Introduction to Game Theory: Normal Form Games Economics 302 - Microeconomic Theory II: Strategic Behavior Instructor: Songzi Du compiled by Shih En Lu (Chapters 6, 7, 9 and 11 in Watson (2013)) Simon Fraser University January 22, 2016 ECON 302 (SFU) Lecture 3 January 22, 2016 1 / 39 Why Games? We want to model strategic behavior — conscious behavior arising among a small number of competitors or players, in a situation where all are aware of their (possibly conflicting) interests and interdependence of their decisions. This fits many economic situations where the “large number” assumption of competitive markets fail: oligopoly, auctions, bargaining, public goods, etc. Also useful in other fields: biology, political science, computer science, etc. ECON 302 (SFU) Lecture 3 January 22, 2016 2 / 39 What is a Game? A game has players that each chooses from actions available to him/her (given his/her information). Example: Bob can either go to class or skip class, and the professor can either give a pop quiz or not. An outcome is a collection of actions taken by each player. Example: (Go to class, Give quiz) is an outcome. Each outcome generates a utility, or payoff, for each player. These utilities are obtained from expected utility theory, so that a player’s payoff from an uncertain situation is just the weighted average of her payoffs from each outcome (where weights = probabilities). ECON 302 (SFU) Lecture 3 January 22, 2016 3 / 39 Simultaneous-Move Games of Complete Information We first study simultaneous-move games of complete information. Simultaneous-move means that each player picks her action without knowing others’, and each player moves once. Example: The game would not be simultaneous-move if the professor decides whether to give a quiz after observing whether Bob is in class. Complete information means that each player knows every player’s payoff from each outcome. Example: If lazy students’ payoffs differ from hard-working ones’, and the professor does not know whether Bob is lazy, then the game would not feature complete information. ECON 302 (SFU) Lecture 3 January 22, 2016 4 / 39 What is a Strategy? In a game, each player plays a strategy, which in the case of simultaneous-move game of complete information is a probability distribution over her actions A strategy specifies how the player will play his/her game. Example: “Go to class” is one of Bob’s strategies. “Go to class with probability 0.3 and Skip class with probability 0.7” is another. ECON 302 (SFU) Lecture 3 January 22, 2016 5 / 39 What is a Strategy? In a game, each player plays a strategy, which in the case of simultaneous-move game of complete information is a probability distribution over her actions A strategy specifies how the player will play his/her game. Example: “Go to class” is one of Bob’s strategies. “Go to class with probability 0.3 and Skip class with probability 0.7” is another. A pure strategy is a strategy that puts all weight on an action (probability 1). A mixed strategy is just any strategy. “Mixed” is used to emphasize that the strategy may not be pure. A collection of each player’s strategy is called a strategy profile. Example: (Go to class, 0.4 Give quiz + 0.6 No quiz) is a strategy profile. ECON 302 (SFU) Lecture 3 January 22, 2016 5 / 39 The Normal Form A convenient way to represent a two-player simultaneous move game of complete information is through the normal form (also known as strategic form, or game matrix). Bob Go to class Skip class Prof. Give Quiz 0, 0 -5, -1 No Quiz 2, 6 5, 4 By convention, player 1 (Bob) picks the row, and player 2 (professor) picks the column. Each cell gives the payoffs of player 1 and player 2, in that order. What do you expect the professor to do? What about Bob? ECON 302 (SFU) Lecture 3 January 22, 2016 6 / 39 Example: The Prisoner’s Dilemma (PD) Not Guilty (Cooperate) Guilty (Defect) ECON 302 (SFU) Not Guilty (Cooperate) -2, -2 -1, -5 Lecture 3 Guilty (Defect) -5, -1 -3, -3 January 22, 2016 7 / 39 Example: The Prisoner’s Dilemma (II) What do you expect each prisoner to do? What is the Pareto efficient