2010 – Energy Rebounds BP Statistical Review
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BP Statistical Review of World Energy June 2011 bp.com/statisticalreview 2010 – Energy Rebounds Mark Finley, GM Global Energy Markets & US Economics © BP 2011 Outline • Introduction • Energy and the economy • Fuel by fuel • Conclusion BP Statistical Review of World Energy © BP 2011 The economy and energy demand GDP Energy Annual change, % Annual change, % 10% 6% 6% 4% 2% 2% -2% 0% -6% World OECD Non-OECD 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 Renewables Hydro Nuclear Coal 10-year average Gas Oil -2% 2006 Source: includes data from Oxford Economics. GDP growth is expressed in real purchasing power parity (PPP) terms. 2008 2010 BP Statistical Review of World Energy © BP 2011 Recession and recovery Annual change, % Annual change, % 6% 16% 8% GDP Energy 4% 2010 2% 0% 2009 -8% 0% -16% -2% Trade Industry Energy GDP Source: includes data from Oxford Economics, CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis. 2007 2008 2009 2010 BP Statistical Review of World Energy © BP 2011 GDP and energy growth OECD Non-OECD Annual change, % Annual change, % 5% 10% GDP Energy 3% 8% 1% 6% -1% 4% -3% 2% -5% 0% 2007 2008 Source: includes data from Oxford Economics. 2009 2010 2007 2008 2009 2010 BP Statistical Review of World Energy © BP 2011 Energy intensity Energy intensity level Toe/$Million per year Toe/$Million 300 World OECD Non-OECD 260 Change in energy intensity 4 2 220 0 180 -2 Effect of increased non-OECD weight Net change 140 -4 100 -6 1990 1994 1998 2002 2006 2010 Source: includes data from Oxford Economics. Change in energy intensity 98-03 03-08 2009 2010 BP Statistical Review of World Energy © BP 2011 Crude oil prices $/bbl 150 12-month moving average volatility, % 50% Dated Brent Annual averages 120 40% 90 30% 60 20% 30 10% Lowest since March 1995 Dated Brent 0 2003 2005 Source: includes data from Platts. 2007 2009 2011 0% Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 BP Statistical Review of World Energy © BP 2011 Oil consumption and production Annual change, Mb/d 4 OPEC production Non-OPEC production Global consumption 3 2 1 0 -1 -2 -3 -4 1Q09 2Q09 Source: includes data from EIA. 3Q09 4Q09 1Q10 2Q10 3Q10 4Q10 1Q11 BP Statistical Review of World Energy © BP 2011 Oil consumption growth in 2010 Largest changes Kb/d -200 China 0 200 400 600 800 Regional growth by fuel type Kb/d -100 0 100 200 300 400 Asia Pacific US Russia N. America Brazil S&C America Saudi Arabia Singapore Eur. & Eurasia India Middle East Canada France Africa Gasoil Gasoline BP Statistical Review of World Energy © BP 2011 Oil production growth in 2010 Decline Kb/d -300 -200 -100 Increase 0 100 200 300 400 Norway UK Non-OPEC FSU OPEC Brazil Canada Saudi Arabia Colombia Qatar Russia Biofuels US China Nigeria Changes of more than 100 Kb/d. BP Statistical Review of World Energy © BP 2011 Oil inventories OECD commercial oil stocks Oil in floating storage Mbbls Mbbls 2900 160 05-09 Range 2010 Products Crude 2011 2800 120 2700 80 2600 40 2500 0 Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan-09 Jul-09 Jan-10 Jul-10 Jan-11 Source: includes data from Monthly Oil Data Services © OECD/International Energy Agency June 2011 and from EA Gibson. BP Statistical Review of World Energy © BP 2011 Cumulative demand and production Changes since 2005 Mb/d Oil rig count and oil price Index: Jan 2005 = 100 8 400 OPEC Non-OPEC 6 4 NonOECD 2 Brent price OPEC NGLs Biofuels 200 Non-OPEC 0 -2 Iraq 300 OECD OPEC-11 Crude -4 Consumption Source: includes data from Platts, Baker-Hughes. Production 100 0 Jan-05 Jan-07 Jan-09 Jan-11 BP Statistical Review of World Energy © BP 2011 Refining capacity and margins Refining margins Refining capacity Mb/d $/bbl 20 48 OECD Non-OECD BP RMM 10-yr. Av. 15 46 10 44 5 42 0 40 2005 2007 2009 Source: includes data from Parpinelli-Technon, Platts. 