EXTERNE NATIONAL IMPLEMENTATION SPAIN CIEMAT Contract JOS3-CT95-0010 FINAL REPORT December 1997 Research funded in part by THE EUROPEAN COMMISSION in the framework of the Non Nuclear Energy Programme JOULE III ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS The authors would like to thank the many people who have contributed to the preparation of this Spanish national report. We would like to thank ENCASUR for their provision of data on coal mining, the people at the Central Nuclear de Valdecaballeros for facilitating information on the Valdecaballeros site, Jesús Olaso and Guillermo Shaw from ENAGAS, for their data on the Algerian gas pipeline, the Departments of Renewable Energy and of Environmental Impact of Energy at CIEMAT, for their help with the biomass and wind fuel cycles and with atmospheric dispersion modelling, the Spanish Ministries of Agriculture and Labour, for their data on crops and occupational accident rates, and the Consorci pel Tractament de Residus Solids Urbans del Maresme, for their data on the waste incineration cycle. The authors would also like to thank all the partners of the ExternE National Implementation Project, for their comments and helpful discussions on how to calculate and best present the results obtained, as well as the ExternE Core Project for the methodological framework. Finally, we would like to thank the European Commission, for the financial support of the project from the JOULE Programme. LIST OF CONTRIBUTORS CIEMAT Mikel Aróstegui Julián Leal Yolanda Lechón Pedro Linares Rosa M. Sáez Manuel Varela TGI Arturo Alarcón ICAEN Salvador Salat Neus Sumarroca (ENTORN) IIT Julio Montes (for the most part of the project, working in CIEMAT) Lucía Muñoz Andrés Ramos CONTENTS 0. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY.......................................................................................................................... 1 0.1 INTRODUCTION........................................................................................................................................... 1 0.1.1 Background and objectives.............................................................................................................. 1 0.1.2 The Spanish National Implementation............................................................................................. 2 0.2 METHODOLOGY.......................................................................................................................................... 3 0.3 OVERVIEW OF THE FUEL CYCLES ASSESSED ................................................................................................ 4 0.3.1 Coal fuel cycle ................................................................................................................................. 4 0.3.2 Natural gas fuel cycle ...................................................................................................................... 5 0.3.3 Biomass/lignites fuel cycle............................................................................................................... 5 0.3.4 Wind fuel cycle................................................................................................................................. 6 0.3.5 Waste incineration ........................................................................................................................... 6 0.4 AGGREGATION ........................................................................................................................................... 7 0.5 POLICY CASE STUDY ................................................................................................................................... 8 0.6 CONCLUSIONS ............................................................................................................................................ 9 1. INTRODUCTION...................................................................................................................................... 11 1.1 OBJECTIVES OF THE PROJECT.................................................................................................................... 11 1.2 PUBLICATIONS FROM THE PROJECT........................................................................................................... 12 1.3 STRUCTURE OF THIS REPORT .................................................................................................................... 13 1.4 THE SPANISH NATIONAL IMPLEMENTATION ............................................................................................. 13 1.4.1 Description of the country ............................................................................................................. 13 1.4.2 Overview of the Spanish energy sector .......................................................................................... 15 1.4.3 Justification of the selection of fuel cycles..................................................................................... 17 1.4.4 Related national studies................................................................................................................. 19 2. METHODOLOGY..................................................................................................................................... 21 2.1 APPROACHES USED FOR EXTERNALITY ANALYSIS ................................................................................... 21 2.2 GUIDING PRINCIPLES IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE EXTERNE METHODOLOGY ...................................... 23 2.3 DEFINING THE BOUNDARIES OF THE ANALYSIS ........................................................................................ 24 2.3.1 Stages of the fuel chain .................................................................................................................. 25 2.3.2 Location of fuel chain activities..................................................................................................... 25 2.3.3 Identification of fuel chain technologies........................................................................................ 26 2.3.4 Identification of fuel chain burdens ............................................................................................... 27 2.3.5 Identification of impacts ................................................................................................................ 27 2.3.6 Valuation criteria........................................................................................................................... 28 2.3.7 Spatial limits of the impact analysis .............................................................................................. 28 2.3.8 Temporal limits of the impact analysis .......................................................................................... 29 2.4 ANALYSIS OF IMPACT PATHWAYS ............................................................................................................ 29 2.4.1 Prioritisation of impacts ................................................................................................................ 30 2.4.2 Description of priority impact pathways ....................................................................................... 31 2.4.3 Quantification of burdens .............................................................................................................. 34 2.4.4 Description of the receiving environment...................................................................................... 35 2.4.5 Quantification of impacts............................................................................................................... 36 2.4.6 Economic valuation ....................................................................................................................... 38 2.4.7 Assessment of uncertainty .............................................................................................................. 38 2.5 PRIORITY IMPACTS ASSESSED IN THE EXTERNE PROJECT ........................................................................ 39 2.5.1 Fossil technologies ........................................................................................................................ 39 2.5.2 Nuclear technologies ..................................................................................................................... 40 2.5.3 Renewable technologies................................................................................................................. 40 2.5.4 Related issues................................................................................................................................. 41 2.6 SUMMARY ................................................................................................................................................ 41 3. COAL FUEL CYCLE................................................................................................................................ 43 3.1 DEFINITION OF THE COAL FUEL CYCLE, TECHNOLOGY AND SITE ............................................................... 43 3.1.1 Technology description.................................................................................................................. 43 3.1.2 Site description .............................................................................................................................. 49 3.2 OVERVIEW OF BURDENS ........................................................................................................................... 57 3.2.1 Atmospheric emissions................................................................................................................... 57 3.2.2 Liquid effluents .............................................................................................................................. 57 3.2.3 Solid wastes ................................................................................................................................... 57 3.2.4 Occupational accidents.................................................................................................................. 58 3.3 SELECTION OF PRIORITY IMPACTS ............................................................................................................. 58 3.4 QUANTIFICATION OF IMPACTS AND DAMAGES .......................................................................................... 59 3.4.1 Coal extraction .............................................................................................................................. 59 3.4.2 Coal transport................................................................................................................................ 60 3.4.3 Limestone production .................................................................................................................... 60 3.4.4 Limestone transport ....................................................................................................................... 61 3.4.5 Power generation........................................................................................................................... 61 3.4.6 Waste disposal ............................................................................................................................... 62 3.5 SUMMARY AND INTERPRETATION OF RESULTS ......................................................................................... 63 4. NATURAL GAS FUEL CYCLE............................................................................................................... 65 4.1 DEFINITION OF THE NATURAL GAS FUEL CYCLE, TECHNOLOGY AND SITE .................................................. 65 4.1.1 Technology description.................................................................................................................. 65 4.1.2 Site description .............................................................................................................................. 69 4.2 OVERVIEW OF BURDENS ........................................................................................................................... 69 4.2.1 Atmospheric emissions................................................................................................................... 69 4.2.2 Solid wastes ................................................................................................................................... 70 4.3 SELECTION OF PRIORITY IMPACTS ............................................................................................................. 70 4.4 QUANTIFICATION OF IMPACTS AND DAMAGES .......................................................................................... 71 4.4.1 Extraction ...................................................................................................................................... 71 4.4.2 Transport ....................................................................................................................................... 71 4.4.3 Power generation........................................................................................................................... 72 4.5 SUMMARY AND INTERPRETATION OF RESULTS ......................................................................................... 73 5. BIOMASS/LIGNITES FUEL CYCLE..................................................................................................... 75 5.1 DEFINITION OF THE BIOMASS/LIGNITES FUEL CYCLE, TECHNOLOGY AND SITE ........................................... 75 5.1.1 Technology description.................................................................................................................. 75 5.1.2 Site description .............................................................................................................................. 82 5.2 OVERVIEW OF BURDENS ........................................................................................................................... 90 5.2.1 Atmospheric emissions................................................................................................................... 90 5.2.2 Liquid effluents .............................................................................................................................. 90 5.2.3 Solid wastes ................................................................................................................................... 91 5.2.4 Occupational accidents.................................................................................................................. 91 5.3 SELECTION OF PRIORITY IMPACTS ............................................................................................................. 91 5.4 QUANTIFICATION OF IMPACTS AND DAMAGES .......................................................................................... 92 5.4.1 Lignite extraction........................................................................................................................... 92 5.4.2 Fuel transport ................................................................................................................................ 93 5.4.3 Limestone extraction and transport ............................................................................................... 94 5.4.4 Power generation........................................................................................................................... 94 5.5 SUMMARY AND INTERPRETATION OF RESULTS ......................................................................................... 96 6. WIND FUEL CYCLE ................................................................................................................................ 99 6.1 DEFINITION OF THE WIND FUEL CYCLE, TECHNOLOGY AND SITE ............................................................... 99 6.1.1 Technology description.................................................................................................................. 99 6.1.2 Site description ............................................................................................................................ 101 6.2 OVERVIEW OF BURDENS ......................................................................................................................... 102 6.3 SELECTION OF PRIORITY IMPACTS ........................................................................................................... 103 6.4 QUANTIFICATION OF IMPACTS AND DAMAGES ........................................................................................ 104 6.4.1 Turbine construction.................................................................................................................... 104 6.4.2 Turbine operation ........................................................................................................................ 104 6.5 SUMMARY AND INTERPRETATION OF RESULTS ....................................................................................... 106 7. WASTE INCINERATION ...................................................................................................................... 109 7.1 DEFINITION OF THE WASTE INCINERATION CYCLE, TECHNOLOGY AND SITE ............................................ 109 7.1.1 Technology description................................................................................................................ 109 7.1.2 Site description ............................................................................................................................ 114 7.2 OVERVIEW OF BURDENS ......................................................................................................................... 123 7.2.1 Atmospheric emissions................................................................................................................. 123 7.3 SELECTION OF PRIORITY IMPACTS ........................................................................................................... 124 7.4 QUANTIFICATION OF IMPACTS AND DAMAGES ........................................................................................ 125 7.4.1 MSW transport............................................................................................................................. 125 7.4.2 Waste treatment ........................................................................................................................... 125 7.4.3 Ash transport ............................................................................................................................... 126 7.4.4 Impacts and damages related to waste treatment ........................................................................ 127 7.5 SUMMARY AND INTERPRETATION OF RESULTS ....................................................................................... 128 8. AGGREGATION ..................................................................................................................................... 131 8.1 8.2 8.3 9. DESCRIPTION OF THE NATIONAL ELECTRICITY SECTOR ........................................................................... 131 AGGREGATION METHODS ....................................................................................................................... 132 RESULTS................................................................................................................................................. 133 POLICY CASE STUDY .......................................................................................................................... 139 9.1 INTRODUCTION....................................................................................................................................... 139 9.2 POLICY CASE STUDY DESCRIPTION ......................................................................................................... 140 9.3 MODEL DESCRIPTION.............................................................................................................................. 140 9.3.1 System Description ...................................................................................................................... 142 9.3.2 Emissions modelling .................................................................................................................... 142 9.3.3 Model Formulation ...................................................................................................................... 143 9.3.4 Implementation ............................................................................................................................ 146 9.4 CASE STUDY: SPANISH POWER SYSTEM ................................................................................................. 147 9.5 EXTERNALITIES OF THE SPANISH ELECTRICAL SYSTEM .......................................................................... 148 9.5.1 Fossil fuels power units ............................................................................................................... 148 9.5.2 Nuclear units................................................................................................................................ 154 9.5.3 Hydro units .................................................................................................................................. 155 9.5.4 Other units ................................................................................................................................... 155 9.6 ANALYSIS OF THE OPERATION OF THE SPANISH POWER SYSTEM ............................................................ 155 9.7 RESULTS AND CONCLUSIONS .................................................................................................................. 157 10. CONCLUSIONS ...................................................................................................................................... 163 11. REFERENCES ......................................................................................................................................... 165 0. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 0.1 Introduction 0.1.1 Background and objectives The use of energy causes damage to a wide range of receptors, including human health, natural ecosystems, and the built environment. Such damages are referred to as external costs, as they are not reflected in the market price of energy. These externalities have been traditionally ignored. However, there is a growing interest towards the internalisation of externalities to assist policy and decision making. Several European and international organisms have expressed their interest in this issue, as may be seen in the 5th Environmental Action Programme, in the White Paper on Growth, competitiveness and employment, or the White Paper on Energy, all from the European Commission. This interest has led to the development of internationally agreed tools for the evaluation of externalities, and to its application to different energy sources. Within the European Commission R&D Programme Joule II, the ExternE Project developed and demonstrated a unified methodology for the quantification of the externalities of different power generation technologies. Under Joule III, this project has been continued with three distinguished major tasks: ExternE Core for the further development and updating of the methodology, ExternE National Implementation to create an EU-wide data set and ExternETransport for the application of the ExternE methodology to energy related impacts from transport. The current report is the result of the ExternE National implementation project for Spain. The objective of the ExternE National Implementation project is to establish a comprehensive and comparable set of data on externalities of power generation for all EU member states and Norway. The tasks include the application of the ExternE methodology to the most important fuel cycles for each country as well as to update the already existing results; to aggregate these site- and technology-specific results to more general figures. For countries already involved in Joule II, these data have been applied to concrete policy questions, to indicate how these data could feed into decision and policy making processes. Other objectives were the dissemination of results in the different countries, and the creation of a network of scientific institutes familiar with the ExternE methodology, data, and their application. The National Implementation project has generated a large set of comparable and validated results, covering more than 60 cases, for 15 countries and 11 fuel cycles. A wide range of technologies have been analysed, including fossil fuels, nuclear and renewables. Fuel cycle 1 ExternE National Implementation. Spain analyses have been carried out, determining the environmental burdens and impacts of all stages. Therefore, besides from the externalities estimated, the project offers a large database of environmental aspects of the fuel cycles studied. An aggregation exercise has also been carried out, to extend the analysis to the whole electricity system of each of the participant countries. The exercise has proved to be very useful, although the results must be considered in most cases as a first approach, which should be carefully revised before being taken into consideration. In spite of all the uncertainties related to the externalities assessment, the output of the project might prove to be very useful for policy-making, both at the national and EU level. The results obtained provide a good basis to start the study of the internalisation of the external costs of energy, which has been frequently cited as one of the objectives of EU energy policy. Other possibility is to use the results for comparative purposes. The site sensitivity of the externalities might encourage the application of the methodology for the optimisation of site selection processes, or for cost-benefit analysis of the introduction of cleaner technologies. The usefulness of the application for policy making has been demonstrated through the analysis of a wide variety of decision making issues carried out by those teams already involved in ExternE under Joule II. Further work is needed, however, to remove as much uncertainties as possible of the methodology, and to improve aggregation methods for electricity systems. These improvements are required if externality values are to be used directly for policy measures, not only as background information.. The acceptability of these measures will depend on the credibility of the externality values. The current report is to be seen as part of a larger set of publications. The results of these ExternE projects is published and made available in three different reports and publications. The current report covers the results of the national implementation for Spain, and is published by CIEMAT. It contains all the details of the application of the methodology to the coal, natural gas, biomass/lignites, wind and waste incineration cycles, aggregation, and a study of the introduction of externalities into the electrictiy dispatching system, as an illustration of the use of these results. The methodology is detailed in a separate report, published by the EC. 0.1.2 The Spanish National Implementation Spain is placed at the Southwestern corner of Europe, covering the major part of the Iberian peninsula. Its total area is some 504,000 km2, and its population is near 39 million, mainly concentrated near Madrid, and along the coast. The Spanish energy system is characterized by the use of low quality national coal (because of the importance of mining as support of local economies in some areas), high dependence of fossil fuels, a nuclear moratorium, a variable participation of hydro, the development of the infrastructure for natural gas transport, and an important increase of cogeneration and 2 Executive Summary renewables, although this growth is not enough to reach a significant share of the energy system. Electricity generation in Spain is produced mainly from nuclear, hydro, and national coal. for the next years, it is expected that gas contribution will have a significant increase, as well as renewables. National coal use will also be increased, although with cleaner generation technologies. This has conditioned the selection of the fuel cycles covered in this study. These fuel cycles have been selected according to their representativeness for the future Spanish energy system, so that the use of results for planning purposes would be rather straightforward. Therefore, the fuel cycles assessed are: national coal burnt with clean technology, natural gas, biomass cofired with lignites, wind, and waste incineration. This latter one, in spite of its very small contribution to the national energy sector, has become a hot issue in Spain, due to its possible impacts on human health, and so it was considered that the assessment of its externalities would be very useful. The choice of “future” fuel cycles has also determined that most of the fuel cycles assessed are based on hypothetical power plants, since the existing ones are based mostly on “old” technologies. These existing power plants have been assessed for the aggregation exercise. 0.2 Methodology The methodology used for the assessment of the externalities of the fuel cycles selected has been the one developed within the ExternE Project (EC, 1995). It is a bottom-up methodology, with a site-specific approach, that is, it considers the effect of an additional fuel cycle, located in a specific place. To allow comparison to be made between different fuel cycles, it is necessary to observe the following principles: Transparency, to show precisely how the work was done, the uncertainty associated to the results, and the extent to which the external costs of any fuel cycle have been fully quantified. Consistency, with respect to the boundaries placed on the system in question, to allow valid comparison to be made between different fuel cycles and different types of impact within a fuel cycle. Comprehensiveness, to consider all burdens and impacts of a fuel cycle, even though many may be not investigated in detail. For those analysed in detail, it is important that the assessment is not arbitrarily truncated. These characteristics should be present along the stages of the methodology, namely: site and technology characterization, identification of burdens and impacts, prioritization of impacts, quantification, and economic valuation. 3 ExternE National Implementation. Spain Quantification of impacts is achieved through the damage function, or impact pathway approach. This is a series of logical steps, which trace the impact from the activity that creates it to the damage it produces, independently for each impact and activity considered, as required by the marginal approach. The underlying principle for the economic valuation is to obtain the willingness to pay of the affected individuals to avoid a negative impact, or the willingness to accept the opposite. Several methods are available for this, which will be adopted depending on the case. 0.3 Overview of the fuel cycles assessed 0.3.1 Coal fuel cycle As mentioned before, one of the fuel cycles to be assessed is national coal burnt with clean technology. The reference technology for this fuel cycle is a hypothetical 1050 MW power plant, which would be installed in Valdecaballeros, in Southwestern Spain. This hypothetical power plant would be based on 1990 technology, and would be equipped with ESP, FGD, and low NOx burners. Coal would come from Puertollano coal mines, some 200 km away from the plant site. The major burdens identified for this fuel cycle are the atmospheric emissions of pollutants from the mining and power generation stage, liquid effluents and solid wastes from mining and power generation, and occupational accidents from the mining stage. The major air pollutants are SO2, NOx,and CO2. TSP emissions are also important, specially due to the fugitive dust released in the coal extraction stage. When selecting the priority impacts, those considered most relevant are those caused by the atmospheric emissions from the power generation stage on human health, materials, crops and ecosystems, and global warming. Although TSP emissions from the mining stage are quite large, it is expected that their impact will not be too high, since they are emitted near ground level, and so they are quickly deposited. Liquid effluents both from the mining and power generation are expected to have significant effects. However, their quantification is not yet possible. As might have been expected, the major damages of this fuel cycle are on human health, due to the air pollutant emissions, specially SO2 and NOx and CO2. They amount to some 25 mECU/kWh (plus 4 to 141 mECU/kWh for global warming). Upstream impacts are smaller, although the occupational accidents of the mining are also significant (2.4 mECU/kWh). The total damages are quite high, from 33 to 172 mECU/kWh, with a best estimate of 48 to 77 mECU/kWh, what is at least of the same order of magnitude as the private generation costs., even though the technology used is quite clean, and the site chosen is not highly populated. Therefore, it may be seen that even environmentally-advanced, standard technologies for coal combustion are not clean enough, if coal quality is not good. Changes to fluidized-bed combustion or gasification cycles are required to lower the damages to reasonable terms. 4 Executive Summary 0.3.2 Natural gas fuel cycle The technology analyzed for this fuel cycle will be a combined cycle with gas turbine. The fuel used will be Algerian natural gas, brought by pipeline, and the power plant will have an installed power of 624 MW. Again, this is a hypothetical power plant sited in the same place as the coal fuel cycle, Valdecaballeros.. All stages of the fuel cycle have been assessed, except for the gas extraction in Algeria, for which no data were available. It has to be noted that the gas fuel cycle is rather clean compared to other fossil fuel cycles. The only major burdens are the atmospheric emissions caused by the power generation. The burdens of the gas transport by pipeline are almost negligible. Of the air pollutants, the major ones are NOx and CO2. There are also some SO2 emissions, because of the use of oil as a backup fuel. However, emissions are very small. The major impacts of this fuel cycle, thus, are those caused by air pollutants on human health, and also the global warming impacts. In the end, it results that damages range from 5.1 to 60.2 mECU/kWh, with a best estimate of 11 to 22 mECU/kWh, due mainly to the global warming impacts. These damages are almost an order of magnitude lower than those of the coal fuel cycle, for example, mainly due to the low pollutant emission rates. The impacts of upstream stages are also quite small, in spite of the long distance from which gas is transported. This might be explained by the good quality of the pipeline used. 0.3.3 Biomass/lignites fuel cycle The interest of assessing this fuel cycle is to show how the environmental advantages of biomass (negligible sulphur content, carbon neutral) are a good possibility for burning lowquality, high-sulphur lignites, on an environmentally friendly way, while still using indigenous energy sources. This fuel cycle will be based on a hypothetical 20 MW circulating fluidized-bed-combustion power plant, which would be installed near Soria, in inner Spain. Fuel contribution will be 40% of forest residues from the area, and 60% black lignites from Teruel, 200 km away. The major burdens of this fuel cycle arise from the power generation stage, from the atmospheric emissions (mainly SO2 and CO2) generated in it. Lignite extraction also produces significant burdens, such as atmospheric emissions and occupational accidents. No burdens have been taken into account from the forest residues collection, since it has been considered that this activity would have taken place even if the fuel cycle was not implemented. Due to the relatively low density of the fuels used, road transport is also an important burden for this fuel cycle. 5 ExternE National Implementation. Spain The major impact expected is that caused by the atmospheric emissions on human health, and on global warming. Regarding the latter, the CO2 fixed previously by biomass has been substracted from the power generation emissions. Another important impact is that caused by the washing of lignites on water quality, although it is quite difficult to assess. The resulting damages show the advantage of co-firing biomass and lignites in an environmentally-advanced technology, such as CFBC. In spite of the very high sulphur content of the lignites used, both the contribution of biomass and the fluidized bed reduce considerably SO2 damages. Total damages amount to 17 to 127 mECU/kWh, with a best estimate of 29 to 52 mECU/kWh, which are lower, for example, than those of the coal fuel cycle, which used better quality coal. 0.3.4 Wind fuel cycle Wind energy is one of the most promising renewable energies in Spain. Its fuel cycle is among the most environmentally-friendly, provided that its siting is done with caution. The wind farm analyzed here is Cabo Vilano, a 3 MW wind farm sited near Camariñas, in Northwestern Spain. It has 20 MADE AE/20 wind turbines. These are three-bladed, 150 kW turbines, with stall control, asynchronous generator, and steel, cylindrical towers. Since for this fuel cycle impacts are expected to be distributed along the entire life cycle, not accounting for stages other than operation would lead to a large underestimation of impacts. For example, atmospheric emissions do not appear in the operational stage, but in the manufacturing of the turbines, and are likely to be of the same magnitude as impacts more characteristic of the wind fuel cycle, such as noise and visual amenity. Hence, the relevant burdens of the fuel cycle include both those coming from the farm operation, such as noise and visual amenity, and from turbine manufacturing, such as energy use. Their impacts are not expected to be significant. Noise, which is always identified as a major burden of wind energy, is not so here, as the farm is sited far from population centres. Visual impact is also reduced due to this reason. Impacts on birds, which have also been detected sometimes, have been found to be negligible, since the resident bird species seem to have got used to the farm. As a result, the total damages of the wind fuel cycle are very small, around 1.8 mECU/kWh. And most of these damages come from occupational accidents, due to the large distance traveled by the O&M staff. Both noise and visual impacts have been estimated to be negligible. 