Nov 2014
No.209
Ready for Revolution?
The English Economy before 1800
Morgan Kelly and Cormac Ó Gráda
WORKING PAPER SERIES
Centre for Competitive Advantage in the Global Economy
Department of Economics
Re a d yforRe volution?
The Eng lish Ec onom yb e fore 18001
M org a nKe lly
[em a il:m org a n.ke lly@ uc d .ie ]
a nd
Corm a c Ó Grád a
[em a il:c orm a c .og ra d a @ uc d .ie ]
Re vise d ve rsionofthe pa pe rpre se nted a tthe c onfe re nc e c om m e m ora ting the 50th
a nnive rsa ryofthe found ing ofthe Ca m b rid g e Groupforthe H istoryofPopula tiona nd Soc ia l
Struc ture ,1618 Se ptem b e r2014.Tha nkstoJe re m yBoulton,Stephe nBroa d b e rry,N ic k Cra fts,
N e ilCum m ins,Rom ola Da ve nport,M org a nKe lly,Da vid M itch,Joe lM okyr,Ka rlGunna r
Pe rsson,Pe terRa zze ll,Ale xShe pa rd ,Ric ha rd Sm ith,Pe terSola r,a nd Da vid Stea d forhe lpon
va riouspoints.The stand a rd d isc la im e ra pplie s.
1
ABSTRACT:
Sustaine d e c onom ic g rowth inEng la nd c a nb e tra c e d
b a c k tothe e a rlyse ve ntee nth c e ntury.Tha te a rlie rg rowth,
a lb e itm od e st,b oth g e ne ra ted a nd wa ssustaine d b ya
d e m og ra phic re g im e tha te ntaile d re la tive lyhig h wa g e s,
a nd b ya ninc re a sing e nd owm e ntofhum a nc a pitalinthe
form ofa re la tive lya d a ptab le a nd skille d la b ourforc e .
H e a lthie ra nd sa vvie rEng lish worke rswe re b e ttere quippe d
toprofitfrom the te c hnolog ic a lpossib ilitie sa va ila b le to
the m ,a nd tob uild onthe m .Te c hnolog ic a lc ha ng e a nd
e c onom ic g rowth stem m e d from suc h hum a nc a pitalra the r
tha nBose rupia nforc e s.The ywe re the prod uc tofEng la nd ’s
re sourc e e nd owm e nta nd itsinstitutions.
Ke yword s:e c onom ic history,ind ustria lre volution
JELc la ssific a tions:N ,N 3,N 5,N 6
1
Re a d yforRe volution?
M e taphorssuc h a s‘histoire immobile’a nd ‘M a lthusia nrolle rc oa ster’c a pture a n
e c onom yb e fore the Ind ustria lRe volutiontha twa sstationa ryinthe statistic a lse nse .
Butina c ontextwhe re som e m a rg ina b ove sub sistenc e wa sa pre c ond itionfor
e c onom ic g rowth e ve nsm a llc ha ng e swe re historic a llyve ryim portant.Bytod a y’s
stand a rd se ve ryEurope a ne c onom ywa spoor;litera c yra tesa nd life e xpe c tanc ya re
m uc h hig he rintod a y’sN e pa lorN ig e ria tha nin,sa y,ancien régime Fra nc e .Bythe
sa m e toke n,d iffe re nc e sinc onsum ptionle ve lstha twould se e m trivia lnowa d a ysm ig ht
m e a nthe d iffe re nc e b e twe e nstag na tiona nd g rowth inthe e ig htee nth c e ntury.This
pa pe ra rg ue stha tsuc h d iffe re nc e swe re a fe a ture ofthe British e c onom yb e fore the
la te e ig htee nth c e ntury.
1. Growth:
Althoug h e c onom ic g rowth b e fore the m id nine tee nth c e nturywa sve ryslow
b yla tersta nd a rd s,the la testa ttem ptsa te stim a ting British outputa nd prod uc tivityin
the m ore d istantpa stre ve a la nupwa rd tre nd inGDP tha tb e g a nlong b e fore the a g e s
ofc ottona nd stea m (Broa d b e rryet al.,forthc om ing ;N uvola ria nd Ric c i2013).Fig ure 1
d e sc rib e sthe m ove m e ntsinGDP a nd GDP pe rhe a d (b oth m e a sure d inlog s) in20ye a rb loc ksb e twe e n13901409 a nd 185069 im plie d b yBroa d b e rryet al.1O ve rthis
pe riod ,GDP g re w a b outtentim e sa sfa sta sGDP pe rhe a d .N ote tha tfrom the e a rly
se ve ntee nth c e nturyon,GDP pe rhe a d wa shig he rine a c h pe riod tha ninthe pre vious
pe riod :g rowth he nc e forth wa ssom e how b uiltin.N ote toothe im plic a tiontha tthe
g rowth ra te ofGDP pe rhe a d fe lld uring the e ig htee nth c e nturyb e fore a c c e le ra ting
2
a g a ine a rlyinthe nine te e nth.
Fig ure 1.GDP a nd GDP pe rc a pita inEng la nd 1400187
0
The re a re othe rsig nsofprog re ssinthispre Ind ustria lRe volutione ra .O ne is
the re m a rka b le inc re a se inlite ra c y(onwhic h m ore b e low):b e twe e n1600 a nd 17
50
Eng la nd m ove d from b e ing e sse ntia llya pre litera te soc ie tytoone whe re m ore tha n
ha lfofa lla d ultsc ould a tle a stsig nthe irna m e s.And a lthoug h litera c y(a sm e a sure d
thus) d id notinc re a se m uc h forsom e d e c a d e sthe re a fter,itsqua lityd id .Thisis
re fle c ted inthe inc re a sing num b e rofb ookspub lishe d a nd re a d a nd inthe rising
c irc ula tionofne wspa pe rs,from le sstha na m illionin1690 to7
.3 m illionin17
50 a nd 16
m illionin1800,d e spite he ftyinc re a se sinstam pd utypa id (Aspina ll1946,1948;Bla c k
1991;M okyr2009:43;Ga rd ne r2013).Bookswe re m ostlythe provinc e ofthe m id d le
c la sse s;b utwhile the hig h c ostofne wspa pe rsa nd b ooksc onstra ine d the irpurc ha se to
the e lite a nd the m id d le ra nks,the irre a d e rshipre a c he d wid e r:‘a sk a la nd lord whyhe
take sthe ne wspa pe r:he ’lltellyoutha tita ttra c tspe ople tohishouse ’(Fe a the r1985:
43;Eric kson1990;W illia m Cob b e tt,Political Register, 26 Se ptem b e r1807
,a sc ited in
Aspina ll1946:37
).
3
Anothe rind ic a toristhe inc re a sing urb a niza tiona nd ope nne ssofthe e c onom y.
The proportionofthe popula tionliving intownsorc itie softenthousa nd orm ore
rose from 5.8 pe rc e ntin1600 to13.3 pe rc e ntin17
00 a nd 20.3 pe rc e ntin1800 (d e
Vrie s1984:Ta b le 1.7
).W ith inc re a sing c om m e rc ia liza tionc a m e inc re a se sinthe
va rie tyofg ood sc onsum e d (M c Ca nts2007
;H e rsh a nd Voth 2008),a nd M c Ca nts
(2007
:461) notestha tc onsum ptionofthe ne w ‘e xotic ’prod uc tsfrom the Am e ric a s
a nd Asia wa snotc onfine d tothe ric h.
A furthe rg a inwa sthe sig nific a ntrise ina d ultlife e xpe c tanc y,e vid e ntinthe
c a se ofthe e lite from the se ve ntee nth on(Ed wa rd s2008;Joha nsson2010;Cum m ins
2014).Althoug h W rig le ya nd Sc hofie ld ’s(1981:230) orig ina lb a c kproje c tione stim a tes
d e tec ted little e vid e nc e ofa ninc re a se inlife e xpe c tanc ya tb irth d uring those
c e nturie s,W rig le yet al.’sfa m ilyre c onstitutionvolum e (1997
:295) found a ninc re a se
d uring the e ig htee nth c e ntury.Thistallie swith La nd e rs’(1993:1687
4) find ing tha t
the life spa nofthe ‘g e ne ra lpopula tion’ofLond onrose from the 17
30son.