outcome in the Prisoner’s Dilemma (PD)? In a PD, defecting gives both players a higher payoff no matter what the other one does, but (Defect, Defect) is worse for both than (Cooperate, Cooperate). Can you think of other situations that can be modeled as a PD? ECON 302 (SFU) Lecture 3 January 22, 2016 8 / 39 Dominance For now, let’s only consider pure strategies. A player’s strategy is strictly dominant if, for any combination of actions by other players, it gives that player a strictly higher payoff than all her other strategies. (“The best choice no matter what others do”) Examples: prisoner defecting, professor not giving a quiz. ECON 302 (SFU) Lecture 3 January 22, 2016 9 / 39 Dominance For now, let’s only consider pure strategies. A player’s strategy is strictly dominant if, for any combination of actions by other players, it gives that player a strictly higher payoff than all her other strategies. (“The best choice no matter what others do”) Examples: prisoner defecting, professor not giving a quiz. A player’s strategy is strictly dominated if there exists another strategy giving that player a strictly higher payoff for all combinations of actions by other players. (“There’s something else that’s always better”) Examples: prisoner cooperating, professor giving a quiz. ECON 302 (SFU) Lecture 3 January 22, 2016 9 / 39 Dominance For now, let’s only consider pure strategies. A player’s strategy is strictly dominant if, for any combination of actions by other players, it gives that player a strictly higher payoff than all her other strategies. (“The best choice no matter what others do”) Examples: prisoner defecting, professor not giving a quiz. A player’s strategy is strictly dominated if there exists another strategy giving that player a strictly higher payoff for all combinations of actions by other players. (“There’s something else that’s always better”) Examples: prisoner cooperating, professor giving a quiz. If a strategy is dominant, the player’s other strategies must be dominated. On the other hand, there may not be a dominant strategy, even though some strategy is dominated. ECON 302 (SFU) Lecture 3 January 22, 2016 9 / 39 Dominance Solvability (I) It makes sense to predict that a player will play her dominant strategy if she has one, and will never play a dominated strategy. This allows us to predict the outcome in the PD. But in our first example, while we can predict what the professor does, Bob doesn’t have dominant or dominated strategies. Idea: take it a step further, and assume Bob can also deduce what the professor does (plays his dominant strategy, which is not giving the quiz). Now we can predict what Bob will do (skip class). ECON 302 (SFU) Lecture 3 January 22, 2016 10 / 39 Dominance Solvability (II) Iterated deletion of strict dominated strategies, or iterated strict dominance (ISD): after deleting dominated strategies, look at whether other strategies became dominated with respect to the remaining strategies. If so, delete these newly dominated strategies, and repeat the process until no strategy is dominated. Example: “Going to class” is initially not dominated, but after “Give quiz” is eliminated, it becomes dominated. Therefore, we eliminate “Going to class” in the second iteration. A game is dominance solvable if ISD leads to a unique predicted outcome, i.e. only one strategy for each player survives. Both our examples up to now are dominance solvable. ECON 302 (SFU) Lecture 3 January 22, 2016 11 / 39 Exercise Find the set of strategies that survive ISD. Top Middle Bottom ECON 302 (SFU) Left 1, 7 5, 3 3, 0 Center 1, 1 6, 4 6, 5 Right 7, 0 5, 1 6, 0 Lecture 3 January 22, 2016 12 / 39 Remarks on Dominance Solvability A solution through ISD is not as convincing as a solution in dominant strategies: it assumes that players correctly anticipate what others will not do (i.e., how the others will eliminate their actions). However, ISD allows us to solve some games that don’t have a dominant strategy for all players. Moreover, the type of reasoning carried out in ISD seems feasible and realistic, especially when the