Centre for Studies in Democratisation
CSD
Students' Working Paper Series
Growing Wealth, Growing Silence?
An assessment of the implications of the
rise of China for democratisation around
the world
Jennifer Sibley
j.c.sibley@warwick.ac.uk
Working Paper n. 6/ 2011
Centre for Studies in Democratisation
Department of Politics and International Studies
University of Warwick
Coventry CV4 7AL
United Kingdom
http://www2.warwick.ac.uk/fac/soc/pais/research/csd/
The Centre for Studies in Democratisation (CSD) was established at
the University of Warwick in 1992 in response to a growing interest
in the study of democracy at a theoretical and empirical level.
Democratisation has become a central political theme and features
now prominently on the foreign policy agenda of western countries.
Members of CSD are seeking to understand why, how and when
democracies emerge, sustain or collapse. They also investigate the
reasons why democratisation can sometimes be problematic.
Do not hesitate to contact us for more information!
Renske Doorenspleet (Director):
Renske.Doorenspleet@warwick.ac.uk
Or visit our website:
http://www2.warwick.ac.uk/fac/soc/pais/research/csd/
Abstract
China is an authoritarian state which is experiencing rapid economic
growth. It is growing in military, international and economic influence.
China’s rise challenges American hegemony and brings the western
commitment to democratisation under scrutiny. Democratisation remains
the only way to secure human rights in China, and continues to be globally
sought-after. However, China’s rise challenges democratisation by
supporting illiberal regimes in developing countries and providing an
alternative source of finance. It challenges the western model of
development and may destabilise development in some countries.
Internationally, Chinese nationalism may provoke a more aggressive foreign
policy, and China’s authoritarianism makes it harder to come to global
agreements. Democratic nations trading with China undermines criticism of
China’s politics. The implications for democratisation if China were to
collapse following democratisation are discussed as well, before concluding
that China’s rise has greater negative implications for democratisation than
positives.
Keywords: China; democratisation; democracy promotion; hegemony;
development.
Growing Wealth, Growing Silence?
An assessment of the implications of the rise of China for
democratisation around the world
Jennifer Sibley
INTRODUCTION
Democratisation is the process whereby a country moves from authoritarian
rule to democracy, although this may be neither fluid nor straightforward.1 In
non-democratic countries, it usually involves preparations for genuinely
competitive elections.2 Different types of authoritarian governments exist,
including absolute monarchies, one-party states, dictators or military rule,
with some states a combination of these.3 They have differing legitimacy and
differing amounts of freedoms and liberties for citizens; they may break
down differently, and not always towards democracy.4 Some countries
stagnate with electoral democracy; competitive elections but perhaps human
rights abuses.5 The democracy ‘end game’ is considered to be liberal
democracy; free and fair elections, rule of law, respect for human rights,
accountability, transparency, freedom of information, and no corruption.6
This is contested as: a western and capitalist concept, insufficiently universal
as it prioritises the individual over the collective and thus is opposed to some
non-western cultures; an ideal even western countries fail to meet; and
1
2
3
4
5
6
Burnell, P. (2008) Chapter 14: ‘Democratisation’, in: Burnell, P. and Randall, V. (eds) Politics in the
Developing World, Second Edition, Oxford University Press, p.269
Ibid, p.272
Ibid, p.269
Ibid
Ibid, p.270
Ibid, also Box 14.1(Dahl 1971), p.270
1
finally as too expensive for developing countries to prioritise. Globally,
democracy has stopped advancing; the ‘third wave’ of democracy has
stalled. This means global support and prospects for democratisation are
much less certain.7
China has the world’s second largest economy and is the world’s most
populous country.8 China’s political system is authoritarian. Freedom House
describes China as ‘not free’.9 The Communist Party rules China controlling
economic planning, political loyalty, media channels and the internet.10 It is
repressive towards freedom of speech, press freedom, democracy and human
rights. Corruption is endemic and only at local village level have elections
been tried.11 The state heavily regulates civil society, and judicial
independence and transparency is severely limited. Minorities face
discrimination and oppression.12
China’s economy boomed in the 1980s and is now the world’s fastest
growing; 10.3% growth in 2010, 9.6% projected growth in 2011.13 Joining
the World Trade Organisation (WTO) on 11 December 200114 saw China
Carothers, T. (2010) Chapter 4: ‘The continuing backlash against democracy promotion’ p.71, in:
Burnell, P. and Youngs, R. (eds.) New Challenges to Democratisation, Routledge
8
BBC News (2011) ‘China Country Profile’
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/africa/country_profiles/1287798.stm, accessed 28 March 2011
9
Freedom House (2010) ‘Freedom in the World: China: Country Report’
http://www.freedomhouse.org/template.cfm?page=22&year=2010&country=7801, accessed 11 April
10
Ibid
11
Yongnian, Z. (2004) Will China become democratic? Eastern Universities Press, Chapter 4: ‘Will China
become more democratic? A realistic view of China’s democratisation’, pp.100-121
12
Freedom House (2010) ‘Freedom in the World: China: Country Report’
http://www.freedomhouse.org/template.cfm?page=22&year=2010&country=7801, accessed 11 April
2011
13
IMF: ‘World Economic Outlook: Update’, published 25 January 2011,
http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/weo/2011/update/01/pdf/0111.pdf, accessed 11 April 2011
14
WTO News (17 September 2001) http://www.wto.org/english/news_e/pres01_e/pr243_e.htm, accessed
7
2
reject economic isolationism, and alongside economic reforms instigated in
China, has helped economic growth. Nonetheless, China is a developing
country15 due to low per capita incomes and persistent rural poverty.16 The
implications for democratisation of the world’s second largest economy
being authoritarian are enormous.