2011 ytd 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 BP Statistical Review of World Energy © BP 2011 Crude runs and light-heavy spreads Light-heavy spreads Crude runs and utilisation Utilisation, % Mb/d $/bbl 90% 20 40 85% 15 35 80% 10 30 75% 5 25 70% 0 45 OECD World (rhs) 1995 2000 Source: includes data from ESAI, Platts. Non-OECD 2005 2010 LLS-Maya 10-yr. Av. 2005 2007 2009 2011 ytd BP Statistical Review of World Energy © BP 2011 Natural gas markets Consumption and production growth Prices 2010 vs 2009, Bcm $/Mmbtu 250 14 200 150 12 Other 10 Asia 50 6 Europe FSU Consumption UK NBP US Henry Hub 4 2 N America 0 Germany 8 Mid East 100 Japan LNG Production 0 2008 2009 2010 2011 ytd Source: includes data from Platts, BAFA. BP Statistical Review of World Energy © BP 2011 US natural gas market Horizontal gas and oil drilling Number of horizontal rigs 800 Gas in power generation Gas share in generation from coal and gas 40% 2008 2009 2010 Gas Oil 600 35% 400 30% 200 25% 0 20% Jan-09 Jul-09 Jan-10 Jul-10 Jan-11 Source: includes data from Smith Bits STATS, EIA. 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q BP Statistical Review of World Energy © BP 2011 Global natural gas trade Global gas trade growth LNG trade links Annual change, % 30% Four main importers, av. number of sources Pipeline LNG 9 20% 11 14 10% All exporters, av. number of markets 5 0% 2005 8 -10% 2009 9 2009 Source: includes data from Cedigaz, GIIGNL, CISStat. 2010 2010 BP Statistical Review of World Energy © BP 2011 OECD Europe natural gas market Prices Import growth $/Mmbtu Annual change, % 15 40% LNG 30% 12 Pipeline 20% 9 10% 6 0% 3 0 1Q07 -10% Av. German Import Price UK NBP 1Q08 1Q09 1Q10 -20% 1Q11 1Q07 Source: includes data from Platts, BAFA, Monthly Gas Data Service © OECD/International Energy Agency May 2011. 1Q08 1Q09 1Q10 BP Statistical Review of World Energy © BP 2011 Coal consumption and imports Consumption changes China’s imports Mtoe Mtes 300 40 $/te Price spread* (rhs) RoW 200 EU 30 RoW Indonesia Australia 32 24 US 100 India China 0 -100 -200 2006 2008 2010 Source: includes data from IHS CERA, IHS McCloskey. *Spread between China’s Qinhuangdao and Australia’s Newcastle coal prices. 20 16 10 8 0 0 1Q09 3Q09 1Q10 3Q10 1Q11 BP Statistical Review of World Energy © BP 2011 Hydro and nuclear power consumption Hydro Nuclear Annual change, % Annual change, % 8% 8% 6% 6% 4% 4% 2% 2% 0% 0% -2% -2% -4% -4% 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 10-year average 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 BP Statistical Review of World Energy © BP 2011 CO2 emissions CO2 intensity of energy CO2 emissions growth 2010 Tonnes of CO2 per toe Contributions to growth 3.0 6% Non-OECD 2.9 China Coal 4% 2% 2.8 Other nonOECD OECD 2.7 Gas OECD 2.6 Oil 0% By region World By fuel 2.5 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 BP Statistical Review of World Energy © BP 2011 Renewable energy Renewables growth Share of primary energy Percent Contributions to growth 2.0% 25% Renewables in power Biofuels 20% 1.5% 15% 1.0% 10% 0.5% 0.0% 2001 Renewables in power 5% Biofuels 2004 2007 0% 2010 2001 2004 2007 2010 BP Statistical Review of World Energy © BP 2011 Renewables in power Share of power generation Share of power generation in 2010 Percent Percent 6% 0% World OECD Non-OECD 4% 10% 20% 30% Denmark Portugal New Zealand 2% Spain Philippines 0% 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 Germany BP Statistical Review of World Energy © BP 2011 Renewables in Germany and Spain Spain Germany Power generation, TWh Share of primary energy, % 400 6% Oil Gas Coal Solar Biomass Wind Hydro Nuclear 300 4% 200 2% Nuclear (1974-1983) Renewables (2001-2010) 100 0% 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Years after reaching 1% share Source: includes data from MITyC.SEE. 0 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 BP Statistical Review of World Energy © BP 2011 Renewable power growth Renewables consumption Growth by region Contributions to growth Index: 2000=100 18% 1800 China Other non-OECD OECD 15% 1500 12% 1200 9% 900 6% 600 3% 300 0% 0 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Spain China Germany 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 BP Statistical Review of World Energy © BP 2011 60 years of energy World fuel shares World GDP, energy and emissions Percent Index: 1950=100 1000 60% Oil Coal Gas Hydro Nuclear Renew 40% 20% 0% 1950 1970 1990 2010 GDP Energy CO2 700 400 100 1950 Source: includes data from Oxford Economics; Etemad, Luciani, Bairoch, and Toutain, 1991; Maddison, 2009. 1970 1990 2010 BP Statistical Review of World Energy © BP 2011 60 years BP Statistical Review of World Energy June 2011 bp.com/statisticalreview 2010 – Energy Rebounds Q&A © BP 2011 Thank you 60 years BP Statistical Review © BP 2011