number of iterations is small. So it’s still a pretty appealing concept. Fact: the order in which ISD is carried out (which can vary since there can be more than one dominated strategy at a time) does not influence which strategies survive. (Brainteaser for math jocks: prove this.) ECON 302 (SFU) Lecture 3 January 22, 2016 13 / 39 Traveler’s Dilemma An airline has lost two suitcases belonging to Alice and Bob. Identical antiques in both suitcases. Each customer writes a claim value, simultaneously: 2 ≤ vA , vB ≤ n, where n is the maximum possible value. ECON 302 (SFU) Lecture 3 January 22, 2016 14 / 39 Traveler’s Dilemma An airline has lost two suitcases belonging to Alice and Bob. Identical antiques in both suitcases. Each customer writes a claim value, simultaneously: 2 ≤ vA , vB ≤ n, where n is the maximum possible value. If both claim the same value, each gets that amount. ECON 302 (SFU) Lecture 3 January 22, 2016 14 / 39 Traveler’s Dilemma An airline has lost two suitcases belonging to Alice and Bob. Identical antiques in both suitcases. Each customer writes a claim value, simultaneously: 2 ≤ vA , vB ≤ n, where n is the maximum possible value. If both claim the same value, each gets that amount. If Alice claims a smaller value (vA < vB ), Alice gets vA + 2, Bob gets vA − 2. ECON 302 (SFU) Lecture 3 January 22, 2016 14 / 39 Traveler’s Dilemma An airline has lost two suitcases belonging to Alice and Bob. Identical antiques in both suitcases. Each customer writes a claim value, simultaneously: 2 ≤ vA , vB ≤ n, where n is the maximum possible value. If both claim the same value, each gets that amount. If Alice claims a smaller value (vA < vB ), Alice gets vA + 2, Bob gets vA − 2. If Bob claims a smaller value (vB < vA ), Alice gets vB − 2, Bob gets vB + 2. ECON 302 (SFU) Lecture 3 January 22, 2016 14 / 39 Traveler’s Dilemma (II) For simplicity, suppose n = 4. Write down the normal form. ECON 302 (SFU) Lecture 3 January 22, 2016 15 / 39 Traveler’s Dilemma (II) For simplicity, suppose n = 4. Write down the normal form. The strategy of claiming 4 is not strictly dominated by any other pure strategy. Nevertheless, the strategy 4 is strictly dominated by the mixed strategy consisting of claiming 3 with probability 1/2 and claiming 2 with probability 1/2. Therefore, we can eliminate the (strictly dominated) strategy of claiming 4. After the strategy of claiming 4 is eliminated, strategy of claiming 3 is strictly dominated by the strategy of claiming 2. Therefore, a single strategy survives ISD: claiming 2 (for each player). Exercise: write down the normal form for the traveler’s dilemma’s with n = 5 and n = 6. Solve by ISD. Extra challenge: n = 100. ECON 302 (SFU) Lecture 3 January 22, 2016 15 / 39 Mixed Strategies and ISD Some pure strategies may only be strictly dominated by mixed strategies. A player’s strategy is strictly dominated if there exists another strategy, pure or mixed, giving that player a strictly higher payoff for all combinations of strategies by other players. (“There’s something else that’s always better”) A pure strategy that is strictly dominated by a mixed strategy need to be (iteratively) eliminated in ISD. ECON 302 (SFU) Lecture 3 January 22, 2016 16 / 39 Many Games Are Not Dominance Solvable It’s easy to come up with a game where ISD doesn’t help at all. Rowena Pond Timmie’s Colin Pond 1, 1 0, 0 Timmie’s 0, 0 1, 1 (This is a coordination game.) Are we completely stuck? ECON 302 (SFU) Lecture 3 January 22, 2016 17 / 39 Nash Equilibrium (I) If Rowena and Colin haven’t set a meeting place, are meeting each other for the first time and are new at SFU, then it’d be hard to predict their behavior. But if they have communicated, have done this before or if there’s a social norm, it seems likely that they will coordinate successfully. Idea: We expect situations where everybody is playing her best strategy, given (that he/she correctly anticipates) others’ strategies. This way, nobody is making a mistake or has an incentive to switch. Note: Just like for ISD, we are assuming that each player has correct beliefs about what