INDUSTRIAL ECONOMICS, INCORPORATED
RDKnecht_Workpapers_R-3563-.xls; Parameters
IMPACT OF RISING INDUSTRIAL LOAD ON ALLOCATED GENERATION COSTS
EXHIBIT RDK-1: LOAD GROWTH AND ALLOCATION PARAMETERS
(1)
D et DM
DH
DT
Residential
(2)
(3)
2004
Heritage
Heritage
Pool F'cast Pool Alloc. 2005 Pool
Sales
Sales F'cast Sales
(GWh)
(GWh)
(GWh)
53,133
54,108
54,643
4
4
4
2,585
2,620
2,635
55,722
56,732
57,282
(4)
(5)
(6)
(7)
(8)
(9)
(10)
(11)
(12)
Rev. 2005
Consumption GWh
54,959
4
2,650
57,613
2006
Consumption GWh
55,720
4
2,687
58,411
2007
Consumption GWh
56,249
4
2,712
58,965
2008
Consumption GWh
56,842
4
2,741
59,587
2009
Consumption GWh
56,985
4
2,748
59,737
2010
Consumption GWh
57,306
4
2,763
60,074
2011
Consumption GWh
57,550
4
2,775
60,329
2012
Consumption GWh
58,126
4
2,803
60,933
2013
Consumption GWh
58,231
4
2,808
61,044
(13)
(14)
2005 Loss
2014 Factor (Pct
Consumpof
tion GWh Consump.)
58,568
9.30%
4
9.30%
2,824
9.30%
61,396
9.30%
(15)
2005 Load
Factor
47.2%
51.7%
80.0%
G
G9
M
Lighting
Commercial
12,214
1,055
25,904
554
39,727
12,171
1,053
25,044
543
38,811
12,606
1,092
25,238
554
39,490
12,134
1,051
24,294
533
38,012
12,320
1,067
24,666
541
38,595
12,466
1,080
24,958
548
39,052
12,549
1,087
25,123
551
39,311
12,553
1,087
25,132
552
39,325
12,687
1,099
25,400
558
39,743
12,771
1,106
25,569
561
40,007
12,939
1,121
25,905
569
40,533
13,027
1,128
26,081
573
40,810
13,153
1,139
26,332
578
41,202
9.20%
9.00%
8.50%
9.30%
8.75%
62.8%
68.7%
78.5%
86.8%
L
H
Special Contracts
Industrial
48,451
16
20,298
68,765
50,413
10
20,434
70,857
52,236
10
20,434
72,680
52,236
10
20,434
72,680
55,300
10
20,434
75,744
56,793
10
20,434
77,237
58,342
10
20,434
78,786
59,333
10
20,434
79,777
59,874
10
20,434
80,318
60,378
10
20,434
80,822
61,011
10
20,434
81,455
61,315
10
20,434
81,759
61,779
10
20,434
82,223
5.50%
6.80%
5.20%
5.42%
95.8%
76.9%
99.9%
164,214
166,400
169,452
168,305
172,750
175,254
177,683
178,840
180,135
181,158
182,921
183,612
184,822
7.51%
58.97
27.19
5.50
10.95
67.32
4.42
0.91
175.25
59.59
27.29
5.61
11.10
68.66
4.51
0.91
177.68
59.74
27.21
5.68
11.21
69.51
4.59
0.91
178.84
60.07
27.51
5.71
11.32
69.93
4.67
0.91
180.14
60.33
27.63
5.75
11.46
70.31
4.76
0.91
181.16
60.93
27.98
5.79
11.63
70.80
4.87
0.92
182.92
61.04
28.15
5.80
11.75
71.01
4.94
0.92
183.61
61.40
28.38
5.83
11.90
71.35
5.04
0.92
184.82
Total
R-3550-2005 HQD Forecast Summary (TWh)
Residential & Farm
Net Rate BT
Gen'l & Institutional excl. Ind.
Net Rate BT
Estimated Rate L Load in G&I
Industrial PME
Net Rate BT
Industrial
Municipal Networks (Rate L)
Other (excl municipal)
Total
57.69
(0.07)
27.37
(0.78)
5.17
10.72
(0.13)
63.26
4.25
0.84
168.31
58.44
(0.03)
27.23
(0.32)
5.39
10.83
(0.04)
66.02
4.33
0.89
172.75
Sources:
(1) R-3492-2002 Table A4.2
(2) Heritage pool of 166.4 TWh interpolated between 2004 and 2005 (column 4)
(3) R-3541-2004 HQD-12, Document 4, page 17 of 112.
(4) - (13) TWh Numbers: R-3550-2005 Table 2.1 and response to Régie question 8.1
GWh Numbers: Allocate TWh forecast by class group to individual rate classes based on 2005 forecast shares (column 3).
All industrial load growth is assumed to occur in Rate L.
(14) R-3541-2004 HQD-12, Document 1, Table B
(15) R-3541-2004 HQD-12, Document 1, Table B
Page 1 of 15
10:41 AM; 4/22/2005
INDUSTRIAL ECONOMICS, INCORPORATED
RDKnecht_Workpapers_R-3563-.xls; Incr Alloc 2005
IMPACT OF RISING INDUSTRIAL LOAD ON ALLOCATED GENERATION COSTS
EXHIBIT RDK-2: DETAILED ALLOCATION OF HERITAGE POOL AND INCREMENTAL GENERATION COSTS FOR 2005
(1)
D et DM
DH
DT
Residential
Allocated
Heritage Pool
Load GWh
54,108
4
2,620
56,732
(2)
(3)
(4)
(5)
(6)
Loss
Allocation of
Factor Load Factor Peak Demand
Heritage
Percent of
for Gen. for Gen. Alloc.
Pool Costs
Cons.
Allocation
MW
(cts/kWh)
9.30%
47.20%
13,086
3.20
9.30%
51.70%
1
3.09
9.30%
80.00%
374
2.68
9.30%
48.11%
13,461
3.18
G
G9
M
Lighting
Commercial
12,171
1,053
25,044
543
38,811
9.20%
9.00%
8.50%
9.30%
8.74%
62.80%
68.70%
78.50%
86.80%
72.62%
2,212
175
3,642
71
6,101
2.88
2.79
2.67
2.62
2.74
L
H
Special Contracts
Industrial
50,413
10
20,434
70,857
5.50%
6.80%
5.20%
5.41%
95.80%
76.90%
99.90%
96.94%
6,007
1
2,335
8,344
2.46
2.64
2.43
2.45
166,400
7.52%
8.02%
68.07%
27,905
2.77
2.77
Total
Peak Loss Factor Total
(7)
(8)
(9)
(10)
IncrePeak
mental Loss Factor Load Factor Demand for
Allocation
2005 Load Percent of
for Gen. Gen. Alloc. of Incr. Costs
GWh
Cons.
