MSc Dissertation Supervision 2014/2015 - Research interests and topics Name Akerlof, Robert Almunia, Miguel Research Interests Behavioural economics Contract theory/Organizational Economics Cultural and Social Norms Priority for MSFE students Public Economics Development Economics Suggested Topics Topic Descriptions Firm size dynamics during the Great Recession Using firm-level financial statements from the Amadeus database, study how the recession has affected firm size (measured by turnover, number of employees, or assets) in different European countries. How has the recession affected firm growth, firm creation and firm closures? What has been the impact on profitability and other standard metrics? Note: Amadeus is commercialized by Bureau van Dijk and is available through the Warwick library. Evaluation of public policies using the “synthetic control' method proposed by This method is very intuitive and there is a Stata command to implement it. The method is Abadie, Diamond and Hainmuller (see full reference opposite). ideally suited to study the impact of reforms taking. Reference: Alberto ABADIE, Alexis DIAMOND, and Jens HAINMUELLER (2010): “Synthetic Control Methods for Comparative Case Studies: Estimating the Effect of California’s Tobacco Control Program”, Journal of the American Statistical Association, 105(490), 493-505. Issues of international taxation: tax competition across countries, tax harmonisation within the EU, financial taxes (eg, Tobin tax). Some references: Michael Devereux (2012): “Issues in the design of taxes on corporate profit”, National Tax Journal, 65 (3) pp. 709-730. Thomas Plümper, Vera Troeger and Hannes Winner (2009): “Why is There No Race to the Bottom in Capital Taxation? Tax Competition between Countries of Unequal Size, Different Levels of Budget Rigidities and Heterogeneous Fairness Norms”, International Studies Quarterly, 53(3), 761-786. Aquaro, Michele Priority for MSFE students Panel data econometrics (static and dynamic linear models, cross-sectional dependence, heterogeneous panels). Robust Statistics Arulampalam, Wiji Applied Econometrics Labour economics Beker, Pablo Theoretical explanations for the dynamics of asset prices Do markets favour (more) rationality? Explanations for momentum and reversals in asset returns Explanations for the dynamics of asset trading Boero, Gianna Evolution of rationality Evolution of technologies Production under incomplete markets Priority for MSFE students Brollo, Fernanda Political economics Public finance Development economics Buisseret, Peter Political economy Applied game theory Do markets favour more efficient firms? The role of cash constraints in procurement The role of cash constraints in patent races. Cave, Jonathan Economic Theory Industrial Economics Financial economics Game theory (esp. on networks) and complexity Regulation (consumer protection and antitrust) and standardisation ICT-related issues (e.g. cloud computing, net neutrality, telecom regulation, eCommerce, privacy) Chen, Natalie International trade International macroeconomics. Choy, James Priority for MSFE students Development Economics Social and Political Institutions International Relations Coutto, Tatiana Institutional Analysis EU Politics and Policy-making Brazilian Foreign Policy Qualitative Methods Crawford, Claire (joint topics Economics of Education, Labour Economics with Jeremy Smith and Robin Naylor) New evidence on young people's behaviour, attitudes and outcomes from LSYPE cohort data The project will look at the first wave from the new LSYPE survey of young people starting at age 14, which will include information on their attitudes and behaviours at age 14 (e.g. attitudes to education and work, locus of control, experiences of bullying, smoking, drinking) as well as self-reported health outcomes and some information about schools and GCSE choices, plus detailed information on family background and prior attainment (in primary school). Comparison could also be made to the previous LSYPE cohort (about 10 years ago) in which many of the same questions were asked. Why do graduates from private school students outperform their state school This project would explore which types of private schools appear to confer the largest peers in the labour market? benefits, updating Naylor, Smith and McKnight (2002). The student would need to collect information on private school characteristics over the last 10-15 years. We would also need to secure access to Destination of Leavers from Higher Education (DLHE) data (for which a fee needs to be paid) (unless they could run it on internal Warwick data only, which may be suitable and is likely to be easily accessible). Is there a grammar school premium in the labour market? Do equivalently qualified state school pupils out-perform pupils from all private schools? This project would extend Crawford and Vignoles (2014) to examine whether graduates who previously attended grammar schools earn more, on average, than their nonselective state school counterparts. Again, the student would ideally need to access DLHE