On the effect of sanitary and
phytosanitary measures on Oman’s fish
exports to the EU: An empirical analysis
Shekar Bose
Houcine Boughanmi
Amina Marhoun Rashed Al Naabi
Jaynab Begum Yousuf
Department of Natural Resource Economics
College of Agricultural and Marine Sciences
Sultan Qaboos University, Oman
March 21, 2016
Preliminaries (2000-2014)
Country
Group
Item
Average
SD
CV (%)
EU
Export Quantity
(ton)
Export Value
(‘000 RO)
Export Quantity
(ton)
Export Value
(‘000 RO)
Export Quantity
(ton)
Export Value
(‘000 RO)
4218.09
2723.46
64.57
6566.01
3885.63
59.18
55151.72
19006.28
35.77
34664.24
12400.10
35.77
13257.03
8303.961
62.64 (r= -0.20)
11852.91
5769.59
48.68
GCC
ASIAN
Quantity (ton)
Market Behaviour
12000.00
11000.00
10000.00
9000.00
8000.00
7000.00
6000.00
5000.00
4000.00
3000.00
2000.00
1000.00
0.00
EU
GCC
Asian
YEAR
Fish Export Pattern to EU
11000
Export Quantity and Value for EU: 2000-2014
10000
Quantity
Value
16000
14000
9000
Quantity (ton)
7000
10000
6000
8000
5000
6000
4000
3000
4000
2000
2000
1000
0
0
YEAR
Value ('000 RO)
12000
8000
Data Features
Country:
• Belgium, Cyprus, France, Germany, Greece, Italy,
Netherlands, Portugal, Spain, UK
Unbalanced Panel
Table: Fish and Fish products Notification detail 2004-2013
Year
2004
Case
1
2005
6
2006
5
Country
Cyprus
Species
Fresh Seabream (Pagrus pagrus)
and Grouper Epinephelus spp.)
France (1) & Fresh and Chilled Tuna Loins
Italy (5)
(Thunnus albacares)
Italy
Fresh Grouper fillets Epinephelus
Reasons
Listeria innocua (presence
/25g)
carbon monoxide treatment
2007
2
Italy
Frozen fish and Fresh Grouper
fillets Epinephelus spp.)
2008
1
UK
Frozen shark fillets
unauthorised use of colour E
122 and lead in sliced fresh
chilled tuna
abnormal colour of frozen fish
and parasitic infestation with
tapeworms
cadmium
2009
1
Italy
Seabream
cadmium
2010
1
Germany
Jack mackerels
high aerobic plate count
(8.0x10E6 CFU/g)
2011
1
Spain
Chilled Snapper and Grouper
2013
1
Spain
Unnamed
absence of health
certificate(s) for and poor
hygienic state
poor temperature control
spp.), and Fresh chilled tuna
Source: The Rapid Alert System for Food and Feed (RASFF)
MD No.
