Northwest Tennessee
Workforce Study
Business and Economic Research Center
Jennings A. Jones College of Business
Middle Tennessee State University
Northwest Tennessee
Workforce Study
Business and Economic Research Center
David Penn, Director
Murat Arik, Associate Director
Susan Harmon, Associate Professor,
Marketing
Overview of Study
 Current economic structure
Strengths and weaknesses
Preparedness to grow
Research Methods
 Analysis of population, employment,
income, and wage trends
 Survey of local employers
 Survey of workforce professionals
 Focus group interviews
Research Method
Surveys
Published
Data
Focus
Groups
Study Area
Seven counties stretching from the Memphis
suburbs north to Kentucky.
Represent between 3% and 4% of Tennessee
employment, labor force, and population.
Context
 Important trends –
 Increasing importance of trade.
 Foreign-made goods more in demand.
 Exports also growing quickly.
 International trade share of GDP on the
rise.
Context
 Important trends –
 Information technology revolution.
 IT sector responsible for large share of
recent growth.
 Widespread usage of IT has reduced
production costs, increased productivity.
Context
 Consequences
 Competition much more intense than
ten or twenty years ago.
 Companies have little pricing power.
Context
 Implications
 Pressure to increase productivity will
continue.
 Pressure to reduce production costs
will continue.
Context
 Results
 More consolidations, downsizing,
outsourcing.
 Productivity will be a critical factor; can
be enhanced with continuing education,
training.
 Reducing turnover, cutting fixed costs
also helpful in increasing productivity.
Current Structure
Population, income, employment
Among other Tennessee workforce areas, per
capita income is one of lowest and
unemployment rate one of the highest.
Growth of population and labor force flat, lag
state growth rate.
Personal income growth also lags state growth
rate.
Current Structure
Industrial Distribution
Much more dependent on manufacturing as a
source of employment and payroll than the
rest of the state, about twice as important as
for Tennessee.
Current Structure
Educational Attainment
Bachelor’s degree or higher –
Tennessee:
19.6%
NW Tennessee: 7.6% - 12.0%
Less than high school –
Tennessee:
24.1%
NW Tennessee: 25.4% - 36.1%
Current Employment Status
2,700
2,650
2,550
2,500
2,450
2,400
Tennessee
03
02
01
00
99
98
2,350
97
Thousands
2,600
Current Employment Trends
2,700
76.0
75.0
2,650
74.0
73.0
72.0
2,550
71.0
2,500
70.0
69.0
2,450
68.0
2,400
67.0
Tennessee
NW Counties
03
02
01
00
99
66.0
98
2,350
97
Thousands
2,600
Current Employment Trends
•Impacts on payroll employment vary by region of
state.
•Tennessee down 2.5% from peak in Jan 2000
to June 2003.
•Northwest counties down 8.2% from Jan
2000 peak.
Strengths and Weaknesses
Weaknesses
•Lack of industrial diversity
•Low educational attainment
•Weak regional cooperation
•Not enough resources for post-secondary
education
Strengths and Weaknesses
Workforce Professionals
Figure 25. Is the Existing Level of Workforce Education
a Barrier to Employment?
Not a Barrier
•Weak regional cooperation
Moderate Barrier
Major Barrier
0
10
20
30
40
Percent of Professional Opinion
50
60
Strengths and Weaknesses
Strengths
•Location
•Strong work ethic
There are a lot of people here who do care
about other people. It is a strong community
in that respect. I think we have some
positives; we just need to sell those positives
to other people.
Preparedness to Grow
Employers’ Viewpoint
Skills in new hires
Reading –
Not a problem:
34%
Moderate problem:
18%
High to critical problem: 6%
Math –
Not a problem:
26%
Moderate problem:
28%
High to critical problem: 10%
Preparedness to Grow
Employers’ Viewpoint
Skills in new hires
Writing –
Not a problem:
18%
Moderate problem:
33%
High to critical problem: 9%
Soft Skills –
Not a problem:
10%
Moderate problem:
31%
High to critical problem: 24%
Preparedness to Grow
Employers’ Viewpoint
Soft Skills
Right now, in banking, a high school degree is
not enough for the technical skills they need,
communication skills, people skills, soft skills
are not there...just things that a lot of us who
are older learned at home, such as people
skills, communication skills, how to dress.