The se outcom e sa re sum m a rize d inFig ure 2.2
Fig ure 2.Life e xpe c tanc yinEng la nd ,16501800
N ote:e stim a tesofe0 inW rig le ya nd Sc hofie ld (1981);W rig le yet al. (1997
);
a nd La nd e rs(1993:17
1).
4
The sig nific a ntd ownwa rd d riftinthe c oe ffic ie ntsofva ria tionofc e re a lpric e s
a c rossnine Eng lish re g ionsb e twe e nthe 1640sa nd 17
40sim plie ssig nific a ntm a rke t
integ ra tion,pre sum a b lythe prod uc tofim prove d c om m unic a tions,b e fore the m id e ig htee nth c e ntury(Fig ure 3).3 The g ra d ua ld e c line inthe sha re ofthe la b ourforc e
e m ploye d ina g ric ulture a lsoim plie se c onom ic prog re ss,a lthoug h e stim a tesofthe
e xtentoftha td e c line d iffe r(se e Fig ure 4a ).The d ispa ritie sund e rline the tentative
c ha ra c terofm uc h ofthe d a ta invoke d inthise ssa y.4 Sha wTa ylora nd W rig le y’s
e stim a tesinform the irc a se forthe hig h prod uc tivityofpre ind ustria lEng lish
a g ric ulture ,while Cla rk’se stim a te sund e rpinhisb le a k a sse ssm e ntofa g ric ultura l
prog re ssonthe e ve ofa nd d uring the Ind ustria lRe volution,a sd e sc rib e d inFig ure 4b ;
we re turntothisissue la ter.
Fig ure 3.Coe ffic ie ntsofVa ria tionofCe re a lPric e s(9 Re g ions),1640s17
40s
5
Fig ure 4.Estim a tesof(a ) Ag ric ulture ’sO c c upa tiona lSha re a nd (b ) La b our
Prod uc tivityCha ng e inAg ric ulture c .15251850
Asd isc usse d la ter,prod uc tivityim prove m e ntm a yb e id e ntifie d inc e rtainothe r
se c torsb e fore the Ind ustria lRe volution.Insum ,the slow b utse lfsustaining a d va nc e
ofthe British e c onom ya nted a testhe Ind ustria lRe volutionb ya c e nturyorm ore .
2. Industrializing on an Empty Stomach?
Thissortofslow g rowth isnote ntire lyc onsiste ntwith re c e nthistoric a l
e stim a tesofEng lish c a lorie supplie s,whic h im plysig nific a ntle ve lsofm a lnutritiona t
the lowe re nd ofthe soc ioe c onom ic spe c trum we llintothe nine tee nth c e ntury.Fog e l
(2004:9) putpe rc a pita supplie sinEng la nd a t2,168 kc a lsin17
50 a nd 2,237kc a lsin
1800,while Broa d b e rryet al.(2011) propose 2,248 a nd 2,165kc a ls,re spe c tive ly,forthe
sa m e d a tes.Be a ring inm ind tha tone ofthe U nited N a tions’c urre ntpre c ond itionsfor
d e c la ring a fa m ine isone fifth orm ore ofthe popula tionsub sisting onfe we rtha n
2,100 kc a lsoffood pe rd ie m ,suc h a ve ra g e sa re c onsistentwith e xtre m e d e priva tiona s
a stea d ystate onthe e ve ofthe Ind ustria lRe volution.
6
N ote,m ore ove r,tha tthose e stim a tesre fe rtoa re pre se nta tive ye a r:ye a rtoye a r
fluc tua tionsinoutputb e fore c .1800 c a nonlyha ve e xa c e rb a ted a m a lnutrition
prob le m initia llyhig hlig hted b yFog e l(1994).If,a sind ic a ted b yBroa d b e rryet al.
(2011),a g ric ultura loutputd e c line d b yone fifth orm ore ona d oze noc c a sionsb e twe e n
1550 a nd 1800,with c um ula tive shortfa llsoftwofifthsorm ore in159497
,162931,a nd
17
0910,the na tthe nonc risisra tespropose d ,m a ssive m ortalitya m ong the poor
would sure lyha ve b e e nuna void a b le inc risisye a rs.Ye tonlyinthe 1590sd id Eng la nd
suffe ra na tionwid e fa m ine ,a nd e xc e ssm orta litythe na c c ounted fornom ore tha n
one pe rc e ntofthe popula tion(Ó Grád a 2014a ).5
N otsurprising ly,the se b le a k e stim a te sofc a lorie a va ila b ilityonthe e ve ofthe
Ind ustria lRe volutionha ve provoke d a re sponse (Ke llya nd Ó Grád a 2013;M e re d ith
a nd O xle y2014;H a rris2014).W hile itistem pting toc om pa re ind e ta il,wha tne e d s
e m pha sizing m ostistha ta lle stim a tesa re sub je c ttoc onsid e ra b le m a rg insofe rror.
W hile b roa d e rinte rpre tationsofe c onom ic tre nd sa nd c onsum ptionle ve lsm ustnot
re stonsuc h d a ta a lone ,the e stim a tesinTa b le 1im plyc onsum ptionle ve lsc om fortab ly
a b ove b a re b one ssub sistenc e onthe e ve ofthe Ind ustria lRe volution.The se m ore
g e ne rouse stim a tesofc a lorie a va ila b ility6 a re e a sie rtore c onc ile with e vid e nc e tha t
while the positive c he c k,inthe se nse ofthe shortrunre sponse ofm ortalitytopric e
a nd re a lwa g e shoc ks,wa spowe rfulinthe M id d le Ag e s,itha d virtua llyd isa ppe a re d b y
the la te e ig htee nth c e ntury(Ke llya nd Ó Grád a 2014a ).
The se re visionsa lsoa void the unc om fortab le im plic a tiontha tonthe e ve ofthe
Ind ustria lRe volutionpe rc a pita c a lorie c onsum ptioninFra nc e m a tche d tha tof
Eng la nd .Tha twould b e d iffic ulttosqua re with the la tter’sc onsid e ra b le a d va ntag e a t
thispointinterm sofm e a na d ulthe ig ht,re a lwa g e s,life e xpe c tanc y,a nd la b our
7
prod uc tivityina g ric ulture .7Ke llya nd Ó Grád a (2013) a nd Ke llyet al.(2014a ) link the
a d va ntag e Eng lish worke rsha d ove rFre nc h interm sofc a lorie supplie stothe irhig he r
stature a nd hig he rprod uc tivity.
