Palazzo Pesaro-Papafava
(University «Magna Graecia», Catanzaro)
Italy and England followed two deeply different pathways toward modern growth.
While Italy represents the ordinary extensive growth of all pre-modern, agricultural economies until the end of the nineteenth century, in England intensive growth is apparent as from the end of the sixteenth century. Energy consumption played a remarkable role in these diverse paths. This paper presents the reconstruction of yearly series of energy consumption per capita in both countries together with energy intensity, energy services and finally, social savings from the use of energy.
The University of Warwick in Venice, Palazzo Pesaro Papafava
22-24 May 2014

The theme of convergence or divergence among pre-modern economies has normally been examined through the comparison of real wages. More recently, an additional fundamental indicator -the series of per capita GDP for some European countries- has become available and can be used to gauge the performance of the economies and their relative level of development.
Despite its importance, energy consumption has never been used in this kind of analysis; for several reasons. Firstly, regarding energy consumption in the distant past we can mainly avail of narrative information on the sources exploited and the main technologies related to energy. We know nothing at all about the level of consumption.
In fact, until some years ago, the only continuous series of data available for some main countries solely regarded the most recent decades.
1
Only recently has it become possible for part of Western Europe to elaborate series of energy consumption from the beginning of the nineteenth century.
2
Furthermore the criteria to use in the field of research on energy in pre-modern economies are still uncertain. There is no uniform approach. Although scholars share different views on the importance of energy in the process of economic growth, nobody doubts the relevance of energy as an indicator of economic performance.
The purpose of the present paper is to start a quantitative analysis of premodern energy consumption in two main European countries, England and Wales on the one hand and the Centre and North of Italy on the other, from the middle of the sixteenth century until the eve of the First World War. Over different periods, Italy and
England were two leading European economies; respectively the late Middle Ages and early modern times. A comparative analysis of energy consumption in England and Italy can contribute to our understanding of the change of leadership in Europe and the importance of this change in the process of modern growth. Their economies followed very different paths in energy transition. The interest of this comparison lies in the importance of these countries, among the largest in Europe (151,000 and 161,000 sq km respectively),
3
whose population over the period with which we are dealing was equal to about 10-15 percent of the inhabitants of the continent.
1
The series by the International Energy Agency (IEA) start from 1960 for some countries but it is only from 1970 onwards that coverage is relatively wide.
2
Kander, Malanima, Warde, Power to the people.
See the series, exploited in the book, for Western Europe in: www.energyhistory.org.
3
Unless otherwise stated, in this paper by ‘England’ I refer always to England & Wales and by ‘Italy’ to Central and Northern Italy (from the Southern borders of Tuscany, Umbria, Marche as far as the Alps).
2

The available information on energy exploitation in these countries is considerably different. For England, the topic of energy consumption, and particularly of coal consumption, has been widely studied and a long tradition of research exists on the relation between energy and economy and on technological advance in early modern times. However, even today opinions on the importance of energy for modern growth in this country are far from uniform.
4
In Italy, with the exception of the research on specific technologies, there has been no interest in the role of energy in the medieval and early modern history of the country. Even regarding the relationship between energy and growth in more recent times, interest has been limited indeed.
I will not deal, in the present paper, with the reasons for the energy transition which started in England in the sixteenth century,
5
but with its consequences on the performance of the economy. I will try to follow the path of energy exploitation: from the input of energy to its transformation by the converters and finally to its output in the form of energy services or useful energy and its contribution to the growth of the economy. In the first section, on the basis of direct data, I will present the level and the sources of energy exploited in both countries in the last half century of our reconstruction. In the second section, I will show the methods and the results of the reconstruction of two yearly series of energy consumption in both countries from 1560 until 1913. In the third, I will analyse the similarities between energy consumption and other indicators of economic performance both in England and Italy. Sections 4, 5 and 6 will be devoted to energy intensity, energy services, and social savings deriving from the use of the modern sources of energy.
1. Energy consumption between 1860 and 1913
A clear view on the differences between England and Italy in energy consumption is summarised in Table 1, the data are based on direct information and have been calculated using the same methods. This data provides a first overview of the differences between these countries for a period when direct statistical information is available. From these data we will proceed backward and present the trends of energy consumption since the sixteenth century.
Table 1 . Energy consumption per capita, per source, in Italy and England in 1860-61 and 1913 (in
Gj and kcal –per year and per day- and percentages of any source on the total).
% Gj/year kcal/year kcal/day % Gj/year kcal/year kcal/day
1 Food
2 Firewood
3 Fodder
4 Water and wind
5 Coal
3.9
0.0
2.9
1.5
91.7
4.3
0.0
3.2
1.6
100.1
1,017,082
0
756,291
391,185
23,914,458
2,787
0
2,072
1,072
65,519
21.4
51.4
18.7
1.0
7.5
3.9
9.3
3.4
0.2
1.4
920,035
2,209,803
803,956
42,992
322,442
2,521
6,054
2,203
118
883
4
Clark, Jacks, ‘Coal and the Industrial Revolution, 1700-1869’, p. 39:“recent cliometric accounts have assumed coal-mining mattered little to Industrial Revolution. In contrast both E.A. Wrigley and Kenneth Pomeranz have made coal central to the story”.
5
I discussed these topics in Malanima, ‘The path towards the modern economy. The role of energy’.
3

1 Food
2 Firewood
3 Fodder
4 Water and wind
5 Coal
6 Oil
100.0 109.2
%
2.4
0.0
1.2
0.1
95.0
1.3
Gj/year
3.5
0.0
1.8
0.1
139.6
1.9
26,079,017 kcal/year
842,220
0
421,110
35,092
33,337,855
456,202
71,449 kcal/day
2,307
0
1,154
96
91,337
1,250
100.0
%
19.6
21.1
16.0
0.2
41.0
1.1
18.0 4,299,228 11,779
Gj/year kcal/year kcal/day
4.7
5.0
3.8
0.0
9.8
0.3
1,118,850
1,204,476
912,776
11,417
2,340,452
62,793
3,065
3,300
2,501
31
6,412
172
7 Primary electricity 0.0
100.0
0.0
146.9
0
35,092,479
0
96,144
1
100.0
0.2
23.9
57,084
5,708,419
156
15,640
Sources : for England, Warde, Energy consumption in England and Wales (as I will show in Section
2, the level of energy consumption by Warde is hardly different from mine because of my recalculation of the traditional sources of energy for the period until 1830 and readjustment of the following data processed by Warde until 1913; the percentages of every source out of the total are the same) : for Italy, Malanima, Energy consumption in Italy in the 19 th
and 20 th
centuries, and
Malanima, Le energie degli italiani. Due secoli di storia.
Note : 1 Gj (gigajoule) is equal to 238,846 kcal.
Data refers to all sources of energy which have a cost. Free sources such as sunlight, or energy carriers not exploited by human beings, are excluded.
6
Traditional sources are represented in the lines 1-4 of our Table. We find, in the first line, Food for human beings; the originary source of energy. Firewood represents the second source exploited by humans and is almost always the main source of energy in pre-modern economies. The third, Fodder , is the feed for working animals, that is the fuel of these biological machines, exploited in agriculture and transportation since the Neolithic agricultural revolution. Here fodder, expressed in some energy measure, is divided by the population, such as today the oil for our cars is divided among the inhabitants of a country and is part of their per capita consumption of energy. Water and wind power, consumed by mills and sailing ships, is divided by the population. We see that this share of the energy consumed, although important since it is the only source of mechanical energy not provided by human beings and animals, represents a negligible share of the total in mere quantitative terms.
7
Coal is the only modern energy source exploited in
1860-61, while in 1913 it appears together with oil and primary electricity, that is electricity produced through water power.
As we see, some main differences between England and Italy are apparent both in the level and structure of energy consumption. They derive primarily from the availabil-
6
For the methods used to quantify pre-modern energy sources see: Malanima, Energia e crescita nell’Europa preindustriale, Kander, Economic growth, energy consumption.
7
As an example, let us assume the existence of a watermill every 250 inhabitants (such as at the time of the Domesday Book) and the power of the mill equal to 3 HP. Even if the mill is active 24 hours per day and the full power is exploited, the total energy consumption is equal to 72 Hph
(Horsepower hour, a measure of energy), that is to 46,165 kcal. If we divide this amount by the population (46,165/250), the result is 185 kcal per day; a very modest energy consumption even when compared to the only input of energy in the form of food, about 2,500 kcal per capita per day. A similar calculation for the wind power of sailing ships also results in a very modest contribution to total energy consumption.
4

ity of modern energy sources. Concentrations of coal exist, in fact, in many parts of
Northern and Midland England, South Wales, the central belt of Scotland, together with several areas in Central Northern Europe. In Mediterranean Europe, coal mines existed only in Southern France and some regions of Spain, but not in Italy. While England is rich in coal, coal is completely lacking in Italy.
As to the level, per capita energy consumption in England is six times that in Italy both in 1861 and 1913. In the period covered by Table 1, England is the main European and world consumer of energy in per capita terms. The level of consumption in Italy is closer to the ordinary level of the other European countries.
8
The difference in the structure of consumption between our two countries is striking. In the Italy of 1860-61, the only modern source, coal, represents a negligible part of total consumption - about 7-8 percent - while more than 90 percent is provided by traditional energy carriers. In England, by contrast, 92 percent of the energy consumed comes from coal. Traditional sources represent a negligible share of the total. In England, on the eve of the First
World War, the share of the modern sources was 96 percent. We can see that in Italy the modern energy carriers progressed rapidly in the period covered by our Table: from the 7-8 percent half a century earlier, in 1913 they already represented 43 percent.
While coal is the main carrier of energy, oil and primary electricity, the sources of the
Second Industrial Revolution, are still negligible both in England and Italy.
It is barely necessary to stress, as E.A. Wrigley did, commenting the same differences between Italy and England in energy consumption at the end of the nineteenth century, that, at the time, “the odd man out, of course, was England”.
9
Italy was more representative of the whole of Europe than England, which, from the late sixteenth century onward, had begun to diverge from the European norm and undertake the path of energy transition. This new path, as synthetically represented in Figure 1, consisted, and consists even today, for any modernising economy, of the relative and (a little later) absolute decline of the traditional energy carriers and the growth of modern energy carriers, used both for thermal and mechanical purposes.
E c modern sources mechanical thermal traditional sources
Figure 1 . A synthetic view of the energy transition. t
Note : on the vertical axis is energy consumption E c
(in some energy measure) in absolute value, while on the horizontal axis we have time.
8
Kander, Malanima, Warde, Power to the people.
9
Wrigley, Energy and the English Industrial Revolution, p. 95.
5