0.3.5 Waste incineration The waste incineration process assessed is based on a real MSW plant located in Mataró, near Barcelona. Residues are recycled and composted, and the refuse is burnt for electricty production, generating some 65,000 MWh per year. The amount of residues treated yearly is around 170,000 t. 6 Executive Summary Residues are burnt in a travelling grate, and the flue gas is cleaned to remove chloride, sulphur, heavy metals, and particulates. The most important burdens of the waste incineration cycle are the atmospheric emissions generated in the power generation stage. Of important concern within these emissions are the dioxins and furans, whose effects on human health are still in dispute. Road use is also a relevant burden, because of the low density of the fuel used. Therefore, the major impacts selected are those produced by atmospheric emissions. Ozone impacts are expected to be high, because of NOx and VOC emissions, the high insolation of the area, and its urban environment. However, no ozone dispersion model is available, so an approximation has to be used. The total damages amount from 26 to 147 mECU/kWh, with a best estimate of 38 to 62 mECU/kWh, mostly due to CO2, and to a lesser extent, to NOx emissions. According to the estimations, the effects of dioxins and furans are very small. Damages per t of pollutant emitted are rather large, due to its location, very near to a large population centre. However, it has to be noted that this is usually the case for MSW incinerators. So the only way of reducing damages is to reduce the emission factors, by improving the environmental performance of the technology. It has to be remarked that these damages are not net damages. Since MSW should be disposed of anyway, a comparison with the damages caused by alternative disposal schemes should be carried out. 0.4 Aggregation Spanish electricity comes mainly from three sources: nuclear, hydro, and fossil fuels. This causes some problems for the aggregation of the external costs of the whole electricity sector. First, nuclear and hydro fuel cycles have not been deeply studied yet, so the values available are not as reliable as for other fuel cycles, even less transferable to Spanish conditions. Second, although the estimation of the damages of an individual fossil power plant is not so complex, the addition of the damages caused by various plants poses a lot of difficulties, because of the site-specificity of results, and the alterations produced by background pollutant emissions. Therefore, the simple approach proposed of extrapolating results from one power plant to the whole electricity sector is not considered reasonable. Several fossil plants have been assessed, then, and their results extrapolated only to the nearest plants. These results have been calculated in terms of ECU per t of pollutant emitted, so that they are independent of fuel type and technology. By introducing these aspects, the damages per kWh for all the fossil power plants in Spain have been estimated. 7 ExternE National Implementation. Spain Only the generation stage has been assessed, and of it, only health damages, since they account for more than 90% of the damages (excluding global warming), and so the figures obtained may be considered representative of the whole fuel cycle. Since health damages are linear with regard to pollutant exposure, no problems arise from their straight addition. Global warming damages have been estimated separately because of the larger uncertainty associated to them. Damages for nuclear and hydro have been extrapolated directly from the values obtained in other countries within the ExternE Project, and so the uncertainty lied to them should be larger. Because of all the problems and uncertainty sources identified, the results may only be regarded as approximate, indicative figures. However, these figures are significant, more than 106 million Ptas per year (excluding global warming), so they should at least be kept in mind for policy making. This is more than 1% of the Spanish GDP, or around 47% of the electricity sector turnover in 1996. 0.5 Policy case study The objective of the policy case study undertaken is to include the results obtained in the aggregation exercise into an electricity network exploitation model. This model provides the minimum variable cost for the exploitation of the Spanish electricity network, subject to operating constraints such as generation, transmission, and national fuel consumption quotas. The model has been adapted to enable the introduction of externalities into the final decision process. The damages per kWh for each power plant in the Spanish electricity network were calculated in the aggregation exercise. These damages have been introduced in the optimization model, and so the minimum variable social cost for the Spanish electricity system has been obtained. Various cases have been analyzed: the current situation, the introduction of externalities (with and without national coal quotas) and a limited introduction of externalities (considering only the damages produced within Spain, which account for some 30% of the total damages). Results show that, when externalities are introduced, and the social cost is minimized, national coal would be removed from the system, because of its environmental disadvantages, and substituted by fuel-oil and gas. However, this is only achieved if the compulsory consumption of national coal is eliminated. If this constraint is maintained, the introduction of externalities produces no significant effects, and so their consideration may not be worthwhile. In fact, the removal of the constraint would produce by itself a large reduction in social costs, without taking into account externalities for the optimization, simply by changing national coal for imported coal. Nevertheless, it has to be remarked that here only environmental externalities have been assesssed. National coal and lignites have also several advantages, such as their contribution to energy security, and their support of local economies in mining regions. Therefore, in order 8 Executive Summary to decide whether the constraint mentioned above is justified or not, a full analysis of these aspects should be carried out. 0.6 Conclusions The major conclusion of this study may be that, in spite of all the limitations inherent to it, such as uncertainty, or lack of scientific knowledge in some fields, a large set of values for the externalities of electricity generation has been calculated, and therefore a first attempt towards the integration of environmental aspects into energy policy may be carried out. The values obtained, although still considered sub-totals, are already significant, and, for some cases, high enough to affect energy policy decisions. However, due to the limitations mentioned before, it is recommended to use the results provided by this report only as background information. This information might be very helpful for establishing economic incentives for pollution reduction. But results should not be used directly until the methodology is refined. For what results might be used directly, though, is for planning processes, where the quantitative results are not so relevant. This is the case, for example, of the optimization of power plants site selection, or for choosing among different energy alternatives. Another possible use of these results is for cost-benefit analysis of environmentally-friendly technologies. As far as the more certain external damages avoided compensate the investment cost, the installation of these devices will be justified. Although further research is required to refine the methodology, and thus, to produce more precise results, removing the existing uncertainties, this report is the first comprehensive attempt to estimate the externalities of electricity generation in Spain. Hence, it is believed that it will contribute to a large extent to the integration of environmental aspects into energy policy. 9 1. INTRODUCTION Economic development of the industrialised nations of the world has been founded on continuing growth in energy demand. The use of energy clearly provides enormous benefits to society. However, it is also linked to numerous environmental and social problems, such as the health effects of pollution of air, water and soil, ecological disturbance and species loss, and landscape damage. Such damages are referred to as external costs, as they have typically not been reflected in the market price of energy, or considered by energy planners, and consequently have tended to be ignored. Effective control of these ‘externalities’ whilst pursuing further growth in the use of energy services poses a serious and difficult problem. The European Commission has expressed its intent to respond to this challenge on several occasions; in the 5th Environmental Action Programme; the White Paper on Growth, Competitiveness and Employment; and the White Paper on Energy. A variety of options are available for reducing externalities, ranging from the development of new technologies to the use of fiscal instruments, or the imposition of emission limits. The purpose of externalities research is to quantify damages in order to allow rational decisions to be made that weigh the benefits of actions to reduce externalities against the costs of doing so. Within the European Commission R&D Programme Joule II, the ExternE Project developed and demonstrated a unified methodology for the quantification of the externalities of different power generation technologies. It was launched as the EC-US Fuel Cycles Study in 1991 as a collaborative project with the US Department of Energy. From 1993 to 1995 it continued as the ExternE project, involving more then 40 European institutes from 9 countries, as well as scientists from the US. This resulted in the first comprehensive attempt to use a consistent ‘bottom-up’ methodology to evaluate the external costs associated with a wide range of different fuel chains. The result was identified by both the European and American experts in this field as currently the most advanced project world-wide for the evaluation of external costs of power generation (EC/OECD/IEA, 1995). Under the European Commission’s Joule III Programme, this project has continued with three major tasks: ExternE Core for the further development and updating of the methodology, ExternE National Implementation to create an EU-wide data set and ExternE-Transport for the application of the ExternE methodology to energy related impacts from transport. The current report is the result of the ExternE National Implementation project for Spain. 1.1 Objectives of the project The objective of the ExternE National Implementation project is to establish a comprehensive and comparable set of data on externalities of power generation for all EU member states and Norway. The tasks include; 11 ExternE National Implementation. Spain • the application of the ExternE methodology to the most important fuel chains for each country • updating existing results as new data become available for refinement of methods • aggregation of site- and technology-specific results to the national level • for countries already involved in Joule II, data have been applied to policy questions, to indicate how these data could feed into decision and policy making processes • dissemination of results • creation of a network of scientific institutes familiar with the ExternE methodology and data, and their application • compilation of results in an EU-wide information system for the study. The data in this report results from the application of ExternE-methodology as developed under Joule II. However, because our understanding of the impacts of environmental burdens on humans and nature is improving continuously, this methodology (or more precise, the scientific inputs into the accounting framework) has been updated and further developed. The National Implementation project has generated a large set of comparable and validated results, covering more than 60 cases, for 15 countries and 11 fuel chains. A wide range of generating options have been analysed, including fossil, nuclear and renewable technologies. Analysis takes account of all stages of the fuel chain, from (e.g.) extraction of fuel to disposal of waste material from the generating plant. In addition to the estimates of externalities made in the study, the project also offers a large database of physical and social data on the burdens and impacts of energy systems. The ExternE results form the most extensive externality dataset currently available. They can now be used to look at a range of issues, including; • internalisation of the external costs of energy • optimisation of site selection processes • cost benefit analysis of pollution abatement measures • comparative assessment of energy systems Such applications are illustrated by the case studies presented later in this report, and in other national implementation reports. 1.2 Publications from the project The current report is to be seen as part of a larger set of publications, which commenced with the series of volumes published in 1995 (European Commission, 1995a-f). A further series of reports has been generated under the present study. First, the current report covers the results of the national implementation for Spain, and is published by CIEMAT. It contains all the details of the application of the methodology to the coal, natural gas, biomass co-fired with lignites, wind fuel cycles, and waste incineration, aggregation, and an introduction of the externalities calculated into an electricity dispatching model as an illustration of the use of these results. Brief details of the methodology are 12 Introduction provided in Chapter 2 of this report and the Appendices; a more detailed review is provided in a separate report (European Commission, 1998a). A further report covers the development of estimates of global warming damages (European Commission, 1998b). The series of National Implementation Reports for the 15 countries involved are published in a third report (European Commission, 1998c). In addition, further reports are to be published on the biomass and waste fuel chains, and on the application and further development of the ExternE methodology for the transport sector. This information can also be accessed through the ExternE website. It is held at the Institute for Prospective Technological Studies, and is accessible through the Internet (http://externe.jrc.es). This website is the focal point for the latest news on the project, and hence will provide updates on the continuation of the ExternE project. 1.3 Structure of this report The structure of this report reflects that it is part of a wider set of publications. In order to ease comparison of results, all ExternE National Implementation reports have the same structure and use the same way of presentation of fuel cycles, technologies and results of the analysis. The common structure is especially important for the description of the methodology. Chapter 2 describes the general framework of the selected bottom-up methodology. The major inputs from different scientific disciplines into that framework (e.g. information on dose-response functions) are summarised in the methodological annexes to this report and are discussed at full length in the separate methodology publication (see above). In order to ease readability, the main text of the chapters dealing with the application to the different fuel cycles provide the overview of technology, fuel cycles, environmental burdens and the related externalities. More detailed information (e.g. results for a specific type of impact) is provided in the appendices. 1.4 The Spanish National Implementation 1.4.1 Description of the country 1.4.1.1 Geographical description Spain is placed at the Southwestern corner of Europe, being the natural bridge between Europe and Africa. It covers the major part of the Iberian peninsula, which it shares with Portugal, and it also includes the Balearic and Canary Islands, as well as the African territories of Ceuta and Melilla. 13 ExternE National Implementation. Spain The mainland lies within the northern latitudes of 36º00’03’’ and 43º47’24’’, and the longitudes of 9º17’56’’W and 3º19’13’’E. Altitudes range from sea level to 3,478 m (Pico Mulhacén). The highest Spanish peak, however, is Teide, in the Canary Islands, with 3,718 m above sea level. The total Spanish area is around 504,000 km2. Most of the land has an average altitude between 200 and 1000 m, existing several mountain ranges, of which the major ones are the Pyrenees, in the North, and Sierra Nevada, in the South. The perimeter of the mainland is 5,849 km, of which 3,904 km belong to the coastline. The rest forms the border with France and Andorra(712 km), Portugal (1,232 km) and Gibraltar (1 km). Three major regions may be defined within the peninsula : the inner part, which is formed by two high plateaus, divided by the Sistema Central mountain range, the northern coast, and the southern and eastern areas. The inner part, or Meseta, features a continental climate, with hard winters and hot summers. Average rainfall is around 500 mm per year, and mean temperatures range between 5 and 25ºC. Most of this area is occupied by crops (olives, grapes and cereals) and pasture land. The northern coast has an Atlantic climate, with higher precipitations, and milder temperatures. Land is devoted mainly to pastures. As for the Southern and Eastern regions, their climate is Mediterranean, with warm temperatures and little rainfall. Here the major crops are olives, citrus, and horticultural products. All three areas feature large extensions of natural vegetation, a large part of it characteristic of the Peninsula. Several protected areas exist, some of which have been declared to be of special value by international institutions, due to their high-value biodiversity. Forests make up for some 30% of the land, half of it corresponding to timber forests, and the rest being low forests, or Mediterranean forest. The main timber species are pine and eucalyptus, while in natural forests other species like oak, cork oak, green oak, or chestnuts are also predominant. 1.4.1.2 Population The population of Spain is some 38,800,000, according to the 1991 census. Population density is around 77 inh/km2, what is quite low compared to most European countries. Moreover, most of this population is concentrated near Madrid and Barcelona, and along the coast, so the real density in most parts of the country is even lower. Population distribution was shaped in the late 60s, when migratory flows to Madrid, Barcelona, and other industrial centres were increased. This has left a very sparsely populated 14 Introduction rural area, specially in the inner part of the country, and quite large metropolitan areas around Madrid, Barcelona, Valencia, Bilbao and Sevilla. Correspondingly, urban population has increased, amounting to over three-quarters of the total population. The population distribution is also reflected in the economic activity of the country. It is concentrated in the tertiary sector, with some 50% of the active population. Agriculture is still quite important, employing around 10% of the active population. Unemployment is quite high, around 20%. 1.4.2 Overview of the Spanish energy sector For the last years, the Spanish energy system has been characterized by the following aspects : • poor results in the improvement of energy efficiency • use of low quality national coal (with poor heating value, and high sulfur and ash content) • high dependence of fossil fuels (mainly oil products) • nuclear moratorium, which prevents the commissioning of new nuclear facilities • low participation of hydro, due to the last years drought • important increase of cogeneration and renewables, although this growth is not enough to reach a significant share in the energy system • development of the infrastructure for natural gas transport. An important factor for understanding the Spanish energy system is the use of national coal. In spite of its high costs, and poor quality, this use is maintained because of the importance that mining has in some areas, being the support of the local economic activity. Although there are plans for phasing out non-profitable mining activities, there is not yet a definitive project for it. Spanish primary energy consumption is based mainly on oil products,and to a lesser extent on coal. Oil is used mainly for transport, while coal is used for electricity generation. Table 1.Error! Unknown switch argument. Primary energy consumption in Spain (ktoe) Coal Oil Natural gas Hydro Nuclear Others 1991 18,848 49,367 5,511 2,348 14,484 2,516 1992 19,116 50,880 5,851 1,724 14,537 2,454 1993 18,256 50,155 5,829 2,145 14,609 2,500 1994 17,934 52,267 6,480 2,410 14,415 2,486 1995 18,581 55,294 7,504 1,982 14,449 2,544 TOTAL 95,065 96,554 95,487 97,986 102,349 15 ExternE National Implementation. Spain Of this primary energy, the major part is imported, as Spain is scarce in energy natural resources. Only one third of the energy supply corresponds to domestic energy production, while the rest is imported. As mentioned before, coal is used mainly for electricity generation, as hydro and nuclear. Oil is used mainly for final use in transport, while natural gas is used for domestic and industrial purposes. Table 1.Error! Unknown switch argument. Use of primary energy (ktoe) Coal Oil Natural gas Hydro Nuclear Electricity generation 14,266 2,541 791 2,410 14,415 Final uses 2,962 45,329 5,482 0 0 Other uses 483 4,456 207 0 0 The share of final consumption is shown in the following table. Table 1.Error! Unknown switch argument. Final energy consumption (ktoe) Coal Oil products Gas Electricity TOTAL Final consumption (1995) 2,707 47,646 6,550 12,484 69,382 The final energy consumption in Spain has started to grow in the last two years, due to an increase in transport and industrial activities. Electricity and oil consumption increased around 4% every year, while coal has decreased significantly. The largest increment corresponds to natural gas, which is expected to double its contribution to the energy system. The per capita electricity consumption in Spain is around 3,900 kWh/yr. In order to fulfill this demand, a total power of 47,117 MW is installed, with a total electricity production of 167 TWh, as shown in the following tables. Table 1.Error! Unknown switch argument. Installed electricity power in Spain in 1995 (MW) Installed power (1995) MW % Hydro 16,457 36 Fossil 20,767 45 Nuclear 7,417 16 Renewable energy 1,313 3 16 Introduction Table 1.Error! Unknown switch argument. Electricity generation in Spain in 1995 (GWh) Electricity generated GWh % Hydro 23,968 14 Fossil 89,276 52 Nuclear 55,442 32 Renewable energy 3,968 2 As may be seen in these tables, fossil energy only contributes to 52% of the total electricity generated, even in a year in which hydro was not very important due to the drought. For those years where rainfall is normal, fossil electricity should go down to less than 40%. All these facts result in the following objectives for the Spanish energy policy towards year 2,000. • Improvement in energy efficiency • Promotion of indigenous energy resources • Increased share of natural gas for cogeneration, combined cycles, and repowering • Increased share of renewable energies through promotion schemes • No increment of nuclear power generating capacity • Increased use of national coal. Optimization of existing plants, and introduction of cleaner generation technologies. • Promotion of rational use of oil, replacement by natural gas • Liberalization of the oil, gas, and electricity markets. 1.4.3 Justification of the selection of fuel cycles The fuel cycles assessed in this report have been selected according to two main criteria : the need to aggregate results for the whole electricity sector, and the use of these results for planning purposes. According to the first criteria, already existing plants should have been selected. However, most of them are old plants, burning fuels that are not expected to be used much in the following years. Therefore, the achievement of both criteria was not possible. Then, the second criterium has been used. This decision was taken based on two facts, which may seem contradictory : on one hand, the complexity of the aggregation exercise made, in our opinion, its results less useful, and so less prioritary, than the use of the results only for planning purposes ; on the other hand, preliminary results might be obtained for the existing power plants. Results for fossil fuels might be obtained with EcoSense software, and results 17 ExternE National Implementation. Spain for nuclear might be extrapolated from other countries, due to their reduced site-specificity. For hydro, their site-specificity is so high that the assessment of a hydro power plant would not have helped much for the aggregation. Considering the marginal approach proposed by the ExternE methodology, it was considered that it was more interesting to assess those fuel cycles which were deemed more representative of the future Spanish energy system, as results would be more precise, and its use for planning would be rather straightforward. Hence, the fuel cycles selected were : national coal, burnt with clean technologies, natural gas, biomass co-fired with lignites, wind, and waste incineration. Coal and wind were assessed in the first stage of the ExternE National Implementation. As shown previously, national coal is expected to be used more in the following years, due to its advantages for energy security, and for maintaining the mining industry and all its related activities. However, clean technologies have to be used, in order to comply with the national and international environmental standards. Natural gas is expected to have the largest increase for electricity generation, both in new power plants, or for repowering already existing ones. The gas pipeline built from Algeria will ensure a reliable and large supply to most regions of Spain. One possibility that has been mentioned, and the one we assess here, is the utilization of the infrastructure of noncompleted nuclear power plants for commissioning gas power plants. In this case, the site chosen has been Valdecaballeros, where two nuclear groups remain uncompleted. This location is the same chosen for siting the coal fuel cycle, which might also be an alternative fuel for this plant. Renewables are being strongly promoted, and so their contribution to the energy balance should be increased significantly. Among them, the largest contributors are expected to be biomass and wind. The most promising biomass energy sources are forest residues and energy crops. Of these, forest residues are the easiest to use in the near future, so these have been the ones chosen for the study. In the fuel cycle assessed, biomass will be co-fired with lignites, as this has been identified as an efficient way of improving the environmental performance of the latter, while improving the energy yield of biomass. The other renewable energy source assessed is wind. Spain is one the European countries where wind has a larger development, with projects for installing 2,500 MW in the next years. This is due both to the favourable wind conditions and to the economic incentives established by the Government. The wind farm assessed is sited in Galicia, where most of the wind power will be installed. The last fuel cycle selected has been waste incineration. This energy source has very little relevance for the national energy balance. However, the siting of waste incineration plants has become a hot issue in Spain, due to their possible impacts on human health. Therefore, it was considered that the assessment of the externalities of waste incineration would be very helpful 18 Introduction for the current debate on them, as the results might be introduced into planning processes for future plants. 1.4.4 Related national studies To our knowledge, no other studies have been carried out in Spain on the assessment of the externalities of energy. The only exception to this is a Ph.D. thesis on the assessment of the effects of air pollution caused by a coal power plant on nearby crops (Coll, 1992). Other related studies identified have been two studies on the assessment of the damages of air pollutants, carried out by AED ( 1991) and Azqueta and Ferreiro (Azqueta, 1994), in Andalucía and Asturias, respectively. However, no relationship between energy production and air pollutants was established. This is the same for other limited studies on the effects of noise, or for the economic valuation of ecosystems, for which no relationship with energy production was defined. One study which estimated the externalities of energy crops was published by CIEMAT last year (Linares et al, 1996), although the externalities assessed referred more to the cultivation stage than to power generation. This study followed the ExternE methodology. Since the ExternE National Implementation project started, some other studies have been carried out. For example, CIEMAT is applying the ExternE methodology for the assessment of the externalities of two lignite power plants in Spain. A study has also been undertaken to quantify the external costs of conventional electricity compared to renewable energy sources, in order to help determine the environmental subsidies that should be awarded to renewable energy. This study will be based on an LCA analysis, but no results are available yet. 19 2. METHODOLOGY 2.1 Approaches Used for Externality Analysis The ExternE Project uses the ‘impact pathway’ approach for the assessment of the external impacts and associated costs resulting from the supply and use of energy. The analysis proceeds sequentially through the pathway, as shown in Figure 2.1. Emissions and other types of burden such as risk of accident are quantified and followed through to impact assessment and valuation. The approach thus provides a logical and transparent way of quantifying externalities. However, this style of analysis has only recently become possible, through developments in environmental science and economics, and improvements in computing power has. Early externalities work used a ‘top-down’ approach (the impact pathway approach being ‘bottomup’ in comparison). Such analysis is highly aggregated, being carried out at a regional or national level, using estimates of the total quantities of pollutants emitted or present and estimates of the total damage that they cause. Although the work of Hohmeyer (1988) and others advanced the debate on externalities research considerably, the style of analysis was too simplistic for adoption for policy analysis. In particular, no account could be taken of the dependence of damage with the location of emission, beyond minor corrections for variation of income at the valuation stage. An alternative approach was the ‘control cost’ method, which substitutes the cost of reducing emissions of a pollutant (which are determined from engineering data) for the cost of damages due to these emissions. Proponents of this approach argued that when elected representatives decide to adopt a particular level of emissions control they express the collective ‘willingnessto-pay’ of the society that they represent to avoid the damage. However, the method is entirely self-referencing - if the theory was correct, whatever level of pollution abatement is agreed would by definition equal the economic optimum. Although knowledge of control costs is an important element in formulating prescriptive regulations, presenting them as if they were damage costs is to be avoided. Life cycle analysis (OECD, 1992; Heijungs et al, 1992; Lindfors et al, 1995) is a flourishing discipline whose roots go back to the net energy analyses that were popular twenty years ago. While there are several variations, all life cycle analysis is in theory based on a careful and holistic accounting of all energy and material flows associated with a system or process. The approach has typically been used to compare the environmental impacts associated with different products that perform similar functions, such as plastic and glass bottles. Restriction of the assessment to material and energy flows means that some types of externality (such as the fiscal externalities arising from energy security) are completely outside the scope of LCA. 21 ExternE National Implementation. Spain EMISSIONS (e.g. tonnes/year of SO2) DISPERSION INCREASE IN AMBIENT CONCENTRATIONS (e.g. ppb SO2 for all affected regions) IMPACT IMPACT (e.g. change in crop yield) CONCENTRATION COST Figure 2.1 An illustration of the main steps of the impact pathways methodology applied to the consequences of pollutant emissions. Each step is analysed with detailed process models. The ExternE method has numerous links to LCA. The concept of fuel cycle or fuel chain analysis, in which all components of a given system are analysed ‘from cradle to grave’, 22 Methodology corresponds with the LCA framework. Hence for electric power fuel chains the analysis undertaken within the ExternE Project covers (so far as possible); fuel extraction, transportation and preparation of fuels and other inputs; plant construction, plant operation (power generation), waste disposal and plant decommissioning. There are, however, some significant differences between externalities analysis as presented in this study and typical LCA analysis. Life cycle analyses tend not to be specific on the calculation of impacts, if they have attempted to quantify impacts at all. For example, the ‘classification factors’ identified by Heijungs et al (1992) for each pollutant are independent of the site of release. For air pollution these factors were calculated with the assumption of uniform mixing in the earth's atmosphere. While this can be justified for greenhouse gases and other pollutants with long residence times, it is unrealistic for particulate matter, NOx, SO2 and ozone (O3). The reason for this radical approximation lies in the choice of emphasis in LCA: accounting for all material flows, direct and induced. Since induced flows occur at many geographically different points under a variety of different conditions, it is simply not practicable to model the fate of all emissions. In this sense, ExternE is much more ambitious and precise in its estimates than LCA. A second difference is that most LCA studies have a much more stringent view on system boundaries and do not prioritise between different impacts. The ExternE analysts have to a large extent decided themselves if certain stages of the fuel cycle, such as plant construction or fuel transportation, can be excluded. Such decisions are made from experience of the likely magnitude of damages, and a knowledge of whether a given type of impact is perceived to be serious. [Note that it is recommended to quantify damages for any impact perceived to be serious whether or not earlier analysis has suggested that associated damages will be negligible]. What might be referred to as analytical ‘looseness’ is a consequence of the remit of the ExternE project, which has as a final objective quantification of the externalities of energy systems. As such the main emphasis of the study is quite properly on the impacts that are likely (given current knowledge) to dominate the results. Externalities assessments based on the ExternE methodology but conducted for other purposes may need to take a more truly holistic perspective than has been attempted here. The analysis presented in this report places its emphasis on the quantification of impacts and cost because people care more about impacts than emissions. The quantification of emissions is merely a step in the analysis. From this perspective the choice between externalities assessment and conventional LCA is a matter of accuracy; uncertainties increase the further the analysis is continued. In general terms, however, it is our view that the fuel chain analyses of the ExternE Project can be considered a particular example of life cycle analysis. 2.2 Guiding Principles in the Development of the ExternE Methodology The underlying principles on which the methodology for the ExternE Project has been developed are: 23 ExternE National Implementation. Spain Transparency, to show precisely how results are calculated, the uncertainty associated with the results and the extent to which the external costs of any fuel chain have been fully quantified. Consistency, of methodology, models and assumptions (e.g. system boundaries, exposureresponse functions and valuation of risks to life) to allow valid comparisons to be made between different fuel chains and different types of impact within a fuel chain. That analysis should be comprehensive, we should seek to at least identify all of the effects that may give rise to significant externalities, even if some of these cannot be quantified in either physical or monetary terms. In order to comply with these principles, much of the analysis described in this report looks at the effects of individual power projects which are closely specified with respect to: • The technologies used; • The location of the power generation plant; • The location of supporting activities; • The type of fuel used; • The source and composition of the fuel used. Each of these factors is important in determining the magnitude of impacts and hence associated externalities. 2.3 Defining the Boundaries of the Analysis The starting point for fuel chain analysis is the definition of the temporal and spatial boundaries of the system under investigation, and the range of burdens and impacts to be addressed. The boundaries used in the ExternE Project are very broad. This is essential in order to ensure consistency in the application of the methodology for different fuel chains. Certain impacts brought within these boundaries cannot be quantified at the present time, and hence the analysis is incomplete. However, this is not a problem peculiar to this style of analysis; it simply reflects the existence of gaps in available knowledge. Our rule here is that no impact that is known or suspected to exist, but cannot be quantified, should be ignored for convenience. Instead it should be retained for consideration alongside whatever analysis has been possible. Further work is needed so that unquantified effects can be better integrated into decision making processes. 24 Methodology 2.3.1 Stages of the fuel chain For any project associated with electricity generation the system is centred on the generation plant itself. However, the system boundaries should be drawn so as to account for all potential effects of a fuel chain. The exact list of stages is clearly dependent on the fuel chain in question, but would include activities linked to the manufacture of materials for plant, construction, demolition and site restoration as well as power generation. Other stages may need to be considered, such as, exploration, extraction, processing and transport of fuel, and the generation of wastes and by-products, and their treatment prior to disposal. In practice, a complete analysis of each stage of a fuel chain is often not necessary in order to meet the objectives of the analysis (see below). However, the onus is on the analyst to demonstrate that this is the case - it cannot simply be assumed. Worth noting is the fact that variation in laws and other local conditions will lead to major differences between the importance of different stages in different parts of the world. A further complication arises because of the linkage between fuel chains and other activities, upstream and downstream. For example, in theory we should account for the externalities associated with (e.g.) the production of materials for the construction of the plant used to make the steel that is used to make turbines, coal wagons, etc. The benefit of doing so is, however, extremely limited. Fortunately this can be demonstrated through order-ofmagnitude calculations on emissions, without the need for detailed analysis. The treatment of waste matter and by-products deserves special mention. Impacts associated with waste sent for disposal are part of the system under analysis. However, impacts associated with waste utilised elsewhere (which are here referred to not a waste but as by-products) should be considered as part of the system to which they are transferred from the moment that they are removed from the boundaries of the fuel chain. It is of course important to be sure that a market exists for any such by-products. The capacity of, for example, the building industry to utilise gypsum from flue gas desulphurisation systems is clearly finite. If it is probable that markets for particular by-products are already saturated, the ‘by-product’ must be considered as waste instead. A further difficulty lies in the uncertainties about future management of waste storage sites. For example, if solid residues from a power plant are disposed in a well engineered and managed landfill there is no impact (other than land use) as long as the landfill is correctly managed; however, for the more distant future such management is not certain. 