“Farming looks mighty easy
when your plow is a pencil
and you’re a thousand miles
from the peanut
corn field
field
” ”
(Dwight
(Eisenhower,
D. Eisenhower)
Fletcher & McCorvey)
US Peanut Butter Consumption
(1997.4 --- 2009.2)
290,000,000
Actual
40.1% increase
Split
270,000,000
Lbs
250,000,000
230,000,000
1.4% increase
210,000,000
190,000,000
This Chart Data come from US Peanut Stocks & Processing.
09
2Q
08
4Q
08
2Q
07
4Q
07
2Q
06
4Q
06
2Q
05
05
4Q
2Q
04
4Q
04
2Q
03
4Q
03
2Q
4Q
02
02
2Q
01
4Q
01
2Q
00
4Q
00
2Q
99
4Q
99
2Q
98
4Q
98
2Q
4Q
97
170,000,000
NASS 6/30 FSA C. Ac
Alabama
170
155.440
Florida
120
107.118
Georgia
460
503.526
Mississippi
20
20.097
New Mex.
7
6.869
N. Carolina
75
65.578
Oklahoma
17
12.338
S. Carolina
55
45.859
Texas
160
158.435
Virginia
12
11.459
U.S.
1,096
1,086.718
% Diff
-8.57
-10.73
9.46
0.46
-1.87
-12.56
-27.43
-16.62
-0.98
-4.51
-0.85
Georgia Peanut Planted Progress(%)
by Date, 1999- 2009
Source: Crop Progress and Condition, GA Office of USDA's NASS
100
90
80
2009
70
99-08Avg
04-08Avg
60
50
40
30
20
10
6/17/2009
6/10/2009
6/3/2009
5/27/2009
5/20/2009
5/13/2009
5/6/2009
4/29/2009
4/22/2009
4/15/2009
0
Georgia Peanut Pegging Progress(%)
by Date, 1999- 2009
Source: Crop Progress and Condition, GA Office of USDA's NASS
100
90
80
2009
70
99-08Avg
04-08Avg
60
50
40
30
20
10
8/12/2009
8/5/2009
7/29/2009
7/22/2009
7/15/2009
7/8/2009
7/1/2009
6/24/2009
6/17/2009
6/10/2009
0
GA 2000-2009 Peanut Crop Condition
Index
410
390
2000
2001
2002
350
2003
2004
330
2005
310
2006
2007
290
2008
2009
270
W
ee
k1
4
k1
3
ee
W
W
ee
k1
2
k1
1
W
ee
k1
0
W
ee
k0
9
W
ee
k0
8
ee
W
W
ee
k0
7
k0
6
ee
W
W
ee
k0
5
k0
4
W
ee
k0
3
ee
W
ee
W
ee
k0
1
k0
2
250
W
Crop Condition Index
370
GA 2009 Peanut Yield Prediction by Weeks
3,600
3,500
Yields(pounds/acre)
3,400
3,300
3,200
3,100
3,000
GPC Model
2,900
Revised Model
2,800
Trend Model
NASS Forecast
2,700
Last Year Actual Yield
2,600
Wk01 Wk02 Wk03 Wk04 Wk05 Wk06 Wk07 Wk08 Wk09 Wk10 Wk11 Wk12 Wk13 Wk14
United States
Representative
Peanut Farms
Areas Represented by the 22 United States
Representative Peanut Farms
Established and Maintained by the National Center for Peanut Competitiveness
Competitiveness
Georgia—8 farms
Florida—2 farms
Alabama—2 farms
South Carolina—1 farm
Mississippi — 1 farm
Texas—3 farms
New Mexico—1 farm
Virginia—1 farm
North Carolina — 2 farms
Oklahoma — 1 farm
Acreage and Crop Mixes (Southeastern RF 2009 Update)
100
300
400
172
128
399
356
120
700
Total Acres
100
425
100
700 c
100
100
Wheat (dc)
200
Soybeans
450
Pasture/ Cattle
Feed
Irrigated Corn
56
Coastal Hay
Non Irrigated
Cotton
254
Watermelons
Irrigated Cotton
57
Sweet Corn or
Other
Vegetables
Non Irrigated
Peanut
126
Non Irrigated
Corn
