UK Skill Levels
and International
Competitiveness,
2013
Evidence Report 85
August 2014
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UK Skill Levels and International
Competitiveness, 2013
Derek L. Bosworth
Associate Fellow, Warwick Institute for Employment Research
UK Commission for Employment and Skills
August 2014
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UK Skill Levels and International Competitiveness, 2013
Foreword
The UK Commission for Employment and Skills (UKCES) is a publicly funded, industry-led
organisation providing leadership on skills and employment issues across the UK. Together,
our Commissioners comprise a social partnership of senior leaders of large and small
employers across from across industry, trade unions, third sector, further and higher
education and across all four UK nations.
Our Vision is to create with industry the best opportunities for the talents and skills of people
to drive competitiveness, enterprise and growth in a global economy. Our Ambition for
2014-17 is to:

Create more opportunities for all young people to get in and on in work;

Improve the skills, productivity and progression of those in work;

Build stronger vocational pathways into higher level skills and jobs.
The UK Commission pursues a strongly evidence-based approach, drawing on impartial and
robust national and international business and labour market research to inform choice,
practice and policy. Uniquely, we combine robust business intelligence with Commissioner
leadership and insight.
Our research programme provides a robust evidence base for our insights and actions,
drawing on good practice and the most innovative thinking. The research programme is
underpinned by a number of core principles including the importance of: ensuring
‘relevance’ to our most pressing strategic priorities; ‘salience’ and effectively translating
and sharing the key insights we find; international benchmarking and drawing insights
from good practice abroad; high quality analysis which is leading edge, robust and action
orientated; being responsive to immediate needs as well as taking a longer term
perspective. We also work closely with key partners to ensure a co-ordinated approach to
research.
i
UK Skill Levels and International Competitiveness, 2013
This report provides an updated assessment of the UK’s recent progress and projected
future performance with regard to the skills held by the adult population. Within the report
formal qualification attainment is used as a proxy for skill levels. Over the last decade, the
UK has made significant progress in growing the skills of its workforce, greatly increasing the
proportion with higher qualifications whilst reducing the proportion with no qualifications.
However, when the UK’s performance is set in an international context it becomes clear that
other nations are also making rapid advances.
At current rates of progress relative
weaknesses in the UK’s skills base will not be rectified. This is a real concern when viewed
in the context of the UK’s overall competitiveness in global markets.
Sharing the findings of our research and engaging with our audience is important to further
develop the evidence on which we base our work. Evidence Reports are our chief means of
reporting our detailed analytical work.
All of our outputs can be accessed on the
www.Gov.uk/ukces website.
But these outputs are only the beginning of the process and we are engaged in other
mechanisms to share our findings, debate the issues they raise and extend their reach and
impact.
We hope you find this report useful and informative.
If you would like to provide any
feedback or comments, or have any queries please e-mail info@ukces.org.uk, quoting the
report title or series number.
Lesley Giles
Deputy Director
UK Commission for Employment and Skills
ii
UK Skill Levels and International Competitiveness, 2013
Table of Contents
Executive Summary ............................................................................................. v Introduction ........................................................................................................................... v UK results ............................................................................................................................. vi International comparative qualification performance ..................................................... vii 1 Introduction .................................................................................................. 1 2 UK historical trends and projections to 2020 ............................................ 3 3 4 2.1 Recent historical trends.......................................................................................... 3 2.2 Projections to 2020.................................................................................................. 5 2.3 The rate of improvement......................................................................................... 6 2.4 Gender differences .................................................................................................. 8 The UK’s international comparative qualification performance .............. 9 3.1 Introduction .............................................................................................................. 9 3.2 Current levels of qualifications and recent progress ........................................ 10 3.3 Projections of attainment in 2020 (and beyond) ................................................ 13 Conclusions ............................................................................................... 15 Appendix A: The models used to project the profile of qualifications .......... 18 Annex A: Qualification levels ............................................................................ 22 iii
UK Skill Levels and International Competitiveness, 2013
Table of Graphs and Charts
Figure 1: Historical trends in qualification mix (19-64 year olds, %) ......................................... 4 Table 1: Changing distribution of qualifications in the UK (19-64 year olds) ........................... 4 Table 2: Projected distribution of qualifications in the UK, 2020 (19-64 year olds) ................. 5 Table 3: Consecutive projections, 2020........................................................................................ 6 Table 4: Gender differences, 2012 and 2020, 19-64 year olds .................................................... 8 Table 5: Current international skills position ............................................................................. 11 Table 6: International skills projections 2020 ............................................................................ 12 iv
UK Skill Levels and International Competitiveness, 2013
Executive Summary
Introduction
This report provides an assessment of the level of skills held by the UK population compared
to other countries. Skills play a fundamental role in determining individual employability and
earnings potential and they make a major contribution to productivity and business
profitability, ultimately contributing to economic growth. The rapid changes taking place in
the global environment mean that the goal of achieving world class skills has never been
more critical to UK jobs and growth and the future skills mix of the UK adult population is
therefore of key importance. .
The report builds on previous analyses of skill levels presented in the Ambition 2020 reports
of 20091 and 20102 and Bosworth (2012)3. It assesses skills supply using possession of
formal qualifications as the key measure, recognising that qualifications are only one,
imperfect, measure of skills. Nonetheless, this analysis of the level of formal qualifications
held by individuals provides a valuable insight into the UK’s skills performance.
The reader should bear in mind that these projections indicate what would happen in the
future if recent trends, which themselves are based on survey observations, continue. Many
factors might influence these trajectories through to 2020 and beyond, so as with all
projections, they should be treated with caution, as indicative of future trends rather than as
precise forecasts of the future.
This report provides an interim update of the results from the projections. A fuller analysis,
including projections for the UK nations and English regions, will be published later in 2014.
1
UKCES (UK Commission for Employment and Skills) (2009) Ambition 2020: World Class Skills and Jobs for the UK. The
2009 Report. UKCES, Wath-upon-Dearne.
2
UKCES (UK Commission for Employment and Skills) (2010) Ambition 2020: World Class Skills and Jobs for the UK. The
2010 Report. UKCES, Wath-upon-Dearne.
3
Bosworth, D. (2012) UK Skill Levels and International Competitiveness. UKCES, Wath-upon-Dearne.
v
UK Skill Levels and International Competitiveness, 2013
UK results
The last 10 years (2002-2012) have seen a marked shift towards attainment at the highest
qualification levels4 (Level 4 and above) and away from those without formal qualifications or
qualifications at the lowest levels (less than Level 2). The proportion of the adult population5
qualified at a high level increased from 25.7 per cent to 37.1 per cent, whilst the proportion
with no qualifications or low level qualifications as their highest qualification fell from more
than one third (34.8 per cent) to less than a quarter (23.9 per cent).
