Genetic Diversity and Comparative Development
Oded Galor
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Introduction
Comparative Development
Oded Galor
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Income per Capita across the Globe in 2010
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Introduction
Comparative Development
Fundamental Research Questions
What is the origin of the vast inequality in income per capita across
countries and regions?
What is the impact of deep-rooted factors on the observed patterns of
comparative development?
What fraction of the variation in income per capita across countries
could be attributed to the long shadow of history?
How can policy mitigate the persistent e¤ect of historical factors on
comparative development?
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Introduction
The Main Hypothesis
Main Hypothesis
The migration of humans out of Africa 70,000-90,000 BP a¤ected
The distribution of genetic diversity across the globe
Comparative economic development
Accounts for 16% of the variation in the income per capita across
countries
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Foundations
Main Building Blocks of the Proposed Hypothesis
The Serial Founder E¤ect:
Lower genetic diversity among indigenous populations at greater migratory distances from East Africa
Existence of an optimal level of genetic diversity (for each stage of development)
Balances between:
The negative e¤ect on the cohesiveness of society
The positive e¤ect on innovations
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Foundations
The Serial Founder E¤ect
The Serial Founder E¤ect
Exodus of modern humans from Africa (70-90K BP)
Departing populations carry only a subset of the genetic diversity of their
parental colonies
=) Lower genetic diversity among indigenous populations at greater
migratory distances from East Africa
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Foundations
The Serial Founder E¤ect
An Illustration of the Serial Founder E¤ect
3 Alleles
Original Population
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Foundations
The Serial Founder E¤ect
An Illustration of the Serial Founder E¤ect
3 Alleles
2 Alleles
Original Population
Founder Population
Increasing Migratory Distance
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Foundations
The Serial Founder E¤ect
An Illustration of the Serial Founder E¤ect
3 Alleles
2 Alleles
1 Allele (each)
Original Population
Founder Population
Sub-founder Populations
Increasing Migratory Distance
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Foundations
Genetic Diversity
Genetic Diversity – Measurement
Expected Heterozygosity – Index of Genetic Diversity:
The probability that two individuals, selected at random from a given
population, are genetically di¤erent from one another (in a certain spectrum of genes)
Measuring Expected Heterozygosity:
Gene-speci…c index capturing its allelic (“gene variant”) frequencies
in the population
Average over a gene-speci…c index for large spectrum of genes
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Foundations
Genetic Diversity
The Expected Heterozygosity Index
Hλ
Locus-speci…c heterozygosity:
For a gene λ with kλ alleles, where piλ is the observed frequency of the
i-th allele in gene λ :
kλ
Hλ = 1
∑ (piλ )2
i =1
H
Expected heterozygosity
Averaging over m genes:
H=
Oded Galor
1 m
Hλ = 1
m λ∑
=1
1 m kλ λ 2
∑ ( pi )
m λ∑
=1 i =1
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Foundations
Genetic Diversity
Data: Human Genome Diversity Project (HGDP)
Designed to study GD in isolated populations in order to shed light on:
The scope of human diversity
The journey of humankind from Africa
Consists of 53 ethnic groups
(52 originally)
Isolated geographically
Resided in the same location for a prolonged period of time
Display insigni…cant genetic admixture
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Foundations
Genetic Diversity
HGDP Ethnic Groups
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Foundations
Genetic Diversity
The Spatial Distribution of the HGDP Ethnic Groups
+ Marks the location of an HGDP ethnic group.
o Marks an approximate critical juncture in the journey of humankind from Africa.
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Foundations
Genetic Diversity
Migratory Distance from Africa and Genetic Diversity
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Foundations
Genetic Diversity
Expected Heterozygosity in Microsatellites
Expected heterozygosity calculated for the 53 ethnic groups in the HGDP
using allelic frequencies for 783 microsatellite loci
Advantage of using microsatellites – a class of non-protein-coding regions of
the human genome:
Selectively neutral
Ensures that the observed cross-sectional variation in diversity is
not due to di¤erential forces of natural selection
Mutationally active
Facilitates the construction of “population trees” and thus the
genealogical and migratory histories of populations
Expected heterozygosity in microsatellites is positively correlated with
phenotypic and cultural diversity
Permitting an exploration of the e¤ect of GD on economic outcomes
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Foundations
Genetic Diversity
Distance from Africa and Craniometric Diversity
Source: Manica et al. (Nature 2007)
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Foundations
Genetic Diversity
Distance from Africa and Linguistic Diversity
Source: Atkinson (Science 2011)
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Foundations
Genetic Diversity
Distance from Africa and Dental Diversity
Source: Hanihara (American Journal of Physical Anthropology, 2008)
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Foundations
Genetic Diversity
Distance from Africa and Height Diversity
Source: Galor and Klemp (2014)
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Foundations
Genetic Diversity
Distance from Africa and Pelvic Bone Diversity
Source: Betti et al. (Human Biology, 2012)
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Foundations
Trade-o¤s: Diversity and Productivity
Trade-o¤s: Human Diversity and Productivity
Existence of an optimal level of genetic diversity (for each stage of development)
Balances between:
The negative e¤ect on the cohesiveness of society
The positive e¤ect on innovations
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Foundations
Trade-o¤s: Diversity and Productivity
The Costs of Diversity
Genetic diversity increases the incidence of:
Mistrust
Civil con‡icts
=) Ine¢ ciency in the operation of the economy relative to its PPF
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Foundations
Trade-o¤s: Diversity and Productivity
The Bene…ts of Diversity
Genetic diversity
Increases the likelihood for the existence of traits that are complementary
to the adoption of newly technologies
Generates complementary in the production process
Increases the upper tail of the ability distribution that matters for innovations
=) Diversity fosters innovations & expands the production possibilities
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Foundations
Trade-o¤s: Diversity and Productivity
Optimal Diversity
Positive but diminishing e¤ects of:
Genetic diversity on innovations
Homogeneity on cohesiveness
=)
A hump-shaped relationship between diversity and develop-
ment
=) Optimal level of genetic diversity
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Genetic Diversity and Development
(for each stage of development)
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Foundations
Trade-o¤s: Diversity and Productivity
The Optimal Level of Genetic Diversity
y ( )
0
Oded Galor
*
1
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
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Foundations
Trade-o¤s: Diversity and Productivity
The Rise in the Optimal Diversity – Faster Technological Progress
y(; g )
y(; g H )
y(; g L )
0
Oded Galor
* ( g L ) * ( g H )
1
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
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Stages of the Analysis
Empirical Strategy
Cross-country Analysis
Pre-colonial era:
Observed genetic diversity (21 countries)
Projected diversity (145 countries)
Contemporary analysis:
Projected diversity (145 countries)
Across ethnic groups
Observed genetic diversity (232 ethnic groups)
Projected diversity (1331 ethnic groups)
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Historical Analysis
Comparative Development: 1-1500 CE
Comparative Development in the Pre-Colonial Era
The e¤ect of GD on productivity in the years 1-1500 CE:
Productivity is captured by population density (Malthusian Epoch)
Disentangle e¤ects of:
Genetic Diversity
Geographic Factors: Land productivity, Absolute latitude
Time elapsed since the Neolithic Revolution
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Historical Analysis
Comparative Development: 1-1500 CE
Determinants of Productivity: Channels
Productivity
(Population Density)
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Historical Analysis
Comparative Development: 1-1500 CE
Determinants of Productivity: Channels
Human Genetic
Diversity
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Productivity
(Population Density)
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Historical Analysis
Comparative Development: 1-1500 CE
Determinants of Productivity: Channels
Human Genetic
Diversity
Productivity
(Population Density)
Migratory Distance from
East Africa
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Historical Analysis
Comparative Development: 1-1500 CE
Determinants of Productivity: Channels
Timing of the Neolithic
Revolution
Human Genetic
Diversity
Productivity
(Population Density)
Migratory Distance from
East Africa
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Historical Analysis
Comparative Development: 1-1500 CE
Determinants of Productivity: Channels
Timing of the Neolithic
Revolution
Human Genetic
Diversity
Productivity
(Population Density)
Land Productivity
• Percentage of Arable Land
• Suitability of Land for Agriculture
• Absolute Latitude
Migratory Distance from
East Africa
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Historical Analysis
Analysis using Actual Diversity
Observed Diversity and Development in 1500: Unconditional Relationship
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Historical Analysis
Analysis using Actual Diversity
Empirical Model I
Testing the hypothesis using observed genetic diversity from the HGDP
21-country sample
Empirical speci…cation
0
0
ln Xi + β5t
ln ∆i + εit
ln Pit = β0t + β1t Gi + β2t Gi2 + β3t ln Ti + β4t
P it
Gi
Ti
Xi
∆i
εit
population density in country i in year t
actual genetic diversity of country i
years elapsed since the Neolithic Revolution (NR) for country i
vector of land productivity controls for country i
vector of continental dummies for country i
a country-year speci…c error term for country i
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Historical Analysis
Analysis using Actual Diversity
Actual Diversity and Comparative Development in 1500
(1)
(2)
(3)
(4)
(5)
Dependent Variable: Log Population Density in 1500
Genetic Diversity
413.51***
(97.32)
225.44***
(73.78)
203.82*
(97.64)
Genetic Diversity Sqr.