Irrigated Peanut
107
100
200
200 dc
1050 k
50 mil
50
50 dc
1100 h
35 cab
1210 f
75
25
175
1400 g
100
1600 i
250
250
400
500
100
338
112
372
578
300
150
400
350
800
100
50
150
2000 b
532
133
765
210
360
30
100
2130 j
100
600
100
850
400
110
616
110
1364
1125
375
850
100
150
150
1800 d
2200 u
2200 v
75
1250
300 dc
400
350 swc
200 dc snap
800
2375 e
250 dc
3000 a
Acreage and Crop Mixes of Representative
Mid-Atlantic Peanut Farms (2009 Update)
300
135
654
1000
270
300
300
200 full
200 dc
126
200
300
400
Total Acres
280
900
Wheat (dc)
135
500
Soybeans
300
Non
Irrigated
Corn
Irrigated
Corn
Non
Irrigated
Cotton
Irrigated
Cotton
Non
Irrigated
Peanut
Irrigated
Peanut
200
1400 n
200 dc
1500 l
1800 o
200 dc
2000 m
Acreage and Crop Mixes of Representative
Southwestern Peanut Farms (2009 Update)
480
800
500
360 gr
360 sil
120 sil
250
250
1250
500
1500
500
120 sg
Total Acres
720
Dry Corners
in CRP/Fallow
360
Dry Wheat
or Grass for
Stockers
Small Grain
360
Vegetables
80soy dc
60 mil dc
Irrigated
Corn
600
Irrigated
Cotton
Wheat or
Wheatlage
Non Irrigated
Cotton
Non Irrigated
Peanut
60
Irrigated
Peanut
150
160 grain
100 graz dc
310
1280 t
160
1600 s
360
2500 q
700
250
250 dc
700
3000 p
250
1250 % dc
4000 r
2009 Expected Irrigated Peanut Yields for
US Representative Peanut Farms (Lbs/Acre)
Farm T
Farm S
Farm R
Farm Q
Farm P
Farm O
Farm N
Farm M
Farm L
Farm V
Farm U
Farm K
Farm J
Farm I
Farm H
Farm G
Farm F
Farm E
Farm D
Farm C
Farm B
Farm A
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
lbs/Acre
(green) Southwest
Farms P-T
(red)
Mid-Atlantic
Farms L-O
Farms A-K,U,V (blue) Southeast
(3,980 lbs/Ac Avg)
(4,000 lbs/Ac Avg)
(4,132 lbs/Ac Avg)
5000
2009 Expected Non-Irrigated Peanut Yields for
US Representative Peanut Farms (Lbs/Acre)
Farm T
Farm S
Farm R
Farm Q
Farm P
Farm O
Farm N
Farm M
Farm L
Farm V
Farm U
Farm K
Farm J
Farm I
Farm H
Farm G
Farm F
Farm E
Farm D
Farm C
Farm B
Farm A
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
lbs/Acre
(green) Southwest
Farms P-T
Farms L-O
(red)
Mid-Atlantic
Farms A-K,U,V (blue) Southeast
(1,200 lbs/Ac Avg)
(3,546 lbs/Ac Avg)
(3,292 lbs/Ac Avg)
5000
Georgia Farms: Prices to equate returns above TVIC to highest
returning crop each farm
Farm A
Farm C
Farm D
Farm F
Farm H
Farm I
Farm J
Farm V
Irrigated
Peanuts
$375
$375
$375
$405
$429
$450
$396
$375
Non-Irrigated
Peanuts
NA
$397
$503
$458
$519
$476
$470
$496
Irrigated
Cotton
$.63
$.71
$.65
$.67
$.62
$.62
$.62
$.73
Non-Irrigated
Cotton
$.96
$.87
$1.00
$.91
$.92
$.89
$.78
$.94
Irrigated
Corn
$4.21
$4.42
$4.56
$3.27
$4.11
$3.86
$3.91
NA
Soybean
NA
NA
$15.96
NA
$12.23
NA
NA
NA
Minimum Price
Maximum Price
Irrigated
Peanuts
$375
$450
Non-Irrigated
Peanuts
$397
$519
Irrigated
Cotton
$.62
$.73