Since we are interested in energy in relation to modern growth, emphasis must be put on two main elements which, although apparent, are often forgotten:
1.
there is no possibility of a notable long-term increase of per capita GDP where the economic system is only supported by traditional sources of energy.
Otherwise stated: whenever the only energy carriers are those typical of the agricultural economies, the only possibility is extensive growth , defined as the increase in total GDP with a stationary or declining level of per capita GDP. There is almost no alternative use of the increasing food, fodder and firewood availability than the support of more humans and animals. Any surplus of agricultural goods can only raise the number of biological converters, but not the quantity of goods and services that these biological converters consume. This is the main constraint of the past energy systems or “organic economies”, as E.A.
Wrigley calls them.
10
A fuel such as firewood can also be employed for the production of industrial goods and not only for heating and cooking.
In any case the availability of firewood is limited by the extent and the rate of reproduction of the forests. Certainly, even in pre-modern traditional economies, some increase in per capita product is possible as recent literature has shown.
11
Research done over recent years on GDP in pre-modern economies shows that the actual level of GDP per capita underwent some increase in some epochs as a consequence of institutional and technological changes. This increase was, in any case, extremely slow, not long-lasting, and comprised within a very narrow range of values beyond that necessary for survival;
2.
only when some modern source of energy, not aimed at feeding biological converters but fuelling inanimate converters, that is modern machines, is exploited, intensive growth, that is extensive growth together with a longterm rise of goods and services per capita, becomes possible.
The rise of mechanical and not only thermal uses of energy is, however, important.
Although both thermal and mechanical exploitation of energy rise with the start of modern growth, intensive growth is always linked to the increase of mechanical energy, which is energy used to feed non-biological converters. The extending of the thermal uses of energy is not enough.
Mechanical uses are those that multiply power, which is the working capacity in the unit of time, of the economy as a whole. As traditional sources can only be employed to support more people, so modern fossil sources can only be used to support non-biological converters, thet is machines. We know that modern growth implies several contemporary changes in many different economic sectors at the same time. The institutions, cultures and structures of the economies are all involved. Energy is important, but changes in energy availability are not sufficient. The rel-
10
The expression “organic economy” had been primarily used by Cottrell, Energy and society. On the constraints of the “organic economies” the works by Wrigley are important, among which,
Continuity, chance and change ; ‘Energy constraints and pre-industrial economies’, ‘Energy and the English Industrial Revolution’.
11
See the summary in Bolt, van Zanden, ‘The Maddison project. The first update of the Maddison project. Re-estimating growth before 1820’.
6

evant variable in all cases is however, the mechanical use of energy which can also play the role of a limiting factor . A limiting factor in biology and ecology is a factor whose importance, although modest and sometimes even negligible in quantitative terms, can compromise the growth of the entire structure. There is no possibility of long-lasting growth when work is only provided by biological converters such as humans and animals.
The start of modern growth implies, in all cases and for all of the economies which undertook energy transition, the removal of the limiting factor and only after this removal does it become possible.
As we will see, until the end of the nineteenth century, the Italian pre-modern performance is a clear example of extensive growth , which is the only possible path of an economy without modern fossil sources of energy. England, by contrast, is the clear example of intensive growth , only possible through the increasing use of the mechanical force enabled by the new sources of energy.
Energy consumption 1560-1913
While for Italy we completely lack estimates of energy consumption before the
Unification of the country in 1861 and the start of national statistical data, for England, yearly estimates were elaborated and published by P. Warde in 2007.
12 The merit of this reconstruction is that it covers an economic source per year and, in a transparent way, collects all the available data elaborated on energy consumption by past historians. In order to build yearly series, several interpolations have, however, been necessary to the author of these series. Even on the most investigated source of energy, coal, P. Warde could avail of only two estimates for the period 1560-1700, that is for the first and last year.
13
While at the moment it is impossible to cover this long period with new information on coal consumption, some advancement is however possible for the consumption of traditional sources. As already seen, this share of total energy consumption almost completely corresponds to the consumption of agricultural goods.
14
I have tried to indirectly estimate the consumption of agricultural goods as a way to build a series of energy consumption of traditional sources. This attempt is useful to test Warde’s yearly estimates, but it is above all necessary to find a way to build yearly estimates of energy consumption for Italy’s pre-statistical history. If the indirect method I present appears reliable in the case of England, it should be utilised for Italy as well.
After having elaborated a new price index for England, together with agricultural and non-agricultural price indices, and calculated a new series of real wages,
15
I used the
12
Warde, Energy consumption in England and Wales 1560-2000.
13
From Hatcher, The History of the British Coal Industry. I . Before 1700.
14
A first difference is that water and wind (also traditional sources) are not included in agricultural consumption although they are included in energy consumption. We saw, however, that their quantitative importance was very modest. A second difference is that some raw materials included in agricultural product are not sources of energy. In per capita terms, however, products such as wool and hides hold the same share in agricultural product in the long run (Broadberry,
Campbell, Klein, Overton, Leeuwen, British economic growth, 1270-1870 , Table 3) and do not compromise our reconstruction.
15
The series, with the criteria followed in the reconstruction are available on request (malanima@issm.cnr.it).
7

following equation to build an annual series of energy consumption, equalised to agricultural consumption:
16 q a
 w
  p
 a
 p i

Here, per capita consumption of agricultural goods ( q a
) depends on income, represented by real wage per day or real wage rate ( w ), real agricultural prices (divided by the consumer price index) ( p a
), and real non-agricultural prices ( p i
). α, β and γ are the elasticities, with α >0, β<0 and γ >0. While energy consumption of traditional sources depends positively on real wages and non-agricultural prices, it depends negatively on the level of prices of agricultural goods. This same equation has been exploited to compute agricultural product in pre-modern economies.
17
The annual series resulting from this reconstruction is represented in Figure 2 together with the series of per capita consumption of traditional sources elaborated by P. Warde.
20
16
12 predicted
8
4
Warde
0
Figure 2 . Two reconstructions of energy consumption per capita of traditional sources in England between 1560 and 1830 (Gigajoules) (the grey curve refers to the series by P. Warde).
Sources : Warde, Energy consumption in England and Wales ; and text.
We see that the indirect method of estimating energy consumption attains results similar to those we reach exploiting and interpolating direct information. The advantages of the indirect method consist of the elaboration of yearly non-interpolated data. As we see, the range of the predicted estimates is narrower than in the series by P.
Warde and some divergence exists for the last decades of the series.
18
Adding the yearly series of traditional sources to the series elaborated by Warde for coal consumption, we obtain a complete series of per capita energy consumption for
16
On the use of this demand-side equation, see: Malanima, ‘The long decline of a leading economy’.
17
See, for instance, Alvarez-Nogal, Prados De La Escosura, ‘The rise and fall of Spain (1270-
1850)’.
18
According to Clark, Huberman, Lindert, ‘A British food puzzle, 1770-1850’, p. 215-16: “Foodstuff supplies per caput would appear to have been no better in 1850 than in 1770 or 1800, even after we have added the rising imports to Britain's production of foodstuff”. More pessimistic is the view by Overton, Campbell, ‘Statistics of production and productivity in English agriculture 1086-1871’.
8

England & Wales from 1560 until 1830 (Figure 3). After 1830, when much more direct data is available, I used the series by P. Warde (scaled, however, on a diverse value for
1830 and thus different from Warde’s original series).
70
60
50
40
30 with coal
20
10 without coal
0
Figure 3 . Energy consumption per capita in England & Wales in 1560-1830 (Gigajoules)(the traditional carriers are represented by the grey curve; the black curve includes coal).
Sources : see text.
What is important is that the similarity of our curves authorise the use of this same method to build our series for Italy from 1560 until 1861.
19
From 1861 onward, our series is based on direct statistical information.
In both cases, from the level of energy consumption per capita at the end of our two series (1830 for England and 1861 for Italy) we go back in time and reconstruct the complete series in Gj. Figure 4 is the graphical synthesis of our results.
180
150
120
England & W.
90
60
30
Italy
0
Figure 4 . Energy consumption per capita in England & Wales and the Centre and North of Italy
1560-1913 (Gigajoules)(the grey curve refers to England & Wales; the black one to the Centre and North of Italy).
19
The indices I used for this reconstruction are the same already used in Malanima, ‘The long decline of a leading economy’.
9