data (or, if not, internal Warwick data). Previous research has found that, conditional on attainment, state school pupils go on to outperform their private school counterparts once at university (Smith and Naylor, 2001a,b; Crawford, 2014). This project would investigate whether the same is true of students from all private schools. It would require similar data on the characteristics of private schools as project 1) – so the students could join forces to collect the data – and would also necessitate access to linked schools and universities administrative data (the NPD-HESA data). Again, this may be problematic in terms of access, but internal Warwick data could be a viable alternative. (This project could also be split into two, with one looking at drop-out/degree completion and the other at degree class.) How effective are private secondary schools? The government regularly publishes information on the “value-added” of state schools: this is an indicator of how much progress pupils make between various education stages. They do not publish information on the value-added of private secondary schools, however, as a substantial minority of pupils in private secondary schools do not sit the tests taken at the end of primary school which are used as the baseline measure of attainment in these value-added calculations. This project would use data on the 60% of private secondary school pupils for which we do observe this information to estimate the value-added by private secondary schools between ages 11 and 16, and assess how this compares to the value-added by state schools. This would require access to NPD data (which should be relatively straightforward, in principle.) An extension of this project could consider whether value-added differs by private-school characteristics (using similar data to that collected for projects 1 and 3). Is university performance differentially affected by KS4 and KS5 school characteristics? Previous research has variously used information on the school in which pupils sit their GCSEs and the school in which they sit their A-levels when considering the link between school characteristics and university participation and outcomes, sometimes with differing results (e.g. the results by school performance in Crawford (2014) and HEFCE (2014)). This project would systematically explore the extent to which this choice matters. Again, access to NPD-HESA data would be ideal; but the project could possibly be done using internal Warwick data if necessary (assuming we observe both KS4 and KS5 school in our data; we would need to check this). (Again, this project could be split into two if required, with one looking at drop-out/degree completion and the other at degree class.) Does the benefit of attending a private school differ across the earnings distribution? This project would extend Crawford and Vignoles (2014) by using quantile regression analysis to explore whether the effect of attending a private school varies when comparing individuals at different parts of the earnings distribution. The student would ideally need access to DLHE data, but the project could also potentially be carried out using internal Warwick data. How much does missing data matter for estimates of the link between school In some of the datasets used for previous research on this topic (e.g. the NPD), there is characteristics and university outcomes? only very limited information available on the characteristics of private school students. In order to be able to control for such factors in regression analysis, one therefore needs to “fill in” this missing data in some way. Many previous papers have used missing dummies to do so, but there is growing evidence that this can lead to bias (e.g. Allison, 2009). This project would investigate the extent to which the results and conclusions of the research would vary if alternative methods of dealing with this missing data were used. This project would require access to NPD data (and preferably NPD-HESA data). (Again, this project could be split if required, with students looking variously at HE participation, drop-out/degree completion, and degree class.) De Chaisemartin, Clement Econometrics Economics of Education Doyle, Chris Draca, Mirko Competition policy topics (almost any) IO models in relation to sports Economic impact assessments of major sporting events Regulation topics (esp. telecoms) Spectrum auctions – empirical assessments Firm-level productivity and innovation Policy analyses in relation to addictive goods (e.g. illicit drugs) Crime and drugs Testing for mixed strategies using data from sporting contests (e.g. tennis serves, penalty kicks. 