China is also growing its military power; its defence budget will increase by
12.7% in 2011.17 China stresses its military modernisation programme is
peaceful and despite the increases, America will still spend more on
defence.18 Regardless, Japan, America and other South East Asian countries
feel threatened, especially over China’s claims to the disputed South China
Sea, which is a potential oil and gas reserve as well as vital for China’s
energy imports.19 Japan is expanding its military to counter the perceived
threat.20 China claims America is strengthening regional capacity and
“encircling” it.21 US-Sino relations remain tense over Taiwan, and were cut
by China in February 2010 after America sold £4.1bn weapons to Taiwan.22
China clearly concerns the international community, especially if it is fully
transparent about defence. Military competition from such a major
authoritarian country concerns America, needs to be qualified against
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
16 April 2011
IMF: ‘World Economic Outlook: Update’, published 25 January 2011,
http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/weo/2011/update/01/pdf/0111.pdf, accessed 11 April 2011
BBC News (2011) ‘China Country Profile’
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/africa/country_profiles/1287798.stm, accessed 28 March 2011
BBC News (4 March 2011) ‘China says it will boost its defence budget in 2011’
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-12631357, accessed 11 April 2011
Ibid
Ibid
BBC News (17 December 2010) ‘Japan defence review warns of China’s military might’
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-pacific-12015362, accessed 11 April 2011
BBC News (10 January 2011) ‘Robert Gates in China: Beijing seeks to ease US fears’
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-pacific-12146922, accessed 11 April 2011
Ibid
3
China’s domestic concerns, which include energy, the environment, and
growing inequality.23
China has increased its political influence internationally as well. It holds a
permanent seat on the UN Security Council (UNSC) and alongside Russia
has objected to international interventions. High demands for energy have
seen China invest heavily in Africa, particularly in Sudan, South Africa,
Algeria
and
Zambia,
focusing
on
natural
resources,
trade
and
infrastructure.24 There is concern this allows illiberal countries an alternative
source of financing without political reform conditions.25
This essay will consider first the positives of China’s rise for the prospects of
democratisation around the world. Democracy’s message is more than
positive that what China offers, and is much demanded. Countries seeking to
secure human rights for their population will look to democracy. China
needs peace to develop, and will not threaten the world militarily. China’s
rise will also force the democratic world to reaffirm its commitment to
democracy and human rights. The negative implications remain more
important however, and include China’s economic influence in developing
countries, the challenge that China’s successful growth poses to the western
model of development, and growing Chinese nationalism. China’s
international role will be discussed, as well as the damage to democratisation
if China were to democratise and then collapse. The global implications of
23
24
25
Wang, S. (3 March 2011) ‘What does China’s new 5-year plan address?’ BBC News,
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-pacific-12639898, accessed 11 April 2011
Blenford, A. (26 November 2007) ‘China in Africa: Friend or Foe?’ BBC News,
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/africa/7086777.stm, accessed 11 April 2011
Ibid
4
China’s rise are increasing multipolarity and fragmentation of the existing
world order, with democracy increasingly challenged.
The positives: China’s rise encourage democratisation
Democracy’s message is positive; representation, freedom, human rights.
People rarely demand autocracy, human rights violations and corrupt
governments. Democracy remains a better future prospect than what China
can offer. China’s leaders value stability as necessary for development, from
which derives legitimacy.26 This explains the crackdown on opposition to the
regime, and the lack of rights to protest for example.27 People living under
authoritarian regimes in the Middle East and North Africa protested and
demanded human rights, civil liberties and democracy.28 China offers none
of these to the world.
China is attempting to balance political communism with economic
capitalism. The state is heavily involved in economic growth, but has
encouraged enterprise and allowed the private ownership of business.29
Some consultations have been necessary to ensure popular support for
reforms.30 China maintains only authoritarian regimes can ensure equitable
regional economic growth,31 but this is challenged by decentralisation which
26
27
28
29
30
31
Yongnian (2004) Chapter 1: ‘Development and democracy: are they compatible in China?’ pp.21-47
Freedom House (2010) ‘Freedom in the World: Country Report: China’
http://www.freedomhouse.org/template.cfm?page=363&year=2010&country=7801, accessed 28 March
2011
BBC News (15 April 2011) ‘Syria: clashes at mass Damascus protest’
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-13097926, accessed 17 April 2011
Yongnian (2004) Chapter 1, pp.21-47
Ibid
Ibid
5
has seen inequitable growth increase.32 The expansion of the private sector
and its importance for employment has undermined the commitment to
equality further, as redistributive taxation has not been implemented.33 As a
result, China cannot claim to be fully communist, socialist or doing
something vastly different to capitalism. China is not a democracy, but locallevel elections of officials34 suggests China cannot offer change-safe
authoritarian model either.