-302.65***
(73.34)
-161.16**
(56.16)
-145.72*
(80.41)
1.21***
(0.37)
1.14
(0.66)
0.73**
(0.28)
0.15
(0.18)
0.52***
(0.17)
-0.16
(0.13)
0.55*
(0.26)
-0.13
(0.17)
0.73*
(0.38)
0.57*
(0.29)
0.59
(0.33)
0.699
(0.015)
0.699
(0.055)
No
21
0.89
Yes
21
0.90
Log Years since NR
2.40***
(0.27)
Log % of Arable Land
Log Absolute Latitude
Log Agri. Suitability
Optimal Diversity
Continent Dummies
Observations
R-squared
0.683
(0.008)
No
21
0.42
No
21
0.54
No
21
0.57
Robust standard errors in parentheses; *** p <0.01, ** p <0.05, * p <0.1.
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Historical Analysis
Analysis using Actual Diversity
Migratory Distance from East Africa vs. Genetic Diversity
(1)
(2)
(3)
(4)
(5)
Dependent Variable: Log Population Density in 1500
Genetic Diversity
417.003***
(90.909)
300.978***
(76.371)
361.421**
(121.429)
Genetic Diversity Sqr.
-306.218***
(68.308)
-241.755***
(61.099)
-268.515***
(87.342)
Migratory Distance
0.463***
(0.142)
-0.003
(0.178)
Migratory Distance Sqr.
-0.021***
(0.006)
-0.010
(0.009)
Mobility Index
0.353**
(0.127)
0.051
(0.154)
Mobility Index Sqr.
-0.012***
(0.004)
-0.003
(0.006)
Observations
R-squared
P-value
Joint
Joint
Joint
18
0.43
18
0.30
18
0.30
for:
Sig. of Diversity and its Sqr.
Sig. of Distance and its Sqr.
Sig. of Mobility and its Sqr.
18
0.47
18
0.43
0.006
0.320
0.027
0.905
Robust standard errors in parentheses; *** p <0.01, ** p <0.05, * p <0.1.
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Historical Analysis
Analysis using Predicted Diversity
Empirical Model II
Testing the hypothesis using projected genetic diversity
145-country sample
Empirical speci…cation
0
0
ln Xi + β5t
ln ∆i + εit
ln Pit = β0t + β1t Ĝi + β2t Ĝi2 + β3t ln Ti + β4t
P it
Ĝ i
Ti
Xi
∆i
εit
population density of country i in year t
genetic diversity of country i projected by migratory distance
years elapsed since the Neolithic Revolution (NR) for country i
vector of land productivity controls for country i
vector of continental dummies for country i
a country-year speci…c error term for country i
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Historical Analysis
Analysis using Predicted Diversity
Oded Galor
6
+
76
0,
5
,7
75
-0
4
,7
-0
74
0,
3
,7
-0
0,
1
,7
-0
73
0,
5
,7
-0
65
0,
0,
71
,6
-0
62
0,
0,
57
-0
,6
2
Projected Genetic Diversity across Countries in the Pre-Colonial Era
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Historical Analysis
Analysis using Predicted Diversity
Oded Galor
6
+
76
0,
5
,7
75
-0
4
,7
-0
74
0,
3
,7
-0
0,
1
,7
-0
73
0,
5
,7
-0
65
0,
0,
71
,6
-0
62
0,
0,
57
-0
,6
2
Genetic Diversity across Countries in the Pre-Colonial Era
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Historical Analysis
Analysis using Predicted Diversity
Predicted Diversity and Comparative Development in 1500
(1)
(2)
(3)
(4)
(5)
(6)
Dependent Variable is Log Population Density in 1500
Predicted Diversity
250.99***
(68.26)
213.54***
(63.50)
203.02***
(61.05)
195.42***
(56.09)
199.73**
(80.51)
Predicted Diversity Sqr.
-177.40***
(50.22)
-152.11***
(46.65)
-141.98***
(44.83)
-137.98***
(40.84)
-146.17***
(56.26)
1.16***
(0.15)
1.24***
(0.24)
Log Years since NR
1.29***
(0.18)
1.05***
(0.19)
Log % of Arable Land
0.52***
(0.12)
0.40***
(0.09)
0.39***
(0.10)
Log Absolute Latitude
-0.17*
(0.09)
-0.34***
(0.09)
-0.42***
(0.12)
Log Agri. Suitability
0.19
(0.12)
0.31***
(0.10)
0.26***
(0.10)
0.702
(0.025)
0.715
(0.110)
0.708
(0.051)
0.683
(0.110)
No
145
0.38
No
145
0.50
No
145
0.67
Yes
145
0.69
Optimal Diversity
Continent Dummies
Observations
R-squared
0.707
(0.021)
No
145
0.22
No
145
0.26
Bootstrap standard errors in parentheses; *** p <0.01, ** p <0.05, * p <0.1.
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Historical Analysis
Analysis using Predicted Diversity
Predicted Diversity and Comparative Development in 1500
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Historical Analysis
Analysis using Predicted Diversity
Interpretations – Diversity and Comparative Development in 1500
Optimal GD in 1500 = 0.6832
GD in Japan = 0.6835
Increasing GD of the most homogeneous population in South America by:
0.11 =) 6-fold increase in population density in 1500
0.01 =) 44% increase in population density in 1500
Decreasing GD of the most heterogeneous population in East Africa by:
0.09 =) 3-fold increase in population density in 1500
0.01 =) 18% increase in population density in 1500
0.01 change from the optimal level of GD
=) 1.4% decrease in population density in 1500
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Historical Analysis
Analysis using Predicted Diversity
Predicted Diversity and Comparative Development in Earlier Periods
(1)
(2)
(3)
(4)
Dependent Variable: Log Population Density
1000 CE
1000 CE
1 CE
1 CE
Predicted Diversity
154.91**
(62.39)
201.24**
(95.58)
134.77**
(63.45)
231.69**
(115.83)
Predicted Diversity Sqr.