Allocation
MW
(cts/kWh)
850
9.30%
47.20%
206
8.83
0
9.30%
51.70%
0
8.53
30
9.30%
80.00%
4
7.43
881
9.30%
47.88%
210
8.78
(37)
(2)
(750)
(10)
(798)
(11)
(12)
Average
Allocated
Gen. Costs
cts/kWh
3.29
3.11
2.73
3.27
Percent
Incr. over
Heritage
Pool
2.7%
0.5%
2.0%
2.7%
9.20%
9.00%
8.50%
9.30%
8.54%
62.80%
68.70%
78.50%
86.80%
77.66%
(7)
(0)
(109)
(1)
(117)
7.98
7.74
7.42
7.28
7.44
2.87
2.78
2.52
2.53
2.64
-0.5%
-0.3%
-5.5%
-3.2%
-3.6%
1,823
1,823
5.50%
6.80%
5.20%
5.50%
95.80%
76.90%
99.90%
95.80%
217
217
6.86
7.34
6.77
6.86
2.61
2.64
2.43
2.56
6.2%
0.0%
0.0%
4.5%
1,905
5.98%
6.92%
70.20%
310
7.50
7.50
2.82
1.9%
Sources:
(1) Exhibit RDK-1, column (2)
(2) Exhibit RDK-1, column (14)
(3) Exhibit RDK-1, column (15)
(4) Column (1) / 8.76 / Column (3)
(5) HQD Algorithm: Ci = CT * [UT * (1+Li)/(1+LT) + (1-UT) * UT/Ui * (1+Li)/(1+LT)]
Heritage Pool total rate based on R-3541-2004 HQD-12, Document 1, Table B
(6) Exhibit RDK-1 column (4) - column (1) on this page.
(7) Column (2)
(8) Column (3)
(9) Column (6) / 8.76 / Column (8)
(10) HQD Algorithm: Ci = CT * [UT * (1+Li)/(1+LT) + (1-UT) * UT/Ui * (1+Li)/(1+LT)]
Total incremental cost rate from Exhibit RDK-4
(11) Weighted average of columns (5) and (10)
(12) Column (11) / Column (5) - 1
Page 2 of 15
10:41 AM; 4/22/2005
INDUSTRIAL ECONOMICS, INCORPORATED
RDKnecht_Workpapers_R-3563-.xls; Incr Alloc 2006
IMPACT OF RISING INDUSTRIAL LOAD ON ALLOCATED GENERATION COSTS
EXHIBIT RDK-2: DETAILED ALLOCATION OF HERITAGE POOL AND INCREMENTAL GENERATION COSTS FOR 2006
(1)
D et DM
DH
DT
Residential
Allocated
Heritage Pool
Load GWh
54,108
4
2,620
56,732
(2)
(3)
(4)
(5)
(6)
Loss
Allocation of
Factor Load Factor Peak Demand
Heritage
Percent of
for Gen. for Gen. Alloc.
Pool Costs
Cons.
Allocation
MW
(cts/kWh)
9.30%
47.20%
13,086
3.20
9.30%
51.70%
1
3.09
9.30%
80.00%
374
2.68
9.30%
48.11%
13,461
3.18
G
G9
M
Lighting
Commercial
12,171
1,053
25,044
543
38,811
9.20%
9.00%
8.50%
9.30%
8.74%
62.80%
68.70%
78.50%
86.80%
72.62%
2,212
175
3,642
71
6,101
2.88
2.79
2.67
2.62
2.74
L
H
Special Contracts
Industrial
50,413
10
20,434
70,857
5.50%
6.80%
5.20%
5.41%
95.80%
76.90%
99.90%
96.94%
6,007
1
2,335
8,344
2.46
2.64
2.43
2.45
166,400
7.52%
8.02%
68.07%
27,905
2.77
2.77
Total
Peak Loss Factor Total
(7)
(8)
(9)
(10)
IncrePeak
mental Loss Factor Load Factor Demand for
Allocation
2006 Load Percent of
for Gen. Gen. Alloc. of Incr. Costs
GWh
Cons.
Allocation
MW
(cts/kWh)
1,611
9.30%
47.20%
390
9.46
0
9.30%
51.70%
0
9.18
67
9.30%
80.00%
10
8.15
1,679
9.30%
47.99%
399
9.41
149
14
(378)
(1)
(216)
(11)
(12)
Average
Allocated
Gen. Costs
cts/kWh
3.38
3.19
2.81
3.36
Percent
Incr. over
Heritage
Pool
5.6%
3.2%
5.1%
5.6%
9.20%
9.00%
8.50%
9.30%
7.99%
62.80%
68.70%
78.50%
86.80%
95.98%
27
2
(55)
(0)
(26)
8.66
8.44
8.13
8.00
7.74
2.95
2.87
2.59
2.60
2.71
2.4%
2.7%
-3.1%
-0.6%
-1.0%
4,887
4,887
5.50%
6.80%
5.20%
5.50%
95.80%
76.90%
99.90%
95.80%
582
582
7.57
8.04
7.48
7.57
2.91
2.64
2.43
2.78
18.3%
0.0%
0.0%
13.5%
6,350
6.42%
7.03%
75.82%
956
8.05
8.05
2.96
7.0%
Sources:
(1) Exhibit RDK-1, column (2)
(2) Exhibit RDK-1, column (14)
(3) Exhibit RDK-1, column (15)
(4) Column (1) / 8.76 / Column (3)
(5) HQD Algorithm: Ci = CT * [UT * (1+Li)/(1+LT) + (1-UT) * UT/Ui * (1+Li)/(1+LT)]
Heritage Pool total rate based on R-3541-2004 HQD-12, Document 1, Table B
(6) Exhibit RDK-1 column (5) - column (1) on this page.
(7) Column (2)
(8) Column (3)
(9) Column (6) / 8.76 / Column (8)
(10) HQD Algorithm: Ci = CT * [UT * (1+Li)/(1+LT) + (1-UT) * UT/Ui * (1+Li)/(1+LT)]
Total incremental cost rate from Exhibit RDK-4
(11) Weighted average of columns (5) and (10)
(12) Column (11) / Column (5) - 1
Page 3 of 15
10:41 AM; 4/22/2005
INDUSTRIAL ECONOMICS, INCORPORATED
RDKnecht_Workpapers_R-3563-.xls; Incr Alloc 2007
IMPACT OF RISING INDUSTRIAL LOAD ON ALLOCATED GENERATION COSTS
EXHIBIT RDK-2: DETAILED ALLOCATION OF HERITAGE POOL AND INCREMENTAL GENERATION COSTS FOR 2007
(1)
D et DM
DH
DT
Residential
Allocated
Heritage
Pool Load
GWh
54,108
4
2,620
56,732
(2)
(3)
(4)
(5)
(6)
Loss
Allocation of
Factor Load Factor Peak Demand
Heritage
Percent of
for Gen. for Gen. Alloc.
Pool Costs
Cons.
Allocation
MW
(cts/kWh)
9.30%
47.20%
13,086
3.20
9.30%
51.70%
1
3.09
9.30%
80.00%
374
2.68
9.30%
48.11%
13,461
3.18
G
G9
M
Lighting
Commercial
12,171
1,053
25,044
543
38,811
9.20%
9.00%
8.50%
9.30%
8.74%
62.80%
68.70%
78.50%
86.80%
72.62%
2,212
175
3,642
71
6,101
2.88
2.79
2.67
2.62
2.74
L
H
Special Contracts
Industrial
50,413
10
20,434
70,857
5.50%
6.80%
5.20%
5.41%
95.80%
76.90%
99.90%
96.94%
6,007
1
2,335
8,344
2.46
2.64
2.43
2.45
Total
166,400
Peak Loss Factor Total
7.52%
8.02%
68.07%
27,905
2.77
2.77
(7)
(8)
(9)
(10)
IncrePeak
mental Loss Factor Load Factor Demand for
2007 Load Percent of
for Gen. Gen. Alloc.
GWh
Cons.