Sources : for England, Warde, Energy consumption in England and Wales , and text for the changes in Warde’s yearly estimates : for Italy, Malanima, Energy consumption in Italy in the 19 th
and
20 th
centuries, and Malanima, ‘ Le energie degli italiani. Due secoli di storia’, and text for the period before 1861.
The results we reach appear plausible. We can summarise the trends of energy consumption in Italy and England saying that:
in the second half of the sixteenth century the level of energy consumption per capita is hardly higher in Italy than England. In both countries it is a little lower than 20 Gj per year; in kcal per day it is around 11-13,000. One must remember that, in comparison, today, in
Western Europe, it is about 90,000 kcal per day (137 Gj per year) and therefore 7-8 times higher.
20
In the second half of the sixteenth century Central-Northern Italy was richer and more dynamic than England
(and for this reason we would expect a higher level of consumption).
The climate is, however, colder in England than Italy and thus we can suppose a higher fuel consumption for domestic heating. Furthermore, coal was already employed in England at the time. On the whole, the level was more or less the same for both countries until about 1650;
1000
800
600
England & W.
400
200
Italy CN
0
Figure 5 . Total energy consumption in England & Wales and the Centre and North of Italy 1560-
1830 (Petajoules).
Sources : the same as Figure 4. Data on population in England is from Wrigley, Schofield, The
Population history of England, 1541-1871; population in Central-Northern Italy is from Galloway,
‘A reconstruction of the population of North Italy from 1650 to 1881’, adjusted to the different extent of our definition of Central-Northern Italy.
from the end of the sixteenth century, per capita energy consumption in Italy, although highly volatile in the short term, followed a flat trend.
The level per capita was in fact, a little higher in the seventeenth cen-
20
Kander, Malanima, Warde.
Power to the people.
See the series, exploited in the book, for western Europe in: www.energyhistory.org.
10

tury and early eighteenth, and declining from about 1750. Only from the last two decades of the nineteenth century, with the start of modern growth in Italy and the introduction of both coal and primary electricity on a relatively wide scale did the trend begin to rise; although, if represented, as in Figure 4, near the high level of consumption in England, this increase is hardly perceptible. The trend of England is represented by an almost perfect parabolic curve until the end of the nineteenth century.
21
The shape of the curve is equal to that we assume as characteristic of the energy transition (such as represented in our Figure 1). From the end of the nineteenth century onwards the rate of increase diminishes and the curve presents the shape of a logistic. In any case England begins to outperform Italy in the second half of the seventeenth century thanks to the rapidly increasing consumption of coal.
Since the Centre and North of Italy had been more populated than England until
1810-20, when both areas counted 11 million inhabitants, in aggregate terms England overtook CN Italy in 1730-40 (Figure 5).
When seen against the background of Western European energy consumption, both the dynamism of England and the stagnation of Italy emerge more clearly (Figure
6). The trend of Western Europe, heavily influenced by the high level of consumption in
England and the rise in Northern countries, begins to rise from the middle of the nineteenth century, while Italy continues to follow a flat path until the end of the century.
180
150
120
England & W.
90
60
30
Western
Europe
Italy
0
Figure 6 . Energy consumption per capita in England & Wales, the Centre and North of Italy and
Western Europe 1800-1913 (Gigajoules).
Sources : the same as Figure 4 for England and Italy. For western Europe see: Kander, Malanima,
Warde, Power to the people and the series in: www.energyhistory.org.
3. Energy and other economic indicators
It is helpful, in our preliminary research on energy and growth in pre-modern times, to show, on the basis of decadal data, the similarities and differences among some main economic variables and energy consumption both in England and Italy.
21
The result of the second degree regression is e = 0,0008 x
2
- 0,0484 x + 18,011 (where e is energy consumption per capita and x is time) R
2
= 0,99.
11

200
160
120
80
40
0
A comparison between energy consumption per capita and GDP per capita, shows similar trends in the case of both England and Italy (Figure 7). The similarity, however, does not mean dependence of one variable upon the other. We can only say that both variables reveal a rising trend in England, at least from about 1650, and stability in Italy until the end of our period. A transition had already begun in England from the late sixteenth century both in energy and the economy.
22
England & W.
Italy CN
6000 200
5000
160
4000
120
3000
80 Per capita GDP
Per capita GDP
2000
Energy (per capita)
1000
0
40
0
Energy (per capita)
Figure 7 . Per capita GDP and per capita energy consumption 1560-1913 (decadal data in Gigajoules for energy consumption, left vertical axis; in international 1990 dollars PPP for per capita
GDP).
Sources : for England, text for energy, and, for GDP, Broadberry, Campbell, Klein, Overton, Leeuwen, British economic growth, 1270-1870: an output-based approach (December 18 th
, 2011), for this same period decadal averages of the series from the previous paper are not different from those in Nuvolari, Ricci, ‘Economic growth in England, 1250-1859’; for CN Italy, text for energy, and, for GDP, Malanima, ‘The long decline of a leading economy’.
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
1600 energy per c. GDP agr. labour productivity urban wages urbanisation
England & W.
1650 1700 1750 1800 1850 1900
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
1600 energy per c. GDP agr. labour productivity urban wages urbanisation
1650 1700
Italy CN
1750 1800 1850 1900
22
After all J.U. Nef was not wrong in his view of the second half of the sixteenth century as the epoch of a great change in England. See especially Nef, The rise of the British coal industry, and the articles collected in The conquest of the material world .
6000
5000
4000
3000
2000
1000
0
12

Figure 8 . Indicators of the economic performance 1600-1900 (1700=1; data every 50 years).
Sources : for energy and GDP per capita see Figure 7, for agricultural labour productivity both for
England and Italy see Federico, Malanima, ‘Progress, decline, growth: product and productivity in
Italian agriculture’; for urban wages, both in England and Italy, Malanima, ‘When did England overtake Italy?’; for urbanisation in 1600 Malanima, ‘Decline or growth? European cities and rural economies’, and, for 1700-1900, Malanima, ‘Urbanisation 1700-1870 ’.
Note : as basis of the indices I have taken 1700=1 since around 1700 the value of the indicators in
Italy and England is similar.
Rise in England and stability in Italy are confirmed by other important indicators such as agricultural labour productivity, urban wages and urbanisation (Figure 8). More specifically: in the case of England we can speak of intensive growth as from the beginning of our series, while in the case of Italy, taking into account that in the period under examination, the population increased from 6.9 million in 1560 to 15.5 in 1861 and 22 million in 1913, we could only speak of extensive growth . In the first case we find both rise in population and per capita GDP (together with other important indicators of the productive capacity), while in the second, the increase in population is correlated with downward curved or stagnant indicators.
4. Energy intensity
In order to establish an energy-GDP relationship, it is quite common to calculate energy intensity; the ratio, that is, between product and energy, or how much energy we need to produce a unit of product. At the moment we can only avail of data for
Western Europe from the beginning of the nineteenth century.
epochs no energy intensity has been computed.
24
23
For the previous
In Figure 9 English and Italian energy intensity is calculated for 1560-1600 and 1910 and is compared to the energy intensity in Europe in 2005. Data on the vertical axis refer to kcal per 2005 international dollars
PPP. On the horizontal axis the level of per capita GDP is reported, also in international
2005 dollars PPP.
25
As can be seen, in pre-modern times energy intensity was high in both England and Italy, when compared to that of Europe today. In 1560-1600 it was 4300 kcal per dollar of product in Italy and 5700 in England; while today it is ordinarily less than 2000 kcal per dollar. In the following centuries the trends in Italy and England were different.
In 1913, although still higher in both countries than today in Europe (3000 kcal/$ in Italy and 10,600 in England), energy intensity had diminished in Italy and increased in England.
Further proof of the high energy intensity characterising England during the First
Industrial Revolution can be reached through the following power equation, used in bi-
23
Kander, Malanima, Warde, Power to the people.
See the series, exploited in the book, for
Western Europe at: www.energyhistory.org. See also: Gales, Kander, Malanima, Rubio, ‘North versus South: energy transition and energy intensity in Europe over 200 years’.
24
25
With the exception of Warde, Energy consumption in England and Wales.
See also the use of the “energy coefficient”, defined as “percentage growth in energy consumption divided by percentage growth in output”, in Humphrey, Stanislaw, ‘Economic growth and energy consumption in the UK, 1700-1975’, p. 36.
13

ology to specify the differential growth of two variables (or allometric growth), such as the energy exploited by metabolism and body mass:
26 k where e is the energy consumed, e
0
is the intercept, y is GDP, and k is a constant.
Whenever the power k is lower than 1, the rate of growth in energy consumption is lower than that of GDP, while when it is higher than 1 the rate of growth of energy is higher than that of GDP. When k is equal to 1 both GDP and energy increase at the same pace. Since any economy tries to save on the energy consumed in order to reduce costs, the rate of growth of GDP is higher than that of energy consumption. Ordinarily, at least since the nineteenth century and for the countries for which data are available, k has been less than 1. An exponent less than 1 can be assumed as a characterising feature of our modern economies. We could hypothesize for pre-modern economies that, since the change in energy technology has been stationary for long periods of time, the exponent of our equation must have been close to 1.
12000
10000
England 1910
8000
6000
England 1560
Italy 1600
Italy 1910
4000
2000
0
0 10000 20000 30000 per capita GDP (2005 $ PPP)
40000 50000
Figure 9 . Energy intensity in England & W. and CN Italy in 1560-1600 and 1910 and in Europe in
2005 (kcal per dollar 2005 PPP).
Sources : for Europe (within the borders of the continent and not only the European Union) data is from World Bank, World Development Indicators . For data on England and Italy see text.
Whenever we represent the previous equation in log we have: log e  log e
0
 k log y
The exponent k can be computed through a linear regression. The results are reported in Table 2.
26
For the use of the equation in the field of economy, see Brown, Burnside, Davidson, DeLong,
Dunn, Hamilton, Mercado-Silva, Nekola, Okie, Woodruff, Zuo, ‘Energetic limits to economic growth’.
14

