March 21 & 23, 2016
SECOND MENA TRADE WORKSHOP:
TRADE, WTO, AND FOOD SECURITY
Proceedings and Abstracts
Second MENA Trade Workshop on
Trade, WTO, and Food Security
March 21-23 2016
Sultan Qaboos University
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March 21 & 23, 2016
SECOND MENA TRADE WORKSHOP:
TRADE, WTO, AND FOOD SECURITY
PREAMBLE
The WTO chair at SQU conducts research, curriculum, and outreach activities which are relevant to both
the Middle East and North African Countries (MENA) and WTO. Nowadays food security has become
more than ever before a worldwide concern particularly in the MENA region. Food security is explicitly
mentioned in the preamble of the WTO Agreement on Agriculture (AoA) as a non-trade concern that
should be given consideration in trade negotiations along with protecting the environment and the
possible negative effects of the implementation of the agreement (AoA) on the net food-importing
developing countries. However during the last food crises (2007/2008 and 2010/2011), global food prices
spiked in unprecedented way and world food markets were disrupted in such a way that many countries,
scholars, and development institutions questioned the reliance on trade and world markets to solve
developing countries food security issues. The role of WTO and trade disciplines in the Agreement on
Agriculture (AoA) was considered not flexible enough to allow countries to pursue their national food
security policies. New and old paradigms of food security emerged to emphasize in different degrees the
complementarity between trade, international cooperation, and self- reliance for food production. In this
regard, WTO chair at SQU is organizing a two-day workshop to discuss the linkage between trade, WTO
and food security as well as other trade-related and food security issues in the region and beyond. The
workshop will be an opportunity for interested academicians and practitioners from the region to present
their research findings and discuss food security in light of resource scarcity and international market
instability.
In addition to price variability, climate change is creating new challenges to the future of food security in
the region. Agriculture in the MENA region is considered to be one that will be mostly affected by
climate change. Year to year localized production variability is expected to increase and with potentially
negative impacts on the food security of local communities. Trade, as it connects “the land of the plenty
to the land of the few”- thereby increasing food availability-could contribute to food security solutions but
more innovative mitigation and adaptation policies are needed to attenuate the negative effects of
climate change.
Dr. Houcine Boughanmi
WTO Chair
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March 21 & 23, 2016
SECOND MENA TRADE WORKSHOP:
TRADE, WTO, AND FOOD SECURITY
WORKSHOP PROGRAM
Day 1: Monday 21, 2016,
Conference Room 219, College of Agricultural and Marine Sciences, Sultan Qaboos University
Session 1: Chairperson: Houcine Boughanmi, WTO chair , SQU
Time
8:00-9:00
Registration
9:00 9:15
Introduction (Houcine Boughanmi, WTO Chair, Sultan Qaboos University)
9:15- 10:00
The New Approach to Food Sovereignty in the Arab World
(Jane Harrigan, School of Oriental and African Studies, School of London, UK)
10:00-10:45
Hedging and Risk Management in Wheat Trading: The Case of Oman
(Paul Dubravec, Consultant, ATI, USA)
10:45-11:15
Coffee break
Session 2: Chairperson: Dr Msafiri Mbaga, Associate Professor Department of Natural Resource Economics
11:15-11:45
Food security and WTO: Policy Space for MENA in the WTO Agreement on
Agriculture (AoA), (Houcine Boughanmi, Associate Professor &WTO Chair, SQU)
11:45-12:15
Agricultural development and Food security policies in Oman ( Naufael Rasheed;
Ministry of Agriculture and Fisheries, Sultanate of Oman)
12:15-12:45
How to Make Patent Law Work for Food Security (Bashar Malkawi, University of
Sharjah, UAE)
12:45-1:45
Lunch break
Session 3: Chairperson: Dr. Slim Zekri, Associate Professor and Head Department of Natural Resource
Economics.
