Modeling strategies within the
ACQWA Project
Martin Beniston
Head of the Geneva Environment Insitute
The University of Geneva, Switzerland
© 2009 Martin Beniston
Waterloo, March 17, 2009
Cryosphere
Ecosystems
© 2009 Martin Beniston
Hydrology
Hydrology
Energy
© 2009 Martin Beniston
Cryosphere
Ecosystems
Catastrophes
Hydrology
Cryosphdre
Ecosystems
Catastrophes
ENVIRONMENT
Energy
SOCIETY
Infrastructure
Tourism
© 2009 Martin Beniston
Agriculture
Modeling strategy:
Inputs
Climate: observed
Climate:GCM+RCM
Remote-sensing
Socio-economic
© 2009 Martin Beniston
Storage and
distribution
Modeling strategy:
Physically-based models
Downscaling from GCMs
High-resolution RCMs
Glacier models
Snow models
Land-use models
Distributed hydrological
models
Biosphere models
Extremes events
© 2009 Martin Beniston
Modeling strategy:
Impacts
Biosphere/forests
Aquatic ecosystems
Assessment of conflicts
of interest: implications
for governance
Tourism
Adaptation
strategies
Energy
Policy response:
influence on impacts?
Agriculture
Land-use change
Natural hazards
© 2009 Martin Beniston
RCMs
© 2009 Martin Beniston
Altitude
[m]
Cascade nesting
60 km
© 2009 Martin Beniston
Altitude
[m]
Cascade nesting
5 km
60 km
© 2009 Martin Beniston
Altitude
[m]
Cascade nesting
5 km
60 km
© 2009 Martin Beniston
1 km
Simulation of a winter windstorm
(December 1999; CRCM2 model)
S. Goyette, University of Geneva
© 2009 Martin Beniston
Goyette et al., 2003: J. Geophys. Res.
Detail of windstorm over southern Sweden
m/s
S. Goyette, University of Geneva
© 2009 Martin Beniston
Nilsson et al., 2007: Global and Planetary Change
Extremes
© 2009 Martin Beniston
Changes in summer precipitation (june-july-august)
(Differences in % between 2071-2100 and 1961-1990)
(HIRHAM RCM; A-2 Scenario)
Precipitation >
50 mm / day
% change
-40 -30 -20 -10 0 +10 +20 +30 +40
© 2009 Martin Beniston
Christensen and Christensen, Nature, 2003
Seasonal precipitation
1961-1990
2071-2100 (B2)
Changes in extreme
precipitation in the Alps
(HIRHAM RCM)
2071-2100 (A2)
Beniston, 2006, Geophys. Res. Letters
70
108 events
Number of evets
beyond 99% quantile
60
127 events
50
141 events
40
30
20
10
0
Winter
© 2009 Martin Beniston
Spring
Summer
Autumn
Consequences for floods
© 2009 Martin Beniston
Snow
© 2009 Martin Beniston
Possible shifts in snow duration for a
projected climatic change in the Alps
10
Snowpack
duration
[days]
9 Säntis:
8
2071-2080
7
2081-2090
6
Säntis:
Future climate
Arosa:
Current climate
3
2
-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
Mean winter temperatures [°C]
© 2009 Martin Beniston
1
2
2091-2100
2071-2080
4
2081-2090
Arosa:
Future climate
5
1
-8
350
325
300
275
250
225
200
175
150
125
100
75
50
25
2091-2100
3
Beniston et al., Theor. And Appl. Clim., 2003
Mean winter precipitation
[mm/day]
Current climate
Shifts in snow volume according
to altitude
4500
Current climate, moist winters
Altitude [m]
4000
Current climate, dry winters
3500
+4°C, moist
3000
+4°C, dry
2500
2000
1500
1000
500
0
© 2009 Martin Beniston
10
20
30
40
Total volume [109 m3]
50
60
Ice
© 2009 Martin Beniston
Simulation of the retreat of the
Aletsch Glacier, 1950-2005
© 2009 Martin Beniston
Vegetation
© 2009 Martin Beniston
Vegetation changes, Glacier National Park,
Montana, USA
© 2009 Martin Beniston
© 2009 Martin Beniston
© 2009 Martin Beniston
© 2009 Martin Beniston
© 2009 Martin Beniston
© 2009 Martin Beniston
Hydrology
© 2009 Martin Beniston
Modeling strategies for water


Distributed catchment response to climate
scenarios
Subgrid variability of the response of rivers
 the
local/point scales: very detailed modelling of
processes that are characterized by significant
small scale dynamics and nonetheless have a
considerable impact
on processes at a larger scales
 on socio-economic aspects

© 2009 Martin Beniston
Hydrological models




TOPKAPI model (ETH-Zurich)
FEST model (Politecnico di Milano)
CHyM model (ICTP, Trieste, and l’Aquila, Italy)
Model characteristics:






raster based (function of DEM availability and catchment scale,
approx. range 50 to 500 m grid size)
physically based/oriented
continuous in time with hourly resolution
explicit in the soil/and component
internally consistent
They produce distributed output scenarios for:





snow and ice accumulation/melting
interception
evaporation/evapotranspiration
infiltration/soil moisture/groundwater storage
streamflow
© 2009 Martin Beniston
Links between
partners and
Work Packages
© 2009 Martin Beniston
www.acqwa.ch
Martin.Beniston@unige.ch
© 2009 Martin Beniston
Waterloo, March 17, 2009