2.3.2 Location of fuel chain activities One of the distinguishing features of the ExternE study is the inclusion of site dependence. For each stage of each fuel chain we have therefore identified specific locations for the power plant and all of the other activities drawn within the system boundaries. In some cases this has gone so far as to identify routes for the transport of fuel to power stations. The reason for defining our analysis to this level of detail is simply that location is important in determining the size of impacts. There are several elements to this, the most important of which are: 25 ExternE National Implementation. Spain • Variation in technology arising from differing legal requirements (e.g. concerning the use of pollution abatement techniques, occupational safety standards, etc.); • Variation in fuel quality; • Variations in atmospheric dispersion; • Differences in the sensitivity of the human and natural environment upon which fuel chain burdens impact. The alternative to this would be to describe a ‘representative’ site for each activity. It was agreed at an early stage of the study that such a concept is untenable. Also, recent developments elsewhere, such as use of critical loads analysis in the revision of the Sulphur Protocol within the United Nations Economic Commission for Europe’s (UN ECE) Convention on Long Range Transboundary Air Pollution, demonstrate the importance attached to site dependence by decision makers. However, the selection of a particular series of sites for a particular fuel chain is not altogether realistic, particularly in relation to upstream impacts. For example, although some coal fired power stations use coal from the local area, an increasing number use coal imported from a number of different countries. This has now been taken into account. 2.3.3 Identification of fuel chain technologies The main objective of this project was to quantify the external costs of power generation technologies built in the 1990s. For the most part it was not concerned with future technologies that are as yet unavailable, nor with older technologies which are gradually being decommissioned. Over recent years an increasingly prescriptive approach has been taken to the regulation of new power projects. The concept of Best Available Techniques (BAT), coupled with emission limits and environmental quality standards defined by both national and international legislation, restrict the range of alternative plant designs and rates of emission. This has made it relatively easy to select technologies for each fuel chain on a basis that is consistent across fuel chains. However, care is still needed to ensure that a particular set of assumptions are valid for any given country. Across the broader ExternE National Implementation Project particular variation has for example been found with respect to the control of NOx in different EU Member States. As stated above, the present report deals mainly with closely specified technology options. Results have also been aggregated for the whole electricity generating sector, providing first estimates of damages at the national level. 26 Methodology 2.3.4 Identification of fuel chain burdens For the purposes of this project the term ‘burden’ relates to anything that is, or could be, capable of causing an impact of whatever type. The following broad categories of ‘burden’ have been identified: • Solid wastes; • Liquid wastes; • Gaseous and particulate air pollutants; • Risk of accidents; • Occupational exposure to hazardous substances; • Noise; • Others (e.g. exposure to electro-magnetic fields, emissions of heat). During the identification of burdens no account has been taken of the likelihood of any particular burden actually causing an impact, whether serious or not. For example, in spite of the concern that has been voiced in recent years there is no definitive evidence that exposure to electro-magnetic fields associated with the transmission of electricity is capable of causing harm. The purpose of the exercise is simply to catalogue everything to provide a basis for the analysis of different fuel chains to be conducted in a consistent and transparent manner, and to provide a firm basis for revision of the analysis as more information on the effects of different burdens becomes available in the future. The need to describe burdens comprehensively is highlighted by the fact that it is only recently that the effects of long range transport of acidic pollutants, and the release of CFCs and other greenhouse gases have been appreciated. Ecosystem acidification, global warming and depletion of the ozone layer are now regarded as among the most important environmental concerns facing the world. The possibility of other apparently innocuous burdens causing risks to health and the environment should not be ignored. 2.3.5 Identification of impacts The next part of the work involves identification of the potential impacts of these burdens. At this stage it is irrelevant whether a given burden will actually cause an appreciable impact; all potential impacts of the identified burdens should be reported. The emphasis here is on making analysts demonstrate that certain impacts are of little or no concern, according to current knowledge. The conclusion that the externalities associated with a particular burden or impact, when normalised to fuel chain output, are likely to be negligible is an important result that should not be passed over without comment. It will not inevitably follow that action to reduce the burden is unnecessary, as the impacts associated with it may have a serious effect on a small number of people. From a policy perspective it might imply, 27 ExternE National Implementation. Spain however, that the use of fiscal instruments might not be appropriate for dealing with the burden efficiently. The first series of ExternE reports (European Commission, 1995a-f) provided comprehensive listings of burdens and impacts for most of the fuel chains considered. The tasks outlined in this section and the previous one are therefore not as onerous as they seem, and will become easier with the development of appropriate databases. 2.3.6 Valuation criteria Many receptors that may be affected by fuel chain activities are valued in a number of different ways. For example, forests are valued not just for the timber that they produce, but also for providing recreational resources, habitats for wildlife, their interactions (direct and indirect) with climate and the hydrological cycle, protection of buildings and people in areas subject to avalanche, etc. Externalities analysis should include all such aspects in its valuation. Again, the fact that a full quantitative valuation along these lines is rarely possible is besides the point when seeking to define what a study should seek to address: the analyst has the responsibility of gathering information on behalf of decision makers and should not make arbitrary decisions as to what may be worthy of further debate. 2.3.7 Spatial limits of the impact analysis The system boundary also has spatial and temporal dimensions. Both should be designed to capture impacts as fully as possible. This has major implications for the analysis of the effects of air pollution in particular. It necessitates extension of the analysis to a distance of hundreds of kilometres for many air pollutants operating at the ‘regional’ scale, such as ozone, secondary particles, and SO2. For greenhouse gases the appropriate range for the analysis is obviously global. Consideration of these ranges is in marked contrast to the standard procedure employed in environmental impact assessment which considers pollutant transport over a distance of only a few kilometres and is further restricted to primary pollutants. The importance of this issue in externalities analysis is that in many cases in the ExternE Project it has been found that regional effects of air pollutants like SO2, NOx and associated secondary pollutants are far greater than effects on the local scale (for examples see European Commission, 1995c). In some locations, for example close to large cities, this pattern is reversed, and accordingly the framework for assessing air pollution effects developed within the EcoSense model allows specific account to be taken of local range dispersion. It is frequently necessary to truncate the analysis at some point, because of limits on the availability of data. Under these circumstances it is recommended that an estimate be provided of the extent to which the analysis has been restricted. For example, one could quantify the proportion of emissions of a given pollutant that have been accounted for, and the proportion left unaccounted. 28 Methodology 2.3.8 Temporal limits of the impact analysis In keeping with the previous section, impacts should be assessed over their full time course. This clearly introduces a good deal of uncertainty for long term impacts, such as those of global warming or high level radioactive waste disposal, as it requires a view to be taken on the structure of future society. There are a number of facets to this, such as global population and economic growth, technological developments, the sustainability of fossil fuel consumption and the sensitivity of the climate system to anthropogenic emissions. The approach adopted here is that discounting should only be applied after costs are quantified. The application of any discount rate above zero can reduce the cost of major events in the distant future to a negligible figure. This perhaps brings into question the logic of a simplistic approach to discounting over time scales running far beyond the experience of recorded history. There is clear conflict here between some of the concepts that underlie traditional economic analysis and ideas on sustainability over timescales that are meaningful in the context of the history of the planet. For further information, the discounting of global warming damages is discussed further in Appendix V. The assessment of future costs is of course not simply a discounting issue. A scenario based approach is also necessary in some cases in order to describe the possible range of outcomes. This is illustrated by the following examples; • A richer world would be better placed to take action against the impacts of global warming than a poorer one; • The damages attributable to the nuclear fuel chain could be greatly reduced if more effective treatments for cancer are discovered. Despite the uncertainties involved it is informative to conduct analysis of impacts that take effect over periods of many years. By doing so it is at least possible to gain some idea of how important these effects might be in comparison to effects experienced over shorter time scales. The chief methodological and ethical issues that need to be addressed can also be identified. To ignore them would suggest that they are unlikely to be of any importance. 2.4 Analysis of Impact Pathways Having identified the range of burdens and impacts that result from a fuel chain, and defined the technologies under investigation, the analysis typically proceeds as follows: • Prioritisation of impacts; • Description of priority impact pathways; • Quantification of burdens; • Description of the receiving environment; 29 ExternE National Implementation. Spain • Quantification of impacts; • Economic valuation; • Description of uncertainties. 2.4.1 Prioritisation of impacts It is possible to produce a list of several hundred burdens and impacts for many fuel chains (see European Commission, 1995c, pp. 49-58). A comprehensive analysis of all of these is clearly beyond the scope of externality analysis. In the context of this study, it is important to be sure that the analysis covers those effects that (according to present knowledge) will provide the greatest externalities (see the discussion on life cycle analysis in section 2.1). Accordingly, the analysis presented here is limited, though only after due consideration of the potential magnitude of all impacts that were identified for the fuel chains that were assessed. It is necessary to ask whether the decision to assess only a selection of impacts in detail reduces the value of the project as a whole. We believe that it does not, as it can be shown that many impacts (particularly those operating locally around any given fuel chain activity) will be negligible compared to the overall damages associated with the technology under examination. There are good reasons for believing that local impacts will tend to be of less importance than regional and global effects. The first is that they tend to affect only a small number of people. Even though it is possible that some individuals may suffer very significant damages these will not amount to a significant effect when normalised against a fuel chain output in the order of several Tera-Watt (1012 Watt) hours per year. It is likely that the most appropriate means of controlling such effects is through local planning systems, which be better able than policy developed using externalities analysis to deal flexibly with the wide range of concerns that may exist locally. A second reason for believing that local impacts will tend to be less significant is that it is typically easier to ascribe cause and effect for impacts effective over a short range than for those that operate at longer ranges. Accordingly there is a longer history of legislation to combat local effects. It is only in recent years that the international dimension of pollution of the atmosphere and water systems has been realised, and action has started to be taken to deal with them. There are obvious exceptions to the assertion that in many cases local impacts are of less importance than others; • Within OECD states one of the most important exceptions concerns occupational disease, and accidents that affect workers and members of the public. Given the high value attached to human life and well-being there is clear potential for associated externalities to be large. 30 Methodology • Other cases mainly concern renewable technologies, at least in countries in which there is a substantial body of environmental legislation governing the design and siting of nuclear and fossil-fired plant. For example, most concern over the development of wind farms typically relates to visual intrusion in natural landscapes and to noise emissions. • There is the possibility that a set of conditions - meteorology, geography, plant design, proximity of major centres of population, etc. - can combine to create local air quality problems. The analysis of certain upstream impacts appears to create difficulties for the consistency of the analysis. For example, if we treat emissions of SO2 from a power station as a priority burden, why not include emissions of SO2 from other parts of the fuel chain, for example from the production of the steel and concrete required for the construction of the power plant? Calculations made in the early stages of ExternE using databases, such as GEMIS (Fritsche et al, 1992), showed that the emissions associated with material inputs to fossil power plants are 2 or 3 orders of magnitude lower than those from the power generation stage. It is thus logical to expect that the impacts of such emissions are trivial in comparison, and can safely be excluded from the analysis - if they were to be included the quantified effects would be secondary to the uncertainties of the analysis of the main source of emissions. However, this does not hold across all fuel chains. In the reports on both the wind fuel chain (European Commission, 1995f) and the photovoltaic fuel chain (ISET, 1995), for example, it was found that emissions associated with the manufacture of plant are capable of causing significant externalities, relative to the others that were quantified. The selection of priorities partly depends on whether one wants to evaluate damages or externalities. In quite a few cases the externalities are small in spite of significant damages. For example, if a power plant has been in place for a long time, much of the externality associated with visual and noise impacts will have been internalised through adjustments in the price of housing. It has been argued that occupational health effects are also likely to be internalised. For example, if coal miners are rational and well informed their work contracts should offer benefits that internalise the incremental risk that they are exposed to. However, this is a very controversial assumption, as it depends precisely upon people being both rational and well informed and also upon the existence of perfect mobility in labour markets. For the present time we have quantified occupational health effects in full, leaving the assessment of the degree to which they are internalised to a later date. It is again stressed that it would be wrong to assume that those impacts given low priority in this study are always of so little value from the perspective of energy planning that it is never worth considering them in the assessment of external costs. Each case has to be assessed individually. Differences in the local human and natural environment, and legislation need to be considered. 2.4.2 Description of priority impact pathways Some impact pathways analysed in the present study are extremely simple in form. For example, the construction of a wind farm will affect the appearance of a landscape, leading to 31 ExternE National Implementation. Spain a change in visual amenity. In other cases the link between ‘burden’ (defined here simply as something that causes an ‘impact’) and monetary cost is far more complex. To clearly define the linkages involved in such cases we have drawn a series of diagrams. One of these is shown in Figure 2.2, illustrating the series of processes that need to be accounted for from emission of acidifying pollutants to valuation of impacts on agricultural crops. It is clearly far more complex than the pathway suggested by Figure 2.1. A number of points should be made about Figure 2.2. It (and others like it) do not show what has been carried out within the project. Instead they illustrate an ideal - what one would like to do if there was no constraint on data availability. They can thus be used both in the development of the methodology and also as a check once analysis has been completed, to gain an impression of the extent to which the full externality has been quantified. This last point is important because much of the analysis presented in this report is incomplete. This reflects on the current state of knowledge of the impacts addressed. The analysis can easily be extended once further data becomes available. Also, for legibility, numerous feedbacks and interactions are not explicitly shown in the diagrammatic representation of the pathway. 32 Methodology Dry deposition Emission I Transport and atmospheric chemistry II Contribution of dry deposition Wet deposition Fo lia r u p ta ke to total acidity of system 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 1. Soil acidification 2. Mobilization of heavy metals and nutrients Foliar necrosis Physiological damage Chlorosis Pest performance Leaching Growth stimulation Climate interactions III IV 1. Root damage Interactions 2. Leaching from foliage 3. Nutrient loss from soil 4. Nutritional balance V 5. Climate interactions 6. Pest performance 7. etc... 8. etc... 1. Growth 2. Biomass allocation 3. Appearance VI 4. Death 5. Soil quality 1. 2. 3. 4. Value of produce Land prices Breeding costs Soil conditioning costs VII Figure 2.2 The impact pathway showing the series of linkages between emission of acidifying pollutants and ozone precursors and valuation of impacts on agricultural systems. 33 ExternE National Implementation. Spain 2.4.3 Quantification of burdens The data used to quantify burdens must be both current and relevant to the situation under analysis. Emission standards, regulation of safety in the workplace and other factors vary significantly over time and between and within different countries. It is true that the need to meet these demands creates difficulties for data collection. However, given that the objective of this work is to provide as far as possible an accurate account of the environmental and social burdens imposed by energy supply and use, these issues should not be ignored. It is notable that data for new technologies can change rapidly following their introduction. In addition to the inevitable refinement of technologies over time, manufacturers of novel equipment may be cautious in their assessment of plant performance. As an example of this latter point, NOx emission factors for combined cycle gas turbine plant currently coming on stream in several countries are far lower than was suggested by Environmental Statements written for the same plant less than five years ago. All impacts associated with pollution of some kind require the quantification of emissions. Emission rates of the ‘classical’ air pollutants (CO2, SO2, NOx, CO, volatile organic compounds and particulate matter) are quite well known. Especially well determined is the rate of CO2 emission for fuel using equipment; it depends only on the efficiency of the equipment and the carbon/hydrogen ratio of the fuel - uncertainty is negligible. Emissions of the other classical air pollutants are somewhat less certain, particularly as they can vary with operating conditions, and maintenance routines. The sulphur content of different grades of oil and coal can vary by an order of magnitude, and hence, likewise, will emissions unless this is compensated for through varying the performance of abatement technologies. The general assumption made in this study is that unless otherwise specified, the technology used is the best available according to the regulations in the country of implementation, and that performance will not degrade. We have sought to limit the uncertainty associated with emissions of these pollutants by close identification of the source and quality of fuel inputs within the study. The situation is less clear with respect to trace pollutants such as lead and mercury, since the content of these in fuel can vary by much more than an order of magnitude. Furthermore, some of these pollutants are emitted in such small quantities that even their measurement is difficult. The dirtier the fuel, the greater the uncertainty in the emission estimate. There is also the need to account for emissions to more than one media, as pollutants may be passed to air, water or land. The last category is the subject of major uncertainty, as waste has historically been sent for disposal to facilities of varying quality, ranging from simple holes in the ground to well-engineered landfills. Increasing regulation relating to the disposal of material and management of landfills should reduce uncertainty in this area greatly for analysis within the European Union, particularly given the concept of self-sufficiency enshrined in Regulation 259/93 on the supervision and control of shipments of waste into, out of and within the European Community. The same will not apply in many other parts of the world. The problem becomes more difficult for the upstream and downstream stages of the fuel chain because of the variety of technologies that may be involved. Particularly important may be 34 Methodology some stages of fuel chains such as biomass, where the fuel chain is potentially so diverse that it is possible that certain activities are escaping stringent environmental regulation. The burdens discussed so far relate only to routine emissions. Burdens resulting from accidents also need to be considered. These might result in emissions (e.g. of oil) or an incremental increase in the risk of injury or death to workers or members of the public. Either way it is normally necessary to rely upon historical data to quantify accident rates. Clearly the data should be as recent as possible so that the rates used reflect current risks. Major uncertainty however is bound to be present when extreme events need to be considered, such as the disasters at Chernobyl and on the Piper Alpha oil rig in the North Sea. To some extent it is to be expected that accident rates will fall over time, drawing on experience gained. However, structural changes in industries, for example through privatisation or a decrease in union representation, may reverse such a trend. Wherever possible data should be relevant to the country where a particular fuel chain activity takes place. Major differences in burdens may arise due to different standards covering occupational health, extension of the distance over which fuel needs to be transported, etc. 2.4.4 Description of the receiving environment The use of the impact pathway approach requires a detailed definition of the scenario under analysis with respect to both time and space. This includes: • Meteorological conditions affecting dispersion and chemistry of atmospheric pollutants; • Location, age and health of human populations relative to the source of emissions; • The status of ecological resources; • The value systems of individuals. The range of the reference environment for any impact requires expert assessment of the area influenced by the burden under investigation. As stated above, arbitrary truncation of the reference environment is methodologically wrong and will produce results that are incorrect. It is to be avoided as far as possible. Clearly the need to describe the sensitivity of the receiving environment over a vast area (extending to the whole planet for some impacts) creates a major demand on the analyst. This is simplified by the large scale of the present study - which has been able to draw on data held in many different countries. Further to this it has been possible to draw on numerous databases that are being compiled as part of other work, for example on critical loads mapping. Databases covering the whole of Europe, describing the distribution of the key receptors affected by SO2, NOx, NH3 and fine particles have been derived or obtained for use in the EcoSense software developed by the study team. 35 ExternE National Implementation. Spain In order to take account of future damages, some assumption is required on the evolution of the stock at risk. In a few cases it is reasonable to assume that conditions will remain roughly constant, and that direct extrapolation from the present day is as good an approximation as any. In other cases, involving for example the emission of acidifying gases or the atmospheric concentration of greenhouse gases this assumption is untenable, and scenarios need to be developed. Confidence in these scenarios clearly declines as they extend further into the future. 2.4.5 Quantification of impacts The methods used to quantify various types of impact are discussed in depth in the report on the study methodology (European Commission, 1998). The functions and other data that we have used are summarised at the back of this report in Appendices I (describing the EcoSense software), II (health), III (materials), IV (ecological receptors), V (global warming effects), VI (economic issues) and VII (uncertainty). The complexity of the analysis varies greatly between impacts. In some cases externalities can be calculated by multiplying together as few as 3 or 4 parameters. In others it is necessary to use a series of sophisticated models linked to large databases. Common to all of the analysis conducted on the impacts of pollutants emitted from fuel chains is the need for modelling the dispersion of pollutants and the use of a dose-response function of some kind. Again, there is much variation in the complexity of the models used (see Appendix I). The most important pollutant transport models used within ExternE relate to the atmospheric dispersion of pollutants. They need to account not only for the physical transport of pollutants by the winds but also for chemical transformation. The dispersion of pollutants that are in effect chemically stable in the region of the emission can be predicted using Gaussian plume models. These models assume source emissions are carried in a straight line by the wind, mixing with the surrounding air both horizontally and vertically to produce pollutant concentrations with a normal (or Gaussian) spatial distribution. The use of these models is typically constrained to within a distance of 100 km of the source. Air-borne pollutant transport of course extends over much greater distances than 100 km. A different approach is needed for assessing regional transport as chemical reactions in the atmosphere become increasingly important. This is particularly so for the acidifying pollutants. For this analysis we have used receptor-orientated Lagrangian trajectory models. The outputs from the trajectory models include atmospheric concentrations and deposition of both the emitted species and secondary pollutants formed in the atmosphere. A major problem has so far been the lack of a regional model of ozone formation and transport within fossil-fuel power station plumes that is applicable to the European situation. In consequence a simplified approach has been adopted for assessment of ozone effects (European Commission, 1998). The term ‘dose-response’ is used somewhat loosely in much of this work, as what we are really talking about is the response to a given exposure of a pollutant in terms of atmospheric concentration, rather than an ingested dose. Hence the terms ‘dose-response’ and ‘exposure- 36 Methodology response’ should be considered interchangeable. A major issue with the application of such functions concerns the assumption that they are transferable from one context to another. For example, some of the functions for health effects of air pollutants are still derived from studies in the USA. Is it valid to assume that these can be used in Europe? The answer to this question is to a certain degree unknown - there is good reason to suspect that there will be some variation, resulting from the affluence of the affected population, the exact composition of the cocktail of pollutants that the study group was exposed to, etc. Indeed, such variation has been noted in the results of different epidemiological studies. However, in most cases the view of our experts has been that transference of functions is to be preferred to ignoring particular types of impact altogether - neither option is free from uncertainty. Dose-response functions come in a variety of functional forms, some of which are illustrated in Figure 2.3. They may be linear or non-linear and contain thresholds (e.g. critical loads) or not. Those describing effects of various air pollutants on agriculture have proved to be particularly complex, incorporating both positive and negative effects, because of the potential for certain pollutants, e.g. those containing sulphur and nitrogen, to act as fertilisers. Non-linear Response Non-linear fertilisation Linear, no threshold Linear, with threshold Dose Figure 2.3 A variety of possible forms for dose-response functions. Ideally these functions and other models are derived from studies that are epidemiological assessing the effects of pollutants on real populations of people, crops, etc. This type of work has the advantage of studying response under realistic conditions. However, results are much more difficult to interpret than when working under laboratory conditions, where the 37 ExternE National Implementation. Spain environment can be closely controlled. Although laboratory studies provide invaluable data on response mechanisms, they often suffer from the need to expose study populations to extremely high levels of pollutants, often significantly greater than they would be exposed to in the field. Extrapolation to lower, more realistic levels may introduce significant uncertainties, particularly in cases where there is reason to suspect that a threshold may exist. The description and implementation of exposure-response relationships is fundamental to the entire ExternE Project. Much of the report on methodology (European Commission, 1998) is, accordingly, devoted to assessment of the availability and reliability of these functions. 2.4.6 Economic valuation The rationale and procedures underlying the economic valuation applied within the ExternE Project are discussed in Appendix VI and in more detail in the methodology report (European Commission, 1998). The approach followed is based on the quantification of individual ‘willingness to pay’ (WTP) for environmental benefit. A limited number of goods of interest to this study - crops, timber, building materials, etc. are directly marketed, and for these valuation data are easy to obtain. However, many of the more important goods of concern are not directly marketed, including human health, ecological systems and non-timber benefits of forests. Alternative techniques have been developed for valuation of such goods, the main ones being hedonic pricing, travel cost methods and contingent valuation (Appendix VI). All of these techniques involve uncertainties, though they have been considerably refined over the years. The base year for the valuation described in this report is 1995, and all values are referenced to that year. The unit of currency used is the ECU. The exchange rate was approximately 1 ECU to US$1.25 in 1995. The central discount rate used for the study is 3%, with upper and lower rates of 0% and 10% also used to show sensitivity to discount rate. The rationale for the selection of this range and best estimate, and a broader description of issues relating to discounting, was given in an earlier report (European Commission, 1995b). 2.4.7 Assessment of uncertainty Uncertainty in externality estimates arises in several ways, including: • The variability inherent in any set of data; • Extrapolation of data from the laboratory to the field; • Extrapolation of exposure-response data from one geographical location to another; • Assumptions regarding threshold conditions; • Lack of detailed information with respect to human behaviour and tastes; 38 Methodology • Political and ethical issues, such as the selection of discount rate; • The need to assume some scenario of the future for any long term impacts; • The fact that some types of damage cannot be quantified at all. It is important to note that some of the most important uncertainties listed here are not associated with technical or scientific issues, instead they relate to political and ethical issues, and questions relating to the development of world society. It is also worth noting that, in general, the largest uncertainties are those associated with impact assessment and valuation, rather than quantification of emissions and other burdens. Traditional statistical techniques would ideally be used to describe the uncertainties associated with each of our estimates, to enable us to report a median estimate of damage with an associated probability distribution. Unfortunately this is rarely possible without excluding some significant aspect of error, or without making some bold assumption about the shape of the probability distribution. Alternative methods are therefore required, such as sensitivity analysis, expert judgement and decision analysis. In this phase of the study a more clearly quantified description of uncertainty has been attempted than previously. Further discussion is provided in Appendix VII, though it is worth mentioning that in this area of work uncertainties tend to be so large that additive confidence intervals usually do not make sense; instead one should specify multiplicative confidence intervals. The uncertainties of each stage of an impact pathway need to be assessed and associated errors quantified. The individual deviations for each stage are then combined to give an overall indication of confidence limits for the impact under investigation. 2.5 Priority Impacts Assessed in the ExternE Project 2.5.1 Fossil technologies The following list of priority impacts was derived for the fossil fuel chains considered in the earlier phases of ExternE. It is necessary to repeat that this list is compiled for the specific fuel chains considered by the present study, and should be reassessed for any new cases. The first group of impacts are common to all fossil fuel chains: 1. Effects of atmospheric pollution on human health; 2. Accidents affecting workers and/or the public; 3. Effects of atmospheric pollution on materials; 4. Effects of atmospheric pollution on crops; 5. Effects of atmospheric pollution on forests; 6. Effects of atmospheric pollution on freshwater fisheries; 39 ExternE National Implementation. Spain 7. Effects of atmospheric pollution on unmanaged ecosystems; 8. Impacts of global warming; 9. Impacts of noise. To these can be added a number of impacts that are fuel chain dependent: 10. Impacts of coal and lignite mining on ground and surface waters; 11. Impacts of coal mining on building and construction; 12. Resettlement necessary through lignite extraction; 13. Effects of accidental oil spills on marine life; 14. Effects of routine emissions from exploration, development and extraction from oil and gas wells. 2.5.2 Nuclear technologies The priority impacts of the nuclear fuel chain to the general public are radiological and nonradiological health impacts due to routine and accidental releases to the environment. The source of these impacts are the releases of materials through atmospheric, liquid and solid waste pathways. Occupational health impacts, from both radiological and non-radiological causes, were the next priority. These are mostly due to work accidents and radiation exposures. In most cases, statistics were used for the facility or type of technology in question. When this was not possible, estimations were taken from similar type of work or extrapolated from existing information. Impacts on the environment of increased levels of natural background radiation due to the routine releases of radionuclides have not been considered as a priority impact pathway, except partially in the analysis of major accidental releases. 