These historical trends are largely carried forward in the projections to 2020. The rate of
improvement is lower for the below Level 2 category and slightly higher at Level 4+.6 Over
the period 2012 to 2020, the proportion qualified to Level 4+ is projected to rise to 46.7 per
cent (an increase of 9.6 percentage points or 4.2 million individuals), while the proportion
below Level 2 is projected to fall to less than a fifth (17.7 per cent) of the population (a fall of
6.2 percentage points or 2.2 million fewer people at this level).
There are important gender differences in projected qualification performance, with current
trends suggesting that women can be expected to perform more strongly at both ends of the
skills spectrum. A slightly higher proportion of females than males are currently qualified
below Level 2 (24.3 per cent versus 23.3 per cent respectively) but females are projected to
see a much more pronounced fall in the low skilled in the period to 2020 of nine percentage
points, compared with a fall of only three points for males. By 2020 only 15.4 per cent of
females are expected to be qualified below Level 2, compared with 20.0 per cent of males.
With regard to higher level qualifications females already perform better than males, with
38.3 per cent qualified at Level 4 and above compared with 35.7 per cent of males. The
projections indicate that this gap will widen slightly in the period to 2020 as female
attainment at this level increases to 48.8 per cent compared with 44.6 per cent for males.
4 An explanation of the levels used in the report is provided at Annex A. Qualifications are defined here with reference to the
Qualifications and Credit Framework (QCF). This is the national credit transfer system for vocational qualifications in England,
Wales and Northern Ireland. This framework defines formal qualifications by their level (i.e. level of difficulty) and credit value
(how much time the average learner would take to complete the qualification). Scotland has its own qualification framework,
the Scottish Credit and Qualifications Framework (SCQF), and its own system of levels. Correspondences between the levels
used in QCF / NQF and the SCQF are mapped in Qualifications can cross boundaries (SCQF, 2011).
5
The results outlined here are for 19-64 year olds unless otherwise stated.
6
Note that part of the increase in Level 4+ is caused by corrections to the immigrant data introduced in 2011.
vi
UK Skill Levels and International Competitiveness, 2013
International comparative qualification performance
Analysis of the current international skills position and the latest projections to 2020 for 2564 year olds paint a mixed picture of the UK’s international ranking relative to 33 other
member
countries
of
the
OECD
(Organisation
for
Economic
Co-operation
and
Development).7 Skills attainment is classified according to three levels: Low skills (Below
Upper Secondary), Intermediate skills (Upper Secondary) and Higher skills (Tertiary)8.
For Low skills the UK is currently ranked 19th (i.e. there are 18 out of the 33 other countries
with lower proportions); this places it in the third quartile of nations and just behind the
averages of both the OECD and EU. The UK is not expected to see an improvement in its
poor relative performance in the period to 2020, based on current trends. Although the
proportion qualified below upper secondary level is projected to fall from 26 per cent to 18
per cent this would leave the UK three places lower in the rankings because of more rapid
improvement by other nations.
37 per cent of the UK’s adult population are currently qualified at Intermediate level (Upper
Secondary), giving a ranking of 24th out of 33 OECD nations. The proportion qualified at this
level is projected to decline slightly (to 34 per cent) in the period to 2020, resulting in a fall in
the UK’s ranking to 28th.
Conversely, the proportion of the UK’s adult population qualified at a Higher (Tertiary) level
is projected to increase significantly, from 37 per cent to 48 per cent in the period to 2020,
elevating the UK’s international ranking slightly, from 11th to 7th. This points towards a
consolidation of the UK’s position on high level skills but it is important to bear in mind that
the projected position of the UK in 2020 is based on a continuation of existing trends. It
seems highly likely that at least some nations will see an improvement in the “trajectory” of
their performance as a result of policy intervention and / or other factors, such as increased
demand for higher level skills within their national labour markets.
From this analysis it could be argued that the most pressing priority is to accelerate the rate
of reduction in the size of the long “tail” of the low skilled in the UK population; both by
supporting the progression of those already in the labour force and helping them to move up
into the intermediate band, as well as by minimising the proportion of new entrants to the
labour market who lack attainment at upper secondary level.
7
Note that the current OECD data are for 2011 and are compared with the LFS data for 2011. This and the difference in the
age group means that the results discussed here are not directly comparable with the earlier tables.
8
These levels correspond broadly with below QCF level 2 (Low), QCF levels 2-3 (Intermediate) and QCF level 4 and above
8
(High) .
vii
UK Skill Levels and International Competitiveness, 2013
Although there is a fairly clear imperative to minimise the proportion of the labour force who
are skilled to a low level it is less clear what the optimal split between intermediate and high
level skills should be. Different countries have different strategies for growth. The UK’s key
strength lies in the size of its pool of high skilled labour. In contrast, countries like Germany
have founded a successful economic strategy on a skills base that is weighted towards
Intermediate skills, with a relatively small proportion qualified at a Higher level (but also only
a small proportion of the population holding no qualifications or low level qualifications).
Clearly, the level of skills and qualifications available in the economy is only one
consideration; the relevance of those skills to business and the ability of organisations to
utilise them effectively are also key.
viii
UK Skill Levels and International Competitiveness, 2013
1
Introduction
Amidst the signs of a continuing recovery there is a widespread consensus that the UK
needs to undergo a structural rebalancing of its economy if it is to achieve longer term
growth and prosperity. A crucial condition of sustainable growth is the availability of people
with the capabilities businesses need to compete in international markets.
The rapid changes taking place in the global environment mean that the goal of achieving
world class skills has never been more critical and at the same time more difficult to achieve.
Many competitor nations in the developing world are investing heavily in their skills base in
order to support a move up the value chain and to build a presence in markets that have
traditionally been dominated by developed nations like the UK. This means that not only
does the UK need to “run to stand still” in terms of it relative performance on skills; the
projections suggest that even improvements in absolute terms could still lead to a fall in the
international rankings.
The future skills mix of the UK adult population is of critical importance. The increased pace
of globalisation and technological change, the changing nature of work and the labour
market, and the ageing of populations are among the forces driving demand for skills. Skills
play a fundamental role in determining individual employability and earnings potential, and
make a major contribution to the productivity and profitability of business. For the economy,
there is a positive relationship between attainment and economic growth9.
The present report deals with the issue of the profile of skills, as proxied by formal
qualifications, in the UK. It presents historical changes and trends, as well as projections
through to 2020.
The approach used to assess likely future performance is set out in
Appendix A.
This report updates and builds on previous work by the UK Commission to assess the
international skills challenge, as presented in its Ambition 2020 reports for 2009 and 2010
and in Bosworth (2012), using an approach designed to provide results that are consistent
with this prior analysis.
9
See, for example, Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) (2004) Lifelong Learning: Policy Brief.
OECD, Paris.
1
UK Skill Levels and International Competitiveness, 2013
Some care is needed when talking about the supply of qualifications. In the present report
“supply” relates to the qualifications held by the UK population at different points in time.
