World Applied Sciences Journal 22 (9): 1334-1343, 2013 ISSN 1818-4952 © IDOSI Publications, 2013 DOI: 10.5829/idosi.wasj.2013.22.09.316 Selection of Models for Calculation of Incident Solar Radiation on Tilted Surfaces Abdul Qayoom Jakhrani, 2Saleem Raza Samo, 3 Andrew Ragai Henry Rigit and 4Shakeel Ahmed Kamboh 1 Faculty of Engineering, Universiti Malaysia Sarawak, 94300, Kota Samarahan, Sarawak, Malaysia 2 Department of Energy and Environment Engineering, Quaid-e-Awam University of Engineering, Science and Technology (QUEST), Nawabshah, Sindh, Pakistan 3 Department of Mechanical and Manufacturing Engineering, Faculty of Engineering, Universiti Malaysia Sarawak, 94300, Kota Samarahan, Sarawak, Malaysia 4 Department of Mathematics and Computational Science, Faculty of Computer Science and Information Technology, Universiti Malaysia Sarawak, 94300, Kota Samarahan, Sarawak, Malaysia. 1 Abstract: The purpose of this study was to examine the performance of tilted surface solar radiation models for selection of estimated amount of solar radiation. The model results were evaluated on the basis of one-sample statistical test. The statistical test includes four measures namely the mean, standard deviation, standard error mean and the range of 95% confidence interval of the difference. The analysis revealed that yearly average solar radiation data recorded by local meteorological stations were 7% less than satellite-derived data acquired from National Aeronautics and Space Administration. The estimated results of tilted surface radiation models showed that Reindl et al., model executed maximum variation and Klucher model displayed minimum error as per one-sample statistical test among the examined models. It was concluded from the study that Klucher model could be preferred for the estimation of tilted surface radiations. Key words: Mathematical models One-sample statistical test INTRODUCTION Energy is an essential element for the economic and social development of any country. It improves the quality of life, whether it is in the form of oil, gasoline, nuclear or from any renewable energy [1]. Among all renewable energy resources, solar energy is one of the most rapidly growing green energy technologies of the world. These sources are environment and nature friendly, does not produce emissions that contribute greenhouse effect or destroy ecological balance [2, 3]. Solar systems are practicable form of power supply where the grid connections are not available and the extension of power transmission lines is expensive [4-8]. However, their proper design and sizing is necessary for uninterrupted power supply. This ultimately requires long term recorded data of solar radiation. Unfortunately, such data is not readily available in most of the developing countries. Corresponding Author: Solar radiation Tilted surface models Thus, the systems could not consistently supply the designed power due to malfunctioning of its components [9-12]. Solar Radiation Data: In general, solar radiation data is described in terms of total solar radiation, which is the combination of beam plus diffuse and ground reflected radiation. Most of the total radiation is measured on horizontal surfaces by local meteorological stations. However, it can also be observed through satellites [13]. The local meteorological measurements provide more perfect estimates, because it holds the site specific characteristics. Moreover, the solar conversion systems are tilted towards the sun in order to maximize the amount of solar radiation incident on photovoltaic module surface. The availability of recorded data on tilted surfaces is very rare. Therefore, the tilted surface radiation in most cases is calculated from horizontal surface Abdul Qayoom Jakhrani, Department of Energy and Environment Engineering, Quaid-e-Awam University of Engineering, Science and Technology (QUEST), Nawabshah, Sindh, Pakistan. Tel: +92-244-9370362, Fax: +92-244-9370362. 1334 World Appl. Sci. J., 22 (9): 1334-1343, 2013 radiation by means of empirical models [14]. Although, a large number of empirical models exist but they are validated using the data collected from the meteorological stations of United States, Canada, Australia and Northern European countries. Furthermore, the existing models were formulated based on different procedures using different elements [15]. It is prime need to evaluate the models and verify their suitability according to the local environmental conditions before application for the design and development of solar systems. The purpose of this study is to evaluate the performance of tilted surface solar radiation models based on the one-sample statistical test results. The models which perform well and provide less variation could be recommended for the estimation of available solar radiation of the area. Solar Radiation on Tilted Surfaces: Tilted surface solar radiation (HT ) is composed of three parts such as beam radiation ( H T ,b ) , ground reflected radiation (H T ,r ) and diffuse radiation ( H T , d ) . It is defined as: H T = H T ,b + H T , r + H T , d (1) Beam radiation ( H b ) is that part of total solar radiation, which is received from the sun without atmospheric scattering [16]. It is often referred as direct solar radiation. The amount of