Imagine All the People
Making the Great Transition
Paul Raskin, Tellus Institute
Structure of the Argument
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The larger challenge: shaping a global civilization
The Planetary Phase: the scientific basis for hope
Global citizenship: an emerging identity
Missing actor: a global citizens movement
Dangerous Trends
Safe Zone
Danger Zone
Climate Change
Ocean Acidification
International Inequity
Poverty
Key
Current value
2100 MF scenario
Proximate and Ultimate Drivers
Proximate Drivers
Population
Values and Needs
Economy
Technology
Knowledge and
Understanding
Power
Structure
Ultimate Drivers
Governance
Culture
Structure of the Argument
•
•
•
•
The larger challenge: shaping a global civilization
The Planetary Phase: the scientific basis for hope
Global citizenship: an emerging identity
Missing actor: a global citizens movement
Historical Transitions
Complexity
Planetary Phase
c. 100 years ?
Modern Era
c. 1,000 years
Stone Age
c. 100,000 years
20,000
Early Civilization
c. 10,000 years
10,000
Years Before Present
0
Accelerated Transitions
Planetary
Phase
Modern Era
Early Civilization
Stone Age
105
104
103
Years Before Present
102
Social Organization
Planet
Nation
City-state
Tribe
105
104
103
Years Before Present
102
Economic Basis
Globalization
Industrial capitalism
Settled agriculture
Hunting &
gathering
105
104
103
Years Before Present
102
Communication
Internet
Printing
Writing
Language
105
104
103
Years Before Present
102
Branching Trajectories
Driving forces, trends,
and policies
Critical uncertainties
•  Socio-ecological crises
•  Human choice
Past
Future
Conventional Worlds
Branching Trajectories
Global citizens movement
Past
Future
Conventional Worlds
Core Values, Critical Strategies
Culture
GT Values
•  Solidarity
•  Quality-of-life
•  Respect for nature
Action
Strategies
•  Advancing a global political community
•  Cultivating the art of living
•  Redesigning economic institutions
Scientific Basis for Hope
2010
Poverty
Market Forces
# hungry
CO2 emissions
Climate
Great
Transition
2050
2100
2010
Water
2100
Ecosystems
Habitat
# in water stress
2010
2050
2050
2100
2010
2050
2100
Back from the Danger Zone
Great Transition
Danger Zone
Climate Change
Ocean Acidification
International Inequity
Poverty
Key
Current value
2100 MF scenario
Structure of the Argument
•
•
•
•
The larger challenge: shaping a global civilization
The Planetary Phase: the scientific basis for hope
Global citizenship: an emerging identity
Missing social actor: a global citizens movement
Evolution of Citizenship
•  18th century – civil citizenship
•
19th century – political citizenship
•  20th century – social citizenship
•  21st century – global citizenship
Structure of the Argument
•
•
•
•
The larger challenge: shaping a global civilization
The Planetary Phase: the scientific basis for hope
Global citizenship: an emerging identity
Missing social actor: a global citizens movement
Change Agents
Intergovernmental
organizations
Transnational
corporations
Civil society
Global citizens
movement
Factors in Movement Formation
•  System vulnerability (grievance, delegitmation)
•  Organizational capability (effective action)
•  Cultural solidarity (identity, community)
Rising Up
Never doubt that a small group of thoughtful,
committed citizens can change the world.
Indeed, it’s the only thing that ever has.
Action
Earthlanders Unite!
Vision
Understanding