1 and 2 are related whereas 3 is distinct Projects related to financial market event studies, in particular those related to political economy issues. For example: Wage inequality (including discrimination) Impacts of economic sanctions on firms Applied political economy topics (especially US issues) The returns to corporate crime Economics of crime Economic impacts of foreign policy interventions Behavioural economics topics in applied micro settings Dutta, Bhaskar Natural language processing Game Theory Applications of Microeconomics Epifanio, Mariaelisa International and comparative politics Political consequences of counterterrorist reforms Garratt, Dean Housing and mortgage markets Macroeconomic schools of thought Macroeconomics and household debt Balance sheets and macroeconomic activity Political business cycles Glazer, Jacob Health Economics Theoretical Industrial Organization Game Theory Golson, Eric Warfare economics Transportation economics Gozzi Valdez, Juan Carlos International Finance Banking and Financial Institutions Corporate Finance Gupta, Bishnu Economic History of Developing countries Economic Development Economic Demography Hammond, Peter Economic theory,especially decision and game theory, social choice, and mechanism design together with their relationalship to maths, philosophy, probability and statistics. Effects of unconventional monetary policy Dissertations on this topic analyze empirically the effects of unconventional monetary policies, such as quantitative easing (QE), on asset prices, investment allocation, and/or real outcomes. Dissertations on this topic would rely on micro-level data (e.g., individual firm stock prices; portfolio allocations of institutional investors; firm-level accounting data, etc.). Capital controls Dissertations on this topic analyze empirically the effects of capital controls on capital flows to emerging markets. Work on this area could also analyze the effects of capital controls on exchange rates, monetary policy independence, volatility, and/or firm performance. Dissertations on this topic could rely either on aggregate data (e.g., country level) or micro-level data (e.g., industry or firm level). International transmission of shocks Dissertations on this topic analyze empirically how shocks are transmitted across countries through financial markets and/or the role and determinants of financial contagion. Dissertations on this topic could rely either on aggregate data (e.g., countrylevel stock market indices; interest rates, etc.) or micro-level data (e.g., individual stock prices; portfolio allocations of institutional investors; firm-level accounting data, etc.). Harrison, Mark Hughes, Niall Jelonek, Piotr Jones, Elizabeth Applied Macro (not finance or trade) Policy Making Historical Economics of Development I have interests in defence, conflict and security but deficient background knowledge and data problems are usually a fatal combination - students will not be considered if they have no previous formal study of the topic. Political Economy Coalition government formation Game Theory Committee decision-making Information Economics Voting and elections Experimental Economics Computational economics Heavy-tailed econometrics Systemic stability Multi-agent systems Stochastic differential equations Education markets, the returns to education and developments in educational policy – both school and higher. Healthcare markets, government intervention and implications for policy. Not econometrics. Karalis Isaac, Alex Applied macro and econometrics, especially time-varying and non-linear models of business cycles and monetary policy. Some experience of discrete choice models in health applications Kelishomi, Ali Labour Economics, Macroeconomic Fluctuations (not open economy) Kremer, Ilan Finance, game theory, general equilibrium theory, auction theory, option pricing Lavy, Victor Labour Economics Education Economics Economic Development Policy Evaluation Macchiavello, Rocco Development Economics Industrial Organisation Organisational Economics Detailed case studies of value chains (e.g., cocoa, tropical fruits, garments, etc.), in which products are followed from origin countries (typically low income countries) until consumer/retailers in reach countries. Theoretical topics in development (e.g., analysis of corruption, how behavioural biases exacerbate / interacts with poverty) Empirical topics in development, with a focus on market imperfections and industrial organization topics. Economics of organized crime, mafias – both empirical and theoretical work. Mani, Anandi McMahon, Michael Martin, Tom Economic Development - microeconomic issues Applications and Experiments related to behavioural economics (except those with a strict game theoretic focus) Priority for MSFE students Macro-Business Cycles, Monetary policy & Fiscal Policy (NOT exchange rates or open economy) Development and applied microeconometrics Economic history of Italy The economics of reputation The economics of herd behaviour The economics of stereotypes Determinants / consequences of trust (both empirical / theoretical) The economics of languages (how languages diffuse) Using game theory / economic models to analyse texts (and vice versa) Does the fraction of minority group in political office matter for various public Is there a critical threshold fraction beyond which outcomes are influenced by such good outcomes? representation? In the Indian data from local government, for instance, there is