As a result, China cannot offer a positive alternative to democracy, and its
economic growth has seen some limited concessions to democratic elections
and consultation. Over the long-term, this may contribute to greater
pressures for more substantive elections, especially if stability is threatened.
Preventing instability, which is so crucial to the Chinese authorities, would
prove a difficult balancing act if the population were to demand greater
democracy. China is not isolated from democracy and does not threaten the
demands for democracy around the world.
In addition, China has an appalling human rights record, with individuals
experiencing torture, arbitrary detention and harassment on politically
motivated grounds.35 Corruption, poor governance and disregard for the rule
of law are also endemic.36 Trading with authoritarian and despotic countries
32
Yongnian (2004) Chapter 4, pp.100-121
Chen, A. (2008) Chapter 8: ‘Why does capitalism fail to push China towards democracy?’ pp.146-165 in:
McNally, C. (ed.) China’s Emergent Political Economy, Routledge
34
Yongnian (2004) Chapter 4, pp.100-121
35
Amnesty International (13 December 2009) ‘Obama must press China to uphold human rights’
http://www.amnesty.org/en/news-and-updates/news/obama-must-press-china-uphold-human-rights20091113, accessed 13 April 2011
36
Freedom House (2010) ‘Freedom in the World: Country Report: China’
http://www.freedomhouse.org/template.cfm?country=7801&page=22&year=2010, accessed 17 April
33
6
fundamentally undermines democratisation because unlike regimes in
countries like Zimbabwe and North Korea that are condemned by large
numbers of countries in the international community, trade and diplomatic
relations with China on the basis of national interest gives a huge boost to all
kinds of authoritarian regimes, all over the world. Nonetheless, China’s
human rights record can be positive for democratisation, because a country
seeking to afford its population human rights can only look to democracy to
secure them.
China may become part of the global historical shift in supremacy from one
empire or country to the next. Many countries would see a challenge to US
hegemony as a positive. America may be democratic, but has presided over
many non-democratic activities in other countries. Its foreign policy has
been aggressive towards Vietnam and Iraq, of mixed success, and has
alienated key regions of the world from democracy, notably the Middle
East.37 America’s support for structural adjustment policies has left a legacy
of failed development in countries such as Jamaica, Malawi and Zambia.38
America supports free trade yet subsidises US farmers.39 Such behaviour
undermines democratisation because democracy becomes linked with failed,
flawed and corrupt policies. Such policies are immersed in self-interest that
does not encourage support for democratic countries, and by implication
2011
Chomsky, N. (1993) Chapter 4: ‘The Struggle for Democracy in the New World Order’ pp.80-99, in:
Gills, B., Rocamora, J. and Wilson, R. (eds) Low Intensity Democracy , Pluto Press
38
Oxfam International (2002) ‘Europe’s Double Standards’, Oxfam Briefing Paper Number 22, p.5
http://www.oxfam.org.uk/resources/policy/trade/downloads/bp22_eutrade.pdf, accessed 12 April 2011,
and: Oxfam International (2002) ‘Crisis in Southern Africa’, Oxfam Briefing Paper Number 23, p.6 and
p.18 http://www.oxfam.org.uk/resources/policy/conflict_disasters/downloads/bp23_africa.rtf, accessed
12 April 2011
39
Ibid, p.2
37
7
neither their system of governance. China could counterbalance America, by
preventing or condemning US military intervention, or by forcing America
to admit it acts on national self-interest. China is accused of shoring up
illiberal regimes; America has done the same in Saudi Arabia, where oil
interests and support for anti-terrorism take greater importance than
democracy and women’s rights.
However, before China begins to lead a new world order, it must resolve its
contradictions. It supports non-intervention self-determination but not in
Taiwan, Hong Kong and Tibet where Chinese borders are affected. It has a
hybrid communism-capitalism regime. It cannot fund global institutions
whilst parts of China live in extreme poverty.40 China may be rising, but
multipolarity is more likely.
Liberalism has debate and the removal of bad ideas at its core. China may
force the world to debate freedom of speech, democracy and human rights
which is unlikely to favour China. However it will also force America to
defend its democratic and human rights record. China threatening to balance
America will not therefore challenge democratisation.
America’s previous challenger was the USSR; fully communist and seeking
territorial expansion. China has a dynamic economy and private enterprise
and profits are increasingly important. Socio-economic development could
bring democratisation in China, or increasing corruption could lead to rule of
40
Charities Aid Foundation (21 July 2009) ‘China tackles extreme poverty’
http://www.cafonline.org/default.aspx?page=17822&theme=print, accessed 12 April 2011
8
law and transparency reforms that achieve the same. The Chinese
government still censors heavily,41 but the internet, media, foreign travel and
exchanges mean Chinese citizens do have contact with democracy, freedom
and human rights, and there is some internal pressure for change. The state’s
legitimacy is based on economic growth, yet this growth has led the middle
classes to demand greater economic freedoms.42 Schumpeter declared
“modern democracy is a product of the capitalist process”43 and Lipset
explained that as wealth increased, capitalism would be accepted and
demands for democracy would grow.44 This is positive for democratisation,
as economic growth in China could bring democracy.