beam radiation on a tilted surface ( ) from the horizontal surface and rotated from north to south axis is computed by multiplying the direct horizontal irradiation ( H b ) by the geometric factor ( Rb ) . H T ,b = H b Rb (2) The value of H b can be obtained by subtraction of diffused radiation ( H d ) from total radiation ( H ) , after computing the value of H d through empirical models [17]. The geometric factor ( Rb ) is the ratio of beam radiation on the tilted surface to that on horizontal surface ( R b = cos / cos z ) . The most favorable solar azimuth angle ( ) for collectors or PV modules is usually 0° in the northern hemisphere or 180° in the southern hemisphere [18]. Therefore, the value of R b is computed by: Rb = cos( − )cos cos + sin ( − )sin cos cos cos + sin sin (3) The part of total solar radiation that is reflected by the surface of the earth and by any other surface intercepting object such as trees, terrain or buildings onto a surface exposed to the sky is termed as ground reflected radiation or albedo [19]. A tilted surface at slope from the horizontal has a view factor (Fc–g) to the ground and Fc–g = (1 – cos )/2. Assuming that the reflection of the beam and diffuse radiation is falling on the ground is isotropic and that the surroundings have a diffuse for the total solar radiation. reflectance of g Subsequently, the reflected radiation (H T ,r ) from the surroundings on the surface will be: HT ,r = H 1 − cos 2 g (4) If the measuring station is located on a rooftop with a low reflectance, then the reflected part of solar radiation is very much lower than the direct and diffuse components. Because of that situation, an isotropic model can be used for the calculation of reflected component on the inclined planes. The diffuse radiation ( H d ) is that fraction of total solar radiation which is received from the sun when its direction has been changed by atmospheric scattering [20]. The direction of diffuse radiation is highly variable and difficult to determine [21]. It is distributed over the whole sky dome, which is a function of conditions of cloudiness and atmospheric clearness, which are extremely unpredictable. The diffuse radiation fraction is also the combination of three components, namely isotropic diffuse, circumsolar diffuse and horizon brightening [17]. The isotropic diffuse radiation component is received evenly from the entire sky dome. The circumsolar diffuse part received from onward dispersion of solar radiation and concentrated in the section of the sky around the sun [22]. The horizon brightening component is concentrated near the horizon and it is most obvious in the clear skies [23]. If the diffuse radiation is considered to be only isotropic, then it is the ratio of diffuse on the tilted surface with a slope ( ) to that on the horizontal surface, denoted by R d . Since, R d= (1 + cos ) / 2 and H d is computed from the empirical equations [17]. The mathematical models used to determine the amount of tilted surface solar radiation ( H T ) can be classified into two types of models namely isotropic and anisotropic. Isotropic sky models assume that the intensity of diffuse sky radiation is uniform over the sky dome [24]. Hottel and Woertz [25] were the first who assumed that the combination of diffuse and ground reflected radiation is isotropic. That, the sum of diffuse from the sky and ground reflected radiation on the tilted surface is the same regardless of orientation. Thus, the total radiation on the tilted surface is the sum of beam 1335 World Appl. Sci. J., 22 (9): 1334-1343, 2013 radiation and the diffuse radiation. The improvement of Hottel and Woertz [25] model was given by Liu and Jordan [26]. The radiation on tilted surface was considered to be composed of three parts such as beam, reflected from ground and diffuse. The circumsolar and horizon brightening components of diffuse radiation were taken as zero. Liu and Jordan [26] assumed that the diffuse radiation is isotropic only. Jimenz and Castro [27] proposed that the beam radiation on a horizontal surface is 80% of the global solar radiation, whereas, the remaining 20% is contributed by the diffuse radiation. Koronakis [28] modified the assumption of isotropic sky diffuse and suggested that the slope ( = 90°) provides 66.7% of the total sky dome as a diffuse solar radiation. Tian et al. [21] considered the diffuse radiation received on tilted surface with view a factor of Fc–s = (1 – /180). Badescu [29] presented a model for the solar diffuse radiation on a tilted surface with a view factor of Fc–s = (3 + cos 2 )/4. The anisotropic sky models were developed by various researchers to incorporate the contribution of circumsolar and horizon brightening components in isotropic sky models. Almost, all researchers took the same value of the beam and reflected part of radiation as recommended by Liu and Jordan [26] and ammended only the part of diffuse radiation. Temps and Coulson [30] presented a clear sky model and incorporated two factors in Liu and Jordan [26] model. One factor 1 + sin3( /2) includes for horizon brightening and other factor (1 + cos2 sin3 z) to account the effects of circumsolar radiation. Klucher [31] modified and refined the Temps and Coulson [30] model to stimulate the conditions present