Climate information services
in support of adaptation:
NIDIS as a prototype
Roger S. Pulwarty
Physical Scientist and
Director, National Integrated Drought
Information System
NOAA
Boulder CO
New York Times Sunday
Magazine, October 21, 2007`
National Integrated Drought
Information System
“A dynamic and accessible drought information system
that provides users with the ability to determine the
potential impacts of drought and the associated risks,
and the decision support tools needed to better
prepare for and mitigate the effects of drought.” Public
Law 109-430 (2006)
Successful agreements in the West
• Strong focusing events
• Significant public interest and involvement
• Personal attention of key leaders
• Strong basis for collaboration between research
and management
• Close Federal/State/local partnerships
WY
Unregulated inflow
into Powell
Powell and Mead
Powell and Mead
Storage, maf
% Capacity
% of Average
1999
109
47.59
95
2000
62
43.38
86
2001
59
39.01
78
2002
25
31.56
63
2003
52
27.73
55
2004
49
23.11
46
2005
104
27.24
54
2006
72
25.80
51
2007
68
24.43
49
*2008
113
27.42
55
National Climate Services Vision “An informed society
anticipating and responding to climate and its impacts”
NOAA 2008.
More specifically:
The timely production and delivery of useful climate data,
information and knowledge to decision makers” (NRC,
2001)
Network of activities which maintains well-structured
paths from observations, modeling, and research to
usable information
Expectation
“Better integrated understanding of the multiple
functions of climate or environment and socioeconomic systems will lead to greater focus on the
opportunities for balancing economics and
conservation as a subject of policy and to more
coherent support among policymakers and
stakeholders”
Context?
“You are piling up a heritage of
conflict and litigation over water
rights for there is not sufficient water
to supply the land…”
John Wesley Powell 1893 (International
Irrigation Conference, Los Angeles cited in W.
Stegner, 1954 p. 343)
— SCALES OF DROUGHT —
Heat Waves
Floods
Storm Track Variations
Madden-Julian
Oscillation
30
1
DAYS SEASON
SHORT-TERM
El Niño-Southern
Oscillation
Decadal Variability
Solar Variability
Deep Ocean
Circulation
Greenhouse Gases
3
10
YEARS YEARS
30
100
YEARS YEARS
INTERANNUAL
DECADE-TOCENTURY
Climatic-Drought Contributors:
A continuum
National Geographic February 2008
Why do Attribution?
.
“The cat did it”
“El Nino did it”
“Climate change did it”
“Yeah, that’s the ticket”
Projected Western US Warming+4°C by
2100
For every 0.5°C warming, montane tree
lines
advance ~100m
The American West:
Epicenter for Warming
Observed Annual Temperature Anomaly 2000-2006
Hoerling et al, 2008
The American West:
Epicenter for Warming
Greenhouse Gas Forced Annual Temperature Anomaly 2000-2006
Hoerling et al.,08
Percent Change in Total Population, 19902000
5
1
4
3
2
Source: U.S. Geological Survey, National Atlas of the United States
Colorado Front Range,
1960
(Travis, 2007)
Colorado Front Range,
2000
Colorado Front Range,
2040
Growing metro-zone
(I-25 North corridor)
National Geographic, Feb 2008
Science, February 1, 2008
We made a bit of a mess in aisle 2
Multiple competing values
Multiple, competing objectives
Hydropower
Ecosystems
health
Recreation
Consumptive
use
Flood
control
Agriculture
Are we we’re exceeding design specs
on this stand?
No, you’re
biased
You’re
biased
Oh, you’re
biased
Everyone is
biased
except me
• Some impacts can be reduced by mitigation but
many can not
• At least 0.6 deg C warming has occurred
• A further c. 0.5 deg C warming is inevitable, i.e.
would occur even if emissions were stabilised at
2000 levels
• The most stringent targets (not yet agreed to)
limit T increase to about 2 deg C (with c. 550
ppm stabilisation);
USGS C. 1186
• Large Parts of the
country rely on
groundwater
• Recharge intermittent
in many locations
• Very little is known about how groundwater will
change
• Data lacking yet critical for management and modeling
• Aquifer Storage and Recovery an old technique with
potential to assist with storage issues
Lower Colorado Basin Mean Annual Temperature.
Units: Degrees F. Annual: red. 11-year running mean: blue
Data from PRISM: 1895-2005.
Annual Mean Temperature ( F )
62
2F Increase Since 1970
61
60
59
58
57
56
55
1890 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
Year
Kelly Redmond, DRI
WRCC / CEFA
NOAA Westmap
If so……..
………so what ?
If it’s so easy , why is it so hard?
Let’s be “Proactive”:
You first!
How can this information be systematized into
services?
A mixed of traditional and newer
approaches
Planning for scenarios with different climate
statistics…
• Are the planning assumptions borne out by what is
known about past, present and future climate?