Time Period
Species
5/2011
16/4/2011 –
15/6/2011
April-June
Emperor
108/2011
30/8/2011 –
30/9/2011
August-September
143/2011
1/12/2011 –
31/5/2012
December-May
Ban Rate
Allow to export an
equal amount to what’s
domestically distributed
Kingfish, Grouper, Longtail tuna, Large Jacks, 100%
Rabbitfish
Seabream, Emperor, Grouper (Spiny cheek Allow to export an
grouper)
equal amount to what’s
domestically distributed
Yellowfin tuna, Kingfish, Longtail tuna,
Rabbitfish
Emperor, Grouper, Large Jacks, Seabream,
Indian Mackerel
100%
Allow to export an
equal amount to what’s
domestically distributed
Yellowfin tuna, Kingfish, Longtail tuna, Jobfish 100%
Emperor, Large Jacks (include: Gaint Trevally, Allow to export an
Blacktip Trevally, Greater Amberjack) ,
equal amount to what’s
Seabream (except; Santer seabream),
domestically distributed
Grouper (except; Spiny cheek grouper)
217/2012
30/9/2012 –
31/5/2013
September -May
Indian Mackerel
Market domestically
30% and allow to
export 4 times of what's
domestically distributed
Potential Factors of Influence
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
Export Diversification
NTB
Export Ban
Supply uncertainty
Product acceptability
Exchange rate
Market potential
Positional advantage (HACCP)
Year Company
2000
16
2001
20
2002
25
2003
25
2004
25
2005
25
2006
23
2007
21
2008
21
2009
19
2010
20
2011
20
2012
21
2013
19
Euro
2.99
2.90
2.76
2.30
2.09
3.34
2.07
1.90
1.77
1.85
1.96
1.87
2.02
1.96
Empirical Model
𝒍𝒏 𝑽𝒊𝒋
= 𝜶𝟎 + 𝜶𝟏 𝒍𝒏 𝑮𝑫𝑷𝒊 + 𝜶𝟐 𝒍𝒏 𝑮𝑫𝑷𝒋 + 𝜶𝟑 𝑫𝑵𝑻𝑩 + 𝜶𝟒 𝑫𝑩𝑨𝑵 + 𝜶𝟓 𝒍𝒏 𝑬𝑹𝒊𝒋 + 𝒆𝒊𝒋
Where,
Vij indicates fish export values from country ‘i (= Oman)’ to country
‘j’
GDP is each country’s nominal gross domestic product
DNTB is dummy variable on SPS concerns that is equal to ‘1’ when
the concern is reported to the WTO and ‘0’ otherwise
DBAN is dummy variable representing export ban on key species in
Oman that is equal 1 when there is ban and 0 otherwise
ERij is the exchange rate per Omani Rial
eij is the error term.
Note: The specification (except GMM) also contains country specific fixed effect.
Model (LSDV): Results
Variable
Coefficient t-value
Significant? (α =0.05)
0.58
8.89
Yes
𝐥𝐧 𝐆𝐃𝐏𝐢
-0.28
-0.67
No
𝐥𝐧 𝐆𝐃𝐏𝐣
1.71
1.18
No
𝐃𝐍𝐓𝐁
-0.06
-0.24
No
𝐃𝐁𝐀𝐍
-1.02
-4.88
Yes
𝐥𝐧 𝐄𝐑 𝐢𝐣
0.82
2.57
Yes
𝐃𝟐𝟎𝟎𝟗
-1.02
-4.55
Yes
𝐃𝟐𝟎𝟏𝟎
-0.91
-3.25
Yes
Constant
-13.08
-1.16
Fixed Effect
Yes
𝐥𝐧𝐕𝐭−𝟏
(F=3.67; p=0.00)
Yes
Model (GMM): Results
Variable in
Difference Form
Coefficient
t-value
Significant? (α =0.05)
𝒍𝒏𝑽𝒕−𝟏
-0.16
-1.05
No
𝐥𝐧 𝑮𝑫𝑷𝒊
-7.25
-1.46
No
𝐥𝐧 𝑮𝑫𝑷𝒋
12.15
2.49
Yes
𝐃𝐍𝐓𝐁
-0.54
-0.30
No
𝐃𝐁𝐀𝐍
-1.25
-1.25
No
𝐥𝐧 𝑬𝑹𝒊𝒋
-0.46
-0.58
No
𝑫𝟐𝟎𝟎𝟗
-1.48
-1.44
No
𝑫𝟐𝟎𝟏𝟎
1.28
0.80
No
Constant
0.46
0.60
Model Diagnostics
Criteria
LSDV
GMM
𝑹𝟐
0.91
NA
SSR
55.73
162.14
F-test
58.33 (p=0.00)
Normality
1.34 (p=0.50)
Autocorrelation 2.19
1.43 (p=0.49)
2.21
MAE
0.609
1.05
RMSE
0.819
1.34
Concluding Remark
In comparison with other factors, NTB measures
may not be constraining fish exports to EU