-109.81**
(45.70)
-145.89**
(66.79)
-96.25**
(46.49)
-166.86**
(81.13)
Log Years since NR
1.37***
(0.15)
1.60***
(0.27)
1.66***
(0.21)
2.13***
(0.44)
Log % of Arable Land
0.37***
(0.10)
0.37***
(0.12)
0.31***
(0.12)
0.35***
(0.13)
Log Absolute Latitude
-0.38***
(0.10)
-0.37***
(0.14)
-0.12
(0.12)
-0.12
(0.13)
Log Agri. Suitability
0.21**
(0.10)
0.19*
(0.11)
0.24*
(0.12)
0.21*
(0.12)
Optimal Diversity
0.705
(0.108)
0.690
(0.293)
0.705
(0.188)
0.694
(0.194)
No
140
0.61
Yes
140
0.62
No
126
0.59
Yes
126
0.61
Continent Dummies
Observations
R-squared
Bootstrap standard errors in parentheses; *** p <0.01, ** p <0.05, * p <0.1.
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Historical Analysis
Analysis using Predicted Diversity
Predicted Diversity and Comparative Development in 1000 CE
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Historical Analysis
Analysis using Predicted Diversity
Predicted Diversity and Comparative Development in 1 CE
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Historical Analysis
Robustness Analysis
The Role of Omitted Variables
Timing of the Neolithic
Revolution
Human Genetic
Diversity
Productivity
(Population Density)
Land Productivity
• Percentage of Arable Land
• Suitability of Land for Agriculture
• Absolute Latitude
Migratory Distance from
East Africa
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Historical Analysis
Robustness Analysis
The Role of Omitted Variables
Timing of the Neolithic
Revolution
Human Genetic
Diversity
Productivity
(Population Density)
Land Productivity
• Percentage of Arable Land
• Suitability of Land for Agriculture
• Absolute Latitude
Migratory Distance from
East Africa
Omitted Variables
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Historical Analysis
Robustness Analysis
The Role of Omitted Variables
Timing of the Neolithic
Revolution
Human Genetic
Diversity
Productivity
(Population Density)
Land Productivity
• Percentage of Arable Land
• Suitability of Land for Agriculture
• Absolute Latitude
Migratory Distance from
East Africa
Omitted Variables
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Historical Analysis
Robustness Analysis
The Role of Omitted Variables – Alternative Distances
Timing of the Neolithic
Revolution
Human Genetic
Diversity
Productivity
(Population Density)
Migratory Distance from
East Africa
Land Productivity
• Percentage of Arable Land
• Suitability of Land for Agriculture
• Absolute Latitude
Alternative Distances
• Aerial Distance from Africa
• Distance from Placebo Origins
• Distance from Technological Frontier
Omitted Variables
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Historical Analysis
Robustness Analysis
Robustness: Distances from Placebo Origins
(1)
(2)
(3)
(4)
(5)
Dependent Variable: Log Population Density in 1500
Distance calculated from:
Migratory Distance
Addis Ababa
Addis Ababa
0.138**
(0.061)
Migratory Distance Sqr.
-0.008***
(0.002)
Aerial Distance
London
Tokyo
Mexico City
-0.040
(0.063)
0.052
(0.145)
-0.063
(0.099)
-0.002
(0.002)
-0.006
(0.007)
0.005
(0.004)
-0.008
(0.106)
-0.005
(0.006)
Aerial Distance Sqr.
Log Years since NR
1.160***
(0.144)
1.158***
(0.138)
1.003***
(0.164)
1.047***
(0.225)
1.619***
(0.277)
Log % of Arable Land
0.401***
(0.091)
0.488***
(0.102)
0.357***
(0.092)
0.532***
(0.089)
0.493***
(0.094)
Log Absolute Latitude
-0.342***
(0.091)
-0.263***
(0.097)
-0.358***
(0.112)
-0.334***
(0.099)
-0.239***
(0.083)
Log Agri. Suitability
0.305***
(0.091)
0.254**
(0.102)
0.344***
(0.092)
0.178**
(0.080)
0.261***
(0.092)
145
0.67
145
0.59
145
0.67
145
0.59
145
0.63
Observations
R-squared
Robust standard errors in parentheses; *** p <0.01, ** p <0.05, * p <0.1.
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Historical Analysis
Robustness Analysis
Regional Technological Frontiers
City & Modern Location
Continent
Sociopolitical Entity
Cairo, Egypt
Fez, Morocco
London, UK
Paris, France
Constantinople, Turkey
Peking, China
Tenochtitlan, Mexico
Cuzco, Peru
Africa
Africa
Europe
Europe
Asia
Asia
Americas
Americas
Mamluk Sultanate
Marinid Kingdom of Fez
Tudor Dynasty
Valois-Orléans Dynasty
Ottoman Empire
Ming Dynasty
Aztec Civilization
Inca Civilization
1500
1500
1500
1500
1500
1500
1500
1500
CE
CE
CE
CE
CE
CE
CE
CE
Cairo, Egypt
Kairwan, Tunisia
Constantinople, Turkey
Cordoba, Spain
Baghdad, Iraq
Kaifeng, China
Tollan, Mexico
Huari, Peru
Africa
Africa
Europe
Europe
Asia
Asia
Americas
Americas
Fatimid Caliphate
Berber Zirite Dynasty
Byzantine Empire
Caliphate of Cordoba
Abbasid Caliphate
Song Dynasty
Classic Maya Civilization
Huari Culture
1000
1000
1000
1000
1000
1000
1000
1000
CE
CE
CE
CE
CE
CE
CE
CE
Alexandria, Egypt
Carthage, Tunisia
Athens, Greece
Rome, Italy
Luoyang, China
Seleucia, Iraq
Teotihuacán, Mexico
Cahuachi, Peru
Africa
Africa
Europe
Europe
Asia
Asia
Americas
Americas
Roman Empire
Roman Empire
Roman Empire
Roman Empire
Han Dynasty
Seleucid Dynasty
Pre-classic Maya Civilization
Nazca Culture
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
CE
CE
CE
CE
CE
CE
CE
CE
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Period
53 / 94
Historical Analysis
Robustness Analysis
Robustness to Distance from Regional Technological Frontiers
(1)
(2)
(3)
Log Population Density
1500 CE
Log Population Density
1000 CE
Log Population Density
1 CE
Predicted Diversity
156.74**
(77.98)
183.77**
(91.20)
215.86**
(106.50)
Predicted Diversity Sqr.
-114.63**
(54.67)
Yes
-134.61**
(63.65)
Yes
-157.72**
(74.82)
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
Log Years since NR
Land Prod. Controls
Log Distance to
Frontier in 1500 CE
-0.19***
(0.07)
Log Distance to
Frontier in 1000 CE
-0.23**
(0.11)
Log Distance to
Frontier in 1 CE
Optimal Diversity
Continent Dummies
Observations
R-squared
-0.30***
(0.10)
0.684
(0.169)
0.683
(0.218)
0.684
(0.266)
Yes
145
0.72
Yes
140
0.64
Yes
126
0.66
Bootstrap standard errors in parentheses; *** p <0.01, ** p <0.05, * p <0.1.