Ta b le 1.Ca lorie spe rhe a d a nd pe rc onsum ing unitinE& W (17
501800) a nd
Fra nc e (in17
05a nd 1800)
Year
kcals per capita
kcals per consuming unit
England
17
50/7
0
2,900/2,950
3,600/3,650
1800
2,7
50/2,950
3,450/3,650
17
05
1,657
2,209
1800
2,000
2,667
France
Sourc e s:Toutain1995;Fog e l2004:9;Ke llya nd Ó Grád a 2013
3. Literacy and Numeracy
Tod a yb oth the ore tic a la nd e m piric a lre se a rc h hig hlig htsthe link b e twe e n
e d uc a tiona la c hie ve m e nta sa m e a sure ofhum a nc a pitala nd c a use ofe c onom ic
g rowth.The re ise ve nsom e e vid e nc e tha te d uc a tiona lhum a nc a pita lm a ttersm ore in
le ssd e ve lope d e c onom ie stha ninm ore d e ve lope d e c onom ie s(e .g.H a nushe k a nd
W oe ssm a n2012).W he the rthise vid e nc e ha sa b e a ring onBrita inonthe e ve ofthe
Ind ustria lRe volutionre m a insm oot.Asnote d e a rlie r,litera c yra te sg re w im pre ssive ly
inpre ind ustria lEng la nd ,whic h b e twe e nc .1500 a nd c .17
50 shifted from b e ing m a inly
a soc ie tyofillitera te stoone whe re ha lfofa llb rid e sa nd g room sc ould a tle a stsig na
m a rria g e re g ister(Stephe ns1990:555).O nthe othe rha nd ,Eng la nd ’sfa ilure tole a d in
8
the litera c ysta ke s(a g a ina sm e a sure d b ythe a b ilitytosig na m a rria g e re g ister) ha sle d
a wid e spre a d b e lie ftha tlitera c yc a nnotha ve m a ttere d m uc h forind ustria liza tion
(M okyr2009:23940;M itch 1992:1415,21314;M itch 1993;Re is2005:206;Alle n2009:
226fn8).8 Inthisre g a rd Eng la nd wa sb e hind the N e the rla nd s,a nd itsle a d ove rFra nc e
wa sa tte nua ting inthe e ig htee nth c e ntury(Ta b le 2).9
Sc hooling ’srole isc om plic a ted b yitsd ua lc onsum ptiona nd hum a nc a pital
a spe c tsa nd b yitsd ua la ffe c tive a nd c og nitive func tions(Re is2005).Som e ofthe
c onsum ptiond e m a nd forlitera c ywa s,pre sum a b ly,d rive nb yre lig ion;inthe
se ve ntee nth a nd e ig hte e nth c e nturie sthe pa rish c le rg ye ve rywhe re pla ye d a ke yrole
inrunning the sc hoolsa nd c ontrolling the c urric ulum .Butthe re lig iousc ontentof
wha tpe ople re a d fe llove rtim e .In167
0 item sd e voted tona rrowlyre lig ioustopic s(i.e.
pra ye rb ooks,se c taria nd isputes,e c c le sia stic a lhistory,e tc.) a c c ounted fora b outone
pub lic a tioninfour;in168081,whe npopish plotswe re m uc h inthe a ir,for30 pe r
c e nt.10 The proportionofpub lishe d b ooksd e voted tore lig iousa nd philosophic a l
sub je c ts,m ore b roa d lyd e fine d ,fe llfrom ne a rlytwofifthsofthe totalinthe 17
00sto
a b outone fifth inthe 17
90s(M okyr2009:47
).
Ta b le 2.Litera c yinEng la nd a nd Fra nc e ,17
5017
89 (% )
France
England
De c a d e
M
F
M
F
17
509
39
19
61
37
17
609
44
20
62
37
17
7
09
45
23
62
38
17
809
46
23
62
39
Sourc e :H oud a ille 197
7
:68;Sc hofie ld 1981:207
9
Ase lse whe re inEurope ,inEng la nd the a b ilitytore a d a nd write ha d strong
soc ia lc la ss,urb a nrura l,a nd g e nd e rd im e nsions(H ouston1988:5253;13033).Pre sc ot
insouthwe ste rnLa nc a shire ,e pic e nterofEng la nd ’swa tchm a king ind ustrysinc e the
e a rlye ig htee nth c e ntury(Ba ile ya nd Ba rke r1969),isa c a se inpoint.Pre sc ot’spa rish
re g istersc ontaind a ta onthe profe ssionsofg room sa nd the ir(in)a b ilitytosig nthe
m a rria g e re g isterfrom the 17
7
0s.Se ve ra lpointsstand out.First,the ove ra lllitera c y
ra te wa slow— 52pe rc e ntofg room sa nd 7
8 pe rc e ntofb rid e sfa ile d tosig n— a nd
showe d little sig nofa nyinc re a se b e fore the m id nine tee nth c e ntury.Thiswould
se e m tosupportthe c la im tha tind ustria liza tiond id notre quire wid e spre a d litera c y.
Se c ond ,howe ve r,the re wa sc onsid e ra b le va ria tioninlite ra c ya c rossoc c upa tions.
Collie rswe re ne a rlya llillitera te throug houtthe pe riod ,a swe re shoe m a ke rsa nd
la b ore rs.Fa rm e rswe re m uc h le sslike lytob e illitera te— a nd Thirsk (1985:57
14) ha s
hig hlig hted the role ofprintinha stening the d iffusionofa g ric ultura ltec hnique s— b ut
le sssotha nthe irwive s.W hitec olla rworke rs,inva ria b lylitera te,m a rrie d litera te
wom e n.And ,m ore sig nific a ntly,wa tchm a ke rsa nd a llie d tra d e sm e n/a rtisa nswe re
m uc h le sslike lytob e illitera te tha nthe a ve ra g e b ut— a nd thissug g e ststha tforthe m
litera c ywa sm ore a ninve stm e ntra the rtha nshe e rc onsum ption— the irwive swe re
usua llyillitera te.Itwa slike wise with shoe m a ke rs,whe e lwrig hts,a nd we a ve rs.11
The pa tterninthe ne ig hb ouring pa rish ofW a rring tonSt.Elphin’s,whe re d a ta
a re a va ila b le for17
5417
7
6,wa sra the rsim ila r,a lthoug h litera c yra te sthe re we re
hig he r.W a rring ton,like Pre sc ot,wa sa loc usofc ra ftind ustryb e fore the Ind ustria l
Re volution.ForW a rring tonshoe m a ke rsthe ra tiosfornotsig ning wa s25/81a nd it
wa s64/81forthe irb rid e s;forye om e na nd the irwive s,the ra tioswe re 3/39 a nd 21/39.
10
And while a llofW a rring ton’sfourtee nwa tchm a ke rssig ne d ,onlyha lfofthe irwive s
d id .InW a rring tontoo,ne a rlya llwhe e lwrig htsa nd m illwrig htswe re like lytob e
litera te,b utthe irb rid e swe re unlike lytosig n.Ag a inne a rlya llthe wive softhe
re la tive lya fflue ntc ould sig n.Inb oth pa rishe sa llc a b ine tm a ke rsc ould sig n.The
ra the rc om ple xpa tte rnfound inPre sc ota nd W a rring tonre fle c tsthe d ua l
inve stm e nt/c onsum ptiona spe c thig hlig hted b yRe is(2005).
Da ta onnum e ra c y,a rg ua b lym ore im portantfore c onom ic d e ve lopm e nttha n
litera c y,a re ha rd e rtoc om e b y.Ina c la ssic pa pe rKe ith Thom a s(1987
:104,128) m a d e
the c a se fora ninc re a se inthe e a rlym od e rnpe riod ,b utc onc e d e d tha t‘the c ha ng e
c a nnotb e qua ntifie d ’.H isob se rva tiontha tinnum e ra c yprom pted pe ople ‘touse som e
num b e rsra the rtha nothe rs’(1987
:1257
) a ntic ipa ted the use ofe stim a tesofa g e
he a ping a sa proxyfornum e ra c ya nd ,m ore b roa d ly,hum a nc a pital(A’he a rnet al.