random variation in the fraction of 'scheduled caste/tribes' in political office because the rules require that reservation of seats be linked to population shares in the local area. The student will need to put together the data and gather all this information on his/her own. Issues relating to central banking especially monetary policy Empirical text analysis Analysis of fiscal policy Business cycle models Economic poverty, inequality and mobility Microfinance Economics of Education Miller, Marcus Pecuniary externalities and boom/bust in asset markets Sovereign Debt Restructuring Economics of austerity in Europe and alternatives Fiscal Austerity and Alternatives Sovereign debt restructuring in Europe and Latin America Endogenous Financial Crises Moav, Omer Mukand, Sharun Monetary policy issues including Forward Guidance and Collaboration QE Economic Growth Development Theory Political Economy Development Economics Economics of Globalization Behavioural Economics Muthoo, Abhinay Any area of Economics Household/Family/ Marriage a)Divorce: Divorce rates have risen in many parts of the world over the past couple of decades or so. Why? Empirical study of possible determinants. Choose the country of your choice. b) Intra-household distribution of welfare: Empirically study determinants of inequality in consumption between spouses. Policy options. Focus on one or more countries. c) Stability of Marriage: Empirically explore the role and extent of 'affairs' on marriage outcomes. Democracy and Prosperity a)Empirically explore the role of democracy versus non-democracy on prosperity and/or happiness. b)How has the rise of social media affected the functioning of democracy. c) China v India. Which model will survive, is sustainable? a) Given the current situation, will there be a World War III in the next 25 years? The role of economic growth, globalisation, technology: and similarities and difference to the 25 years before World War I. b) Inequality and Conflict. Empirically study the role of economic equality or duration of conflict (be it civil wars or international conflict) a) Role that 'love' plays in long-term relationships especially economic outcomes such as distribution of consumption across spouses. b) Can love enhance productivity in the workplace? To empirically test this. a) Role of Social media on social capital formation. Are we still 'Bowling Alone? b) Role of religion in social capitol formation. c) Role of Social capitol on economic development. War and Peace Economics and Love Social Capitol and Economic Performance Naylor, Robin Noguera, Guillermo Novy, Dennis Returns to Education Intergenerational Mobility Educational Choice Educational Attainment International Trade See Crawford, Claire for joint topics Pollution content of trade Use the World Input Output Database, data on pollution at the sector-level for many countries, and standard gravity variables to analyze differences on the pollution content of trade using gross versus value added trade data. The effect of exchange rate of volatility on international trade Study how the effect of exchange rate volatility on international trade may change before and after the global 2008 trade collapse. Use data on bilateral trade and exchange rates from standard sources and estimate a gravity model. Address the simultaneity problem between the two variables using an instrumental variable approach. Transmission of oil price shocks through the input-output structure of the economy Analyze whether the recent decrease in oil prices propagated through intersectoral linkages. Use the World Input Output Database, data on sector-level price indices and a multi-sector macro model subject to shocks in the price of oil. Food Security See: http://www2.warwick.ac.uk/fac/soc/economics/staff/jmvanrens/msc for a list of joint topics with Thijs Van Rens and Marija Vukotic Should Caribbean form a Monetary Union/ Evidence from Trade Flows Has International Trade Become more Regionalized? Evidence from OECD Countries, 1960-2007 Why Does Africa Trade So Little? Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) in Eastern Europe - Who Invests and What are the Effects? Is The European Union As Well Integrated as the United States? Evidence from Intra-regional Trade Trade in Services Oswald, Andrew Applied Economics and Quantitative Social Science Pancrazi, Roberto Quantitative and Applied Macroeconomics International Macroeconomics International Finance Pascali, Luigi Priority for MSFE students Perroni, Carlo Taxation & Income Distribution Education Contracts I/O & Development Family Economics Game Theory Economic Theory Mechanism Design Auction Theory Social Choice Monopoly Pricing Regulations Market Failure Perry, Motty Pitt, Mike Priority for MSFE students Financial Time state Seriesspace models Non-Gaussian Stochastic Volatility models Financial Econometrics Bayesian methodology and Markov Chain Monte Carlo Polemarchakis, Herakles Postel-Vinay, Natasha Proto, Eugenio Filtering and Smoothing Time series with specified marginal densities Borrowing : The Enforcement of