Climate Change, Water and
Food Security in the MENA
Region: An Empirical
Analysis
Slim Zekri
workshop on: Trade, WTO and Food Security
21-22 March 2016
SQU, Muscat, Oman
Definitions

Climate change is a change in the statistical
properties of the climate system when
considered over long periods of time.

Climate change my be caused by human
activity (Global Warming) or as part of Earth's
natural processes (changes in earth orbit, change in solar
activity, volcanic eruptions).

There is a scientific consensus that climate
change is occurring, and that human activities
are the primary driver (IPPC, 2014. “ doing nothing
will cost much more than taking action now”) .
Green House Effect
• Manifestation of climate change
•
•
•
•
Changing precipitations patterns (frequency of extreme weather conditions)
Rising temperature
Increases in ocean temperatures and sea level
Melting of glaciers and sea ice (arctic ocean)
• Global warming is essentially the result of the
human induced emissions of Green House Gases-
GHG
(i.e. Dioxide of carbon, Methane, Nitrous Oxide, ozone)
• The Green House effect: is the process which results
in rising earth temperature due to the increase of
heat –trapping green house gazes in the atmosphere.
• Green house gases emissions is essentially through
fossil fuel burning
WHAT IS COP21/CMP11?
CONFERENCE OF PARTIES



At the Paris climate conference (COP21) in
December 2015, 195 countries adopted the
first-ever universal, legally binding global
climate deal.
The agreement sets out a global action plan to
put the world on track to avoid dangerous
climate change by limiting global warming to
well below 2°C.
The agreement is due to enter into force in
2020.
Mitigation: reducing emissions

Governments agreed

Before and during the Paris conference, countries
submitted comprehensive national climate action
plans. These are not yet enough to keep global
warming below 2°C, but the agreement traces the
way to achieving this target.
◦ a long-term goal of keeping the increase in global average
temperature to well below 2°C above pre-industrial
levels;
◦ to aim to limit the increase to 1.5°C, since this would
significantly reduce risks and the impacts of climate
change;
◦ on the need for global emissions to peak as soon as
possible, recognising that this will take longer for
developing countries;
◦ to undertake rapid reductions thereafter in accordance
with the best available science.
Transparency and global stocktake

Governments agreed to
◦ come together every 5 years to set more
ambitious targets as required by science;
◦ report to each other and the public on how
well they are doing to implement their targets;
◦ track progress towards the long-term goal
through a robust transparency and
accountability system
Governments agreed to
 strengthen societies' ability to deal with
the impacts of climate change;
 provide continued and enhanced
international support for adaptation to
developing countries

Adaptation

The agreement
◦ recognizes the importance of averting,
minimizing and addressing loss and damage
associated with the adverse effects of climate
change;
◦ acknowledges the need to cooperate and
enhance the understanding, action and
support in different areas such as early
warning systems, emergency preparedness and
risk insurance.
Loss and damage
Developed countries will support climate
action to reduce emissions and build
resilience to climate change impacts in
developing countries.
 Developed countries intend to continue
their existing collective goal to mobilise
USD 100 billion per year until 2025 when
a new collective goal will be set.

Support
Agriculture and Climate change


Reducing emissions from agriculture will be imperative as it
will be impossible to stay within either a 1.5 or two degree
C target if agriculture does not contribute to emissions
reductions.
Countries want to take action on adapting
agriculture and reducing emissions from farming –
but funds are not yet there
◦ Considerable finance is needed for agricultural adaptation and
mitigation by Least Developed Countries (LDCs). At leastUSD 5
billion annually are needed.

The Paris Agreement commits developed countries to set a
new collective financing goal of at least USD 100 billion per
year, “taking into account the needs and priorities of
developing countries” but does not include binding
requirements on financial contributions by individual
countries
CC & agriculture: general facts
and trends

CC will affect food security through a variety of
channels
◦ Direct impact on agricultural production (reduction in yield
and area cultivated because of reduction in rainfall and higher
temperature) and availability of water



Indirect impact through higher import prices of food
and changes in the cost of energy and agricultural
inputs.
MENA will face large challenges in countering the
adverse impacts from CC because of the already
limited resources
CC will likely further increase net food import
demand in the region.
000 MT of cereal (including feed)
Projected food demand and production in
the Arab region without climate change
160000
Demand
120000
Production
80000
40000
2000
2010
Source (WB,IFAD,FAO,IFPRI (impact model)
2020
2030
Approaches to measure climate
change effects
 Three
models
 Agronomic models
 Agro-economic models
 Ricardian models
 Models
are based on hypotheses on
farmers’ behavior and response to climate
change (adaptation)
Agronomic-economic models