2009).H owe ve r,a g e he a ping isonlyone ,ra the rna rrow,a spe c tofnum e ra c y.Cle a rly
a ne c onom yinwhic h pric e sa nd we ig htsa nd m e a sure spla ye d a role c ould not
func tionwithouta m od ic um ofrud im e ntarynum e ra c y,wid e lyd iffuse d a c rossthe
popula tion.12
Da ta ona g e he a ping ha ve sofa rnotyie ld e d m uc h e vid e nc e onEng la nd b e fore
the nine tee nth c e ntury.Fig ure 5d e sc rib e stre nd sina g e he a ping ,a sm e a sure d b y
W hipple ’sInd e xinfourd iffe re ntsourc e s.The firstre fe rstoove rthirte e nthousa nd
witne sse sa ppe a ring b e fore Eng lish c hurc h c ourtsb e twe e n1550 a nd 17
28.A ve ryhig h
le ve lofa g e he a ping isind ic a ted ,a lthoug h the re a re intere sting sig nsofa d e c line in
the se ve ntee nth c e ntury.13 The othe rsre fe rtothre e Lond onpopula tions:(a ) m e na nd
wom e na d m itted toStM a rtinsinthe Fie ld sworkhouse b e twe e nthe 17
40sa nd the
1820s;(b ) m e na nd wom e nb urie d a tStM a rtinsinthe Fie ld s;a nd (c ) d e fe nd a ntstrie d
11
a tthe O ld Ba ile y,17
501900.O ne surprising a spe c tof(a ) a nd (b ) isthe a ppa re nt
tend e nc yform a le stoa g e he a pm ore tha nfe m a le s:le sssurprising isthe hig he rva lue s
forthe poorb uria ls.Allse rie stre nd d ownwa rd sove rtim e ,howe ve r.Inthe c a se ofthe
O ld Ba ile y,d a ta a re thinb e fore 1800,sowe g roupe d d e fe nd a ntsforthe 17
5099 pe riod
tog e the r;we d ivid e d the nine tee nth c e nturyintofive twe ntyye a rpe riod s.Exc e ptin
the fina lpe riod (188099) the tre nd inW hipple Ind e xva lue sisc onsistently
d ownwa rd s.14 A d a tab a se ofoffe nd e rsa wa iting tria la tthe O ld Ba ile yb e twe e n17
91
a nd 1805re turnsa sim ila rre sult:1.31form a le s(n=5,546) a nd 1.37forfe m a le s
(n=2,088).15
Fig ure 5.Som e e vid e nc e ontre nd sina g e he a ping c .15501850
The foc usonlitera c ya nd num e ra c yd isc ountsthe skillsofa g ric ultura l
12
la b oure rsa nd fa c toryworke rsinthe pa st.The e a rning sb ya g e profile sc onstruc ted b y
Boot(1995) a nd Burne tte (2006) fore a rlynine tee nthc e nturyfa c torya nd fa rm
worke rs,re spe c tive ly,show sha rpinc re a se suptoa g e s30 or35,ind ic a ting inc re a se sin
skilld ue toonthe job e xpe rie nc e .Burne tte’sa nd Boot’sfoc usisona c quire d skills;
Be sse n’sa na lysisofthe skillsoftextile worke rsinM a ssa c huse ttsinthe 1830sa nd 1840s
a d d stha tpriorsc hooling e a se d the a c quisitionofonthe job skills,whic h m a ypointto
a nunsuspe c ted link b e twe e nlite ra c ya nd e a rning s,e ve ninoc c upa tionswhe re suc h a
link m ig htnotha ve b e e ne xpe c ted (Be sse n2000,2012).Ana lterna tive interpre tation
ofBe sse n’sfind ing istha tthe link tha tm a ttere d m ostinthe textile fa c torie swa stha t
b e twe e nsc hooling a nd a ffe c tive skillsra the rtha ntha tb e twe e nsc hooling a nd litera c y
(Bowle sa nd Gintis2011).The link b e twe e nsc hooling ,litera c y,hum a nc a pital,a nd
ind ustria liza tionm a yb e m ore c om plic a ted a nd ind ire c ttha nwe re a lize .Butourm a in
pointhe re istha tthe re we re im prove m e ntsinb oth litera c ya nd num e ra c yb e fore the
Ind ustria lRe volution.
4. Demographic Regime
W rig le ya nd Sc hofie ld ’sPopulation History (1981) c ontinue stoprom ptse ve ra l
a na lyse softhe shortrunre sponse ofb irths,m a rria g e s,a nd d e a thstoha rve stshoc ks.
Applying a m ultile ve lre g re ssiona pproa c h tothe Ca m b rid g e Group’s404 pa rishe s,
Ke llya nd Ó Grád a (2014a ) found tha tthe stre ng th ofthe positive c he c k d im inishe d
c onsid e ra b lyb e twe e n1540 a nd 17
00,onlytorise a g a ind uring the firstha lfofthe
e ig htee nth c e ntury,a pe riod tha tsuffe re d twosha rpm ortalityc rise s,inthe la te 17
20s
a nd e a rly17
40s.During the se c ond ha lfofthe e ig htee nth c e ntury,the positive c he c k
a g a ind isa ppe a re d a c rossm ostEng lish pa rishe s.Applying the sa m e m ultile ve l
13
re g re ssiona pproa c h tom a rria g e sa nd b irths,Ke llya nd Ó Grád a (2012) found e vid e nc e
fora sig nific a ntpre ve ntive c he c k a twork,whic h pe a ke d inthe e a rlye ig htee nth
c e ntury.
Sourc e :W rig le yet al. 1997:224,256,291,295;
Bla yo,‘M ortalité’,13842;Ta b le s1a1b
Fig ure 6.e0,e1,a nd e25 inEng la nd a nd Fra nc e ,17
40s17
80s
Com pa ring Ca m b rid g e Groupa nd IN ED fa m ilyre c onstitutionstud ie ssug g e sts
tha tonthe e ve ofthe Ind ustria lRe volutionlife e xpe c tanc ya tb irth inEng la nd wa s
c onsid e ra b lyhig he rtha ninFra nc e (Fig ure 5).The c om pa risonim plie stha tinthe
se c ond ha lfofthe e ig hte e nth c e nturythe form e r’se d g e ove rthe la tterwa sa striking
1012ye a rs.16 True ,the g a pwa sla rg e lyd ue tolowe rinfa nta nd c hild m ortality,b utthis
stillm e a nstha tsurvivorsofc hild hood inEng la nd we re le sslike lytob e sc a rre d b y
14
d ise a se tha nthe irFre nc h c ounterpa rts,with a ttend a nta d va ntag e sin a d ulthe ig hta nd
he a lth.Re c e ntre se a rc h onthe im pa c tofa d ve rse shoc ks(e .g.b e ing c onc e ive d orb orn
d uring a fa m ine ) orproa c tive interve ntionsinuteroa nd d uring e a rlyc hild hood (e .g.
b e tterm e d ic a lc a re a nd nutrition) pointstosig nific a ntlong term im plic a tionsfor
a d ultphysic a la nd m e ntalhe a lth a nd ,ind e e d ,a lsoc og nitive pe na ltie s(e .g.M a luc c ioet
al. 2009;H a tton2011;Ba rha m et al. 2013;Currie a nd Vog l2014).Sure lyitisnot
im pla usib le toe xtend tha tlink tothe pa st?
Fa m ilyre c onstitutiond a ta a lsoim plytha ttota lfe rtilityra tes(TFRs) inEng la nd
onthe e ve ofthe Ind ustria lRe volutionwe re sub stantia llylowe rtha ninFra nc e (Ta b le
4).The g a p— a b outone c hild forwom e nwhom a rrie d a t2529 ye a rs— m a yha ve b e e n
linke d toEng la nd ’slowe rinfa nta nd c hild m ortalityra tesb ut,a sjustnoted ,tha ta lso
ha d b roa d e rim plic a tionsforhum a nc a pitalform a tiona nd c hild qua lity.Sowould
e vid e nc e tha td e finitive c e lib a c ywa sm ore c om m oninEng la nd tha ninFra nc e :b ut
suc h e vid e nc e ism ore e lusive .17
15
Ta b le 3.TFRsb yFe m a le Ag e a tM a rria g e
Region
AAM 15-19
AAM 20-24
AAM 25-29
NW
7
.54
6.03
4.29
NE
8.7
9
6.90
4.94
SE
7
.25
6.33
4.55
SW
6.49
5.7
5
4.20
Ave ra g e
7
.52
6.25
4.50
England
6.19
5.02
3.56
France
Sourc e :W rig le ya nd Sc hofie ld (1983:17
3).N ote the Eng lish d a ta re fe rto160017
99,the Fre nc h to167
017
69.Fre nc h a ve ra g e isthe unwe ig hted m e a nofthe
fourre g ions.