Changes to supply are shaped by individual perceptions at each point in time about what the
demand for qualifications and skills will look like in the future (e.g. how many jobs will there
be requiring the associated higher qualifications and skills, and what wage premia will be
attached to such jobs).
As with all projections and forecasts, the forward-looking results presented in this report
should be regarded as indicative of likely trends, given a continuation of past patterns of
behaviour and performance, rather than precise forecasts of the future.
In addition, the chief source upon which the projections are based is the Labour Force
Survey (LFS). Like all surveys, the LFS is subject to sampling error: a degree of inaccuracy
caused by observing a sample instead of the whole population. The impact of this issue on
the projections is considered in more detail in the technical appendix to this report and in the
accompanying technical reports.
This report assesses skills supply using possession of qualifications as the key measure and
skills and qualifications are often treated as being synonymous. This approach has the
advantage that qualifications are easy to count, and data are readily available. However, it
is recognised that qualifications are only one, imperfect, measure of skills. There are many
individuals who possess skills that are highly valued by employers but who hold no formal
qualifications.
On the other hand employers may be sceptical of the value of some
qualifications. Moreover, a general improvement in qualification levels is of limited benefit if
it is not accompanied by the development of the ‘right’, economically valuable skills, which
employers demand and which can be effectively deployed in the workplace. Nonetheless,
this analysis of the level of formal qualifications held by individuals is felt to provide a
valuable insight into relative performance of the UK’s skills base.
2
UK Skill Levels and International Competitiveness, 2013
2
UK historical trends and projections to 2020
The main UK qualifications modelling draws on a linear time series model. This model uses
historical Labour Force Survey (LFS) data, broken down by gender and year of age (for
those of working age) for six qualification levels (see Annex A for further information on
levels). Individuals are allocated to a particular qualification level according to the highest
qualification they hold.
2.1
Recent historical trends
Figure 1 and Table 1 set out the main historical trends. Figure 1 indicates the considerable
improvement that has occurred at Level 4 and above. In particular, the number of people
qualified at Level 7-8 almost doubled in absolute size over the period, although Levels 4-6
saw the greater increase in share.
The proportion of the adult population qualified at intermediate levels remained largely
constant over the period. There were increases in the numbers of people qualified at Level
2 and particularly at Level 3 but, in terms of share, this was offset by increases in total
population size.
Declines took place at Level 1 and amongst those with no qualifications (4 and 7 percentage
points respectively).
3
UK Skill Levels and International Competitiveness, 2013
Figure 1: Historical trends in qualification mix (19-64 year olds, %)
40
35
% of adult population
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
2002
2003
2004
2005
No qualifications
2006
2007
Level 1
2008
Level 2
2009
2010
Level 3
2011
2012
Level 4+
Source: Time series model
Table 1 highlights the size of these changes in terms of the numbers of individuals involved.
Over the ten year period, the number of individuals with Level 4+ rose by more than 5 million
(an 11 percentage point rise), while those below Level 2 fell by more than 3 million (an 11
percentage point fall). These changes took place against a population increase amongst 1964 year olds of nearly 3 million.
Table 1: Changing distribution of qualifications in the UK (19-64 year olds)
2002
Level 7-8
Level 4-6
Level 4+
Level 3
Level 2
Level <2
Level 1
No Qualifications
All qualifications
2012
2002-2012 Change
%
Nos (‘000s)
%
Nos (‘000s)
Percentage
point
4.7
21.0
25.7
19.2
20.3
34.8
19.0
15.8
100.0
1,662
7,490
9,152
6,835
7,217
12,394
6,775
5,619
35,599
8.3
28.8
37.1
19.4
19.7
23.9
14.7
9.2
100.0
3,190
11,024
14,214
7,446
7,534
9,144
5,627
3,516
38,337
3.7
7.7
11.4
0.2
-0.6
-11.0
-4.4
-6.6
0.0
Nos (‘000s)
1,528
3,533
5,061
610
316
-3,250
-1,148
-2,102
2,738
Source: Time series model.
Note: “No qualifications” are all individuals below Level 1 and, therefore, include some individuals with Entry
Level qualifications.
4
UK Skill Levels and International Competitiveness, 2013
2.2
Projections to 2020
The projections of future qualification levels are undertaken separately for males and
females, by year of age (16 to 69), using either the last 10 years of historical data or the last
five years. These projections simply indicate what would happen in the future if recent
trends continue, and many things might impact on their path through to 2020 and beyond, so
considerable caution is needed in using these results.
The results based upon the trends over the ten years, 2003 to 2012, are set out in Table 2.
It can be seen that the proportion qualified to Level 4+ is projected to rise from 37.1 to 46.7
per cent over this period (a 9.6 percentage point increase). The projections suggest that
Level 7-8 will continue to be the fastest growing area.
The largest fall is in those with no qualifications (a reduction in share of 3.7 percentage
points, or a fall of 40 per cent compared with its 2012 value), which comprises the majority of
the 6.2 percentage point fall in the below Level 2 group. In fact all levels of qualification
other than the highest two show falls, although some of these are quite modest.
The projections suggest that there will be a fall of just less than 1 million people at the
intermediate levels (Levels 2 and 3).
Table 2: Projected distribution of qualifications in the UK, 2020 (19-64 year olds)
2012
2020
2012-2020 Change
%
Nos (‘000s)
%
Nos (‘000s)
Percentage
point
Level 7-8
8.3
3,190
11.4
4,483
3.0
1,293
Level 4-6
28.8
11,024
35.3
13,933
6.6
2,910
Level 4+
37.1
14,214
46.7
18,416
9.6
4,202
Level 3
19.4
7,446
17.5
6,884
-2.0
-562
Level 2
19.7
7,534
18.2
7,164
-1.5
-369
Level <2
23.9
9,144
17.7
6,980
-6.2
-2,163
Level 1
14.7
5,627
12.1
4,767
-2.6
-861
No Qualifications
9.2
3,516
5.6
2,214
-3.7
-1,303
All qualifications
100
38,337
100
39,445
0
1,108
Nos (‘000s)
Source: Time series model.
Note: “No qualifications” are all individuals below Level 1 and, therefore, include some individuals with Entry
Level qualifications.
Comparing the results in Table 1 and Table 2, it can be seen that the rise in the number of
individuals holding Level 4+ is projected to be smaller in absolute terms over the period 2012
to 2020 than over 2002 to 2012 (4.2 compared with 5.1 million)..
5
UK Skill Levels and International Competitiveness, 2013
The fall in below Level 2 is only two-thirds of that seen in the decade to 2012 (2.2 compared
with 3.3 million). This increase in the absolute number of those at Level 4 or above takes
place over the shorter projection period is roughly in line with the increase from 2002 to 2012
and takes place against a background in which the increase in the UK population of age 1964 over the projected period to 2020 is much less than in the previous 10 years (1.1
compared with 2.7 million).