2.5.3 Renewable technologies The priority impacts for renewables vary considerably from case to case. Each case is dependent upon the local conditions around the implementation of each fuel chain. For the wind fuel chain (European Commission, 1995f) the following were considered: 1. Accidents affecting the public and/or workers; 2. Effects on visual amenity; 3. Effects of noise emissions on amenity; 40 Methodology 4. Effects of atmospheric emissions related to the manufacture of turbines and construction and servicing of the site. Whilst for the hydro fuel chain (European Commission, 1995f) another group was considered: 1. Occupational health effects; 2. Employment benefits and local economic effects; 3. Impacts of transmission lines on bird populations; 4. Damages to private goods (forestry, agriculture, water supply, ferry traffic); 5. Damages to environmental goods and cultural objects. 2.5.4 Related issues It is necessary to ask whether the study fulfils its objective of consistency between fuel chains, when some impacts common to a number of fuel chains have only been considered in a select number of cases. In part this is due to the level of impact to be expected in each case - if the impact is likely to be large it should be considered in the externality assessment. If it is likely to be small it may be legitimate to ignore it, depending on the objectives of the analysis. In general we have sought to quantify the largest impacts because these are the ones that are likely to be of most relevance to questions to which external costs assessment is appropriate. 2.6 Summary This Chapter has introduced the ‘impact pathway’ methodology of the ExternE Project. The authors believe that it provides the most appropriate way of quantifying externalities because it enables the use of the latest scientific and economic data. Critical to the analysis is the definition of fuel chain boundaries, relating not only to the different stages considered for each fuel chain, but also to the: • Location of each stage; • Technologies selected for each stage; • Identified burdens; • Identified impacts; • Valuation criteria; • Spatial and temporal limits of impacts. 41 ExternE National Implementation. Spain In order to achieve consistency it is necessary to draw very wide boundaries around the analysis. The difficulty with successfully achieving an assessment on these terms is slowly being resolved through the development of software and databases that greatly simplify the analysis. The definition of ‘system boundary’ is thus broader than is typically used for LCA. This is necessary because our analysis goes into more detail with respect to the quantification and valuation of impacts. In doing so it is necessary to pay attention to the site of emission sources and the technologies used. We are also considering a wider range of burdens than is typical of LCA work, including, for example, occupational health effects and noise. The analysis requires the use of numerous models and databases, allowing a logical path to be followed through the impact pathways. The functions and other data originally used by ExternE were described in an earlier report (European Commission, 1995b). In the present phase of the study this information has been reassessed and many aspects of it have been updated (see European Commission, 1998). It is to be anticipated that further methodological changes will be needed in the future, as further information becomes available particularly regarding the health effects of air pollution and global warming impacts, which together provide some of the most serious impacts quantified under the study. 42 3. COAL FUEL CYCLE 3.1 Definition of the coal fuel cycle, technology and site 3.1.1 Technology description This fuel cycle was assessed in the first stage of the participation of CIEMAT within the ExternE Project (Linares et al, 1995). It has now been updated, according to the latest information. The reference technology for this fuel cycle is a hypothetical 1050 MW power plant, which would be installed in Valdecaballeros, in Southwestern Spain. This hypothetical plant would be based on 1990 technology, with FGD, ESP, and low NOx burners. Coal would come from Puertollano coal mines, some 200 km away from the site. The stages of this fuel cycle are shown in the following diagram. Plant construction Coal extraction Fuel transport Power generation ELECTRICITY Waste disposal Limestone extraction Limestone transport Plant dismantling Figure 3.Error! Unknown switch argument. Stages of the coal fuel cycle 43 ExternE National Implementation. Spain 3.1.1.1 Coal extraction Coal will be extracted from the open-cast mine located in Puertollano, some 200 km away from Valdecaballeros. The area occupied by the mine is around 32,000 ha. Nowadays, this mine produces 700 kt/yr of coal. For the case studied, some 4.2 Mt would be required, so the production of the mine should be increased. The basic mining operations are as follows. First the topsoil is ragged off, and the mine refuse is spreaded at the back of the mining area. Then there is a drilling and controlled blasting stage, and the coal is extracted with diggers, and transported by dumpers to the treatment area. The treatment consists in crushing and screening, to obtain marketable coal. In order to avoid the physical impact of the mining, soil restoration is permanently carried out. A diagram of this stage is shown in the following diagram. 4.2 Mt coal/yr 1,680 workers Occupational accidents Mining equipment COAL EXTRACTION Air emissions 79 t/yr NOx 5.6 t/yr SO2 4400 t/yr PM10 47.6 t/yr CO 7.9 t/yr HC 26348 t/yr CO2 Figure 3.Error! Unknown switch argument. Coal extraction The characteristics of the coal extracted are shown in the following table. 44 Coal Fuel Cycle Table 3.Error! Unknown switch argument. Characteristics of Puertollano coal PROXIMATE ANALYSIS (%w dry basis) Fixed carbon 39.09 Volatiles 25.44 Ashes 35.47 ULTIMATE ANALYSIS (%w dry basis) Carbon 52.22 Oxygen 6.49 Sulphur 1.29 Hydrogen 3.33 Nitrogen 1.12 Chlorine 0.07 Phosphorus 0.0096 Ash 35.47 HIGH HEATING VALUE: 4899 kcal/kg dry basis 3.1.1.2 Coal transport Coal will be transported by train through the railway line Madrid-Badajoz. The distance to the power plant is around 200 km. The trainload per trip will be 1,000 t, so 4,200 trips per year will be required. Air emissions corresponding to this transport have been scaled from Lauffen values (European Commission, 1995c). The inputs and outputs of this stage are shown in the following figure. 4,200 trips 840,000 km 4.2 Mt coal COAL TRANSPORT Railway accidents 4.2 Mt coal Air emissions 38136 t/yr CO 2 28 t/yr NO x 26 t/yr SO 2 1964 t/yr PM 10 Figure 3.Error! Unknown switch argument. Coal transport stage 45 ExternE National Implementation. Spain 3.1.1.3 Limestone production The annual limestone demand to feed the FGD is 262,500 t. It will be extracted from a quarry located some 50 km away from the power plant. 262,500 t limestone Quarrying equipment 105 workers LIMESTONE PRODUCTION Occupational accidents Air emissions 171 t/yr PM10 211 t/yr NOx Figure 3.Error! Unknown switch argument. Limestone production 3.1.1.4 Limestone transport Limestone will be transported in 25-t trucks, to the power plant. 46 Coal Fuel Cycle 5880 trips 294,000 km 262,500 t limestone 262,500 t limestone LIMESTONE TRANSPORT Road accidents Air emissions 1341 t/yr CO2 257 t/yr NOx 1 t/yr SO2 60 t/yr PM10 Figure 3.Error! Unknown switch argument. Limestone transport 3.1.1.5 Power generation The technology selected is Pulverized Fuel combustion. The plant will consist of three groups with an installed electric power of 350 MW each, and will have an overall production of 7,500 GWh/yr. Each group is composed by a boiler, and a turboalternator, and they share the same stack, coalyard, and disposal ash system. The cooling system is based on a reservoir built for that purpose next to the plant. The overall net efficiency is 33.1%. In order to reduce the atmospheric emissions, the plant will be equipped with cyclones, effective electrostatic precipitators (ESP), flue gas desulphurization (FGD), and low NOx burners. The efficiencies of these devices are 99.8% for the cyclones and ESP, 90% for the FGD, and 50% for the low NOx burners. The construction period will last for three years, and the plant lifetime is estimated to be 150,000 full load hours. An input-output diagram of this stage is shown on the following figure. 47 ExternE National Implementation. Spain Occupational accidents 191,800 t steel 532,600 t concrete 6,800 t other materials PLANT CONSTRUCTION 7,500 GWh 4.2 Mt coal 262,500 t limestone Air emissions 333 kg SO2 1 t NOx 421 kg PM10 326 t CO2 Occupational accidents PLANT OPERATION 1.32 Mt ashes 451,500 t gypsum Air emissions 7612 kt CO2 2258 t PM10 8850 t SO2 12765 t NOx 2766 m3water/day PLANT DISMANTLING Occupational accidents Figure 3.Error! Unknown switch argument. Power generation stage 3.1.1.6 Waste disposal The most significant waste products of this coal fuel cycle are ashes and gypsum. These solid wastes will be transported by truck to a landfill and to cement industries, sited some 50 km away from the power plant. 48 Coal Fuel Cycle 52,970 trips 2,648,500 km 1.32 Mt ash WASTE DISPOSAL 451,500 t gypsum Road accidents Air emissions 16,204 t/yr CO2 302 t/yr NOx 17 t/yr SO2 732 t/yr PM10 Figure 3.Error! Unknown switch argument. Waste disposal 3.1.2 Site description 3.1.2.1 Geographical location The site proposed for the location of the coal power plant is Valdecaballeros, in the province of Badajoz, in Southern Spain. The site has been chosen because of the existence of a nonfinished nuclear plant on it, of which some infrastructure might be used for our power plant. The proposed site is 4 km away from the nearest village, Valdecaballeros, 180 km to the Southwest of Madrid, in a sparsely populated area, with abundance of Mediterranean forests and mostly devoted to agriculture. Error! Unknown switch argument. shows the location of the power plant within Spain. 49 ExternE National Implementation. Spain Madrid Power plant Badajoz Figure 3.Error! Unknown switch argument. Situation of the power plant within Badajoz and Spain. The area is crossed from east to west by the Guadiana river, and is surrounded by several mountain ranges, of which the most important in Sierra de Guadalupe range, to the northwest of the site, with a maximum height of 1,443 m. To the southwest lies the Serena valley, which is a flat area with an average altitude of 350 m. The geographical data of the site are the following: Municipality: Valdecaballeros Province: Badajoz Region: Extremadura Latitude: 39º 17’27 N Longitude: 5º 10’40 W Altitude: 383.42 m UTM coordinates: x = 312, 178.94 y = 4,351,531.81 Local impacts will be studied for an area 100x100 km around the power plant. 50 Coal Fuel Cycle 3.1.2.2 Topography The area is bordered to the NW by the Sierra de Guadalupe and to the N and NNE by the Sierra de Altamira. Villuercas and Cervales peaks, with an altitude of 1,200 m and 1,443 m can be seen from the site at angles of 2º39’ and 2º02’ respectively, being 26,5 and 29,5 km away. To the ESE lies Sierra de la Rinconada, which reaches 1º04’ over the horizon at a distance of 16.5 km. A 669 m-high hill about 8 km away can be seen at an angle of 1º58’, and another to the SW, at 7 km distance has an angle of 1º41 on the horizontal plane. This can be observed in Error! Unknown switch argument.. To the SW, along the Guadiana river valley, lies the flat area known as Serena Valley with an average altitude of 350 m. Figure 3.Error! Unknown switch argument. Topography of the area 51 ExternE National Implementation. Spain 3.1.2.3 Hydrology Surface waters The power plant will be sited on the right-hand bank of the Guadalupejo river, a tributary of river Guadiana. This Guadiana river is the main watercourse of the area, fed by several tributaries, including: Zújar, Estena, Estenilla, Guadarranque, Guadalupejo, and Ruecas. Besides from the small reservoir located beside the site, with a maximum normal capacity of 554 hm3, other large reservoirs exist inside the area, used both for irrigation and electricity production purposes. These are Cijara (1,670 hm3), Orellana (824 hm3), Zújar (723 hm3), and García de Sola (554 hm3). These reservoirs are fed mainly by the river flow, with very little contribution from underground waters or surface runoff. Underground waters Two basic types of aquifer can be found in the region: one located in the Ordovician quartzites, with permeability though fissuring and with a well defined environment, and another one made up of detritus material of the Miocene and Quaternary with permeability through porosity. Ordovician quartzites This aquifer can be found in a quartzite synclinal to the SW of the area. It is a very closed structure, with intense tectonics that facilitate infiltration. It covers an area of some 13 km2, and is flanked by piedmontite deposits. Below, slate and whinstone can be found, which form an impermeable horizon. One of its springs supplies Valdecaballeros. Water reserves are estimated to be not greater than 5 hm3. Water quality is excellent, with a very small number of dissolved solids, always lower than 100 mg/l. They are very slightly bicarbonated, neutral or slightly acidic. Detritus aquifers They include two types: Miocene and fanglomeratic sediments: The geometry of these aquifers is irregular. They are fed directly and have no more than 15% of useful rainfall. This is favoured by the eminent flatness of the infiltration surface. In winter there may be flooded areas as a result of saturation, because of low transmisiveness. There are few instalations exploiting these aquifers. They are generally broad diameter wells, 3-6 m deep. Water quality is good, with low dissolved solid content (100 mg/l). Quaternary sediments: Two aquiferal strata in very close contact can be distinguished: flood and alluvial plains. 52 Coal Fuel Cycle Flood plains aquifers are located between the quartzite alignment of Valdecaballeros and Sildavillo river, and near to Castiblanco. They extend over 50 km2. They are made up of gravels, sands and clays in variable proportions. They are fed directly by rainfall. Natural drainage takes place towards the alluvials which it feeds. Water level in summer is around 2 m, and in winter there may be even flooded areas. Water quality is good, with a dissolved solids content between 100 and 200 mg/l. It is slightly bicarbonated and chlorinated. There are only traces of nitrates. Alluvial aquifers surround Guadalupejo and Sildavillo rivers, and a certain number of streams. They are fed mainly by surface runoff, and by the adjacent flood plains and rainfall. Transmissiveness is good, allowing 2.5 l/s flows. Water quality is very good, with dissolved solid contents less than 100 mg/l, and chlorides and carbonates present in very small quantities. Two of the aquifers, the alluvial quaternary, and the ordovician quartzite ones, are locally exploited, what has to be taken into account for potential pollution problems. Generally, they are used for irrigation and livestock, and in some cases as drinking water. Alluvial quaternary aquifers have a high risk of chemical and biological contamination, as they are free aquifers with a water table near the surface. This surface has generally well developed soils, which are suitable for agricultural exploitation, and are therefore likely to contain fertilizers and pesticides residues. 3.1.2.4 Climatology In general terms, the climate of the area may be considered as continental, mitigated in winter and spring by the Atlantic influence, coming with westerly winds. Winters are not excessively cold, and very wet. Summer temperatures can be very high. The most intense precipitations are produced by depressions near the Portuguese coasts, or SE England, and are accompanied by westerly winds. The amound of precipitation varies greatly, increasing with altitude. The Sierra de Guadalupe range and its foothills cause the precipitation to settle, affecting to a certain extent the Valdecaballeros area, where precipitation is greater than the average of the region. Winds tend not to be strong, and the danger of hurricanes is negligible. Meteorological data has been obtained from the weather station located in the power plant site. However, as relatively little time has been recorded, these data have only been used as complementary. Basic data have been obtained from the weather station of Guadalupe, 24 km away from the site (lat 39º27 ‘N, long 5º19’W, alt 640 m). Data for 40 years have been used to calculate the annual and monthly averages. 53 ExternE National Implementation. Spain Error! Unknown switch argument. presents the Guadalupe’s area main weather characteristics. Table 3.Error! Unknown switch argument. Meteorological data for Guadalupe Solar radiation (cal/cm2day) Average daily insolation(hours) Wind speed (m/s) Abs. max T (ºC) Avg max. T (ºC) Avg T (ºC) Avg min T (ºC) Abs min T (ºC) Avg. Precip. (mm) Max precip. in 24h (mm) Relative Hum. (%) ETP Thornthwaite (mm) ETP Penman (mm) E 166.4 F 220.4 M 334.9 A 434.6 M 536.1 J 598.7 J 618.5 A 551.7 S 431.6 O 284.0 N 186.9 D 147.4 Annual 4.1 4.3 6.0 7.3 9.1 10.6 11.4 10.6 8.8 6.1 4.6 3.9 7.2 1.84 21 10.0 7.0 3.9 -4.0 119.9 97.0 2.11 23 11.3 7.9 4.5 -7 107.0 86 2.01 27 14.4 10.4 6.4 -6 80.8 60 2.49 30 16.4 12.3 8.1 -2 75.8 83 2.90 35 21.2 16.5 11.7 2 3.0 44.4 2.64 42 26.3 21.0 15.7 2 31.2 42 2.82 42 31.6 25.6 19.7 9.5 7.2 34.5 2.29 41 30.3 24.7 19.1 0 10.3 40.5 2.10 44 27.0 22.0 17.0 7 33.8 62.6 2.05 32 19.8 16.0 12.2 3 80.5 62 1.44 27 14.1 10.8 7.4 -2 124.8 80 2.11 23 10.7 7.7 4.6 -5 136.5 96 2.23 44 19.4 15.2 10.9 -7 860.8 97 87 13.8 84 16.5 79 31.3 73 43.8 64 77.4 55 114.3 46 158.3 47 140.4 56 103.2 68 56.7 80 27.0 87 15.4 68.8 798.1 10.9 22.6 58.5 82.6 127.6 140.4 147.9 109.5 76.4 41.2 14.2 6.4 838.4 3.1.2.5 Land use General distribution As has been mentioned before, the major part of the area is rural, with a large amount of agricultural land and pastures. Forests are also quite important, specially Mediterranean open forest or dehesa. Data on land use has been obtained from the Ministry of Agriculture, on a municipal basis. Error! Unknown switch argument. shows the overall distribution for the area. Other 11% Forests 39% Agriculture 32% Pastures 18% Figure 3.Error! Unknown switch argument. General land distribution 54 Coal Fuel Cycle Agriculture The most important crops are olives, grapes, oats, barley and wheat. The following figures show the relative surface and value of this crops. Surface Wheat 9% Others 19% Barley 13% Olives 35% Oats 21% Grapes 3% Figure 3.Error! Unknown switch argument. Surface distribution of the main crops Value Wheat 5% Barley 7% Others 27% Oats 7% Grapes 8% Olives 46% Figure 3.Error! Unknown switch argument. Value distribution of the main crops Ecosystems Cijara National Hunting Reserve It comprises the area beside Cijara reservoir, within the municipalities of Helechosa de los Montes, Villarta de los Montes, Fuenlabrada de los Montes, and Herrera del Duque, covering 68,787 ha. It is mostly covered by timber forests, mainly Pinus pinea and Pinus pinaster. Natural vegetation includes evergreen oak, cork oak, Cistus sp, Arbutus unedo, and other shrubs. There is an abundant wildlife, such as deer, wild boar, game, and other species. Some 25,000 m3 of timber are collected each year. In addition, 25,000 cows, 40,000 sheep, and 8,000 goats graze in the area. Agricultural crops are not significant. The largest revenue comes from hunting and fishing licenses. 55 ExternE National Implementation. Spain Orellana and Sierra de Pela This area covers the Orellana reservoir, including the Sierra de Pela range. It is part of the municipalities of Talarrubias, Puebla de Alcocer, and Casas de Don Pedro. Its extension is 24,842 ha. The dominant landscape is the dehesa, along with croplands and olive groves. This area has been declared Special Bird Protection Zone, because of its important bird population. Puerto Peña The area, mainly that surrounding García de Sola reservoir, covers part of the municipalities of Herrera del Duque, Valdecaballeros, Castilblanco, Talarrubias, Fuenlabrada de los Montes, Garbayuela, and Puebla de Alcocer, over more than 22,000 ha. Natural vegetation includes evergreen and cork oak, and different shrubs. Hunting species are abundant in the area. Its main revenues come from timber (1,300 m3/yr of pine), crops (4,000 ha), livestock (3,500 cows, 45,000 sheep, 7,600 goats), hunting and fishing. Sierra de las Villuercas Its extension is 23,025 ha, covering part of the municipalities of Guadalupe, Alía, Cañamero, Villar del Pedroso, Cabañas del Castillo, Robledollano, Navalvillar de Ibor, Castañar de Ibor, and Navezuelas. It features the highest peak of the area, as well as several rivers. Vegetation is very diversified, with trees, shrubs, and land crops. There is a very rich wildlife, specially birds. The most important source of revenue for the area is agriculture and livestock. 3.1.2.6 Population The total population of the local area is 110,330, according to Eurostat. This results in a population density of 11 inh/km2, what is very low, much lower than the population density of the province of Badajoz (31.75 inh/km2) or that of Spain (78 inh/km2). The population distribution according to age is shown in the following table. Table 3.Error! Unknown switch argument. Population distribution according to age Children (under 5 years) 6.6% Children (under 15 years) 22.01% Adults 77.99% 56 Coal Fuel Cycle 3.2 Overview of burdens The major burdens identified for this fuel cycle are the atmospheric emissions of pollutants from the mining and power generation stage, liquid effluents and solid wastes from mining and power generation, and occupational accidents from the mining stage. 3.2.1 Atmospheric emissions Pollutant emissions are produced all along the fuel cycle, due both to the contribution of fossil fuels, and also to the fugitive dust removed in some operations. Table 3.Error! Unknown switch argument. Atmospheric emissions of the coal fuel cycle (in g/MWh) 1. Coal mining 2. Coal transport 4. Limestone extraction 5. Limestone transport 6. Power generation 8. Waste transport TOTAL nd : not determined PM10 588 262 22.8 8.0 301 98 1279 SO2 0.8 3.5 nd 0.1 1180 2.3 1187 NOx 10.5 3.7 28.1 34 1702 40 1819 CO2 3513 5085 nd 179 1,015,000 2160 1,025,937 CO 6.3 nd nd nd nd nd 6.3 HC 1.1 nd nd nd nd nd 1.1 As may be seen, most of the pollutants come from the power generation stage, except for the particulate emissions, which are also very high for the coal extraction and transport stages, in which large amounts of fugitive dust are released. 3.2.2 Liquid effluents Liquid effluents arise from the mining stage, because of the drainage required for the water bags existing in the mine. These waters have a higher sulphate, iron and manganese contents than allowed, and so they have to be treated. This treatment includes precipitation, separation, and pH adjustment. The exiting water has a pH between 5.5 and 9.5, 2 mg/l of condensed materials, 10 mg/l iron, 10 mg/l manganese, and 2,000 mg/l sulphates. The total amount of water released is 4,400 m3 per year. There are also water effluents from the power generation stage, associated to the cooling system, FGD plant, coalyard, solid waste disposal, and the boiler. The most important are those coming from the FGD and from the cooling system, amounting respectively to 800,000 m3 and 21,000 m3 per year. 3.2.3 Solid wastes As for the rest of the fuel cycle, solid wastes are produced mainly in the power generation and mining stages 57 ExternE National Implementation. Spain The solid wastes generated in the mining phase are the gypsum produced in the waste treatment, of which 1,120,000 t are produced yearly, and the non-combustible fraction of the coal, which is spreaded at the back of the mine. Regarding the power generation, the solid wastes produced are ashes and slags, and gypsum from the FGD. 20% of the ash is furnace bottom ash, while the rest is fly ash captured in the ESP. The annual volume produced is 1.32 Mt. The gypsum produced as a final product of the FGD amounts to 451,500 t per year. 3.2.4 Occupational accidents As said before, most of the occupational accidents are produced in the mining stage. However, it has to be said that the accident rate used here comes from the whole Spanish mining sector, in which most mines are underground. Open-cast mines, such as the one studied here, should have lower accident rates. Table 3.Error! Unknown switch argument. Occupational accidents per TWh 1. Coal mining 4. Limestone extraction 6. Power generation 10-11. Construction and dismantling nd : not determined Fatal accidents 1.5e-1 5.0e-3 1.7e-2 9.3e-3 Major injuries 14 1.6e-1 4.5e-1 0.27 Minor injuries 63.8 7.4e-1 17 9.5 3.3 Selection of priority impacts The impacts considered in this fuel cycle are shown in the next table. Table 3.Error! Unknown switch argument. Impacts of the biomass/lignite fuel cycle. Impacts Mining Transport Generation Waste disposal Construction Global warming x x x x x Public health x x x x Occupational health x x x x Crops x x x Forests x x x Ecosystems x x x x Materials x x x Noise x x x x Road traffic x x Visual impact x x x x 58 Coal Fuel Cycle The impacts considered most relevant are those caused by atmospheric emissions from the power generation stage on human health, materials, crops and ecosystems, and global warming. Although PM10 emissions from the mining stage are really large it is expected that their impact will not be too high, since they are emitted near the ground level, and so they are quickly deposited. Thus, they probably affect only mine workers, and this effect is already included in the occupational accidents and diseases. Liquid effluents both from the mining and power generation are expected to have significant effects. However, their quantification is not yet possible. Accounting for all this, the priority impacts to be assessed are: • Public health, • Occupational health, • Crops, • Ecosystems, • Materials, • Global warming. 3.4 Quantification of impacts and damages 3.4.1 Coal extraction Coal extraction has several environmental consequences, specially impacts on miners health, and also water pollution. Nevertheless, most of these impacts are difficult to quantify. Impacts on miners health may be estimated using dose-response functions. However, these functions have been estimated for underground mines, and so they are difficult to extrapolate to open-cast mines, in which these impacts are expected to be much lower. Therefore, only occupational accidents have been taken into account. These accidents have been estimated using the accident rate provided by the Ministry of Labour. As most Spanish mines are underground, data on accidents will not be adapted to surface mining, thus resulting in a probable overestimation of the results. As for water pollution impacts, there is not yet a clear methodology for assessing them, and so this has not been attempted. 59 ExternE National Implementation. Spain As mentioned before, PM10 impacts from the mining will not be considered, nor local impacts such as noise or visual impact. Table 3.Error! Unknown switch argument. Impacts and damages of coal extraction Impact Occupational accidents Deaths Major injuries Minor injuries Global warming na: not applicable Burden Impacts Unit per TWh 1.5e-1 14.0 63.8 CO2 mECU/kWh 4.7e-1 1.7 1.2e-1 1.3e-2 - 4.9e-1 Damages ECU/t poll. σg na na na 3.8 - 139 A A A C 3.4.2 Coal transport The impacts of coal transport have been assessed using German data, which assign a proportional share of all railroad deaths to coal transport, based on the total weight of material transported (European Commission, 1995c) Table 3.Error! Unknown switch argument. Impacts and damages of fuel transport Impact Occupational accidents Deaths Major injuries Minor injuries Public accidents Deaths Major injuries Minor injuries Global warming na: not applicable Burden Impacts Unit per TWh mECU/kWh Damages ECU/t poll. σg 1.5e-2 1.2e-1 10.1 4.7e-2 1.5e-2 1.9e-2 na na na A A A 2.9e-2 1.7e-2 7.9-e2 9.0e-2 2.1e-3 1.5e-4 1.9e-2 - 7.1e-1 na na na 3.8 - 139 A A A C CO2 3.4.3 Limestone production Accident rates for non-energetic mineral extraction have been used, in the absence of data for quarry workers. The productivity used has been that of surface mining. Table 3.Error! Unknown switch argument. Impacts and damages of limestone production Impact Occupational accidents Deaths Major injuries Minor injuries na: not applicable 60 Burden Impacts Damages Unit per TWh mECU/kWh ECU/t poll. 5.0e-3 1.6e-1 7.4e-1 1.6e-2 2.0e-2 1.4e-3 na na na σg A A A Coal Fuel Cycle 3.4.4 Limestone transport The major impact of this stage is that produced by road accidents, which have been estimated based on Spanish truck accident rates. Table 3.Error! Unknown switch argument. Impacts and damages of limestone transport Impact Road accidents Deaths Major injuries Minor injuries Global warming na: not applicable Burden Impacts Unit per TWh 1.8e-3 4.9e-3 2.2e-2 CO2 mECU/kWh 5.6e-3 6.1e-4 4.2e-5 1.0e-3 - 2.5e-2 Damages ECU/t poll. na na na 3.8 - 139 σg A A A C 3.4.5 Power generation The major part of the damages of this stage correspond to health effects caused by the atmospheric emissions of the power plant, and to the global warming effects of CO2 emissions. As mentioned before, no impacts of liquid effluents have been assessed, although they might be significant. The damage on crops is quite small compared to the others. However, it has to be noted that only the impact on cereals, potatoes, and sugar beet has been assessed, while the most important and valuable crops of the area are others. This fact should produce an underestimation of the damages. As for occupational accidents, results include those of the power plant construction and dismantling. 61 ExternE National Implementation. Spain Table 3.Error! Unknown switch argument. Impacts and damages of power generation Impact Human health Chronic YOLL Acute YOLL Morbidity Crops Ecosystems Materials Occupational accidents Deaths Major injuries Minor injuries Global warming na: not applicable Burden TSP Nitrates Sulfates SO2 Ozone Nitrates Ozone SO2 Sulfates TSP SO2 Ozone N dep. Impacts Unit per TWh years years years years 2.37e+1 1.43e+2 7.53e+1 9.82e-1 cases 8.91e+3 cases cases cases dt yield loss 3.75e-1 4.69e+3 1.48e+3 9.09e+5 kg fertilizer added Ac. dep. kg lime added N dep. km2 exceed. area SO2 km2 exceed. area NOx km2 exceed. area SO2 m2 maint. area mECU/kWh Damages ECU/t poll. σg -1.25e+5 2.00 12.1 6.35 1.52e-1 7.01e-1 1.55 1.25 2.95e-3 7.95e-1 2.58e-1 3.39e-2 5.96e-1 -2.2e-3 6661 7098 5418 130 412 909 732 3 678 859 29 350 na B B? B B B A-B? B A-B A-B A-B A B A 1.04e+6 1.78e-2 na A 0 na 0 0 na 0 0 na 0 7.45e+3 1.20e-1 102 B 1.7e-2 4.5e-1 17 5.3e-2 5.6e-2 3.2e-2 3.9 - 141 na na na 3.8 - 139 A A A C CO2 3.4.6 Waste disposal The major impact from this stage is the increment in road accidents caused by the road transport of the solid wastes. Table 3.Error! Unknown switch argument. Impacts and damages of waste disposal Impact Road accidents Deaths Major injuries Minor injuries Global warming na: not applicable 62 Burden Impacts Damages Unit per TWh mECU/kWh ECU/t poll. 1.9e-1 5.9e-2 2.7e-1 CO2 5.9e-1 7.3e-3 5.2e-4 8e-3 – 3e-1 na na na 3.8 - 139 σg A A A C Coal Fuel Cycle 3.5 Summary and interpretation of results The summary of the externalities assessed for the coal fuel cycle is shown in the following table. Table 3.Error! Unknown switch argument. Damages of the coal fuel cycle mECU/kWh σg POWER GENERATION Public health Mortality*- YOLL (VSL) 21.4 (79.8) B of which TSP 2.0 (7.4) SO2 6.6 (27.4) NOx 12.1 (44.3) NOx (via ozone) 0.70 Morbidity of which TSP, SO2, NOx 2.6 A NOx (via ozone) 1.3 B Accidents nq A Occupational health 0.14 A Major accidents nq Crops 0.62 B of which SO2 1.8e-2 NOx (via ozone) 0.60 Ecosystems ng B Materials 0.12 B Noise nq Visual impacts nq Global warming C low 3.9 mid 3% 18.3 mid 1% 46.7 upper 141.1 OTHER FUEL CYCLE STAGES Public health 0.70 A Occupational health 2.41 A Ecological effects nq B Road damages nq A Global warming C low 0.04 mid 3% 0.20 mid 1% 0.50 upper 1.5 *Yoll= mortality impacts based on ‘years of life lost’ approach, VSL= impacts evaluated based on ‘value of statistical life’ approach. ng: negligible; nq: not quantified; iq: only impact quantified; - : not relevant 63 ExternE National Implementation. Spain Table 3.Error! Unknown switch argument. Sub-total damages of the coal fuel cycle YOLL (VSL) low mid 3% mid 1% upper mECU/kWh 33.2 (91.6) 47.8 (106.2) 76.5 (134.9) 171.9 (230.3) Table 3.Error! Unknown switch argument. Damages by pollutant SO2 *- YOLL (VSL) NOx *- YOLL (VSL) PM10 *- YOLL (VSL) NOx (via ozone) CO2 ECU / t of pollutant 6384 (24008) 8020 (26939) 7507 (25775) 1500 3.8 - 139 *Yoll= mortality impacts based on ‘years of life lost’ approach, VSL= impacts evaluated based on ‘value of statistical life’ approach. The damages of the coal fuel cycle are quite high, even though the technology considered includes most types of environmental protection systems, and the site chosen is not highly populated. Even though CO2 damages dominate the results at their higher estimate, damages excluding global warming are still high, about 30 mECU/kWh, which is the same magnitude as private costs. If global warming damages are included, then damages reach really high values, more than thrice of the private costs. Therefore, it may be seen that even environmentally-advanced, standard technologies for coal combustion are not clean enough if they are to compete with gas or renewable energies. Changes to fluidized-bed combustion or gasification cycles are required to lower the damages to reasonable terms, both by improving conversion efficiency (and thus reducing CO2 emissions) and by reducing pollutant emission rates. Of the impacts, it has to be noted that the largest correspond to global warming, and to human health effects of nitrates, both of which are indeed uncertain. More research on these topics would produce better estimates of the total damages of this fuel cycle. As for the impacts of the upstream stages of the fuel cycle, the most significant one is occupational accidents, although this figure may possibly be overestimated, as this impact might be internalized to a certain extent. In spite of these possible overestimations, it has to be reminded that some impacts which might prove to be significant have not been assessed, such as the impact of liquid effluents from the mine, or the impacts of waste disposal. 64 4. NATURAL GAS FUEL CYCLE 4.1 Definition of the natural gas fuel cycle, technology and site 4.1.1 Technology description The technology analyzed for this fuel cycle will be CCGT (combined cycle, gas turbine). The fuel used will be Algerian natural gas, and the power plant will have an installed power of 624 MW, working an average of 7,500 hours per year. The stages of the technology are shown in the following diagram. Construction Construction Construction Operation Operation Operation Dismantling PRODUCTION ELECTRICITY Dismantling TRANSPORT POWER GENERATION Figure 4.Error! Unknown switch argument. Stages of the fuel cycle These stages will be described in the following sections. 4.1.1.1 Production The gas will be extracted from the Algerian gas field of Hassi R’Mel. This gas field was discovered in 1956 and is one of the world’s largest gas fields, with proven reserves estimated 65 ExternE National Implementation. Spain at 2.5. 1012 m3. The daily production is 3.7 107 m3. The average composition of the gas produced in this field is shown in Error! Unknown switch argument.. Table 4.Error! Unknown switch argument. Average composition of Hassi R’Mel natural gas. Components Symbol Normal composition (%v) Methane CH4 91.2 Ethane C2H6 7.4 Propane C3H8 0.8 Butane C4H10 0.1 Nitrogen N2 0.5 Carbon dioxide CO2 Hydrogen sulphide H2S Others Source: SEDIGAS (1991) No data is available for this stage regarding greenhouse gas emissions, materials or labour use. However, since the gas used by the power plant studied will represent less than 1% of the gas produced in the gas field, the impacts attributable to the power plant are expected to be negligible. 4.1.1.2 Transport Natural gas from the Hassi R'Mel gas field will be transported to the power plant by the Maghreb-Europe pipeline. The outline of this pipeline is shown in the following figure. Valdecaballeros Magreb-Europe Project Gas pipeline in operation Gas pipeline in project Gas pipeline in study Compression station Gas field Hassi R´Mel Figure 4.Error! Unknown switch argument. The Maghreb-Europe pipeline 66 Natural Gas Fuel Cycle The pipeline has a total length of 1,595 km, from the gas field to the power plant. It is designed for carrying over 1,100,000 Nm3/h of natural gas for the first years, with the possibility of doubling its capacity later. The pipeline is buried, and avoids large population centres and ecologically sensitive areas, or those areas with archaeological importance. The environmental protection measures adopted have been the same both for the European and African sections. The environmental impact of the pipeline construction is expected to be very small, since the land affected is quite reduced (a 30 m wide corridor), and it is restored in a few months. For the crossing of the Strait of Gibraltar, no significant marine environmental impacts have been identified by the environmental impact assessments carried out. Valves are installed every 20 km along the pipeline, with associated equipment on the ground. Two compressor stations have been built in the section from the gas field to the power plant. However, only one of them is needed for the current gas volume transported. These compressor stations have an installed power of 25 MW, with an average consumption of 3,500 m3/h of the natural gas. The personnel needed for operation and maintenance of the pipeline is around 260 people, most of them for the African section. Due to the buried installation of the pipeline, its dismantling will not be considered. A diagram with the inputs and outputs of this stage is shown in the following figure. 600,000 t steel 8,000 workers (for 16 months) 1,596 km pipeline PIPELINE CONSTRUCTION Occupational accidents 33.6 t SO2 1275.6 t CO2 3 t NOx Occupational accidents 1,100,000 m3/h 260 workers PIPELINE OPERATION 26,124 t CO2 12,554 t CH4 40 kg NOx Pipeline accident risk Figure 4.Error! Unknown switch argument. Transportation stage 67 ExternE National Implementation. Spain Of the burdens identified, we will only assign to the fuel cycle studied the share corresponding to the power plant consumption of the total gas volume transported. 