China needs peace to develop. Wang contends China will not be aggressive
towards other countries because it has too much to lose from trade, foreign
direct investment and business.45 China has integrated into world markets
and gains by assuring the world it accepts the international ‘rules’. Changing
the world economic order could end economic growth and cause internal
instability if it necessitated reforms.46 Wholesale global political change
could marginalise China, if more UNSC seats were afforded to rising
economies such as Brazil, South Africa and India. China has a UNSC veto
and will want to ensure it does not lose its political leverage.
BBC News (2011) ‘China Country Profile’
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/africa/country_profiles/1287798.stm, accessed 12 April 2011
42
Chen, A. (2008) Chapter 8: ‘Why does capitalism fail to push China towards democracy?’ pp.146-165 in:
McNally, C. (ed.) (2008) China’s Emergent Political Economy, Routledge
43
Schumpeter (1950) p.297 cited in: Lipset, S. (1994) ‘The Social Requisites of Democracy Revisited’
American Sociological Review, vol 59, February, p.1-22, cited p.2
44
Ibid
45
Wang, J. (2000) Chapter 2: ‘Democratisation and China’s Nation Building’ pp.49-73, in: Friedman, E.
and McCormick, B. (eds) What if China doesn’t democratise? M. E. Sharpe, Inc.
46
Ibid
41
9
Frank disagrees and contends that an increasingly confident China with the
legitimacy of huge economic growth will demand changes to international
institutions and end American institutional hegemony.47 Olson and
Prestowitz argue that international organisations reflect, not create, the
prevailing world order, and point to the shift from the G8 to the G2048 as
evidence that over time China will change institutions.
Therefore, China is tied into the world system that has brought it economic
growth. In the future, influence could shift away from the developed world
towards the developing, but for as long as capitalism offers China what it
needs, institutional changes will not occur and the democratic world will
maintain their global influence. China is only a threat to democratisation if
it influences countries away from democratisation. Egypt, Tunisia, Libya,
Yemen, Syria, Bahrain demonstrate that the vision of democracy is much
demanded, and not incompatible with non-western cultures. This rise of
China may also force democratic nations to affirm their commitments to
democracy and human rights to avoid hypocrisy.
The Negatives: China’s rise will damage democratisation
China’s growing economic and military strength will be discussed in this
47
Gunder-Frank, A. (1993) Chapter 2: ‘Marketing Democracy in an Undemocratic Market’ pp.35-58, in:
Gills, B., Rocamora, J. and Wilson, R. (eds) Low Intensity Democracy, Pluto Press
48
Olson, S. and Prestowitz, C. (2011) ‘The Evolving Role of China in International Institutions’
Economic Strategy Institute, p.14
http://www.uscc.gov/researchpapers/2011/TheEvolvingRoleofChinainInternationalInstitutions.pdf,
accessed 12 April 2011
10
section of the essay. China’s economic strength is crucially important for
democratisation; it will affect some countries’ development, it offers an
alternative source of trade and aid, and legitimates authoritarian
governments that bring growth.
China’s growing demand for energy will enable countries with mineral
wealth to export to China.49 However, high demand for minerals can cause
economic mismanagement, violence and corruption, as seen in the
Democratic Republic of Congo.50 Countries with manufacturing industries
may see increased competition from lower-priced Chinese imports.
Consumers will pay less, but employees’ wealth suffers if factories are
forced to close.51 Alternatively, China’s economic growth could lower the
price of cloth allowing developing countries to compete.52
China is investing billions overseas53 which is a concern for democratisation
as China is supporting authoritarian regimes by offering a source of finance
that competes with western channels of aid and trade. This undermines
attempts to encourage better governance, human rights, transparency, and
corporate and environmental responsibility.54 China buys two-thirds of
Sudan’s oil, and despite the humanitarian crisis in Darfur, Sudan receives the
49
50
51
52
53
54
Stevens, C. and Kennan, J. (2006) ‘How to identify the impact of China on small countries’ IDS
Bulletin, vol 37, no 1, pp.33-42
BBC News (17 April 2006) ‘Scramble for DR Congo’s mineral wealth’
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/4900734.stm, accessed 17 April 2011
Stevens, C. and Kennan, J. (2006) ‘How to identify the impact of China on small countries’ IDS
Bulletin, vol 37, no 1, pp.33-42, p.33
Ibid, p.34
BBC News (2011) ‘China Country Profile’
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/africa/country_profiles/1287798.stm, accessed 28 March 2011
Kaplinsky, R., McCormick, D. and Morris, M. (2006) ‘The impact of China on Sub-Saharan Africa’
p.3-4, http://www.uneca.org/eca_programmes/acgd/overview_report.pdf, accessed 12 April 2011
11
largest share of China’s investment in Africa.55 In Ethiopia, China funds
infrastructure projects, but it criticised for paying low wages.56 As Angola
rebuilds after decades of civil wars, Chinese workers fill jobs.57 China’s
relationship with Africa is politically motivated against Taiwan, with allies
encouraged to cut diplomatic ties with Taiwan and recognise Beijing as the
official Chinese government.58 This undermines democratic Taiwan, as well
as freedom of national decision-making in countries China cements relations
with.
In the longer term, China’s support for illiberal regimes through
modernisation and development programmes may lead to democratisation
by creating the prerequisites that Lipset argues make democracy more likely
to succeed.59 Elites capturing these benefits may prevent democratic
progress, but in turn could lead to protests and uprisings against corruption
and the lack of equitable economic growth, bringing democracy.