The d a ta a re c onsistentwith b irth a nd d e a th ra te sc he d ule slike those d e sc rib e d
inFig ure 7
.The twoe quilib ria re pre se nt‘Eng la nd ’(E) a nd ‘Fra nc e ’(F).The d e a th
ra tes(dr) a nd b irth ra te s(br) a re ne g a tive a nd positive func tions,re spe c tive ly,ofthe
re a lwa g e (w).The slope sre fle c tthe a ppa re ntre la tive powe rofthe c he c ksinEng la nd
a nd Fra nc e ,with the virtua lfla tne ssofthe Eng lish dr sc he d ule re fle c ting the
d isa ppe a ra nc e ofthe shortrunpositive c he c k.Both Eng lish sc he d ule sa re b e low the
Fre nc h sc he d ule s,b utsuc h a stoprod uc e a hig he rze ropopula tiong rowth (br=dr)
wa g e inEng la nd .The find ing ,g oing b a c k toW e ir(1982),tha tEng la nd ’sd e m og ra phic
re g im e wa ssoftertha nFra nc e ’sb roa d lyc orrob ora tes.Sinc e the othe rpa rtofthe
M a lthusia nm od e ld id nota pply— b e c a use the e quilib ra ting m e c ha nism d riving
popula tiong rowth toze rowa strum pe d b yprod uc tivityg rowth (c om pa re Pe rsson
1988,2008;M ølle ra nd Sha rp2014)— the e quilib ria inFig ure 5a re ‘virtua l’,i.e.the y
we re notob se rve d .
16
!
!
brF
dr
drF
&
brE
br
drE
−
WF
−
WE
Wage
Fig ure 7
.De m og ra phic ‘Equilib ria ’inEng la nd a nd Fra nc e
Anothe rpossib ilitysug g e sted b ythisAng loFre nc h c om pa risonistha tEng lish
c ouple swe re b e tte rpositione d totra d e offc hild qua ntityforqua lity.Did the yinve st
m ore inc hild re n’she a lth a nd e d uc a tion? The juryisstilloutonthis.Kle m pa nd
W e isd orf(2012a ),using Ca m b rid g e Groupd a ta,c la im toha ve found e vid e nc e fora
tra d e offinEng la nd inthe e ig htee nth c e ntury— ‘a d e c re a se inthe c ha nc e soffind ing
litera c ya m ong a llfa m ilyoffspring fore a c h a d d itiona lsurviving c hild ofe ig ht
pe rc e ntag e points’— b utCla rk a nd Cum m ins(2013),using prob a te d a ta,fa ile d tofind
a nye vid e nc e forsuc h a tra d e offb e fore the m id nine tee nth c e ntury.18
5. North and South
The Ind ustria lRe volutionturne d the e c onom ic g e og ra phyofEng la nd onits
he a d (Fostera nd Jone s2011;2013:336).Be twe e n17
50 a nd 1850 the popula tionsha re
17
ofEng la nd ’snorthe rn‘ind ustria l’c ountie srose from 17
.7to29.2pe rc e nt,while tha tof
itsm id la nd a nd southe rn‘a g ric ultura l’c ountie sfe llfrom 46 to33 pe rc e nt(Sha wTa ylora nd W rig le y2014).Fig ure 8 d e sc rib e swa g e s,nutrition,a nd he ig htsonthe e ve
ofthe Ind ustria lRe volution,a nd sub se que ntind ustria lg rowth.The wa g e sof
unskille d worke rsinthe north we re re la tive lylow a tthe outse t;the irswitch tob e ing
re la tive lyhig h m a g nifie sthe c ontrib utionofthe northe rnc ountie s(H unt1986).In
a d d ition,the hig he rqua lityoffood inthe north isre fle c ted ina nthropom e tric d a ta,so
tha tprospe c tive e m ploye rsinthe north we re a ta d oub le a d va ntag e :notonlywa sthe
wa g e c ostofnorthe rnla b ourinm id c e nturya tthe outse tlowe r,b utthe qua lityofthe
la b ourinterm sofhe ig hta nd he a lth wa shig he r(H unt1986;H orre lla nd O xle y2012a ,
2012b ).19 Growth ra tesa re proxie d b ythe g rowth ofa g g re g a te m one yinc om e b e twe e n
17
66 a nd 1833.
The c om b ine d e ffe c tofwa g e a nd popula tiong rowth d uring the Ind ustria l
Re volutionisc a pture d inthe c a rtog ra m sinFig ure 9,whe re c ountie sa re re sc a le d in
proportiontothe ira g g re g a te la b ourinc om e (wa g e Xpopula tion) inthe 17
60sa nd
1830s.The sha d e sre fle c tthe wa g e ra te sofa g ric ultura lla b oure rsine a c h pe riod (H unt
1986).Fig ure 9 a lsohig hlig htsthe d isproportiona te im portanc e throug houtofLond on
a nd itshinterla nd tothe Eng lish e c onom y(W rig le y1967
).
Pre lim ina ryc rossc ountyre g re ssionsa na lysisnotre ported he re (se e Ke lly,
M okyr,a nd Ó Grád a 2014) find stha tthe twom ostim portantpre d ic torsof
ind ustria liza tion(a sc rud e lym e a sure d inFig ure 8) we re sm a llfa rm s20 (whic h we re
a ssoc ia ted with a hig h b iolog ic a lsta nd a rd ofliving ) a nd hig h popula tiond e nsity
re la tive tofa rm la nd ,a nind ic a torofthe e xtentofprotoind ustria le m ploym e nt.
Be twe e nthe m ,the se twova ria b le se xpla infourfifthsofthe va ria tioninind ustria l
18
e m ploym e ntoutsid e Lond oninthe e a rlynine tee nth c e ntury.
Fig ure 8.N orth a nd South
19
Fig ure 9.Countysha re swe ig hted b ypopula tiona nd wa g e sin17
60sa nd 1830s
Ea sie ra c c e sstola nd inthe north ofEng la nd isone ofthe re a sonswhynutrition
wa sb e tterthe re .Sm a llhold ing soffe re d a nind ispe nsa b le supple m e nttoinc om e from
othe ra c tivitie s,one tha tc ould g e ne ra te som e c a pitalforsm a llsc a le ind ustria la c tivity
like we a ving orwa tch m a king ,orfund the a ppre ntic e shipofc hild re ninle a rning
use fulskills.Ina d d ition,the d a iryfa rm ing a nd sm a llsc a le ind ustryofnorthe rna re a s
prob a b lyg e ne ra ted g re a terd e m a nd forfe m a le la b ourtha nthe whe a tg rowing
m onoc ulture ofthe southe a st,furthe rinc re a sing house hold inc om e .Atthe sa m e tim e
northe rnc ountie swith low popula tiond e nsityre la tive toove ra lla re a ha d hig h
d e nsitie sre la tive tothe ira g ric ultura lpote ntia l.The hig h popula tionsofthe se a re a s
we re supported b ynona g ric ultura la c tivitie s,suc h a sspinning a nd we a ving ,a nd
m e talworking .Thisd e nsityre la tive toa g ric ultura lla nd the re fore se rve sa sa proxyfor
protoind ustria la c tivity.
The re sultsa re c onsiste ntwith the vie w tha thum a nc a pa b ilitya nd skills
d e rive d from e xisting protoind ustria la c tivitywe re c e ntra l.Asnoted a b ove ,hum a n
c a pitalisoftend ism isse d a sa sourc e ofind ustria liza tiononthe g round stha tEng lish
litera c ywa sunim pre ssive b yContine ntalEurope a nstand a rd s,b utourre g re ssion
a na lysisa lsosug g e ststha tlitera c yha d a positive im pa c tonind ustria liza tion.
6. Institutions:
Anold e rlitera ture he ld tha ttwove ryEng lish institutions— the O ld PoorLa w
a nd a ppre ntic e ship— we re im pe d im e ntstoe c onom ic g rowth.The form e r,itwa s
20
b e lie ve d ,spurre d e xc e ssive popula tiong rowth,re d uc e d la b oursupply,a nd hind e re d
la b ourm ob ility;while the la tterinhib ited tec hnolog ic a lc ha ng e ,d ire c tlythroug h its
prohib itionsa nd ind ire c tlythroug h m a intaining a supplyofc he a ptra ine e la b our.A
re visionistlitera ture a rg ue stha t,onthe c ontra ry,the se institutionssupported
e c onom ic a c tivitya nd te c hnolog ic a lc ha ng e .