1:45-2:15
Dynamics of Agricultural Transformation in Sri Lanka: Implications of Agricultural
Trade Policy for Food Self-Sufficiency and Food Security, (Jeevika Weerahewa,
University of Peradeniya, Sri Lanka)
On the Effect of Sanitary and Phytosanitary Measures on Oman’s Fish Exports to the
EU: An Empirical Analysis (Shekar Bose, Sultan Qaboos University)
2:35-2:55
Impact of Food and Oil Prices on Poverty in Food Dependent Oil Exporting
Countries: The Case of Oman (Hemesiri Kotagama, Sultan Qaboos University)
2:55-3:15
Coffee break
Session 4: Chairperson: Dr Shekar Bose, Associate Professor Department of Natural Resource Economics
3:15-3:35
Climate Change, Water and Food Security in the MENA Region: An Empirical
Analysis (Dr Slim Zekri, SQU)
3:35-:3:55
Statistical Evidence (or Lack Thereof) On Climate Variation as a Factor Causing
2:15-2:35
Food Price Volatility: Cointegration Analysis Using a VAR Model of Monthly
Temperature and Food Prices (DVP Prasada, University of Peradeniya, Sri Lanka
3:55-4:15
Economics of Climate Change Adaptation: A Ricardian Analysis
4:15-4:30
(L.H.P.Gunaratne, University of Peradeniya, Sri Lanka)
Closing remarks: Dr Houcine Boughanmi, WTO chair
Day 2: Tuesday 22, 2016: Field trip
Day 3: Wednesday 23, 2016: Training session (for invited participants): Hedging and Risk Management
presented by Paul Dubravec, Vice President of Advance Trading, Inc. (8:30 am to 4:00 pm)
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March 21 & 23, 2016
SECOND MENA TRADE WORKSHOP:
TRADE, WTO, AND FOOD SECURITY
TRAINING PROGRAM
Wednesday 23, March 2016, (8:30 am to 4:00 pm)
Conference Room 219, College of Agricultural and Marine Sciences, Sultan Qaboos University
Hedging and Risk Management
by Paul Dubravec, Vice President of Advance Trading, Inc., USA
Introduction to CME Group/Chicago Board of Trade
•History
•Evolution of the CME/CBOT trade.
•Purpose – who are the participants, why?
Exchange Traded Instruments of the CBOT
•Contract terminology and specifications, futures and options
•Mechanics of the futures contract, what is being traded?
•Hedge – definition and basic mechanics of a hedge.
Commodity Price Risk Management
•Understanding options – terminology, pricing, how they are utilized.
•Utilizing Put and Call options for the consumer/end user
•Options utilization case study.
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March 21 & 23, 2016
SECOND MENA TRADE WORKSHOP:
TRADE, WTO, AND FOOD SECURITY
The New Approach to Food Sovereignty in the Arab World
Jane Harrigan
School of Oriental and African Studies, School of London, UK
The Middle East and North Africa region (MENA) is often characterized as one of the most food
insecure regions in the world based on its high reliance on imports to meet its food needs.
Consequently, the 2007/08 global food crisis, in which international food prices rocketed and a
large number of food exporters introduced export embargoes, had a profound impact on the
region, with imported food price inflation leading to declining living standards, trade deficits,
and fiscally costly measures to try to mitigate the impact of food price increases. The second
wave of international food price increases in 2010/11 also contributed to political unrest which in
some countries was manifest in the uprisings of the Arab Spring. As a result many Arab states
started to reappraise their approach to food security, placing greater emphasis on domestic
“macro food sovereignty”, defined as a desire to exert greater power and control over food
supplies which went beyond the narrow considerations of economic efficiency. This concern for
food sovereignty was manifest in two new policy thrusts in the region: greater emphasis on
domestic food production, particularly the production of cereals, often at a high economic cost;
and the acquisition of land overseas in host countries to directly source food requirements. This
paper assesses the impact of the global food crisis on Arab states and the controversial policy
response in the form of the greater emphasis on food sovereignty.
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March 21 & 23, 2016
SECOND MENA TRADE WORKSHOP:
TRADE, WTO, AND FOOD SECURITY
Hedging and Risk Management in Wheat Trading: The Case of Oman
Paul Dubravec
Advanced Trading Inc., Chicago, USA
The objective of this study is to quantify which hedging practices may provide the best form of
hedging and risk management for the procurement of wheat in Oman. The study will provide
recommendations as to how to implement/execute a prudent program of price risk management,
or hedging, to assist wheat importing companies in managing price volatility of their wheat
purchases.
We will be analyzing 10 years of price data for Chicago wheat futures (SRW), Kansas City
Wheat futures (HRW) and Matif wheat futures, which is milling wheat. The data will be
gathered and compared to the limited data available on the procurement price of wheat in Oman.
This will provide the basis of the study in comparing values when those pricings occurred to
what futures were trading during that same time. We will also be comparing values from the
number of origins that we have data on so as to compare those values to those that have been
provided by wheat importing companies.
After analyzing the pricing data, the next step is performing a pricing or price risk management
simulation whereby we simulate the purchase of exchange traded instruments be it a call or put
option on a continuous/consistent basis over the five year time frame. In the simulation we are
assuming that Call positions are purchased six months prior to the actual purchase date against
forward buying of deferred wheat usage. At the purchase date, the simulation then purchases a
Put option to manage downside risk that will remain in place through the actual time line of the
cargo utilization. As the wheat is utilized the risk on that amount of wheat no longer exists so
the corresponding hedge is lifted.
In order to fully assess the broad spectrum of hedging possibilities, we followed the same
protocol as we did in the options example using futures contracts in the out forward commodity
usage simulation, while covering priced cargos, exposed to downside price risk, between
shipment pricing and the time the wheat is fully utilized.