• Do scenarios reveal potential surprises?
• The variables, f (climatic risks, impacts, response),
most needed may be the ones that are most difficult
to predict accurately
• Action: Reduce conditions of risk vs. specific action
on imperfect predictions?
(Pulwarty and Cohen 2008)
Decision Support: Research-based knowledge
• Lacking or inadequate
• Available but not used
• Used ineffectively or producing unintended consequences
• Available, but if used effectively: Takes time to learn
appropriate applications and to take effect
• Available, used effectively, can produce positive
results but overwhelmed by rates and magnitudes of
social, economic and environmental changes
“No systematic collection and analysis of
social, environmental, and economic data
focused on the impacts of drought within the
United States exists today”
Western Governors Association 2004
NIDIS VISION and GOALS
“A dynamic and accessible drought information system that provides
users with the ability to determine the potential impacts of drought and
the associated risks they bring, and the decision support tools needed to
better prepare for and mitigate the effects of drought.”
Implementation requires:
• Coordinate a national drought monitoring and forecasting system
• Creating a drought early warning system
• Providing an interactive drought information delivery system for
products and services—including an internet portal and
standardized products (databases, forecasts, Geographic
Information Systems (GIS), maps, etc)
• Designing mechanisms for improved interaction with public
(education materials, fora, etc)
y g
“(We) contend that we can reduce this nation’s vulnerability to the impacts of drought by making
preparedness—
preparedness— especially drought planning, plan implementation, and proactive mitigation—
mitigation—
the cornerstone of national drought policy..”—
policy..”— National Drought Policy Commission
Report, May 2000
“NIDIS should improve and expand the compilation of reliable data on the various indicators of
droughts,
droughts, and it should integrate and interpret that data with easily accessible and
understandable tools, which provide timely and useful information
information to decisiondecision-makers and the
general public.—
public.— Western Governor’s Association Report, June 2004
“Characteristics of disaster-resilient communities”:
‰ Relevant hazards are recognized and understood.
‰ Communities at risk know when a hazard event is imminent.
‰ Individuals at risk are safe from hazards in their homes and places
places of work.
‰ Communities experience minimum disruption … after a hazard event has passed.”
— National Science and Technology Council, June 2005
“NearNear-term opportunities identify observing systems or integration of components that meet high priority
societal needs, and make improvements to inadequate existing systems
systems that can be completed within 5
years and have tangible, measurable results.
‰ Improved Observations for Disaster Warnings
‰ Global Land and Sea Level Observation Systems
‰ National Integrated Drought Information System
‰ Air Quality Assessment and Forecast System
‰ Architecture and Data Management.”—
Management.”— U.S. Group on Earth Observations, Sept. 2006
NOAA
Western Governors Association
USGS
NIDIS Implementation Team
Partners (to date):
Dept. of Interior (BoR)
U.S. Army Corps of Engineers
USDA (NRCS, ARS, CSREES)
NASA
Indigenous Waters Network
Regional Climate Centers
National Drought Mitigation Center
Association of State Climatologists
Cornell University
New:
New Mexico State University
Duke Power
Rutgers University
U. Georgia
South Dakota State University
University of Oklahoma
University of South Carolina
www.drought.gov
University of Washington
The Weather Channel
Drought Information: NIDIS Early Warning
(sub)Systems
• Monitoring and forecasting
National, regional and local levels: Existing, gaps, emerging needs
• Risk assessment
Coordinated Federal information should enable resources and
disaster management authorities to generate their own risk and
impact scenarios, trigger and tools development
• Communication and Preparedness
Inform actions required to reduce the loss and damage expected
from an impending event and for post-event planning
U.S. Drought Portal
Governance Structure for NIDIS Implementation
NIDIS Executive Council
Co-chairs: Director, NOAA Climate Program Office (or designee)
Director, National Drought Mitigation Center (or designee)
NIDIS Program Office
(NPO Director)
•Coordinate NIDIS-relevant cross-NOAA
•and Interagency drought-related activities
•Develop a national presence for NIDIS
(e.g. formal links to National Governors
Ass’n)
•Participate in GEOSS / IEOS
NIDIS Program Implementation Team
(NPIT)
Working-Level Partner Representatives
Coordinate and develop evaluation criteria for all
NIDIS activities including pilot project selection
Chair: NPO Director
NIDIS Technical Working Groups
Federal, Regional, State, Tribal and Local Partner Leads
Embedded in national and regional, and local NIDIS Activities
Develop pilot implementation and transferability criteria
Co-Chairs selected by NPIT
National Integrated Drought Information System
Drought Early Warning System Design, Pilots, and Implementation
Governance Structure for NIDIS Implementation
NIDIS Executive Council
Co-chairs: Director, NOAA Climate Program Office (or designee)
Director, National Drought Mitigation Center (or designee)
NIDIS Program Implementation Team
(NPIT)
NIDIS Program Office
(NPO Director)
•Coordinate NIDIS-relevant cross-NOAA
•and Interagency drought-related activities
•Develop a national presence for NIDIS
(e.g. formal links to National Governors
Ass’n)
•Participate in GEOSS / IEOS
Working-Level Partner Representatives
Coordinate and develop evaluation criteria for all
NIDIS activities including pilot project selection
Chair: NPO Director
NIDIS Technical Working Groups
Federal, Regional, State, Tribal and Local Partner Leads
Embedded in national and regional, and local NIDIS Activities
Develop pilot implementation and transferability criteria
Co-Chairs selected by NPIT
Public Awareness
And Education
Engaging
Preparedness
Communities
Integrated
Monitoring and
Forecasting
Interdisciplinary
Research and
Applications
National Integrated Drought Information System
Drought Early Warning System Design, Pilots, and Implementation
U.S.