The O ld PoorLa w (O PL),long the b runtofa ttac ksb yM a lthusa nd his
followe rs,d id a g ood job ofre lie ving the e ld e rly,a lle via ting loc a lfood shortag e s,a nd
tre a ting c yc lic a lpove rty.Ind e e d ,the d ie taryre g im e inO PLworkhouse swa sre la tive ly
b e nig n:itinvolve d m e a torc he e se b e ing provid e d se ve ra ltim e swe e klya nd b re a d ,
a c c om pa nie d b yb roth a nd b e e r(oroa tm e a la nd m ilk inthe north),se rve d twic e d a ily.
Inpra c tic e workhouse fa re wa sfa rm ore g e ne roustha ntha tind ic a ted b yworkhouse
d ie tsc he d ule s(O ttawa y2013:2).The e xpa nsionofthe O PLwa sprob a b lyfue lle d b y
the rising inc om e snote d e a rlie r,offe ring the possib ilitie sofshie ld ing a ninc re a sing
proportionofthe popula tiona g a instd e stitutiona nd a ttend a ntsoc ia lc osts.A c a nva s
ofm id -tola te e ig htee nthc e nturyd a ta sug g e ststha tm uc h ofthe va ria tioninpoor
re lie fa c rosspa rishe sa nd c ountie sisa ttrib uta b le tod iffe re nc e sinre sourc e c onstra ints
a nd the c ostofliving (Ke llya nd Ó Grád a 2011).Still,the ke yinstitutiona lfe a ture sof
the O PLe m pha size d b yhistoria ns— fund ing throug h the pa rish unit,the link b e twe e n
e ntitle m e ntsa nd se ttle m e nt,a nd loc a la d m inistra tiona sa m e a nsofre d uc ing m ora l
ha za rd a nd the g a pb e twe e nprinc ipa la nd a g e nt— owe d m ore tohistorytha ntorising
GDP (Sola r1996).Ec onom ic g rowth m a yha ve b e e na pre c ond ition form ore
spe nd ing onre lie f,b utthe struc ture ofthe O PLe nsure d itse ffe c tive re d istrib ution.
N oristhe re m uc h e vid e nc e tha tthe O PLspurre d popula tiong rowth a nd re d uc e d
wa g e s,a tle a stb e fore the la tere ig htee nth c e ntury:the proportionofne ve rm a rrie d s
21
re m a ine d a b ove tenpe rc e nta nd the m e a na g e a twhic h wom e nm a rrie d re m a ine d
a b ove 26 ye a rsuntilm id c e ntury(W rig le ya nd Sc hofie ld 1981:255).
Ad a m Sm ith b e lie ve d tha ta ppre ntic e shipswe re ‘a ltog e the runne c e ssa ry’
b e c a use the a c quisitionofa rtisa na lskillsre quire d no‘long c ourse ofinstruc tion’;the
Statute ofArtific e rs[1562],the le g isla tionund e rpinning the system ,m e re lyre stric ted
c om pe titiona nd re d uc e d output.H owe ve rpla usib le Sm ith’sa rg um e nta priori,re c e nt
re se a rc h showstha tinEng la nd ,fa rfrom b e ing som e ‘d inosa urofa c orpora te
c re tac e ous’,a ppre ntic e shipwa sa ne ffe c tive ve hic le fortra nsm itting a rtisa na lskills
b e fore a nd d uring the Ind ustria lRe volution.Re silie nta nd a d a ptab le ,itwa sc a pa b le of
a d a pting supplytothe skillsm ostind e m a nd .Thoug h nota fford a b le b ya ll,it
provid e d m a nypoorb oyswith the prospe c tofm a rke tab le skills:m ostofthe inve ntore ntre pre ne ursofthe e a rlyInd ustria lRe volutionwe re from re la tive lyhum b le
b a c kg round s,a nd tra ine d a sa ppre ntic e s(M a thia s197
5;Ó Grád a 2014b ).The m ost
c onvinc ing re futa tionofSm ith’sa sse rtionsistha tthe system thrive d a sa ‘volunta ry’
m e c ha nism inhisd a y,a nd inse ve ra loc c upa tionsoutla sted the g uild sa nd the re pe a l
ofthe Statute ofArtific e rsin1814.Bya nd la rg e ,the hum a nc a pitale m b od ie d in
a ppre ntic e sc om ple m e nted the tec hnolog ic a lc ha ng e softhe e a rlyInd ustria l
Re volution(Sm ith 17
7
6:I,X[2];H um phrie s2003,2011;M innsa nd W a llis2013;Va nd e r
Be e k 2014;Epste in2004;Pre st1960:87
8).
7. Productivity Growth Before the Industrial Revolution
22
Inthe e ig htee nth c e nturya g ric ulture wa sstillthe la rg e stse c torofthe Eng lish
e c onom y.Estim a tesofprod uc tivityg rowth ina g ric ulture b e fore the Ind ustria l
Re volutionra ng e sowid e lytha tve rylittle use fulc a nb e infe rre d from the m .Alle n
(2000),Cla rk (2002),a nd Broa d b e rryet al.(2014) ha ve c onstruc ted c om pe ting
e stim a tesofoutputpe ra g ric ultura lworke rc .17
00,c .17
50,a nd c .1800.Turne ret al.
(2001:227
) ha ve e stim a tesforc .17
50 a nd c .1800 b a se d onwhe a tprod uc tiononly.
Cla rk pa intsa pic ture ofvirtua lstag na tiond uring the e ig htee nth c e ntury(Fig ure 5) a s
d oTurne re ta l.for17
501800,while Alle n(2000:1921;c om pa re Alle n2005;Cra fts
1989) re c konstha tEng lish a g ric ultura loutputpe rworke rrose b ya qua rter,b utwith a
la b ourprod uc tivityg rowth ra te ofa b out0.6 pe rc e ntpe ra nnum d uring the firstha lf
ofthe c e nturyg iving wa ytom od e std e c line (ofa b out0.15pe rc e ntpe ra nnum ) inthe
se c ond ha lf.Broa d b e rryet al.’snum b e rsa re instark c ontra st.The yre c kontha t
outputpe rworke rg re w a t0.7
0 pe rc e nta nnua llyin17
0050 a nd 0.37pe rc e nta nnua lly
in17
501800.Broa d b e rryet al.’ssqua re sm ore re a d ilywith tra d itiona lstorie sof
prod uc tivityg a insfrom pa rlia m e ntarye nc losure s,ne w fod d e rc rops,a nd
im prove m e ntsinlive stoc k qua lity(Apostolid e set al. 2008;Broa d b e rryet al.2014).
Ag a instthis,Turne ret al.’sfind ing tha twhe a ta nd b a rle y— thoug h notoa ts— yie ld s
fa ile d torise d uring the e ig htee nth c e nturyisd e rive d from a ric h d a ta b a se offa rm
a c c ounts,b utita lsoc a rrie sthe im plic a tiontha tyie ld swe re a lre a d yhig h b y17
00
(Turne ret al.2001:129,153,158).