2.3
The rate of improvement
It is difficult to say anything about private or public policies and their effects on qualification
mix per se, but it is possible to say whether the historical trends at different points in time
suggest that more recent projections are in some sense “more favourable” than earlier
projections. The time series modelling has been carried out over a number of years and,
while a number of changes have been made to the model, these will not have affected the
overall results dramatically, allowing comparisons between them. As the model is estimated
on the most recent ten years of data, each subsequent year of modelling differs by two years
of data (the latest year is added into the historical data and, what was the tenth year, drops
out). The first column of Table 3 shows the data periods.
Table 3: Consecutive projections, 2020
Data
period
2003-2012a
2001-2010b
2000-2009c
1999-2008d
Level <2
Level 4+
%
000’s
%
000’s
17.7
19.9
19.7
19.3
6,980
7,858
7,776
7,601
46.7
44.4
43.8
41.7
18,416
17,496
17,289
16,462
Notes: a) current report; b) Bosworth (2012); c) unpublished report; c) Ambition 2020, 2010 Report
6
UK Skill Levels and International Competitiveness, 2013
What Table 3 shows is whether there have been any systematic changes to the forecasts
over time as new data have emerged. The results in Table 3 show a great deal of stability,
as would be expected, as each model shares eight years of data with its immediate
predecessor.
Previous results suggested that, over time, a modest polarisation of
qualification levels was taking place, as the proportion below Level 2 in 2020 rose from 19.3
to 19.9 per cent and Level 4 and above rose from 41.7 to 44.4. This implied that the trend
towards higher level qualifications (Level 4 and above) had been accelerating whilst the
proportion of individuals with lower level (less than Level 2) or no qualifications would see a
smaller fall than indicated by the first set of projections. However, the latest set of results
suggest a change in this trend. Whilst the projected share of higher qualified individuals has
increased further11, the proportion of unqualified and low qualified individuals is projected to
fall to the lowest level since the forecasting work began. This could suggest that public and
private efforts to reduce the UK’s “tail” of poorly qualified individuals are meeting with some
success.
11
Although this is driven in part by changes to the treatment of foreign qualifications, which particularly affected Level 4+.
7
UK Skill Levels and International Competitiveness, 2013
2.4
Gender differences
The model is estimated separately for males, females and all individuals13 and Table 4
reports the main differences in the mix of qualifications and the changes in the mix over the
projection period for those aged 19-64. Females start in 2012 with a higher proportion of
individuals at Level 4 and above than is the case of males (38.3 per cent compared with
35.7 per cent). Females are projected to have a considerably greater improvement at Level
4-6 than males in the period to 2020, with little difference in the improvement in Level 7-8,
meaning that the gap between the genders widens, with 48.8 per cent of females at Level 4
or above, compared with 44.6 per cent of males.
Table 4: Gender differences, 2012 and 2020, 19-64 year olds
Males
Level 7-8
Level 4-6
Level 4+
Level 3
Level 2
Level <2
Level 1
No Qualifications
2012 (%
share)
2020 (%
share)
8.3
27.4
35.7
21.4
19.6
23.3
14.6
8.7
100
11.3
33.3
44.6
17.0
18.4
20.0
14.1
5.8
100
Females
pp
change
3.0
5.9
8.9
-4.5
-1.2
-3.3
-0.5
-2.8
0
All individuals
2012 (%
share)
2020 (%
share)
pp
change
2012 (%
share)
2020 (%
share)
pp
change
8.2
30.0
38.3
17.5
19.9
24.3
14.8
9.6
100
11.4
37.4
48.8
18.0
17.9
15.4
10.0
5.4
100
3.2
7.4
10.5
0.4
-1.9
-8.9
-4.7
-4.2
0
8.3
28.8
37.1
19.4
19.7
23.9
14.7
9.2
100
11.4
35.3
46.7
17.5
18.2
17.7
12.1
5.6
100
3.0
6.6
9.6
-2.0
-1.5
-6.2
-2.6
-3.6
0
All qualifications
Source: Time series model.
Note: “No qualifications” are all individuals below Level 1 and, therefore, include some individuals with Entry
Level qualifications.
Turning to the bottom half of the table, a slightly higher proportion of women than men had
less than Level 2 qualifications in 2012: 24.3 compared with 23.3 per cent. However, the
downward trend in this proportion is much stronger for females than for males (changes of
8.9 and 3.3 percentage points for females and males respectively), such that, by 2020, only
15.4 per cent of women fall into this low qualifications group, compared with 20.0 per cent of
males.
13 The all individual result is not a weighted average of males and females and is a check whether the results are broadly
consistent (e.g. does the figure for all individuals lie between the male and female results).
8
UK Skill Levels and International Competitiveness, 2013
3
The UK’s international comparative
qualification performance
3.1
Introduction
There is clear evidence that the skills available in the labour force help to determine how
countries will fare in the global marketplace. As products and processes become more
complex, the requirement for workers with a higher level of knowledge and skills grows.
Increasing attainment levels in the population lead to increased earnings for individuals,
contributing to national growth and prosperity. For example, analysis conducted by the
OECD14 suggests that more than one half of the GDP growth in OECD countries over the
past decade is related to earnings growth among individuals educated to a tertiary level.
The contribution of high skilled individuals in the UK is estimated to be significantly higher
than the OECD average. From this point of view it is valuable not only to assess current
performance but also to understand what future performance may look like, based on an
extrapolation of recent trends. The picture is not static: we know that competitor economies,
including emerging nations, are making rapid progress in developing the skills of their
people.
The following analysis is based on an International Skills Model, which projects the
educational attainment of the adult working-age population (aged 25-64) in OECD countries,
distinguishing between: Low skills (Below Upper Secondary), Intermediate skills (Upper
Secondary) and Higher skills (Tertiary).In an UK context these levels correspond broadly
with below Level 2 (Low), Level 2-3 (Intermediate) and Level 4 and above (High)15.
The model uses OECD data for the most recent 10 years (from 2002 to 2011), to identify
trends in changes in educational attainment for the countries for which data are available16.
The model uses historical trends to generate stylised international education level
projections to 202017.
14
OECD (2013), Education at a Glance 2013: Highlights, OECD Publishing. DOI :10.1787/eag_highlights-2013-en
15
It should be noted that while there is likely to be considerable overlap, at least for the UK, the match is still unlikely to be
perfect and, in addition, there are numerous problems with regard to consistency in such international comparisons. See the
technical report for further details.
16
Further details are provided in Appendix A.
17
The methodology is set out in Bosworth, D.L. (2012). International Skills Model: Technical Report, 2012. IER. University of
Warwick.
9
UK Skill Levels and International Competitiveness, 2013
To provide consistency with the approach used in the Ambition 2020 analyses of 2009 and
2010 and with Bosworth (2012) we have included data from the main time series model for
the UK and nations outlined in Section 2 above, rather than the simple time series for the UK
based upon the OECD results18.
The projections provide a starting point for assessing whether the likely trajectories indicate
that the UK’s comparative international adult skills position will improve or deteriorate over
the projection period.
