John Beshears James J. Choi Christopher Harris David Laibson Brigitte C. Madrian Jung Sakong October 18, 2014 } If people have self-control problems ◦ People are tempted to spend money that they had previously wanted to save ◦ E.g. quasi-hyperbolic intertemporal discounting } If people have self-control problems ◦ People are tempted to spend money that they had previously wanted to save ◦ E.g. quasi-hyperbolic intertemporal discounting } And if people wish to curb their actions ◦ People anticipate their self-control problems ◦ Sophisticated agents } If people have self-control problems ◦ People are tempted to spend money that they had previously wanted to save ◦ E.g. quasi-hyperbolic intertemporal discounting } And if people wish to curb their actions ◦ People anticipate their self-control problems ◦ Sophisticated agents } Then they may take up commitment devices that restrict their future choice set } Subjects recruited for an online experiment } Receive an endowment of money } Divide money between two types of accounts ◦ Liquid account ◦ Illiquid account } Make withdrawals over the next 6-12 months Billions of Dollars (2006) $80 Leakage from 401(k) Plans (2006) $74 $70 Loans $60 $50 Hardship withdrawals $40 $30 $20 $10 $0 Source: GAO-09-715, 2009 $1 $9 Cashouts at job change } Illiquidity creates costs – individuals cannot access funds when spending needs arise } } Illiquidity creates costs – individuals cannot access funds when spending needs arise But individuals may actually value greater illiquidity if it combats self-control problems Assigned to one of seven study arms (three today) Subjects from ALP participate over web Read rules Randomizing device selects $50, $100, or $500 Make allocations for $50, $100, $500 cases; if appropriate choose goal dates After one year study ends; all money is disbursed Subjects can start making withdrawals 7 days after initial allocation Freedom Account Goal Account v Subject picks a goal date v Liquid - can withdraw money v Illiquid before goal date any time within the period of v Liquid after goal date, just like experiment (1 year) freedom account v 22% interest per year v X % interest per year Freedom Account Goal Account v Subject picks a goal date v Liquid - can withdraw money v Illiquid before goal date any time within the period of v Liquid after goal date, just like experiment (1 year) freedom account v 22% interest per year v 22% interest per year Freedom Account Goal Account v Subject picks a goal date v Liquid - can withdraw money v Illiquid before goal date any time within the period of v Liquid after goal date, just like experiment (1 year) freedom account v 22% interest per year v 22% interest per year What does illiquid mean? Three cases in our study: • 10% withdrawal penalty: you get X but your account is debited (1.1)X. • 20% withdrawal penalty: you get X but your account is debited (1.2)X. • No withdrawals Average Horizon 10% penalty Fraction 0.39 (0.03) 81.8 (9.1) 20% penalty 0.45 (0.03) 100.5 (10.9) No withdrawal 0.56 (0.04) 131.8 (13.9) Subject allocates $100 between… Freedom Account Goal Account(s) • Subject picks a goal and a goal date • Liquid – can withdraw • Illiquid before goal date; money any time within the liquid after goal date, just period of experiment like Freedom Account • 22% interest per year • 22% interest per year Goal Account characteristic Arm 1 10% Penalty before goal date Arm 2 No Withdrawal before goal date Arm 3 • 10% Penalty • No Withdrawal Average Horizon 10% penalty Fraction 0.46 (0.03) 64.4 (5.5) No withdrawal 0.54 (0.02) 74.8 (4.4) Both 0.50 (0.03) 71.3 (4.8) 10% penalty 0.16 (0.01) No withdrawal 0.34 (0.02) } Three period model with present-­‐biased agent ◦ Period 0: make alloca9ons ◦ Period 1: first consump9on opportunity ◦ Period 2: final consump9on opportunity } Three period model with present-­‐biased agent ◦ Period 0: make alloca9ons ◦ Period 1: first consump9on opportunity ◦ Period 2: final consump9on opportunity } U9lity func9on (note u is CRRA) βθu(c1) + βu(c2) θu(c1) + βu(c2) u(c2) } Three period model with present-­‐biased agent ◦ Period 0: make alloca9ons ◦ Period 1: first consump9on opportunity ◦ Period 2: final consump9on opportunity } U9lity func9on (note u is CRRA) βθu(c1) + βu(c2) θu(c1) + βu(c2) u(c2) } Budget constraint: c1 + c2 ≤ y (note c1 ≥ 0, c2 ≥ 0) } In period 0, the agent does not observe θ but can force the choice in period 1 to be from a subset of the budget set, with the constraint that the slope cannot be more extreme than –(1 + π) } In period 0, the agent does not observe θ but can force the choice in period 1 to be from a subset of the budget set, with the constraint that the slope cannot be more extreme than –(1 + π) } Assume (1 – β)θf(θ) + F(θ) increases then decreases } The subset of the budget set chosen in period 0 is equivalent to dividing the endowment y between two accounts, one that imposes a penalty π on withdrawals in period 1, and another that imposes no penalty on withdrawals in period 1 } The subset of the budget set chosen in period 0 is equivalent to dividing the endowment y between two accounts, one that imposes a penalty π on withdrawals in period 1, and another that imposes no penalty on withdrawals in period 1 } If the coefficient of rela9ve risk aversion is one, the frac9on of the endowment allocated to the penalty account increases in π } Evidence that individuals recognize future self-control problems and adopt commitment devices } } Evidence that individuals recognize future self-control problems and adopt commitment devices Implications for firms and governments } } Evidence that individuals recognize future self-control problems and adopt commitment devices Implications for firms and governments ◦ Firms may not provide illiquid accounts because the government already has (401(k)s in the U.S.) } } Evidence that individuals recognize future self-control problems and adopt commitment devices Implications for firms and governments ◦ Firms may not provide illiquid accounts because the government already has (401(k)s in the U.S.) ◦ The availability of borrowing may undo illiquidity