Drought Portal
U.S. Drought Portal
Home Page www.drought.gov
Key Clearinghouse Functions:
Credible, Accessible, Timely Drought Information
to answer
Where are drought conditions now?
Does this event look like other events?
How is the drought affecting me?
Will the drought continue?
Where can I go for help?
Using the U.S. Drought Portal (drought.gov)
1.
Key Themes
1.) Current Drought
2.) Forecasting
3.) Impacts
4.) Planning
5.) Education
6.) Research
2.
3.
Showcase Portlets:
1.) U.S. Drought Monitor
(NOAA, USDA, NDMC)
2.) Climate Prediction Center
Seasonal Forecast (NOAA)
3.) Drought Impacts Reporter (NDMC)
Proposed NIDIS Drought Early Warning Systems
Southeast
Proposed NIDIS Drought Early Warning
Complementary projects?
Compatibility with DEW(I)S?
Outcomes? Sustainability?
Transferability?
Southeast
Coordinated reservoir
operations
Ecosystem health/services
Inter- and Intra-basin transfers
Implementing the NIDIS: Pilots
Engaging research, management and planning communities:
Coordinating federal, state, and local drought-related
Stakeholder defined measures of drought and triggers for
activities (e.g. decision
within watersheds
and states)
making
Monitoring
Prediction
Applications
Research
NIDIS Process Model:
Implementing NIDIS Pilots
Engaging
research,
management
andlocal
planning
communities:
Coordinating
federal,
state, and
drought-related
Stakeholder
defined(e.g.,
measures
of drought
and triggersand
for decision
making
activities
within
watersheds
states)
Monitoring
Prediction
Risk
Assessments
Integrating Tools:
e.g. Drought Portal
Identifying
and diffusing
innovative strategies
for drought risk
Engaging
the preparedness
communities
assessment, communication and preparedness
Proactive
Planning
Impact
Mitigation
Improved
Adaptation?
Adaptation: Options and Practices
in water resources
• Supply Side
• Groundwater use
• Increase Storage
Capacity
• Desal of Sea Water
• Rain-water storage
• Removal of
phreatophytes
• Water Transfer
• Most have adverse
environmental
consequences
• Demand Side
– Recycle Water
– Reduce Irrigation
Demand
– Virtual Water
– Water Markets
– Economic Incentives
including metering,
pricing
– For many effectiveness
uncertain
In laymen’s terms there
are 23 flushes left……
Atlanta Journal
Constitution Oct. 2007
Managing as climate changes:
• Key drivers, such as climate and technological change, are
unpredictable with great accuracy on scales that matter for
regional and local decisions. Many change non-linearly
• Human action in response to projections is reflexive. If important
ecological or economic predictions (statements about the possible
futures) are taken seriously, people will react in ways that will
change the future, and perhaps cause the predictions to be
incorrect
• The system may change faster than the models can be
recalibrated, particularly during turbulent periods of transition, so
projections may be most unreliable in precisely the situations
where they are most desired
Climate change will likely force legislators to
reexamine existing statutory and other
law relating to resource interests especially water
(but rates of change will likely be faster than this
process……….)
Greatest near-term challenge to the environment and to ESA
“Implied right” to protection of the habitat from
environmental degradation
Summary
• What climate and drought-related triggers are used for management and
response seasonal operations, long-term planning (watershed, industry,
state, county)?
• How can we most effectively develop and coordinate information for early
warning (onset, duration, demise, impacts) into drought plans?
E.g. Exceptional Drought Operation Plan, Interim Operating Plan, Power
needs etc?
• Proposed NIDIS Pilot: Partnerships to maintain a regional dialog on
drought, water resources, and economic assessments
Congressional Bills
Snowe-Kerry:
S 2307 Global Change Research
Improvement Act
Establish within NOAA a National Climate
Service and regional centers
Udall-Inglis: HR906 The Global Climate
Change Research, Data and Management
Act
Cantwell: S 2355 Climate Change
Adaptation Act of 2007
States……..