Non-Irrigated
Cotton
$.78
$1.00
Irrigated
Corn
$3.27
$4.56
Soybean
$12.23
$15.96
Georgia Farms:
Economic Viability of US Representative Peanut Farms over the
Period 2008-2015 based on AUGUST 2009 Baseline
Overall Economic Viability1
P(Negative Ending Cash)2
P(Real Net Worth Decline)3
Farm A
41-95
1-71
Farm B
69-99
1-99
Farm C
99-99
1-99
Farm D
1-1
1-1
Farm E
14-49
1-47
Farm F
95-99
1-99
Farm G
58-99
1-99
Farm H
99-99
1-99
Farm I
8-89
1-64
Farm J
99-99
1-99
Farm K
99-99
1-99
Farm L
1-7
1-30
Farm M
1-3
1-36
Farm N
65-44
1-19
Farm O
38-86
1-68
Farm P
99-99
1-99
Farm Q
1-1
1-1
Farm R
99-99
1-99
Farm S
99-99
1-99
Farm T
67-99
1-98
Farm U
65-94
1-78
Farm V
1-1
1-1
1) Viability is classified as good (green), moderate (yellow), and poor (red) based on the probabilities of
<25
26-50
>50
having negative ending cash reserves and losing real net worth:
2) P(Negative Ending Cash) is the probability that the farm will have a negative ending cash reserve. Reported values represent the probabilities for 2008 and 2015.
3) P(Real Net Worth Decline) is the probability that the farm will have a loss in real net worth relative to the beginning
net worth. Reported values represent the probabilities for losing real net worth from 2008 to 2009 and 2008 to 2015.
Economic Viability of the
Southeastern Representative Peanut Farms
over the Period 2005-2010
based on August 2004 Baseline
Overall Economic Viability1
P(Negative Ending Cash)2
P(Real Net Worth Decline)3
Farm A
1-1
1-1
Farm B
3-99
1-86
Farm C
1-35
1-1
Farm D
1-1
1-1
Farm E
1-1
1-1
Farm F
1-43
1-48
Farm G
1-1
1-1
Farm H
96-99
1-11
Farm I
1-1
1-1
Farm J
1-3
1-1
Farm K
1-1
1-1
26-50
>50
<25
1) Viability is classified as good (green), moderate (yellow), and poor (red) based on the probabilities of
having negative ending cash reserves and losing real net worth:
2) P(Negative Ending Cash) is the probability that the farm will have a negative ending cash reserve. Reported values represent the probabilities for 2005 and 2010.
3) P(Real Net Worth Decline) is the probability that the farm will have a loss in real net worth relative to the beginning
net worth. Reported values represent the probabilities for losing real net worth from 2002 to 2004 and 2002 to 2010.
Production Cost Trends
Total Variable Input Cost (TVIC)
Southeastern
Representative
Farms
2005 vs ‘02
2008 vs ‘02
2009 vs ’02
Irrigated Peanuts
30%
62%
38%
Irrigated Cotton
20%
61%
30%
Irrigated Corn
49%
114%
51%
Dryland Peanuts
25%
52%
38%
Dryland Cotton
20%
73%
37%
TVIC:Does Not include land rent, labor, repairs and maintenance of equipment, or returns to management
Thank You
for Your Attention.
We Hope you Have a Great
Tour of the Georgia Peanut
Industry
ANY
QUESTIONS