4.1.1.3 Power generation The natural gas energy will be transformed into electricity by means of a combined cycle, without additional combustion, and with an efficiency of 52%. The plant that will be considered is a hypothetical, gas fired combined cycle power plant, of 624 MW. The gas turbine chosen is representative of modern large industrial gas turbines which are applicable for combined cycle power plants. The steam cycle design and the choice of parameters are based on various sources, resulting in a typical steam cycle. A configuration with one gas turbine and one steam turbine has been selected. Two modular configuration with 312 MW have been used to obtain 624 MW in the combined cycle power plant . The gas turbine is the basic component of the power plant. The design of the rest of the equipments will be based on the gas turbine dimensions. The heat recovery boilers and the steam turbine would be provided by the same supplier of the gas turbine in order to ensure a better coupling of the two thermodynamic cycles. The steam cycle will operate with a double pressure without reheat system. The dual pressure systems are more or less standardized design. The triple pressure systems will probably not replace the dual pressure systems as the most common design approach, because of the increased plant complexity and significantly higher investment cost. The net plant efficiency (LHV basis, ISO conditions) will be around 52% and its availability would be expected to be around 95%. The technical lifetime of the plant will be around 30 years. Its operation requires some 100 workers. The plant construction period will be around 2 years. The materials required for construction have been escalated from similar plants. As for the environmental burdens of the operation, they include air emissions such as CO2, NOx, and SO2 (the latter due to the use of oil as backup fuel for a 5% of the total consumption), liquid emissions such as water purges or mineral oils, or solid emissions such as filter sands or sludges. The plant is equipped with low NOx burners. All the process, and its energy and material requirements, is shown in the following figure. 68 Natural Gas Fuel Cycle 600 workers (for 2 yrs) 20,000 m3 concrete 6,000 t steel 20,000 m3 cladding and roofing POWER PLANT CONSTRUCTION 810 t CO2 21 t SO2 2 t NOx Occupational accidents 4,640 GWh electricity 853,200 .103 Nm3 gas/year 100 workers POWER PLANT OPERATION POWER PLANT DISMANTLING 1,860,640 t CO2 795 t SO2 1200 t NOx Occupational accidents 80 t filter sands 48 t boiler acid wastes 2,000 t decarbonation sludges 250 t water make up sludges 34 t mineral oils 20,000 m3 concrete 6,000 t steel 20,000 m3 cladding and roofing Figure 4.Error! Unknown switch argument. Power generation stage 4.1.2 Site description Since the site chosen for the gas power plant is the same as for the coal fuel cycle assessed previously, refer to section 3.1.2 for the description of the site. 4.2 Overview of burdens The gas fuel cycle is rather clean compared to other fossil fuel cycles. Due to the nature of the fuel, the only major burdens are the atmospheric emissions caused by the power generation, and, to a lesser extent, solid wastes from power generation, and the risk of accidents along the pipeline. However, this latter is almost negligible. 4.2.1 Atmospheric emissions Atmospheric emissions are produced in all stages of the fuel cycle. Gas flaring and venting occur during the gas extraction and transport. Also during the transport stage, atmospheric emissions are produced in the compression stations, due to the gas consumption. 69 ExternE National Implementation. Spain Table 4.Error! Unknown switch argument. Atmospheric emissions of the gas fuel cycle (g/MWh) 1. Gas extraction 2. Gas transport 3. Power generation TOTAL nd : not determined PM10 nd nd nd nd SO2 nd nd 171 171 NOx nd 8.6e-4 259 259 CO2 nd 563 401,000 401,563 CH4 nd 271 nd 271 4.2.2 Solid wastes The solid wastes produced during the power generation stage include filter sands, boiler acid wastes, water make-up sludges, and decarbonation sludges. The latter is the major one, with some 2,000 t generated per year. 4.3 Selection of priority impacts Due to the relatively low emissions of the natural gas fuel cycle, almost all the impacts will be concentrated on global warming, public health effects, and on the effects of SO2 and NOx on crops, ecosystems, forests and materials. Error! Unknown switch argument. displays the impacts in each stage of the natural gas fuel cycle. Table 4.Error! Unknown switch argument. Impacts of the natural gas fuel cycle. Impacts Extraction Transport Generation Construction Global warming x x x x Public health x x Occupational health x x x Crops x x Forests x x Ecosystems x x Materials x x Noise x x Visual impact x x x Accident risk x x Noise and visual impacts are expected to be negligible. So, the priority impacts that will be assessed are: • Public health, • Occupational health, • Crops, 70 Natural Gas Fuel Cycle • Forests, • Ecosystems, • Materials, and • Global warming. 4.4 Quantification of impacts and damages 4.4.1 Extraction The major impact identified within this stage is the global warming produced by CO2 and CH4 emissions. However, no data is available for Algerian gas wells regarding these emissions. Anyway, their contribution to the total GHG emissions of the natural gas fuel cycle is expected to be negligible, so no impacts have been quantified for this stage. 4.4.2 Transport Again, the major impact for this stage is global warming, due to the CO2 emitted by the compressor stations in the pipeline, and also to the CH4 vented from the pipeline. Both occupational accidents from the pipeline construction and operation, and pipeline accident risks are very small. The effects on public health, or the environment, of the pollutant emissions released during the pipeline construction and operation, have not been estimated, as they are distributed along a very large area, and so the modelization of their dispersion is very complex. Nevertheless, these effects may be assumed to be negligible, since the pollutant emissions of this stage account for less than 1% of the total emissions of the fuel cycle. Table 4.Error! Unknown switch argument. Impacts and damages of the transport stage Impact Occupational accidentsEU Deaths Injuries Occupational accidentsNon-EU Deaths Injuries Accident risk- EU Deaths Injuries Accident risk- Non-EU Deaths Injuries Burden Impacts Unit per TWh mECU/kWh Damages ECU/t poll. σg 2.9e-4 1.3e-1 7.5e-4 2.5e-3 na na A A 1.1e-3 5.9e-1 3.0e-3 1.1e-2 na na A A 3.4e-5 1.3e-4 8.7e-5 2.4e-6 na na A A 3.5e-2 1.2e-4 8.4e-5 2.3e-6 na na A A 71 ExternE National Implementation. Spain Impact Global warming Burden Impacts Unit per TWh CO2 CH4 mECU/kWh 2e-3 – 7.8e-2 2.2e-2 – 8.2 e-1 Damages ECU/t poll. 3.8 - 139 81 - 2975 σg C C na: not applicable 4.4.3 Power generation The largest percentage of damage, besides from global warming, comes from chronic mortality, specially from nitrates. Damages per t of NOx are also the highest. Compared to public health effects, effects on crops and forests are negligible, being 3 to 4 orders of magnitude lower. However, it has to be noted that only cereals have been considered, not high-value crops like fruits or legumes, which are important specially in Mediterranean regions. Damages on materials, by contrast, are rather high, being only an order of magnitude lower than for public health effects. Local impacts have been calculated for crops, accounting for some 10% of the total impact. No local assessment has been carried out for human health effects for SO2. However, it is expected that the local contribution would be in the same range. It has to be noticed that this local assessment has been done using the MESOILT2 atmospheric dispersion model, instead of the ISC model included in EcoSense. Table 4.Error! Unknown switch argument. Impacts and damages of power generation Impact Human health Chronic YOLL Acute YOLL Morbidity Crops Ecosystems Materials Occupational accidents Deaths 72 Burden Nitrates Sulfates SO2 Ozone Nitrates Ozone SO2 Sulfates SO2 Ozone N dep. Impacts Unit per TWh years years years 2.16e+1 1.10e+1 1.45e-1 cases 1.33e+3 cases cases dt yield loss 5.53e-2 6.75e+2 3.89e+2 kg fertilizer added Ac. dep. kg lime added N dep. km2 exceed. area SO2 km2 exceed. area NOx km2 exceed. area m2 maint. SO2 area mECU/kWh Damages ECU/t poll. σg -1.92e+4 1.82 9.24e-1 2.24e-2 1.07e-1 2.34e-1 1.89e-1 4.35e-4 1.15e-1 2.84e-3 9.05e-2 -3.30e-4 7110 5430 132 412 914 732 2.56 676 16.7 350 na B? B B B A-B? B A-B A-B A B A 1.53e+5 2.61e-3 na A 0 na 0 0 na 0 0 na 0 1.11e+3 1.76e-2 103 B 8.4e-3 2.2e-2 na A Natural Gas Fuel Cycle Impact Major injuries Minor injuries Global warming na: not applicable Burden Impacts Unit per TWh 4.8e-2 1.82 mECU/kWh 6.0e-3 3.5e-3 1.5 - 55.7 CO2 Damages ECU/t poll. na na 3.8 - 139 σg A A C 4.5 Summary and interpretation of results Table 4.Error! Unknown switch argument. Damages of the natural gas fuel cycle POWER GENERATION Public health Mortality*- YOLL (VSL) of which TSP SO2 NOx NOx (via ozone) Morbidity of which TSP, SO2, NOx NOx (via ozone) Accidents Occupational health Major accidents Crops of which SO2 NOx (via ozone) Ecosystems Materials Noise Visual impacts Global warming low mid 3% mid 1% upper OTHER FUEL CYCLE STAGES Public health Outside EU Inside EU Occupational health Outside EU Inside EU Ecological effects Road damages Global warming low mid 3% mid 1% upper mECU/kWh σg 2.86 (10.8) ng 0.95 (4.0) 1.8 (6.7) 0.11 0.54 0.35 0.19 nq 3.2e-2 nq 9.4e-2 2.8e-3 9.1e-2 ng 1.8e-2 nq nq B A B A A B B B C 1.5 7.2 18.5 55.7 1.8e-4 8.6e-5 8.9e-5 1.7e-2 1.4e-2 3.3e-3 nq nq A A B A C 2.4e-2 1.2e-1 3.0e-1 9.0e-1 73 ExternE National Implementation. Spain *Yoll= mortality impacts based on ‘years of life lost’ approach, VSL= impacts evaluated based on ‘value of statistical life’ approach. ng: negligible; nq: not quantified; iq: only impact quantified; - : not relevant Table 4.Error! Unknown switch argument. Sub-total damages of the gas fuel cycle YOLL (VSL) low mid 3% mid 1% upper mECU/kWh 5.1 (13.0) 10.9 (18.8) 22.4 (30.3) 60.2 (68.1) Table 4.Error! Unknown switch argument. Damages by pollutant SO2 *- YOLL (VSL) NOx *- YOLL (VSL) PM10 *- YOLL (VSL) NOx (via ozone) CO2 ECU / t of pollutant 6392 (24163) 7849 (26796) 1500 3.8 - 139 *Yoll= mortality impacts based on ‘years of life lost’ approach, VSL= impacts evaluated based on ‘value of statistical life’ approach. As might be expected, damages from the gas fuel cycle are rather low, mainly due to the low pollutant emission rates. In addition, it has to be noted that the site chosen for this power plant is a sparsely populated one. However, these damages are only low if global warming damages are excluded, or if they are kept at their lowest range. When the upper estimate for these damages is considered, damages reach 60 mECU/kWh, what is higher than the private costs of gas-generated electricity. Even in this case, damages are lower than for coal or oil, mostly due to the higher conversion efficiencies of gas fuel cycles, and therefore, their lower CO2 specific emission rates. The impacts of upstream stages are also quite small, in spite of the long distance from which gas is transported. This might be explained by the relatively good conditions in which this transport is made, the pipeline being finished very recently. Would the gas come from other source with worse engineering practices, or by ship instead of pipeline, it is expected that the damages of the upstream stages would be larger. 74 5. BIOMASS/LIGNITES FUEL CYCLE 5.1 Definition of the biomass/lignites fuel cycle, technology and site 5.1.1 Technology description The assessment of this fuel cycle will be based on a hypothetical 20 MW CFBC power plant, which would be installed near Soria, in Northeastern Spain. The co-combustion of biomass and lignites has been considered an interesting option because of the environmental advantages that it may present, as well as for the use of domestic energy sources. The fuel contribution will be of 40% of forest residues, and 60% of black lignites. The extraction, transport and power generation stages have been analyzed, and are shown in the following diagram. Plant construction Forest residues collection Fuel transport Power generation ELECTRICITY Lignite extraction Waste disposal Plant dismantling Limestone extraction and transport Figure 5.Error! Unknown switch argument. Stages of the biomass/lignites fuel cycle 75 ExternE National Implementation. Spain 5.1.1.1 Forest residues collection Forest residues come from cleaning and thinning of existing pine forests in the area. This cleaning and thinning currently produce more than 300,000 t of residues per year, which have to be removed in order to prevent forest fires. Of them, 40,875 t will be used yearly as fuel for the power plant. Due to the alternative use of the residues, which would be burnt on the ground, and due to the small proportion of them being used for the power plant, we will assume that this biomass is CO2 free. Since these residues would have been collected anyway, we will assume that the marginal impacts of this stage, such as air emissions, or occupational accidents, are zero. The average composition of the forest residues to be used is shown in the following table. Table 5.Error! Unknown switch argument. Composition of forest residues PROXIMATE ANALYSIS (%w dry basis) Fixed carbon 21.41 Volatiles 75.56 Ashes 3.03 ULTIMATE ANALYSIS (%w dry basis) Carbon 51.28 Oxygen 40.34 Hydrogen 4.69 Nitrogen 0.51 Sulphur 0.15 HEATING VALUE: 4678 kcal/kg dry basis ASH ANALYSIS (%w dry basis) SiO2 46.06 CaO 29.05 K2O 13.06 Al2O3 10.91 P 2O 5 5.27 MgO 4.73 Fe2O3 4.48 5.1.1.2 Lignite production Black lignite will be extracted from open cast mines in Teruel. The black lignite resources of the area are estimated to be around 300 Mt, of which the amount needed by the power plant, 61,460 t/yr represents a very small percentage. The mining operation is common to other open air lignite exploitations. To extract the lignite a first drilling and blasting is done in order to separate the topsoil that covers the lignite and transport it to a refuse area. Then, lignite is extracted with diggers and transported to the 76 Biomass/Lignites Fuel Cycle treatment area. The lignite treatment in the mine consists of crushing and screening processes in order to separate the different lignite fractions from the refuse coal. The principal characteristics of the lignites from the Teruel area are summarized in the following table. Table 5.Error! Unknown switch argument. General characteristics of black lignites from the Teruel area. PROXIMATE ANALYSIS (%w dry basis) Fixed carbon 30.5 Volatiles 41.29 Ashes 28.21 ULTIMATE ANALYSIS (%w dry basis) Carbon 48.76 Oxygen 10.07 Sulphur 9.86 Hydrogen 2.2 Nitrogen 0.9 HEATING VALUE: 4773 kcal/kg dry basis ASH ANALYSIS (%w dry basis) SiO2 37.4 CaO 18.48 Al2O3 18.35 Fe2O3 9.3 K2O 3.03 MgO 2.01 Na2O 1.42 The inputs needed for lignite extraction, and the outputs produced, are shown in the following diagram. 61,460 t lignite/yr 35 workers Occupational accidents Mining equipment LIGNITE EXTRACTION Air emissions 47.31 t/yr TSP 2.94 t/yr NOx 0.34 t/yr SO2 52 t/yr CH4 121t/yr CO 0.36 t/yr VOC 160 t/yr CO2 Figure 5.Error! Unknown switch argument. Lignite extraction 77 ExternE National Implementation. Spain 5.1.1.3 Fuel transport Forest residues are normally transported as they are collected, in 5 to 24 t of capacity trucks. The biomass needed to feed the power plant for a year will be around 40,000 tons. If it is assumed that the larger trucks are used, the number of trips of these trucks to transport that amount of biomass from the forests to the plant will be around 1,700. Taking into account the forest residues production cited in section 5.1.1.1, the average transport distance for biomass would be 25 km. Assuming 250 working days per year, and that a single truck may do two to three trips per day, it would be necessary to have four trucks exclusively dedicated to the biomass transport to the plant. It will be assumed that 24 t trucks are also used for lignite transport. The load transported will be of about 60,000 tons per year. As the average transport distance is 200 km, only one trip per day is permited for a single truck. With similar assumptions that in the case of forest residues, the number of trucks necessary for the lignite transport will be of 12. The inputs and outputs of this stage are shown in the following figure. 14 workers 1,090,000 km 61,460 t lignite 61,460 t lignite 40,875 t biomass Road damages FUEL TRANSPORT Road accidents 40,875 t biomass Air emissions 292 t/yr CO2 0.46 t/yr TSP 5.40 t/yr NOx 0.39 t/yr SO2 1.40 t/yr VOC 6.42 t/yr CO Figure 5.Error! Unknown switch argument. Fuel transport stage 5.1.1.4 Limestone extraction and transport 40,000 t of limestone are needed for the fluidized bed. This limestone will be extracted from a quarry some 25 km away from the power plant. Its composition is shown in the following table. 78 Biomass/Lignites Fuel Cycle Table 5.Error! Unknown switch argument. Composition of the limestone %w CaCO3 93 MgCO3 5 Ash 2 Assuming a productivity for limestone extraction similar to that of an open cast mine, some 16 workers will be needed for the extraction of the amount needed for the power plant. The limestone will be transported to the power plant by road, with a distance travelled of 90,000 km per year. 20 workers 90,000 km Quarrying equipment 40,000 t limestone LIMESTONE EXTRACTION AND TRANSPORT Road damages Road accidents Air emissions 131 t/yr CO2 31.58 t/yr TSP 2.4 t/yr NOx 0.26 t/yr SO2 0.35 t/yr VOC 1.33 t/yr CO 34.7 t/yr CH4 Figure 5.Error! Unknown switch argument. Limestone extraction and transport 5.1.1.5 Power generation The technology for the conversion of biomass and lignite into electricity that has been selected is the fluidized bed combustion in a circulating fluidized bed combustor (CFBC). This technology was selected because of the possibility that has of combusting non-homogeneus fuels with different heating values, moisture content and particle size. The operational 79 ExternE National Implementation. Spain flexibility of fluidized bed boilers make them the most suitable option for the joint combustion of fuels for which other standard boilers are not adequate. Between the bubbling and the circulating fluidized bed boilers, it was selected the circulating fluidized bed type because of its slightly higher efficiency acknowledged in the literature. For the plant size considered, 20 MWe, the added complexity of the circulating boiler compared to the bubbling type may be compensated by the increase in efficiency. Biomass would be stored in a closed place to protect it from the rain and to favour its drying process. Depending on their moisture content and the combustion conditions of the boiler, forest residues could be stored for different periods of time. Normally, the climatic conditions of the studied area permit short storing periods for a good biomass combustion. As forest residues can be collected along the year, the storing place needs to have capacity to feed the plant for approximately 15 days (around 2,000 tons of forest residues). Lignites will be stored in stacks at open air. As in the case of biomass, it is necessary to maintain a security pool, in case of supply contingencies, to feed the plant for at least 15 days. This means approximately 3,000 tons of lignite. The following figure shows a general scheme of the power plant. BAGHOUSE FILTER BIOMASS AND LIGNITE STORAGE FUEL FEEDING SYSTEM STACK STEAM TURBINE CIRCULATING FLUIDIZED BED BOILER 20 MWe CONDENSER WATER SUPPLY WATER TREATMENT PLANT COOLING TOWERS Figure 5.Error! Unknown switch argument. General scheme of the power plant The high fluidizing velocity carries out the bed material into the recirculating cyclones. These cyclones separate the majority of the solids which are then returned to the base of the 80 Biomass/Lignites Fuel Cycle combustor through external heat exchangers. Most of the ash is removed from the base of the combustor together with the inert material and the spent limestone, which has been transformed into gypsum. The following table shows the composition of the spent bed material and the fly ash. Ashes will be disposed in a landfill near the power plant. The hot gases from the recirculation cyclones are used in a heat recovery steam generator (HRSG) to produce the steam necessary to generate electricity in the water-steam cycle. After the HRSG the gases from the CFBC are used to preheat the combustion air. The cooled gases are passed through a baghouse filter to retain the particulates, and before being exhausted through the stack. To produce electricity, a conventional water-steam cycle of one pressure level without reheat will be used. The steam is produced in the HRSG and the steam turbine inlet conditions are 80 bar and 520ºC. The gross electricity production will be 22.3 MW and there will be necessary 1.8 MW for ancillary consumption (solids reception, storage and handling, fans, pumps, lighting, etc.). The net electricity production will be 20 MW and the overall plant efficiency will be around 29%. There will be produced around 155,000 MWhel per year. The steam turbine has facilities for steam extraction to allow for transfer of steam to the water deaerator tank or other uses as the feedstock drying. The low pressure steam from the turbine is condensed and pumped to the water preheaters that are normally placed in the recirculating section of the CFBC, thus completing the steam cycle. The condenser is cooled with water from the cooling towers. The water needed in the plant is obtained from the river Mazo, that flows close to the plant location. As was mentioned before, the CO2 emissions considered have been only those due to the lignite combustion, since the biomass used is considered CO2-free. The construction period will be around two years and the materials used are similar to the ones used for the construction of a conventional power plant. Plant life is estimated to be 25 years. As it will be seen in later sections, the dismantling of the plant will be assumed to cause similar impacts that the plant construction. An input-output diagram of this stage is shown on the following figure. 81 ExternE National Implementation. Spain 225 workers (for two years) 10,000 t steel 35,000 t concrete 5,000 t cladding and roofing PLANT CONSTRUCTION Occupational accidents Road damages Air emissions 26 t SO2 4 t NOx 145 kg TSP 1085 t CO2 25 workers 277,118 m3 water 40,000 t limestone PLANT OPERATION 61,460 t lignite 40,875 t biomass PLANT DISMANTLING Occupational accidents 150,000 MWh 3,022 t bottom ash 16,830 t fly ash Air emissions 119,122 t CO2 34.5 t TSP 120 t SO2 60 t NOx 180 t CO Occupational accidents Road damages 10,000 t steel 35,000 t concrete 5,000 t cladding and roofing Air emissions 122 kg SO2 1989 kg NOx 145 kg TSP 107 t CO2 Figure 5.Error! Unknown switch argument. Power generation stage 5.1.1.6 Waste disposal The main waste products produced along the fuel cycle are the ashes generated in the power generation stage. These ashes will be disposed in a landfill sited very near to the power plant, so the impacts produced by the ash transport are expected to be negligible. 5.1.2 Site description 5.1.2.1 Geographical location The place chosen for the installation of the biomass power plant is the municipality of Almazán, in the province of Soria, in Northeastern Spain. The site is 20 km south from the capital (Soria) and 154 km to the Northeast of Madrid. Error! Unknown switch argument. shows the location within the region of Castilla-León and Spain. 82 Biomass/Lignites Fuel Cycle CASTILLALEÓN SORIA Almazán Madrid Figure 5.Error! Unknown switch argument. Situation of Almazán within the province of Soria, the region of Castilla-León and Spain. The site proposed for the location of the power plant is in the 206th km of the trunk road Medinaceli-Soria (N-111), 14 km away from the city of Almazán and 20 km away from the capital of the province, Soria. The coordinates of the site chosen in the municipality of Almazán are: Latitude: 41º 36’19’’ N Longitude: 2º 30’ 03’’ W Altitude: 1,100 m UTM co-ordinates: x = 542.500 y = 4,606.100 5.1.2.2 Topography The topography of the province of Soria is dominated by areas over 1,000 metres high, covering more than 70% of the total province area. As in the province of Soria, in the reference area (local level of study) most of the land has heights over 1,000 m. Only two different parts, one in the Northeast and the other in the Southeast, are lower than 800 m. An important area in the Northwest of the reference area has heights over 2,000 m. This area belongs to the Sierra de Urbión and Sierra Cebollera. The following figure shows the topography of the area. 83 ExternE National Implementation. Spain Figure 5.Error! Unknown switch argument. Topography of the local area studied 5.1.2.3 Hydrology Two main watersheds may be found in the area studied, those of Duero and Ebro rivers. The watershed of river Duero is regulated by the Cuerda del Pozo reservoir, located in the Northwest of the reference area of study, and by two initial influents, river Revinuesa and river Ebrillos. Near Soria, the river Duero receives the flows of river Tera and river Merdancho. Between the city of Soria and the border of the province, the most important influents of river Duero are: • from the left margin, river Rituerto-Araviana, which crosses the Campo of Gomara, the Torete-Escalote, the Retortillo-Talegones, the Tiermes-Caracena and finally river Pedro, and • from its right margin, the short rivers Mazo, Izana and Fuentepinilla, and in the location of La Rasa the most relevant influent of the province, the system of river Ucero (with its tributaries Sequillo, Abión and Lobos) just in the west border of the reference environment of the power plant. The Ebro basin is located in the reference environment, as can be noted in the above figure, in two different areas: 84 Biomass/Lignites Fuel Cycle • In the Northeast by the heads of the rivers Cidacos, Mayor or Linares, Alhama, Fuentestrún and Queiles. The last two are partially artificial, so river Fuentestrún is the result of Añavieja Lake dewatering and river Queiles, remarkably in its channel between Olvega and Agreda, is a part of works which attempt to improve the water utilisation in an area with water needs for a long time ago. • River Jalón basin, in the Southeast of the reference area, has in its fountain head two significant influents, the rivers Nágima and Henar. The management of aquifers in the province of Soria is not very relevant, but they are sizeable. There are three different systems: Southeast Tertiary, Mesozoic Karstic and West Jurassic of Soria (eminently around Moncayo). Commonly, water quality is good, but there is certain pollution by nitrates in the Southeast Tertiary (more problematic in Campo de Gómara) (Junta de Castilla y León, 1988). 5.1.2.4 Climatology Climate in this region may be defined as continental, with hard winters and warm summers. Mean temperatures range from 2.3ºC in January to 19.6ºC in July. Temperatures over 20ºC only appear in areas below 900 m height, which is a small part of the local area. There is a clear relationship between altitude and temperature, with the latter decreasing 1ºC per each 100 m height increment. Rainfall is moderate, around 550 mm per year, being quite regular along the year. The highest rainfall occur in the north, in the mountain ranges. Wind blows predominantly from the west and north. In the following table, the average meteorological data for the Soria observatory (20 km away from the power plant), for 40 years, are shown. Table 5.Error! Unknown switch argument. Meteorological data. Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Year Rainfall (mm.) 48.5 47.4 46.9 49.4 57.7 52.7 29.5 28.7 44.4 43.9 53.8 51.7 554.6 Mean temperatures (ºC) 2.3 3.5 6.6 8.9 11.9 16.5 19.6 19.5 16.4 11.0 6.2 3.1 10.5 85 ExternE National Implementation. Spain 5.1.2.5 Land use General distribution The agricultural character of the area studied can be concluded from the data contained in the following table. As this table shows, more than 80% of total surface is covered by crops and forests. Table 5.Error! Unknown switch argument. General distribution of lands in the reference environment (1993). Type of surface Herbaceous crops Fallow lands Tree crops TOTAL CROPS Grasslands Pastures TOTAL GRASSLANDS AND PASTURES Timber forest Open forest Shrub forest TOTAL FOREST Uncultivated Esparto field Improductive Non-agricultural Rivers and lakes TOTAL OTHER SURFACES TOTAL MUNICIPAL SURFACE (Ha.) 247,876 86,539 3,698 338,113 16,601 107,585 124,186 158,662 50,459 88,863 297,984 145,744 187 19,500 25,405 8,228 199,064 959,347 (%) 25.8 9.0 0.4 35.2 1.7 11.2 12.9 16.5 5.3 9.3 31.1 15.2 0.0 2.0 2.6 0.9 20.7 100.0 The contribution of forest surface in this area (31% of total surface) is higher than in CastillaLeón and in the rest of Spain. Crops Error! Unknown switch argument. displays the list of the most important crops in the reference area of study, their surface, production and value of production. Finally, the last two columns show the comparison between surface and value of each crop. 86 Biomass/Lignites Fuel Cycle Table 5.Error! Unknown switch argument. Distribution of crop surfaces in the reference area (1993). CROP Barley Wheat Sunflower Alfalfa Potato Clover Asparagus Sugar beet Other crops Total Surface (ha) 118,989 75,143 38,199 1,493 650 2,413 312 718 13,589 251,506 Production Price (kg) (ECU/kg) 240,259,608 0.14 153,971,500 0.17 40,591,950 0.38 55,700,000 0.09 16,322,786 0.17 29,956,356 0.09 1,374,940 1.29 36,381,764 0.04 46,367,366 620,926,270 Value % of total (ECU) surface 33,068,459 47.3 25,829,886 29.9 15,380,659 15.2 5,249,303 0.6 2,724,421 0.3 2,723,305 1.0 1,772,839 0.1 1,591,978 0.3 9,477,129 5.4 97,817,979 100 % of total value 33.8 26.4 15.7 5.4 2.8 2.8 1.8 1.6 9.7 100 As can be observed, the agriculture production in this area is mainly focused on cereals (barley and wheat provide more than 75% of crop surface and more than 60% of total value of crop production). If barley, wheat and sunflower are jointly contemplated, their area is over 92% and their value is over 75% of total crop production. Forests The total forest acreage in the local area studied is 297,984 ha. This area is divided into those forests usually exploited, and those not usually exploited. This distribution is shown in the following figure. Low forest 6% Not exploited 25% Medium forest 10% Timber forest 59% Figure 5.Error! Unknown switch argument. Forest distribution in the local area 87 ExternE National Implementation. Spain Ecosystems There are six significant natural ecosystems in the area, illustrated briefly in the following paragraphs. 1. Black lagoon: This natural enclave, located in Sierra de Urbión, in the Northwest of the area, is a sample of an old glacier present in this zone. 2. River Lobos Canyon: Vegetation in this natural park is very important, especially by Pinus laricio and Juniperus. Fauna is very interesting too, particularly great raptors. 3. Fuentona flowing: River Abión emerges in this flowing located next to Muriel de la Fuente. It is an interesting natural enclave. 4. Sabinar de Calatañazor: In this natural enclave, near river Duero, forest of Juniperus is abundant. This type of tree is usually used for pasture. 5. Somolinos lagoon: This natural enclave is a small lagoon, originated from a natural CaCO3 barrage. 6. Gorges of Mesa: This depth canyon is formed by the river Mesa. The bottom of this natural enclave is occupied by orchards. 5.1.2.6 Population The total population of the reference area is 98,717 inhabitants, most of them living in small municipalities (smaller than 1000 inhabitants). The municipalities comprised within the area studied number 181, belonging 2 to La Rioja, 3 to Burgos, 14 to Zaragoza, 16 to Guadalajara, and 156 to Burgos. The main population centres are Soria, with 33,317 inhabitants, Almazán, with 6,012 inhabitants, and Burgo de Osma, with 5,011 inhabitants. Distribution of population according to age is shown in Error! Unknown switch argument.. It displays a great presence of elderly in the reference environment and less importance of population under 15 years. Table 5.Error! Unknown switch argument. Population according to age in the area (1991). Age group Population (%) <5 4,147 4 5 - 14 10,716 11 15 - 64 62,039 63 > 65 21,815 22 Total 98,717 100 88 Biomass/Lignites Fuel Cycle The population density in the area studied is 9.8 inhab/km2, but with important differences between areas. So, in most of the areas, population density is always below 10 inhab/km 2, while around the municipality of Soria is located the highest populated area, with a density of 337 inhab/km2. Other important areas are located around Almazán (62 inhab/km2) and Burgo de Osma (50 inhab/km2). The contrary can be found in other areas like Caracena (0.1 inhab/km2). 5.1.2.7 Transport network As can be observed in the next figure, the road network in the province of Soria is not well developed. From the site selected to install the biomass power plant, the nearest road is N-111 which links Pamplona with Medinaceli through Soria and Almazán. In the reference area this road crosses from north to south until it connects with the trunk road N-II, which links the cities of Madrid and Barcelona. The road N-122 crosses the province from west to Northeast through Burgo de Osma, Soria and Agreda. Other relevant road is N-234 which connects Soria and Burgos through the Northwest of the province. 4656 4646 C-115 4636 Agreda 4626 N-234 4616 N-122 y UTM coordinates N-122 SORIA C-101 4606 N-111 Gómara Burgo de Osma 4596 C-101 Almazán C-116 4586 C-116 4576 C-101 N-111 4566 N-II 4556 492 502 512 522 532 542 552 562 572 582 592 x UTM coordinates Figure 5.Error! Unknown switch argument. Road network in the province and in the reference area. 89 ExternE National Implementation. Spain 5.2 Overview of burdens As for other fuel cycles based on combustion, the major burdens of the biomass/lignites fuel cycle arise from the power generation stage, from the atmospheric emissions generated in it. Lignite extraction also produces significant burdens such as atmospheric emissions and occupational accidents. No burdens have been taken into account from the forest residues collection, since it has been considered that this activity would have taken place even if this fuel cycle were not implemented. Due to the relatively low density of the fuels used, the amount of km to be traveled (1,090,000 km/yr) by road is also an important burden of this fuel cycle. 5.2.1 Atmospheric emissions The main producers of atmospheric emissions are the mining and power generation activities, although the first one is only relevant for particulate matter. The air pollutants considered have been PM10, NOx, SO2, and CO2. For some stages, some information on CH4, CO, or VOCs as available, and so it has been taken into account. Table 5.Error! Unknown switch argument. Atmospheric emissions of the biomass/lignites fuel cycle (g/MWh) 2. Lignite extraction 3. Fuel transport 4. Limestone extraction and transport 5. Power generation TOTAL nd : not determined PM10 315 3.1 211 SO2 2.3 2.6 1.7 NOx 2.0 36 16 CO2 1067 1947 873 CO 347 nd 231 VOC 2.4 9.3 2.3 230 759 800 807 400 472 794,147 798,034 nd 578 nd 14 As may be seen, the bulk of atmospheric emissions correspond to the power generation stage, except for particulate emissions, which are produced mainly at the extraction stage, because of the large amounts of fugitive dust released. 5.2.2 Liquid effluents As was already mentioned for the coal fuel cycle, the mining of lignites requires draining large amounts of water, which has to be treated before it is released. In addition, sometimes lignites are washed to reduce their sulphur content, creating alkaline waters. However, for the case studied, no data were available. The same goes for the water requirements of the power plant, due mainly to the cooling system needs. 90 Biomass/Lignites Fuel Cycle 5.2.3 Solid wastes Solid wastes are produced mainly during the lignite extraction and power generation stages. The major one is gypsum, produced when treating the drainage water from the mine, and when washing the lignites, and also in the fluidized bed of the boiler. However, no data are available for determining the amount of gypsum produced. The only data for solid wastes refer to ash production, of which 19,850 t are produced annually. 5.2.4 Occupational accidents Occupational accidents are a significant burden for the mining stage. However, it has to be noted that the accident rate used here is the one for the whole mining sector in Spain, which is composed mainly of underground mines. For open-cast mines like the one being studied, accident rates should be lower. Table 5.Error! Unknown switch argument. Occupational accidents per TWh 2. Lignite extraction 4. Limestone extraction and transport 5. Power generation nd : not determined Fatal accidents 1.7e-1 5.3e-2 Major injuries 2.7e-1 2.4e-1 Minor injuries 85.6 1.2e-1 5.6e-2 0.35 14.4 5.3 Selection of priority impacts For the assessment of this fuel cycle, both the impacts of the biomass and lignites fuel cycle will have to be taken into account. Error! Unknown switch argument. shows the impacts considered in this fuel cycle. Table 5.Error! Unknown switch argument. Impacts of the biomass/lignite fuel cycle. Impacts Mining/ Transport Generation Waste disposal Construction Collection Global warming x x x x x Public health x x x x Occupational health x x x x Crops x x x Forests x x x Ecosystems x x x x Materials x x x Noise x x x x Road traffic x x Fire risk x Resettlement x 91 ExternE National Implementation. Spain Impacts Visual impact Mining/ Collection x Transport Generation Waste disposal Construction x x x The expected major impact is that caused by the atmospheric emissions of the generation stage on crops, forests and ecosystems, materials and global warming. Regarding the latter, the previous CO2 fixation by biomass will be considered. Another important impact of the cycle is that caused by the washing of lignites on water quality, although this one is quite difficult to assess. Biomass transport is also expected to cause road damages, which will be also estimated. Other impacts, such as noise, or visual impact, due to their local nature, are not expected to be significant. So, the priority impacts that will be assessed are: • Public health, • Occupational health, • Crops, • Forests, • Ecosystems, • Materials, • Road damages, and • Global warming. 5.4 Quantification of impacts and damages 5.4.1 Lignite extraction Lignite extraction produces several environmental and health impacts. The major ones are the effects on miners health, and also water and soil pollution from the mining activities. However, most of these impacts are very difficult to quantify, due to the lack of appropriate data. In the case of water and soil pollution, this is further complicated by the little knowledge existing of water and soil impact pathways. The impacts on miners health are expected to be not so great, since the incidence of occupational diseases such as cancer or pneucomoniosis is not so high in open-cast mines such as those considered for this fuel cycle. Therefore, only occupational accidents have been taken into account. 