others are doing. But it’s a stronger assumption here, because logic alone doesn’t allow us (or the players) to predict behaviour. ECON 302 (SFU) Lecture 3 January 22, 2016 18 / 39 Nash Equilibrium (II) A player i’s (pure or mixed) strategy σi is a best response to other players’ strategies if, taking as fixed these other players’ strategies, σi gives player i her highest possible payoff. A Nash equilibrium (NE) is a strategy profile (σ1 , . . . , σn ) where every player’s strategy is a best response to other players’ strategies. Again, this means that nobody has a reason to switch (no incentive to deviate), giving what everyone else is doing. An NE in pure strategies or a pure-strategy NE is an NE where every player’s strategy is pure. Examples of pure-strategy NE: (Pond, Pond) and (Timmie’s, Timmie’s) in the last example. ECON 302 (SFU) Lecture 3 January 22, 2016 19 / 39 Finding Pure-Strategy Nash Equilibria Let’s find all the pure-strategy NEs in the following game: Top Middle Bottom ECON 302 (SFU) Left 0, 1 1, 1 2, 3 Center 0, 0 4, 3 6, 2 Right 5, 2 4, 0 3, 3 Lecture 3 Dumb -10, -10 -10, -10 -10, -10 January 22, 2016 20 / 39 Exercise Find all the pure-strategy NEs in the following game: Top Middle Bottom ECON 302 (SFU) Left 3, 7 0, 0 4, 0 Center 9, 6 4, 0 1, 5 Right 1, 6 2, 0 0, 1 Lecture 3 January 22, 2016 21 / 39 Some Games Have No Pure-Strategy Nash Equilibria Rock Paper Scissors Rock 0, 0 1, -1 -1, 1 Paper -1, 1 0, 0 1, -1 Scissors 1, -1 -1, 1 0, 0 But there might still be a mixed-strategy NE. ECON 302 (SFU) Lecture 3 January 22, 2016 22 / 39 Some Games Have No Pure-Strategy NE We saw that Rock-Paper-Scissors has no pure-strategy NE. Here’s another example: Goalie Left Right Kicker Left 1, -1 -1, 1 Right -1, 1 1, -1 What do soccer players actually do? These are games where it’s important to keep the other(s) guessing. ECON 302 (SFU) Lecture 3 January 22, 2016 23 / 39 Optimality of Mixed Strategies Goalie Left Right Kicker Left 1, -1 -1, 1 Right -1, 1 1, -1 What would the goalie do if the kicker is more likely to play Left? Right? When will the goalie play both Left and Right with positive probability? ECON 302 (SFU) Lecture 3 January 22, 2016 24 / 39 Optimality of Mixed Strategies Goalie Left Right Kicker Left 1, -1 -1, 1 Right -1, 1 1, -1 What would the goalie do if the kicker is more likely to play Left? Right? When will the goalie play both Left and Right with positive probability? If a player mixes between multiple pure strategies in a NE, then all of these strategies (the ones played with positive probability) must be best responses. ECON 302 (SFU) Lecture 3 January 22, 2016 24 / 39 Finding Mixed-Strategy NE General procedure to find a Mixed-Strategy NE: 1 2 For each player, conjecture a set of strategies that he/she mixes over. Calculate the mixing probabilities so that no one has incentive to deviate (Nash Equilibrium). Unfortunately, it is generally hard to find all mixed-strategy NE. But in 2x2x2 games (2 players and 2 actions for each player), it’s not too bad. ECON 302 (SFU) Lecture 3 January 22, 2016 25 / 39 Kicker-Goalie Revisited Goalie Left Right Kicker Left 1, -1 -1, 1 Right -1, 1 1, -1 Suppose the goalie plays Left with probability p. To find the NE, we need to find the value of p that makes the kicker indifferent between Left and Right. Similarly, we need to find the mix of the kicker’s actions (playing Left with probability q) that makes the goalie indifferent between Left and Right. ECON 302 (SFU) Lecture 3 January 22, 2016 26 / 39 (Politically Incorrect) Example: Battle of the Sexes Find all NE in the following game: Girl Ballet Hockey Guy Ballet 3, 1 0, 0 Hockey 0, 0 1, 4 We can also compare the expected payoffs of NE. ECON 302 (SFU) Lecture 3 January 22, 2016 27 / 39 Another example: mixing over some (but not all) strategies Find all NE in the following game: D E F A 4, 0 0, 4 3, 0 B 0, 4 4, 0 3, 0 C 0, 3 0, 3 3, 3 ECON 302 (SFU) Lecture 3 January 22, 2016 28 / 39 Nash’s Theorem Theorem (Nash, 1950) For a game with a finite number of players and where each player has a finite number of actions, a Nash