Allocation
MW
2,140
9.30%
47.20%
518
0
9.30%
51.70%
0
93
9.30%
80.00%
13
2,233
9.30%
48.02%
531
295
27
(86)
5
241
(11)
(12)
Allocation
of Incr.
Costs
(cts/kWh)
8.04
7.80
6.92
7.99
Average
Allocated
Gen. Costs
cts/kWh
3.39
3.21
2.82
3.36
Percent
Incr. over
Heritage
Pool
5.7%
3.9%
5.4%
5.7%
9.20%
9.00%
8.50%
9.30%
9.43%
62.80%
68.70%
78.50%
86.80%
59.49%
54
4
(12)
1
46
7.35
7.16
6.90
6.79
7.48
2.99
2.90
2.66
2.65
2.77
3.7%
3.9%
-0.5%
1.4%
1.1%
6,380
6,380
5.50%
6.80%
5.20%
5.50%
95.80%
76.90%
99.90%
95.80%
760
760
6.42
6.82
6.35
6.42
2.91
2.64
2.43
2.78
18.1%
0.0%
0.0%
13.4%
8,854
6.57%
7.14%
75.58%
1,337
6.85
6.85
2.97
7.4%
Sources:
(1) Exhibit RDK-1, column (2)
(2) Exhibit RDK-1, column (14)
(3) Exhibit RDK-1, column (15)
(4) Column (1) / 8.76 / Column (3)
(5) HQD Algorithm: Ci = CT * [UT * (1+Li)/(1+LT) + (1-UT) * UT/Ui * (1+Li)/(1+LT)]
Heritage Pool total rate based on R-3541-2004 HQD-12, Document 1, Table B
(6) Exhibit RDK-1 column (6) - column (1) on this page.
(7) Column (2)
(8) Column (3)
(9) Column (6) / 8.76 / Column (8)
(10) HQD Algorithm: Ci = CT * [UT * (1+Li)/(1+LT) + (1-UT) * UT/Ui * (1+Li)/(1+LT)]
Total incremental cost rate from Exhibit RDK-4
(11) Weighted average of columns (5) and (10)
(12) Column (11) / Column (5) - 1
Page 4 of 15
10:41 AM; 4/22/2005
INDUSTRIAL ECONOMICS, INCORPORATED
RDKnecht_Workpapers_R-3563-.xls; Incr Alloc 2008
IMPACT OF RISING INDUSTRIAL LOAD ON ALLOCATED GENERATION COSTS
EXHIBIT RDK-2: DETAILED ALLOCATION OF HERITAGE POOL AND INCREMENTAL GENERATION COSTS FOR 2008
(1)
D et DM
DH
DT
Residential
Allocated
Heritage
Pool Load
GWh
54,108
4
2,620
56,732
(2)
(3)
(4)
(5)
(6)
Loss
Allocation of
Factor Load Factor Peak Demand
Heritage
Percent of
for Gen. for Gen. Alloc.
Pool Costs
Cons.
Allocation
MW
(cts/kWh)
9.30%
47.20%
13,086
3.20
9.30%
51.70%
1
3.09
9.30%
80.00%
374
2.68
9.30%
48.11%
13,461
3.18
(7)
(8)
(9)
(10)
IncrePeak
mental Loss Factor Load Factor Demand for
2008 Load Percent of
for Gen. Gen. Alloc.
GWh
Cons.
Allocation
MW
2,733
9.30%
47.20%
661
0
9.30%
51.70%
0
121
9.30%
80.00%
17
2,854
9.30%
48.04%
678
(11)
(12)
Allocation
of Incr.
Costs
(cts/kWh)
7.90
7.66
6.79
7.85
Average
Allocated
Gen. Costs
cts/kWh
3.43
3.25
2.86
3.40
Percent
Incr. over
Heritage
Pool
7.0%
5.3%
6.8%
7.0%
G
G9
M
Lighting
Commercial
12,171
1,053
25,044
543
38,811
9.20%
9.00%
8.50%
9.30%
8.74%
62.80%
68.70%
78.50%
86.80%
72.62%
2,212
175
3,642
71
6,101
2.88
2.79
2.67
2.62
2.74
377
34
80
9
500
9.20%
9.00%
8.50%
9.30%
9.08%
62.80%
68.70%
78.50%
86.80%
65.59%
69
6
12
1
87
7.22
7.03
6.77
6.66
7.12
3.01
2.93
2.68
2.68
2.79
4.5%
4.8%
0.5%
2.4%
2.0%
L
H
Special Contracts
Industrial
50,413
10
20,434
70,857
5.50%
6.80%
5.20%
5.41%
95.80%
76.90%
99.90%
96.94%
6,007
1
2,335
8,344
2.46
2.64
2.43
2.45
7,929
7,929
5.50%
6.80%
5.20%
5.50%
95.80%
76.90%
99.90%
95.80%
945
945
6.30
6.70
6.23
6.30
2.98
2.64
2.43
2.84
21.2%
0.0%
0.0%
15.8%
Total
166,400
Peak Loss Factor Total
7.52%
8.02%
68.07%
27,905
2.77
2.77
11,283
6.62%
7.19%
75.32%
1,710
6.73
6.73
3.02
9.1%
Sources:
(1) Exhibit RDK-1, column (2)
(2) Exhibit RDK-1, column (14)
(3) Exhibit RDK-1, column (15)
(4) Column (1) / 8.76 / Column (3)
(5) HQD Algorithm: Ci = CT * [UT * (1+Li)/(1+LT) + (1-UT) * UT/Ui * (1+Li)/(1+LT)]
Heritage Pool total rate based on R-3541-2004 HQD-12, Document 1, Table B
(6) Exhibit RDK-1 column (7) - column (1) on this page.
(7) Column (2)
(8) Column (3)
(9) Column (6) / 8.76 / Column (8)
(10) HQD Algorithm: Ci = CT * [UT * (1+Li)/(1+LT) + (1-UT) * UT/Ui * (1+Li)/(1+LT)]
Total incremental cost rate from Exhibit RDK-4
(11) Weighted average of columns (5) and (10)
(12) Column (11) / Column (5) - 1
Page 5 of 15
10:41 AM; 4/22/2005
INDUSTRIAL ECONOMICS, INCORPORATED
RDKnecht_Workpapers_R-3563-.xls; Incr Alloc 2009
IMPACT OF RISING INDUSTRIAL LOAD ON ALLOCATED GENERATION COSTS
EXHIBIT RDK-2: DETAILED ALLOCATION OF HERITAGE POOL AND INCREMENTAL GENERATION COSTS FOR 2009
(1)
D et DM
DH
DT
Residential
(2)
(3)
(4)
(5)
(6)
Allocated
Peak Allocation of
Heritage Loss Factor Load Factor Demand for Heritage Pool
Pool Load Percent of
for Gen. Gen. Alloc.
Costs
GWh
Cons.
Allocation
MW
(cts/kWh)
54,108
9.30%
47.20%
13,086
3.20
4
9.30%
51.70%
1
3.09
2,620
9.30%
80.00%
374
2.68
56,732
9.30%
48.11%
13,461
3.18
(7)
(8)
(9)
(10)
IncrePeak
mental Loss Factor Load Factor Demand for Allocation of
2009 Load
Percent of
for Gen. Gen. Alloc.
Incr. Costs
GWh
Cons.