Oded Galor
Genetic Diversity and Development
54 / 94
Historical Analysis
Robustness Analysis
The Role of Omitted Variables
Timing of the Neolithic
Revolution
Human Genetic
Diversity
Productivity
(Population Density)
Migratory Distance from
East Africa
Land Productivity
• Percentage of Arable Land
• Suitability of Land for Agriculture
• Absolute Latitude
Alternative Distances
• Aerial Distance from Africa
• Distance from Placebo Origins
• Distance from Technological Frontier
Omitted Variables
Oded Galor
Genetic Diversity and Development
55 / 94
Historical Analysis
Robustness Analysis
The Role of Omitted Variables – Microgeographic Factors
Timing of the Neolithic
Revolution
Human Genetic
Diversity
Productivity
(Population Density)
Land Productivity
• Percentage of Arable Land
• Suitability of Land for Agriculture
• Absolute Latitude
Migratory Distance from
East Africa
Alternative Distances
• Aerial Distance from Africa
• Distance from Placebo Origins
• Distance from Technological Frontier
Omitted Variables
Microgeographic Factors
•
Elevation & Ruggedness
• Distance from Waterways
Oded Galor
Genetic Diversity and Development
56 / 94
Historical Analysis
Robustness Analysis
Robustness to Microgeographic Factors
(1)
(2)
(3)
(4)
(5)
Dependent Variable: Log Population Density in 1500
Predicted Diversity
159.92***
(56.00)
153.20***
(53.39)
157.07**
(78.82)
150.02***
(49.36)
157.06**
(68.61)
Predicted Diversity Sqr.
-110.39***
(41.08)
Yes
Yes
-105.33***
(39.11)
Yes
Yes
-112.78**
(55.48)
Yes
Yes
-102.76***
(36.23)
Yes
Yes
-114.99**
(48.26)
Yes
Yes
Log Years since NR
Land Prod. Controls
Mean Elevation
-0.48**
(0.23)
0.51*
(0.27)
0.50*
(0.27)
Roughness
5.15***
(1.77)
3.09*
(1.74)
4.08**
(1.84)
Roughness Sqr.
-7.05**
(3.11)
-7.05**
(2.96)
-7.63***
(2.91)
Distance to Nearest
Waterway
-0.49***
(0.18)
-0.44**
(0.18)
-0.47**
(0.18)
-0.39**
(0.18)
0.70**
(0.28)
0.73**
(0.31)
1.11***
(0.29)
1.18***
(0.29)
0.724
(0.201)
0.727
(0.190)
0.696
(0.187)
0.730
(0.229)
0.683
(0.095)
No
145
0.69
No
145
0.74
Yes
145
0.75
No
145
0.76
Yes
145
0.78
% Land within 100 km
of Waterway
Optimal Diversity
Continent Dummies
Observations
R-squared
Bootstrap standard errors in parentheses; *** p <0.01, ** p <0.05, * p <0.1.
Oded Galor
Genetic Diversity and Development
57 / 94
Historical Analysis
Robustness Analysis
The Role of Omitted Variables
Timing of the Neolithic
Revolution
Human Genetic
Diversity
Productivity
(Population Density)
Land Productivity
• Percentage of Arable Land
• Suitability of Land for Agriculture
• Absolute Latitude
Migratory Distance from
East Africa
Alternative Distances
• Aerial Distance from Africa
• Distance from Placebo Origins
• Distance from Technological Frontier
Omitted Variables
Microgeographic Factors
•
Elevation & Ruggedness
• Distance from Waterways
Oded Galor
Genetic Diversity and Development
58 / 94
Historical Analysis
Robustness Analysis
The Role of Omitted Variables – Biogeography
Timing of the Neolithic
Revolution
Human Genetic
Diversity
Productivity
(Population Density)
Land Productivity
• Percentage of Arable Land
• Suitability of Land for Agriculture
• Absolute Latitude
Migratory Distance from
East Africa
Alternative Distances
• Aerial Distance from Africa
• Distance from Placebo Origins
• Distance from Technological Frontier
Omitted Variables
Microgeographic Factors
•
Elevation & Ruggedness
• Distance from Waterways
Biogeographic Factors
• Climate
• Domesticable Species
• Orientation & Size of Continents
Oded Galor
Genetic Diversity and Development
59 / 94
Historical Analysis
Robustness Analysis
Robustness to Biogeography
(1)
(2)
(3)
(4)
(5)
Dependent Variable is Log Population Density in 1500
Predicted Diversity
216.85***
(62.06)
252.08***
(70.81)
174.41***
(62.75)
212.12***
(72.13)
274.92***
(72.12)
Predicted Diversity Sqr.
-154.75***
(45.19)
-180.65***
(51.89)
-125.14***
(45.72)
-151.58***
(52.79)
-197.12***
(52.40)
Yes
Yes
1.16***
(0.31)
Yes
Domesticable Plants
0.02
(0.02)
0.42
(0.27)
0.04
(0.30)
-0.01
(0.01)
-0.01
(0.02)
0.37*
(0.22)
-0.17
(0.27)
-0.01
(0.01)
0.00
(0.02)
Domesticable Animals
0.15**
(0.06)
0.12
(0.07)
-0.01
(0.07)
Log Years since NR
Land Prod. Controls
1.30***
(0.16)
Yes
Climate
Orientation of Axis
Size of Continent
Optimal Diversity
Observations
R-squared
Yes
0.62***
(0.14)
0.28
(0.33)
-0.01
(0.02)
0.701
(0.123)
0.698
(0.016)
0.697
(0.159)
0.700
(0.045)
0.697
(0.041)
96
0.74
96
0.70
96
0.70
96
0.72
96
0.78
Bootstrap standard errors in parentheses; *** p <0.01, ** p <0.05, * p <0.1.
Oded Galor
Genetic Diversity and Development
60 / 94
Historical Analysis
Robustness Analysis
Robustness to the Use of Urbanization Rates in 1500
(1)
(2)
(3)
(4)
(5)
Dependent Variable: Log Urbanization Rate in 1500
Predicted Diversity
120.583**
(51.618)
165.167***
(50.088)
93.467*
(48.769)
148.757***
(48.373)
234.410***
(67.321)
Predicted Diversity Square
-84.760**
(38.423)
-120.124***
(37.208)
-62.408*
(36.650)
-106.165***
(36.506)
-166.786***
(48.780)
0.402**
(0.202)
0.752***
(0.257)
Log Years since NR
0.457**
(0.224)
Log % of Arable Land
-0.097**
(0.043)
-0.116***
(0.044)
-0.119**
(0.052)
Log Absolute Latitude
-0.334**
(0.151)
-0.236
(0.155)
-0.151
(0.170)
Log Agri. Suitability
0.002
(0.057)
-0.036
(0.058)
0.031
(0.059)
No
80
0.40
No
80
0.44
Yes
80
0.51
Continent Dummies
Observations
R-squared
No
80
0.30
No
80
0.35
Bootstrap standard errors in parentheses; *** p < 0.01, ** p < 0.05, * p < 0.1.