during partly cloudy skies by incorporating a modulating function (F ) to determine the magnitude of clear sky effects. It reduces both Liu and Jordan [26] and Temps and Coulson [30] model under extreme values of F . If F = 0, it reduces to the isotropic sky model as given by Liu and Jordan [26] and if F = 1, it reduces to the clear sky model as given by Temps and Coulson [30]. Hay and Davies [32] suggested that the diffuse radiation from the sky is composed of an isotropic and circumsolar component only, whereas, the horizon brightening component was not taken into account. The anisotropy index (Ai) was used to quantify the diffuse radiation. Some part of diffuse radiation was treated as circumsolar and the remaining part of the diffuse radiation was assumed to be isotropic. Reindl et al. [33, 34] took into account the horizon brightening factor in addition to isotropic diffuse and circumsolar radiation. Reindl et al. [33, 34] used same definition of Ai as given by Hay and Davies [32]. However, a modulating function f = H b / H was added to the Temps and Coulson [30] model as a correction term of sin3 ( / 2). In contrary to other anisotropic sky models, Duffie and Beckman [17] proposed a combination of Hay and Davies [32], Klucher [31] and Reindl et al. [33, 34] model, which is referred as HDKR model. The description of selected tilted surface models is shown in Table 1. Previous Studies on Different Model Performance: Several researchers examined the performance of isotropic and anisotropic sky models and recommended the model for estimation of tilted surface radiation based on their own findings. Kudish and Ianetz [35] examined three empirical models, one isotropic and two anisotropic for computing total solar radiation on a tilted surface in Israel and concluded that the results of all three models varied with time, season and location. Muneer and Kambezidis [36] evaluated various models to check their ability of accurate predictions for the availability of incident irradiation on tilted surfaces with measured values in Athens, Greece. Bilbao et al. [37] investigated the performance of five models for the estimation of hourly diffuse solar radiation on tilted surface using horizontal total radiation data from six meteorological stations in Spain. Nijmeh and Mamlook [38] tested Liu and Jordan [26] and Hay and Davies [32] model by using the data of horizontal global and diffuse radiation to predict the global radiation on tilted surface and concluded that the performance of models depends on the seasons of the year. Diez-Mediavilla et al. [39] compared the performance of ten different empirical models to estimate the amount of diffuse radiation incident on south facing surface tilted at the angle of 40° on both hourly and daily basis near Valladolid, Spain. Loutzenhiser et al. [40] discovered that the most models underestimated the results in the afternoon hours in the month of October. Majority of models overestimated the results for most hours during the day in the months of March and April. However, their study was limited to a specific location and time period. Barakat [41] observed that the Hay and Davies [32] model performed well for calculation of tilted surface radiations. Harrison and Coombes [42] presented his findings on the basis of root mean square error that isotropic sky models generally underestimate, while the Klucher [31] model overestimates the diffuse irradiance and the Hay and Davies [32] model gives the best overall performance in all sky conditions. De Miguel et al. [43] recommended Liu and Jordan [26] model for calculation of hourly diffuse from daily diffuse values. Kamali et al. [44] 1336 World Appl. Sci. J., 22 (9): 1334-1343, 2013 Table 1: Description of selected models for estimation of incident solar radiation on tilted surface Author (s) Description of Models Liu and Jordan (1963) 1 − cos HT = H b Rb + H g 2 Klucher (1979) 1 − cos 1 + cos ' 3 H T =+ H b Rb H g + Hd × 1 + F sin × 2 2 2 ' 2 3 1 + F cos sin z ( 1 + cos +Hd 2 ) 2 F=' 1 − H d H ( Reindl et al., (1990a and 1990b) ) H T =( H b + H d Ai ) Rb + H 1 − cos 2 g 1 + cos + H d (1 − Ai ) 2 1 + Hb sin 3 H 2 Ai (= H bn H on ) ( H b H o ) = HDKR Model (2006) ( ) H T =H b + H d Ai Rb + H examined eight different models to estimate solar irradiation on tilted surfaces using daily measured solar irradiation data in Iran and recommended Reindl et al. [33, 34] model for computing solar incident irradiation on tilted surfaces. Notton et al. [45] examined 94 different combinations of models for calculation of hourly solar radiation on tilted surface and recommended Klucher [31] model for the estimation of diffuse solar irradiation followed by Iqbal [46] and Hay and Davies [32] models. Noorian et al. [47] evaluated twelve different models and concluded that south facing tilted surfaces demonstrated good agreement with measured and modeled data whereas, all model produced large errors for west facing tilted surface. Noorian et al. [47] discovered that Skartveit and Olseth [48], Hay and Davies [32] and Reindl et al. [33, 34] models displayed the most accurate predictions for south facing tilted surface. Evseev and Kudish [49] assessed eleven models to predict the global solar radiation incident on tilted surface at Beer Sheva, Israel