Crop models using controlled experiments (lab or
field) in which crops are grown under different
climate and levels of carbon dioxide
Farming methods are not allowed to vary across
experimental conditions
The yields are then entered into-economic
models that predict aggregate crop outputs,
prices and net revenues
Agronomic models have not examined efficient
adaptation
Their results may overstate the impact of
/damage from climate change
Adaptation to climate change

Adaptation involves a change in
agricultural practices in response to a
climate conditions
◦ Change in management practices
(change of time of
sowing and harvesting, intensification of inputs)
◦ Change in crop mix
◦ Introduction of new varieties

Adaptation assumes that farmers have
access to alternatives practices and
technologies practiced elsewhere
The Ricardian approach
Draw on the work by Ricardo that land values
reflect a site’s productivity
 Cross sectional approach (across countries)
measuring the contribution of environmental
factors to farm income
 The variation of climate across these countries
are wide
 By estimating the economic performance (farm
land value/net income)of farms across a range of
climate, we can measure climate sensitivity
 Advantage of the Ricardian approach is its ability
to incorporate the change farmers would make to
adapt their operations to a warmer climate
 disadvantage: experiments are not carefully
controlled across farms

Impact of Climate Change
on Oman’s Agricultural
Sector
Slim Zekri
Dept. Natural Resource Economics
Sultan Qaboos University
Climate Change Vulnerability and Adaptation
Assessment in Oman
Ministry of Environment and Climate Affairs and UNEP
IRRIGATED LAND: FACTS & FIGURES

70% of the irrigated land is located in Asian countries

Groundwater is a better resilient resource and buffered from
high evaporation and is a critical and an important reserve in
times of shortages, this feature is of special attention in dry
spells. This means that groundwater under drought
conditions becomes an even more stressed resource because
of the strong dependency irrigation has laid on it
Role & IMPORTANCE OF
GROUNDWATER
GROUNDWATER GLOBALLY
•
•
•
Groundwater plays a substantial
role
in
water
supply,
in
ecosystem
functioning
and
human well-being.
Groundwater
sustains
the
base-flows
of
rivers
and
important aquatic ecosystems
Groundwater
supplies
are
diminishing, with an estimated
20% of the world’s aquifers
being over-exploited (Gleeson
et al., 2012), leading to serious
consequences such as land
subsidence
and
saltwater
intrusion
in
coastal
areas
(USGS, 2013)
Agriculture accounts for 70% of global
freshwater withdrawals.
OTHER
SOURCES
50%
GROUNDWATER
FOR DRINKING
50%
50% population used GW for
Drinking Purpose. Worldwide,
2.5b
people
depend
on
groundwater resources for
their basic daily water needs
WATER FOR
IRRIGATION
Other
sources
57%
GROUND
WATER
43%
WATER ISSUES IN THE ARAB WORLD
MENA countries will face large challenges in countering the adverse impacts
from climate change because of the already limited resources
ESTIMATES OF OVERABSTRACTION OF RENEWABLE GW FOR ARAB COUNTRIES
COUNTRY
Reference
year
Total volume
Km3/year
Over-abstraction
ALGERIA
2000
1.2
Km3/year % of
Total
0.145
12
JORDAN
2000
2003
99-2000
2005
2003
2005
2000
0.5
0.24
1.28
3.68
1.15
8.34
1.21
0.225
0.09
0.76
0.54
0.60
3.44
0.175
45
38
60
15
52
41
14
2001
2.4
1.4
58
LEBANON
LIBYA
MOROCCO
OMAN
SYRIA
TUNISIA
YEMEN

Effects of CC on GW and Agr:
METHODOLOGY
Farming in arid regions is water dependent
◦ Thus any change in climate that leads to change in the supply of irrigation water will be
of significance to agriculture
Effects of Higher Temperatures on
Agriculture
Higher
temperatures
Higher
Evapotranspiration
Higher crop
water
requirements
Limited
water
resources
Crop yield
decreases
& Gross
profit
decreases
IMPACT OF HIGHER TEMPERATURES ON THE
AGRICULTURAL SECTOR


Based on Al-Jouf, Saudi Arabia’s
CROPWAT model.
Adjusted the results for Oman’s
cropping pattern
◦
Production Function
◦
Water prices
• By
2050
the
additional
crop
water
requirement for irrigation will reach 6.09%
or 0.15% per year due to the increase in
evapotranspiration.
• The GW available is limited. Farmers will
have to irrigate less their crops (deficit
irrigation). Consequently on average each
Feddan will have an irrigation water deficit
of 464 m3 by year 2050.
• Average economic loss due to increased
evapotranspiration and deficit in irrigation
is thus equal to 0.15% (increased crop
water
requirements
times
1.92
Rials/Feddan, which is equal to 0.288
Rilas/Feddan every year in a cumulative
way.