Intertemporal Budget Constraints Information vs Communication Partial Implementation Comprehensive Monetary Policy: the Determination of the Price Level (in an open economy) Does Myopia Cause Business Cycles? First Impressions Economic history Financial history and development Financial crises and panics The Great Depression The Great Recession Priority for MSc BES students Rathelot, Roland Labour Economics Econometrics Redoano, Michela Scharf, Kim Tax competition Fiscal Federalism Empirical political economy Globalisation and government performance Public Economics: Economics of the third sector (including work on tax incentives for giving, economics of charities, social cohesion, viable taxation, and the private provision of public goods); Jurisdiction formation; Tax competition; Tax evasion Sgroi, Daniel Priority for MSc BES students Silva Junior, Daniel Empirical Industrial Organisation Applied Microeconomics Applied Econometrics Economic history, business history, trade, and political economy, focusing on Britain and Latin America. Sims, Peter The theory of practice of monetary and fiscal policy Financial markets and economic activity Smith, Jennifer Labour-Macro: Unemployment, Wages, Mismatch, Migration Unemployment/Employment/Nonparticipation: A comparative analysis by gender, immigrant status, age or education. What affects the 1. unemployment rate 2. employment rate 3. nonparticipation (choose any one of these) among one of the following subgroups: a) women vs men b) immigrants vs natives (and immigrant subsets, subject to sample size) c) young vs old d) low education vs high education (and further education subsets, subject to sample size) (choose any one of these). These projects will use UK LFS data, which can be provided. Some extra data work might be required depending on particular interest. Help learning Mathematica to a sufficient level will be provided. STATA will be used for any further data work. The focus will be on comparing the proximate determinants of unemployment or employment or nonparticipation among the different labour market groups, namely job finding, job loss, and transitions between employment, unemployment and inactivity. Population growth and labour market dynamics What is the role of population growth (including net migration, births and deaths) in the dynamics of 1. unemployment 2. employment 3. nonparticipation (choose any one of these). a) Aggregate data and/or splits by b) gender, c) education, or d) region of birth are possible. These projects will use UK LFS data, which can be provided. Some extra data work might be required depending on particular interest. Help learning Mathematica to a sufficient level will be provided. STATA will be used for any further data work. The focus will be on assessing the role of new entry to the population (or labour force) on the path of unemployment, employment or nonparticipation. Results should be informative about the impact of migration and/or birth/death rates. Wage Rigidity 1. How has the extent of nominal or real wage rigidity changed over the last few decades? How has this varied by firm size / industry / occupation / region / gender / age / migrant status / education level? 2. What has been the impact of composition changes on the evolution of wage rigidity, compared to changes in “fundamentals”? These projects could use LFS or BHPS+Understanding Society data, which can be provided. Some extra data work might be provided depending on particular interest. STATA will be used to analyse these data. The aims of these projects are (1.) to understand ways of measuring wage rigidity and (2.) to analyse composition changes via inverse probability weighting. Extensions using variants of Oaxaca-Blinder decompositions may be undertaken. Smith, Jeremy Soegaard, Christian Economics of Education Applied time series (macro based topics as long as they have a substantial applied aspect) See Crawford, Claire for joint topics I am available to supervise any topic requiring application of time series econometrics, with particular interest on macroeconomic and financial variables. I am open to discuss any topic of your own choice or interest, which can be addressed with cointegration analysis, dynamic modelling, VAR models, ARCH and GARCH types of models. I am also willing to supervise work with a more specific focus on macroeconomic forecasting, involving for example analysing surveys of professional forecasters with applications to the Bank of England and the European Central Bank Surveys. Here are some representative readings in the macroeconomic forecasting area. V. Zarnowitz and L. Lambros, (1987). Consensus and Uncertainty in Economic Prediction, Journal of Political Economy, vol. 95(3), pp. 591-621. G. Boero, J. Smith and K. F. Wallis, (2008), Uncertainty and disagreement in economic prediction: the Bank of England Survey of External Forecasters. Economic Journal, 118 (July), pp. 1107-1127. G. Boero, J. Smith and K. F. Wallis, (2015), The measurement and characteristics of professional forecasters’ uncertainty. Journal of Applied