Table 2 . The value of the exponent of the power equations in two periods: 1560-1810 and 1820-
1910.
1560-1810
1820-1910
England & W. Italy CN
1.55 1.02
1.25 0.35
Note : although the series of energy and GDP are time series, I do not differentiate them since I am not interested in testing the relationships among variables, but only in measuring the intensity of growth in the dependent variable where the independent variable is growing. The results of the four regressions (done on decadal averages) are:
England 1560-1810: e= -7.92+1.55y
England 1820-1910: e= -5.38+1.25y
Italy 1560-1810: e= -4.54+1.02y
Italy 1820-1910: e= 0.28+0.35y p-value is <0.00001 for the 4 equations.
These results allow us to specify our comments on energy intensity. The path followed by England & Wales was energy intensive both in the first and more particularly the second period. In Italy, by contrast, the rate of growth of energy consumption was more or less the same as GDP between 1560 and 1820: the exponent was close to 1. It dropped quickly from 1820 onwards, when the importation of expensive energy sources forced Italy to save on new energy input.
In order to clarify these results on energy intensity we need to go deeper into the actual uses of energy and the efficiency of the converters in both England and Italy.
5. Useful energy
Only a tiny part of the energy we exploit becomes useful heat or useful work
(while the rest spreads through the environment as low temperature heat). We refer to this part of total energy consumption as useful energy or energy services .
27
The width of the energy services as a share of the total exploited energy depends on two main variables:
1.
the yield, that is the efficiency, of the converters;
2.
the structure, that is the sectorial composition, of the economy.
As to the first variable involved in the analysis of energy intensity, the yield of the converters of energy, that is the ratio between useful energy and the total energy input, is difficult to define accurately for our modern economies. The variety of machines we use and the rapid technical changes make it hard to specify an average yield in the use of energy for a modern nation. In any case it is often assumed that the average yield of the converters is about 30 percent; that is 30 percent of the energy is converted into useful energy services, while the rest is lost.
28
27
The topic has been addressed, for England, by Fouquet, Heat, power and light: revolutions in energy services , and Fouquet, ‘Divergences in long-run trends in the prices of energy and energy services’.
28
The topic is widely analysed by, Cook, Man, energy, society . See also Smil, Energy in World History.
15

For past civilisations, the task of defining the average yield is easier. The conversion of energy from food into mechanical work by humans and animals is about 15 percent, and the yield of traditional fireplaces was ordinarily between 5 and 10 percent. If we consider these percentages with the relative importance of food for humans, animals and firewood for heating and smelting, the result is close to 13 percent. The exploitation of water and wind power was more efficient. However, due to their modest importance, their inclusion does not modify our calculations. For England the calculation of an average yield in the conversion of energy is complicated by the introduction of coal.
While 13 percent would also be an assumable average yield in England using traditional resources, for coal it is very different. Where coal was used for heating and smelting, its yield was similar to that of firewood used for the same purposes: between 5 and 10 percent. When coal was initially utilised in steam engines, its yield was much lower. J.
Hatcher has elaborated the shares of coal used for different purposes. We see that coal was mainly exploited for heating houses until the last decades of the eighteenth century. However, the industrial percentage increased more and more. It reached about 60 percent in the middle of the nineteenth century.
Table 3 . The use of coal in Britain 1650-1855 (%).
Domestic
Industrial
Exports
Other
1650
55
33
8
4
1700
48
39
5
8
1750
43
40
8
9
1775
43
42
5
10
1800
36
50
3
11
1830
38
46
4
12
1855
21
61
8
10
Source : Hatcher, ‘The Emergence of a Mineral-Based Energy Economy in England, c. 1550-c.
1850’, p. 501.
While the domestic use of coal is only thermal, within the industrial sector we must distinguish thermal and mechanical exploitation.
29
When coal was used for purposes different from the production of mechanical power, the yield can be assumed to be around 10 percent (the use of coal for thermal purposes in industry for brewing, brickmaking, sugar refining, bleaching and dyeing, and the production of salt was more efficient than that in houses as a source of heating). Thus it is important to specify the relative weight of the share of coal utilised for mechanical work. Here I followed the calculations by J.W. Kanefsky, summarised in Table 4. We see that, until 1800, the innovating component of the energy system, which is the exploitation of coal in order to produce mechanical work, was actually modest and represented less than 10 percent of the coal exploited.
Furthermore, this share of total energy, that is the percentage converted into mechanical power, was actually the less efficient share in the English energy system. In
Table 5 the yield of the conversion of energy through steam engines is summarised. We see that only later did the yield of the mechanical conversion of energy through steam engines reach the efficiency of 10 percent.
29
It is still useful, although it does not help to elaborate quantitative estimates, Musson, ‘Industrial motive power in the United Kingdom, 1800-70’.
16

Table 4 . The share of coal exploited as source of mechanical work 1750-1910 (% of total coal consumption).
1750
1800
1830
1870
1910
%
1
8-10
15-17
35
45
Source : Kanefsky, The diffusion of power technology in British industry , pp. 338 ff. (from the consumption of the steam engines on total coal consumption) ; see also Kanefsky, ‘Motive power in
British industry’; Hatcher, ‘The emergence of a mineral-based energy economy in England, c.
1550-c. 1850’, p. 500.
In our calculations we have assumed a yield of 13 percent for the traditional sector, both for Italy and England; 10 percent for coal utilised as a thermal source and the percentages of Table 5 for coal used as source of mechanical work.
Table 5 . The yield in energy consumption as source of mechanical work 1750-1900 (%).
1750
1780
1830
1850
1900
%
0.7
1
3
5
10
Source : Kander, Malanima, Warde, Power to the people, p. 182.
We could summarise the reasons for both the level and the diverse trends of energy intensity in Italy and England saying that the machines were more efficient converters of energy than the biological engines (humans and animals) and fireplaces (and also stoves) of the past. In our mechanical economies we waste less energy in production. Furthermore, in England the abundance of coal meant that people did not feel the necessity to save it. For a long period technological progress did not coincide with the saving of energy. The use of steam increased the waste of energy, given the low efficiency of the steam engines. In one sense, the Industrial Revolution was supported by the waste of energy because of low yields of converters at that time. In Italy, by contrast, the exclusive use of traditional carriers before 1800, converted by humans, animals and fireplaces (the stove not being in use until relatively recently), was all in all more efficient than the use of coal in England. The total lack of coal in Italy and the need to import it from about 1800, with the resulting high price, prompted energy saving.
30
When the steam engine was introduced into Italy, from the middle of the nineteenth century, it was already more efficient than in the past.
As to the second variable involved, structural change, the increasing importance of industry in the economic system certainly played a role in the higher level of energy intensity of England and the lower level in Italy. In England, structural change implied
30
Malanima, Le energie degli italiani. Due secoli di storia, pp. 40-5.
17

the displacement of the economy towards a sector, industry, characterised by higher energy intensity than agriculture. In the sixteenth century, 55-60 percent of the labour force was employed in the primary sector.
31
The percentage had already diminished to
40 percent in 1700, 30 percent in 1800 and 25 percent in 1850. Agricultural GDP was 41 percent of the total in 1600, 27 in 1700, 31 in 1800 and 22 in 1841.
32
In Central-Northern
Italy, the labour force in agriculture was 62-63 percent of the total in the 30 years between 1861 and 1891. On the eve of the First World War, it was still 57 percent. The percentage of the agricultural GDP out of the total was 55 percent in 1861, 47 in 1891 and 38 in 1911. The structural change occurring in England between the late sixteenth and the nineteenth century certainly implied the passage toward the more energy demanding sectors of industry and transportation. One of the consequences was the high and rising energy intensity from the beginning of our series to the end.
Energy Consumption Energy services
160 20
120
80
40
0
England & W.
Italy
15
10
5
0
England & W.
Italy
Figure 10 . Energy consumption and consumption of useful energy (or energy services) in Italy and England 1560-1913 (decadal values in Gj).
Sources : see text.
A recalculation of our series of energy consumption in terms of useful energy or energy services implies two main consequences:
1.
the difference in energy services between England and Italy is lower than in energy consumption (Figure 10). In 1800, while energy consumption per capita in England is 3 times that in Italy, in terms of energy services it is twofold; in 1850 it is respectively 5 times and 2.5 times; in 1900 it is 8 times and 4 times;
2.
the second consequence is represented by the very slow removal of the limiting factor in England, that is the scarcity of mechanical power. Actually when useful coal consumption is computed, as in Figure
31
Shaw-Taylor, Wrigley, ‘Occupational structure and population geography’ (forthcoming) for data from 1688 on. With regard to the previous period different shares of the labour force in agriculture have been proposed by Allen, ‘Agricultural productivity’, p. 8 (74 percent in 1500 and 69 in 1600), and by Clark, ‘The macroeconomic aggregates for England, 1209-2008’, p. 56 (60 percent in 1600).
32
Broadberry, Campbell, Klein, Overton, Leeuwen, British economic growth, 1270-1870, Table 9.
18

11, we see that it remained negligible until well into the nineteenth century. It was only 1.5 percent in 1800, 3.5 in 1820, 10 in 1840, 42 in
1900 and 45 in 1913. Our series support the opinion expressed by N.
Crafts that “steam contributed little to growth before 1830 and had its peak impact about a hundred years after Watt’s famous invention.
Only with the advent of high-pressure steam after 1850 did the technology realise its potential”.
33
100%
80%
60%
40%
20% thermal energy mechanical energy
0%
Figure 11 . Percentages of thermal and mechanical services of coal consumption in England &
Wales 1750-1913.
Sources : see text.
1750
1800
1850
1900
1913
The results of our calculations of thermal and mechanical consumption of coal and their importance in terms of energy services are summarised in Table 6. We see that in the middle of the nineteenth century per capita exploitation of mechanical energy services still represented only a tiny share which was lower than 15 percent. It approached half in the first decade of the twentieth century.
Table 6 . Energy consumption and energy services (in Gj and percentages) 1750-1913.
Consumption
Thermal Mechanical % %
Services
Thermal Mechanical %
20.56
36.59
62.49
82.51
74.23
0.21
3.62
19.28
61.94
60.73
Thermal
99.0
91.0
76.4
57.1
55.0
Mechanical
1.0
9.0
23.6
42.9
45.0
2.06
3.66
6.25
8.25
7.42
0.00
0.06
0.96
6.19
6.07
Thermal
99.9
98.5
86.6
57.1
55.0
%
Mechanical
0.1
1.5
13.4
42.9
45.0
Sources : see text.
We can recognize two phases within the consumption of the new, modern sources of energy in England:
33
Crafts, ‘Steam as a general purpose technology. A growth accounting perspective’, p. 338.
19