Allocation
MW
(cts/kWh)
2,877
9.30%
47.20%
696
8.21
0
9.30%
51.70%
0
7.97
128
9.30%
80.00%
18
7.08
3,005
9.30%
48.04%
714
8.16
(11)
(12)
Average
Allocated
Gen. Costs
cts/kWh
3.46
3.28
2.88
3.43
Percent
Incr. over
Heritage
Pool
7.9%
6.0%
7.7%
7.9%
G
G9
M
Lighting
Commercial
12,171
1,053
25,044
543
38,811
9.20%
9.00%
8.50%
9.30%
8.74%
62.80%
68.70%
78.50%
86.80%
72.62%
2,212
175
3,642
71
6,101
2.88
2.79
2.67
2.62
2.74
382
34
89
9
514
9.20%
9.00%
8.50%
9.30%
9.07%
62.80%
68.70%
78.50%
86.80%
65.76%
69
6
13
1
89
7.52
7.33
7.06
6.96
7.42
3.02
2.94
2.69
2.68
2.80
4.9%
5.2%
0.6%
2.6%
2.2%
L
H
Special Contracts
Industrial
50,413
10
20,434
70,857
5.50%
6.80%
5.20%
5.41%
95.80%
76.90%
99.90%
96.94%
6,007
1
2,335
8,344
2.46
2.64
2.43
2.45
8,921
8,921
5.50%
6.80%
5.20%
5.50%
95.80%
76.90%
99.90%
95.80%
1,063
1,063
6.58
6.98
6.51
6.58
3.08
2.64
2.43
2.91
25.1%
0.0%
0.0%
18.8%
Total
166,400
Peak Loss Factor Total
7.52%
8.02%
68.07%
27,905
2.77
2.77
12,440
6.57%
7.13%
76.09%
1,866
7.00
7.00
3.06
10.6%
Sources:
(1) Exhibit RDK-1, column (2)
(2) Exhibit RDK-1, column (14)
(3) Exhibit RDK-1, column (15)
(4) Column (1) / 8.76 / Column (3)
(5) HQD Algorithm: Ci = CT * [UT * (1+Li)/(1+LT) + (1-UT) * UT/Ui * (1+Li)/(1+LT)]
Heritage Pool total rate based on R-3541-2004 HQD-12, Document 1, Table B
(6) Exhibit RDK-1 column (8) - column (1) on this page.
(7) Column (2)
(8) Column (3)
(9) Column (6) / 8.76 / Column (8)
(10) HQD Algorithm: Ci = CT * [UT * (1+Li)/(1+LT) + (1-UT) * UT/Ui * (1+Li)/(1+LT)]
Total incremental cost rate from Exhibit RDK-4
(11) Weighted average of columns (5) and (10)
(12) Column (11) / Column (5) - 1
Page 6 of 15
10:41 AM; 4/22/2005
INDUSTRIAL ECONOMICS, INCORPORATED
RDKnecht_Workpapers_R-3563-.xls; Incr Alloc 2010
IMPACT OF RISING INDUSTRIAL LOAD ON ALLOCATED GENERATION COSTS
EXHIBIT RDK-2: DETAILED ALLOCATION OF HERITAGE POOL AND INCREMENTAL GENERATION COSTS FOR 2010
(1)
D et DM
DH
DT
Residential
Allocated
Heritage Pool
Load GWh
54,108
4
2,620
56,732
(2)
(3)
(4)
(5)
(6)
Loss
Allocation of
Factor Load Factor Peak Demand
Heritage
Percent of
for Gen. for Gen. Alloc.
Pool Costs
Cons.
Allocation
MW
(cts/kWh)
9.30%
47.20%
13,086
3.20
9.30%
51.70%
1
3.09
9.30%
80.00%
374
2.68
9.30%
48.11%
13,461
3.18
(7)
(8)
(9)
(10)
IncrePeak
mental Loss Factor Load Factor Demand for
Allocation
2010 Load Percent of
for Gen. Gen. Alloc. of Incr. Costs
GWh
Cons.
Allocation
MW
(cts/kWh)
3,198
9.30%
47.20%
773
8.49
0
9.30%
51.70%
0
8.24
144
9.30%
80.00%
20
7.30
3,341
9.30%
48.05%
794
8.44
(11)
(12)
Average
Allocated
Gen. Costs
cts/kWh
3.50
3.32
2.92
3.47
Percent
Incr. over
Heritage
Pool
9.2%
7.2%
9.0%
9.2%
G
G9
M
Lighting
Commercial
12,171
1,053
25,044
543
38,811
9.20%
9.00%
8.50%
9.30%
8.74%
62.80%
68.70%
78.50%
86.80%
72.62%
2,212
175
3,642
71
6,101
2.88
2.79
2.67
2.62
2.74
515
46
356
15
932
9.20%
9.00%
8.50%
9.30%
8.92%
62.80%
68.70%
78.50%
86.80%
68.63%
94
8
52
2
155
7.76
7.56
7.28
7.17
7.56
3.08
2.99
2.73
2.74
2.85
6.9%
7.2%
2.4%
4.6%
4.1%
L
H
Special Contracts
Industrial
50,413
10
20,434
70,857
5.50%
6.80%
5.20%
5.41%
95.80%
76.90%
99.90%
96.94%
6,007
1
2,335
8,344
2.46
2.64
2.43
2.45
9,462
9,462
5.50%
6.80%
5.20%
5.50%
95.80%
76.90%
99.90%
95.80%
1,127
1,127
6.78
7.20
6.70
6.78
3.14
2.64
2.43
2.96
27.7%
0.0%
0.0%
20.8%
166,400
7.52%
8.02%
68.07%
27,905
2.77
2.77
13,735
6.66%
7.21%
75.51%
2,076
7.24
7.24
3.11
12.3%
Total
Peak Loss Factor Total
Sources:
(1) Exhibit RDK-1, column (2)
(2) Exhibit RDK-1, column (14)
(3) Exhibit RDK-1, column (15)
(4) Column (1) / 8.76 / Column (3)
(5) HQD Algorithm: Ci = CT * [UT * (1+Li)/(1+LT) + (1-UT) * UT/Ui * (1+Li)/(1+LT)]
Heritage Pool total rate based on R-3541-2004 HQD-12, Document 1, Table B
(6) Exhibit RDK-1 column (9) - column (1) on this page.
(7) Column (2)
(8) Column (3)
(9) Column (6) / 8.76 / Column (8)
(10) HQD Algorithm: Ci = CT * [UT * (1+Li)/(1+LT) + (1-UT) * UT/Ui * (1+Li)/(1+LT)]
Total incremental cost rate from Exhibit RDK-4
(11) Weighted average of columns (5) and (10)
(12) Column (11) / Column (5) - 1
Page 7 of 15
10:41 AM; 4/22/2005
INDUSTRIAL ECONOMICS, INCORPORATED
RDKnecht_Workpapers_R-3563-.xls; Incr Alloc 2011
IMPACT OF RISING INDUSTRIAL LOAD ON ALLOCATED GENERATION COSTS
EXHIBIT RDK-2: DETAILED ALLOCATION OF HERITAGE POOL AND INCREMENTAL GENERATION COSTS FOR 2011
(1)
D et DM
DH
DT
Residential
(2)
(3)
(4)
(5)
(6)
Allocated
Peak Allocation of
Heritage Loss Factor Load Factor Demand for Heritage Pool
Pool Load Percent of
for Gen. Gen. Alloc.