Furthermore, China’s economic growth model challenges democracy. The
west has championed open markets, trade liberalisation and free markets as
55
56
57
58
59
Blenford, A. (27 November 2007) ‘China in Africa: Developing Ties’ BBC News,
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/africa/7086777.stm, accessed 12 April 2011
Ibid
Ash, L. (4 December 2007) ‘China in Africa: Developing Ties’ BBC News
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/africa/7047127.stm, accessed 12 April 2011
BBC News (1 January 1998) ‘South Africa and Taiwan sever relations’
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/43856.stm, accessed 12 April 2011
Lipset, S. (1959) ‘Some Social Requisites of Democracy: Economic Development and Political
Legitimacy’ American Political Science Review, vol 53, pp.69-105, cited in: Doorenspleet, R. (2005)
Democratic Transitions: Exploring the Structural Sources of the Fourth Wave, Lynne Rienner
Publishers Inc, Chapter 4 ‘The Theoretical Approaches’, p.58
12
the way to develop.60 The problem is that the west did not develop like this,61
and countries that Zambia who have applied the model have experienced
industrial collapse and increased poverty, not development.62 China offers an
alternative where authoritarian government and state intervention succeed.
The implications for democratisation are that democracy is placed at odds
with development; democratic governments cannot make difficult decisions
about development because their concern is re-election.63 Authoritarian
governments that bring growth are afforded legitimacy. Stagnation of this
growth could eventually bring democratic demands. Alternatively,
successful development can bring democracy, as in South Korea.64 China’s
heavy reliance on state economic intervention makes it incompatible with
liberal democracy, which requires a mixed or market economy and healthy
civil society. China’s successful use of state control encourages other
despotic regimes that its use is acceptable.
In the short-term, China therefore threatens democratisation by allowing
countries to ignore calls for democratic or good governance reforms. It
supports authoritarian regimes and endorses change without consultation and
irresponsible business practices. In the longer-term, enabling economic
60
61
62
63
64
OECD ‘Trade liberalisation’
http://www.oecd.org/document/2/0,3746,en_2649_37431_41049090_1_1_1_37431,00.html, accessed
13 April 2011
Khor, M. (2007) ‘Globalisation, Liberalisation and Protectionism: The Global Framework Affecting
Rural Producers in Developing Countries’ Third World Network, p.10 and p.32,
http://www.twnside.org.sg/title2/t&d/tnd34.pdf, accessed 13 April 2011
Oxfam International (2002) ‘Crisis in Southern Africa’, Oxfam Briefing Paper Number 23, pp.6-7,
http://www.oxfam.org.uk/resources/policy/conflict_disasters/downloads/bp23_africa.rtf, accessed 12
April 2011,
Addison, T. (2003) Chapter 3 ‘Economics’ in: Burnell, P. (ed) Democratisation through the looking
glass, Manchester University Press
Moon, C.-I. and Kim, Y.-C. (1996) chapter 7 ‘South Korea: A Circle of Paradox’ p.141-146, in:
Leftwich, A. (ed) Democracy and Development, Polity Press
13
development in other developing countries may bring the prerequisites for
democracy, and this may also be true in China. Alternatively, failure to
develop equitably because of Chinese support for authoritarian regimes may
lead to calls for democratic change.
China also threatens democratisation in its foreign policy and increase in
international influence. Military strength, China’s role in the UN, and the
challenge posed by Chinese nationalism will be explored.
In 1954 China published the Five Principles of Peaceful Coexistence which
stressed China sought a peaceful rise. Behaving aggressively internationally
was rejected because of the impacts on development and thus the state’s
legitimacy. War and territorial expansion is expensive and would bring
China into disrepute.65 Nonetheless, America is suspicious about China’s
military capabilities and demands greater transparency.66 America has
committed to defending Taiwan from China, but war between the two is in
neither’s interests. Stalemate could see both seeking allies, and by
stigmatising the ‘other’ and stressing insecurity the democratic world could
encourage democratisation. The reluctant democracies of Brazil, South
Africa and India might be more willing to demonstrate their support for
democracy. However, the Cold War demonstrated that the effects on
democratisation of such a situation are negative; America supported
authoritarian regimes in Haiti, the Philippines, Iraq and Saudi Arabia with no
requirements for democratic reform.
65
66
Wang, J. (2000) Chapter 2, pp.49-73
BBC News (17 August 2010) ‘US says China’s military has seen secret expansion’
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-pacific-10995111, accessed 28 March 2011
14
China’s leaders are keen for China to rise peacefully, but they face
increasing pressure by Chinese people to be more assertive internationally.67
This is due to historic anti-Japanese sentiment68 as well as antipathy towards
attitudes that talk of ‘containing China’.69 These have three important
implications for democratisation. This first is that China’s leaders feel
popular pressure to act aggressively or to harden diplomatic relations. This
has potential to upset regional or global peace, but is also an argument for
elites to use against democratisation; elected leaders might be more willing
to act in the national interest to increase popularity. However, democracies
are generally more peaceful,70 and elected politicians more concerned about
the impacts of failed missions or military deaths on their popularity.