92 Biomass/Lignites Fuel Cycle Atmospheric pollution from mining activities has been estimated, in order to assess its impacts. These impacts are expected to be negligible, except for GHG emissions, since the emissions of this stage make up for a very small percentage of the total emissions of the fuel cycle. This is not the case for TSP emissions, which are around half of the total emissions. However, the diameter of most of the particulates contained in this measure is larger than 10µm, so the real PM10 emissions will be much smaller. Moreover, these particulates are emitted from a very low height, thus being dispersed in a reduced area, and affecting mostly mine workers. The visual impact of open-cast mines, and its alteration of the environment, although relevant at a local scale, are not expected to be significant when compared to the regional effects of the fuel cycle. Table 5.Error! Unknown switch argument. Impacts and damages of lignite extraction Impact Occupational accidents Deaths Major injuries Minor injuries Global warming Burden Impacts Damages Unit per TWh mECU/kWh ECU/t poll. 1.7e-1 2.7e-1 85.6 CO2 CH4 0.4 3.3e-2 1.6e-1 4e-3 - 1.5e-1 2.8e-2 - 1.0 na na na 3.8 - 139 81 - 2975 σg A A A C C na: not applicable 5.4.2 Fuel transport Due to the relatively low energy density of the fuels used for this fuel cycle, the transport stage will be more significant, regarding its damages, than for other fuel cycles assessed before. The main impact within this stage is the damages caused to roads. However, it has to be reminded that this damage may be already internalized, in some cases, through road taxes. The impact of road accidents is also important, although smaller. As for the atmospheric emissions of the vehicles, its impact has been considered negligible, due to its very small contribution to the total fuel cycle emissions. Only greenhouse gas emissions have been taken into account, due to their global nature. Table 5.Error! Unknown switch argument. Impacts and damages of fuel transport Impact Road accidents Deaths Major injuries Minor injuries Road damages Global warming na: not applicable Burden Impacts Damages Unit per TWh mECU/kWh ECU/t poll. 6.0e-2 1.6e-1 3.0e-1 km traveled CO2 repair costs σg 0.16 2.0e-2 5.7e-4 0.3 na na na na A A A A 7e-3 - 2.7e-1 3.8 - 139 C 93 ExternE National Implementation. Spain 5.4.3 Limestone extraction and transport The major impact of this stage is that produced by road accidents. As has been done for other stages, the impact of atmospheric emissions is considered negligible because of its small share of total emissions. The case of TSP emissions is similar to the lignite extraction stage, and so it is not considered either. The same goes for local impacts, such as visual impact or environment alterations, of the physical presence of the quarry. Table 5.Error! Unknown switch argument. Impacts and damages of limestone extraction and transport Impact Occupational accidents Deaths Major injuries Minor injuries Road accidents Deaths Major injuries Minor injuries Road damages Global warming Burden km traveled CO2 CH4 Impacts Unit per TWh repair costs mECU/kWh Damages ECU/t poll. σg 5.3e-2 2.4e-1 1.2e-1 0.14 3.0e-2 2.3e-4 na na na A A A 4.9e-3 1.3e-2 5.2e-2 1.3e-2 1.6e-3 9.9e-5 4.1e-2 na na na na A A A A 3e-3 - 1.2e-1 1.9e-2 – 6.9e-1 3.8 - 139 81 - 2975 C C na: not applicable 5.4.4 Power generation The largest share of the damages of power generation stage belongs to health effects caused by the atmospheric emissions of the power plant, and to the global warming produced by GHG emissions. Second in importance are occupational accidents (which may be internalized to a certain extent), and damages on materials. Effects on crops and forests are much smaller, although it has to be reminded that, for crops, only some of them, which are not the most valuable crops in Spain, are taken into account. The introduction of horticultural or tree crops would certainly rise the damages on crops. Impacts of water pollution have not been assessed, although they might be significant. 94 Biomass/Lignites Fuel Cycle Table 5.Error! Unknown switch argument. Impacts and damages of power generation Impact Human health Chronic YOLL Acute YOLL Morbidity Crops Ecosystems Materials Occupational accidents Deaths Major injuries Minor injuries Road damages Global warming Burden TSP Nitrates Sulfates SO2 Ozone Nitrates Ozone SO2 CO Sulfates TSP SO2 Ozone N dep. Impacts Unit per TWh years years years years 2.02e+1 4.04e+1 6.26e+1 7.20e-1 cases 2.49e+3 cases cases cases cases dt yield loss 2.75e-1 6.30e+1 3.86e+3 1.25e+3 4.82e+5 kg fertilizer added Ac. dep. kg lime added N dep. km2 exceed. area SO2 km2 exceed. area NOx km2 exceed. area m2 maint. SO2 area km traveled CO2 repair costs mECU/kWh Damages ECU/t poll. σg -2.97e+4 1.70 3.40 5.28 1.12e-1 1.65e-1 4.37e-1 2.93e-1 2.16e-3 4.96e-1 6.57e-1 2.19e-1 2.19e-2 1.40e-1 -5.10e-4 7510 8570 6590 139 412 1100 732 2.70 410 822 964 27.3 350 na B B? B B B A-B? B A-B B A-B A-B A B A 5.10e+5 8.75e-3 na A 0 na 0 0 na 0 0 na 0 4.46e+3 7.52e-2 94 B 5.6e-2 0.35 14.4 0.15 4.3e-2 2.8e-2 6.1e-3 na na na na A A A A 3.0 - 111 3.8 - 139 C 95 ExternE National Implementation. Spain na: not applicable 5.5 Summary and interpretation of results Table 5.Error! Unknown switch argument. Damages of the biomass/lignites fuel cycle POWER GENERATION Public health Mortality*- YOLL (VSL) of which TSP SO2 NOx NOx (via ozone) Morbidity of which TSP, SO2, NOx, CO NOx (via ozone) Accidents Occupational health Major accidents Crops of which SO2 NOx (via ozone) Ecosystems Materials Noise Visual impacts Global warming low mid 3% mid 1% upper 96 mECU/kWh σg 10.7 (41.4) 1.7 (6.3) 5.4 (22.4) 3.4 (12.5) 0.17 1.6 1.4 0.27 nq 0.17 nq 0.15 1.4e-2 0.14 ng 7.5e-2 nq nq B A B A A B B B C 3.0 14.3 36.5 111.4 Biomass/Lignites Fuel Cycle OTHER FUEL CYCLE STAGES Public health Occupational health Ecological effects Road damages Global warming low mid 3% mid 1% upper 0.20 0.76 nq 0.34 A A B A C 6.2e-2 0.29 0.75 2.23 *Yoll= mortality impacts based on ‘years of life lost’ approach, VSL= impacts evaluated based on ‘value of statistical life’ approach. ng: negligible; nq: not quantified; iq: only impact quantified; - : not relevant Table 5.Error! Unknown switch argument. Sub-total damages of the biomass/lignites fuel cycle YOLL (VSL) low mid 3% mid 1% upper mECU/kWh 17.2 (47.9) 28.7 (59.4) 51.6 (82.3) 127.2 (157.9) Table 5.Error! Unknown switch argument. Damages by pollutant SO2 *- YOLL (VSL) NOx *- YOLL (VSL) PM10 *- YOLL (VSL) NOx (via ozone) CO2 ECU / t of pollutant 7113 (28363) 9600 (32350) 8348 (28174) 1500 3.8 - 139 *Yoll= mortality impacts based on ‘years of life lost’ approach, VSL= impacts evaluated based on ‘value of statistical life’ approach. 97 ExternE National Implementation. Spain As may be seen, damages per t of pollutant emitted are higher for this site than for the one chosen for the coal fuel cycle. However, damages per kWh are lower. This is explained by the lower emission factors produced by both the technology and the fuel mix chosen. In spite of the very high sulphur content of the lignites used, the participation of biomass reduces significantly the damages caused by SO2 emissions. The CO2-neutral character of biomass also contributes to lower net CO2 emissions. Both reductions produced damages which are lower than, for example, those of the coal fuel cycle assessed previously, which used good-quality coal, and modern technologies. Results show, then, the advantages of co-firing biomass with lignites. It seems then that biomass could have a significant role in energy generation if electricity generation from lignites, and at the same time, pollution reduction is attempted. This would only be true, however, if biomass fuels are exploited on a sustainable way, and if they are transported from short distances, so that the biomass fuel cycle would retain its carbon-neutral character, and pollutant emissions of the fuel cycle are kept small. 98 6. WIND FUEL CYCLE 6.1 Definition of the wind fuel cycle, technology and site 6.1.1 Technology description The fuel cycle is characterized by all stages of processing energy, from fuel extraction, to distribution to consumers. However, the wind fuel cycle appears different, as it has only two stages, generation and distribution. This requires a different treatment compared to other fuel cycles. In those, no life cycle analysis is carried out, as the main impacts result from the operational stage, and thus, not considering the rest of the cycle does not remarkably affect results. However, for wind energy, impacts are distributed along the entire life cycle, and not accounting for stages other than operation would lead to a large underestimation of impacts. For example, atmospheric emissions appear not in the operational stage, but in the construction of the turbines, and are likely to be of the same magnitude as impacts more characteristic of the wind fuel cycle, such as noise and visual amenity. Therefore, the stages to be considered are the following: Resource extraction Turbine manufacturing Turbine operation Decommissioning Product disposal Figure 6.Error! Unknown switch argument. Stages of the wind fuel cycle 99 ExternE National Implementation. Spain These stages will be condensed into two: turbine construction and turbine operation. The rest are assumed to produce negligible impacts when compared to these. The wind farm that will be assessed is a 3 MW wind farm located in Camariñas, in the Northwestern corner of Spain. The wind farm has 20 MADE AE/20 wind turbines in operation, plus other three turbines for experimentation purposes. 6.1.1.1 Turbine construction As said before, the wind turbines operating at the Cabo Vilano wind farm are MADE AE/20, developed and manufactured by the Spanish company MADE. These are three-bladed, 150 kW wind turbines, with stall control, asynchronous generator, and steel, cylindrical towers. Its main characteristics are shown in the following table. Table 6.Error! Unknown switch argument. Characteristics of MADE AE/20 wind turbines Rated power 150 kW Rotor diameter 20 m Rotor speed 46 rpm Rated wind speed 14 m/s Tower height 21/28 m Weight 16.3 t According to the life cycle analysis approach, it is required to know the energy and material requirements of this stage. for this, material weights have been estimated from existing studies (Schmid et al, 1990). The energy required to manufacture these materials, and the CO2 emissions lied to it, have been estimated based on Spanish industrial energy consumption, transforming thermal energy to electricity (except for glass fibre, which data are taken from the original EC report (EC, 1995)). All these data are summarized in the following diagram, for the whole wind farm. 100 Wind Fuel Cycle 1,587 MWh 20 AE/20 wind turbines 26.6 t glass fibre 3.7 t copper 321 t steel 352 t concrete TURBINE CONSTRUCTION 542 t CO2 Occupational accidents Figure 6.Error! Unknown switch argument. Turbine construction 6.1.1.2 Turbine operation The wind farm generated in the last year some 5,270 MWh, with a capacity factor of 0.3. The noise level produced by the wind turbines has been estimated to be around 105 dB, based on measurements taken from similar turbines. No operation accidents have been reported for this stage in the wind farm. However, road accidents may be expected due to the increment in road traffic by the wind farm workers. The operating and maintenance staff is 2, with a round trip journey of 138 km for one of them, and 7 km for the other, for 240 days a year. In addition, 2 technicians come once a year from 526 km away, for maintenance. 6.1.2 Site description The wind farm selected for this study was installed in Cabo Vilano in 1992. Cabo Vilano is within the municipality of Camariñas, province of La Coruña, at the Northwestern corner of Spain. The site is about 1 km away from Cabo Vilano lighthouse, in a flat plateau completely cleared of vegetation, some 50 to 100 m above sea level, and at 250 m distance from the seashore. 101 ExternE National Implementation. Spain It is a very sparsely populated area, with 4,123 people living in the two municipalities from where the wind farm may be seen, Camariñas (3 km away from the wind farm) and Muxía (at 5 km distance across the ría de Camariñas). A view of the wind farm is shown in the following figure. Figure 6.Error! Unknown switch argument. Cabo Vilano wind farm The area shows very high wind speeds (around 8 m/s yearly average), mostly from the sea (NE and SSW). This prevents the existence of trees. However, the area is considered to have relevant ecological characteristics, and is one important tourist attraction in Galicia. In spite of the very high wind potential of the area (around 600 MW), few wind farms have been installed, and so the pressure on the ecosystem and on the landscape is not considered yet to be significant. 6.2 Overview of burdens First of all, it has to be noted that wind energy should be considered a low-impact technology, and so it is quite difficult to point at any of its burdens as a significant one. 102 Wind Fuel Cycle Noise is always identified as a major burden of wind energy, although in this case, it is not expected to be significant, as the wind farm is far from population centres. This is also the reason why the physical presence of the wind farm is not an important burden for this case. This physical presence should not be a burden neither for bird population, which seem to have got used to the wind farm. The only major burden which might be identified is the amount of km traveled by the O&M staff, which is quite high, and might produce road accidents to a certain extent. 6.3 Selection of priority impacts The impacts expected to be produced by the wind fuel cycle are presented in the following table. Table 6.Error! Unknown switch argument. Impacts of the wind fuel cycle Impacts Turbine Power manufacturing generation Global warming x Public health x Occupational health x Crops x Forests x Ecosystems x x Materials x Noise x Impact on birds x Electromagnetic x interferences Visual impact x Most of these impacts will be assessed, except for impacts on birds, or electromagnetic interferences, which are expected to be not significant. Impacts on birds have been found to be negligible, according to the Environmental Impact Analysis carried out for the wind farm (Lago et al, 1993). The resident bird species seem to have got used to the farm, and there is no migratory route crossing it. As for electromagnetic interferences, the area affected is confined to a very small region (less than 1 km2) around the wind turbines. Its effect is considered negligible. 103 ExternE National Implementation. Spain 6.4 Quantification of impacts and damages 6.4.1 Turbine construction The major impacts of this stage are those caused by the atmospheric emission of pollutants. Since the major impact of these pollutants is produced on human health, only these effects have been considered. Monetary estimates of the damages have been obtained from the aggregation exercise carried out for the Spanish electricity sector (see section 8). The occupational accidents for this stage have been estimated based on the rates provided by the EC report (European Commission, 1995f), and on Spanish accident rates for construction. These accidents comprise both those expected during manufacturing of the wind turbines and the construction of the wind farm. Impacts have been annualized assuming a lifetime of 20 years for the wind farm. Table 6.Error! Unknown switch argument. Impacts and damages of turbine construction Impact Occupational accidents Deaths Major injuries Minor injuries Energy consumption Global warming na: not applicable Burden energy use CO2 Impacts Damages Unit per TWh mECU/kWh ECU/t poll. MWh 1.1e-2 9.3e-1 5.8 15,057 σg 2.9e-2 1.2e-1 1.1e-2 5.7e-1 na na na na A A A B 2e-2 - 7.2e-1 3.8 - 139 C 6.4.2 Turbine operation Visual impact is usually cited as the largest impact of wind farms. In this case, however, it is doubtful whether this impact really exists, as the wind farm is highly considered in the area, having become a sort of tourist attraction. Therefore, its visual impact, if it exists, has been considered to be negligible. As for noise impacts, they are also quite small, because of the low population density of the area surrounding the wind farm. Occupational accidents are also expected to be negligible. However, some damages have been estimated due to road accidents created by the transport of the staff. 104 Wind Fuel Cycle Table 6.Error! Unknown switch argument. Impacts and damages of turbine operation Impact Road accidents Deaths Major injuries Minor injuries Noise Visual amenity na: not applicable Burden Impacts Damages Unit per TWh mECU/kWh ECU/t poll. 3.2e-1 8.5e-1 3.9 8.3e-1 1.1e-1 7.4e-3 8e-3 <0.001 na na na na na σg A A A B B 105 ExternE National Implementation. Spain 6.5 Summary and interpretation of results Table 6.Error! Unknown switch argument. Damages of the wind fuel cycle POWER GENERATION Public health Mortality*- YOLL (VSL) of which TSP SO2 NOx NOx (via ozone) Morbidity of which TSP, SO2, NOx, CO NOx (via ozone) Accidents Occupational health Major accidents Crops of which SO2 NOx (via ozone) Ecosystems Materials Noise Visual impacts Global warming low mid 3% mid 1% upper OTHER FUEL CYCLE STAGES Public health Occupational health Ecological effects Road damages Global warming low mid 3% mid 1% upper mECU/kWh σg ng B ng ng 0.95 nq ng ng ng 8e-3 ng A B A A B B B C ng ng ng ng nq 0.16 ng nq A A B A C 2.0e-2 9.3e-2 2.4e-1 7.2e-1 *Yoll= mortality impacts based on ‘years of life lost’ approach, VSL= impacts evaluated based on ‘value of statistical life’ approach. ng: negligible; nq: not quantified; iq: only impact quantified; - : not relevant 106 Wind Fuel Cycle Table 6.Error! Unknown switch argument. Sub-total damages of the wind fuel cycle YOLL (VSL) low mid 3% mid 1% upper mECU/kWh 1.7 (1.7) 1.8 (1.8) 1.9 (1.9) 2.4 (2.4) Damages of the wind fuel cycle are really small, as might be expected. Indeed, the largest damages correspond to occupational accidents, which should be internalized to a certain extent. Those impacts most characteristic of this fuel cycle, such as noise or visual amenity, are quite small in this case, due to the good siting of this wind farm, far from population centres and from ecologically-sensitive areas. These damages could be greater for wind farms installed nearer to population centres, or on migratory routes, such as those in Tarifa. Therefore, great care should be taken for the future wind energy deployment in Spain. Indeed, given the local nature of the impacts of the wind fuel cycle, it may be shown that most of the impacts may be corrected from the planning stage. 107 7. WASTE INCINERATION 7.1 Definition of the waste incineration cycle, technology and site 7.1.1 Technology description The waste incineration process to be analyzed will be based on a real MSW plant located in Mataró, near Barcelona. The plant has an integral treatment of residues, that is, there is a recycling and composting stage, and the refuse is then burnt for electricity production. It has an installed power of 11.6 MW, producing some 65,000 MWh of electricity per year. The amount of residues treated by the plant is 170,000 t, of which 86% are incinerated. The stages of the treatment process are shown in the following diagram. PLANT CONSTRUCTION Recycling Cardboard Glass Plastic Non-ferrous metals Magnetic scrap PVC 14% RESIDUES Composting MSW transport 86% Compost ELECTRICITY Incineration Transport PLANT DISMANTLING Ash Figure 7.Error! Unknown switch argument. Stages of the waste incineration process Each of these stages is characterized in the following sections. 109 ExternE National Implementation. Spain 7.1.1.1 MSW transport 170,000 t of residues are transported yearly to the power plant from the Maresme region. Every day, about 115 lorries arrive to the plant, involving the work of some 115 drivers. The average distance travelled is 40 km per day and truck, what makes a total annual distance of 1,380,000 km. As for the composition of the MSW, it is shown in the following table. Table 7.Error! Unknown switch argument. Typical composition of MSW of the Maresme region. Type of residue % in weight Organic matter 45 Paper and cardboard 20 Glass, wood and metals 10 Plastic and fiber 25 An input-output diagram of this stage is shown in the following figure. 115 workers 170,000 t MSW 1,380,000 km MSW TRANSPORT Road damages Road accidents 170,000 t MSW Air emissions 0.69 t HC 8.58 t CO 1.46 t NOx 0.12 t TSP 946 t CO2 Figure 7.Error! Unknown switch argument. MSW Transport stage 7.1.1.2 Waste treatment The treatment process starts with the lorries’ discharge in the reception section of the plant. The waste passes to the selection conveyor belts where are manually separated the voluminous 110 Waste incineration cycle residues and the recyclable materials (glass, paper and cardboard). The rest of the waste is recirculated through a rotative screen where the organic matter is separated from the rest of the waste. This organic matter is sent to the fermentation silos to make compost. The voluminous residues are grinded and transported to the energy recovery pit to be incinerated with the rest of residues. The composting process is carried out inside channels of 50-70 m limited by 2 m walls topped with rails. The organic residues are daily placed at the beginning of the channels. A tumbling machine, supported on the top rails, stirs, grinds, homogenizes and moves the residues towards the end of the channels. At the same time, the tumbled waste is aerated and oxygenated. The organic matter, with optimal temperature and humidity conditions, suffers a microbial aerobic decomposition that rises the waste temperature to 60-70ºC. The controlled conditions of the process favours the obtention of compost of adequate characteristics. From the inorganic fraction are separated manually other materials, as various types of plastics and magnetic scrap. The resulting refuse from the previous treatments, together with the voluminous residues previously grinded, are conveyed to the energy recovery pit. It has a volume of 6,000 m3, which can contain 3,000 tons of residues. 43% of the residues received in the plant go directly into the pit. Two bridge cranes take the residues from the pit to the feeding hoppers of the two combustors. Once the residues are in the hopper, they fall by gravity into the boiler. The combustion process takes place on travelling grates with steps that make the residues move forward and mix them to achieve a complete combustion. The combustor has been designed in such a way that the combustion gases remain at least two seconds over 840ºC, in order to control the dioxins and furans emission that may have been formed in the combustion process. There are also emergency gas burners that work if the combustion temperature falls below 850ºC. The combustion gases pass through a heat recovery steam generator (HRSG) with a steam production capacity of 25.4 tons/hour of superheated steam at 61 bar and 380ºC. That steam powers a steam turbine of 11.6 MWe. The alternator is connected to the electricity grid. With the electricity generated in the plant, around 65,000 MWh, one third of the population of the Mataró town could be supplied. The steam from the turbine is condensed in an air cooled condenser, closing the steam cycle. The flue gases from the HRSG pass through a limestone semi-humid scrubber. Limestone slurry is sprayed over the flue gas stream and reacts mainly with the chloride and sulphur contained in the gases. The new compounds formed precipitate and are separated in a cyclone. The limestone consumption is around 12 kg per ton of MSW incinerated. At the same time, as the gas temperature is reduced, the heavy metals evaporated in the incineration process at 850- 111 ExternE National Implementation. Spain 1,000ºC, precipitate. The global removal efficiency for heavy metals particulates is around 99%, except that for mercury, that is about 95%. The flying ashes and most of the particulates that have not been cleaned out in the scrubbing process are retained in the electrostatic precipitators and stored in silos. The total volume of this collected ashes is around 0.5% of the total MSW incinerated, and 3% in weight. Fly ash is disposed in a landfill for inert materials, while bottom ash is transferred to a treatment plant where it is prepared for use for road construction. The stack height is 45 m, with a 2 m diameter. Regarding to liquid effluents, the policy of the plant has been to minimize the water consumption and disposal. That is the reason of having an air cooling system for the steam cycle and using the process water very efficiently. The water needs of the plant are supplied by the public water system, and it is around 0.5 m3/h. The water is used for general services of the plant buildings and in different processes: steam cycle make up, gas neutralization and slag cooling. The purges from the steam cycle are used to cover the needs of the other two processes. So there are no liquid effluents from the plant apart from those from general services, that are disposed to the public sewage system. The operation of the plant requires 52 people. The construction period lasted for two years, during which the average number of workers involved was 90. An estimation has been made of the construction materials, and their transport needs, based on previous ExternE reports. The waste treatment process is shown in the following figure. 112 Waste incineration cycle 90 workers (for two years) 9,000 t steel 25,000 t concrete 500 t cladding and roofing PLANT CONSTRUCTION Occupational accidents Road damages Air emissions 26 t SO2 2.6 t NOx 43 kg TSP Air emissions 982 t CO2 52 workers 2,800 m3 water 1,754 t limestone Compost PLANT OPERATION 170,000 t MSW 65,000 MWh 55,250 t CO2 6,163 kg TSP 20,075 kg SO2 84,137 kg NOx 21,118 kg CO 3,614 kg VOC 2,709 kg HCl 227 kg HF 370 kg Pb+Cr+Cu+Mn+Ni+As 7 kg Cd+Hg 1 g PCDD/F Occupational accidents 33,000 t bottom ash 6,600 t fly ash Recycled products Road damages Occupational accidents 5 workers PLANT DISMANTLING 9,000 t steel 25,000 t concrete 500 t cladding and roofing Air emissions 36 kg SO2 587 kg NOx 43 kg TSP 32 t CO2 Figure 7.Error! Unknown switch argument. Waste treatment process 7.1.1.3 Ash transport Fly ash is disposed daily in an special landfill for inert materials. For its transport, one truck per day is required. 110 t of bottom ash are produced daily, and transported by 4-5 trucks to a treatment plant nearby, where they are prepared to be used as base materials for road construction. 113 ExternE National Implementation. Spain 5 workers 60,000 km 33,000 t bottom ash ASH TRANSPORT 6,600 t fly ash Road damages Road accidents Air emissions 0.03 t HC 0.37 t CO 0.06 t NOx 0.01 t TSP 41.12 t CO2 Figure 7.Error! Unknown switch argument. Ash transport 7.1.2 Site description 7.1.2.1 Geographical location The site of the municipal solid waste power plant is the municipality of Mataró, in the province of Barcelona, in Northeastern Spain. The site is 4 km away from the nearest village, Mataró, 26 km from Barcelona and 647 km northeast from Madrid, in a populated area, near the Mediterranean coasts and mostly devoted to industry. 114 Waste incineration cycle CATALUÑA Mataró Barcelona Madrid Figure 7.Error! Unknown switch argument. Situation of the power plant within Barcelona and Spain. The geographical data of the site are the following: Municipality: Mataró Province: Barcelona Region: Cataluña Latitude: 41º 31’20 N Longitude: 2º 25’28 W Altitude: 15 m UTM coordinates: x = 451,927 (time zone 31) y = 4,597,393 In this study, the area within 50 km distance of the power plant site will be analyzed in order to determine the local impacts that the plant may produce. The total area covered amounts to 10,000 km2. Error! Unknown switch argument. shows this area. The power plant site is located in the center of the square. 115 ExternE National Implementation. Spain Girona LLEIDA Vic GIRONA BARCELONA Manresa Granollers Terrassa Igualada Mataró Power plant Sabadell Cerdanyola Badalona MAR MEDITERRÁNEO Barcelona Villafranca del Penedés l’Hospitalet de Llobregat TARRAGONA El Vendrell Sant Feliu Vilanova i La Geltrú Figure 7.Error! Unknown switch argument. Area of study at local level. 7.1.2.2 Topography Maresme district relief has two well defined units: the coastline mountain-chain and the flatlands near the coast. The Sierra de Marina belong to the central part of the Catalonian coastline mountain-chain. The Montnegre-Corredor’s massif is one of the most important in this mountain-chain, with the highest mountains in the Maresme district. Near this massif is located the municipal solid waste power plant. The coastal flatlands are very narrow, but in this area are located the main villages and crops. They have an aqueous origin and they are greater where minor-watercourses corrade the lands. The coastline is quite sandy, formed by deposit materials due to erosion. There are no relevant rocky coasts, only in Arenys de Mar, Canet, Sant Pol and Calella beachs. However, groins are very usual to protect the coast from unconsolidated materials of flatlands. Error! Unknown switch argument. shows the topography of the reference environment of the power plant. 116 Waste incineration cycle Figure 7.Error! Unknown switch argument. Topography in the reference environment. 7.1.2.3 Hydrology Surface hydrology in the studied area is built by short minor-watercourses from near mountains. Their flows are very irregular and have a high sensitivity to rainfall. Water flows through tranverse thrusts in the Corredor’s massif. An example of this is the “riera de Argentona”. Montnegre’s watercourses have the most irregular flows. Sant Pol minor watercourse collects water from several other minorwatercourses and it has water until the summer in Sant Iscle de Vallalta. 7.1.2.4 Climatology The area around the power plant is located in a district where climatology is defined by geographical situation and relief units. So, climatology of the Maresme district is outlined by a coastline mountain-chain, very close to the sea. This mountain-chain protects from northeast cold winds in winter and condenses the water vapor. Moreover, climatology is softened by the Mediterranean sea. Rainfall is very irregular. Montnegre´s massif has the highest levels of rainfall in the district, due to its height and the nearness to the Montseny’s massif, with heights over 1,700 m. This 117 ExternE National Implementation. Spain fact provides a great rainfall irregularity, with minimum values in summer and maximum values in autumm and spring. Rainfall increases from SW to EN. So, while Mataró has 583 mm/year, Calella rises until 843 mm/year. Maximum level of rainfall occurs in autumn, mainly in October. Temperatures along the year are very constant, due to the smoothing effect of the sea and the location of the coastline mountain-chain. Temperature variations increase in inland areas. Annual average temperature in Mataró is 16.1ºC while in Conreria is 13.8ºC. Maresme district has a characteristic coastal climatology, with annual rainfall between 600 and 800 mm. and quite soft temperatures. However, northern areas are colder and wetter. Error! Unknown switch argument. summarizes in a monthly average basis the wind, temperature and solar irradiation data of the meteorogical station located in the power plant. Table 7.Error! Unknown switch argument. Climatology data in the reference site (1995). January February March April May June July August September October November December Annual Wind Velocity (m/s) 1.53 1.38 1.42 1.25 1.20 1.08 1.15 1.18 1.10 0.81 1.11 1.25 1.21 Wind Direction (degrees) 239.52 224.53 210.68 215.59 207.64 197.06 204.06 218.88 218.35 223.01 232.21 235.63 218.90 Temperature (º c) 10.07 12.38 11.52 13.84 17.28 20.06 24.93 24.45 19.93 19.26 14.45 12.12 16.53 Solar irradiation (w/m2) 79.50 120.83 187.98 216.83 254.59 236.32 271.56 227.29 173.93 128.82 88.87 58.66 169.56 7.1.2.5 Land use General land distribution The Maresme district has mainly Mediterranean natural vegetation. The most common species that can be found are coastal holm oak, cork oak and mountainous holm oak in several points of Montnegre. The coastline flatlands have northern grassland herbages. White and stone pines (Pinus pinaster) are currently the most characteristic forests in flatlands. Cork oak forests are located in highlands, near the Montnegre massif. Alder (Alnus glutinosa) can be found near the watercourses. The underbrush is built by Mediterranean shrubs like heather, furze (Ulex europaeus), pairies, broom and rosemary. 118 Waste incineration cycle The human action has changed the vegetation in flatlands. So, crops are established over all the inferior areas suppressing natural vegetation and beach communities. The only exception is the sea rave. The coast municipalities have the largest part of crop areas in the studied site, especially in the Maresme district. For instance, the percentage of surface dedicated to crops is 53% in Arenys de Mar, 30% in Mataró and 28% in Canet de Mar. On the other hand, forest surface is located in inland and northern municipalities. So, Dosrius, Sant Iscle de Vallalta or Sant Cebrià de Vallalta have more than 80% of their surface dedicated to forest. Industrial location in the Maresme district is around Mataró, with more than 50% of the industrial wage-earners. Other relevant industrial municipalities are Argentona and Canet. Error! Unknown switch argument. summarizes the land distribution in the Maresme district in 1,989. Table 7.Error! Unknown switch argument. General land distribution in the Maresme district. (ha.) (%) 1,850 14.8 70 0.5 Forest 8,444 67.6 Other 2,126 17.0 Crop surfaces Pastures Agriculture The most important crops in the reference area are forage, barley, wheat and green products. 119 ExternE National Implementation. Spain Green products 9% Wheat 12% Oats 4% Other 19% Forage 30% Barley 26% Figure 7.Error! Unknown switch argument. Surface distribution by product. Ecosystems The Montnegre-Corredor Natural Park is located in the studied area. It was created in 1989 with an area of 15,000 ha. and two relevant units: the Corredor and the Montnegre. These units are divided by the Vallgorguina and Arenys minor watercourses. The Santuario del Corredor with 638 m. and the Turó de Ponent with 762 m. are the two highest points. Holm oaks, cork oaks, white and stone pines are predominant in this Natural Park, but there are other oaks, alders (Alnus glutinosa), chestnuts (Castanea sativa), birches and beeches (Fagus silvatica) too. The Montnegre-Corredor Natural Park has a great diversity of animal species like squirrels, goshawks or white snakes and other reptiles, birds, insects and small mamals. This natural park is an bird migration route too. Relevant natural protected spaces in the reference area of the power plant are summarized in Error! Unknown switch argument.. 120 Waste incineration cycle Table 7.Error! Unknown switch argument. Ecosystems in the reference environment. Name 1.Montnegre-Corredor 2.Riera d’Arbúcies-Hostalrich 3.Montseny 4.Montesquiu 5.Sant Llorenç del Munt i l’Obac 6.Muntanya de Montserrat 7.Garraf 8.Embassament del riu Foix 9.Delta del Llobregat 10.Collserola 11.Olérdola Protection figure Surface (ha) 15,010 1989 Partial Natural Reservoir Natural Park 10 km. 1987 30,120 1977 Especial Protection Plan Natural Park 546 1985 9,638 1982 Natural Park 3,630 1987 Especial Protection Plan Especial Protection Plan 10,638 1986 1,700 1993 Partial Natural Reservoir Especial Protection Plan Especial Protection Plan 288 1987 7,992 1987 409 1992 Natural Park Date Latitude Longitude 41º 38’ N 2º 33’ E 41º 46´ N 2º 35’ E 41º 46’ N 2º 23’ E 42º 07’ N 2º 13’ E 41º 39’ N 1º 55’ E 41º 36’ N 1º 48’ E 41º 17’ N 1º 53’ E 41º 15’ N 1º 38’ E 41º 17’ N 2º 04’ E 41º 27’ N 2º 00’ E 41º 18’ N 2º 43’ E Observations Mature forest systems. River banks with trees. Holm and cork oaks, birchs, pines and chestnuts. Oaks, ribera and albar pines. Pastures. Holm oaks and pines. Relevant fauna. Rocky formations. Holm oaks. Karstic area. Holm oaks and pines. Karstic area. Pinus alepensis and dry pastures. Wet area formed by coastline lakes. Holm oaks, oaks and pines. Arqueologic center of great value. 7.1.2.6 Population The total population of the local area studied is 4,471,600 inhabitants, as taken from the national census (National Institute of Statistics). Table 7.Error! Unknown switch argument. shows their distribution according to age. Table 7.Error! Unknown switch argument. Population distribution according to age (1986). Age group % 0-14 24.2 15-29 23.6 30-44 19.8 45-65 20.7 > 65 11.5 For the local area the population density is 447.1 inh/km2, what is very high, higher than the population density for Spain (78 inh/km2). 121 ExternE National Implementation. Spain 7.1.2.7 Transport network The road network in the surrondings of the Mataró MSW power plant is formed by: • the A-19 motorway from Barcelona to Mataró, • the B-30 motorway from Mataró to Granollers, • the Cabrera’s motorway to Malgrat, and • the trunk road N-II from Barcelona to Girona. All the villages in the reference area are linked by secondary roads. The most relevant are: • the C-1415 from Mataró to Granollers, through Argentona and La Roca, • the B-511 from Arenys de Mar to Sant Celoni, • the BV-5101 from Dosrius to Canyamars, • the BV-5031 from Mataró to Sant Vicenç de Montalt, • the BV-5111 from Arenys de Mar to Sant Iscle de Vallalta, and • the BV-5128 from Sant Iscle de Vallalta to Sant Pol del Mar. The railway from Barcelona to Blanes goes over the Maresme district. In Error! Unknown switch argument., the transport network of the area is shown. 122 Waste incineration cycle Girona N-141 A-17 Vic N-II C-253 C-250 San Felíu de Guixois N-141 N-152 A-17 Manresa Blanes Arenys de M ar N-II Granollers B-30 Terrasa Sabadell Igualada N-II A-17 M ataró A-19 Ripollet Martorell Cerdanyola El M asnou M ontgat Badalona A-7 BARCELONA N-340 Sant Feliu l’Hospitalet de Llobregat Figure 7.Error! Unknown switch argument. Transport network in the reference environment. 7.2 Overview of burdens The most important burdens of the waste incineration cycle are the atmospheric emissions generated by the power generation stage. Of important concern within these emissions are the dioxins and furans ones, whose effect on human health is still in dispute. The amount of km traveled (1,440,000 per year) is also an important burden of this cycle, due to the impact on roads, and on road accidents. Liquid effluents have not been determined, although they are not expected to be significant. As for solid waste generation, only ash production is significant, with some 40,000 t produced yearly. 7.2.1 Atmospheric emissions Table 7.Error! Unknown switch argument. Atmospheric emissions of the waste incineration cycle (g/MWh) 1. MSW transport 2. Waste treatment 3. Ash transport TOTAL PM10 1.8 95 0.2 97 SO2 nd 309 nd 309 NOx 23 1294 0.9 1318 CO2 14,554 850,000 633 865,000 CO 132 325 6 463 HC 10.6 nd 0.5 11 VOC nd 57 nd 57 HCl nd 42 nd 42 PCDD/F nd 1.5e-5 nd 1.5e-5 123 ExternE National Implementation. Spain nd : not determined 7.3 Selection of priority impacts The main impacts that are expected to be produced because of the MSW fuel cycle are those produced by the atmosferic emissions of the generation stage. Of special concern are effects on public health caused by dioxins and furans. Error! Unknown switch argument. displays the impacts of each stage of the MSW fuel cycle. Table 7.Error! Unknown switch argument. Impacts of the MSW fuel cycle. Impact Transport Generation Waste disposal Construction Public health x x x Occupational health x x x Global warming x x x Crops x x x Forests x x x Materials x x x Ecosystems x x x x Visual impact x x Noise x x Odour x Road traffic x The effects of ozone, because of NOx and VOCs emissions, the high insolation of the area, and its urban characteristics are also expected to be significant. However, no ozone dispersion model is available now.The effects of acid pollutants on forests and materials will be also assessed. The effect on crops is not expected to be too large, because of the low SO2 emissions. A specific impact of this cycle is that caused by road traffic, which is very heavy due to the low density of the fuel. The global warming effects of CO2 will also be considered, as well as the workers and public accidents along the cycle. Other impacts such as noise or visual impact will not be assessed due to their local nature. So, the priority impacts that will be assessed are: • • • • • • • Public health, Occupational health, Forests, Ecosystems, Materials, Road traffic, and Global warming. 