Countries are ranked according to their most recent position19 and in 2020 in terms of:

The proportion of Low skills (lowest to highest)

The proportion of Intermediate skills (highest to lowest); and

The proportion of High skills (highest to lowest).
In general, given that productivity and earnings are positively linked to educational
attainment, there is a general tendency to think in terms of a small proportion of Low skills
(relative to Intermediate and High skills) and large proportion of High skills (relative to Low
and Intermediate skills) as being “good”. For simplicity, this is the interpretation adopted
below. In practice, whether changes in the three proportions should be said to be “good” or
“bad” may depend on the different countries’ strategies for growth and other dimensions of
well-being, which may require a more complex outcome in terms of the proportions of
individuals at different education levels.
As is clear from the following tables, relatively small differences in proportions (per cent
qualified) can have a major impact on a country’s ranking against any of the three indicators.
3.2
Current levels of qualifications and recent progress
This section discusses the UK’s current position, based upon the most recent data – see
Table 5 – and discusses how this differs from the then current position reported in Bosworth
(2012)20.
18
Note, however, that the results discussed here differ from those in Section 2 insofar as they relate to individuals aged 25-64,
rather than 19-64 as previously, in order to correspond with the age coverage of the OECD data.
19
Data for the UK are taken from the main time series model which draw on Labour Force Survey data for 2012 for the
projections; data for 2011 are used for comparative purposes in the current international skills position table (Table 5). Data for
the other 32 countries is taken from OECD data for the period up to and including 2011. The data are for 25-64 year olds and,
hence, are not directly comparable with the earlier tables.
20
UK Commission (2010). Ambition 2020: World Class Skills and Jobs for the UK. The 2010 Report. UK Commission for
Employment and Skills.
10
Table 5: Current international skills position
Low skills (Below upper secondary)
Country
Japan
Czech Republic
Slovak Republic
United States
Poland
Estonia
Canada
Sweden
Germany
Switzerland
Slovenia
Finland
Israel
Austria
Norway
Hungary
Korea
Denmark
EU21 average
OECD average
UK
New Zealand
Australia
Ireland
Netherlands
France
Belgium
Iceland
Luxembourg
Greece
Italy
Spain
Mexico
Portugal
Turkey
Intermediate skills (Upper secondary)
% Qualified
Rank
7
7
9
11
11
11
11
13
14
14
16
16
17
18
18
18
19
23
24
25
26
26
26
27
28
28
29
29
30
33
44
46
64
65
68
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
n/a
n/a
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
Country
Czech Republic
Slovak Republic
Poland
Austria
Hungary
Slovenia
Germany
Estonia
Sweden
Switzerland
EU21 average
United States
Japan
Finland
OECD average
Norway
Denmark
France
Italy
Greece
Korea
Luxembourg
Netherlands
Canada
Iceland
UK
Belgium
Israel
Australia
Ireland
New Zealand
Spain
Mexico
Turkey
Portugal
% Qualified
74
73
65
63
61
59
59
52
52
50
48
47
47
44
44
44
43
42
41
41
41
41
40
37
37
37
37
37
36
36
35
22
19
18
17
Source: OECD Education Database and Labour Force Survey, ONS
Note: Distribution of the 25–64 year old population by highest level of education attained. Excludes Chile.
.
11
Rank
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
n/a
11
12
13
n/a
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
High skills (Tertiary)
Country
Canada
Japan
Israel
United States
Korea
New Zealand
Finland
Australia
Norway
Ireland
UK
Estonia
Switzerland
Sweden
Belgium
Iceland
Denmark
Spain
Netherlands
OECD average
France
Luxembourg
EU21 average
Germany
Greece
Slovenia
Poland
Hungary
Austria
Slovak Republic
Czech Republic
Mexico
Portugal
Italy
Turkey
% Qualified
51
46
46
42
40
39
39
38
38
38
38
36
35
35
35
34
34
32
32
32
30
30
29
28
26
25
24
21
19
18
18
17
17
14
14
Rank
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
n/a
20
21
n/a
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
Table 6: International skills projections 2020
Low skills (Below upper secondary)
Country
Japan
Czech Republic
Slovak Republic
Poland
Canada
Sweden
Finland
Hungary
Korea
Slovenia
United States
Norway
Estonia
Germany
Ireland
Switzerland
Australia
Austria
Israel
EU21 average
Belgium
New Zealand
OECD average
UK
Denmark
Luxembourg
Greece
Iceland
France
Netherlands
Spain
Italy
Portugal
Mexico
Turkey
% Qualified
5
5
5
5
5
7
7
7
8
8
9
9
10
11
11
12
12
13
15
16
17
17
18
18
19
19
20
21
21
21
33
33
55
57
61
Intermediate skills (Upper secondary)
Rank
1
1
1
1
1
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
n/a
20
21
n/a
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
Country
% Qualified
Czech Republic
Slovak Republic
Hungary
Austria
Poland
Germany
Slovenia
Sweden
EU21 average
Greece
Finland
Estonia
Italy
Denmark
Norway
United States
Japan
OECD average
France
Belgium
Switzerland
Australia
Netherlands
Iceland
Luxembourg
Korea
Ireland
Israel
Canada
UK
New Zealand
Spain
Mexico
Portugal
Turkey
73
71
65
62
61
59
57
50
48
48
47
47
47
46
45
44
44
43
43
42
41
41
39
39
37
37
37
36
35
34
31
29
24
22
21
Source: UKCES projections based on OECD Education Database and Labour Force Survey, ONS
Note: Distribution of the 25–64 year old population by highest level of education attained. Excludes Chile.
12
High skills (Tertiary)
Rank
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
n/a
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
n/a
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
Country
Canada
Korea
Ireland
Japan
New Zealand
Israel
UK
Switzerland
Australia
United States
Norway
Finland
Luxembourg
Sweden
Estonia
Belgium
Iceland
Netherlands
OECD average
Spain
EU21 average
France
Denmark
Slovenia
Poland
Greece
Germany
Hungary
Austria
Slovak Republic
Portugal
Czech Republic
Italy
Mexico
Turkey
% Qualified
60
55
52
52
51
49
48
47
47
47
46
45
43
43
43
42
41
40
39
38
36
36
35
34
34
32
30
28
24
24
23
23
20
19
19
Rank
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
n/a
19
n/a
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
UK Skill Levels and International Competitiveness, 2013
For Low skills (Below Upper Secondary level) the UK is currently ranked 19th (i.e. there are
18 out of the 33 other countries with lower proportions qualified at this level). This places
the UK in the third quartile of nations and underperforming relative to the averages for both
the OECD and EU. This ranking of 19th is two places higher than in the 2012 report, with
Netherlands and New Zealand slipping behind the UK.
37 per cent of the UK’s adult population are currently qualified at Intermediate level (Upper
Secondary), giving a ranking of 24th out of 33 OECD nations.