Butitd oe sse e m pla intha tsom e ind ustrie sd id a c hie ve sig nific a ntprod uc tivity
g rowth.Ge rhold (1996:494;se e tooBog a e rt2014) ha se stim a ted prod uc tivityg rowth
inroa d fre ig hta t1.1pe rc e nta nnua llyb e twe e nthe 17
30sa nd the 1800s.Bre wing too
wa stra nsform e d b e fore the Ind ustria lRe volution,e ve nthoug h pe rc a pita b e e r
23
c onsum ptionwa sind e c line .The introd uc tioninthe 17
20sofa ne w b e e rva rie ty,
porter,le d tosig nific a ntsc a le e c onom ie sinb re wing ,firstinLond ona nd the ninthe
b ig g e rprovinc ia ltowns.M a thia sha sd e sc rib e d the inve ntionofporte ra s‘e xa c tly
e quiva le ntinitsownind ustrytoc oke sm e lted iron,m ule spunm uslinor‘pre sse d wa re ’inpottery’.21 Gla ssm a king isa lsosig nific a nt,fortwore a sons.First,itsre lia nc e
onc oa lb e g a ne a rly.The b e ne fic ia ryofa pa tentusing c oa lfire d furna c e stom a ke
‘g re e ng la ssforwind ows’spe nt£30,000 pe rfe c ting hism e thod ,e xpe rim e nting with
d iffe re ntc oa lsa nd m oving sitesa c c ord ing ly(Ba rke r197
7
:2).Se c ond ,pla te g la ss
prod uc tion,a hig hlyc a pitalinte nsive a c tivity,wa sone ofthe firstind ustrie sinBrita in
tob e ne fitfrom jointstoc k le g isla tionin17
7
3.22 Estim a tesofprod uc tivityg rowth in
c oa stalshipping inthise ra a re a lsosub je c ttoa ne m b a rra ssing lywid e m a rg inofe rror,
while re c e ntre se a rc h onthe spe e d ofoc e a ng oing sa iling shipsc .17
501830 is
c onsistentwith prod uc tivityg a ins,thoug h itd oe snotd ire c tlya d d re sstha tissue (Ville
1987
;Sola r2013;Ke llya nd Ó Grád a 2014c ).
A m ore pre c ise b utstillind ire c te stim a te ispossib le inthe c a se ofpoc ke t
wa tche s.During the e ig htee nth c e nturythe re wa sa sig nific a ntrise inthe owne rship
ofpoc ke twa tche sinEng la nd .Thisa rose inpa rtfrom a ninc re a sing intere sta nd va lue
inknowing the tim e ,b utwa tche swe re a lsore c og nize d a sstore sofva lue a nd a sm a le
fa shionitem s.Bythe e nd ofthe c e nturya nnua lwa tch c onsum ptioninEng la nd ha d
re a c he d a b out0.2m illion(Style s2007
,2008),ora b outone fore ve ryte nth a d ultm a le .
InThe Wealth of Nations Ad a m Sm ith invoke d wa tchm a king a sa c a se stud yofthe
d ivisionofla b ourina c tion,c la im ing tha ta wa tch m ove m e nttha tc ould b e ha d for
twe ntyshilling sinhisownd a ywa ssupe riortoone c osting twe ntytim e sa sm uc h in
the m id se ve ntee nth c e ntury(Sm ith 197
6:260;c ited inCipolla 197
0:144;Fostera nd
24
Jone s2011).Sm ith ine ffe c tinfe rre d a twe ntyfold g rowth inprod uc tivityfrom the 95
pe rc e ntd e c line inthe pric e ofwa tche s.A m ore c a re fula na lysisofthe c ourse of
wa tch pric e sove rroug hlythe sa m e pe riod sug g e ststha tSm ith e xa g g e ra ted ,b utnotb y
a lltha tm uc h:the re a lpric e ofwa tche sofa llkind splung e d b ythre e qua rtersorso
d uring the e ig htee nth c e ntury,im plying a na nnua lprod uc tivityg rowth ra te ofa b out
1.4 pe rc e nt(Ke llya nd Ó Grád a 2014b ).Thisg rowth wa sla rg e lythe prod uc tofstea d y,
inc re m e ntalim prove m e ntsb yunknowna rtisa nsina nind ustryinwhic h the d ivision
ofla b ourle a ve spinm a king inthe sha d e .In1817a Cove ntrywa tchm a ke rd e sc rib e d
the se ve ra ld ivisionsofthe ind ustrya sfollows(BPP 1817
:7
7
):
M ove m e ntm a ke r,isd ivid e d intofra m e m ounter,b ra ssfla tter,pilla r
m a ke r,c re w m a ke r,c oc k a nd pittanc e m a ke r,whe e lm a ke r,whe e l
finishe r,b a rre lm a ke r,b a rre la rb orm a ke r,pinionm a ke r,b a la nc e
m a ke r,ve rg e m a ke r,ra tch a nd c lic k m a ke r,a nd othe rsm a llstee lwork;
d ia lm a ke r,c oppe rm a ke r,e na m e lle r,pa inter,ha nd m a ke r,g la ss
m a ke r,pe nd a ntm a ke r;c a se m a ke r,d ivid e d intosilve rfla tter,b ox
m a ke r,c a se m a ke r,jointfinishe r;m otionm a ke r,d ivid e d intob olt
m a ke r,slid e m a ke r,m otionwhe e lm a ke r,m otionm a ke r,spring m a ke r;
c ha inm a ke r,d ivid e d intorive ter,finishe ra nd pre pa re r;e ng ra ve r,
whic h isd ivid e d intoc oc k a nd slid e e ng ra ve r,na m e e ng ra ve r;c a p
m a ke r,je we le r,sc a pe m e ntm a ke r,finishe r,whe e la nd fuze e c utter,
c a se spring m a ke r,spring a nd line ra nd polishe r;ke ym a ke r,a nd
se ve ra lothe rb ra nc he stothe num b e rof102 inthe whole .
The tra je c toryinwa tch pric e sb e a rsc om pa risonwith those oftwoothe r
c onsum e rd ura b le sla rg e lym a d e ofsilve r.Cha m b e rla yne (167
6:II,19) re ported ,no
d oub twith som e e xa g g e ra tion,tha tsilve rspoonswe re c om m onpla c e inthe house sof
‘m e a nm e c ha nic ksa nd ord ina ryhusb a nd m e n’while silve rta nka rd swe re c om m onin
25
tave rnsd uring the e ig htee nth c e ntury(H owa rd 1903).N ote the im plic a tiontha t
prod uc tivityc ha ng e infla twa re a nd tanka rd prod uc tionwa sm uc h slowe rtha nin
wa tchm a king :ha rd lysurprising ly,g ive nthe fa rg re a tersc ope forspe c ia liza tioninthe
la tter(Fig ure 9).Butwhe the rwa tchm a king wa se xc e ptiona l,orm e re lyone ofse ve ra l
ind ustrie sre g iste ring quie tprod uc tivityg rowth inthe e ra b e fore the Ind ustria l
Re volution— a m ushroom ra the rtha nye a stinthe pa rla nc e ofH a rb e rg e r(1998;
c om pa re Cra ftsa nd H a rle y1991;Te m in1998)— isa nissue b e yond the sc ope ofthis
pa pe r.
Fig ure 10.W a tche s,Spoons,a nd Ta nka rd sc .17
001800
8. Conclusion:
Sustaine d e c onom ic g rowth d id notb e g ininBritainwith the Ind ustria l
Re volution.Itc a nb e tra c e d b a c k tothe e a rlyse ve ntee nth c e ntury.Tha te a rlie r
g rowth wa sm a nife sted inurb a niza tion,c om m e rc ia liza tion,a nd tec hnolog ic a l
prog re ssinse ve ra lse c torsofthe e c onom y.Alb e itm od e st,itb oth g e ne ra ted a nd wa s
susta ine d b ya ninc re a sing e nd owm e ntofhum a nc a pitalinthe form ofa re la tive ly
he a lthya nd a d a ptab le a nd skille d la b ourforc e .H e a lthie ra nd sa vvie rEng lish worke rs
26
we re b e ttere quippe d toprofitfrom the tec hnolog ic a lpossib ilitie sa va ila b le tothe m ,
a nd tob uild onthe m .The oc c a siona lg e niusa m ong itsa rtisa nswa sg ive nthe sc ope to
c a pitalize onhistale nts.Te c hnolog ic a lc ha ng e a nd e c onom ic g rowth stem m e d from
suc h hum a nc a pitalra the rtha nBose rupia nforc e s(c om pa re M okyr2009:4062;Ke lly,
M okyra nd Ó Grád a 2014a ,2014b ;M ølle ra nd Sha rp2014).The ywe re the prod uc tof
Eng la nd ’sre sourc e e nd owm e nta nd itsinstitutions.
