -0.01 ft. 2nd lowest rise for April in 108 years (lowest, 1977)
Mar-Apr 2008: -0.05 ft, 2nd lowest rise for Mar-Apr (lowest 1977)
Why?
Cool
No precip
Windy
Little runoff
High evaporation
Very dry soil
The Lake Tahoe gates closed rise for April is -0.01', which is the second lowest rise for April in 108 years (lowest 1977).
This followed a GC rise of -0.04 in March, which was the third lowest March in 108 years. March and April were the second
lowest back to back M & A GC rise in 108 years (lowest 1977). We have had a very cool, dry and windy spring, with very
little runoff, no precip, high evaporation off the surface of the lake, and very dry soil conditions. I wish I knew which of
those factors had the biggest affect on the rise so far this spring, probably just a combination of all. Needless to say, we
are off to a lousy start to the runoff season, I sure hope it improves.
Chad, email 080501
Siberian Fires from MODIS
20080421
Taklimakan Desert Dust from MODIS 20080421
Siberian Forest Fires
Northern China
MODIS
27 April 2008
Taklimakan Desert, MODIS 01 May 2008
Taklimakan Desert, MODIS 02 May 2008
500 mb Flow
18000 feet
01 May 2008
04 May 2008
Bearing gifts from the Far East
Cyclone Nargis
130 mph sustained. 160 gusts
Myanmar
MODIS
02 May 2008 0645 GMT
May 2008
Spring 2008
Chaiten Volcano, Southern Chile, initial eruption, early May 2008
Chaiten Volcano, Patagonia, Chile, Dust to 55,000 ft, MODIS 03 May 2008
Chaiten Volcano, Patagonia, Chile, Dust to 55,000 ft, MODIS 250 m, 03 May 2008
Chaiten Volcano, Southern Chile, May 2008
Chaiten Volcano, Southern Chile, May 2008
Chaiten Volcano, Patagonia, Chile, Dust to 106,000 ft, MODIS 1 km, 06 May 2008
Chaiten Volcano, Patagonia, Chile MODIS 1 km, 06 May 2008
Chaiten Ash, Argentina, 12 May 2008.
Chaiten, 28 May 2008
Chaiten, 28 May 2008
Claudio Frias, El Mercurio 080529
Chaiten, 31 May 2008
Chaiten, 31 May 2008
Northern China 27 May 2008
Mean Annual Freezing Level near Maricopa CA. Fig ctsy John Abatzoglou.
Winter
Summer
Maricopa
CA
Spring
Autumn
Kelly Redmond
Ctsy: surfacestations.org
20 February 2007
White Mtn Summit, 14246 ft
Reconfigured July 2004
White Mountain Research Station Summit Station. 14,245 feet. White diamond.
North American Regional Reanalysis grid. 32 km, 3-hourly, 29 levels.
John Abatzoglou
Kelly Redmond
White Mountain Research Station Summit Station. 14,245 feet.
Mean Daily Temperature Observations. Complete days Sep 2003-May 2008. 70% of all days.
NARR. Reconstructed from North American Regional Reanalysis, 32 km, 29 levels. r = 0.985
(0.98 winter, 0.93 summer). 99 percent of all reconstructed values within 3 deg C of obs.
GR. Reconstructed from Global Reanalysis. r = 0.97
2007. offset +10C, offset -10C
John Abatzoglou
Kelly Redmond
White Mountain Summit Temperature. 14,245 feet. Reconstructed from Global Reanalysis.
Mean Annual
Temperature
1958-2007
Trend
0.24 C/decade,
30% greater
than California
Statewide.
Trends greatest
above 6000 feet.
Freezing level
In spring:
trend 1958-2008
170 ft/decade
52 m/decade
Days with
Mean Daily
Temperature
Above
Freezing ( 0 C )
John Abatzoglou
Kelly Redmond
“Upper Colorado”
Upper Colorado Annual 700 mb Temp (10,000 ft)
1C
Software ESRL/CDC
Upper Colorado Dec-Jan-Feb 700 mb Temp (10,000 ft)
1C
Software ESRL/CDC
Upper Colorado Mar-May 700 mb Temp
(10,000 ft)
Freezing
1C
Software ESRL/CDC
Upper Colorado Jun-Aug 700 mb Temp
(10,000 ft)
1C
Software ESRL/CDC
Upper Colorado Sep-Nov 700 mb Temp (10,000 ft)
1C
Freezing
Software ESRL/CDC
California
Climate Tracker
Thanks to John Abatzoglou
Spring
Sierra Nevada
Thanks to John Abatzoglou
Mean
Sierra Nevada
Spring
1895 – 2008
Maximum
Minimum
Thanks to John Abatzoglou
Wet Season to Date
July thru May
Sierra Nevada
Less snow water: California becomes less attractive
Reduced fall from GRACE
Jay Famiglietti UCI and Sean Swenson UColo
Water Year
to date
01 Oct 2007
thru
06 June 2008
Water Year
to date
01 Oct 2007
thru
06 June 2008
Mount Hood, Oregon
5400 ft
Wallowa Mountains, Northeast Oregon
7410 feet
San Juan Mountains, Southwest Colorado
11,200 feet
White Mountains, Mogollon Rim, Northeast Arizona
9020 feet
Reduction in accumulated Snowpack with respect to average - NRCS
Streamflow forecasts from NRCS
March 1
2008
May 1
30 days ending
June 9, 2008
Lake Powell Storage Through June 5, 2008
x
2008 Note: June 5 inflow 72780 cfs, with
lake rising 1 foot in one day, and approx
100,000 AF increase in storage. Fcst
max elevation 3636 ft.
Currently 55 % full (June 5, 2008)
Minimum: 33 % full on April 8, 2005
Lake Powell Elevation Through June 5, 2008
x
Water level on June 5, 2008 was 3615.42 ft, -84.58 ft below full.
Minimum level on April 8, 2005 was 3555 ft, -145 ft below full.
Source: www.usbr.gov/uc/water/index.html
Temperature Departure from Climatology 700 mb (10,000 ft)
Apr – Sep 2007
Oct – Mar 2007-2008
Winter Dec-Jan-Feb 2007-2008 Temperature Departure at 700 mb ( 10,000 feet)
Spring Mar-Apr-May 2008 Temperature Departure at 700 mb ( 10,000 feet)
Through May 2008
“El Nino”
“La Nina”
NOAA ESRL (“CDC”), Wolter and Timlin
Global Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies ( C ) 2008 May 25-31
NOAA ESRL (“CDC”)
Recent Evolution of Equatorial Pacific SST Departures
Updated through 2008 May 25-31
Whither
ENSO
???
June 2008 thru 8th
198
thru
9.8th
CIRMOUNT
Let’s put imagination
to work !!!