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March 21 & 23, 2016
SECOND MENA TRADE WORKSHOP:
TRADE, WTO, AND FOOD SECURITY
Food Security and WTO: Policy Space for MENA in the WTO Agreement on Agriculture
Houcine Boughanmi
Department of Natural Resource Economics, College of Agricultural and Marine Sciences,
Sultan Qaboos Univeristy
The presentation analyzes the link between trade, food security and WTO as it is reflected in
the WTO Agreement on Agriculture (AoA), and the WTO chair activities, focusing on
developing countries, particularly the MENA region. The recent food crises reflected in the
unprecedented global price swings of agricultural commodities have raised real questions on the
role of WTO in providing a level playing field for international trade and on the ability of WTO
rules and regulation to enhance food security in developing and least developed countries. The
presentation argues that that Uruguay Round AoA provides a wide policy space for developing
countries to design and implement their national food security policies. The current market and
trade environment are however quite different from those prevailing during the negotiation of
the of the AoA , requiring an adaptation of trade rules to consider more forcefully the emerging
food security needs of developing countries. The high and more variable price environment of
food commodities is highly suitable to facilitate a revision of rules that put some more emphasis
on consumer food security and more disciplines on food exports restrictions. The MENA
countries with limited agricultural resources and high urban concentration should play a more
active role in trade negotiations to ensure that WTO rules are not compatible with their long –
term food security strategies.
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March 21 & 23, 2016
SECOND MENA TRADE WORKSHOP:
TRADE, WTO, AND FOOD SECURITY
Food Security in Oman: Challenges & Opportunities
Naufal H. Rasheed
Ministry of Agriculture and Fisheries, Sultanate of Oman
Food security is a multidimensional topic as many elements & aspects contribute in formulating
its definition such as availability, affordability and accessibility of food; in addition food quality,
safety and nutrition are becoming integral parts of the concept. However, agriculture by its
broader term is considered as an essential pillar of food security.
Oman has witnessed consecutive food security stages: at earlier period, specifically prior to the
exploration of oil at sixth decade of the last century, food self-sufficiency (FSS ) as well as food
security were achieved at higher standard in most towns and villages. Thereafter, due to
urbanization coincided with growing food chain business in large cities; food import has been
gradually alleviated. Nowadays wheat, rice, sugar, vegetable oil and legumes are 100%
imported, whereas other food commodities, namely fish, date, vegetables, fruits, red meat, dairy
and eggs are now locally produced at different rates of FSS. They are ranged from partial to full
self-sufficient.
Despite the fact that agriculture & fisheries sectors are currently facing many challenges &
obstacles, but at the time there are still huge potentials & opportunities to improve food
production from different sources. This can be achieved by adopting appropriate polices &
directives. They include: long term food security strategy preparation, integrated natural
resources management, modernize traditional food production systems, upgrade agribusiness
management & facilities, introduction practical investment plan along with fostering the role and
contribution of both government and private sectors. The outcomes of such actions are to
gradually modernizing & improve food production, increasing productivities, improving FSS,
reducing food imports, supporting economical diversification and finally achieving more
contribution to GDP. Accordingly, the present study is highlighting various aspect and prospects
to achieve food security in Oman.
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March 21 & 23, 2016
SECOND MENA TRADE WORKSHOP:
TRADE, WTO, AND FOOD SECURITY
How to Make Patent Law Work for Food Security
Bashar H. Malkawi
College of Law, University of Sharjah, P.O Box 27272, Sharjah-UAE
Improvement in agricultural productivity is essential for achieving sustainable food security and
reducing rural poverty in Arab countries. Patent laws are example of laws- among other lawsthat affect food security and poverty reduction. However, many patent laws and policies in Arab
countries are not fully aligned with the goals to improve agriculture productivity and food
security as well. The ways in which patent laws policy affect food security are complex and
multifaceted.
To address these issues, the paper will analyze the patent laws and policies to explore any
changes needed to improve food security in Arab countries without significantly undercutting
incentives for innovation. The paper will describe plant biotechnology, domestic policies
affecting access to patented technologies, and the stance on implementation of the World Trade
Organization's (WTO) Agreement on Trade-Related Aspects of Intellectual Property Rights
(TRIPS) and other efforts to harmonize patent policy internationally. The paper then will analyze
the impact of patent practices and policies on access to biotechnology and presents the case for
change across a spectrum of domestic and foreign patent policies. The paper will suggest how
patent law might be changed to advance food security. These changes may include for instance
maintaining or expanding available patent exemptions, a working requirement, and transfer of
agricultural technologies. The recommendations would improve access to patented
biotechnology by allowing working and for applying patented technology to resolve food
security problems without concern about infringement claims.