Econometrics, forthcoming. C.L. Chua, D. Kim and S. Suardi, S. (2011). Are empirical measures of macroeconomic uncertainty alike? Journal of Economic Surveys, 25(4), pp. 801–827. J. Groen, G. Kapetanios and S. Price. (2009). A real time evaluation of Bank of England forecasts of inflation and growth. International Journal of Forecasting 25, pp. 74–80. Food Security See: http://www2.warwick.ac.uk/fac/soc/economics/staff/jmvanrens/msc for a list of joint topics with Roberto Pancrazi and Marija Vukotic Food Security See: http://www2.warwick.ac.uk/fac/soc/economics/staff/jmvanrens/msc for a list of joint topics with Thijs Van Rens and Roberto Pancrazi International Trade Industrial Organisation Squintani, Francesco Political Economy Labour Economics Political Economy Theory Theoretical Models of Communication Theoretical Models of Asymmetric Information. Stovall, John Decision Theory Social Choice Troeger, Vera Comparative Political Economy Quantitative Political Methodology Macroeconomics (except banking and international finance) Labor economics Applied econometrics (both time series and applied microeconometrics) Food security Economic History Religion Economics Conflict Economics (empirics) Long-run economic growth (empirics) Macroeconomics, Real Business Cycles, Monetary Economics Van Rens, Thijs Vidal-Robert, Jordi Vukotic, Marija Waldinger, Fabian Waterson, Mike Woodruff, Chris Empirical projects in Labour Economics Economics of Education Economics of Innovation Economics of Science Supermarket Pricing Behaviour Energy Storage Pricing Practices Empirical projects in the following broad research areas: Economics of Science and Innovation Economics of Education Economic History Contractual relationships in the London bus market and competition Supermarket pricing behaviour from a macroeconomic viewpoint Microenterprise Microfinance Productivity dispersion in low-income countries Informality Arulampalam, Wiji. Topic suggested by Jonathan Portes, Director National Institute of Economic and Social Research NIESR. Impact of austerity on mortality There have been a number of cross-country or top-down studies, but nothing in the UK looking at geographical variation in mortality and seeing if it is correlated with anything. There is excellent quality geographically disaggregated data on mortality. So the exercise would be to construct some variable designed to proxy for the impact of spending cuts at the same geographical level and see whether there was any correlation (controlling for other obvious things). There is, for example, local authority level data on spending (and probably on adult social care - looking at whether areas where social care was cut more did worse would be interesting). Muthoo, Abhinay. Topic suggested by Lord O’Donnell, Chairman of Frontier Economics. Muthoo, Abhinay. Topic suggested by Lord O’Donnell, Chairman of Frontier Economics. Oswald, Andrew. Topic suggested by Lord O’Donnell, Chairman of Frontier Economics. Smith, Jennifer. Topic suggested by Lee-Rose Jordan, Coventry City Council. Dealing with financial incompetence The Chancellor has given new pensioners the right to do whatever they want with their lump sum saving, instead of being forced to buy an annuity. How can we use behavioural insights to help such people to use this new freedom to improve their financial situation? The T-shirt problem Councils improved the energy efficiency of the house and flats they owned . On returning to ask the occupants how their energy use had changed they found many of them in T shirts. They were very "cosy" but had not reduced their energy consumption. How can we improve energy efficiency and reduce emissions? The Treasury considered implementing a tax scale such that the amount of tax would fall when prices were above the long term equilibrium level and rise when the price was below, thereby reducing the volatility of petrol prices and consumer prices overall. Were they right not to go ahead? Low Emission Vehicle Taxi Scheme The purpose of this topic is to investigate the taxi industry within Coventry, and the possibility of replacing current taxis with ultra-low emissions vehicles. This would involve: surveying and analysing data on existing Coventry taxi networks, mapping out their home locations against current charging points locations, investigating where customers are mainly dropped off, mapping drivers' taxi ranks, rest areas and frequency of use. Smith, Jennifer. Topic suggested by Jonathan Portes, Director National Institute of Economic and Social Research NIESR. Impact of recent immigration flows Make use of the National Insurance number new registration data. We used it here: http://niesr.ac.uk/publications/examining-relationship-between-immigration-andunemployment-using-national-insurance to look at unemployment impacts - but that's quite well trodden territory now. But in principle there's lots of other variables you could use to look at migration impacts - wages, crime, really anything for which you have decent LA or constituency level data. Moderating the impact of fluctuating oil prices