Costs
GWh
Cons.
Allocation
MW
(cts/kWh)
54,108
9.30%
47.20%
13,086
3.20
4
9.30%
51.70%
1
3.09
2,620
9.30%
80.00%
374
2.68
56,732
9.30%
48.11%
13,461
3.18
(7)
(8)
(9)
(10)
IncrePeak
mental Loss Factor Load Factor Demand for Allocation of
2011 Load
Percent of
for Gen. Gen. Alloc.
Incr. Costs
GWh
Cons.
Allocation
MW
(cts/kWh)
3,441
9.30%
47.20%
832
8.77
0
9.30%
51.70%
0
8.51
155
9.30%
80.00%
22
7.54
3,597
9.30%
48.05%
854
8.72
(11)
(12)
Average
Allocated
Gen. Costs
cts/kWh
3.54
3.35
2.95
3.51
Percent
Incr. over
Heritage
Pool
10.4%
8.3%
10.2%
10.4%
G
G9
M
Lighting
Commercial
12,171
1,053
25,044
543
38,811
9.20%
9.00%
8.50%
9.30%
8.74%
62.80%
68.70%
78.50%
86.80%
72.62%
2,212
175
3,642
71
6,101
2.88
2.79
2.67
2.62
2.74
600
53
525
18
1,196
9.20%
9.00%
8.50%
9.30%
8.89%
62.80%
68.70%
78.50%
86.80%
69.46%
109
9
76
2
197
8.02
7.81
7.52
7.40
7.78
3.12
3.03
2.77
2.77
2.89
8.4%
8.7%
3.7%
6.0%
5.5%
L
H
Special Contracts
Industrial
50,413
10
20,434
70,857
5.50%
6.80%
5.20%
5.41%
95.80%
76.90%
99.90%
96.94%
6,007
1
2,335
8,344
2.46
2.64
2.43
2.45
9,965
9,965
5.50%
6.80%
5.20%
5.50%
95.80%
76.90%
99.90%
95.80%
1,187
1,187
6.99
7.43
6.91
6.99
3.21
2.64
2.43
3.01
30.4%
0.0%
0.0%
22.8%
Total
166,400
Peak Loss Factor Total
7.52%
8.02%
68.07%
27,905
2.77
2.77
14,758
6.70%
7.25%
75.26%
2,239
7.48
7.48
3.15
13.9%
Sources:
(1) Exhibit RDK-1, column (2)
(2) Exhibit RDK-1, column (14)
(3) Exhibit RDK-1, column (15)
(4) Column (1) / 8.76 / Column (3)
(5) HQD Algorithm: Ci = CT * [UT * (1+Li)/(1+LT) + (1-UT) * UT/Ui * (1+Li)/(1+LT)]
Heritage Pool total rate based on R-3541-2004 HQD-12, Document 1, Table B
(6) Exhibit RDK-1 column (10) - column (1) on this page.
(7) Column (2)
(8) Column (3)
(9) Column (6) / 8.76 / Column (8)
(10) HQD Algorithm: Ci = CT * [UT * (1+Li)/(1+LT) + (1-UT) * UT/Ui * (1+Li)/(1+LT)]
Total incremental cost rate from Exhibit RDK-4
(11) Weighted average of columns (5) and (10)
(12) Column (11) / Column (5) - 1
Page 8 of 15
10:41 AM; 4/22/2005
INDUSTRIAL ECONOMICS, INCORPORATED
RDKnecht_Workpapers_R-3563-.xls; Incr Alloc 2012
IMPACT OF RISING INDUSTRIAL LOAD ON ALLOCATED GENERATION COSTS
EXHIBIT RDK-2: DETAILED ALLOCATION OF HERITAGE POOL AND INCREMENTAL GENERATION COSTS FOR 2012
(1)
D et DM
DH
DT
Residential
(2)
(3)
(4)
(5)
(6)
Allocated
Peak Allocation of
Heritage Loss Factor Load Factor Demand for Heritage Pool
Pool Load Percent of
for Gen. Gen. Alloc.
Costs
GWh
Cons.
Allocation
MW
(cts/kWh)
54,108
9.30%
47.20%
13,086
3.20
4
9.30%
51.70%
1
3.09
2,620
9.30%
80.00%
374
2.68
56,732
9.30%
48.11%
13,461
3.18
(7)
(8)
(9)
(10)
IncrePeak
mental Loss Factor Load Factor Demand for Allocation of
2012 Load
Percent of
for Gen. Gen. Alloc.
Incr. Costs
GWh
Cons.
Allocation
MW
(cts/kWh)
4,017
9.30%
47.20%
972
9.04
0
9.30%
51.70%
0
8.76
183
9.30%
80.00%
26
7.74
4,201
9.30%
48.06%
998
8.98
(11)
(12)
Average
Allocated
Gen. Costs
cts/kWh
3.61
3.42
3.01
3.58
Percent
Incr. over
Heritage
Pool
12.6%
10.5%
12.4%
12.6%
G
G9
M
Lighting
Commercial
12,171
1,053
25,044
543
38,811
9.20%
9.00%
8.50%
9.30%
8.74%
62.80%
68.70%
78.50%
86.80%
72.62%
2,212
175
3,642
71
6,101
2.88
2.79
2.67
2.62
2.74
768
68
861
26
1,722
9.20%
9.00%
8.50%
9.30%
8.84%
62.80%
68.70%
78.50%
86.80%
70.36%
140
11
125
3
279
8.24
8.02
7.72
7.59
7.96
3.20
3.11
2.84
2.84
2.96
11.0%
11.3%
6.3%
8.6%
8.1%
L
H
Special Contracts
Industrial
50,413
10
20,434
70,857
5.50%
6.80%
5.20%
5.41%
95.80%
76.90%
99.90%
96.94%
6,007
1
2,335
8,344
2.46
2.64
2.43
2.45
10,598
10,598
5.50%
6.80%
5.20%
5.50%
95.80%
76.90%
99.90%
95.80%
1,263
1,263
7.17
7.63
7.09
7.17
3.28
2.64
2.43
3.07
33.2%
0.0%
0.0%
25.0%
Total
166,400
Peak Loss Factor Total
7.52%
8.02%
68.07%
27,905
2.77
2.77
16,521
6.81%
7.36%
74.25%
2,540
7.71
7.71
3.21
16.1%
Sources:
(1) Exhibit RDK-1, column (2)
(2) Exhibit RDK-1, column (14)
(3) Exhibit RDK-1, column (15)
(4) Column (1) / 8.76 / Column (3)
(5) HQD Algorithm: Ci = CT * [UT * (1+Li)/(1+LT) + (1-UT) * UT/Ui * (1+Li)/(1+LT)]
Heritage Pool total rate based on R-3541-2004 HQD-12, Document 1, Table B
(6) Exhibit RDK-1 column (11) - column (1) on this page.