This represents an
improvement of one place over the position in the 2012 report but still leaves the UK well
below both the OECD and EU averages. Over this period Iceland has overtaken the UK
(moving from a ranking of 28th to 23rd), whilst Belgium has fallen below the UK in the
ranking (moving from 23rd to 25th place) as has Israel (24th to 26th place).
Finally, in terms of the change in ranking for High skills, the UK has improved its position
from 13th to 11th, as a result of overtaking Estonia and Switzerland in the rankings. The UK
is placed well ahead of the averages for the OECD and EU in respect of this indicator.
3.3
Projections of attainment in 2020 (and beyond)
The UK is not expected to see an improvement in its poor relative performance on Low skills
in the period to 2020, based on current trends. Although the proportion qualified below
upper secondary level is projected to fall from 26 per cent to 18 per cent (compare Table 5
and Table 6) this would leave the UK three places worse off in the rankings (falling from 19th
to 22nd) because of a more rapid improvement by other nations. The projections indicate
that Ireland, Australia, Belgium and New Zealand overtake the UK in the period to 2020,
whilst Denmark is overtaken by the UK.
More positively, this still represents an improvement compared with the results of the 2012
report (Bosworth, 2012), which indicated that the UK could expect to be ranked in 25th place.
The projected estimate that 18 per cent of the adult population will be qualified at this level
by 2020 is a slight improvement on the 19 per cent estimate in the previous report.
The proportion qualified at Intermediate level (Upper Secondary) is projected to decline
slightly (from 37 per cent to 35 per cent) in the period to 2020, resulting in a decline in the
UK’s ranking from 24th to 28th out of 33 OECD nations. The UK is overtaken by Ireland,
Australia, Israel and Belgium, based on the projections.
13
UK Skill Levels and International Competitiveness, 2013
The UK is ranked two places lower in the current projections than in the results of the 2012
report, which ranked it in 26th place on Intermediate attainment, although the proportion
qualified at this level in 2020 is only one percentage point lower in the present set of
projections, at 34 per cent.
Conversely, the proportion of the UK’s adult population qualified at the Higher (Tertiary) level
is the only one of the three levels that is projected to see an increase in its share of the adult
population between 2012 and 2020, with a significant increase from 37 per cent to 48 per
cent. This improves the UK’s international ranking by four places, from 11th to 7th, as it
overtakes Finland, Norway, the United States and Australia.21
The UK is ranked four places higher in the current projections compared with the results of
2012 report in which it was ranked 11th. The current set of projections indicate that 48 per
cent of the adult population will be qualified at a higher level by 2020 compared to 46 per
cent predicted by the prior projections.
21
Some care should be taken in interpreting this substantial projected increase in the share of Tertiary level and the associated
UK ranking. The introduction of a new level of qualification question for immigrants has a significant positive impact on the
numbers of the UK population at Level 4+ in 2011 and 2012 that may account for some of the improvement. Future changes to
the model will allow more light to be thrown on this issue.
14
UK Skill Levels and International Competitiveness, 2013
4
Conclusions
Principal projections22
The focus of the present report has been on the levels of skills as proxied by formal
qualifications, both historically and in terms of projections to 2020.
The trends in qualifications over the 10 years to 2012 have been strongly in favour of the
higher qualification levels (Level 4 and above) and away from the lowest qualification levels
(less than Level 2). The number of individuals with Level 4+ rose by over 5 million (an 11.4
percentage point rise) while those below Level 2 fell by over 3 million (an 11.0 percentage
point reduction).
For the period to 2020 this broad pattern is projected to continue but with a slowing in the
rate of change for the below Level 2. Over the period 2012 to 2020, the proportion of the
adult population qualified to Level 4+ is projected to rise from 37.1 to 46.7 per cent (a ten
percentage point increase over a nine year period, associated with an additional four million
individuals). Over the same period, the proportion below Level 2 is projected to fall from
23.9 to 17.7 per cent (a six percentage point fall, associated with about 2.1 million fewer
people at this level).
It should be borne in mind that these are linear projections which indicate what is likely to
happen if recent trends continue into the future. Previous reports have shown that, as the
ten year historical period has been moved over the sequence of projections made for the UK
Commission, the positive effect on the most highly qualified and negative effects on the least
qualified have increased over time.
The latest set of results suggest that this trend
continues, as it projects that the proportion of unqualified and low qualified individuals will fall
to the lowest level since the forecasting work began, whilst the proportion qualified at a high
level increases again, although this may be partly due to a revision in the immigrant
qualification data.
22
Unless otherwise indicated all numbers or proportions discussed below relate to 19-64 year olds.
15
UK Skill Levels and International Competitiveness, 2013
Gender
With regard to gender, there are important gender differences both in the projected changes
and in the levels, both in 2012 and 2022. Females start with a higher proportion of Level 4+
in 2012 than males (38.3 per cent compared with 35.7 per cent) and are projected to have a
larger increase at this level (11 percentage points compared with 9 points). While females
start from a higher percentage of below Level 2 (24.3 per cent in 2012) compared with males
(23.3 per cent), they have a much larger projected decline (9 points compared with 3
percentage points), which results in a much lower proportion of women at this level than
men by 2020 (15.4 per cent compared with 20.0 per cent).
The UK’s international comparative qualification performance
The UK displays a mixed picture in terms of its current international performance on
qualification attainment. Its strongest relative performance is in respect of High skills but it
sits well down the rankings for Low skills and Intermediate skills attainment.
In terms of Low skills, the UK is currently ranked 19th (i.e. there were 18 other countries in
the OECD with a smaller proportion of people qualified at this level), but is projected to be
22nd by 2020, in spite of a reduction in the proportion of the population qualified at this level.
With respect to Intermediate skills, attainment the UK is ranked 24th currently and is
projected to fall to 28th place by 2020.
Finally, the UK’s ranking in terms of the proportion of individuals with High level
qualifications improves in the period to 2020, moving from 11th to 7th. This results from a
substantial increase in the proportion of the population qualified at this level of around nine
percentage points, but may be influenced by a change in the way in which immigrant
qualification data are collected at the end of the historical period.
What the present analysis cannot show is where each country actually will be by 2020 or
2025. The changes in rank are relatively small for the UK, unlike those of a number of other
countries. It seems unlikely that a number of the countries showing deteriorations in their
rankings will not react to address the adverse movements, although the costs involved in
reducing the proportion of low skilled adults in the population, for example, can prove
considerable.
16
UK Skill Levels and International Competitiveness, 2013
There are also significant challenges involved in ensuring that increases in the aggregate
supply of skills reflect the needs of national economies i.e. that the qualifications and skills
acquired by individuals are economically valuable and are used in the workplace.
The
concerns that this issue raises are reflected in a series of current debates around the underutilisation of graduates in the workplace, trends in the earnings of the higher qualified and
the emergence of skills shortages for high skilled roles.