The second concern for democratisation is that Chinese nationalism justifies
the state but is not linked to popular sovereignty.71 This allows China’s
leaders to suppress dissent on the basis of national unification.72 Support for
the state provides a contesting version of democracy, as Chinese elites
maintain the state is democratic when it serves the higher interests of the
people. Accountability is not desirable, because the state becomes captured
by narrow interests.73 This makes democratisation harder, because the
Swaine, M. ‘Perceptions of an Assertive China’ China Leadership Monitor, volume 32, pp.2-3,
http://www.carnegieendowment.org/files/CLM32MS.pdf, assessed 18 April 2011
68
Wang (2000) pp.49-73
69
Yongnian (2004) Chapter 4, pp.100-121
70
Steele, B., (2007) ‘Liberalism-Idealism: a Constructivist Critique’, The International Studies Review,
Volume 9, Issue 1, pp.23-52
71
Yongnian (2004) Chapter 4, pp.100-121
72
Yongnian (2004) Chapter 4: pp.100-121
73
Nathan, A. (1986) Chinese Democracy, I. B. Tauris & Co. Ltd., Conclusion: ‘Chinese Democracy and
Western Values’, p.228
67
15
separation of state from government, decentralisation and civilian control of
the military, is considered by the Chinese to weaken the state and make it
less able to act in the country’s best interests.74 If China democratised,
Confucian culture which affords elites superiority over other citizens, makes
implementing the rule of law a challenge.75 Democracy, which is understood
to be ‘making decisions for people’, has implications for representation,
accountability and consultation.76 If China fails to make a complete
transition to democracy, it could become like Russia, where criticisms of its
democracy are widespread.77 Even if a full transition was achieved, the
length and experience of authoritarian rule will affect how successfully rule
of law, anti-corruption and respect for human rights are implemented. The
universality of democracy is threatened when countries fail to complete the
transition to liberal democracy.
Thirdly, nationalism means any transition to democracy must come from
within China or be considered alien and opposed to China’s real interests.78
Nonetheless, the state opposes such activity and suppresses internal disorder,
since this could encourage foreign intervention that brings democratisation.79
However, by refusing to allow an outlet for expressing opposition, the
regime encourages civil disorder which could bring democratisation in the
long-term.
74
75
76
77
78
79
Yongnian (2004) Chapter 1, pp.21-47
Yongnian (2004) Chapter 4, pp.100-121
Ibid
BBC News (27 October 2010) ‘Mikhail Gorbachev: ‘Russian democracy has problems’
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-11633219, accessed 17 April 2011
Yongnian (2004) Conclusion: ‘China’s regime change’ pp.317-335
Ibid
16
China has an important say in international affairs. China supports national
self-determination when countries live under foreign rule, but not when it
threatens territorial sovereignty.80 China supports the Responsibility to
Protect doctrine but only supports using force in interventions when UNSC
sanctioned and with the agreement of the host state.81 China voted against
condemning the human rights situation in Iran, Myanmar and North Korea.82
China’s attitude already leads to UN stalemate. This has meant non-UN
approved interventions in Iraq,83 Sierra Leone,84 Afghanistan,85 and
Kosovo.86 Such interventions question the legitimacy and credibility of the
UN, which whilst not perfect, is the international community’s most
representative and democratic body. China’s refusal to support interventions
sustains illiberal regimes and delegitimises popular protest for representation
and reform. Clearly domestic policy impacts on foreign policy here, for
China suppresses dissent and rejects succession of its territory. China’s role
in the UN is crucial as it can stop interventions on the basis of human rights
abuses. This undermines democracy, especially if China is in a minority yet
because of its veto can stop international action.
80
Bohua, X., (31 October 2001) ‘Statement by Counsellor of the Permanent Mission of China on the Right
to National Self-determination (Item 118) at the Third Committee of the 56th Session of the General
Assembly’, http://www.china-un.org/eng/zghlhg/jjhshsw/rqwt/t29323.htm, accessed 17 April 2011
81
Teitt, S. (19 December 2008) ‘China and the Responsibility to Protect’, Asia-Pacific Centre for the
Responsibility to Protect, p.2, http://www.responsibilitytoprotect.org/files/China_and_R2P
%5B1%5D.pdf, accessed 17 April 2011
82
Freedom House and UN Watch (5 May 2009) ‘Evaluation of 2009-2012 UN Human Rights Council
Candidates’ p.3, http://www.freedomhouse.org/uploads/features/UNHRC_Candidate_Evaluation.pdf,
accessed 13 April 2011
83
BBC News (29 March 2011) ‘Country Profile: Iraq’
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/middle_east/country_profiles/791014.stm, accessed 18 April 2011
84
Tran, M. (14 May 2002) ‘New imperialism in Sierra Leone’ guardian.co.uk,
http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2002/may/14/sierraleone1, accessed 13 April 2011
85
BBC News (15 March 2011) ‘Afghanistan Country Profile’,
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/south_asia/country_profiles/1162668.stm, accessed 13 April 2011
86
BBC News (10 July 2006) ‘Flashback to Kosovo’s war’
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/europe/5165042.stm, accessed 13 April 2011
17
In tackling global issues, it is important for the world’s biggest nations to be
fully involved in agreements or they lose their significance. This is
especially the case in areas such as climate change and pollution, the drugs
trade, the proliferation of nuclear weapons and counter-terrorism, as these
problems are not limited by borders or regions, and can affect the peace and
security of countries on the other side of the world. China’s authoritarianism
creates problems for the democratic world in making international
agreements. There are fewer shared values between democracies and China,
making agreement harder, especially because China is a UNSC veto holder.