Equilibrium always exists. John F. Nash (born 1928) PhD in mathemaitcs, Princeton (1950) won the Nobel Prize in Economics, 1994 movie A Beautiful Mind ECON 302 (SFU) Lecture 3 January 22, 2016 29 / 39 Relating Dominance Solvability and Nash Equilibrium The support of a NE always lies among ISD strategies: For NE (σ1 , σ2 , . . . , σn ), if σ1 places positive probability on a strategy s1 , s1 must be player 1’s best response given σ2 , . . . , σn . Therefore, s1 cannot be strictly dominated. (strictly dominated ⇒ not a best response for anything) Therefore, strategies in the support of σi are never deleted during the ISD iterations. ECON 302 (SFU) Lecture 3 January 22, 2016 30 / 39 Relating Dominance Solvability and Nash Equilibrium The support of a NE always lies among ISD strategies: For NE (σ1 , σ2 , . . . , σn ), if σ1 places positive probability on a strategy s1 , s1 must be player 1’s best response given σ2 , . . . , σn . Therefore, s1 cannot be strictly dominated. (strictly dominated ⇒ not a best response for anything) Therefore, strategies in the support of σi are never deleted during the ISD iterations. NE offers sharper prediction than ISD. ECON 302 (SFU) Lecture 3 January 22, 2016 30 / 39 Bigger Games Remember that NEs cannot involve strategies that are eliminated by ISD (this is true of all NEs, not just pure-strategy ones). So finding all mixed-strategy NE is also feasible in games that reduce down to 2x2x2 through ISD. In games that don’t reduce that far, sometimes payoffs are nice and symmetric like in Rock-Paper-Scissors. But even then, it’s more work than for 2x2x2 games. ECON 302 (SFU) Lecture 3 January 22, 2016 31 / 39 Symmetry A symmetric game is a game where the payoffs for playing a particular strategy depend only on the other strategies employed, not on who is playing them. If one can change the identities of the players without changing the payoff to the strategies, then a game is symmetric. Examples: prisoner’s dilemma, traveler’s dilemma, rock-paper-scissor, etc. X Y X a, a c, d Y d, c b, b ECON 302 (SFU) Lecture 3 January 22, 2016 32 / 39 Symmetry A symmetric game is a game where the payoffs for playing a particular strategy depend only on the other strategies employed, not on who is playing them. If one can change the identities of the players without changing the payoff to the strategies, then a game is symmetric. Examples: prisoner’s dilemma, traveler’s dilemma, rock-paper-scissor, etc. X Y X a, a c, d Y d, c b, b A symmetric Nash equilibrium is a Nash equilibrium where every player plays the same strategy. A symmetric game always has a symmetric Nash equilibrium, though it may also process an asymmetric Nash equilibrium. For a symmetric Nash equilibrium: only needs to check that a single player has no incentive to deviate. ECON 302 (SFU) Lecture 3 January 22, 2016 32 / 39 Symmetric mixed-strategy NE Rock Paper Scissors Rock 0, 0 1, -1 -1, 1 Paper -1, 1 0, 0 1, -1 Scissors 1, -1 -1, 1 0, 0 Suppose that each player plays rock with probability r , paper with probability p, and scissor with probability s. Find the mix-strategy Nash equilibrium. ECON 302 (SFU) Lecture 3 January 22, 2016 33 / 39 Understanding the Bystander Effect Motivation: Thirty-eight people witnessed the brutal murder of Catherine (“Kitty”) Genovese over a period of half an hour in New York City in March 1964. During this period, none of them significantly responded to her screams for help; none even called the police. A crime is observed by n people. Each person would like the police to be informed (value v ), but prefers that someone else make the phone call (cost c). Assume v > c > 0. Action of a person: call the police, or don’t call the police. Note that we may reinterpret (relabel) “calling the police” as “helping the victim.” ECON 302 (SFU) Lecture 3 January 22, 2016 34 / 39 Understanding the Bystander Effect (II) Pure strategy: 1 person calls the police, the rest do not call. ECON 302 (SFU) Lecture 3 January 22, 2016 35 / 39 Understanding the Bystander Effect (II) Pure strategy: 1 person calls the police, the rest do not call. Symmetric