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March 21 & 23, 2016
SECOND MENA TRADE WORKSHOP:
TRADE, WTO, AND FOOD SECURITY
Dynamics of Agricultural Transformation in Sri Lanka:
Implications of Agricultural Trade Policy for Food Self-Sufficiency and Food Security
Jeevika Weerahewa
Department of Agricultural Economics and Business management, Faculty of Agriculture,
University of Peradeniya, Sri Lanka
At the time of gaining political independence in 1948, Sri Lanka was a net importer of most of its food
needs particularly, rice, wheat, and sugar. The successive governments of the country had adopted a
drive for domestic food production soon after the independence. With continued land development and
support prices for rice, the domestic food production sector growth picked up some momentum and this
was further strengthened after 1960 by the increasing prices of imported food items. The country
commenced an open economic policy in 1977 ending the above import substitution development strategy
and launching an export promotion development strategy. The successive governments that came to
power after 1977, despite their policy orientation, wanted to ensure that food is available in sufficient
quantities in the country to meet the food requirement of its nation. They adopted a myriad of policy
measures to increase food availability either through domestic production or importation.
The objective of this study is to present the agricultural policy framework adopted by the government of
Sri Lanka during the period 1977-2014 and to document associated transformation of food production
portfolio and food consumption basket of the country. The paper distinguishes the two concepts, food
self-sufficiency and food security, and discusses desired changes expected in the process of agricultural
transformation. The study mainly relies on data on food production, consumption, trade, prices and tax
and subsidy rates extracted from various government publications for the analysis.
First, the paper chronicles various trade policy measures implemented and describes how the agricultural
policy framework of the country was shaped up due to commitments with the World Trade Organization
and the Regional Trade Agreements. Second, it presents food balance sheets of the country during
different policy regimes.
Third, an attempt is made to identify drivers of food production and
consumption and decompose them into demand driven, technology driven or policy and institutional
driven changes.
Finally the paper discusses what policy and institutional changes are required to
transform the agricultural sector of Sri Lanka to achieve food security at the national level.
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March 21 & 23, 2016
SECOND MENA TRADE WORKSHOP:
TRADE, WTO, AND FOOD SECURITY
On the Effect of Sanitary and Phytosanitary Measures
on Oman’s Fish Exports to the EU: An Empirical Analysis
Shekar Bose, Houcine Boughanmi, Amina Marhoun Rashed Al Naabi, Jaynab Begum Yousuf
Department of Natural Resource Economics, College of Agricultural and Marine Sciences,
Sultan Qaboos University, Oman.
Being a net exporter of fish and fishery products, it is of strategic importance to Oman to study
the effect of technical measures (e.g. Sanitary and Phytosanitary (SPS) and Technical Barriers to
Trade (TBT) measures) on fish trade. Keeping this strategic importance in mind, this paper
empirically examines whether the SPS measures significantly influence the fish exports from
Oman to key European countries. Using secondary data collected from national and international
sources, a dynamic unbalanced panel data model is estimated using the Least Square Dummy
Variable (LSDV) and the Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) techniques. To examine
cross-section effects, fixed effects specification of the dynamic model was estimated while
applying the LSDV method. As the main focus of this paper is on the trade impact of measures
notified by importing countries under the SPS and TBT Agreements, a simple dummy variable
(DNTB) was generated using the data of notifications pertaining to Oman appearing under the
Rapid Alert System for Food and Feed (RASFF) and included in the model. The results from the
two methods are presented and compared using appropriate model selection criteria and
diagnostics. It is found that the LSDV method provided statistically superior and persuasive
results than that of its counterpart method. The coefficient of the variable with regard to the
effect of SPS measures (DNTB) carries an expected sign but its associated t-value suggests that
the fish exports to the selected EU markets have not been significantly influenced by such
measures. However, the lagged dependent variable (i.e. lagged export value), domestic ban on
exports (DBAN) of selected species, D2009 and D2010 (structural shifts), and exchange rate, exert
significant influence (with expected signs) on the value of fish exports.
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March 21 & 23, 2016
SECOND MENA TRADE WORKSHOP:
TRADE, WTO, AND FOOD SECURITY
Impact of Food and Fuel Prices on Poverty in Food Import Dependent and Oil Exporting
Economies: The Case of Sultanate of Oman
H. B. Kotagama, H. Boughanmi, H. A. I. Alfarsi, N. S. M. S. Al Hamedi
Department of Natural Resource Economics, College of Agricultural and Marine Sciences,
Sultan Qaboos University.
The surge and volatility of food and fuel prices since year 2008 to 2014 has changed its trend to
decreasing food and fuel prices since 2015. However the rate of decrease in food prices has been less than
the drastic rate of decrease in fuel prices. Predictions are that fuel prices may not revert back to high
prices that prevailed in 2014. This scenario of relatively high food prices to low fuel prices, would
adversely impact poverty and food security in countries that are highly food import dependent and oil
export dependent, such as the Sultanate of Oman.