Oded Galor
Genetic Diversity and Development
61 / 94
Historical Analysis
Robustness Analysis
Genetic Diversity and Urbanization Rates in 1500
Oded Galor
Genetic Diversity and Development
62 / 94
Contemporary Analysis
Measurement of Contemporary Diversity
Measure of Contemporary Genetic Diversity
The index of contemporary genetic diversity captures:
Proportional representation of each ancestral population within a country
Genetic diversity among the ancestral populations of each country
Projected based on migratory distance of this ancestral population
from East Africa
Genetic distance between all pairs of ancestral populations of each country
Projected based on migratory distance between these ancestral
populations
Oded Galor
Genetic Diversity and Development
63 / 94
Contemporary Analysis
Measurement of Contemporary Diversity
Projection of Pairwise Genetic Distances
Oded Galor
Genetic Diversity and Development
64 / 94
Contemporary Analysis
Measurement of Contemporary Diversity
Oded Galor
6
+
76
0,
5
,7
75
-0
4
,7
-0
74
0,
3
,7
-0
0,
2
,7
-0
73
0,
9
,7
-0
69
0,
0,
72
,6
-0
66
0,
0,
62
-0
,6
6
Genetic Diversity across Countries in 2000
Genetic Diversity and Development
65 / 94
Contemporary Analysis
Empirical Findings
Empirical Model III
Testing the hypothesis using contemporary genetic diversity
145-country sample
Empirical speci…cation
ln yi = γ0 +γ1 Ĝi +γ2 Ĝi2 +γ3 ln Ti +γ40 ln Xi +γ50 ln Λi +γ6 ln Γi +η i
yi
Ĝ i
income per capita of country i in the year 2000
index of contemporary genetic diversity of country i
Ti
Xi
years elapsed since the Neolithic Revolution (NR) for country i
vector of land productivity controls for country i
vector of institutional and cultural controls for country i
vector of additional geographical controls for country i
error term for country i
Λi
Γi
ηi
Oded Galor
Genetic Diversity and Development
66 / 94
Contemporary Analysis
Empirical Findings
Oded Galor
6
+
76
0,
5
,7
75
-0
4
,7
-0
74
0,
3
,7
-0
0,
2
,7
-0
73
0,
9
,7
-0
69
0,
0,
72
,6
-0
66
0,
0,
62
-0
,6
6
Genetic Diversity across Countries in 2000
Genetic Diversity and Development
67 / 94
Contemporary Analysis
Empirical Findings
Genetic Diversity and Economic Development in 2000 and 1500
(1)
(2)
(3)
Log Income per Capita
in 2000
(4)
Log Population Density
in 1500
Adjusted Diversity
204.610**
(88.466)
237.238***
(86.278)
244.960***
(85.454)
Adjusted Diversity Sqr.
-143.437**
(62.545)
-166.507***
(61.363)
-171.364***
(60.843)
Unadjusted. Diversity
198.587**
(79.110)
Unadjusted. Diversity Sqr.
-145.320***
(55.472)
Log Adj. Years since NR
0.061
(0.262)
0.002
(0.305)
Log Years since NR
-0.151
(0.186)
Log % of Arable Land
-0.110
(0.100)
-0.119
(0.107)
-0.137
(0.111)
0.378***
(0.100)
Log Absolute Latitude
0.164
(0.125)
0.172
(0.119)
0.192
(0.143)
-0.423***
(0.124)
Log Agri. Suitability
-0.193**
(0.095)
-0.177*
(0.102)
0.264***
(0.096)
0.713
(0.100)
0.712
(0.036)
-0.189*
(0.102)
0.047
(0.097)
0.715
(0.118)
Yes
143
0.57
Yes
143
0.57
Yes
143
0.68
Log Population Density in
1500
Optimal Diversity
Continent Dummies
Observations
R-squared
Yes
143
0.57
1.238***
(0.230)
0.683
(0.095)
Bootstrap standard errors in parentheses; *** p <0.01, ** p <0.05, * p <0.1.
Oded Galor
Genetic Diversity and Development
68 / 94
Contemporary Analysis
Empirical Findings
Genetic Diversity and Comparative Development in 2000
(1)
(2)
(3)
(4)
(5)
Dependent Variable: Log Income per Capita in 2000
Adjusted Diversity
315.282***
(84.215)
225.858***
(67.669)
204.102***
(66.984)
277.342***
(70.232)
215.675***
(63.954)
Adjusted Diversity Sqr.
-220.980***
(59.562)
-155.826***
(47.962)
-140.850***
(47.393)
-192.386***
(49.675)
-150.871***
(45.554)
Log Adj. Time from NR
-0.273
(0.269)
-0.218***
(0.061)
0.123
(0.122)
-0.092
(0.200)
-0.159***
(0.049)
0.083
(0.100)
2.359***
(0.269)
-0.062
(0.203)
-0.163***
(0.050)
0.080
(0.101)
2.069***
(0.377)
0.036
(0.029)
0.396*
(0.233)
-0.183***
(0.051)
0.009
(0.108)
1.826***
(0.417)
-0.046
(0.208)
-0.084
(0.056)
-0.006
(0.087)
0.880**
(0.418)
-0.333
(0.280)
-0.502
(0.351)
-0.122
(0.265)
-0.723**
(0.353)
Log % of Arable Land
Log Absolute Latitude
Social Infrastructure
Democracy
Ethnic Fractionalization
% Population at Risk
of Contracting Malaria
Avg. Schooling
Optimal Diversity
Continent Dummies
Legal Origin Dummies
Major Religion Shares
Observations
R-squared
Oded Galor
0.134***
(0.042)
0.713
0.725
0.725
(0.014)
(0.032)
(0.045)
Yes
Yes
Yes
No
No
No
No
No
No
109
109
109
0.74
0.84
0.85
Bootstrap standard errors in parentheses; *** p <0.01, ** p <0.05,
Genetic Diversity and Development
0.721
(0.008)
Yes
Yes
Yes
109
0.90
* p <0.1.
0.715
(0.073)
Yes
Yes
Yes
94
0.93
69 / 94
Contemporary Analysis
Empirical Findings
Genetic Diversity and Comparative Development in 2000
Oded Galor
Genetic Diversity and Development
70 / 94
Contemporary Analysis
Interpretations
Interpretations – Diversity and Comparative Development in 2000
Optimal GD in 2000 = 0.7208
GD in US = 0.7206
Increasing GD of Bolivia (0.63), the most homogeneous country, by:
0.09 =) 5.4-fold increase income per capita in 2000
From 9% to 40% of that of the US
0.01 =) 39% increase income per capita in 2000
Decreasing GD of Ethiopia (0.77), the most heterogeneous country, by:
0.05 =) 1.7-fold increase in income per capita in 2000
From 2% to 4% of that of the US
0.01 =) 21% increase in income per capita in 2000
0.01 change from the optimal level of GD
=) 1.9% decrease in income per capita in 2000
Oded Galor
Genetic Diversity and Development
71 / 94
Contemporary Analysis
Robustness
Addressing Endogenous Post-1500 Migrations
(1)
(2)
(3)
(4)
(5)
(6)
Full
Sample
Non
OECD
w/o Neo
Europes
w/o Latin
America
w/o Sub
Sahara
>0.97
Indigenous
Dependent Variable is Log Income per Capita in 2000
Adjusted Diversity
277.342***
(70.232)
271.979***
(88.479)
261.367***
(70.533)
412.222***
(148.584)
264.805**
(111.365)
304.735**
(111.588)
Adjusted Diversity Sqr.