1.
a first phase, when coal was a substitute resource for firewood and its use was then aimed at saving land. This phase lasted from the late sixteenth century until the beginning of the nineteenth. More coal implied a lower pressure on forests. Thus the use of coal engendered, so to speak, soil. During this phase, the rate of growth of GDP per capita and its level in England were not higher than those registered in past agrarian economies. The removal of the limiting factor had not yet been accomplished and nor had England surpassed the degree of development already witnessed by the “organic” civilisations.
According to the calculations by A. Maddison, in 1801, per capita GDP in England & Wales was about 2000, 1990 international dollars PPP and therefore not higher than that of Italy in the late Middle Ages or
The Netherlands in the seventeenth century.
34
2.
a second phase, when coal became a substitute resource for work and was consequently aimed at saving labour. It was only during this second phase, indeed late, that the afore mentioned limiting factor , that is the scarcity of mechanical work in pre-modern economies, was removed.
35
From the start of this second phase it was possible for England to reach far higher levels of GDP per capita than those of previous advanced “organic” economies.
Although sometimes these phases are not distinguished, a distinction is important since only with the mechanical use of coal does the really new path of energy exploitation actually start. These two epochs are apparent when we examine the social savings deriving from the exploitation of the fossil source of energy.
36
6. Social saving
We have, until now, followed the path of energy from its input into the economy to its output in the form of energy services. It is now interesting to look at the influence of the changes in energy exploitation on the economic performance.
The relationship between energy and GDP has been mainly examined using cointegration analysis and growth accounting. Despite their focus on recent periods, the results of the first technique in this specific field are on the whole disappointing. Sometimes energy growth is the cause of growth in GDP and sometimes the reverse is true: these are the main results reached by recent research on the energy-growth interrelationship.
37
Actually both variables influence each other. This technique, however, cannot be used in our analysis since GDP per capita and energy per capita are not cointegrated in the case of England and are not independent, by construction, in the case
34
Maddison, The World economy , p. 247.
35
A remarkable read on the topic is Nuvolari, The making of steam power technology. A study of technical change during the British Industrial Revolution.
36
I do not discuss here the important energy services-prices relationship.. On the topic see Fouquet, Pearson, ‘A thousand years of energy use in the United Kingdom’, and Fouquet, Pearson,
‘Seven centuries of energy services”.
37
See the reviews by Belke, Dreger, De Haan, ‘Energy consumption and economic growth. New insights into the co-integration relationship’; Payne, ‘Survey of the international evidence on the casual relationship between energy consumption and growth’.
20

of Italy.
38
As regards growth accounting, the lack of statistical information on capital and labour for the long period under examination in the present paper makes its use impossible. Through the traditional calculation of total factor productivity it is possible to capture the contribution of technological change to growth. This approach has been used by N. Crafts to show the relevance of the steam engine to economic growth in Britain during the nineteenth century.
39
An alternative way to quantify the importance of technical change is through the social saving approach. This approach can be defined as a way of calculating the differential between the actual cost of a technology and an alternative technique used for the same purpose.
40
In this way it is possible to quantify welfare benefits deriving from a technology rather than the contribution to the increased production volume.
The equation ordinarily used to calculate social savings ( SS ) is the following:
SS =( P
T1
−P
T0
) T
1 where P
T1 is the price of the alternative, new technology in order to produce goods or services, P
T0 is the price of the same production of goods and services with the previous technology. T
1
is the volume of goods or services produced through the new technique.
The advantage accruing in monetary terms from the difference between the new and old technology is multiplied by the volume of production. In our case we could calculate the difference in costs by using coal or firewood or between the power of steam engines and that of ordinary workers. However, in our case a difficulty derives from the fact that, in the long run, the introduction of a new technology modifies the prices of the alternative technology. Thus, for instance, for the year 1800 we could compute the difference in costs using coal and firewood on the basis of the prices of coal and firewood that year. However, the price of firewood at the time had been modified by the introduction of the alternative source of energy, coal. The price of firewood in 1800 is not the price of the old alternative, but the price of the old alternative influenced by the new competing source, coal. The same holds true for the differential between the cost of
Horse Power delivered by a steam engine and Horse Power produced by the workers without the steam engine. In this case, the presence of the steam engine also heavily influences the level and the course of the wages. P
T0
is such because there is P
T1
, but it would not be so without it. We will see, furthermore, that both the land and workforce saved by the introduction of coal are so remarkable that it makes no sense to establish the alternative cost of using the traditional technology.
All things considered, it seems preferable, in our case, to resort to a more traditional way of computing the social costs, that is to the resources or labour released by technological innovation. Any new technology is labour or resource (produced resources, that is capital goods included) augmenting. Sometimes, in the history of technology, researchers recall how many resources or workers a particular technology re-
38
The method used here to compute energy consumption is based on a procedure similar to that
I used to compute GDP: Malanima, ‘The long decline of a leading economy’.
39
40
Crafts, ‘Steam as a general purpose technology. A growth accounting perspective’.
Two technical presentations of the methods of social savings are Fogel, ‘Notes on the social saving controversy’; Crafts, ‘Social savings as a measure of the contribution of a new technology to economic growth’.
21

leased. Our purpose is to present the release of resources and labour following the introduction of new energy carriers.
Although in this case, attention is immediately drawn to the introduction of coal as the great novelty of the period, from the viewpoint of social savings, we have to mention the remarkable progress made in the field of traditional sources both in England and Italy. In England, in the long period between 1300 and 1800, cereal yields per hectare at least doubled; for some kinds of cereals they more than doubled.
41
The increase was even higher if we consider the period from when the main increase occurred, at the beginning of the seventeenth century, up to the end the period in question. The widespread use of horse power certainly contributed to progress in land productivity.
42
Social saving can be measured, in this case, by the more than doubling of arable soil. However, this advance did not result (or resulted only temporarily) in an increase in per capita availability of energy from the traditional carriers. As we said before, when the availability of traditional sources rises, since there is no alternative usage of the agricultural production but to feed the population, the rise in the availability of energy is neutralised by the increase in population. We saw, furthermore, that traditional energy sources per capita, equalised to agricultural production, diminished in the long term between 1560 and 1830. During this period the growth in population not only neutralised the yield rise, but more than neutralised it.
In the case of Italy yields of the traditional cereals per hectare did not increase until the last decades of the nineteenth century.
43
Nevertheless, thanks to the introduction of a new crop, maize, per hectare production in the countryside rose from the middle of the seventeenth century onwards. The cultivation of maize became increasingly common, especially in the centre and north - the area of our research: in Piedmont,
Lombardy, Veneto, Emilia-Romagna.
44
Per hectare production of calories obtainable from maize was double that of wheat or other minor crops. In the case of CN Italy, however, the increase in the availability of energy from traditional sources did not and could not, imply a rise in energy consumption per head. The land augmenting innovation translated itself into an increase in population although much more modest in comparison with England. In CN Italy the population doubled from 1700 until 1870-80, while in
England & Wales it increased four-fold in the same period.
As regards the social saving deriving from the introduction of coal, it was greater than that occurring in arables. Coal is, at the same time, both land and labour augmenting. It is land augmenting because it replaces firewood and so increases the extent of forests or, better, saves hectares of the country which exploits the new source. It is labour augmenting since the share used as source of mechanical power saves labour because it increases working capacity and so multiplies the number of workers.
In the case of the hectares saved by the use of coal, some calculation has already been proposed in the past. I have only refined and widened the approach including the entire 1560-1913 period. I have assumed productivity of forest to equal fire-
41
See the comparison between the yields in 1300 and 1800 in Wrigley, ‘The transition to an advanced organic economy’, p. 443; and data by Clark, ‘Yields per acre in English agriculture, 1250-
1860’.
42 Wrigley, ‘The transition to an advanced organic economy’, p. 460.
43
Porisini, ‘Produttività e agricoltura: i rendimenti del frumento in Italia dal 1815 al 1822’.
44
Malanima, L’economia italiana, pp. 125-29. Especially on the nineteenth century, Cazzola,
Storia della campagne padane dall’Ottocento a oggi.
22