17
UK Skill Levels and International Competitiveness, 2013
Appendix A: The models used to project the profile of
qualifications
A.1 Introduction
The present Report mainly draws upon two models of qualifications supply:

the main UK “time series” qualifications model23;
and

The international time series education model24.
The present discussion provides a brief introduction to the two models used directly in the
present Report.
A.2 Main “time series” qualifications model
This model focuses on projecting the qualification distribution across all adults in the
UK population through to the year 2020 (and to 2025). It is a linear time series model,
which was developed by HM Treasury for the Leitch Review of long term skills needs25. This
model uses historical Labour Force Survey (LFS) data, broken down by gender and year of
age (currently for those aged 16 to 69) for six qualification levels26. Individuals are allocated
to a particular qualification level mainly according to the highest qualification they hold (but,
in some cases, individuals with more than one qualification are allocated to a higher group).
The detailed procedures used to estimate the proportion of the population qualified at
different levels using LFS data are set out in the technical report for the main time series
model.
Thus, as an example, the model projects the proportion of males aged 16 that have no
qualifications, using the trends in such males over the period 2003 to 2012. It repeats this
exercise for males of each age, from 16 to 69, and for each qualification level (no
qualifications, QCF1, …, QCF3, QCF4-6 and QCF7-8). It then repeats this exercise for
females and for males and females combined. The expectation is that the weighted sum of
23
Bosworth, D.L. (2012). UK Qualifications Projections – “Time Series” Model. Technical Report. (draft available from the
author).
24
25
Bosworth, D.L. (2012). International Education Model, 2012. Technical Report. January. (draft available from the author).
Prosperity for all in the Global Economy - World Class Skills. (see fn. 1).
26
Qualification and Credit Framework levels QCF1, QCF2, QCF3, QCF4-6 and QCF7-8, plus those with no qualifications. See
Annex A.
18
UK Skill Levels and International Competitiveness, 2013
the projections for males and females should take a similar value to the projections for all
individuals combined.
Various constraints are placed on the projections, for example, that:

qualification proportions always sum to 100;

qualification numbers always sum to the ONS 2010-based population projections across
the different levels of the QCF.

each qualification proportion always lies between 0 and 100;

the proportion of those with no qualifications and QCF1 each have a lower limit of five
per cent.
There are several “special groups” that form a focus within the modelling process, in
particular:

those retiring and moving outside the labour force;

migrants and, in particular, the net difference in qualifications between immigrants and
emigrants.
The retirement group is both interesting and challenging in terms of the modelling process.
Prior to 2008, the LFS did not collect qualifications data from individuals over “retirement
age” if they are not in employment27. Clearly, the changes to the earliest age of retirement
for increasing numbers of people and the proposed changes for the future make it important
to say something about the qualifications of older individuals who, historically, would have
moved out of the labour force but, by 2020 and 2025 will be kept within it for longer periods.
Given the lack of LFS data, this was done by modelling the changing qualification mix of
individuals as they age from 50 to 59 for females and 60 to 64 for males, in order to say
what the qualification mix of 60-69 year old females and 65-69 year old males looks like.
The estimated qualifications mix for older individuals is projected forward in the same way as
for younger. In future modelling exercises, sufficient years of data will be available, and the
60-69 year olds will be modelled in the same way as younger people.
The effects of migration became a major issue over the last 20 years or so. The work
attempts to model immigrant and emigrant groups separately from the main, non-migratory
population of the UK. Immigrants are proxied by the group of individuals in the LFS who
were not resident in the UK one year earlier. There are at least two major problems with this
27
Since 2008 the Labour Force Survey has extended its definition of working age, in respect of qualification variables, to
include all individuals aged 16-69. However, since the projections draw on 10 years of historic data (2003-2012 in the current
iteration) it is not yet possible to take advantage of this development.
19
UK Skill Levels and International Competitiveness, 2013
group: first, while immigrant numbers can be quite large (e.g. circa 600,000), sample sizes in
the LFS are quite small, especially when broken down by gender, year of age and
qualification level; second, until 2011, the LFS allocated foreign qualifications to an “other”
category. They were then allocated using a “rule-of-thumb”, based upon some fairly old
General Household Survey data. Similarly, there is no direct survey information for the
emigrant group in the LFS, so the assumption is made that this group has the same
qualifications mix as the population as a whole.
Thus, the main time series qualification model proceeds by subtracting out cumulative net
migration from the UK population as a whole, before dealing separately with the
qualifications of immigrants, emigrants and the non-migratory population.
The historical
trends in qualification mix for those not resident in the UK one year ago and for the UK
population as a whole (proxying both the emigrant and non-migratory groups) are separately
projected forward to 2020 (and 2025). These are translated into numbers of immigrants,
emigrants and non-migrants, by level of qualification, from which the net migration numbers
can be isolated by level of qualification. Net migration by qualification (year of age and
gender) are then cumulated and added back to the projections of the non-migrant
population. All figures are constrained to sum to the ONS 2010-based projections.
A.3 International time series educational model
The international time series model takes the data from the OECD Education Database
(formerly Education at a Glance)28 as the principal input. These data are the proportions of
the population aged 25 to 64 with educational attainments at Low (Below Upper Secondary),
Intermediate (Upper Secondary) and High (Tertiary) levels.29 The data were revised to give
a much more consistent historical series a couple of years ago; since then, however, a small
number of problems appear to have crept back in.
The modelling simply takes the most recent ten years of data (at the time of writing 2002 to
2011) and fits linear trends which are then used to project forward the proportions of
individuals at the three education levels through to 2020 and beyond. All projections are
constrained so they sum to 100 for each country. The UK projections, however, are from the
model described in A.2 above, reporting only the 25-64 year old results.
28
http://www.oecd.org/document/2/0,3746,en_2649_39263238_48634114_1_1_1_1,00.html
These levels correspond broadly with below QCF2, QCF2-3 and QCF4 and above respectively. However, while there is
likely to be considerable overlap, at least for the UK, the match is still unlikely to be perfect and, in addition, there are numerous
problems with regard to consistency in such international comparisons.
29
20
UK Skill Levels and International Competitiveness, 2013
A number of countries pose particular problems; for example, Japan does not distinguish the
separate results for Low and Intermediate levels (i.e. they only report the combined results
for Below Upper Secondary / Upper Secondary alongside the Tertiary group).
The
combined groups are separated using increasingly out-of-date information – so Japan’s
results should be treated with caution. A number of countries do not have complete time
series data for the historic period.
For example, an extreme case is Chile, which first
participated in the Education Database in 2009 and only provided three years of data. While
it is a fairly easy decision to omit Chile from the comparator group because it is not possible
to make sensible projections from just two observations, other decisions on inclusion and
exclusion are more difficult. As a rule of thumb, as many countries as possible have been
included, even if this means adjustments to the historical data have to be made or somewhat
shorter historical periods of data have to be utilised.