(7) Column (2)
(8) Column (3)
(9) Column (6) / 8.76 / Column (8)
(10) HQD Algorithm: Ci = CT * [UT * (1+Li)/(1+LT) + (1-UT) * UT/Ui * (1+Li)/(1+LT)]
Total incremental cost rate from Exhibit RDK-4
(11) Weighted average of columns (5) and (10)
(12) Column (11) / Column (5) - 1
Page 9 of 15
10:41 AM; 4/22/2005
INDUSTRIAL ECONOMICS, INCORPORATED
RDKnecht_Workpapers_R-3563-.xls; Incr Alloc 2013
IMPACT OF RISING INDUSTRIAL LOAD ON ALLOCATED GENERATION COSTS
EXHIBIT RDK-2: DETAILED ALLOCATION OF HERITAGE POOL AND INCREMENTAL GENERATION COSTS FOR 2013
(1)
D et DM
DH
DT
Residential
(2)
(3)
(4)
(5)
(6)
Allocated
Peak Allocation of
Heritage Loss Factor Load Factor Demand for Heritage Pool
Pool Load Percent of
for Gen. Gen. Alloc.
Costs
GWh
Cons.
Allocation
MW
(cts/kWh)
54,108
9.30%
47.20%
13,086
3.20
4
9.30%
51.70%
1
3.09
2,620
9.30%
80.00%
374
2.68
56,732
9.30%
48.11%
13,461
3.18
(7)
(8)
(9)
(10)
IncrePeak
mental Loss Factor Load Factor Demand for Allocation of
2013 Load
Percent of
for Gen. Gen. Alloc.
Incr. Costs
GWh
Cons.
Allocation
MW
(cts/kWh)
4,123
9.30%
47.20%
997
9.24
0
9.30%
51.70%
0
8.96
188
9.30%
80.00%
27
7.91
4,311
9.30%
48.06%
1,024
9.18
(11)
(12)
Average
Allocated
Gen. Costs
cts/kWh
3.63
3.44
3.03
3.60
Percent
Incr. over
Heritage
Pool
13.3%
11.1%
13.1%
13.3%
G
G9
M
Lighting
Commercial
12,171
1,053
25,044
543
38,811
9.20%
9.00%
8.50%
9.30%
8.74%
62.80%
68.70%
78.50%
86.80%
72.62%
2,212
175
3,642
71
6,101
2.88
2.79
2.67
2.62
2.74
856
76
1,038
30
1,999
9.20%
9.00%
8.50%
9.30%
8.83%
62.80%
68.70%
78.50%
86.80%
70.66%
156
13
151
4
323
8.42
8.20
7.89
7.76
8.13
3.25
3.15
2.88
2.88
3.00
12.6%
13.0%
7.8%
10.2%
9.6%
L
H
Special Contracts
Industrial
50,413
10
20,434
70,857
5.50%
6.80%
5.20%
5.41%
95.80%
76.90%
99.90%
96.94%
6,007
1
2,335
8,344
2.46
2.64
2.43
2.45
10,902
10,902
5.50%
6.80%
5.20%
5.50%
95.80%
76.90%
99.90%
95.80%
1,299
1,299
7.33
7.80
7.24
7.33
3.33
2.64
2.43
3.10
35.1%
0.0%
0.0%
26.5%
Total
166,400
Peak Loss Factor Total
7.52%
8.02%
68.07%
27,905
2.77
2.77
17,212
6.84%
7.38%
74.26%
2,646
7.88
7.88
3.25
17.3%
Sources:
(1) Exhibit RDK-1, column (2)
(2) Exhibit RDK-1, column (14)
(3) Exhibit RDK-1, column (15)
(4) Column (1) / 8.76 / Column (3)
(5) HQD Algorithm: Ci = CT * [UT * (1+Li)/(1+LT) + (1-UT) * UT/Ui * (1+Li)/(1+LT)]
Heritage Pool total rate based on R-3541-2004 HQD-12, Document 1, Table B
(6) Exhibit RDK-1 column (12) - column (1) on this page.
(7) Column (2)
(8) Column (3)
(9) Column (6) / 8.76 / Column (8)
(10) HQD Algorithm: Ci = CT * [UT * (1+Li)/(1+LT) + (1-UT) * UT/Ui * (1+Li)/(1+LT)]
Total incremental cost rate from Exhibit RDK-4
(11) Weighted average of columns (5) and (10)
(12) Column (11) / Column (5) - 1
Page 10 of 15
10:41 AM; 4/22/2005
INDUSTRIAL ECONOMICS, INCORPORATED
RDKnecht_Workpapers_R-3563-.xls; Incr Alloc 2014
IMPACT OF RISING INDUSTRIAL LOAD ON ALLOCATED GENERATION COSTS
EXHIBIT RDK-2: DETAILED ALLOCATION OF HERITAGE POOL AND INCREMENTAL GENERATION COSTS FOR 2014
(1)
D et DM
DH
DT
Residential
Allocated
Heritage
Pool Load
GWh
54,108
4
2,620
56,732
(2)
(3)
(4)
(5)
(6)
Loss
Allocation of
Factor Load Factor Peak Demand
Heritage
Percent of
for Gen. for Gen. Alloc.
Pool Costs
Cons.
Allocation
MW
(cts/kWh)
9.30%
47.20%
13,086
3.20
9.30%
51.70%
1
3.09
9.30%
80.00%
374
2.68
9.30%
48.11%
13,461
3.18
(7)
(8)
(9)
(10)
IncrePeak
mental Loss Factor Load Factor Demand for
2014 Load Percent of
for Gen. Gen. Alloc.
GWh
Cons.
Allocation
MW
4,459
9.30%
47.20%
1,079
0
9.30%
51.70%
0
204
9.30%
80.00%
29
4,664
9.30%
48.06%
1,108
(11)
(12)
Allocation
of Incr.
Costs
(cts/kWh)
9.45
9.16
8.07
9.39
Average
Allocated
Gen. Costs
cts/kWh
3.68
3.48
3.07
3.65
Percent
Incr. over
Heritage
Pool
14.8%
12.6%
14.6%
14.8%
G
G9
M
Lighting
Commercial
12,171
1,053
25,044
543
38,811
9.20%
9.00%
8.50%
9.30%
8.74%
62.80%
68.70%
78.50%
86.80%
72.62%
2,212
175
3,642
71
6,101
2.88
2.79
2.67
2.62
2.74
981
86
1,289
35
2,391
9.20%
9.00%
8.50%
9.30%
8.82%
62.80%
68.70%
78.50%
86.80%
70.96%
178
14
187
5
385
8.61
8.38
8.05
7.92
8.29
3.31
3.22
2.93
2.94
3.06
14.8%
15.2%
9.9%
12.3%
11.8%
L
H
Special Contracts
Industrial
50,413
10
20,434
70,857
5.50%
6.80%
5.20%
5.41%
95.80%
76.90%
99.90%
96.94%
6,007
1
2,335
8,344
2.46
2.64
2.43
2.45
11,366
11,366
5.50%
6.80%
5.20%
5.50%
95.80%
76.90%
99.90%
95.80%
1,354
1,354
7.48
7.97
7.39
7.48
3.38
2.64
2.43
3.15
37.5%
0.0%
0.0%
28.3%
Total
166,400
Peak Loss Factor Total
7.52%
8.02%
68.07%
27,905
2.77
2.77
18,422
6.89%
7.43%
73.87%
2,847
8.07
8.07
3.30
19.1%
Sources:
(1) Exhibit RDK-1, column (2)
(2) Exhibit RDK-1, column (14)
(3) Exhibit RDK-1, column (15)
(4) Column (1) / 8.76 / Column (3)
(5) HQD Algorithm: Ci = CT * [UT * (1+Li)/(1+LT) + (1-UT) * UT/Ui * (1+Li)/(1+LT)]
Heritage Pool total rate based on R-3541-2004 HQD-12, Document 1, Table B
(6) Exhibit RDK-1 column (13) - column (1) on this page.