wood of 3 cubic metres per hectare.
45
Since 1 cubic metre is about 625 kgs of dry wood, it corresponds to 5,625,000 kcal (3,000 kcal per kg) or 0.5625 toe.
46
As to the calculation of the workers replaced by the mechanical use of coal, we can follow two different paths. The first consists in the ratio between the power (in HP) of the engines used to convert heat into mechanical work and the average power of a worker (ordinarily 0.05-0.10 HP). However, the available estimates of power exploited refer to that of fixed engines, that is, the greater share of the machines used to convert energy.
47
A second and preferable possibility consists in the use of our series of useful mechanical energy. It can be divided by the useful energy engendered by the conversion through the body of a worker. Assuming a daily consumption as food of 3,000 kcal and an efficiency of 15 percent in the conversion of the calories of food into mechanical work, energy services correspond to 450 kcal per day or 164,250 kcal per year. We then divide the mechanical use of energy services from coal by 450.
Table 6.
Hectares of land (millions) and workers (millions) saved by the use of coal 1560-1900
(and rates of growth of both land and labour saved).
1560
1600
1650
1700
1750
1800
1850
1900
Land ha
(millions)
0.268
0.539
1.541
3.388
5.410
15.707
61.708
197.811
Labour
Workers
(millions)
0.013
1.138
24.910
290.490
Land growth (%)
1.75
2.10
1.58
0.94
2.13
2.74
2.33
Labour growth (%)
8.9
6.2
4.9
Sources : see text.
The results again show the existence of two phases in the history of coal in England (Table 6). The first phase lasted from the end of the sixteenth century until about
1830. In this phase coal was a land augmenting resource. In 1800 its social saving corresponded to the same extent of the entire area of the country, 15 million hectares. A century later it saved 13-14 times the extent of the country. The mechanical use of coal developed much later in a second phase starting about 1830. In 1800 its social saving corresponded to more than 1 million workers. Its importance grew from 1830 onward.
In 1900 it corresponded to almost 300 million workers. In about 1900 the energy of coal
45
The topic has been analysed by Warde, Energy consumption in England and Wales 1560-2000 , pp. 34 ff.; Warde, ‘Fear of wood shortage and the reality of the woodland in Europe’; Warde,
‘Woodland fuel. Demand and supply’. On the productivity of forests see also Collins, ‘The woodfuel economy of eighteenth century England’.
46
47
A toe (ton of oil equivalent) is equal to 10 million kcal.
Kanefsky, The diffusion of power technology in British industry, pp. 332 ff. On the theme the article by Nuvolari, Verspagen, Von Tunzelmann is important, ‘The early diffusion of the steam engine in Britain, 1700–1800: a reappraisal’.
23

saved 200 million hectares and 300 million workers. A calculation of the costs involved using the alternative, old technologies would be, in this case, quite unrealistic since those technologies would have been unable to obtain such results; there would not have been such an augmentation of land and labour.
The case of England appears much more remarkable when we compare its performance to that of Italy. Until the end of the nineteenth century, Italy experienced the extensive progress of the old economies when the total production of energy sources increases. Between 1700 and 1870 her population doubled because her total availability of energy doubled. Thermal energy continued to be provided by firewood, whose price was rising under the impact of the rising population. As to the mechanical capacity, linked to the introduction of coal from abroad, in 1840 its power in HP was 62 times lower than that of Great Britain. In 1900-10 great progress had been achieved. At that time the power of her fixed engines was about one sixth that of Great Britain.
48
400
350
300
250
200
250
200
150
150
100
100
50
0 land labour
50
0
Figure 12 . Land (millions of hectares) and workers (millions) saved by the use of coal 1560-1913.
Sources : see text.
7. Conclusion
Italy represents the norm that is the ordinary path of the traditional economies.
When energy availability from the traditional sources, in consequence of some innovation or climatic change, increases the volume of exploitable energy, population rises and extensive growth takes place. When energy availability diminishes, population diminishes. Although energy is only one variable involved in the process of growth, it represents an important conditioning variable. The availability of mechanical energy in particular, which is the share of energy employed for building and transport, represents a limiting factor. Growth can take place in the institutions, culture, political systems and useful knowledge. Without the removal of this limiting factor, intensive growth cannot occur; extensive growth is the only possibility.
48
Data on the power exploited in Italy are from Malanima, Le energie degli italiani. Due secoli di storia.
24

England represents the exception . Although the availability per capita of her traditional sources of energy slowly diminished throughout a long period of our history, that is from the late sixteenth century until the first decades of the nineteenth century, the availability of the modern fossil source, coal, represented an important compensation. Its development, since the end of the sixteenth century can be broken down into two phases or periods. The thermal phase when coal was used exclusively or mainly for thermal needs, which lasted until about 1830. In this phase coal was land augmenting.
The second was the mechanical phase, starting in about 1830. Coal was labour augmenting and thus a basis for intensive growth in this second phase. Only in this second phase did a real removal of the limiting factor of all previous economies actually occur.
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25

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1560
1561
1562
1563
1564
1565
1566
1567
Per capita energy consumption in England & Wales and central and northern Italy (Gigajoules) 1560-1913.
traditional modern sources sources
Total per capita
% modern
15.2
14.6
2.0
2.0
17.1
16.6
11.5
12.1
15.4
14.0
15.6
16.0
14.8
15.9
2.0
2.0
2.1
2.1
2.1
2.1
17.4
16.0
17.7
18.1
16.9
18.0
11.6
12.7
11.6
11.5
12.4
11.7
traditional modern Total % sources sources per capita modern
18.1
18.1
18.1
18.1
16.9
18.9
17.9
18.1
18.4
19.6
16.9
18.9
17.9
18.1
18.4
19.6
27

14.8
14.6
14.0
13.3
12.9
12.6
13.6
13.8
15.2
14.4
13.1
14.8
15.5
14.3
14.3
14.7
15.1
14.8
15.0
15.3
15.2
15.3
15.4
15.0
15.6
15.8
16.7
16.3
15.7
14.4
15.3
15.4
12.9
13.4
13.5
13.4
13.0
13.0
13.5
13.4
13.7
14.1
13.9
15.1
14.3
14.2
13.8
13.8
12.9
12.9
13.7
14.0
14.1
1592
1593
1594
1595
1596
1597
1598
1599
1584
1585
1586
1587
1588
1589
1590
1591
1576
1577
1578
1579
1580
1581
1582
1583
1568
1569
1570
1571
1572
1573
1574
1575
1608
1609
1610
1611
1612
1613
1614
1615
1600
1601
1602
1603
1604
1605
1606
1607
1616
1617
1618
1619
1620
17.4
17.3
16.7
16.1
15.7
15.4
16.5
16.7
17.6
16.8
15.6
17.3
18.1
16.9
16.9
17.3
17.4
17.1
17.3
17.6
17.5
17.7
17.8
17.4
17.7
18.0
18.8
18.4
17.9
16.7
17.6
17.7
16.3
16.9
17.2
17.1
16.8
16.9
17.5
17.5
16.6
17.1
17.0
18.2
17.5
17.4
17.1
17.2
17.1
17.3
18.1
18.6
18.7
2.8
2.8
2.9
2.9
2.7
2.7
2.7
2.7
2.5
2.6
2.6
2.6
2.4
2.4
2.5
2.5
2.4
2.4
2.4
2.4
2.3
2.3
2.3
2.3
2.2
2.2
2.3
2.3
2.1
2.1
2.2
2.2
3.8
3.9
4.0
4.1
3.5
3.5
3.6
3.7
4.2
4.3
4.4
4.5
4.6
3.2
3.3
3.3
3.4
2.9
3.0
3.1
3.1
15.2
15.6
16.3
17.1
17.7
18.3
17.5
17.5
13.7
14.5
15.8
14.4
14.0
15.1
15.2
15.1
13.0
13.5
13.3
13.3
13.5
13.4
13.4
13.8
11.9
11.9
11.5
11.8
12.3
13.4
12.9
12.8
21.2
20.9
21.1
21.7
22.5
23.1
23.0
23.4
17.5
17.5
18.0
17.2
18.4
18.8
19.5
19.7
24.6
25.1
24.5
24.4
24.5
16.9
17.6
17.4
17.1
16.3
16.6
17.1
17.9
18.1
17.9
17.9
18.1
18.1
17.9
17.1
16.6
18.9
18.6
18.1
17.4
17.6
18.1
18.1
18.4
18.6
17.4
18.4
18.1
18.1
18.9
18.9
18.1
17.1
17.9
18.4
18.1
17.9
17.9
18.1
17.6
17.4
16.6
16.6
17.4
16.9
17.1
16.3
16.6
18.4
18.1
17.4
17.6
18.1
16.9
17.6
17.4
17.1
16.3
16.6
17.1
17.9
18.1
17.9
17.9
18.1
18.1
17.9
17.1
16.6
18.9
18.6
18.1
17.4
17.6
18.1
18.1
18.4
18.6
17.4
18.4
18.1
18.1
18.9
18.9
18.1
17.1
17.9
18.4
18.1
17.9
17.9
18.1
17.6
17.4
16.6
16.6
17.4
16.9
17.1
16.3
16.6
18.4
18.1
17.4
17.6
18.1
28