124 Waste incineration cycle 7.4 Quantification of impacts and damages 7.4.1 MSW transport The major impact of this stage is the road damage caused by the vehicles used for MSW transport. This is justified on the basis of the low energy density of the MSW fuel. However, this impact may be internalized through road taxes in some countries. The impact of atmospheric emissions from transport has not been considered, since the emissions from this stage contribute very little to the total emissions of the whole process. Table 7.Error! Unknown switch argument. Impacts and damages of MSW transport Impact Road accidents Deaths Major injuries Minor injuries Road damages Global warming na: not applicable Burden Impacts Damages Unit per TWh mECU/kWh ECU/t poll. 0.17 0.48 0.88 km traveled CO2 repair costs σg 0.44 6.0e-2 1.7e-3 1.0 na na na na A A A A 5.5e-2 - 2.0 3.8 - 139 C 7.4.2 Waste treatment CO2 and NOx emissions from the power plant cause the largest damages for this stage. The effects on human health, and on materials, of other atmospheric emissions is also significant. Damages on human health are specially large for this case because of its proximity to a very large population centre, Barcelona, what makes TSP damages rise considerably compared to other fuel cycles. One important aspect of this plant is that the local health impacts account for some 85% of the total impacts of the power plant, due to the very high population density of the area. Damages on crops, which might be important for this plant because of the concentration of high value agricultural activity around the area, is certainly underestimated, since only damages for cereals have been assessed. The impacts caused by dioxins and furans, in spite of the social concern involved, are from our estimations four orders of magnitude smaller than for TSP. 125 ExternE National Implementation. Spain Table 7.Error! Unknown switch argument. Impacts and damages of power generation Impact Human health Chronic YOLL Acute YOLL Morbidity Crops Ecosystems Materials Occupational accidents Deaths Major injuries Minor injuries Road damages Global warming na: not applicable Burden TSP Nitrates Sulfates SO2 Ozone Nitrates Ozone CO PCDD SO2 Sulfates TSP SO2 Ozone N dep. Impacts Unit per TWh years years years years 2.00e+1 1.38e+2 2.66e+1 7.57e-1 cases 8.53e+3 cases add. cancer cases cases cases dt yield loss 2.02e+1 1.76e-4 2.89e-1 1.64e+3 1.23e+3 5.60e+2 kg fertilizer added Ac. dep. kg lime added N dep. km2 exceed. area SO2 km2 exceed. area NOx km2 exceed. area SO2 m2 maint. area km traveled CO2 repair costs mECU/kWh Damages ECU/t poll. σg 1.69 11.7 2.24 1.17e-1 7.65e-1 1.50 1.36 1.59e-1 17800 9000 7250 380 676 1160 1202 489 B B? B B B A-B? B B -8.17e+4 2.28e-3 2.79e-1 2.16e-1 4.13e-3 6.25e-1 -1.40e-3 7.36 903 2280 13.4 546 na A-B A-B A-B A B A 4.00e+5 6.86e-3 na A 0 0 0 0 0 0 6.61e+3 9.83e-2 318 B 0.2 1.1 40.6 0.5 1.4e-1 7.8e-2 1.2e-2 na na na na A A A A 3.2 - 118.2 3.8 - 139 C 7.4.3 Ash transport As for other transport stages, the major impact assessed has been road damages, which may already be internalized. It has to be said that the impacts of this stage are very small compared to those of the other stages. 126 Waste incineration cycle Table 7.Error! Unknown switch argument. Impacts and damages of fuel transport Impact Burden Road accidents Deaths Major injuries Minor injuries Road damages Global warming na: not applicable Impacts Damages Unit per TWh mECU/kWh ECU/t poll. 7.7e-3 2.2e-2 3.8e-2 km traveled CO2 repair costs σg 2.0e-2 2.7e-3 7.3e-5 4.3e-2 na na na na A A A A 2e-3 - 8.8e-2 3.8 - 139 C 7.4.4 Impacts and damages related to waste treatment Table 7.Error! Unknown switch argument. Impacts and damages of power generation Impact 1. MSW transport Road accidents Deaths Major injuries Minor injuries Road damages Global warming 2. Waste treatment Human health Chronic mortality Acute mortality Morbidity Crops Materials Occupational accidents Deaths Major injuries Minor injuries Road damages Global warming 3. Ash transport Road accidents Deaths Major injuries Minor injuries Road damages Global warming Damage in ECU per t of waste 1.7e-1 2.3e-2 6.5e-4 3.8e-1 2.1e-2 - 7.7e-1 6.0 4.5e-2 8.2e-1 1.6e-3 3.8e-2 1.9e-1 5.4e-2 3.0e-2 4.6e-3 1.2 – 45.2 7.6e-3 1.0e-3 2.8e-5 1.6e-2 7.4e-4 - 3.3e-2 127 ExternE National Implementation. Spain 7.5 Summary and interpretation of results Table 7.Error! Unknown switch argument. Damages of the waste incineration cycle mECU/kWh σg POWER GENERATION Public health Mortality*- YOLL (VSL) 16.3 (60.9) B of which TSP 1.7 (6.2) SO2 2.4 (11.4) NOx 11.7 (42.8) NOx (via ozone) 0.53 NMVOC (via ozone) 0.23 Morbidity 3.2 of which TSP, SO2, NOx, CO 2.2 A NOx (via ozone) 0.95 B NMVOC (via ozone) 0.41 B PCDD/F ng B Accidents ng A Occupational health 0.72 A Major accidents nq Crops 0.45 B of which SO2 4.1e-3 NOx (via ozone) 0.45 NMVOC (via ozone) 0.17 B Ecosystems ng B Materials 9.8e-2 B Noise nq Visual impacts nq Global warming C low 3.2 mid 3% 15.3 mid 1% 39.1 upper 118.2 OTHER FUEL CYCLE STAGES Public health 0.52 A Occupational health nq A Ecological effects nq B Road damages 1.0 A Global warming C low 5.8e-2 mid 3% 2.7e1 mid 1% 7.0e-1 upper 2.1 *Yoll= mortality impacts based on ‘years of life lost’ approach, VSL= impacts evaluated based on ‘value of statistical life’ approach. ng: negligible; nq: not quantified; iq: only impact quantified; - : not relevant 128 Waste incineration cycle Table 7.Error! Unknown switch argument. Sub-total damages of the waste incineration cycle YOLL (VSL) low mid 3% mid 1% upper mECU/kWh 25.6 (70.2) 37.9 (82.5) 62.1 (106.7) 142.6 (187.2) Table 7.Error! Unknown switch argument. Damages by pollutant SO2 *- YOLL (VSL) NOx *- YOLL (VSL) PM10 *- YOLL (VSL) NOx (via ozone) VOC (via ozone) CO2 ECU / t of pollutant 9001 (38142) 10198 (34224) 20250 (67711) 1500 930 3.8 - 139 *Yoll= mortality impacts based on ‘years of life lost’ approach, VSL= impacts evaluated based on ‘value of statistical life’ approach. The damages of this fuel cycle are rather large (even excluding global warming), mostly due to the site in which it is located, very near to a large population centre. This explains the large damages per t of pollutant emitted. However, it is not really sensible to consider the change of the location, since MSW plants are usually installed near, or inside, large cities. Therefore, since the damages per t of pollutant will be high for most cases, the only way of reducing the damages caused by atmospheric emissions of waste incineration is to reduce emission factors, by improving the environmental performance of the technology. Technology is also responsible for the high damages caused by global warming. If better conversion technologies were used, with higher efficiencies, global warming damages might be reduced. It has to be noted that here MSW have not been considered as renewable, that is, carbon neutral, what is sometimes the case. An important remark to be made is that the effect of dioxins is quite small, contrary to what might be expected according to public concern. These would be the conclusions of the assessment of waste incineration as an energy source. However, that should not be the only point of view. Since MSW should be disposed of anyway, a comparison with the damages caused by alternative disposal schemes should be carried out, so that the net effects might be ascertained. 129 ExternE National Implementation. Spain 130 8. AGGREGATION 8.1 Description of the national electricity sector As shown in section 1.4.2, Spanish electricity comes mainly from three sources: nuclear, hydro, and fossil fuels. Of fossil fuels, the greatest share goes for national coal. The current Spanish electricity mix is conditioned by the non-liberalized nature of the electricity sector. Several restrictions apply, such as the compulsory use of national fuels (27.7 kt of coal and lignites for 1996), environmental regulations, etc. There is a large controversy nowadays about the role that national coal and lignites, specially the latter, will play in the generation mix. Except for some cases, domestic fuels are much more expensive, and much more polluting, than imported coal or gas. However, coal mining provides a very important income source for some areas, and so, its elimination would produce serious social effects. Therefore, it seems that national fuels will still be used at least in the short term. This situation might change in the next years, if the free energy market becomes operative. The large presence of hydro produces also a large variability of the generation mix, depending on climatology. The nuclear share is almost constant, as it is used for base load. The rest changes according to climatology, and to the national coal quotas set by the Government. For 1996, the electricity generation mix for the main grid (i.e., excluding independent power producers and cogeneration) is shown in the following table. Table 8.Error! Unknown switch argument. Spanish electricity generation mix for 1996 Energy source Electricity generated Electricity share (GWh) (%) Nuclear 53,693 33.3 Hydro 41,619 25.8 Coal (national) 35,914 22.2 Coal (imported) 10,328 6.4 Brown lignite 9,459 5.9 Black lignite 9,493 5.9 Gas 732 0.5 Fuel 194 0.1 131 ExternE National Implementation. Spain 8.2 Aggregation methods Two major problems exist for a reasonable aggregation of the external costs of the Spanish electricity sector. The first one is the large amount of electricity generated by nuclear and hydro. The second one is the unavailability of a multi-source EcoSense version for estimating the impacts of atmospheric pollution. Both introduce a large degree of uncertainty in the analysis. Nuclear and hydro fuel cycles have not been deeply studied yet, specially nuclear. Several issues remain to be cleared for this fuel cycle, some of which are expected within the Core Project. However, the implementation of these latest improvements to the existing results, for their use in aggregation, is not available yet. For hydro, the major problem is that most of its impacts are those on local environment and population, and that makes the transferability of results really difficult. As far as the nuclear impact is concerned, the nuclear cycle is different, plant characteristics are not the same, and the sites cannot be compared with the references already estimated. Risk aversion might also be characteristic of the Spanish situation. Therefore, the reliability of the damage transfer to Spanish conditions is not expected to be high. This is further aggravated by the already mentioned fact that most of Spanish electricity comes from these sources. However, since some values are needed to carry out the aggregation, those figures obtained in previous implementations of these fuel cycles will be used. The second problem is the unavailability of a multi-source version of EcoSense software for Spain. This has forced us to use a simpler aggregation method for the damages of atmospheric pollution. The simple method proposed by the Core Project recommended to extrapolate damages per t of pollutant emitted by any plant in the country. However, the research undertaken has demonstrated that the location is really significant for the quantification of the damages. In fact, for three different Spanish plants sited less than 150 km apart from each other, we have obtained damages per t of pollutant emitted which vary around 20%. This may be due, among other reasons, to the background pollutant emissions, which affect results to a significant extent. Therefore, more than one power plant has been analyzed. The assessment has been carried out with EcoSense software. The problem here resides in that the atmospheric dispersion models included in EcoSense are not well suited to the complex Spanish topography, and therefore the accuracy of the results is not expected to be too high. The not consideration of complex topography by EcoSense has determined the selection of the representative locations. This selection has been done based only on a geographical basis, without taking into account the site characteristics, which, in some cases, might prove to be really significant, or the local meteorological conditions. Hence, one real plant has been 132 Aggregation selected for each region in which power plants exist, so that their results might be then extrapolated to the rest of power plants in that area. The power plants selected have been: Puentes de García Rodríguez, Teruel, Aboño, Compostilla, Pasajes, Puertollano, Litoral de Almería, Los Barrios, Colón, and Foix. Since results have been obtained per t of pollutant emitted, they are only dependent on the location of the power plant. Fuel type and technology are introduced in the analysis by the pollutant emission factor, which depends on these two factors. Technological data introduced in EcoSense have been obtained from the Ministry of Industry, and from the fuel consumption and composition provided by electric utilities. These emission factors have been calculated based on the fuel composition, according to estequiometric relationships. Results have then been checked with real emission factors for some of the plants, for which some information was available. By linking the damages per t of pollutant emitted with the emission factors, the damage per kWh generated has been calculated. This damage has then been multiplied by the electricity generation of each power plant in 1996, to obtain the total damages produced for this year. It has to be noted that only the generation stage of the fossil fuel cycles has been assessed. Although the ExternE methodology recommends to address all stages, this would have complicated too much the assessment, without providing substantial changes in the results, due to the very high percentage of total fuel cycle damages caused by the generation stage. However, for some fuel cycles, this simplification may introduce some uncertainties. Only health damages have been included in the analysis. This has been done in order to make it simpler, once considering that, for all cases assessed, health damages make up for more than 99% of the total damages estimated, excluding global warming. These health damages have been estimated based on the YOLL approach, since it is the one preferred by the methodology. Only damages caused by TSP, SO2 and NOx have been considered, since ozone damages are much smaller. Regarding global warming, its assessment has been carried out separately, due to the uncertainty lied to it. Damages have been quantified for the whole Spanish electricity sector, based on the total CO2 emissions. The results obtained using these aggregation methods are shown in the next section. 8.3 Results As has been mentioned, the results presented here should only be regarded as approximate, indicative figures. Besides from the uncertainty lied to the externality assessment process, several uncertainty sources have been introduced in the aggregation procedure, such as the extrapolation of results from one location to another, the determination of emission factors, or the direct extrapolation of nuclear and hydro externalities. 133 ExternE National Implementation. Spain Anyway, it is expected that these results may provide a useful indication of the external costs of the electricity generation system in Spain, so that they may be used for a better environmental management of this system. In the following table, the damages in ECU per t of pollutant emitted are shown for each of the Spanish fossil power plants, along with the emission factors for TSP, NOx, and SO2. Table 8.Error! Unknown switch argument. Damages and emission factors of fossil power plants in Spain Power group National coal Aboño1 Aboño2 Lada3 Lada4 Soto1 Soto2 Soto3 Narcea1 Narcea2 Narcea3 Anllares Compostilla1 Compostilla2 Compostilla3 Compostilla4 Compostilla5 La Robla1 La Robla2 Guardo1 Guardo2 Puertollano Puentenuevo Imported coal Pasajes Litoral Los Barrios Black lignites Serchs Escatrón Teruel1 Teruel2 Teruel3 Escucha Brown lignites Puentes1 Puentes2 Puentes3 Puentes4 Meirama Fuel San Adrián2 Algeciras1 Algeciras2 Escombreras1 Escombreras2 Escombreras3 Escombreras4 134 Emission factors (g/kWh) SO2 NOx TSP SO2 Damages (ECU/t) NOx TSP 6.2 6.3 7.7 7.2 6.4 7.7 7 7.2 7.5 7.3 7.8 7.7 7.8 7.8 7.8 7.8 7.7 7.8 7.2 7.2 7.7 7.8 3.7 3.6 4 3.8 3.1 4 3.7 3.5 3.8 3.7 4 3.9 4 4 4 4 3.9 3.9 3.8 3.8 3.9 4 0.4 0.4 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.6 6991 6991 6991 6991 6991 6991 6991 6991 6991 6991 5813 5813 5813 5813 5813 5813 5813 5813 5813 5813 6361 6361 8170 8170 8170 8170 8170 8170 8170 8170 8170 8170 6554 6554 6554 6554 6554 6554 6554 6554 6554 6554 7556 7556 6121 6121 6121 6121 6121 6121 6121 6121 6121 6121 4876 4876 4876 4876 4876 4876 4876 4876 4876 4876 6483 6483 3.5 3.5 3.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 0.1 0.1 0.1 9583 5657 4219 12076 6136 4651 10780 5083 4418 18.1 3.8 22.1 22.2 22.2 27.5 2.7 3.2 2.8 2.8 2.9 3 0.3 0.5 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 7450 7450 7450 7450 7450 7450 4823 4823 4823 4823 4823 4823 6847 6847 6847 6847 6847 6847 17.3 18 17.3 17.3 23.3 3.1 2.9 3.2 3.1 2.6 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 5073 5073 5073 5073 5073 2918 2918 2918 2918 2918 5262 5262 5262 5262 5262 5.1 5.1 5.1 5.1 5.1 5.1 5.1 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.6 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 8427 4219 4219 5657 5657 5657 5657 8983 4651 4651 6136 6136 6136 6136 8107 4418 4418 5083 5083 5083 5083 Aggregation Power group Escombreras5 Aceca1 Aceca2 Sabón1 Sabón2 Castellón1 Castellón2 Badalona1 Badalona2 Colón1 Colón2 Colón3 Gas Besós1 Besós2 Foix San Adrián 1 San Adrián 3 Elcogas Emission factors (g/kWh) SO2 NOx TSP 5.1 1.6 0.2 5.1 1.6 0.2 5.1 1.6 0.2 5.1 1.6 0.2 5.1 1.6 0.2 5.1 1.6 0.2 5.1 1.6 0.2 5.1 1.6 0.2 5.1 1.6 0.2 5.1 1.6 0.2 5.1 1.6 0.2 5.1 1.6 0.2 0 0 0 0 0 0 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.6 0.4 0 0 0 0 0 0 SO2 5657 6361 6361 5073 5073 8427 8427 8427 8427 4820 4820 4820 Damages (ECU/t) NOx 6136 7556 7556 2918 2918 8983 8983 8983 8983 5753 5753 5753 TSP 5083 6483 6483 5262 5262 8107 8107 8107 8107 5426 5426 5426 8427 8427 8427 8427 8427 6361 8983 8983 8983 8983 8983 7556 8107 8107 8107 8107 8107 6483 These values allow us to calculate the externality of electricity generation by each power plant in mECU/kWh. By multiplying these values by the electricity generated in 1996, we may estimate the damages caused by the generation stage of fossil fuels on human health, which, as said before, make up for most of the total damage caused by these fuel cycles. As mentioned before, the values for nuclear and hydro fuel cycles have been extrapolated directly from European values (the one for nuclear corresponding to a 0% discount rate, which may be more reasonable due to the long-term nature of the impacts), and so the results for these electricity sources should be regarded with caution. All these figures are shown in Error! Unknown switch argument.. 135 ExternE National Implementation. Spain Table 8.Error! Unknown switch argument. Externalities of the Spanish electricity system Power group Damages in mECU/kWh SO2 NOx TSP TOTAL Aboño1 43.34 30.23 2.45 76.02 Aboño2 44.04 29.41 2.45 75.90 Lada3 53.83 32.68 3.67 90.18 Lada4 50.33 31.05 3.06 84.44 Soto1 44.74 25.33 3.06 73.13 Soto2 53.83 32.68 3.67 90.18 Soto3 48.93 30.23 3.06 82.23 Narcea1 50.33 28.60 3.06 81.99 Narcea2 52.43 31.05 3.06 86.54 Narcea3 51.03 30.23 3.06 84.32 Anllares 45.35 26.22 2.93 74.49 Compostilla1 44.76 25.56 2.93 73.25 Compostilla2 45.35 26.22 2.93 74.49 Compostilla3 45.35 26.22 2.93 74.49 Compostilla4 45.35 26.22 2.93 74.49 Compostilla5 45.35 26.22 2.93 74.49 La Robla1 44.76 25.56 2.93 73.25 La Robla2 45.35 25.56 2.93 73.83 Guardo1 41.86 24.91 2.44 69.20 Guardo2 41.86 24.91 2.44 69.20 Puertollano 48.98 29.47 3.89 82.34 Puentenuevo 49.61 30.23 3.89 83.73 NATIONAL COAL 78.20 Pasajes 33.54 30.19 1.08 64.81 Litoral 19.80 15.34 0.51 35.65 Los Barrios 14.76 11.63 0.44 26.84 IMPORTED COAL 36.30 Serchs 134.84 13.02 2.05 149.92 Escatrón 28.31 15.43 3.42 47.16 Teruel1 164.64 13.50 2.05 180.20 Teruel2 165.38 13.50 2.05 180.94 Teruel3 165.38 13.99 2.05 181.42 Escucha 204.87 14.47 2.05 221.39 BLACK LIGNITES 175.35 Puentes1 87.77 9.04 2.63 99.44 Puentes2 91.32 8.46 2.63 102.41 Puentes3 87.77 9.34 2.63 99.74 Puentes4 87.77 9.04 2.63 99.44 Meirama 118.21 7.59 2.63 128.42 BROWN LIGNITES 106.75 San Adrián2 42.98 14.37 1.62 58.97 Algeciras1 21.51 7.44 0.88 29.84 Algeciras2 21.51 7.44 0.88 29.84 Escombreras1 28.85 9.82 1.02 39.68 Escombreras2 28.85 9.82 1.02 39.68 Escombreras3 28.85 9.82 1.02 39.68 Escombreras4 28.85 9.82 1.02 39.68 Escombreras5 28.85 9.82 1.02 39.68 Aceca1 32.44 12.09 1.30 45.83 Aceca2 32.44 12.09 1.30 45.83 Sabón1 25.87 4.67 1.05 31.59 Sabón2 25.87 4.67 1.05 31.59 Castellón1 42.98 14.37 1.62 58.97 Castellón2 42.98 14.37 1.62 58.97 Badalona1 42.98 14.37 1.62 58.97 Badalona2 42.98 14.37 1.62 58.97 Colón1 24.58 9.20 1.09 34.87 Colón2 24.58 9.20 1.09 34.87 Colón3 24.58 9.20 1.09 34.87 136 GWh/yr electricity 2788 3804 757 2401 0 1902 2327 0 384 2265 2586 1008 105 2213 2588 2588 1296 1947 0 1843 1187 1925 35914 1570 4328 4430 10328 476 492 2601 2594 2594 702 9459 2077 1081 1978 2095 2262 9493 0 39 0 0 0 0 0 0 88 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 67 0 Damages in kECU per year Mid % 211945 3.5% 288733 4.7% 68268 1.1% 202741 3.3% 0 0.0% 171526 2.8% 191338 3.1% 0 0.0% 33230 0.5% 190990 3.1% 192622 3.1% 73836 1.2% 7821 0.1% 164838 2.7% 192771 3.1% 192771 3.1% 94931 1.6% 143749 2.3% 0 0.0% 127535 2.1% 97735 1.6% 161180 2.6% 2808558 45.9% 101753 1.7% 154285 2.5% 118881 1.9% 374919 6.1% 71360 1.2% 23205 0.4% 468692 7.7% 469363 7.7% 470614 7.7% 155416 2.5% 1658649 27.1% 206545 3.4% 110707 1.8% 197277 3.2% 208335 3.4% 290497 4.7% 1013361 16.5% 0 0.0% 1164 0.0% 0 0.0% 0 0.0% 0 0.0% 0 0.0% 0 0.0% 0 0.0% 4033 0.1% 0 0.0% 0 0.0% 0 0.0% 0 0.0% 0 0.0% 0 0.0% 0 0.0% 0 0.0% 2336 0.0% 0 0.0% Aggregation Power group Damages in mECU/kWh NOx TSP TOTAL FUEL 38.83 Besós1 0.00 14.37 0.00 14.37 Besós2 0.00 14.37 0.00 14.37 Foix 0.00 14.37 0.00 14.37 San Adrián 1 0.00 14.37 0.00 14.37 San Adrián 3 0.00 14.37 0.00 14.37 Elcogas 0.00 3.02 0.00 3.02 GAS 10.22 Asco1 2 Asco2 2 Almaraz1 2 Almaraz2 2 Cofrentes 8 Vandellós 2 Garoña 8 Trillo 2 J.Cabrera 2 NUCLEAR 3.18 TOTAL HYDRO 2 37.94 TOTAL ELECTRICITY SYSTEM SO2 GWh/yr electricity 194 0 123 180 161 0 268 732 7577 5667 5671 7581 7402 7507 3121 7971 1196 53693 41619 161432 Damages in kECU per year Mid % 7533 0.1% 0 0.0% 1768 0.0% 2587 0.0% 2314 0.0% 0 0.0% 810 0.0% 7479 0.1% 15154 0.2% 11334 0.2% 11342 0.2% 15162 0.2% 59216 1.0% 15014 0.2% 24968 0.4% 15942 0.3% 2392 0.0% 170524 2.8% 83238 1.4% 6,124,261 100.0% The final result is affected, as all the results calculated within this report, by an uncertainty factor. For the damages considered here, that is, health damages, the corresponding uncertainty factor is a B, that is, a σg ranging from 4 to 6. Given that most of the damage is caused by chronic mortality, for which the σg is 4, we will use this value to illustrate the confidence intervals which might be expected for these results. Confidence interval of 68% : 1,531,065 to 24,497,044 kECU Confidence interval of 95% : 382,766 to 97,988,176 kECU As may be seen, the average total figure obtained is rather large, up to more than 106 million Ptas, that is, more than 1% of the Spanish GDP in 1994, or around 47% of the electricity sector turnover in 1996. It has to be reminded that these results do not include global warming damages, which are presented in the following table, aggregated for the whole electricity sector. Table 8.Error! Unknown switch argument. Global warming damages CO2 emissions in kt Damage in ECU per t 70,345 3.8 18 46 139 Total damages in 1996 (kECU per year) 267,311 1,266,210 3,235,870 9,777,955 These figures range from 4.36% to 160% of the mid-estimates for TSP, SO2, and NOx damages. This broad range shows the difficulty of dealing with CO2 effects for the policy case study presented in the next chapter. 137 9. POLICY CASE STUDY 9.1 Introduction The objective of this case study is to include the results obtained from the ExternE Project in a particular aspect of the decision making process. Therefore, the externalities of the energy generation obtained within this project could be used in an economic task such as operation and planning of the electric power systems of an UE country. For the Spanish case, it is being developed a production cost model to simulate and optimise the operation of the system under medium term analysis. The integration of the external costs among the different generation technologies in the model, and to evaluate the system performance under social costs minimisation criterion, are the main objectives of this policy case study. The main tasks of this policy case are the following. • ExternE methodology to be used and calculation of externalities. The ExternE Project will be used as the main source of information for the calculation of externalities. The fuel cycle will be analysed and external costs will be estimated for representative plants of the Spanish electricity network. The results will be estimated for representative plants of the Spanish electricity system. • Model for the exploitation of the electricity network: development of the model, and adaptation of the model for the introduction of externalities. A computer model will be described and developed to provide the minimum variable cost for the exploitation of the Spanish electricity network, subject to operating constraints such as generation, transmission and national fuel consumption limits. The model will be adapted to enable the introduction of externalities into the final decision process. • Evaluation and analysis of different cases. Different case studies will be defined varying parameters of the model such as demand scenarios, hydraulic years, consumption of national fuels, etc. The selected cases will be run and the obtained results will be analysed. 139 ExternE National Implementation. Spain 9.2 Policy case study description The electricity network model is being developed by the Institute for Research in Technology (IIT) of the "Universidad Pontificia Comillas" of Madrid. The model will be of the operational type and not a planning tool. The aim of the program will be to provide the minimum variable cost for the exploitation of the Spanish electricity network, subject to operating constraints such as generation and fuel consumption limits. It is being designed to represent yearly operation of the Spanish electric power system, and it would be used for medium term economic planning. The Spanish electricity system is composed of hydroelectric, nuclear and thermal units. These last units are mainly coal plants, which consume national and imported coal. National coal has compulsory consumption quota set by the Government, which is one of the constraints of the system. Each one of these areas of electricity production has a different contribution to the domestic production. Their share may vary depending on the hydro inflows per year, fuel imports policy or other yearly constraints. All the electricity production units of the country that exceed a certain capacity are included in the program. At the moment, only the internal costs of the system are taken into account to perform the economic central dispatch of the overall generation units of the Spanish electric power. The integration of external costs in the model may vary in a significant way the decision process. The external cost associated to each plant can be introduced as another defining parameter for the system. The ExternE Project provides site and technology specific studies, so each unit would have its associated external cost expressed in terms of mECU/kWh. As is will not be possible to carry out an study for each electricity generation unit in the country, a representative case for each kind of plant will be analysed. For the rest of the units, some extrapolation will be necessary. To perform this task, results from the aggregation part of the ExternE Project will be deemed necessary, as explained in section 8. The results from this case study will give a first approximation of the influence of external costs in the medium term economic planning of the electricity power system of an EU country. 9.3 Model description Power plants have been traditionally dispatched by minimum fuel cost criteria, in what has been called economic dispatch optimal load flow. This process did not consider the contamination produced in the energy generation, mainly in the generated with fossil fuels. The tool described in this document permits the evaluation of the contamination reduction mechanisms in large electric systems (more than 100 generators). It is a model of annual operation that reproduces the system considering in detail the generation activities. It also considers the cogeneration as well as the energy interchanges with other systems. It models 140 Policy case study precisely the most relevant pollutants and apply the external costs that their contamination implies. Some of its results are the gross and net monthly productions, fuel consumption, different pollutant emissions and variable and external costs of operation. All these can be obtained in different optimisation conditions as minimum emissions, minimum social costs, minimum operation costs under certain pollutants constraints, etc. This model provides the minimum variable cost (or social) subject to operating constraints (generation, fuel and emissions constraints). Generation constraints include power reserve margin with respect to the system peak load, balance between generation and demand, hydro energy scheduling, maintenance scheduling, and generation limitations. Fuel constraints include minimum consumption quotas and fuel scheduling for domestic coal thermal plants. Emissions constraints apply to fossil fuel units. The relevant decision variables and the real operation of the power system are adequately represented, two types of decisions are addressed: • Interperiod decisions are those regarding resources planning for multiple periods. In particular, maintenance scheduling for thermal units, yearly hydro energy scheduling, seasonal operation of pumped-hydro units (A pumped-hydro unit is a pump-turbine having a large upper reservoir with seasonal storage capability that receives water from pumping and also from natural hydro inflows. By the contrary, a pumped-storage unit has a small upper reservoir filled only from pumped water allowing just a weekly or dairy cycle), and fuel scheduling are represented. The model determines the optimal hydrothermal coordination (i.e., the use of hydro against thermal generation resources). • Intraperiod decisions correspond to a generation economic dispatch. In particular, those related to weekly/daily operation of pumped-storage units and commitment decisions of thermal units. This operations planning problem is formulated as a large-scale mixed integer optimisation problem. The model has been implemented in GAMS, a mathematical specification language specially indicated for the solution of optimisation problems, and solved by using CPLEX, a well-known MIP solver. The medium term planning problem is stochastic by nature. Uncertainties arise in load, hydro inflows, thermal unit availability, etc. However, the model described is deterministic. Stochasticity in unit availability and load can be naturally implemented within this methodology via scenarios. Uncertainty in hydro inflows is modelled deterministically because medium term operation planning is performed under the assumption of average hydrology. No model with this whole set of characteristics (i.e., fuel, maintenance and hydro scheduling on one hand and commitment decisions on the other hand) has been found in the literature. Models deciding seasonal hydro scheduling, usually based on stochastic dynamic programming or decomposition methods, represent in detail the spatial hydro dependencies but usually ignore the fuel and maintenance scheduling problems. Medium term fuel scheduling is decided using a large-scale linear programming approach in several works. 141 ExternE National Implementation. Spain Maintenance scheduling has been solved by many different techniques, decomposition techniques and integer programming among others. Combined seasonal and weekly/daily operation of pumped units has not been addressed so far. Emissions dispatch and social costs have been recently incorporated in production cost models and not in detail as in this tool. 9.3.1 System Description A production cost model determines the variables defining the system operation at minimum variable cost for the scope of the model. Let us define horizon as the point in time for which the system operation is to be modelled and scope as the duration of the time interval to be studied. In this medium term model, the horizon is two or three years ahead and the scope is usually one year. The scope is divided into periods, subperiods and load levels. Typically, periods will correspond to months, subperiods to weekdays and weekends of a month, and load levels to peak, plateau and off-peak hours. The load for each period is modelled as a staircase load duration curve, where an step is a load level. Hence, generation will be constant for each load level. Each thermal, hydroelectric, pumped-hydro and pumped-storage unit is modelled individually. Each thermal unit is divided into two blocks, being the minimum load block the first. Heat rate is specified by a straight line with independent and linear terms. Random outages are deterministically modelled by derating the unit’s full capacity by its equivalent forced outage rate. A thermal plant consists of units in a physical plant. Fuel constraints affect the fuel consumption of domestic coal thermal plants. Very small hydro units are aggregated. Spatial dependencies among hydro plants are considered irrelevant to the medium term thermal generation scheduling problem and ignored. Therefore, the variation in the hydro energy reserve of a reservoir due to the generation in a hydroelectric plant located upstream is not taken into account. Only the economic utilisation of pumped units is considered. This economic function includes both the transference of energy from off-peak hours to peak hours and the alleviation of minimum load conditions in off-peak hours or maximum load conditions in peak hours. Additionally, these units may be operated for reliability purposes keeping their upper reservoirs full at the beginning of each week but this operation is not represented in the model. 9.3.2 Emissions modelling The emissions modelling of pollutants is quite recent in this type of tools and in the analysis of electric systems operation. Each power group with fossil fuel is modelled as a focus emitter of pollutants. For this purpose it is necessary to define the combustion conditions (humidity, temperature, % O 2, etc.), in the boiler and in the exit of the chimney. A detailed model needs as well the elementary analysis of the fuel or fuels used in the unit. 142 Policy case study In this tool four emissions are considered: the sulphur dioxide, the nitrogen oxides, the particles and the carbon dioxide. The legal limits are introduced in the model as constraints. The form can vary: some times it is the concentration of pollutants in the exhaust gases from the chimney; in others it is the total amount of emissions in a group of generators or in a single one. 9.3.3 Model Formulation As mentioned previously this medium term production cost model performs hydro, maintenance and fuel scheduling, seasonal operation of pumped-hydro units, weekly/daily operation of pumped-storage units, and thermal unit commitment for a generation system. The model is formulated as a large-scale mixed integer optimisation problem. The objective function to be minimised is the total variable cost for the scope of the model subject to operating constraints. These can be classified into inter and intraperiod, according to the periods that are involved in. The interperiod constraints are associated to the co-ordination in the use of limited resources (minimum quotas of fuel consumption, hydro inflows, seasonal pumping, storage and generation). The intraperiod constraints deal with the system operation in each period (thermal unit commitment, weekly/dairy pumping, storage and generation limits). The detailed mathematical formulation of the objective function, the constraints and the variables involved in the problem are described elsewhere. Here, it is described their meaning. A. Objective Functions • Objective function #1. The first objective function is the minimisation of the fuel costs (including independent and linear terms of the heat rate and O&M variable costs) plus start-up costs plus storage costs of fuel stocks plus some penalties (due to non served power, interruptibility, and reserve margin defect) for all the load levels, subperiods and periods of the time scope. • Objective function #2. It is the minimisation of social costs, including operation variable costs set in objective function #1 and the environmental external costs associated to the power generation. Usually the externalities are associated to a technology or to a particular facility. This last is better as the environmental and its valorisation depend in the location of the unit. The externalities can be defined in different ways: in monetary value per kWh produced or in monetary value per tonne of pollutant produced. In this model both ways are available. • Objective function #3. It represents the minimisation of pollutants. The unit dispatch under economic and environmental criteria is to reduce the pollutants emissions caused in the fossil fuelled generation. The reduction can be reached through constraints or with penalties in the objective function in the system operation. When this is done in the objective function it is called emissions dispatch (the previous functions are considered economic dispatch). 