(7) Column (2)
(8) Column (3)
(9) Column (6) / 8.76 / Column (8)
(10) HQD Algorithm: Ci = CT * [UT * (1+Li)/(1+LT) + (1-UT) * UT/Ui * (1+Li)/(1+LT)]
Total incremental cost rate from Exhibit RDK-4
(11) Weighted average of columns (5) and (10)
(12) Column (11) / Column (5) - 1
Page 11 of 15
10:41 AM; 4/22/2005
INDUSTRIAL ECONOMICS, INCORPORATED
RDKnecht_Workpapers_R-3563-.xls; Rolled-In Allocation
IMPACT OF RISING INDUSTRIAL LOAD ON ALLOCATED GENERATION COSTS
EXHIBIT RDK-3: ROLLED-IN ALLOCATION OF GENERATION COSTS
(1)
(2)
(3)
(4)
(5)
(6)
(7)
(8)
(9)
(10)
(11)
(12)
Rolled In
Gen Cost
Allocation
2005
3.267
3.152
2.728
3.242
Rolled In
Gen Cost
Allocation
2006
3.432
3.312
2.868
3.406
Rolled In
Gen Cost
Allocation
2007
3.446
3.327
2.882
3.420
Rolled In
Gen Cost
Allocation
2008
3.500
3.378
2.927
3.474
Rolled In
Gen Cost
Allocation
2009
3.550
3.427
2.970
3.523
Rolled In
Gen Cost
Allocation
2010
3.604
3.479
3.015
3.577
Rolled In
Gen Cost
Allocation
2011
3.654
3.528
3.057
3.627
Rolled In
Gen Cost
Allocation
2012
3.727
3.598
3.118
3.699
Rolled In
Gen Cost
Allocation
2013
3.765
3.635
3.151
3.737
Rolled In
Gen Cost
Allocation
2014
3.822
3.689
3.198
3.793
Loss Factor
Percent of
Cons.
9.30%
9.30%
9.30%
Load Factor
for Gen.
Allocation
47.20%
51.70%
80.00%
G
G9
M
Lighting
Commercial
9.20%
9.00%
8.50%
9.30%
62.80%
68.70%
78.50%
86.80%
2.938
2.848
2.723
2.667
2.794
3.088
2.993
2.863
2.805
2.937
3.101
3.007
2.876
2.818
2.951
3.150
3.054
2.921
2.862
2.997
3.196
3.099
2.964
2.905
3.041
3.245
3.146
3.009
2.949
3.087
3.290
3.190
3.051
2.990
3.130
3.355
3.253
3.112
3.050
3.193
3.390
3.287
3.144
3.081
3.226
3.441
3.336
3.191
3.127
3.274
L
H
Special Contracts
Industrial
5.50%
6.80%
5.20%
95.80%
76.90%
99.90%
2.510
2.696
2.477
2.501
2.640
2.835
2.605
2.630
2.652
2.848
2.618
2.643
2.694
2.893
2.659
2.685
2.734
2.935
2.699
2.725
2.776
2.980
2.740
2.767
2.814
3.021
2.778
2.805
2.870
3.081
2.833
2.861
2.900
3.113
2.863
2.891
2.944
3.160
2.906
2.934
2.821
2.821
2.961
2.961
2.973
2.973
3.019
3.019
3.061
3.061
3.108
3.108
3.151
3.151
3.214
3.214
3.247
3.247
3.295
3.295
D et DM
DH
DT
Residential
Total
Sources:
(1) Exhibit RDK-1, Column (14)
(2) Exhibit RDK-1, column (15)
(3) - (12) HQD Algorithm: Ci = CT * [UT * (1+Li)/(1+LT) + (1-UT) * UT/Ui * (1+Li)/(1+LT)]
Average rolled-in generation cost individual Exhibit RDK-2 sheets
Page 12 of 15
10:41 AM; 4/22/2005
INDUSTRIAL ECONOMICS, INCORPORATED
RDKnecht_Workpapers_R-3563-.xls; Incremental Generation Costs
IMPACT OF RISING INDUSTRIAL LOAD ON ALLOCATED GENERATION COSTS
EXHIBIT RDK-4: ESTIMATE OF INCREMENTAL GENERATION COST FOR HQD
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2,050
6.00
4,100
6.12
4,100
6.24
4,100
6.37
4,100
6.49
4,100
6.62
4,100
6.76
4,100
6.89
(2) HQ Production 20-Yr. Firm
Generation (GWh)
Price (cents/kWh)
2,175
5.50
2,900
5.61
2,900
5.72
2,900
5.84
2,900
5.95
2,900
6.07
2,900
6.19
2,900
6.32
(3) HQ Production 20-Yr. Seasonal
Generation (GWh)
Price (cents/kWh)
1,575
7.40
2,100
7.55
2,100
7.70
2,100
7.85
2,100
8.01
2,100
8.17
2,100
8.33
2,100
8.50
150
360
1,154
8.87
110
470
1,505
9.05
150
620
1,986
9.23
101
720
2,308
9.42
159
879
2,818
9.61
111
990
3,174
9.80
990
3,174
9.99
990
3,174
10.19
1,353
7.63
2,327
7.79
2,840
7.94
4,247
8.10
4,938
8.26
6,148
8.43
(1) Transcanada 20-Year Firm
Generation (GWh)
Price (cents/kWh)
(4) Wind Contracts
Incremental Capacity (MW)
Total Capacity MW
Generation (GWh)
Price (cents/kWh)
210
210
673
8.70
(5) Other
Generation (GWh)
Price (cents/kWh)
1,905
7.50
5,676
7.97
1,900
7.61
678
7.49
Incremental Generation
Incremental Price
1,905
7.50
6,350
8.05
8,854
6.85
11,283
6.73
Inflation Forecast:
2.00%
12,440
7.00
13,735
7.24
14,758
7.48
16,521
7.71
17,212
7.88
18,422
8.07
Sources:
(1) R-3541-2004 HQD-5, Document 3, plus inflation.
(2) R-3541-2004 HQD-5, Document 3, plus inflation.
(3) R-3541-2004 HQD-5, Document 3, plus inflation
(4) HQD Press Release dated 25 February 2005; cost of balancing of 0.9 cents per kWh
estimated by AQCIE/CIFQ based on information from HQD, plus inflation
(5) Generation volumes set to meet annual load growth not recognized from other sources.
Prices are set at HQD forecast for 2005, NYMEX futures through 2008; plus inflation thereafter
(6) Inflation forecast: Bank of Canada core inflation target.