1645
1646
1647
1648
1649
1650
1651
1652
1637
1638
1639
1640
1641
1642
1643
1644
1629
1630
1631
1632
1633
1634
1635
1636
1621
1622
1623
1624
1625
1626
1627
1628
1661
1662
1663
1664
1665
1666
1667
1668
1653
1654
1655
1656
1657
1658
1659
1660
1669
1670
1671
1672
1673
20.4
19.2
19.0
18.4
18.6
18.7
19.8
21.0
18.6
18.7
19.3
19.6
19.7
20.0
20.1
20.3
18.8
18.2
18.9
18.9
19.2
19.1
18.7
18.8
18.0
17.8
18.4
18.2
18.3
18.9
19.6
19.3
20.6
21.5
21.7
22.1
22.8
23.6
23.5
23.1
21.1
22.0
21.6
21.1
20.4
20.3
20.4
21.1
23.7
23.7
24.1
24.4
23.6
6.4
6.5
6.6
6.7
6.1
6.1
6.2
6.3
5.8
5.8
5.9
6.0
5.5
5.6
5.6
5.7
5.5
5.5
5.5
5.5
5.3
5.3
5.4
5.4
5.2
5.3
5.3
5.3
4.7
4.8
4.9
5.1
8.7
9.0
9.2
9.4
8.0
8.2
8.3
8.5
9.6
9.8
10.1
10.4
10.5
7.2
7.4
7.6
7.8
6.8
6.9
7.0
7.1
14.4
13.1
12.7
12.1
12.2
12.2
13.2
14.3
13.1
13.1
13.7
13.9
13.9
14.1
14.2
14.3
13.5
12.8
13.6
13.5
13.7
13.6
13.3
13.3
13.3
13.0
13.5
13.1
13.1
13.6
14.3
13.9
12.7
13.3
13.3
13.6
14.1
14.6
14.3
13.7
14.3
15.1
14.6
14.0
13.2
12.8
12.8
13.2
14.1
13.8
14.0
14.1
13.0
29.8
32.0
32.8
34.4
34.4
34.7
33.4
32.0
29.6
29.8
29.1
29.1
29.3
29.2
29.4
29.7
28.3
29.4
28.3
28.6
28.5
28.8
29.2
29.2
26.0
26.8
26.6
27.9
28.5
28.0
27.1
27.7
38.6
37.9
38.5
38.5
38.2
38.0
39.1
40.6
32.3
31.4
32.4
33.6
35.2
36.6
37.5
37.1
40.5
41.5
41.9
42.4
44.7
20.6
20.9
19.9
18.9
18.6
18.4
20.4
20.4
19.9
20.6
20.6
21.1
21.6
21.1
19.9
19.9
17.4
18.4
19.4
20.4
20.4
20.9
18.6
19.1
18.9
18.6
18.6
18.6
19.4
18.9
18.4
17.6
20.6
20.9
20.9
20.6
20.9
21.6
21.6
21.4
20.1
20.4
20.6
19.9
20.1
19.9
19.9
20.1
20.6
20.4
20.6
20.9
20.9
20.6
20.9
19.9
18.9
18.6
18.4
20.4
20.4
19.9
20.6
20.6
21.1
21.6
21.1
19.9
19.9
17.4
18.4
19.4
20.4
20.4
20.9
18.6
19.1
18.9
18.6
18.6
18.6
19.4
18.9
18.4
17.6
20.6
20.9
20.9
20.6
20.9
21.6
21.6
21.4
20.1
20.4
20.6
19.9
20.1
19.9
19.9
20.1
20.6
20.4
20.6
20.9
20.9
29

1698
1699
1700
1701
1702
1703
1704
1705
1690
1691
1692
1693
1694
1695
1696
1697
1682
1683
1684
1685
1686
1687
1688
1689
1674
1675
1676
1677
1678
1679
1680
1681
1714
1715
1716
1717
1718
1719
1720
1721
1706
1707
1708
1709
1710
1711
1712
1713
1722
1723
1724
1725
1726
27.7
28.2
29.4
30.1
30.1
29.9
30.8
31.4
28.6
28.2
27.5
26.8
28.3
28.0
28.0
27.7
26.5
26.3
26.0
27.1
27.6
28.2
28.0
28.2
23.6
24.9
25.5
24.7
24.6
25.7
25.9
26.3
31.5
30.8
31.2
31.6
32.4
31.9
31.9
32.7
31.1
31.1
29.9
28.9
29.7
30.3
31.3
30.4
32.8
32.9
32.0
32.3
32.9
14.5
14.6
14.8
14.9
15.0
15.1
15.2
15.5
13.7
13.8
13.9
14.1
14.2
14.3
14.4
14.5
12.7
12.9
13.0
13.2
13.3
13.4
13.5
13.6
10.7
10.9
11.2
11.4
11.5
11.9
12.2
12.5
16.2
16.4
16.5
16.6
16.6
16.6
16.9
17.1
15.4
15.5
15.6
15.6
15.8
16.0
16.5
16.2
17.3
17.4
17.2
17.6
17.6
13.3
13.6
14.5
15.2
15.1
14.8
15.6
15.8
14.9
14.3
13.6
12.7
14.1
13.7
13.6
13.2
13.8
13.4
13.1
14.0
14.3
14.8
14.5
14.6
12.9
13.9
14.3
13.3
13.0
13.8
13.7
13.8
15.3
14.4
14.7
15.0
15.8
15.2
15.1
15.7
15.7
15.6
14.3
13.3
13.9
14.3
14.8
14.2
15.5
15.5
14.8
14.7
15.3
52.2
51.8
50.5
49.5
50.0
50.6
49.3
49.5
48.0
49.1
50.7
52.5
50.2
51.1
51.5
52.4
47.8
49.0
49.8
48.5
48.2
47.6
48.1
48.1
45.5
43.9
44.0
46.2
47.0
46.2
47.2
47.5
51.5
53.3
52.8
52.6
51.3
52.2
52.8
52.2
49.6
49.8
52.2
54.1
53.3
52.8
52.7
53.3
52.7
52.8
53.7
54.6
53.5
18.6
18.9
19.4
19.1
19.1
19.4
19.4
19.6
19.1
19.1
18.9
18.9
18.1
17.9
17.9
18.1
20.4
20.6
19.9
19.1
19.6
20.6
20.4
20.4
20.9
19.6
19.9
19.1
19.1
19.6
19.6
20.1
20.6
20.1
20.1
20.4
20.1
20.6
21.9
21.4
19.4
19.1
19.1
18.1
19.1
20.1
20.4
20.4
21.4
22.1
22.6
21.6
21.1
18.6
18.9
19.4
19.1
19.1
19.4
19.4
19.6
19.1
19.1
18.9
18.9
18.1
17.9
17.9
18.1
20.4
20.6
19.9
19.1
19.6
20.6
20.4
20.4
20.9
19.6
19.9
19.1
19.1
19.6
19.6
20.1
20.6
20.1
20.1
20.4
20.1
20.6
21.9
21.4
19.4
19.1
19.1
18.1
19.1
20.1
20.4
20.4
21.4
22.1
22.6
21.6
21.1
30

1751
1752
1753
1754
1755
1756
1757
1758
1743
1744
1745
1746
1747
1748
1749
1750
1735
1736
1737
1738
1739
1740
1741
1742
1727
1728
1729
1730
1731
1732
1733
1734
1767
1768
1769
1770
1771
1772
1773
1774
1759
1760
1761
1762
1763
1764
1765
1766
1775
1776
1777
1778
1779
35.8
36.2
36.3
37.5
37.3
36.3
37.0
38.3
37.0
37.3
36.4
36.3
36.7
36.6
36.6
36.4
34.6
35.1
35.3
35.4
34.7
33.6
35.3
36.4
32.0
32.4
33.6
34.6
35.3
35.3
35.4
34.8
39.7
41.3
42.4
42.5
42.0
42.0
43.0
43.2
39.2
39.7
40.1
40.3
40.0
40.5
40.5
39.2
43.7
43.7
43.9
45.2
45.7
20.8
21.3
21.5
22.4
22.4
22.7
23.2
23.7
20.5
20.7
20.7
20.7
20.9
21.0
21.0
20.8
19.3
19.3
19.5
19.6
19.6
19.6
19.9
20.4
17.6
18.1
18.5
19.1
19.2
19.2
19.3
19.3
26.5
27.4
28.0
28.6
28.7
29.1
29.7
30.0
24.1
24.5
24.7
25.2
25.7
26.1
26.1
25.8
29.5
29.7
30.1
30.6
31.1
15.0
14.9
14.8
15.2
14.9
13.6
13.8
14.6
16.5
16.6
15.8
15.6
15.7
15.5
15.5
15.6
15.3
15.7
15.8
15.8
15.2
14.0
15.3
16.0
14.4
14.2
15.1
15.5
16.1
16.1
16.1
15.4
13.3
13.9
14.5
13.9
13.3
12.9
13.3
13.2
15.1
15.1
15.3
15.1
14.3
14.4
14.4
13.4
14.2
14.0
13.8
14.6
14.6
58.2
58.8
59.3
59.6
60.0
62.5
62.7
61.8
55.4
55.4
56.7
57.0
57.1
57.6
57.5
57.1
55.8
55.2
55.1
55.4
56.3
58.3
56.5
56.0
55.0
56.0
55.1
55.2
54.3
54.4
54.6
55.6
66.6
66.4
65.9
67.3
68.3
69.4
69.1
69.4
61.5
61.9
61.7
62.5
64.3
64.5
64.4
65.8
67.5
68.0
68.6
67.8
68.1
19.1
19.6
20.6
20.6
20.1
19.9
19.6
19.9
19.9
19.9
19.6
19.1
18.6
18.9
19.4
19.1
19.1
19.6
20.1
20.4
20.4
19.9
19.6
19.9
21.6
21.6
21.9
21.4
20.6
20.9
19.6
18.9
18.9
19.1
19.4
18.6
18.4
17.9
17.9
17.6
19.6
20.1
20.4
20.4
20.1
19.6
19.4
18.6
17.4
18.1
17.6
17.4
18.1
19.1
19.6
20.6
20.6
20.1
19.9
19.6
19.9
19.9
19.9
19.6
19.1
18.6
18.9
19.4
19.1
19.1
19.6
20.1
20.4
20.4
19.9
19.6
19.9
21.6
21.6
21.9
21.4
20.6
20.9
19.6
18.9
18.9
19.1
19.4
18.6
18.4
17.9
17.9
17.6
19.6
20.1
20.4
20.4
20.1
19.6
19.4
18.6
17.4
18.1
17.6
17.4
18.1
31