143 ExternE National Implementation. Spain B. Interperiod Constraints These constraints tie all the periods considered in the model and correspond to maintenance, fuel and hydro scheduling. • Maintenance Scheduling The units will be an integer number of periods in maintenance according to the specified requirement. Also limits on the maximum number of thermal units simultaneously on maintenance on the same plant and on the maximum thermal capacity simultaneously on maintenance in any period with respect to the total installed thermal capacity are imposed. Contiguity among the periods in maintenance is required too if more than one is specified. • Fuel Scheduling For each thermal plant, the stock level at the beginning of each period is a function of the previous stock and the purchase and consumption done in the period. The initial and final storage levels are prespecified by the user. It represents the must-buy fuel purchase mandated by socio-economic and political considerations for domestic coal plants, although their cost can be more expensive than other available fuels. • Hydro Scheduling For each hydro unit, the hydro reserve level at the beginning of each period is a function of the previous level, the hydro inflow, pumping and generation on that period. The initial and final hydro reserves are specified by the user. C. Intraperiod Constraints These constraints are internal to each period and represent the thermal unit commitment, the security constraint based on the reserve margin, generation-demand balance and the weekly/dairy operation of pumped-storage units. • Reserve Margin A power reserve margin for the peak load level of each subperiod must be met. This constraint represents the condition imposed to provide some amount of power available to account for increments in demand or failures of committed generation units. • Generation-Demand Balance Balance between generation and demand for any load level including non served power and interruptibility. • Pumped-Storage Units 144 Policy case study Balance between pumped and generated energy by pumped-storage units in a period and a reservoir limit imposed to the pumped energy. • Thermal Generation Constraints For each thermal unit the maximum generation is less than the maximum available capacity and the minimum generation is greater than the minimum load. Thermal unit commitment related constraints state that the unit’s output during higher load levels must be larger than its generation in lower load levels and that the commitment decision in a higher load subperiod (weekdays) must be greater than the commitment decision in a lower load subperiod (weekends). The above constraints enforce a minimum generation for each thermal unit committed at peak load level. Note that since the heat rate curves are represented as linear curves, during any load level all the committed units will be at their maximum output except one marginal unit. D. Environmental Constraints The limitation of emissions in power generation can have different formulation. It can focus in the total amount of emissions, in the concentration in the exhaust gases or in the contamined land (inmissions). The scope can also be annual, monthly, hourly, etc. Finally it can refer to the units individually or to a group of them. This model reproduces the Spanish power system through the following types of contraints: • Maximum SO2 emissions in the old and new units • Maximum NOX emissions in the old and new units • Maximum particles emissions in new units • Minimum rate of desulphurization • etc. E. Variables All the variables involved in the previous formulation are: maintenance decisions, fuel stock levels, hydro productions, consumption of pumped-hydro units, hydro energy reserves, commitment decisions of thermal units, thermal generations, generation and consumption of weekly/dairy pumped-storage units, non served power, interruptible power and reserve margin defect. The initial and final fuel stocks levels for each thermal plant and the initial and final energy reserves for each hydro unit are predefined by the user. 145 ExternE National Implementation. Spain The variables regarding operation of the pumped-hydro and pumped-storage units are defined only for the periods, subperiods and load levels where they are meaningful according to the system operation. The variables commitment and maintenance decisions for thermal units cause the problem to be mixed integer with the associated difficulty to be solved. Codes with such feature are needed, such as CPLEX or OSL for example. 9.3.4 Implementation The model has been implemented in GAMS version 2.25, a mathematical specification language specially indicated for the solution of optimisation problems. It allows the creation of large and complex problems in a concise and reliable manner. This language lets the user to concentrate on the modelling problem by eliminating the writing details of special code in the preliminary stages of algorithmic development. GAMS is flexible and powerful. This flexibility is crucial in the development and test of new algorithms. The problem as previously formulated is a large-scale mixed integer optimisation problem. Its size for the Spanish electric power system is about 10000 rows, 9000 variables, being 2500 discrete, and 38000 non zero elements in the constraints matrix. In particular recent developments in branch and bound and interior point methods are specially suited for the solution of these problems. Several MIP solvers can be used in conjunction with the GAMS language, CPLEX and OSL for example. Careful attention when solving a large-scale optimisation problem should be paid to the scalation of constraints and variables. So GW is taken as the natural unit for power, TWh for energy, Tpta for monetary unit and kTcal for heat consumption. The implementation of this model and its resolution using direct solution of the global problem using this compact and elegant algebraic language takes only 1400 lines of code. The model can be used in any hardware platform where GAMS and the solvers were available. Currently, a personal computer is being used. The model presented is being used as a economic and operations planning tool representing the large-scale Spanish electric power system. The model provides the minimum variable cost subject to operating constraints (generation and fuel constraints). Generation constraints include power reserve margin with respect to the system peak load, generation-demand balance, maintenance scheduling, hydro energy scheduling, and generation limitations. Fuel constraints include minimum consumption quotas and fuel scheduling for domestic coal thermal plants. The relevant decision variables and the real operation of the power system are adequately represented. Two types of decisions are addressed: interperiod decisions are those regarding resources planning for multiple periods, (i.e., maintenance scheduling, yearly hydro energy scheduling, seasonal operation of pumped-hydro units, and fuel scheduling) and intraperiod decisions correspond to a generation optimal economic dispatch (i.e., weekly/daily operation of pumped-storage units and commitment decisions of thermal units). 146 Policy case study The operations planning problem is formulated as a large-scale mixed integer optimisation problem. The model has been formulated in GAMS, a modelling language specially indicated for the solution of optimisation problems, and solved by using a simplex or interior point method with different well-known solvers. The model is a very powerful and flexible tool easily adaptable to any electric power system. 9.4 Case Study: Spanish Power System According to data extracted from 1994 statistical records, the Spanish power system met a maximum peak load of 25336 MW and a yearly energy demand of 145670 GWh. The installed generation capacity is 42096 MW (16110 MW are hydro, 10675 MW coal, 7910 MW oil/gas and 7401 MW nuclear). There are about 71 thermal generators (8 nuclear, 36 coal and the remaining oil/gas). Their production is about 80 % of the total generation. There are 70 hydro units with capacity greater than 5 MW and annual energy production greater than 100 GWh, that can be grouped into about 10 basins. In the model they have been used units smaller than these. The maximum capacity at the same location is 915 MW. They produce as an average about 20 % of the total generation, ranging in between 13 % and 28 %, depending on the hydrology. There are 8 pumped storage units, but their impact on annual energy production is minimum (about 1%). The model has been designed to represent the Spanish electric power system. The characteristics of the system regarding time division and number of elements are presented in the first table. The time required to run this model depends on the option been solved. For the electric power system shown two options have been executed, the first one has a hydro units aggregation and discrete commitment and maintenance decisions and in second one the hydro units has been treated individually but there is a relaxation of the discrete decisions. The following table shows the sizes of the problem and the time consumption. Time is expressed in seconds, corresponding to a PC 486 at 33 MHz. Periods Subperiods/period Load levels/subperiod Coal units Fuel-oil units Natural gas units Nuclear units Thermal plants Hydro/Pumped-Hydro units Pumped-Storage units 12 2 3 and 2 36 22 5 9 16 122 8 147 ExternE National Implementation. Spain 9.5 Externalities of the Spanish Electrical System The externalities of the Spanish electricity system have been calculated in the previous section on Aggregation. Details for these calculations may be found there. 9.5.1 Fossil fuels power units Externalities of several plants have been calculated, extrapolating the results for the rest of the system units. In the extrapolation some attributes for each plant have been considered: • location • fuel • technology These two last aspects determine the emissions rate for the main pollutants. This rate is the most important factor of the extrapolation. System units characteristics are described in the next pages. 9.5.1.1 Thermal units data For each thermal unit: • Thermal unit identification • Maximum and minimum rated capacity (MW) • Heat rate (linear and independent terms) The parameters A and B are the linear and independent terms respectively of the heat rate curve of each power plant. Th./MWh and Th./h are the natural units taken for each term. • Commitment hours in 1996 operation The time when the unit is committed producing between the minimum and the maximum rated capacity. • Energy production in 1996 operation (GWh). 148 Policy case study Table 9.Error! Unknown switch argument. Coal units description (1996). Coal and lignite Units Anthracite Aboño 1 Aboño 2 Lada 3 Lada 4 Soto 1 Soto 2 Soto 3 Narcea 1 Narcea 2 Narcea 3 Anllares Compostilla1 Compostilla2 Compostilla3 Compostilla4 Compostilla5 La Robla1 La Robla2 Guardo1 Guardo2 Puertollano Puentenuevo Imported coal Pasajes Litoral Los Barrios Black lignite Serchs Escatrón Teruel1 Teruel2 Teruel3 Escucha Brown lignite Puentes1 Puentes2 Puentes3 Puentes4 Meirama Maximum capacity (MW) Minimum capacity (MW) A (Th./kWh) B (Th./h) Commitment hours 1996 Energy (GWh) 1996 360 543 155 350 68 254 350 65 154 350 350 141 141 330 350 350 270 350 148 350 220 313 200 256 70 180 48 160 175 35 85 220 170 65 70 160 175 175 140 220 74 150 80 150 2210 2130 2390 2210 2670 2210 2210 2670 2390 2210 2210 2390 2390 2210 2210 2210 2210 2210 2390 2210 2210 2210 55000 77000 31000 55000 15000 44000 55000 15000 31000 55000 55000 31000 31000 55000 55000 55000 44000 55000 31000 55000 44000 55000 8366 7589 5700 7651 0 7921 7380 0 2828 7111 7756 7238 1493 6765 7393 7393 5492 6162 0 6192 6346 7000 2788 3804 757 2401 0 1902 2327 0 384 2265 2586 1008 105 2213 2588 2588 1296 1947 0 1843 1187 1925 214 550 550 105 180 180 2130 2130 2130 77000 77000 77000 7921 8397 8453 1570 4328 4430 160 80 350 350 350 160 80 44 180 180 180 80 2410 2140 2260 2260 2260 2410 33000 19000 57000 57000 57000 33000 3426 6534 7486 7452 7453 4856 476 492 2601 2594 2594 702 350 350 350 350 550 230 230 230 230 270 2390 2390 2390 2390 2390 59000 59000 59000 59000 83000 6518 3393 6205 6545 4744 2077 1081 1978 2095 2262 149 ExternE National Implementation. Spain Table 9.Error! Unknown switch argument. Fuel-oil units description (1996). Fuel-oil Units San Adrián2 Algeciras1 Algeciras2 Escombreras1 Escombreras2 Escombreras3 Escombreras4 Escombreras5 Aceca1 Aceca2 Sabón1 Sabón2 Castellón1 Castellón2 Badalona 1 Badalona 2 Colón1 Colón2 Colón3 Maximum capacity (MW) 350 220 533 70 70 140 289 289 314 314 120 350 542 542 172 172 70 148 160 Minimum capacity (MW) 100 66 160 20 20 4 100 100 61 61 40 100 140 140 55 55 22 43 48 A (th/kWh) B (th/h) 2190 2130 2190 2650 2650 2360 2190 2190 2190 2190 2360 2190 2120 2120 2360 2360 2650 2360 2360 48000 77000 38000 14500 14500 29000 43000 43000 43000 43000 29000 48000 77000 77000 29000 29000 14500 29000 29000 Commitment hours 1996 0 216 0 0 0 0 0 0 354 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 555 0 Energy (GWh) 1996 0 39 0 0 0 0 0 0 88 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 67 0 Table 9.Error! Unknown switch argument. Natural gas units description (1996). Natural gas Units Besos1 Besos2 Foix San Adrián1 San Adrián3 Elcogas Maximum capacity (MW) 150 300 520 350 350 335 Minimum capacity (MW) 45 60 100 100 100 0 A (th/kWh) B (th/h) 2310 2130 2060 2130 2130 1260 25000 37000 67000 42000 42000 106000 Commitment hours 1996 0 516 436 564 0 1790 Energy (GWh) 1996 0 123 180 161 0 268 Table 9.Error! Unknown switch argument. Nuclear units description (1996). Nuclear Units Asco1 Asco2 Almaraz1 Almaraz2 Cofrentes Vandellós Garoña Trillo J. Cabrera 150 Maximum capacity (MW) 930 930 931 931 990 1004 460 1066 160 Minimum capacity (MW) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 A (th/kWh) B (th/h) 1000 1000 1000 1000 1000 1000 1000 1000 1000 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Commitment hours Energy (GWh) 1996 1996 8147 6093 6093 8147 7477 7477 6785 7477 7477 7577 5667 5671 7581 7402 7507 3121 7971 1196 Policy case study For each fuel of all thermal units: • Analysis of primary and secondary fuels The immediate analysis of any fuel is a simple composition used in commercial terms. It is composed by four components: humidity, ash, volatile and carbon. It is normally accompanied by the percentage of sulphur in the fuel. %H humidity %C ash %V volatile %Cf carbon %S sulphur • Maximum use of the secondary fuel (%) It is the maximum percentage mix with the primary fuel that can be burned in the boiler of each unit. For each technology: • Specific SO2 emissions rate (g/kWh) (1996) • Specific NOx emissions rate (g/kWh) (1996) • Specific CO2 emissions rate (g/kWh) (1996) • Specific TSP emissions rate (g/kWh) (1996) Table 9.Error! Unknown switch argument. Specific SO2, NOx, CO2 and TSP emissions rates (g/kWh) (1996). Technology anthracite lignite 1 lignite 2 imported coal fuel-oil natural gas SO2 (g/kWh) 7.8 37.9 26.8 3.5 5.1 0.0 NOx (g/kWh) 4.0 3.2 2.5 2.5 1.6 1.6 CO2 (g/kWh) 924 936 1108 855 781 781 TSP (g/kWh) 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.1 0.2 0.2 9.5.1.2 Externalities of fossil fuels units As mentioned, the externalities of the thermal units have been quantified extrapolating the results obtained for some of the most representative plants. The units considered for the first analysis are: 151 ExternE National Implementation. Spain • Puentes de G.R. (brown lignite) • Teruel (black lignite) • Compostilla (anthracite) • Aboño (anthracite) • Pasajes (imported coal) • Litoral de Almería (imported coal) • Puertollano (natural gas) • Colón (fuel-oil) • Foix (natural gas) These units have been chosen considering their geographic location. For them, health damages at regional scale due to SO2, NOX and TSP emissions have been assessed. In this study, only health damages have been included considering that other quantifiable impacts are negligible excepting the possible impact of global warming due to CO2 emissions-; it is concluded that the considered impacts are sufficient for our analysis. The externalities obtained are shown in the next tables. There are two types of results: damage estimates in mECU/t of pollutant emitted and in mECU/kWh produced. The second is obtained using the specific emission rate of each unit and pollutant. The model uses the first type of estimation in order to choose one or other fuel considering its environmental, economic or technical characteristics in each unit. 152 Policy case study Table 9.Error! Unknown switch argument. Externalities of the Spanish Power System. Coal units. Unit Aboño 1 Aboño 2 Lada 3 Lada 4 Soto Ribera 1 Soto Ribera 2 Soto Ribera 3 Narcea 1 Narcea 2 Narcea 3 Anllares Compostilla 1 Compostilla 2 Compostilla 3 Compostilla 4 Compostilla 5 La Robla 1 La Robla 2 Guardo 1 Guardo 2 Puertollano Puentenuevo Pasajes Litoral Los Barrios Serchs Escatrón Teruel 1 Teruel 2 Teruel 3 Escucha Puentes 1 Puentes 2 Puentes 3 Puentes 4 Meirama Damages mECU/kWh 76.02 75.90 90.18 84.44 73.13 90.18 82.23 81.99 86.54 84.32 74.49 73.25 74.49 74.49 74.49 74.49 73.25 73.83 69.20 69.20 82.34 83.73 64.81 35.65 26.84 149.92 47.16 180.20 180.94 181.42 221.39 99.74 102.41 99.74 99.44 128.42 Damages ECU/t SO2 6991 6991 6991 6991 6991 6991 6991 6991 6991 6991 5813 5813 5813 5813 5813 5813 5813 5813 5813 5813 6361 6361 9583 5657 4219 7450 7450 7450 7450 7450 7450 5073 5073 5073 5073 5073 Damages ECU/t NOX 8170 8170 8170 8170 8170 8170 8170 8170 8170 8170 6554 6554 6554 6554 6554 6554 6554 6554 6554 6554 7556 7556 12076 6136 4651 4823 4823 4823 4823 4823 4823 2918 2918 2918 2918 2918 Damages ECU/t TSP 6121 6121 6121 6121 6121 6121 6121 6121 6121 6121 4876 4876 4876 4876 4876 4876 4876 4876 4876 4876 6483 6483 10780 5083 4418 6847 6847 6847 6847 6847 6847 5262 5262 5262 5262 5262 153 ExternE National Implementation. Spain Table 9.Error! Unknown switch argument. Externalities of the Spanish Power System. Fueloil units Unit San Adrián 2 Algeciras 1 Algeciras 2 Escombreras 1 Escombreras 2 Escombreras 3 Escombreras 4 Escombreras 5 Aceca 1 Aceca 2 Sabón 1 Sabón 2 Castellón 1 Castellón 2 Badalona 1 Badalona 2 Colón 1 Colón 2 Colón 3 Damages mECU/kWh 58.97 29.84 29.84 39.68 39.68 39.68 39.68 39.68 45.83 45.83 31.59 31.59 58.97 58.97 34.87 34.87 34.87 34.87 34.87 Damages ECU/t SO2 8427 4219 4219 5657 5657 5657 5657 5657 6361 6361 5073 5073 8427 8427 8427 8427 4820 4820 4820 Damages ECU/t NOX 8983 4651 4651 6136 6136 6136 6136 6136 7556 7556 2918 2918 8983 8983 8983 8983 5753 5753 5753 Damages ECU/t TSP 8107 4418 4418 5083 5083 5083 5083 5083 6483 6483 5262 5262 8107 8107 8107 8107 5426 5426 5426 Table 9.Error! Unknown switch argument. Externalities of the Spanish Power System. Natural gas units Unit Besós 1 Besós 2 Foix San Adrián 1 San Adrián 3 Elcogas Damages mECU/kWh 14.37 14.37 14.37 14.37 14.37 3.02 Damages ECU/t SO2 8427 8427 8427 8427 8427 6361 Damages ECU/t NOX 8983 8983 8983 8983 8983 7556 Damages ECU/t TSP 8107 8107 8107 8107 8107 6483 9.5.2 Nuclear units As mentioned before, the values for nuclear and hydro fuel cycles have been extrapolated directly from European values, and so the results for these electricity sources should be regarded with caution. Two different values are used for the two nuclear technologies. 154 Policy case study Table 9.Error! Unknown switch argument. Externalities of Spanish Power System. Nuclear units Unit Asco 1 Asco 2 Almaraz 1 Almaraz 2 Cofrentes Vandellós Garoña Trillo J. Cabrera Technology PWR PWR PWR PWR BWR PWR BWR PWR PWR Damages mECU/kWh 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 8.0 2.0 8.0 2.0 2.0 In the nuclear generation, only damages by kWh produced are considered. 9.5.3 Hydro units In the hydraulic generation the externalities have not been calculated for each unit specifically. For the hydro cycle (hydro and pumped-storage units), externalities have been extrapolated directly from European values. Even the pumped-storage units have this same value per kWh generated. Table 9.Error! Unknown switch argument. Externalities of Spanish Power System. Hydro units All units Damages mECU/kWh 2.0 9.5.4 Other units Wind and biomass generation technologies are of very little importance in the Spanish system. Thus, they have not been incorporated. Cogenerators produce a significative amount of energy but they have not been considered in this study because its externalities have not been quantified for the moment. 9.6 Analysis of the operation of the Spanish Power System To quantify the total external costs of the power generation in the operation of the Spanish system in 1996, 5 dispatch strategies have been studied: 155 ExternE National Implementation. Spain • Current centralised dispatch, with optimisation of the standard variable costs, with and without domestic coal constraints due to energy policies (A.1 and A.2) • Minimisation of the standard variable costs, including the environmental externalities, with and without domestic coal constraints due to energy policies (B.1 and B.2). • Minimisation of the standard variable costs, including the 30% of the environmental externalities, with and without domestic coal constraints due to energy policies (C.1 and C.2). A.1 and A.2 strategies consist in operating the system being the objective function the minimisation of the standard variable costs of operation (objective function #1) with the operation, reliability and environmental constraints described in section 9.3.3. Case A.1 is the reference case for the later comparison with the other strategies. Strategies B.1 and B.2 have both the objective function (#2) of minimisation of the social costs of the system operation but B.1 includes the constraints of minimum consumption of domestic coal due to energy policies and B.2 does not. In cases C.1 and C.2 the formulation is similar to cases B being the only difference that cases C only consider the 30% of the externalities calculated for the Spanish power system. The interest of these strategies is because this is the percentage estimate that can affect the Spanish system, being a first approximation for the external costs generated by the power system in Spain. In all cases the values for the externalities are held in mECUs by ton of emitted pollutant, except in the nuclear and hydro technologies where the values are in mECUs per kWh generated. 156 Policy case study 9.7 Results and conclusions Table 9.Error! Unknown switch argument. CASE A. Operation results in 1996 of the Spanish power system 1996 Case A.1 Case A.2 Total variable costs (million ptas.) 335,478 315,957 Total external costs 1,314,709 803,580 TOTAL SOCIAL COSTS 1,650,187 1,118,537 30,352 51,133 8,957 8,780 33,575 10,436 61,747 0 893 30,135 51,133 7,332 966 39,837 10,490 58,625 2,805 893 142,196 142,196 Pumping consumption 1,930 1,619 EMISSIONS of SO2 (kt) 1,105 678 EMISSIONS of NOX (kt) 219 214 EMISSIONS of TSP (kt) 23.7 20 EMISSIONS of CO2 (kt) 77,016 77,616 NET GENERATION (GWh) hydro nuclear brown lignite* black lignite* anthracite* imported coal total COAL fuel-oil natural gas NET GENERATION (GWh) * are referred to the total production of the units which main fuel is this one, although they use another. 157 ExternE National Implementation. Spain Table 9.Error! Unknown switch argument. CASES B.1 and B.2. Operation results in 1996 of the Spanish power system 1996 Case B.2 Total direct variable costs (million ptas.) Total external costs 364,851 1,170,439 366,240 206,732 TOTAL SOCIAL COSTS 1,535,290 572,972 29,451 51,133 8,588 8,760 27,677 0 45,024 14,334 2,895 31,293 51,133 0 0 3,083 8,583 11,667 38,988 12,388 142,196 142,196 643 3,274 1,058 166 EMISSIONS of NOX (kt) 164 59 EMISSIONS of TSP (kt) 19.8 1.7 EMISSIONS of CO2 (kt) 73,359 48,178 NET GENERATION (GWh) hydro nuclear brown lignite black lignite anthracite imported coal total COAL fuel-oil natural gas NET GENERATION (GWh) Pumping consumption EMISSIONS of SO2 (kt) 158 Case B.1 Policy case study Table 9.Error! Unknown switch argument. CASES C.1 and C.2. Operation results in 1996 of the Spanish power system 1996 Case C.1 Case C.2 Total direct variable costs (million ptas.) 352,212 354,989 Total external costs 358,711 69,891 TOTAL SOCIAL COSTS 710,923 424,880 29,253 51,133 10,283 8,772 27,694 4,417 51,166 9,254 1,794 29,253 51,133 0 0 6,957 8,834 15,791 34,721 11,657 142,196 142,196 360 359 1,079 175 EMISSIONS of NOX (kt) 177 70 EMISSIONS of TSP (kt) 21 2.6 EMISSIONS of CO2 (kt) 74,557 49,623 NET GENERATION (GWh) hydro nuclear brown lignite black lignite anthracite imported coal total COAL fuel-oil natural gas GENERATION (GWh) Pumping consumption EMISSIONS of SO2 (kt) Table 9.Error! Unknown switch argument. Coal consumption among the different cases (kt) brown lignite A.1 9,635 A.2 6,208 B.1 9,635 B.2 0 C.1 9,635 C.2 0 159 ExternE National Implementation. Spain black lignite anthracite imported coal total COAL 4,092 13,720 9,566 36,552 0 7,999 16,373 30,580 4,092 13,720 3,338 30,785 0 0 4,038 4,038 4,092 13,720 5,826 33,273 0 0 5,523 5,523 • CASES A.1 and A.2 Strategy A.1 is the operation in 1996 of the Spanish power system with constraints on the domestic coal (minimum consumption) due to energy policy. This compulsory consumption is distributed among the different coal areas. The domestic coal quota for the whole power system is 27.5 kt, being black lignite (4 kt), anthracite (14 kt) and brown lignite (9.5 kt). The system operation under minimum variable costs in 1996 gives a result of 335,478 million ptas. The distribution of net energy generated by the different technologies is the following: • coal 43% • nuclear 35,5% • hydro 21% • natural gas 0,5% The total SO2 emissions are 1,105,000 tons. This amount is distributed among the different technologies as follows: • brown lignite: 272 kt • black lignite: 333 kt • anthracite: 295 kt • imported coal: 49 kt • natural gas: 0.8 kt As we see, it is the black lignite which produces the biggest amount of this kind of pollutant. However, the energy generated by this technology (8,780 GWh) is less than the energy produced by the anthracite units (33,484 GWh). This results in very different emissions rates of SO2 by kWh generated: 28.8 g/kWh for brown lignite, 38.2 g/kWh for black lignite, 9.6 g/kWh for anthracite and 4.8 g/kWh for imported coal. • CASES B.1 and B.2 160 Policy case study When the units dispatch is done minimising social costs -direct costs and externalities-, the units firstly operated will be those with low social cost. Those units should be obviously the cleaner ones. Strategies B.1 and B.2 have been analysed following this objective. To quantify the external costs derived to domestic coal constraints imposed to the system, strategy B.1 is done with these constraints and B.2 is done without them. Looking at Error! Unknown switch argument. and considering that the total direct variable costs of both strategies are similar, we can obtain the external costs of the Spanish coal constraints imposed to the power system dispatch: 963,707 million ptas. The total social costs in case B.1 is 1,535,290 million ptas. and in B.2 572,972 being the coal consumption 30,785 kt and 4,038 kt respectively. This is basically the cause of the SO2 emissions reduction in strategy B.2: from 1,058 to 166 thousand t. • CASES C.1 and C.2 Strategies C.1 and C.2 have been analysed minimising also the social costs but this time adding to the direct costs only the 30% of the externalities. Considering this level of externalities, the external costs of the Spanish coal constraints imposed to the power system dispatch are in this case 286,043 million ptas. As a general conclusion, it has to be remarked the significant change in the electricity dispatching system when externalities are introduced. Lignites, due to their high sulphur content, disappear from the system, and the contribution of national coal is greatly reduced. However, here it has to be noted that this result, that is, the minimization of social costs, is only achieved if other constraints are removed from the dispatching model. Of these, the major one is the compulsory consumption of national coal. As may be seen, if this constraint is not removed, the change induced by the introduction of externalities into the system is the elimination of imported coal, which is indeed cleaner than national coal. This change is very small indeed, since the contribution of imported coal is quite small. In fact, it may be said that, if the constraint is not removed, the introduction of externalities into the dispatching system produces hardly any change, as may be observed from cases A.1, B.1, and C.1. When it is eliminated, external costs are greatly reduced, even if their minimisation is not an objective. This may be seen in case A.2., where the constraint is removed but externalities are not included. In this case, external costs are reduced, simply by the change from national coal and lignites to imported coal. However, eliminating the constraint by itself does not minimize social costs, externalities have to be included, as shown in cases B.2 and C.2. In these cases, national coal is completely eliminated, being substituted by fuel-oil and gas. Nevertheless, it has to be reminded that here only environmental externalities have been assessed. National coal and lignites have also several advantages, such as their contribution to energy security, and their support of local economies in mining regions. Therefore, in order to 161 ExternE National Implementation. Spain decide whether the constraint mentioned above is justified or not, a full analysis of these aspects should be carried out. 162 10. CONCLUSIONS The major conclusion of this study may be that, in spite of the uncertainties underlying the analysis, a large set of externalities for electricity generation has been calculated, and therefore, a first attempt towards the integration of environmental aspects into energy policy may be carried out, taking into account all the limitations which will be explained later. And it has to be noted that, although they are considered sub-totals, that is, that there are still a number of impacts to be quantified in monetary terms, the figures obtained are already significant, specially if global warming damages are taken into account. Moreover, it has to be reminded that the technologies assessed for individual fuel cycles are state-of-the-art technologies, equipped with environmental devices. In the case of the coal fuel cycle, for example, even though the power plant is equipped with ESP, FGD, or low NOx burners, the externalities estimated are almost as large as the private generation cost. If the full range for global warming damages is considered, damages are almost thrice the private costs. If older technologies are considered, such as those assessed for the aggregation exercise, the externality per kWh rises to quite high values, up to 4 times the private cost, in the case of high-sulphur lignites (even if global warming damages are not included). Therefore, it might be concluded that the external costs of some fuel cycles are high enough to affect energy policy decisions. However, here it has to be reminded that the methodology has still a large number of uncertainties. These uncertainties create some difficulties for using the results directly for policy-making. Several aspects should be improved, mainly the estimation of global warming damages. Atmospheric dispersion models, which, at least for the Spanish case, should account for the complex topographic conditions are also a controversial aspect. An important issue which should also be studied is the relationship between atmospheric pollution and chronic mortality. Regarding global warming damages, its range of estimated results is so broad that it dominates the results for fossil fuel cycles. This produces that, when the higher estimate for global warming damages is considered, fossil fuels cannot compete with nuclear, or renewables. Therefore, the high estimates for global warming benefit to a large extent these energy sources. Considering that chronic mortality is, by large, the major externality, besides from global warming damages, of fossil fuel cycles, the fact that there is only one exposure-response 163 ExternE National Implementation. Spain function for its estimation, and that this function comes from the US, without being checked in Europe, adds a lot of uncertainty to the final results. The valuation of human life is also a significant factor affecting the results, as it determines the human health externality, which, as said before, is the major one. Controversy still exists around this issue, and, in spite of the modifications introduced in the valuation of life by the Core Project, the values assigned are still contested outside the project. All these uncertainties affect the individual fuel cycles examined. For the aggregation of results to the whole electricity sector, more problems arise, such as the transferability of results from one site to another, or the accounting of effects for which there is a threshold. Indeed, differences in the damages per t of pollutant emitted between different sites are quite large, so the direct transfer of results from one site to another is not reasonable. In the case of nuclear or hydro, this transferability is even more difficult. Hence, it is recommended to use the results provided by this report only as background information. This background information might be very useful for establishing economic incentives, such as environmental taxes, or subsidies for renewable energies, or for energy planning measures. However, as said before, results should not be used directly, until the methodology is refined. For what results may be used directly, though, is for planning processes where the quantitative results are not so relevant. This is the case, for example, of the optimization of plant site selection, or for choosing among different energy alternatives. As may be seen in this report, it is clear that gas is a much cleaner energy source than coal, and that the mix of biomass with lignites results in less environmental damages than those of lignites alone. As might be expected, renewable energies such as wind are the cleanest energy sources. Another possible use of these results is the analysis of the costs and benefits of the implementation of environmentally friendly technologies. Results show that fluidized-bed combustion, or FGD, reduce pollutant emissions, and so reduce environmental damages. As far as the more certain damages avoided compensate the costs of the implementation, the installation of these devices will be justified. Although further research is required to refine the methodology, and thus, to produce more precise results, removing the existing uncertainties, this report is the first comprehensive attempt to estimate the externalities of electricity generation in Spain. Hence, it is believed that it will contribute to a large extent to the integration of environmental aspects into energy policy. 164 11. REFERENCES AED (1991) Evaluación económica de los beneficios derivables de la prevención y reducción de la degradación ambiental en la Comunidad Autónoma de Andalucía. Análisis Estadístico de Datos, S.A. Madrid, 1991. AP-42 (1995). Compilation of air pollutant emission factors. US Environmental Protection Agency. Azqueta, D. (1994). Valoración económica de la calidad ambiental. McGraw-Hill, 1994. Coll, J.M. (1992). Evaluación de los efectos producidos por la contaminación atmosférica causada por las centrales térmicas de generación de electricidad en la agricultura de su entorno. Tesis Doctoral. Dpto. de Economía Agraria.Universidad Politécnica de Valencia. CTRSUM. Centre Integral de Valorizatció de Residus del Maresme. Consorci pel Tractament de Residus Solids Urbans del Maresme. Dirección General de Tráfico (1995). Anuario Estadístico General 1995. EC/OECD/IEA (1995) Proceedings of the First EC/OECD/IEA Workshop on Energy Externalities: The External Costs of Energy. Brussels 30-31 January 1995. ENCASUR (1992). Memoria 1992. Empresa Nacional Carbonífera del Sur, S.A. ENDESA. Personal communication European Commission, DGXII, Science, Research and Development, JOULE (1995a). Externalities of Fuel Cycles ‘ExternE’ Project. Report 1, Summary. European Commission, DGXII, Science, Research and Development, JOULE (1995b). Externalities of Fuel Cycles ‘ExternE’ Project. Report 2, Methodology. European Commission, DGXII, Science, Research and Development, JOULE (1995c). Externalities of Fuel Cycles ‘ExternE’ Project. Report 3, Coal and Lignite Fuel Cycles. European Commission, DGXII, Science, Research and Development, JOULE (1995d). Externalities of Fuel Cycles ‘ExternE’ Project. Report 4, Oil and Gas Fuel Cycles. European Commission, DGXII, Science, Research and Development, JOULE (1995e). Externalities of Fuel Cycles ‘ExternE’ Project. Report 5, Nuclear Fuel Cycle. 165 ExternE National Implementation. Spain European Commission, DGXII, Science, Research and Development, JOULE (1995f). Externalities of Fuel Cycles ‘ExternE’ Project. Report 6, Wind and Hydro Fuel Cycles. European Commission, DGXII, Science, Research and Development, JOULE (1998a). ‘ExternE’ Project. Methodology Report, 2nd Edition. To be published. European Commission, DGXII, Science, Research and Development, JOULE (1998b). ‘ExternE’ Project. Analysis of Global Warming Externalities. To be published. European Commission, DGXII, Science, Research and Development, JOULE (1998c). ‘ExternE’ Project. Summary of the ExternE National Implementation Project. To be published. FPNNE (1995). Espacios naturales protegidos del Estado español. Federación de Parques Naturales y Nacionales de Europa. Fritsche, U., Leuchtner, J., Matthes, F.C., Rausch, L. and Simon, K.-H. (1992). GesamtEmissions-Model Intergrierter Systeme (GEMIS) Version 2.0. OKO-Institutt Buro Darmstadt, Bunsenstr. 14, D-6100 Darmstadt. An English version is distributed under the name TEMIS. Generalitat de Catalunya (1992). Cens de Població 1991. Institut d’Estadistica de Catalunya. Heijungs, R., et al (1992). Environmental Life Cycle Assessment of Products. Part 1. Guide. Part 2. Backgrounds. Centre of Environmental Science, Garenmarkt 1, P.O. Box 9518, 2300 RA Leiden, the Netherlands. Hohmeyer, O, (1988). Social Costs of Energy Consumption. Springer Verlag, Berlin. IEC (1990). Estadística Comarcal i Municipal. Institut d’Estadistica de Catalunya. Generalitat de Catalunya. INE (1996). Censo de Población 1991. ISET (1995) Externalities of photo-voltaics. In the ExternE National Implementation Report for Germany, written by IER (Universitat Stuttgart) and others. To be published in 1998. Junta de Castilla y León (1988). Análisis del medio físico. Soria. EPYPSA, Valladolid. Lago, C. et al (1993). Study of environmental aspects of wind parks in Spain. Proceedings ECWEC’93 Travemünde. Linares, P., J. Leal, R.M. Sáez (1996). Assessment of the externalities of biomass energy for electricity production. Informes Técnicos Ciemat nº804. Septiembre 1996. Linares, P., J. Montes, R.M. Sáez (1995). Evaluación de los costes externos de los ciclos del carbón y de la energía eólica en España. Informes Técnicos Ciemat nº768. Septiembre 1995. 166 References Lindfors, L.-G., Christiansen, K., Hoffman, L., Virtanen, Y., Juntilla, V., Leskinen, A., Hanssen, O.-J., Ronning, A., Ekvall, T. and Finnveden, G. (1995). LCA-NORDIC Technical Report No. 10: Impact Assessment. TemaNord 1995:503, Nordic Council of Ministers, Copenhagen. Ministerio de Agricultura (1993). Censo Agrario. Ministerio de Trabajo y Seguridad Social (1994). Estadística de Accidentes de Trabajo 1994. OECD (1992). Proceedings of an OECD Workshop on Life Cycle Analysis of Energy Systems. Paris, 21-22 May, 1992. Schmid, J., H.P. Klein, G. Hagedorn (1990). News from Eurowin. How renewable is wind energy ?. Windirections Winter 1990-91, pp 24-29. SEDIGAS (1991). Manual del gas y sus aplicaciones. 167