Page 13 of 15
10:41 AM; 4/22/2005
INDUSTRIAL ECONOMICS, INCORPORATED
RDKnecht_Workpapers_R-3563-.xls; Graphs
IMPACT OF RISING INDUSTRIAL LOAD ON ALLOCATED GENERATION COSTS
Heritage Pool
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
Generation Cost Allocation
Incremental Method
Residential
Commercial
Rate L
Average
3.180
2.739
2.461
2.767
3.265
2.640
2.615
2.821
3.358
2.711
2.913
2.961
3.362
2.768
2.906
2.973
3.403
2.795
2.983
3.019
3.430
2.800
3.080
3.061
3.472
2.852
3.144
3.108
3.510
2.890
3.209
3.151
3.580
2.961
3.279
3.214
3.603
3.003
3.326
3.247
3.651
3.061
3.384
3.295
14.8%
11.8%
37.5%
19.1%
Rolled-In Method
Residential
Commercial
Rate L
Average
3.180
2.739
2.461
2.767
3.242
2.794
2.510
2.821
3.406
2.937
2.640
2.961
3.420
2.951
2.652
2.973
3.474
2.997
2.694
3.019
3.523
3.041
2.734
3.061
3.577
3.087
2.776
3.108
3.627
3.130
2.814
3.151
3.699
3.193
2.870
3.214
3.737
3.226
2.900
3.247
3.793
3.274
2.944
3.295
19.3%
19.5%
19.6%
19.1%
115.8%
(R/C Ratio)
3.454
3.120
2.743
3.567
3.166
2.765
3.640
3.214
2.798
3.716
3.259
2.829
3.797
3.324
2.885
3.852
3.358
2.904
3.919
3.409
2.943
133.2%
115.8%
Large Ind. Cross Subsidy Level (R-3492-2002; HQD 9 Document 1, page 13)
1.030
Rate L Incremental
2.850
3.028
3.373
Rate L Rolled In
2.850
2.906
3.057
Residential Incremental
2.563
2.632
2.707
1.11
0.806
3.365
3.071
2.710
Figure 1
Rate L Allocated Generation Costs -- Including Mandated Cross-Subsidy
4.00
3.80
Cents per kWh
3.60
3.40
3.20
3.00
Page 14 of 15
10:41 AM; 4/22/2005
Régie de l'énergie
Réponse - Question 8.1
(TWh)
1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Domestique et agricole
Chauffage des locaux
Chauffage de l'eau
Tarif BT (si applicable)
Autres
Total dom. et agri.
0.1
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.1
0.1
0.1
49.3
48.8
50.6
50.5
50.5
51.3
52.3
20.8
9.4
0.1
22.4
21.3
9.7
0.1
22.9
22.1
10.1
0.1
23.9
22.4
10.3
0.1
24.3
22.6
10.4
0.1
24.6
22.8
10.5
0.0
25.1
22.8
10.7
0.0
25.5
22.9
10.8
0.0
25.9
22.9
10.9
0.0
25.9
23.0
11.0
0.0
26.1
23.0
11.1
0.0
26.3
23.1
11.2
0.0
26.7
23.2
11.3
0.0
26.6
23.3
11.3
0.0
26.7
52.7
54.0
56.2
57.1
57.7
58.4
59.0
59.6
59.7
60.1
60.3
60.9
61.0
61.4
6.4
1.4
1.2
21.7
6.7
1.5
1.2
22.5
6.9
1.5
1.2
22.3
7.0
1.5
1.2
23.0
7.0
1.5
0.8
23.2
7.2
1.5
0.3
23.6
7.3
1.5
0.0
23.9
7.2
1.5
0.0
24.2
7.1
1.5
0.0
24.3
7.0
1.5
0.0
24.7
6.9
1.5
0.0
25.0
6.9
1.5
0.0
25.3
6.9
1.5
0.0
25.6
6.9
1.5
0.0
25.8
Général et institutionnel
Chauffage des locaux
Chauffage de l'eau
Tarif BT
Autres
1.0
1.4
1.4
1.4
0.9
0.7
1.1
28.3
29.1
29.3
29.4
29.4
30.1
30.9
30.7
31.8
32.0
32.8
32.5
32.6
32.7
32.9
32.9
33.2
33.4
33.8
34.0
34.2
Tarif BT
Autres
0.2
7.1
0.3
7.2
0.3
7.3
0.3
7.5
0.2
7.6
0.2
8.0
0.3
9.3
0.3
9.2
0.3
9.5
0.3
10.4
0.3
10.4
0.1
10.6
0.0
10.8
0.0
10.9
0.0
11.1
0.0
11.2
0.0
11.3
0.0
11.5
0.0
11.6
0.0
11.7
0.0
11.9
Total PME
7.3
7.5
7.6
7.8
7.8
8.2
9.5
9.5
9.8
10.7
10.7
10.7
10.8
10.9
11.1
11.2
11.3
11.5
11.6
11.7
11.9
Alumineries
Pâtes et papier
Tarif BT (si applicable)
Autres
15.7
15.4
0.0
18.2
15.9
16.6
0.0
19.3
16.0
16.5
0.0
19.7
16.2
17.3
0.0
19.9
16.4
17.3
0.0
20.5
16.6
18.3
0.0
20.2
16.7
18.3
0.0
21.4
17.2
17.9
0.0
21.7
18.3
18.7
0.0
21.8
20.6
19.4
0.0
21.9
16.9
19.4
0.0
22.1
21.3
19.8
0.0
22.2
23.9
19.8
0.0
22.3
24.2
20.1
0.0
23.1
24.5
20.2
0.0
24.0
24.7
20.3
0.0
24.5
24.8
20.4
0.0
24.7
24.8
20.6
0.0
24.9
24.8
20.7
0.0
25.2
24.8
20.8
0.0
25.4
24.8
21.0
0.0
25.6
Total Grande ent.
49.3
51.8
52.2
53.3
54.2
55.2
56.4
56.8
58.8
61.9
58.4
63.3
66.0
67.3
68.7
69.5
69.9
70.3
70.8
71.0
71.4
Réseaux municipaux
Éclairage public
Transport public
Autres
3.5
0.7
0.3
0.1
3.5
0.6
0.3
0.4
3.6
0.6
0.3
0.8
3.7
0.5
0.3
0.8
3.7
0.5
0.3
0.2
3.8
0.5
0.3
0.0
3.8
0.5
0.3
0.0
3.9
0.5
0.3
0.0
4.0
0.6
0.3
0.0
4.1
0.6
0.3
0.0
4.2
0.6
0.3
0.0
4.3
0.6
0.3
0.0
4.3
0.6
0.3
0.0
4.4
0.6
0.4
0.0
4.5
0.6
0.4
0.0
4.6
0.6
0.4
0.0
4.7
0.6
0.4
0.0
4.8
0.6
0.4
0.0
4.9
0.6
0.4
0.0
4.9
0.6
0.4
0.0
5.0
0.6
0.4
0.0
Total Autres
4.6
4.8
5.3
5.3
4.7
4.6
4.7
4.8
4.8
4.9
5.0
5.1
5.2
5.3
5.4
5.5
5.6
5.7
5.8
5.9
6.0
Total Géné et Inst.
Industriel PME
Industriel Grande Entreprise
Autres
Ventes totales prévues
Ajustements comptables
Normalisation*
Autres ajustements**
Rapport annuel
138.7 142.0 144.9 146.4 146.7 149.4 153.9 154.5 159.2 165.7 164.0 169.3 173.1 175.3 177.7 178.8 180.1 181.2 182.9 183.6 184.8
0.1
-0.4
0.0
0.0
-0.1
0.0
0.1
0.4
0.0
0.0
-0.9
0.0
-0.8
3.6
1.1
0.1
2.3
0.0
0.4
0.7
0.0
-0.1
2.4
0.0
0.4
0.6
0.0
0.0
-1.4
0.0
139.0 142.0 144.5 147.3 142.8 147.0 152.8 152.2 158.3 167.1
* Selon nouvelle période climatique 1971-2000.
** Corrections pour verglas de 1998.
Note : données non corrigées pour l'effet des années bissextiles (29e jour de février).
Note : données prévisionnelles de la révision d'août 2004.