1822
1823
1824
1825
1826
1827
1828
1829
1804
1805
1806
1807
1808
1809
1810
1811
1796
1797
1798
1799
1800
1801
1802
1803
1812
1813
1814
1815
1816
1817
1818
1819
1788
1789
1790
1791
1792
1793
1794
1795
1780
1781
1782
1783
1784
1785
1786
1787
1820
1821
1830
1831
66.6
66.2
65.6
65.2
65.9
66.1
66.6
68.0
54.9
55.9
56.4
57.5
57.0
57.5
58.3
58.9
50.8
51.1
51.9
50.5
50.7
53.9
54.8
55.9
59.2
59.7
60.3
60.7
61.3
61.9
62.4
63.3
48.2
48.3
48.7
49.4
49.3
49.4
49.7
49.1
45.5
46.1
46.6
46.4
47.5
47.6
48.1
48.3
64.0
65.3
68.4
68.5
50.8
51.2
51.4
51.6
51.9
52.2
52.5
54.1
42.8
43.3
43.8
44.7
45.2
45.9
46.5
47.2
37.6
38.2
38.6
38.9
40.2
42.0
41.5
42.2
47.8
48.3
48.6
48.5
48.8
49.2
49.6
50.1
34.5
35.0
35.2
35.5
35.7
36.0
36.7
37.4
31.6
32.3
32.9
32.8
33.5
33.5
34.0
34.6
50.4
50.6
54.1
54.3
15.8
15.1
14.2
13.6
14.0
13.9
14.1
13.9
12.1
12.6
12.6
12.8
11.9
11.6
11.8
11.7
13.2
12.9
13.3
11.5
10.5
11.9
13.3
13.7
11.4
11.4
11.7
12.2
12.5
12.7
12.9
13.2
13.8
13.3
13.4
13.8
13.6
13.4
13.1
11.7
13.9
13.9
13.7
13.6
14.0
14.1
14.1
13.7
13.6
14.6
14.2
14.1
76.3
77.3
78.3
79.1
78.7
78.9
78.8
79.6
77.9
77.5
77.7
77.7
79.2
79.9
79.8
80.1
74.1
74.8
74.4
77.2
79.3
78.0
75.7
75.4
80.7
80.9
80.6
79.9
79.6
79.5
79.4
79.1
71.5
72.4
72.4
71.9
72.4
72.8
73.7
76.1
69.5
70.0
70.6
70.7
70.6
70.3
70.7
71.7
78.7
77.6
79.2
79.3
17.9
18.2
18.7
18.4
18.9
18.7
18.4
18.2
18.2
17.7
18.2
17.7
18.7
18.9
17.4
16.9
17.4
17.6
18.1
17.4
16.6
16.4
16.9
17.4
17.1
17.7
17.9
17.1
16.9
16.9
18.2
18.2
18.1
17.9
17.1
17.4
17.1
16.6
16.9
17.4
18.6
18.1
17.9
17.9
17.6
17.9
18.1
17.6
18.2
17.9
18.2
18.7
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
17.9
18.2
18.7
18.4
18.9
18.7
18.4
18.2
18.2
17.7
18.2
17.7
18.7
18.9
17.4
16.9
17.4
17.6
18.1
17.4
16.6
16.4
16.9
17.4
17.1
17.7
17.9
17.1
16.9
16.9
18.2
18.2
18.1
17.9
17.1
17.4
17.1
16.6
16.9
17.4
18.6
18.1
17.9
17.9
17.6
17.9
18.1
17.6
18.2
17.9
18.2
18.7
32

1867
1868
1869
1870
1871
1872
1873
1859
1860
1861
1862
1863
1864
1865
1866
1874
1875
1876
1877
1878
1879
1880
1881
1851
1852
1853
1854
1855
1856
1857
1858
1843
1844
1845
1846
1847
1848
1849
1850
1832
1833
1834
1835
1836
1837
1838
1839
1840
1841
1842
120.9
117.4
121.3
122.3
127.6
132.2
137.1
107.8
109.7
111.2
112.5
114.3
112.7
117.5
119.3
131.8
136.6
134.1
133.5
130.1
129.0
138.5
142.2
94.8
97.1
99.2
100.9
102.1
103.0
104.0
106.3
79.2
81.9
83.3
85.8
88.7
90.0
92.6
94.5
68.6
68.7
69.9
70.9
71.6
72.4
73.3
74.4
75.5
76.7
77.8
110.9
107.4
111.4
112.4
117.7
122.3
127.1
97.5
99.4
100.9
102.2
104.1
102.6
107.4
109.3
121.8
126.7
124.1
123.4
120.1
118.9
128.4
133.0
84.2
86.5
88.6
90.3
91.6
92.6
93.6
95.9
66.0
68.8
70.2
72.8
75.8
77.1
79.8
81.8
54.5
54.8
56.1
57.1
58.0
59.0
59.9
61.1
62.2
63.2
64.4
91.7
91.5
91.8
91.9
92.2
92.5
92.7
90.4
90.6
90.8
90.9
91.1
91.0
91.4
91.6
92.4
92.7
92.5
92.5
92.3
92.2
92.7
93.5
88.8
89.1
89.4
89.6
89.7
89.9
90.0
90.2
83.3
84.0
84.3
84.8
85.4
85.7
86.2
86.5
79.5
79.7
80.2
80.6
81.0
81.4
81.7
82.0
82.3
82.4
82.8
10.0
10.0
9.9
9.9
9.9
9.9
10.0
10.3
10.3
10.3
10.2
10.2
10.1
10.1
10.1
10.0
10.0
10.0
10.1
10.0
10.1
10.0
9.2
10.6
10.6
10.6
10.5
10.5
10.4
10.4
10.4
13.2
13.1
13.1
13.0
13.0
12.9
12.8
12.8
14.1
13.9
13.8
13.7
13.6
13.5
13.4
13.4
13.3
13.5
13.4
16.3
16.4
16.6
16.8
16.4
16.4
16.4
18.4
18.4
18.0
17.8
17.8
17.8
17.6
17.3
16.8
17.1
17.6
17.0
16.9
17.5
17.8
17.9
17.8
17.6
17.1
16.2
16.6
16.7
18.1
18.8
17.9
18.0
18.2
18.0
17.5
18.0
18.0
17.8
18.9
18.9
19.2
19.7
18.2
17.7
17.9
17.9
18.4
18.7
18.9
1.2
1.2
1.2
1.2
1.0
1.2
1.1
1.2
1.2
1.2
1.2
1.0
1.3
1.4
1.2
1.6
1.8
2.0
2.3
1.3
1.3
1.7
1.5
0.4
0.6
0.7
0.9
0.1
0.2
0.2
0.3
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.0
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
15.1
15.2
15.4
15.6
15.4
15.2
15.3
17.4
17.1
16.7
16.6
16.6
16.6
16.4
16.1
15.5
15.8
15.9
15.5
15.3
15.7
15.8
15.6
17.7
17.4
16.9
15.9
16.2
16.1
17.4
17.9
17.9
17.9
18.1
17.9
17.4
17.9
17.9
17.7
18.9
18.9
19.2
19.7
18.2
17.7
17.9
17.9
18.4
18.7
18.9
7.3
7.4
7.2
7.3
6.2
7.4
7.0
6.8
6.6
6.7
6.7
5.7
7.0
7.5
6.7
7.6
7.5
9.6
9.1
9.3
10.3
11.3
13.0
2.6
3.4
3.9
4.6
0.8
1.1
1.4
2.0
0.5
0.5
0.6
0.6
0.2
0.3
0.3
0.4
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.1
0.1
0.2
0.2
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
33

1901
1902
1903
1904
1905
1906
1907
1908
1893
1894
1895
1896
1897
1898
1899
1900
1882
1883
1884
1885
1886
1887
1888
1889
1890
1891
1892
1909
1910
1911
1912
1913
10.8
10.9
10.9
11.0
11.0
11.0
11.1
11.3
11.4
11.3
11.4
11.6
12.0
10.8
10.7
10.8
10.9
10.8
11.0
10.7
10.7
9.2
9.3
9.1
9.3
9.3
9.3
9.4
9.5
9.5
10.6
10.6
150.5
154.6
154.3
153.6
154.1
157.8
162.9
157.8
128.7
144.4
144.2
146.5
148.4
147.3
155.0
155.1
157.7
157.3
159.7
151.2
146.9
141.9
145.9
140.9
138.0
135.4
137.3
141.0
144.3
146.0
148.5
144.0
139.7
143.7
143.4
142.6
143.1
146.8
151.8
146.5
118.0
133.7
133.4
135.6
137.6
136.3
144.3
144.5
146.3
146.1
148.4
139.6
135.0
132.7
136.6
131.7
128.7
126.1
128.0
131.6
134.8
136.5
137.8
133.4
92.9
92.9
92.9
92.8
92.9
93.0
93.2
92.8
92.8
92.8
92.9
92.3
91.9
91.6
92.6
92.5
92.6
92.7
92.5
93.1
93.1
93.5
93.6
93.5
93.3
93.2
93.2
93.3
93.4
93.5
92.8
92.6
19.0
19.2
19.0
19.1
19.4
20.6
21.1
21.3
22.3
22.5
22.6
23.1
23.9
18.5
19.4
19.0
18.6
18.6
18.7
19.0
18.9
18.0
18.3
18.6
18.9
18.8
19.5
19.6
19.5
19.6
18.8
18.9
6.2
7.4
8.0
8.1
4.8
5.3
5.4
5.7
8.9
8.9
9.1
9.5
10.2
4.4
4.5
4.9
5.0
3.9
4.9
4.5
4.2
2.5
2.7
2.9
4.3
4.6
4.1
4.1
3.3
3.3
3.9
4.2
14.2
13.9
13.6
13.4
13.2
13.2
13.1
13.2
13.4
13.6
13.5
13.6
13.7
14.6
14.5
14.5
14.4
14.2
14.2
14.1
13.9
15.5
15.6
15.7
15.6
15.5
15.6
15.4
15.2
15.0
14.7
14.8
25.5
27.8
28.5
30.0
31.9
35.7
37.7
38.1
39.7
39.5
40.4
41.3
42.8
21.3
25.1
23.5
22.5
23.4
23.9
25.7
26.3
13.9
14.6
15.8
17.5
17.3
20.1
21.3
22.0
23.7
22.0
21.7
34