Non-renewable resource based fuels and mineral products exports are the major part of the trade balance,
accounting for 83% of total exports and agricultural imports represents 12.4% of the imports in the
Sultanate of Oman. The trade balance of the Sultanate of Oman though was in surplus up to 2014, with
the decrease in the oil price, has been in deficit in 2015. The government of the Sultanate of Oman,
through its budgetary proposals for 2016 has initiated reforms to augment government revenue, through
increases in business taxes and phasing down subsidies on fuel. Further policy initiatives and economic
reforms are being considered.
Oman imported 44% of the food consumed, 100% of rice and about 95% of wheat. Expenditure on food
is the largest percentage (31%) of the total household income followed with transportation (17%) that is
largely cost on fuel. Thus changes in either, food or fuel prices, would have a significant impact on
poverty. In the Sultanate of Oman a family is classified as poor if it spends more than 60% of the
household expenditure on food. Based on this standard 12% of Omani families were classified as poor
based on Household Expenditure and Income Survey conducted in 2007-2008 compared to 8% in 19992000. Studies, done post 2008 surge in global food prices, have quantified the resulting increase in food
insecurity in the Sultanate of Oman, measured as percentage of households unable to access Nutrionaly
Adequate Socially Preferred Least Cost diet as 5.3%. The phasing down of fuel subsidies may further
aggravate poverty and household food security. In this context quantitative analysis on the impact and
sensitivity of food and fuel price changes on incidence of poverty would be useful to assess policy options
to mitigate poverty and manage public finances.
This study has used a simulation model that estimates the poverty impacts caused by changes in food and
fuel prices developed by the World Bank. The model enables the estimation of poverty head count and
poverty depth indicators and the required governmental financial transfers to mitigate poverty. The model
thus allows estimating poverty incidence and governmental costs on poverty alleviation caused by
exogenous factors of price changes and/or endogenous government policies that would change food and
fuel prices.
Secondary macroeconomic data and simulated data using the most recent Household Expenditure and
Income Survey of the Sultanate of Oman have been used for the study. The model has been tested and
validated and preliminary results show that poverty incidence is responsive to food and fuel price
changes.
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March 21 & 23, 2016
SECOND MENA TRADE WORKSHOP:
TRADE, WTO, AND FOOD SECURITY
Climate Change, Water and Food Security in the MENA Region: An Empirical Analysis
Slim Zekri
Department of Natural Resource Economics, College of Agricultural and Marine Sciences,
Sultan Qaboos University.
Oman’s agricultural sector totally depends on irrigation from groundwater. Groundwater
resources in Oman are located in small coastal alluvial aquifers temporally and sporadically
recharged. Climate change will be manifested through an increase of temperature and the
rise of sea level. The sea level rise will cause seawater intrusion and an increased salinity of
the aquifers. This paper is based on groundwater simulation model MODFLOW applied for
the case of Jamma’s aquifer in the Batinah coastal area. Most of the agricultural activity is
located in the coastal regions of Batinah and Salalah. Two scenarios are considered RCP2.6
and RCP8.5, where the sea level rise will range between 24 cm and 63 cm by 2050 and
2070 respectively. To estimate the economic losses due to climate change on the
agricultural sector we assumed that current rate of pumping from wells are at their
maximum and could not be increased, due to the limits on well yields. A crop production
function was used to determine the effect of deficit irrigation on value of crop productivity.
The MODFLOW model allowed determining the extent of the irrigated area affected by
salinity in the next 35 to 55 years. Results showed that around 64% to 75% of the cropped
area will have to be abandoned by 2050 and 2070 respectively due to excessive salinity in
the groundwater in the case of business as usual. Economically, it is expected that the
present value of losses will vary from Rials 14.8 Million by 2050 to Rials 25 Million by
2070, using a 2% discount rate. On a per hectare basis it is expected that the gross profit
will fall from a current 100% to 40% and 22% by 2050 and 2070 using 2015constant
prices and without discounting.
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March 21 & 23, 2016
SECOND MENA TRADE WORKSHOP:
TRADE, WTO, AND FOOD SECURITY
Statistical Evidence (or Lack Thereof) On Climate Variation as a Factor Causing
Food Price Volatility: Cointegration Analysis Using a VAR Model of
Monthly Temperature and Food Prices
DVP Prasada and A Seneviratne
Volatility of food prices is a crucial aspect of access to food in particular and of food security in
general. During the recent 2007/2008 recession, food price hikes had significant policy and
poverty impacts, world over. The explanation of food price volatility is a long standing research
area in international agricultural economics. Among the factors affecting food price volatility
discussed in the previous literature, macroeconomic variables have received most attention to
date.