Democratisation is undermined by working with China too. Collaboration
and trade with China reduces the ability to criticise China over its human
rights record.87 Democracies present their national interests as more
important than democratic ideals and thus encourage China to do the same.
Democratisation is threatened as politicians are rarely held accountable for
foreign business relationships.
Democracies like India, Brazil, Turkey and South Africa also undermine
democratisation by failing to promote democracy internationally and support
democracy and human rights in international institutions.88 Development
prevails over democratisation, which encourages China to do the same. In
the longer-term this may provide more suitable conditions for the
87
Porter, A. (9 November 2010) ‘David Cameron says he won't “lecture” China on human rights’ The
Telegraph, http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/asia/china/8119085/David-Cameron-says-hewont-lecture-China-on-human-rights.html, accessed 28 March 2011
88
Rachman, G. (4 January 2010) ‘America is losing the free world’ Financial Times,
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/3ef8f012-f969-11de-8085-00144feab49a.html#axzz1HuG2DSn7, accessed
28 March 2011
18
consolidation of democracy.
If China became a democracy its national interests will not change
completely.89 Democracy offers a reason for Taiwan to unite with China,90
and ought to see rule of law and human rights reforms and support for trade
agreements such as intellectual property rights. China could however
continue to trade with “rogue” states,91 although the same is true of western
democracies.
Therefore, China is focused on its internal development, but is increasingly
concerned about its international profile. Democracy only threatens China if
it prevents economic growth or threatens its territorial sovereignty.
Autonomy demands in Taiwan, Tibet and Hong Kong threaten the latter,
although maintaining the status quo is better for China than risking losing
territory.92 As long as countries seek investment in China, its domestic
economy will grow, enabling development. This in turn enables overseas
investment which can provide China with a trade surplus. Businesses invest
despite its authoritarianism, meaning democracy does not threaten China,
and so China is less of a threat to democratisation. However, democracy is
undermined by investing in China and not challenging its human rights
record and China gains legitimacy by rising peacefully as an authoritarian
state. Military action against China would undermine democracy if it failed,
89
Bachman, D. (2000) Chapter 7: ‘China’s Democratisation: What difference would it make for US-China
relations?’ pp.195-223, in: Friedman, E. and McCormick, B. (eds) What if China doesn’t democratise? M.
E. Sharpe, Inc.
90
Wang, J. (2000) pp.49-73
91
Bachman (2000) pp.195-223
92
Wang, J., (2000) Chapter 2: ‘Democratisation and China’s Nation Building’ pp.49-73
19
as well as alienating an entire population towards democracy.
China has undergone economic reforms and some, limited, political reforms
but these have stalled, not accelerated, democratisation. Local level elections
of officials were introduced in 1987.93 The impact on democratisation has
been variable. Positively, local government officials have more legitimacy
and are more willing to say ‘no’ to higher ranking officials. Corruption has
been tackled more effectively, and political pressure exists to democratise
other ranks of officials.94 On the other hand, further democratisation has
stagnated because it threatens the Chinese Communist Party’s rule. Elections
also absorb local complaints, meaning they are no longer directed at the
state, lessening pressure for reforms.95 Another consequence is that elections
are more successful in poor areas, since in rich areas candidates bribe voters
to choose them or risk losing their wealth.96 This is contrary to the
suggestion that increased economic wealth increases the prospects for
democracy.97 It emphasises the culture of corruption that exists and would
have to be tackled before more democratisation occurred, or democratisation
would be further undermined.
Nevertheless, China’s leaders remain resolute that China will not
democratise further. China’s leaders emphasise successfully the implications
for China if China were to collapse during democratisation. Social chaos,
93
94
95
96
97
Yongnian (2004) Chapter 4: pp.100-121
Ibid
Ibid
Ibid
Lipset, S. (1959) ‘Some Social Requisites of Democracy: Economic Development and Political
Legitimacy’ American Political Science Review, vol 53, pp.69-105, cited in: Doorenspleet (2005) p.58
20
instability and a political power vacuum would be disastrous as
democratisation as a desirable process would be undermined, and could in
any case see non-democratic government filling the vacuum. Fewsmith
argues the collapse of political authority, civil disorder, famine, a refugee
crisis and human rights abuses would not make democratisation look
appealing to elites or citizens in other countries.98 The Chinese state already
highlights how during Russian democratisation oligarchs gained massive
wealth whilst large parts of the population were left destitute.99 However,
although Russia today does not provide a good model for what
democratisation could look like in China,100 Russia’s democratisation was
unintended and not planned for. Slower, more controlled democratisation in
China could offer a better chance of success, although it could also become
captured by elites.
If China collapsed during democratisation it could deter other countries from
democratising. Authoritarian regimes might oppress dissent even more, as
occurred after the ‘colour revolutions’ in Georgia, Kyrgyzstan and
Ukraine,101 or democratic movements may simply lose popular support. The
validity of democratisation’s universal appeal and its feasibility to work in a
country with a vast land mass and population would be undermined. Yet
again, if China can democratise and succeed, it increases the pressure on
other authoritarian regimes to do the same.