mixed strategy: each person calls police with probability p. ECON 302 (SFU) Lecture 3 January 22, 2016 35 / 39 Understanding the Bystander Effect (II) Pure strategy: 1 person calls the police, the rest do not call. Symmetric mixed strategy: each person calls police with probability p. v 1 − (1 − p)n−1 = v − c 1 p = 1 − (c/v ) n−1 . Probability p that an individual calls the police decreases with the group size n. ECON 302 (SFU) Lecture 3 January 22, 2016 35 / 39 Understanding the Bystander Effect (III) What is the probability the crime is reported in equilibrium? ECON 302 (SFU) Lecture 3 January 22, 2016 36 / 39 Understanding the Bystander Effect (III) What is the probability the crime is reported in equilibrium? The probability that no one calls the police is n 1 (1 − p)n = (c/v ) n−1 = (c/v )1+ n−1 , 1 since p = 1 − (c/v ) n−1 . Alternatively, c (1 − p) v because v (1 − (1 − p)n−1 ) = v − c from the equilibrium condition. In any case, the probability that the crime is unreported increases with the number n of bystanders. (1 − p)n = (1 − p)n−1 · (1 − p) = ECON 302 (SFU) Lecture 3 January 22, 2016 36 / 39 Understanding the Bystander Effect (III) What is the probability the crime is reported in equilibrium? The probability that no one calls the police is n 1 (1 − p)n = (c/v ) n−1 = (c/v )1+ n−1 , 1 since p = 1 − (c/v ) n−1 . Alternatively, c (1 − p) v because v (1 − (1 − p)n−1 ) = v − c from the equilibrium condition. In any case, the probability that the crime is unreported increases with the number n of bystanders. (1 − p)n = (1 − p)n−1 · (1 − p) = Bystander effect: more bystanders lead to less probability of reporting the crime/helping the victim. ECON 302 (SFU) Lecture 3 January 22, 2016 36 / 39 Social Psychology vs. Game Theory (Osborne, 2003) Social psychology: 1 2 3 “diffusion of responsibility”: the larger the group, the lower the psychological cost of not helping. “audience inhibition”: the larger the group, the greater the embarrassment suffered by a helper in case the event turns out to be one in which help is inappropriate. “social influence”: a person infers the appropriateness of helping from others’ behavior, so that in a large group everyone else’s lack of intervention leads any given person to think intervention is less likely to be appropriate. These explanations amount to increasing the cost c and decreasing the benefit v (of intevening/reporting the crime) with n. ECON 302 (SFU) Lecture 3 January 22, 2016 37 / 39 Social Psychology vs. Game Theory (II) We have instead assumed that the cost c and the benefit v are constant, independent of group size n. We conclude that the bystander effect is something more fundamental, an inevitable consequence of the strategic interaction of the bystanders. Our Nash equilibrium analysis rests on the premise that whether a person intervenes depends on how likely he/she thinks others would intervene. This perfectly reasonable premise leads to the disturbing conclusion of the bystander effect. Advantage: game-theoretic analysis is universal, the same analysis is applicable to the bystander effect as well as to market competition, voting, bargaining, etc. ECON 302 (SFU) Lecture 3 January 22, 2016 38 / 39 Conceptual Review Questions 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 Is pure strategy a mixed strategy? And the converse? What’s the difference between a strategy profile and a Nash equilibrium? In a mixed-strategy Nash equilibrium, why solve for indifference? Why not do it for a pure-strategy Nash equilibrium? Does it ever make sense to compare different players’ payoffs? When you’re doing ISD, do comparisons between player 2’s payoffs help determine whether you should delete a row? Why can a NE, whether or not it is in pure strategies, only involve strategies that survive ISD? If a game is dominance solvable, what can you say about its NE? If you need to find the NE of a game that’s bigger than 2x2x2, what could you do first to reduce your workload? Is game theory only about complete-information and simultaneous-move games? ECON 302 (SFU) Lecture 3 January 22, 2016 39 / 39