We consider price time series of five food categories at monthly frequency over the period from
1990 January to 2015 November and investigate the relationships between different food prices
indices and temperature time series. Cointegration analysis is performed to detect shared
stochastic trends and to detect causality arising from climate time series to food price series
using a vector autoregressive model.
The preliminary results highlight that in a autoregressive model with five period lag structure ,
price series for dairy and oils share a stochastic trend with monthly climate series. In a model
with a ten period lag structure, only dairy price series is integrated with climate volatility. Cereal,
meat, and sugar price series are not integrated with climate volatility for either model.
Next, we perform an analysis of Granger-causality to determine the direction of causality
between climate volatility and food price indices. In a model with ten period lag structure and
controls for energy prices and agricultural output index, climate volatility causes volatility in
price series for meat. For other food price indices, causality is not statistically significant in any
direction at 10 percent significance. The causality between temperature volatility and meat prices
poses a paradox in that the direction of the link is negative; indicating that second period and
ninth period lag values of temperature negatively affects the meat price index statistically
significantly. We claim that the above causality is mediated by the temperature-linked disease
outbreaks, mainly Foot and Mouth Disease and SARS epidemic which show cyclical patterns of
outbreaks. At the very least, the significant global livestock disease outbreaks in 2002/2003
appear to create a structural break in the meat price series.
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March 21 & 23, 2016
SECOND MENA TRADE WORKSHOP:
TRADE, WTO, AND FOOD SECURITY
Economics of Climate Change Adaptation: A Ricardian Analysis
L.H.P.Gunaratne and Aruna Sooriyaarachchi
Department of Agricultural Economics and Business management, Faculty of Agriculture,
University of Peradeniya, Sri Lanka
The agricultural sector is the most important source of employment for the majority of the
workforce and the major land use practice in Sri Lanka. However, its contribution to the gross
domestic product has declined substantially during the past decades (from 30 % in 1970 to 10.8
in 2014) and climate related factors are partly responsible for these changes. With this
background, the economic impacts of climate change on the agricultural sector were studied
using a survey data that covered 40 agro-ecological regions in Sri Lanka. It was found that, of
the 321 respondents contacted, 92% were aware of long term shifts in temperature, 88% were
aware about long term shifts in precipitation and 74% were aware on long term shifts in drought.
A Ricardian model was estimated and it clearly indicated that temperature and precipitation are
most variables through which the climate change impacts are transferred. Of the temperature
variables included, linear and quadratic terms of temperatures of First inter-monsoon, South-west
monsoons, and North-east monsoons were statistically significant. In addition, linear and
quadratic precipitation values of second inter-monsoon were statistically significant. According
to the estimated model, there are: Minimum net revenue (NR) receive when temperature of first
inter-monsoon is 27.26 C; Maximum NR receive when temperature of south west monsoon is
equals to 27.67 C; and Maximum NR is at when temperature of North-east monsoon season is
equals to 25.67 C. The model has been used to forecast the changes in agricultural production
and net revenue due to the climate change. Sri Lanka being an agricultural country needs to
focus more on better adaptation strategies to combat the challenges of climate change on
agriculture. The findings further call for monitoring of climate change, and dissemination of
information to farmers to encourage adaptations to climate change.
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March 21 & 23, 2016
SECOND MENA TRADE WORKSHOP:
TRADE, WTO, AND FOOD SECURITY
BIOGRAPHIES OF PRESENTERS
Jane Harrigan: is Professor of Economics at the School of Oriental and African Studies
(SOAS) University of London. She works on food security in the Middle East and North Africa
as well as in sub-Saharan Africa. She has also worked extensively on the political economy of
IMF and World Bank economic reform programmes in both regions as well as on foreign aid
more generally. Prior to joining SOAS Professor Harrigan held posts at the University of
Manchester and in the Ministry of Agriculture in Malawi. She has acted as a consultant to
numerous international organizations, including the World Bank, the Food and Agriculture
Organization, the African Development Bank and UNCTAD. She is the author of eight books
and numerous journal papers, including the 2009 book 'Aid and Power in the Arab World' and
the 2014 book 'The Political Economy of Arab Food Sovereignty' both published by Palgrave
Macmillan.