As compared to surface water, groundwater’s relation to climate change is considered more
complex and challenging
Most productive agricultural lands in Oman are located in the coastal areas of the Batinah and Salalah
Aquifers in these two coastal areas will be affected by sea level rise
2 scenarios based on the numerical simulation on the effects of climate change and sea level rise
on Jamma‘s aquifer until 2050 and 2070 based on Al Maktoumi et al. (2015)
•
•
•
Gross profit per hectare is 1089 Rials on average for a farm accessing
groundwater with salinity lower than 1.5 g/L
Gross Profit goes down to 431 Rilas/feddan if the groundwater salinity is
comprised between 5 and 10 g/L.
Beyond 10 g/L there is no possibility to grow food crops and gross profit is
then nil (OSS, 2012)
2,000,000
1,600,000
1,400,000
1,200,000
1,000,000
800,000
600,000
Total Gross Profit without CC
400,000
Total Gross Profit with CC RCP2.6 2050
200,000
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
2060
Year
2,000,000
1,800,000
Gross Profit in Rials
Gross Profit in Rials
1,800,000
1,600,000
1,400,000
1,200,000
1,000,000
800,000
600,000
400,000
Total Gross Profit without CC
200,000
Total Gross Profit With CC RCP8.5 2050
2010
2020
2030
2040
Year
2050
2060
2,000,000
1,800,000
1,400,000
1,200,000
1,000,000
800,000
600,000
400,000
Gross Profit without CC
200,000
Total Gross Profit with CC RCP2.6 2070
2000
2020
2040
2060
Year
2080
2,000,000
1,800,000
Gross Profit in Rials
Gross Profit in Rials
1,600,000
1,600,000
1,400,000
1,200,000
1,000,000
800,000
Gross Profit without CC
600,000
400,000
Total Gross Profit With CC RCP8.5
2070
200,000
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
Year
2060
2070
2080
800
724
700
600
500
495
495
Rials
400
300
200
100
0
Annual Equivalent Annual Equivalent Annual Equivalent
Gross Profit without Gross Profit with CC Gross Profit with CC
CC OR/feddan
RCP2.6 2050
RCP8.5 2050
OR/feddan
OR/feddan
800
724
700
600
Rials
500
428
422
400
300
200
100
0
Annual Equivalent Annual Equivalent Annual Equivalent
Gross Profit without Gross Profit with CC Gross Profit with CC
CC OR/feddan
RCP2.6 2070
RCP8.5 2070
OR/feddan
OR/feddan
800
710
700
600
500
400
295
300
293
163
200
157
100
0
Gross Profit
without CC
OR/feddan
Gross Profit with Gross Profit with Gross Profit with Gross Profit with
CC RCP2.6 in
CC RCP8.5 in
CC RCP2.6 in
CC RCP8.5 in
2050 OR/feddan 2050 OR/feddan 2070 OR/feddan 2070 OR/feddan
120%
100%
100%
80%
60%
41%
41%
40%
23%
22%
20%
0%
Gross Profit
without CC
Gross Profit
Gross Profit
Gross Profit
Gross Profit
with CC RCP2.6 with CC RCP8.5 with CC RCP2.6 with CC RCP8.5
in 2050
in 2050
in 2070
in 2070
1.
Allocating the beach front agricultural land to other activities in order to reduce
the pumping
2.
Changing the Policy: Allocating water rights and water quotas to farmers and
monitoring groundwater abstraction
3.
Incentives: subsidize sprinkler/drip and smart irrigation technology
4.
Market organization: induce changes in the crop mix: reducing the high water
demanding crops and introducing more vegetables in winter season only which
will reduce the irrigation water demand
5.
Recharge Dams: Manage the aquifers by increased recharge
6.
Manage aquifer by injecting treated seawater in beach front zone to constitute a
hydraulic barrier against seawater intrusion whenever possible
All stakeholders should be involved on the selection of the most efficient options to
adapt to climate change effects
The decision on which measure to undertake
is dependent on the cost and the profitability
of each option or the combination of several
of these options together
Agro-economic Results: change in
Yields
region
crop
negativ mixed positi
e
ve
Africa
wheat
1
0
0
maize
4
0
1
Wheat
2
2
0
Rice
5
8
4
Maize
2
0
0
wheat
4
0
0
Maize
3
0
1
what
0
1
4
maize
1
0
3
wheat
0
4
0
maize
2
3
0
wheat
0
1
0
rice
0
3
1
South Asia
Latin America
Europe
USA
Japan
Source: Mendelson and Dinar. Research observer,1999
In developing
countries, 21
negative and only
6 positive
outcome (of 43
studies)
In developed
countries, 9
positive studies
and 3 negative
studies (out of 27
studies)
Ricardian results: change in net income
resulting from a temperature increase
country
Temperature
increase
Change in
income (4%)
USA
2.0
-3 to +2
USA
2.0
-3 to +2
India
2.0
-3 to -6
India
3.5
-3 to -8
India
2.0
-7 to -9
India
3.5
-20 to -26
Brazil
2.5
-5 to -11
brazil
3.5
-7 to -14
Land values would
fall by an average
of 4% in India as a
result of 2 degree
Celsius increase
Source: Mendelson and Dinar. Research observer,1999. P. 287
These estimates do not include carbon fertilizer, which is expected to add 30% to crop . Climate scenario
assumes a 7% increase in precipitation.
MENA Countries: Simulation
Results(IFPRI IMPACT MODEL)