21
A
Annex A: Qualifica
ation leve
els
S
Source: Qualificatiions can cross bo
oundaries – a roug
gh guide to compa
aring qualifications
s in the UK and Irreland
22
List of previous publications
Executive summaries and full versions of all these reports are available from
www.ukces.org.uk
Evidence Report 1
Skills for the Workplace: Employer Perspectives
Evidence Report 2
Working Futures 2007-2017
Evidence Report 3
Employee Demand for Skills: A Review of Evidence & Policy
Evidence Report 4
High Performance Working: A Synthesis of Key Literature
Evidence Report 5
High Performance Working: Developing a Survey Tool
Evidence Report 6
Review of Employer Collective Measures: A Conceptual Review from a Public
Policy Perspective
Evidence Report 7
Review of Employer Collective Measures: Empirical Review
Evidence Report 8
Review of Employer Collective Measures: Policy Review
Evidence Report 9
Review of Employer Collective Measures: Policy Prioritisation
Evidence Report 10
Review of Employer Collective Measures: Final Report
Evidence Report 11
The Economic Value of Intermediate Vocational Education and Qualifications
Evidence Report 12
UK Employment and Skills Almanac 2009
Evidence Report 13
National Employer Skills Survey 2009: Key Findings
Evidence Report 14
Strategic Skills Needs in the Biomedical Sector: A Report for the National Strategic Skills Audit
for England, 2010
Evidence Report 15
Strategic Skills Needs in the Financial Services Sector: A Report for the National Strategic Skills
Audit for England, 2010
23
Evidence Report 16
Strategic Skills Needs in the Low carbon Energy generation Sector: A Report for the National
Strategic Skills Audit for England, 2010
Evidence Report 17
Horizon Scanning and Scenario Building: Scenarios for Skills 2020
Evidence Report 18
High Performance Working: A Policy Review
Evidence Report 19
High Performance Working: Employer Case Studies
Evidence Report 20
A Theoretical Review of Skill Shortages and Skill Needs
Evidence Report 21
High Performance Working: Case Studies Analytical Report
Evidence Report 22
The Value of Skills: An Evidence Review
Evidence Report 23
National Employer Skills Survey for England 2009: Main Report
Evidence Report 24
Perspectives and Performance of Investors in People: A Literature Review
Evidence Report 25
UK Employer Perspectives Survey 2010
Evidence Report 26
UK Employment and Skills Almanac 2010
Evidence Report 27
Exploring Employer Behaviour in relation to Investors in People
Evidence Report 28
Investors in People - Research on the New Choices Approach
Evidence Report 29
Defining and Measuring Training Activity
Evidence Report 30
Product strategies, skills shortages and skill updating needs in England: New evidence from the
National Employer Skills Survey, 2009
Evidence Report 31
Skills for Self-employment
Evidence Report 32
The impact of student and migrant employment on opportunities for low skilled people
Evidence Report 33
Rebalancing the Economy Sectorally and Spatially: An Evidence Review
24
Evidence Report 34
Maximising Employment and Skills in the Offshore Wind Supply Chain
Evidence Report 35
The Role of Career Adaptability in Skills Supply
Evidence Report 36
The Impact of Higher Education for Part-Time Students
Evidence Report 37
International approaches to high performance working
Evidence Report 38
The Role of Skills from Worklessness to Sustainable Employment with Progression
Evidence Report 39
Skills and Economic Performance: The Impact of Intangible Assets on UK Productivity Growth
Evidence Report 40
A Review of Occupational Regulation and its Impact
Evidence Report 41
Working Futures 2010-2020
Evidence Report 42
International Approaches to the Development of Intermediate Level Skills and Apprenticeships
Evidence Report 43
Engaging low skilled employees in workplace learning
Evidence Report 44
Developing Occupational Skills Profiles for the UK
Evidence Report 45
UK Commission’s Employer Skills Survey 2011: UK Results
Evidence Report 46
UK Commission’s Employer Skills Survey 2011: England Results
Evidence Report 47
Understanding Training Levies
Evidence Report 48
Sector Skills Insights: Advanced Manufacturing
Evidence Report 49
Sector Skills Insights: Digital and Creative
Evidence Report 50
Sector Skills Insights: Construction
Evidence Report 51
Sector Skills Insights: Energy
25
Evidence Report 52
Sector Skills Insights: Health and Social Care
Evidence Report 53
Sector Skills Insights: Retail
Evidence Report 54
Research to support the evaluation of Investors in People: Employer Survey
Evidence Report 55
Sector Skills Insights: Tourism
Evidence Report 56
Sector Skills Insights: Professional and Business Services
Evidence Report 57
Sector Skills Insights: Education
Evidence Report 58
Evaluation of Investors in People: Employer Case Studies
Evidence Report 59
An Initial Formative Evaluation of Best Market Solutions
Evidence Report 60
UK Commission’s Employer Skills Survey 2011: Northern Ireland National Report
Evidence Report 61
UK Skill levels and international competitiveness
Evidence Report 62
UK Commission’s Employer Skills Survey 2011: Wales Results
Evidence Report 63
UK Commission’s Employer Skills Survey 2011: Technical Report
Evidence Report 64
The UK Commission’s Employer Perspectives Survey 2012
Evidence Report 65
UK Commission’s Employer Skills Survey 2011: Scotland Results
Evidence Report 66
Understanding Employer Networks
Evidence Report 67
Understanding Occupational Regulation
Evidence Report 68
Research to support the Evaluation of Investors in People: Employer Survey (Year 2)
Evidence Report 69
Qualitative Evaluation of the Employer Investment Fund Phase 1
26
Evidence Report 70
Research to support the evaluation of Investors in People: employer case studies (Year 2)
Evidence Report 71
High Performance Working in the Employer Skills Surveys
Evidence Report 72
Training in Recession: The impact of the 2008-2009 recession on training at work
Evidence Report 73
Technology and skills in the Digital Industries
Evidence Report 74
Technology and skills in the Construction Industry
Evidence Report 75
Secondary analysis of employer surveys: Urban/rural differences in access and barriers to jobs
and training
Evidence Report 76
Technology and Skills in the Aerospace and Automotive Industries
Evidence Report 77
Supply of and demand for High-Level STEM skills
Evidence Report 78
A Qualitative Evaluation of Demand-led Skills Solutions: Growth and Innovation Fund and
Employer Investment Fund
Evidence Report 79
A Qualitative Evaluation of Demand-led Skills Solutions: standards and frameworks
Evidence Report 80
Forecasting the Benefits of the UK Commission’s Programme of Investments
Evidence Report 81
UK Commission’s Employer Skills Survey 2013: UK Results
Evidence Report 82
UK Commission’s Employer Skills Survey 2013: Technical Report
Evidence Report 82
UK Commission’s Employer Skills Survey 2013: Technical Report
Evidence Report 83
Working Futures 2012-2022
Evidence Report 84
The Future of Work: Jobs and skills in 2030
27
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© UKCES 1st Ed/08.14
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