-192.386***
(49.675)
-188.974***
(62.096)
-181.811***
(49.671)
-287.067***
(101.906)
-183.863**
(80.398)
-213.389**
(77.255)
Log Adj. Time of NR
0.396*
(0.233)
-0.183***
(0.051)
0.009
(0.108)
1.826***
(0.417)
-0.333
(0.280)
-0.502
(0.351)
-0.319
(0.204)
0.390
(0.281)
-0.236***
(0.060)
-0.021
(0.119)
1.313**
(0.579)
-0.437
(0.375)
-0.605
(0.381)
-0.196
(0.239)
0.355
(0.231)
-0.201***
(0.055)
-0.025
(0.111)
1.416***
(0.507)
-0.390
(0.300)
-0.591
(0.370)
-0.302
(0.219)
0.518*
(0.298)
-0.189***
(0.050)
-0.139
(0.126)
2.044***
(0.545)
-0.752**
(0.348)
-0.308
(0.486)
-0.520**
(0.252)
0.068
(0.442)
-0.211**
(0.097)
0.218
(0.242)
1.585***
(0.486)
0.104
(0.408)
-0.425
(0.581)
-0.528
(0.341)
0.448*
(0.254)
-0.104
(0.061)
-0.074
(0.130)
1.311*
(0.716)
-0.044
(0.412)
-0.153
(0.434)
-0.339
(0.312)
0.721
(0.083)
0.720
(0.085)
0.719
(0.015)
0.718
(0.023)
0.720
(0.180)
0.714
(0.012)
Log % of Arable Land
Log Absolute Latitude
Social Infrastructure
Ethnic Frac.
% Population at Risk
of Malaria
% Population Living
in Tropical Zones
Optimal Diversity
Observations
R-squared
Oded Galor
109
83
105
87
71
0.90
0.82
0.89
0.93
0.86
Bootstrap standard errors in parentheses; *** p <0.01, ** p <0.05, * p <0.1.
Genetic Diversity and Development
37
0.98
72 / 94
Contemporary Analysis
Robustness
Observed Genetic Diversity - 232 Ethnic Groups
Oded Galor
Genetic Diversity and Development
73 / 94
Contemporary Analysis
Robustness
Migratory Distance from Africa and Genetic Diversity
0.77
TZA
TZA
TZA
TZA
TZA
TZA
TZA
CMR
KEN
RWA
GAB
KEN
KEN
KEN
KEN
TZA
CMRCMR
ETH
KEN
KEN
TZA
TZA
CMR
GAB
CMR
ZAF
KEN
CMR
CMR
CMR
KEN
KEN
TZA
TZA
TCD
TCD
CAF
NGA
CMR
CMR
CMR
NGA
NGA GHA
KEN
KEN
TCD
CMR
GAB
KEN
KENTZA ZAR
TCD
TCD
COGAGO
CMR
CMR
NGA
NGA
KEN
ZAR
CMR
CMR
ZAF
TZA
TCD
TCD
CMR
NGA
CMR
CMR
NGA GHA
CIV
KEN
KEN
KEN
CMR
CMR
NGA
KEN
TCD
TCD
CMR
NGA
ETH ERI
CMR
SEN
ZAR
ZAF
SSD
CMR
SSD
KEN
SDN
SSD
TZA
KEN
SDN
NGA
TZA
YEM
NAM
DZA
CMR PAK
IND ITA
SYR
IND
PAK
PAK PAK
CHN
PSE
PAKIND IND
IND
IND
RUS
PAK
FRA
IND IND
AFG
RUS PAK
IND
INDITA
IND
IND IND
ITA
SYR
ESP
CHN
Genetic Diversity
PAK
GBR
RUS
CHN
MNG
KHM
CHN
CHN CHN
CHN
CHN
CHN
CHN
CHN
RUS
RUS
JPN
PNG
CHN
CHN
PNG
PNG
PNG
PNG
PNG
PNG
PNG
PNG
PNG
PNG
PNG
PNG
PNG
PNG
PNG
PNG
PNG
PNG
CHN
CAN
CAN
WSM
PNG
PNG
PNG
CAN
TWN
MEX
COL
PNG
PNG
PER
ARG
MEXGTM
NZL
PER
PNG
PNG
TWN
PNG
PNG
PNG
BRA
MEX
MEX
COL
PER
COL
PNG
PNG
PAN
COL
COL
COL
BRA
PNG
MEX
BRA
BRA
PAN
COL
0.56
BRA
0.0
2.5
Migratory Distance from East Africa (in 10,000 km)
South America
Oded Galor
North America
Oceania
Australia
Genetic Diversity and Development
Asia
Europe
Africa
74 / 94
Contemporary Analysis
Robustness
Genetic Diversity and Productivity of Ethnic Group
364
TWN
WSM
PNG
PNG
PNG
PNG
COL
CHN
PNG
MEX
CHN
PER
PNG
PNG
MEX
TWN
MEX
MEX
PNG
COL
PER
PNG
PER
PNG
PNG
PNG
PNG PNG
CAN
PNG
PAN
Control variables held at zero
Log Luminosity
COL
GTM
NZL
MEX
ARG
PNG BRA
PNG
PNG PNG
CHN
PNG
PNG PNG
CHN
PNG
JPN
PNG
PNG
PNGPNG
PSE
ESP
MNG
PAK
GBR
PAK
DZA
PAK
ITA
CHN
COL
KHM
BRA
BRABRA
RUS
CHN
PNG
PNG
PNG
PNG
CHN
PNG
COL
COL
CHN
CAN
CHN
CAN
PNG
RUS
CHN
COL
RUS CHN
IND PAK PAK
ITA
ITA
IND
IND
INDIND
AFG IND
PAK
IND
YEM IND
SYR
SYR
IND
IND
PAK
IND
IND
CHN
BRA
RUS
INDPAK
CHN
PAN
CHN
SDN
RUS
CMR
NGA
TCD
KENZAF
CIV
NGA
NGA
NAM
CMR
CMR
KEN
CMR
CMR
KEN
FRA
ZAF
CMR
CMR
ZAF
KEN
CMR CMR
SSD KEN
CMR
TZA
SDN
KEN KEN
CMR
NGA
TZA
KEN
KEN KEN
CMR
TZA TCD
ZAR TZA
TZA
TCD
GHA
TCD
TZACMR
CMR
KEN
CMR
CMR
CMR
TZA
NGANGA
NGARWATZA
KEN
KEN
CMR
CMR
TZA
CMR
AGO
GAB
TCDGABGAB
TZA
CMRCMR
CMR
TZA
KEN
ETH
KEN TCD
KEN
KEN
TCD
TCD
CMR
TZA
COG
TZA
NGA
KEN
ETH
NGA
ERI
KEN
TCD
TZA
KEN
CMR
CMR
KEN
GHA
TZA
SSD
SSD
ZAR
NGA
ZARKEN
CAF
350
TZA
SEN
0.561
0.768
Genetic Diversity
South America
Oded Galor
North America
Oceania
Australia
Genetic Diversity and Development
Asia
Europe
Africa
75 / 94
Contemporary Analysis
Robustness
Predicted Genetic Diversity - 1331 Ethnic Groups
Oded Galor
Genetic Diversity and Development
76 / 94
Mechanisms
Cost of Diversity
Genetic Diversity & Cultural Fragmentation
1
Global−sample relationship
TZA
CHE
ZAF
TGO
NZL IND
.5
NAM
EST GBR
UGA
GEO
LBN
URY
GAB YUG
AUS
NPL MDA
IRN
LBR
SAU
MMR GHA
SLELVABFA
MDG
CAN
ERI
MKD
HUN
BWA
LTU
ETH
VNM
GNB
BLR
OMN KWT
ZAR
KAZ
MLI
SLV
TCD
BELESP TJK CZE
KEN
SVN
ARE BGR
AFG
JOR
DOM
PHL
RUS
MNG
COL
AUT
SYR
CRI
MOZ
PAN
ROM
USA
HND
AZE
UZB BIH
KGZ
MWICMR ARM
GRC
PER
PRY
CIV
TUR
SEN
SVK
CHL
BTN AGO
NGA
SOM
CUB
LSO THA
IRQ
COG
NER
VEN
UKR PAK
HRV
LKA
DEU
ECU
ISR
MEX
FRA
TKM
FIN
BRA
NIC BEN
ALB
MYS
KHM
CAF
ZMB
SDN
DNK
GIN
LAO
SWZ
POL
MRT
IRL SWE
BGD
NLD EGY
ZWE
KOR
PRK
NOR
TUN
JPN
MAR
LBY
RWA
ITA
DZA PRT
BDI
CHN
YEM
0
BOL
−.5
(Residuals)
IDN
GMB
GTM
−1
Log number of ethnic groups in the national population