DRAFT NCS Operating Model
Legend
External
Landscape,
Users
Leadership /
Governance
Capabilities
Core
Capabilities
Enabling
Capabilities
Leadership
Users and Partners
Leadership
Product / Service
Development,
Improvement and
Delivery
Core Capabilities
User Interaction
• User/Partner Mngt
• Product/Service Feedback Mngt
• Requirements Development
• Outreach
• Education
• Capacity Building
• Communications
• Anticipating Future Needs
• Socio-economic Analysis
• Adaptation Analysis
• Knowledge Assessments
User Interaction
Research and
Modeling
ƒ Integration
ƒ Policy Support
ƒ NCSP Coordination
ƒ Leadership
ƒ Strategic Planning
ƒ Governance
Observations and
Monitoring
Observations and Monitoring
• Observations
• Monitoring
• Data Mining
• Data Stewardship
• Analysis
Enablers
Product & Service Development,
Improvement, and Delivery
• Scientific Assessments
• Attribution
• Applied Research
• Forecasting
• Operational
• Issue-Focused
• Decision Support
• Quality Assurance and
Standards
• Improvement
• Channel / Access Mgmt
• Delivery Coordination
Research and Modeling
• Modeling
• Predictions
• Projections
• Process-Based Research
and Understanding
• Basic Research
• Adaptation Research
Enablers
ƒ Performance Management
and Reporting
ƒ Information Technology,
Systems and Infrastructure
ƒ Information and
Knowledge Management
ƒ Performance Support
ƒ Internal Training
ƒ Contracts and Grants
Regional Oversight and Evaluation
OTHER NON-NOAA
PARTNERS
A Prototype Pathway for Regional
Climate Information Services
RESEARCH
RISAs, universities, and labs
&
DEVELOPMENT
&
Integrating knowledge
and products (CDC,
ETL, RCCs, RFCs, SCs)
PROTOTYPING
&
Operational
(RCCs, NCDC,
CPC, WFOs, SCs,
other private sector)
SERVICES
new or enhanced regional products
information delivery technology
sustained & systematic communication and feedback
Knowledge governance and information
flow
Impediments to the flow of knowledge
among existing components
Policies and practices that can give rise
to failures of the component parts
working as a system
Opportunities for and constraints to
learning and institutional innovation
Mapping decision making processes and
climate information entry points
• “The National Climate Service, proposed in Senate
bill S1766, is intended to ignore real science and
substitute the outright lies perpetrated by Greens
who are devoted to advancing the Communist goal
of global government (2002)”
Changes in run-off, 21st century. White areas are where
less than two-thirds of models agree, hatched are where
90% of models agree
IPCC Technical Paper on Climate Change and Water
Released April 2008
All’s I’m saying is that now might be the time to develop
the technology to deflect an asteroid”
Thank you
you!!
Adaptation experiences to inform governance:
Managing through environmental changes
(1) Clarification of goals at the human-environment
interface
(2) Distillation of lessons from comparative appraisals of
current and past practices
(3) Construction of a solid cooperative foundation for
research and management
(4) Social processes of risk communication: Not just twoway
(5) Public-private partnerships: Not one or the other but
what combination is needed and at what scale?
ƒ Product / Service Evaluation – develop and implement an evaluation of
the effectiveness, usefulness, timeliness, and relevance of the climate
products and services
ƒ Product / Service Improvement – analyze feedback on existing
products/services to provide recommendations for new or improved
products/services; monitor developments in technology and science to
provide feedback for future innovations
ƒ Channel/Access Management – develop a plan and processes to
establish and maintain the right venue(s) for distribution of climate
products and services
ƒ Delivery Coordination – coordinate the release of NCS products and
services through a focused point of entry as well as distributed channels
Service Development, Improvement and Delivery
Functions
ƒOperational – organize and perform climate service functions, including
delivery of national and local climate products, services, and information,
climate observing system stewardship, and development of strategies to
assess local climatology
ƒIssue-Focused – based on the collective capabilities of NOAA, develop
products and services to address a climate issue
ƒDecision Support – translate observation, modeling, and research data into
a usable format for policy decision makers
ƒQuality Assurance and Standards – monitor comprehensiveness and
accuracy of NCS products and services to ensure consistent standards in
products and services delivered
Thanks
?
From climate impacts
assessment to water
resources practice—
Okanagan, Canada
1990s
2006
Complex environmental problems usually
involve the greatest/most:
•Assumptions
•Estimates
•Inputs from the most people
•Stakes
•Greatest numbers of uncertainty categories
•Opportunity for resorting to “efficiency”
anchoring and reduction of complexity for
action
Pulwarty and Redmond 1997
Reports of drought-related impacts
May 1, 2007 - April30,2008