Employers’ View
Percent
Figure 21. How Well Would You Say the Quality of the NW Tennessee Labor
Supply Meets Your Current Needs?
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
Extremely well
Very well
All employers
Acceptably well
Small employers
Not very well
Large employers
Not at all
Employers’ View
Occupations in shortest supply:
Receptionist/Clerk
Registered Nurse
Licensed Practical Nurse Machinist
Tool and Die Maker
Truck Driver
Computer Operator
Maintenance Worker
Laborer
Sales Representative
Welder/Fabricator
Teller
Customer Service Representative
Employers’ Viewpoint
Education Preferences for Occupations in Shortest Supply
Bachelor's degree
Some college
High school
Less than high
school
0.00% 10.00 20.00 30.00 40.00 50.00 60.00 70.00
%
%
%
%
%
%
%
Small employers Large employers
Employers’ Viewpoint
Education Preferences for Occupations in Shortest Supply
Bachelor's degree
Some college
High school
Less than high
school
0.00% 10.00 20.00 30.00 40.00 50.00 60.00 70.00
%
%
%
%
%
%
%
Small employers Large employers
Employers’ Viewpoint
For occupations in shortest supply:
Just 13.4% of jobs could be filled by workers
with less than high school diploma.
These workers comprise 31.1% of the
Northwest Tennessee workforce.
Employers’ Viewpoint
For occupations in shortest supply:
17.6% of jobs will be filled by workers with
at least a Bachelor’s degree (23.2% for large
employers).
These workers comprise 10.1% of the
Northwest Tennessee workforce.
Employers’ View - Growth
Table 40. Desired Level of Employment 10 Years
from Now
Level of Employment
Percent
Fewer Employees
13.1
About the Same Number
18.3
Up to 50 Percent More
51 Percent to 100 Percent
More
42.3
More Than 100 Percent More
17.5
8.8
Employers’ View – Hiring Needs
Demand for workers with less than high
school education will drop sharply during the
next ten years.
Demand for workers with a high school
degree will not grow as quickly as for those
with more education and training.
Employers’ View - Constraints
Figure 23. Most Important Constraints on Growth During the Next 10 Years
Healthcare costs
Workers’ compensation costs
Finding new markets
Improving productivity
Controlling non-labor costs
Availability of financial capital for expansion
Other
0.0% 10.0% 20.0% 30.0% 40.0% 50.0% 60.0% 70.0% 80.0%
Large employers
All employers
Small employers
Employers’ View - Constraints
Table 31. To What Extent Do Rising Health Care Insurance Costs Limit the Number
of Employees Your Company Can Hire?
Severity of Problem (percent of employers)
All Employers
Small Employers
Large Employers
Not a Problem
Low
Medium
High
Critical Problem
16.79
16.67
16.98
13.74
16.67
9.43
20.61
24.36
15.09
25.96
17.95
37.73
22.9
24.36
20.75
Employers’ Concerns
Generally optimistic about long-run
future.
Concerned about costs of health care.
Concerned about workers’ compensation
costs.
Want to find a way to keep more young
people in the area.
Preparedness to Grow
Uncontrollable factors
Markets trends
Competition
Growth
Controllable factors
Quality of human resources
Cultural and recreational
amenities
Infrastructure
Are We Prepared?
Context for Northwest Tennessee
 Future jobs will require broader skills





Mathematics
Communication
Computer skills
Analytical reasoning
Creativity
Are We Prepared?
Context for Northwest Tennessee
 A broadly skilled workforce is more
able to adapt to changing economic
conditions.
 Very difficult to identify winners with any
degree of certainty.
 Workers with broad skills have better
chance of success.
 Workforce better prepared to take
advantage of opportunities that arise.
Final Thoughts
Growth is what happens to
us.
Economic development is nurtured
from within.
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