and concluded that the models cannot be graded or ranked on the basis of statistical and graphical analysis, since they exhibited different trends. They found that Muneer and Kambezidis [36] model demonstrated best results for cloudy sky conditions. Pandey and Katiyar [50] reported that Klucher [31] model shows comparatively good estimations as compared with experimental values at low inclination angles because it incorporates the effect of cloudy sky conditions. It is revealed from the review that various models and combination of models are available for estimation of tilted surface radiations. The abundant of such models indicated the complexity of the task for converting diffuse 1 − cos +Hd 2 g 1 + cos (1 − Ai ) 2 3 1 + sin 2 solar radiation measured on a horizontal surface to that on a tilted surface [43]. The reported models were found to be mutually consistent. However, the approach of researchers was different due to incorporation of different influential factors in their models. Researchers recommended different models and combination of models according to their findings. Therefore, the selection of a single model or group of models needs to be examined and validated as per local geographical and environmental conditions before application for the design and development of solar systems. MATERIALS AND METHODS A total of four tilted surface radiation model results were investigated, one isotropic model proposed by Liu and Jordan [26] and three anisotropic models given by HDKR [17], Klucher [31] and Reindl et al. [33, 34] as shown in Table 1. The predicted model results were totally based on the input data of sources concerned. Two input data sets were used for the examination of model perofrmance. One set of data were obtained from local meteorological office based at Kuching, Sarawak by Malaysian Meteorological Services (MMS) and other set was acquired from National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA). These both data sets were used for comparison purpose and appropriate selection of required models. For this study, five years recorded data from 2005 to 2009 of total solar radiation and ten years data from 2000 to 2009 for other environmental parameters were obtained from MMS. The long term recorded data of solar radiation was not available at the respective department (i.e. at MMS Regional Office Kuching, 1337 World Appl. Sci. J., 22 (9): 1334-1343, 2013 Sarawak). Therefore, twenty three years satellite-derived data from July 1983 to June 2006 was also acquired from NASA for comparison purpose. The amount of beam and diffuse components of solar radiation on the horizontal surface was computed from monthly mean total radiation data using Erbs et al. [51] model. The monthly mean daily extraterrestrial solar radiation on the horizontal surface was computed by taking the values of a single day (close to monthly mean values) for every month of the year by using days suggested by Kalogirou [52] which were representing the individual month. The proposed days were; 17th of January and July, 16 th of February, March and August, 15th of April, May, September and October, 14th of November, 11th of June and 10th of December. The monthly average daily extraterrestrial solar radiation on the horizontal surface was determined using empirical relationships. The detailed description of fundamental equations can be found in Kalogirou [52] and Duffie and Beckman [17]. Models can be selected either on the basis of data availability of the desired location or applying intuitive methods based on experience or by means of statistical analysis of model performance. Since, the long term time series data was not available in the area. The statistical analysis was preferred as compared to intuitive methods. Therefore, for this study, the models were selected on the basis of one-sample statistical test, which includes four measures namely mean, standard deviation, standard error mean (SEM) and range of 95% confidence interval. These measures provide the consistency and variation in the model estimated results. RESULTS AND DISCUSSIONS Comparison of MMS and NASA Data: The available amount of total solar radiation at Kuching, Sarawak with MMS and NASA data sources are shown in Figure 1 [53]. It was observed that, both data sources reported lowest average daily solar radiation availability in the month of January with 12.80 MJ/m2 and 14.26 MJ/m2 and the second worst month was observed as December with 13.42 MJ/m2 and 14.98 MJ/m2 respectively. The MMS data source indicates the maximum radiation in the month of August with 17.21 MJ/m2, whereas, the NASA sources reported the month of April with 17.96 MJ/m2. The monthly average daily total radiation on yearly basis by MMS data was 15.44 MJ/m2 and NASA was 16.63 MJ/m2. It was found that MMS data sources showed 7% less amount of total solar radiation with more variation on monthly average yearly basis. The variation was due to the short term radiation record. NASA data indicates more amount of global solar radiation with less deviation in the monthly average values. This was due to the fact that satellites could not incorporate the local geographical and environmental characteristics and merely gives overall picture of radiation behavior in large scale. It can be