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EN DN O TES
1
The se num b e rsa re the b e sta va ila b le b utnotd e finitive :se e Ke llya nd Ó Grád a 2013;
H a rris2014.
2 Ra zze ll(
2014:1015)
offe rssom e a d d e d e vid e nc e c onsistentwith a re d uc tionina d ult
m ortalityd uring the e ig htee nth c e nturytha te xtend e d toa llre g ionsa nd a llsoc ioe c onom ic g roups.The se c ond re portsthe pe rc e ntag e soffa the rsofspinstersa g e d
34
und e r21re ported a live (Ra zze ll2014).The d a ta re fe rto20ye a ra ve ra g e s,e xc e pttha t
inthe se c ond pa ne l17
2039 re fe rstothe 17
30sonly.
3
The d a ta a re ta ke nfrom Bowd e n1985:8647
.
4
Ac c ord ing toCla rk (2010:56),a g ric ulture ’ssha re d roppe d from 60 pe rc e ntc .1525to
48 pe rc e ntin17
00,43 pe rc e ntin1800,a nd 34 pe rc e ntin1851.Ac c ord ing to
Broa d b e rry,Ca m pb e ll,a nd va nLe e uwe n(2011) the sha re sinthose ye a rswe re a b out
58.1,38.9,31.7
,a nd 23.5pe rc e nt,while Sha wTa ylora nd W rig le y(2014) ha ve propose d
pe rc e ntag e sof49.8 c .17
10,35.7c .1817
,a nd 26.9 in1851.The se d ispa ritie sprob a b ly
stem inpa rtfrom whe the rthe ye xc lud e (Cla rk) orinc lud e fe m a le s.Broa d b e rryet al.
re lyonsim plifying a ssum ptionsa b outfe m a le la b ourforc e pa rtic ipa tiontha tm a y
infla te the ire stim a te ofthe nonfa rm ing la b ourforc e a round 17
00.Sha w–Ta ylora nd
W rig le yoffe ra c om prom ise e stim a te.Give nthe shifting im portanc e ofd om e stic
ind ustry,itse e m sb e sttoinc lud e the fe m a le s.
5
Com pa ring W rig le ya nd Sc hofie ld ’se stim a te ofthe a g g re g a te d e a thsra te in1597a nd
1598 with the a ve ra g e ofthose in15891596 a nd 15991606 im plie sa ne xc e ssd e a th ra te
of10.1pe rthousa nd .Ina popula tionof3.9 m illion,tha twould ha ve m e a nta b out
40,000 live slost.Bythe sa m e toke nthe num b e rofb irths‘lost’wa sa b out34,500
(d e rive d from W rig le ya nd Sc hofie ld 1981:53132).
6 M uld
re w’se stim a tesa re m ore g e ne rousstill(M uld re w 2011).
7
The b e lie ftha tEng lish worke rswe re b e tterfe d tha nthe irFre nc h c ounterpa rtswa s
pe rva sive d uring the e ig htee nth c e ntury(c om pa re Ge org e 1953:2528).
8
Long ’sa na lysisofEng lish c e nsusd a ta for18511881isra the ra noutlie rintha tit
pointstosig nific a nte c onom ic re turnstosc hooling inthe m id Vic toria ne ra (Long
2006:1047
).
9
And thisg losse sove rc onsid e ra b le re g iona lva ria tionwithinFra nc e (H oud a ille 197
7
).
10
De rive d from the British Lib ra ry’sc a talog ue ofe a rlyprinted b ooks.
35
11 The
d a ta d e sc rib e d inthisa nd inthe following pa ra g ra ph a re d e rive d from
http://www.lan-opc.org.uk/Prescot/ a nd http://www.lanopc.org.uk/Warrington/stelphin/.
12
Tha nkstoAle xShe pa rd forinsisting onthispoint.
13
The d a ta a re ta ke nfrom U K Da ta Arc hive ,'
W orth'ofW itne sse sinthe Eng lish
Churc h Courts,155017
28 (SN 5652,c om pile d b yAle xShe pa rd ).
14
The a d m issionre c ord sofSt.Luke ’sW orkhouse inChe lse a a lsosurvive .The
d a tab a se sa re ve rysm a ll,howe ve r.The 86 m a le sa nd 214 fe m a le sonwhic h the re a re
d a ta in17
4355re turne d W va lue sof1.80 forb oth m a le sa nd fe m a le s;b a se d on139
m a le sa nd 252fe m a le s,W wa s1.22a nd 1.59 inthe 17
90s.
Ag e d a ta a re a lsog ive ninthe tra nsc riptsofse ttle m e nte xa m ina tionsinSt.
M a rtinsinthe Fie ld s.Inthisc a se d a ta onwom e nfa re xc e e d those onm e n.Inthe
c a se ofwom e n,the va lue ofW hipple Ind e xfe llfrom 1.96 upto17
36 to1.41inthe 17
90s.
The se va lue sa re b a se d on7
13 a nd 453 ob se rva tions,re spe c tive ly.
15
U K Da ta Arc hive SN 6412O ffe nd e rsAwa iting Tria la tthe O ld Ba ile ya sListed inthe
N e wg a te Ca le nd a rs,17
911805
(SN 6412,P.King ,O pe n U nive rsity).
16
H owe ve r,a snoted e a rlie r,Ra zze ll(2014) a rg ue sfora sig nific a ntinc re a se inEng lish
a d ultlife e xpe c tanc yd uring the e ig htee nth c e ntury.Thisc ould m e a ntha tthe g a pa t
e 25 a fterm id c e nturywa swid e rtha nim plie d b yFig ure 5.
17
H oud a ille a nd H e nry(197
8:81) im plylittle c ha ng e inFra nc e inthe fe m a le
pe rc e ntag e sne ve rm a rrie d a ta g e d 50 b e twe e nthe 17
60sa nd the 1810s:
Period
17
659
17
959
18
%
88.2
86.4
Period
17
7
59
18059
%
86.8
86.9
Period
187
859
18159
%
86.0
87
.6
And Kle m pa nd W e isd orf’sing e niousa na lysisofthe fe talorig inshypothe sis(Kle m p
a nd W e isd orf2012b ),b a se d onthe sa m e Ca m b rid g e Groupd a tase t,yie ld ssuc h a n
im pla usib le outcom e tha tone worrie sa b outthe re pre se nta tive ne ssofthe ird a ta.
36
19
Ed e nre fe rsto ‘the north c ountryfa re ofm ilk,potatoe s,b a rle yb re a d a nd ha sty-
pud d ing ’[17
97
:vol.1,p.14;se e toovol.3,p.7
7
9 (W e stm ore la nd );vol.3,p.822
(Yorkshire W e stRid ing )].
20
System a tic d a ta onfa rm size inthe e ig htee nth c e nturya re la c king sowe m e a sure
the pre va le nc e ofsuc h sm a llhold ing sa c rossc ountie sa sthe ra tiooffa rm stha td id not
e m ployla b oure rstothose tha td id in1831(M a rsha ll1833,10).Althoug h toola te tob e
id e a l,the d a ta c orrob ora te Sha wTa ylor(2012:Ta b le 7
12) a nd ArthurYoung ,whose
toursim plytha ttypic a lhold ing sinsm a llfa rm c ountie swe re m uc h sm a lle rtha nthose
inla rg e fa rm c ountie s.
21
M a thia s1959:13.M a thia s(1959:37
3) ha sa lsore c kone d tha tb re we rswe re e xtra c ting
twe ntype rc e ntm ore b e e rfrom a g ive nqua ntityofm a ltc .1820 tha n a c e nturye a rlie r.
22
Itssha kystartd re w c ritic ism from Ad a m Sm ith,whowa soppose d tothe c re a tionof
jointstoc k c om pa nie sinm a nufa c turing .
37