Genetic Diversity and the Number of Ethnic Groups across Countries
ARG
GUY
HTI
PNG
−.06
−.04
−.02
0
.02
.04
(Residuals)
Genetic diversity (ancestry adjusted)
Africa
Europe
Asia
Oceania
N. America
S. America
Relationship in the global sample; conditional on baseline geographical controls and continental fixed effects
Slope coefficient = 5.431; (robust) standard error = 1.798; t−statistic = 3.021; partial R−squared = 0.054; observations = 147
Oded Galor
Genetic Diversity and Development
77 / 94
Mechanisms
Cost of Diversity
Genetic Diversity and the Prevalence of Interpersonal Trust across Countries
.3
Global−sample relationship
DNK
.2
NOR
SWE
CHN
VNM
.1
URY
SAU
NLD
THA
NZL
FIN
IDN
IRQ
CHE
GTM
MEX
IRL
0
KGZ
MLI BGD
ZAF
PER
CAN
GBR
ZMB
USA
BEL
BFA
ESP
LUX
BLR
ZWE LTU
GHA
CHL
EST
PRT
NGA
ARM
IRN UGA
IND
ITA
HUN
DEU
BGR
UKR AZE
VEN
CZE
HRVAUT COL ALB
JOR
TZA
YUG
BIH
POL FRA SVK
PAK
RUS
MDA
SVN
GEO
ROM
MAR
GRC
ISR
MKD
TUR
LVA
MYS
ETH
AUS
RWA
SLV
KOR
−.1
(Residuals)
JPN
−.2
Prevalence of interpersonal trust in the national population
Genetic Diversity & Trust
ARG
EGY
BRA
DZA
−.04
−.02
0
.02
.04
(Residuals)
Genetic diversity (ancestry adjusted)
Africa
Europe
Asia
Oceania
N. America
S. America
Relationship in the global sample; conditional on baseline geographical controls and regional fixed effects
Slope coefficient = −2.151; (robust) standard error = 0.756; t−statistic = −2.845; partial R−squared = 0.105; observations = 84
Oded Galor
Genetic Diversity and Development
78 / 94
Mechanisms
Cost of Diversity
Genetic Diversity & Variation in Political Preferences
2
Global−sample relationship
TZA
1
IND
0
(Residuals)
SLV
BGD
KGZ
FIN
USA
IDN
PER
NZL
JPN
GTM
MAR
SWE
ZAF
KOR
−1
ISR
IRQ
TUR
MDA
MLI
MEX
LTU
PRT
BLR
RUS
NOR
JOR
ALB VEN
GEO
YUG
UGA
ITA
DZA
MKDBGR
IRN
SVK
NGA
UKR AZE ROM
CZE
CHE
FRA
BRA
POL
GRC
EGY
URY
CHL
NLD
BFA
ARM
BEL
DNK
ZWE
COL
BIH
ESP
CAN GBR
SVN
GHA
DEU
IRL
LVA
AUT
EST
AUS
LUX
HRV
RWA
HUN
ZMB
ARG
ETH
THA
−2
Variation in political attitudes in the national population
Genetic Diversity and Variation in Political Attitudes across Countries
PAK
VNM
−.04
−.02
0
.02
.04
(Residuals)
Genetic diversity (ancestry adjusted)
Africa
Europe
Asia
Oceania
N. America
S. America
Relationship in the global sample; conditional on baseline geographical controls and regional fixed effects
Slope coefficient = 16.963; (robust) standard error = 5.954; t−statistic = 2.849; partial R−squared = 0.111; observations = 81
Oded Galor
Genetic Diversity and Development
79 / 94
Mechanisms
Cost of Diversity
Genetic Diversity & Ethnic Civil Con‡ict
Genetic Diversity and the Frequency of Ethnic Civil Conflict Onset across Countries
.1
MMR
(Residuals)
.05
TCD
IRN
MKDHRV
MDA
AFG
LBR
IDN
0
BOL PRY
IRQ
YUG
PAK
NGA
SDN
SYR
TGO
BDI
RWA
NER
BGD
YEM
UGA MOZ
GBR
AGO
GTM
TUR
ZAR LBN
ESP
ZWE ZAF
MEX
SEN LKA
LAO
NIC
CIV
COG
THAFIN EST LTU
KWT
LVA BLR
EGY CMR
LSOOMN JOR SAU
ARE
HUN
MLIDNK
DOM
NOR
SLV
BEL
CZE
POL SWZ UKRBGR
IRL SWE
URY
NLDGMB
ERI
NAM
DEU
ARM
ALB
SVK
AUT
GRCITAHTI
CAF
NPL
FRA
GNB
ROM
MRT
SVN
PRT CHN
CHL
CUB
KOR
TUN
ISR
BWA
CHE
USA
MAR
ARG
SOM
JPN
LBY
NZL
PRK
HND
PAN
BEN
CRI
AUS SLE
PER
MWI MDG
GIN
DZA
KHM
VNM
MNGECU
MYS
BRA
PNG
CAN
VEN
GHA GAB
TZA
COL
TJK
BFAZMB
TKM
KEN
KGZ
UZB
PHL
RUS
KAZ
−.05
Log number of new ethnic conflict onsets
per year, 1960−2005
Relationship in the global sample without outliers
−.1
−.05
0
.05
(Residuals)
Genetic diversity (ancestry adjusted)
Africa
Europe
Asia
Oceania
N. America
S. America
Relationship in the global sample with influential outliers eliminated; conditional on baseline geographical controls
Slope coefficient = 0.220; (robust) standard error = 0.067; t−statistic = 3.260; partial R−squared = 0.048; observations = 140
Oded Galor
Genetic Diversity and Development
80 / 94
Mechanisms
The Bene…t of Diversity
The Bene…ts of Diversity – Evidence
(1)
(2)
Patent Applications
1980-2000
(3)
(4)
Scienti…c Articles
1980-2000
Predicted Diversity
(Ancestry Adjusted)
0.851**
(0.343)
0.673**
(0.312)
2.290***
(0.576)
1.816***
(0.541)
Log Years since NR
(Ancestry Adjusted)
Log % of Arable Land
-0.021
(0.041)
-0.003
(0.013)
0.010
(0.015)
0.241***
(0.078)
0.003
(0.059)
0.029
(0.067)
0.031
(0.049)
-0.086
(0.098)
-0.021
(0.036)
-0.037
(0.044)
-0.007
(0.042)
-0.000
(0.013)
0.017
(0.013)
0.177**
(0.072)
-0.008
(0.060)
-0.042
(0.062)
0.035
(0.043)
-0.060
(0.095)
0.004
(0.031)
-0.031
(0.044)
0.020***
(0.007)
-0.091*
(0.048)
0.009
(0.016)
0.045*
(0.024)
0.685***
(0.117)
0.095
(0.096)
0.042
(0.090)
0.102*
(0.055)
-0.349*
(0.177)
0.018
(0.058)
0.105***
(0.038)
-0.076
(0.048)
0.007
(0.015)
0.055**
(0.023)
0.548***
(0.127)
0.073
(0.096)
-0.040
(0.081)
0.131***
(0.048)
-0.269
(0.169)
0.049
(0.055)
0.118***
(0.035)
0.032***
(0.008)
77
