MODELLING THE
ATLANTIC ECONOMY,
1850-1940:
A SOCIAL ACCOUNTING
APPROACH
PROFESSOR MARK THOMAS
Friday, 13 May 2011
“...If to be well apprized of the true State and Condition of a
Nation, Especially in the Two maine Articles of it’s People, and
Wealth, be a Piece of Politicall Knowledge, of all others, and at all
times, the most usefull, and Necessary;Than surely … Such a
Knowledge of our own Nation must be of the Highest concern:
But since the attaining thereof (how necessary and disireable
soever) is next to impossible,We must Content our selves with
such near approaches to it as the Grounds We have to go upon
will enable us to make.
However, if having better Foundations than heretofore for
Calculations of this kind,We have been Enabled to come very near
the Truth;Then doubtlesse the following observations & conclusions
will be acceptable to those who have not entirely given up
themselves to an Implicit Belief of Popular Falcehoods.”
GREGORY KING, 1696
Friday, 13 May 2011
THE INTERRELATIONSHIP BETWEEN PRODUCTION,
DISTRIBUTION, CONSUMPTION AND INVESTMENT
PRODUCTION
ACTIVITIES
AND
RESOURCE
ENDOWMENT
2
3
DEMAND AND
SAVINGS
INVESTMENT
1
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GNP,
EMPLOYMENT AND
INCOME
DISTRIBUTION
SIMPLIFIED SOCIAL ACCOUNTING MATRIX
Notes:
1. Government receipt from combined
capital account.
2. Institutions (i.e Government) receipts
from rest of world.
3. Gross capital formation.
4. Exports.
5. Savings by institutions.
6. Deficit in current account of balance
of payments.
7. Imports of competitive goods.
8. Imports of non-competitive goods.
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SIMPLIFIED SOCIAL ACCOUNTING MATRIX, 1935 (£m)
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SIMPLIFIED SOCIAL ACCOUNTING MATRIX, 1907 (£m)
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DISCREPANCIES IN THE UK NATIONAL ACCOUNTS,
1855 -1913
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RATES OF GROWTH OF REAL VALUE ADDED (% PER YEAR)
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DISCREPANCY BETWEEN DIVISIA AND FISHER IDEAL DOUBLE-DEFLATED MEASURES
OF VALUE-ADDED GROWTH, 20 YEAR PERIOD
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DISCREPANCY BETWEEN DIVISIA AND FISHER IDEAL DOUBLE-DEFLATED
MEASURES OF VALUE-ADDED GROWTH, 50 YEAR PERIOD
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ADVANTAGES OF THE SOCIAL
ACCOUNTING APPROACH
Enriched description of the Circular Flow
Explicit Integration of Industrial Structure
Extended treatment of distributional issues
Enables balanced National Accounts
Enhances Productivity Measurement
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CONSTRUCTING HISTORICAL
SOCIAL ACCOUNTING MATRICES:
METHODS AND SOURCES
I: U.K., 1850-1935
II. U.S., 1860-1939
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THE ATLANTIC
ECONOMY,
1850-1940
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TRANSATLANTIC FREIGHT RATES, 1854-1913
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ATLANTIC TRADE VOLUMES AND ATLANTIC REAL GDP
1854 - 1938 (1913 = 100)
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A SPECIAL RELATIONSHIP? TRADE AND INCOME,
UK AND US, 1854-1938 (3-year moving average)
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%
SHARE OF UK EXPORTS DESTINED FOR THE USA,
1854 - 1914
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RE-EXPORTS TO USA AS SHARE OF OVERALL EXPORTS TO USA,
1854 - 1914
%
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%
SHARE OF US GOODS IN TOTAL IMPORTS INTO THE UK
1854 -1914
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£.m
UK BALANCE OF TRADE WITH THE USA, 1854 - 1913
(1913 prices)
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A WORKING AGENDA:
1) SOME BRITISH TOPICS
2) SOME AMERICAN TOPICS
3) SOME COMPARATIVE TOPICS
4)THE ATLANTIC ECONOMY
Friday, 13 May 2011