IFPRI uses the International Model for Policy Analysis of Agricultural
Commodities and Trade (IMPACT model) to simulate the impact s of
climate change.
Three impacts on crop production from climate change are
considered:
(1) direct effects on rain-fed yields through changes in temperature
and precipitation
(2) indirect effects on irrigated yields from changes in temperature
and changes in water availability for irrigation (including from
precipitation),
and (3) autonomous adjustments to area and yield due to price
effects and changes in trade flows in the economic model.
Using comparisons of IMPACT projections with and without climate
change scenarios, the “net” impacts of climate change on agricultural
production, demand, trade, and prices can be obtained.
Climate change reduces the availability of
water for agricultural and non agricultural use
Per capita water availability under different scenarios
of climate change, MENA region
cubic meter/capita/year
600
Per capita water availability is projected to decline over time
Annual per capita water availability will slightly increase under NCAR and decrease
500
NOCC
NCAR
400
CSIRO
HADCM3
300
200
100
0
Source: IFPRI 2009 cited in Breisinger
2025 et al.
2050
NoCC = no-climate-change scenario; NCAR = National Center for Atmospheric Research; CSIRO =
Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organization; HadCm3 = Hadley Centre’s Coupled Model,
version 3.
Average cereal yields are projected to
decline by 2025 and 2050
Average cereal yield under historic climate and
alternative climate change scenarios, MENA Region
4.5
4
yields are projected to decline slightly
In2025. The decline is however is somewhat
Larger in 2050
NoCC
HADCM3
CSIRO
3.5
NCAR
tons/ha
3
2.5
2
1.5
1
0.5
0
2025
Source: idem
2050
Climate change will increase world
price of key staple cereals
International price for wheat and rice in 2000 and
projected 2050 under historic climate and various
scenarios of climate change
450
400
Price for wheat in 2050 will be 80-102 % higher compared to the no climate
change . Scenario. Price for rice in 2050 will be 28-37 % higher compared
to the no climate change scenario
350
US$/ton
300
2000
250
NoCC
HADCM3
200
CSIRO
NCAR
150
100
50
0
Wheat
Rice
Net cereal trade under alternative climate change
scenarios, MENA
0
2025
2050
-10
percentage change
-20
-30
NoCC
-40
HADCM3
NCAR
CSIRO
-50
Net cereal imports into MENA would decline
under the climate change scenarios
-60
Under climate change net cereal imports would still increases
over time but at a lower rate than the no climate change
-70
Scenarios. this is because world price significant increase
would reduce local demand
-80
Higher food price reduce demand for food
in MENA Region
200
180
Cereal demand for food, feed, and other uses
projections under historic and climate change
scenarios
160
million metric ton
140
120
other
100
feed
food
80
60
40
20
0
2000
Source: Breisinger et al. 2010
2050 NoCC
2050NCAR
2050CSIRO
2050HAD
Lower food availability and affordability as a result
of climate change will increase childhood
malnutrition
3000
malnourished children in 1000
2500
Number of malnourished children, projected 2025 and
2050, MENA
The largest increase of malnutrition
under the drier CSIRO scenario
2000
NoCC
HAD
1500
CSIRO
NCAR
1000
500
0
2025
2050
Summary
 Predicted warming and predicted lower precipitation in
the Arab region makes this region particularly
vulnerable to climate change
 Climate change will cause decline in crop yield (as a
result of higher temp and lower precipitation)
 Climate change will lead to higher prices of traded ag.
Commodities
Initiatives to reduce vulnerability
to climate change
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
General agricultural and economic development initiatives
Developing agricultural markets
Reducing distortions and subsidies in ag. policies
Continuing trade liberalization
Enhancing social protection and microfinance
Preparing for disasters
Mainstreaming climate change in ag. policies (i.e in ag. development
plans)
Given the significant risk of droughts, promote risk sharing and
risk reducing investment and policies
Reform the water governance and institutions particularly for
GW to address the high demand for irrigation water as a result
of the decline in precipitation
Higher investment in research and new technology development
(biotechnology and genetic modification to adapt to bio stress
ie. drought ,heat, salinity)
Tapping in traditional knowledge in crop varieties and
adaptation