observed from the figure that MMS data showed less availability of solar radiation in the month of June as compared to NASA data. This could be due to one year bad weather conditions confronts in the month of June which make the average of MMS data much lower than that of NASA. Since, the NASA data was not affected due to its long term radiation record. It was discovered from the analysis that both data sources could be equally important but preference might be given to local data source with long term record. However, such record does not exist at present in Kuching. Comparison of Results and Selection of Model: The comparison of results revealed that Liu and Jordan [26] and HDKR [17] models demonstrated almost same results by the use of MMS data. However, HDKR [17] model executes slightly more values in NASA data than Liu and Jordan [26] model as shown in Figure 2. This was due to addition of the circumsolar component in diffuse radiation fraction in HDKR [17] model. Reindl et al. [33, 34] model displayed highest estimated values among all models. It may be consideration of all diffuse components individually in their model and incorporation of modulating factor, which was multiplied by the term used for horizon brightening. Klucher [31] model demonstrated lower estimated results than Reindl et al. [33, 34] model and slightly higher than Liu and Jordan [26] and HDKR [17] models. It was due to the incorporation of a modulating factor (F ). Statistically, it was discovered that Liu and Jordan [26] model executed the higher values than anisotropic models in good weather conditions and lower results in bad weather conditions. However, all examined models established around 1.5% of mean difference in predicted values among each other. It was found from the analysis, that all tilted surface models predicted more incident solar energy irradiation on tilted surface (HT) than on horizontal surface radiation (H) due to the optimization of slope. The slope was fixed at 10° due south to make the incidence angle close to the beam radiation in worst months of year. It was observed that Liu and Jordan [26] and Reindl et al. [33, 34] models predicted less amount of solar radiation in good weather conditions and overall Klucher [31] model performs well on yearly average basis. 1338 World Appl. Sci. J., 22 (9): 1334-1343, 2013 Fig. 1: Measured values of total solar radiation on horizontal surface at Kuching Fig. 2: Estimated values of incident solar radiation on tilted surface by different models The results of one-sample statistical test of tilted surface models are graphically illustrated in Figures 3 and 4. It was found that the higher mean, standard deviation (SD), standard error mean (SEM) and range of 95% confidence interval was given by Reindl et al. [33, 34] model with the use of MMS data. The less error was executed by Klucher [31] model. Liu and Jordan [26] and HDKR [17] models demonstrated similar behavior with less error than Reindl et al. [33, 34] model and more than Klucher [31] model. However, the mean of Klucher [31] model was found to be more than Liu and Jordan [26] and HDKR [17] models but its error was less than examined models. The evaluation of NASA data reveals that higher SD, SEM and range was given by Liu and Jordan [26] model than Reindl et al. [33, 34] model. However, Reindl et al. [33, 34] model executed higher error by the use of MMS data. Klucher [31] model again executed lowest error among all models, whereas, HDKR [17] model displayed slightly more error than Klucher [31] model and less error than Reindl et al. [33, 34] model. It was found that Reindl et al. [33, 34] model predicted the highest estimated values of about 15.4MJ/m2 and Liu and Jordan [26] model demonstrated the lowest values 15.2 MJ/m2. Moreover, Liu and Jordan [26] model performs well in cloudy weather conditions due to low estimation of solar radiation. The results of one-sample statistical analysis revealed that Reindl et al. [33, 34] and Liu and Jordan [26] model executed higher SD of 1.40 and 1.38, SEM of 0.40 and 0.39 respectively. The less SEM of 0.38 was executed by Klucher [31] model. Therefore Klucher [31] model could be chosen for the estimation of tilted surface radiation. 1339 World Appl. Sci. J., 22 (9): 1334-1343, 2013 Fig. 3: Mean and SD of incident solar radiation on tilted surface by different models Fig. 4: SEM and Range of incident solar radiation on tilted surface by different models CONCLUSIONS In this study, the solar radiation data and the estimated results of selected tilted surface models were compared and recommended for selection of solar radiation estimation using one-sample statistical test. It was revealed that the recorded yearly average solar radiation data of MMS sources were 7% less than NASA data sources. The causes of more variation in MMS data were due to its short term record. Since, the local meteorological data took into account the effect of site specific and geographical features of the location as compared to NASA. Therefore, the local long term timeseries data could be preferred if available. It was found that Reindl et al. [33, 34] model predicted the highest estimated values and Liu and Jordan [26] model demonstrated the lowest. 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