0.74
77
0.77
93
0.80
93
0.82
Log Absolute Latitude
Social Infrastructure
Ethnic Fractionalization
% of Population of European
Descent
% of Population at Risk of
Contracting Malaria
Terrain Ruggedness
% of Population Living in
Tropical Zones
Mean Distance to Nearest
Waterway
Years of Schooling
Observations
R-squared
Oded Galor
Genetic Diversity and Development
81 / 94
Conclusion
Conclusions: Genetic Diversity to Comparative Development
The migration of humans out of Africa 70,000-90,000 BP a¤ected
The distribution of genetic diversity across the globe
Comparative economic development
Accounts for 16% of the variation in the income per capita across
countries
Oded Galor
Genetic Diversity and Development
82 / 94
Conclusion
Conclusions: Costs and Bene…ts of Diversity
Diversity adversely a¤ects the cohesiveness of society, increasing the incidence
of:
Mistrust
(Ashraf-Galor, AER 2013)
Civil con‡icts
(Arbatli-Ashraf-Galor, 2015)
Ethnic fractionalization (Ashraf-Galor, AER P&P 2013)
Diversity enhances innovations and knowledge creation
Oded Galor
Genetic Diversity and Development
83 / 94
Conclusion
Policy Implications
Education policy
In overly-diverse societies:
Education geared towards: social cohesiveness & tolerance
=) Mitigating the cost of diversity
In overly-homogeneous societies:
cultivation of cultural diversity
=) substitute for low genetic diversity
Optimal level of cultural assimilation
Oded Galor
Genetic Diversity and Development
84 / 94
Appendix
Distance from East Africa and Phenotypes
Migratory Distance from East Africa and Height
Accounting for distance from the equator.
Oded Galor
Genetic Diversity and Development
85 / 94
Appendix
Distance from East Africa and Phenotypes
Migratory Distance from East Africa and Weight
Accounting for distance from the equator.
Oded Galor
Genetic Diversity and Development
86 / 94
Appendix
Distance from East Africa and Phenotypes
Migratory Distance from East Africa and Skin Re‡ectance
Accounting for distance from the equator.
Oded Galor
Genetic Diversity and Development
87 / 94
Appendix
Distance from East Africa and Phenotypes
Migratory Distance from East Africa and IQ
Accounting for distance from the equator.
Oded Galor
Genetic Diversity and Development
88 / 94
Appendix
Distance from East Africa and Phenotypes
The Impact of Post-1500 Migrations on Genetic Diversity
.8
.75
ETH
ERI
SOM
UGA
KEN
SDN
RWA
BDI
TZA
EGY
CAF
TCD
MWI
ZAR
JOR
COG
ZMB
LBN
SYR
COM
CMR
MDG
GNQ
GAB
ZWE
AGO
LBY
NGA
TUR
IRQ
NAM
MOZ
KWT
SWZ
ISR
BEN
ARM
ROM
QAT
SAU
GEO
TGO
BGR
TUN
GRC
GHA
BWA
CYP
MKD
BHR
CZE
BFA
LSO
ALB
MDA
IRN
YEM
NER
YUG
AZE
CIV
BIH
HUN
ZAF
HRV
DZA
ARE
UKR
SVK
AUT
SVN
ITA
POL
TKM
MLT
MLI
BLR
LTU
DEU
LBR
OMN
RUS
LVA
MAR
SLE
CHE
GIN
CPVGMB
EST
DNK
LUX
FIN
BEL
SWE
NLD
FRA
GNB
MRT
TJK
AFG
UZB
KAZ
SEN
NOR
GBR
MUS
ESP
KGZ
PAK
IRL
IND
PRT
NPL
BTN
LKA
BGD
MNG
MMR
THA
CHN
SGPHKG
KHM
MYS
PRK
LAO
KOR
VNM
JPN
PHL
IDN
HTI
JAM
TTO DOM
CUB
GUY
CAN AUS
USA
ARG
URY
.7
BRA
NZL
PRI
VEN CRI
BLZ
COLPANNIC
SLV
HND
.65
CHL
PRY
ECU
FJI
MEX
TMP
PNG
GTM
PER
.6
BOL
.55
Contemporary (ancestry−adjusted) genetic diversity
Pre−colonial and Contemporary Genetic Diversity across Countries
.55
.6
.65
.7
.75
.8
Pre−colonial genetic diversity
Africa
Europe
Asia
Oceania
N. America
S. America
45−degree line
Correlation in the global sample = 0.750; correlation in the Old−World sample = 0.993
Oded Galor
Genetic Diversity and Development
89 / 94
Appendix
A Model
Theoretical Foundations of the Hump-Shaped E¤ect of Diversity
y = (1
y
y ( ω );
α 2 (0, 1)
output per capita
A(z, ω )
technological level
ω 2 [0, 1]
z
degree of diversity
institutional, geographical, and human capital factors
f (x )
x
αω )A(z, ω )f (x )
production function
inputs per capita
Oded Galor
Genetic Diversity and Development
90 / 94
Appendix
A Model
Theoretical Foundations of the Hump-Shaped E¤ect of Diversity
Diversity and TFP growth
A(z, ω ) > 0, Aω (z, ω ) > 0, Aωω (z, ω ) < 0
limω
!0
Aω (z, ω ) = ∞; limω
!1
Aω (z, ω ) = 0
For instance:
A(z, ω ) = z
Oded Galor
Z ω
0
ω iθ di
Genetic Diversity and Development
θ 2 (0, 1)
91 / 94
Appendix
A Model
Theoretical Foundations of the Hump-Shaped E¤ect of Diversity
Properties of y (ω )
y 0 (ω ) = [(1
αω )Aω (z, ω )
y 00 (ω ) = [(1
αω )Aωω (z, ω )
limω
Oded Galor
!0
y 0 (ω ) > 0;
limω
αA(z, ω )]f (x )
!1
2αAω (z, ω )]f (x ) < 0
y 0 (ω ) < 0
Genetic Diversity and Development
92 / 94
Appendix
A Model
The Optimal Level of Genetic Diversity
y ( )
0
Oded Galor
*
1
Genetic Diversity and Development

93 / 94
Appendix
A Model
An Rise in the Optimal Diversity – Faster Technological Progress
y(; g )
y(; g H )
y(; g L )
0
Oded Galor
* ( g L ) * ( g H )
1
Genetic Diversity and Development

94 / 94