Paul Dubravec: Born and raised in rural Illinois, Paul's interest in agriculture began early in life,
spending a great deal of time working on production agriculture operations in the area. After
graduating from the University of Illinois with a degree in Agricultural Economics/ Agribusiness
Management, Paul began his career with a large multinational food/ commodity trading firm as a
merchandiser of specialty grains and feed ingredients. Paul has been with Advance Trading since
1994, working as a Commercial Broker and Commodity Merchandising Consultant. His client
base includes those who merchandise, warehouse grain, various processors and other end-users
in the Midwest, Southern, and Southwestern portions of the United States as well as international
clients with operations in multiple countries. Paul currently serves as an officer on the board of
directors at Advance Trading and is active in professional organizations, including state and
national trade associations. He has been an active participant on the National Grain and Feed
Arbitration Committee, currently serves on the board of a major state grain and feed association
and serves on other various trade association committees. Aside from agriculture, Paul serves on
the board of Risings Stars Academy, Inc. and the community advisory Board of Directors for the
Children's Hospital of Illinois. Paul remains active in many philanthropic organizations both
locally and internationally, including Rotary International. Paul resides in Bloomington, Illinois
with his wife and three children.
Houcine Boughanmi: is currently the WTO Chair and Associate Professor in Agricultural
Economics at the Department of Natural Resource Economics at Sultan Qaboos University
(SQU). He got his bachelor degree from the University of Tunis, then his MSc from the
University of Kentucky, USA and His PhD from Oregon State University, USA. Dr.
Boughanmi has More than 30 years of experience in teaching, research and community services
and has published extensively in reputable academic journals. Dr. Boughanmi‘s research interest
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includes international trade using partial and general equilibrium modeling, food demand, food
policy and food security. He published on the effect of WTO on Oman’s trade and the GCC
regional trade arrangements and is currently working on MENA Regional Trade Arrangement
using the GTAP Framework. Under the WTO chair program he is currently coordinating a
number of research activities dealing with Food security and WTO related issues. He also served
as a co-investigator in a number of SQU funded research projects in the areas of agricultural
production and marketing. He served for the second consecutive year as the Academic
coordinator of the WTO Regional Trade Policy Course held at Sultan Qaboos University.
Naufel Rasheed: is currently working as an advisor of Agriculture Policy and Investment to the
Ministry of Agriculture & Fisheries. Prior to that, he worked as CEO (2011 – 2012) of Green
Waves Group for landscaping construction projects – UAE. ; COO (2008-2011) Oman &
Emirates Investment Holding Company – Oman; Assistant to the president for Technical
Affaires (2004-2008) Arab Authority for Agriculture Investment and Development (AAAID),
Sudan; Adviser to the president (1998-2003) Arab Authority for Agriculture Investment and
Development (AAAID) , Sudan; Dean Assistant for Scientific Affaires (1993-1996), College of
Agriculture, University of Baghdad, Iraq; President (1989 -1997) Food Science & Technology
Society, Iraq; Expert ( 1986 – 1994 ) Arab Federation for Food Industries, Iraq. He prepared of
more than (36) studies focused on food security in Oman, investment plan & policies, investment
map, technical report, road maps for development of livestock sector, dates, feed, rangeland etc..
Dr Naufal is a graduate from Oklahoma State University, USA where he got his PhD in 1983 in
Food Sciences. He got his MSc in Animal Sciences from the University of Baghdad in
coordination with University of Newcastle Upon Tyne, UK (1976) and his BSc in Agriculture
Sciences from the University of Baghdad, Iraq.
Bashar H. Malkawi: is Professor of Law at University of Sharjah. He received his S.J.D from
American University, Washington College of Law in 2005, and LLM in International Trade Law
from University of Arizona in 2001. His academic career has traversed both Business and Law
schools, teaching a variety of business law courses in Jordan, UAE, Italy, and United States. He
spent two years as Assistant Dean at Hashemite University's Faculty of Economics and as
Associate Dean for Graduate programs at University of Sharjah College of Law. He is currently
the Dean for the College of Law at the University of Sharjah. His research agenda focuses on
the role of the World Trade Organization, regional trade agreements, Arab economic integration,
with specific projects examining Arab countries' participation in the WTO dispute settlement
mechanism, the application of international law theory to WTO, and the global regulation of
intellectual property. Prof. Malkawi is the author of Jordan and the World Trading System: A
Case Study for Arab Countries, International Encyclopedia of Law for Intellectual Property.
Over the years, he has written articles on various aspects of WTO law, intellectual property,
business law that have appeared in major law reviews and been cited. In addition to law articles
and academic books, Prof. Malkawi also writes for the popular press in the United States and
Middle East. In recognition of his outstanding scholarly achievements to date, Prof. Malkawi
received several research awards. Apart from his academic activities, Prof. Malkawi regularly
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provides consulting service to international organizations, governments, and multinational law
firms on matters related to business law.
Jeevika Weerahewa: is the Professor of Agricultural Economics attached to the Department of
Agricultural Economics and Business Management, Faculty of Agriculture, University of
Peradeniya, Sri Lanka. She has a B.Sc. and M.Phil in Agriculture from the University of
Peradeniya and a PhD in Agricultural Economics from the University of Guleph, Canada. She has
been teaching fundamental and applied courses in Economics with a special focus placed on
agriculture and allied fields at the University of Peradeniya since 1987. Her primary research area
is Agricultural Trade Policy. She is a Collaborator of the International Food Policy Research
Institute, a Hewlett Fellow of the International Agricultural Trade Research Consortium and a
Fellow of the Canadian Agricultural Trade Policy Research Network. She provides her services to
the Asian Development Bank and the World Bank as a consultant on part time
and intermittent basis.