98
Fewsmith, J. (2000) Chapter 3: Institution Building and democratisation in China, pp. 90-114, in:
Handelman, H. And Tessler, M. (eds) Democracy and its limits, University of Notre Dame Press
99
Yongnian (2004) pp.317-335
100
BBC News (27 October 2010) ‘Mikhail Gorbachev: “Russian democracy has problems”’
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-11633219, accessed 17 April 2011
101
Carothers, T. (2010) Chapter 4: ‘The continuing backlash against democracy promotion’ p.61-2 in:
Burnell, P. and Youngs, R. (eds.) New Challenges to Democratisation, Routledge
21
Conclusion: China poses a significant challenge to democracy
Promoting democratisation in China undermines democracy itself if it is for
realpolitik reasons. The democratic peace theory pertains that individual
democracies are less likely to go to war, and that they rarely war with each
other.102 This is due to mutual respect between democracies of their
neighbours’ right to political independence,103 the high costs of war,104 and
because due to their wealth, democracies have more to lose.105 US President
Clinton argued democracies are more reliable trade and diplomacy partners,
and as less of a threat to peace.106 China is supposedly a threat because it is
authoritarian and experiencing rapid economic growth. America also does
not want to lose its hegemony to an authoritarian state, as it will have no
influence over it. However, imposing democracy on China would probably
fail, be declared as illegitimate and imperialist, and undermines the core of
democracy – choice.107 It refuses to afford the Chinese people any rationality
in understanding their political situation, as well.
China’s rise as an authoritarian one-party state, with its strong and growing
military, support for non-intervention, its role in the developing world as a
Steele, B., (2007) ‘Liberalism-Idealism: a Constructivist Critique’, The International Studies Review,
Volume 9, Issue 1, pp.23-52
103
Doyle, M., (1997) Ways of War and Peace: realism, liberalism, and socialism, New York: Norton, p.10,
cited in: ibid
104
Moravcsik, A., (1997), The choice for Europe : social purpose and state power from Messina to
Maastricht, London: UCL Press, p.551, cited in Steele, B., (2007)
105
Dunne, T., (2008), ‘Liberalism’, in: Baylis, J., Smith, S., and Owens, P., The Globalization of World
Politics’, 4th edition, Oxford University Press, p.172
106
Yongnian (2004) Chapter 4, pp.100-121
107
Yongnian (2004) Conclusion, pp.317-335
102
22
source of trade, aid and finance, and its economic powerhouse poses a huge
challenge for democratisation. There are various scenarios. China and
America could battle it out – metaphorically for influence is more likely than
militarily; both have too much to lose from costly warfare. Multipolarity
could occur with America, China, Europe and possibly Russia holding
influence. However, Europe is a soft power, with limited military, and will
continue to depend on NATO or America for military protection. Russia has
limited influence outside its relatively obscure satellite states. The
developing world is not well represented, but it is not a united bloc, and nor
is Africa a united continent. This might mean fragmentation of the world
order, especially if states like Brazil, India and Egypt demanded more
recognition. The key to influence may soon be energy, with states that have
oil and gas for export able to trade influence internationally. This allows
authoritarian governments to avoid pressure for political reforms.108 China’s
demand for energy has increased the number of agreements that do not
include ‘change’ criteria.109 However, demand from populations that they
share in commodity wealth may lead to democratic reforms, as well as
demands from energy purchasers that supplies are maintained in both
security and sustainability terms.110 This may require good governance
reforms. Fragmentation could lead to, or follow from, an expansion of
UNSC membership, both permanent and temporary, which could also see
countries like Germany or Japan, important yet sidelined, finally afforded
recognition. The impact on democratisation is mixed; it dilutes the strength
108
109
110
Youngs, R. (2010) Chapter 10: ‘Energy: a reinforced obstacle to democratisation?’ p.186, in: Burnell
and Youngs (eds) New Challenges to Democratisation, Routledge
Ibid
Ibid, p.187
23
of the democracy message, if one superpower is reduced to global
fragmentation. Alternatively, a more representative and democratic global
order legitimises a political system that citizens in authoritarian-ruled
countries demand for themselves.
Overall, China’s rise will be positive for democratisation if it will be
peaceful. This reduces the likelihood of war, where democracy and human
rights are so often sidelined. Reducing the threat countries face from China
enables friendlier relations which are more conducive to democratisation.
Even if China becomes a superpower its message is not positive. Within
China people campaign for democracy, along with many others living in
authoritarian countries. In democracies, the call is usually for more
democracy, accountability, and transparency, not less. Democratisation is in
far greater demand than authoritarianism.
Nonetheless, the negative implications of China’s rise will be greater.
Allowing the world’s most populous country with the second largest
economy to remain authoritarian legitimises authoritarian rule and human
rights abuses. Democracy is undermined as democratic nations desperately
seek to trade with China and sell their exports. China’s stance on nonintervention potentially allows the world inaction whilst atrocities occur;
further undermining democracy by legitimising authoritarian rule. China will
challenge American hegemony and the hegemony of democracy. As a result,
China’s rise has more negative implications than positives.
24
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