Shekar Bose: is an Associate Professor in the Department of Natural Resource Economics of the
College of Agricultural and Marine Sciences at Sultan Qaboos University, Oman. Before joining
the Department in September 2011, Dr. Bose worked as Fisheries Management Expert at the
Ministry of Agriculture and Fisheries, Oman for three years (August 2008 - August 2011). His
first academic appointment was at the Australian Maritime College (AMC) in 1994 and
remained at AMC for 13 years. Dr. Bose served as the Head of the Department of Fisheries and
the Marine Environment at AMC for two years and as the Head of the Graduate School of
Marine Resource Management for one year. He achieved his MA in Economics from Lakehead
University, Canada in 1993, and PhD in Economics from the University of Queensland,
Australia in 2001. His research interests entail areas such as applied microeconomics, natural
resource economics and management, sustainable development, policy analysis, and regulatory
effectiveness.
Hemesiri Kotagama: is an Assistant Professor at the Department of Natural Resource
Economics, Sultan Qaboos University, and Sultanate of Oman. He served at University of
Peradeniya, Sri Lanka as a teacher and professor for 25 years. He has obtained his Ph.D.
(Natural Resource Management/ Economics), University of London, M.Sc. (Agricultural
Economics). University of the Philippines at Los Banos, B.Sc. (Agriculture) Honours, University
of Peradeniya, Sri Lanka. He also has obtained diplomas/certificates on Environmental
Economics, Gothenburg University, Sweden, Environmental Economics and Policy Analysis,
Harvard University, U.S.A. Environmental Assessment and Management in Agricultural
Development, University of London, U.K. His research has been in the applied areas of
Environmental and Natural resource Economics and Management. He has served in several
national committees guiding environmental policy and in national technical committees
evaluating major investment projects in Sri Lanka. He has been extensively involved in training
professionals on Environmental Impact Assessment and Environmental Economic valuation in
the South Asian region. His current research interest includes farm business and food security
analysis.
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Slim Zekri: has an Agriculture Economics Engineering degree from the University of Tunis
Carthage, A Master degree in Environmental Planning from the International Center of Agronomic
Mediterranean Studies. He earned his PhD in Agricultural Economics & Quantitative Methods from
the University of Cordoba, Spain in 1991. Dr Zekri has worked for one year at the University of
Cordoba, then joined the Department of Agricultural Economics at Ecole Superieure d’Agriculture
de Mograne where he worked as Assistant professor, then Associate Professor and Head of the
department for six years. In 2002 Dr Zekri joined the University of Minnesota as Visiting professor
for one year. Since 2003 he joined the Sultan Qaboos University as full time faculty. Currently he is
Associate Professor, and Head of the Department of Natural Resource Economics, Sultan Qaboos
University in Oman. He has recently been nominated as Global Fellow in the Daugherty Water for
Food Institute in the University of Nebraska. Dr Zekri published more than 70 papers in
International Journals and in International Conferences. He worked as an expert for national and
international agencies such as the World Bank, FAO, ICBA, ICARD. His main research and
consultancies deal with natural resource economics, mainly agriculture, water economics, policy
and governance. He is specialist in optimization and multiple criteria decision making. He is
Associate editor of the journal Water Economics and Policy and the Journal Agricultural and
Marine Sciences. He served as reviewer for more than 10 journals. He participates regularly to
international conferences of the profession.
D.V.P. Prasada: is affiliated to University of Peradeniya, Sri Lanka as a lecturer. His academic
training is in the areas of agricultural economics, development studies, and economics with a
doctoral degree from University of New South Wales. His research interests are in development
economics and international development.
L. H. Premakumara Gunaratne: is a Professor attached to Department of Agricultural
Economics and Business Management of the Faculty of Agriculture, University of Peradeniya,
Sri Lanka. Currently, he serves as the Director of the Agribusiness Centre and the Chairman of
the Board of Study in Business Administration of the Postgraduate Institute of Agriculture,
University of Peradeniya. He received his B.Sc. Agriculture degree from the University of
Peradeniya and M.Sc, M.A. and Ph.D degrees from the University of Hawaii. He has worked in
the areas of Environmental Economics, Econometrics and Production Economics.
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ORGANIZING COMMITTEE
Houcine Boughanmi (chair)
Elibel Covarrubias
Amani Al Alawi
Ahmed Shammakhi
Slim Zekri
Hemesiri Kotagama
Msafiri Mbaga
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