Canadian Excellence
Changing Northern Landscapes:
New Challenges and Partnerships
for NWT Water Resources
5th Annual IP3 Meeting and Workshop, 4-5 October, 2010, Yellowknife.
Acknowledgements:
M. Hayashi, L. Chasmer, N. Wright, B.
Christensen, A. MacLymont, T. Veness, A. Verma,
R. Bemrose, Y. Zhang, C. Hpkinson, and many
others.
Environment and Natural Resources (NWT), INAC,
LKFN, JMFN, Water Survey of Canada, CFCAS,
NSERC.
Air Temperature Change, 1970 - 2004:
From: IPCC, Climate Change 2007: Synthesis Report
Draining
lakes,
ponds and
wetlands.
From: Smith et al., Science, 2005.
Thaw Slumps:
Photo: D. Downing/GNWT.
From: NWT Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation Report.
From: Lantz & Kokelj, GRL, 2008.
Vegetation Change on the Tundra:
1950
2002
From: Hinzman et al., Climatic Change, 2005.
How shrubs influence water resources:
From: Sturm et al., Nature, 2005.
Changes to the active layer:
Arctic tundra
Alpine tundra
Permafrost Cover age
Peatlands
Continuous (> 90%)
No permafrost
Changes to Subsurface drainage:
Arctic tundra
depth below ground surface (m)
Alpine tundra
0
logK(z) =
logKbtm + (logKtop – logKbtm )
n
[1 + (z/ztrn) ]
high flow
0.1
frost tab
le
0.2
0.3
Measured
0.4
Boreal peatlands
0.5
0.1
1
10
102
103
Hydraulic conductivity m/d
low flow
Changes to FT topography:
Thaw
(cm)
41 - 50
31 - 40
21 - 30
11 - 20
1 - 10
Changing River Flow in the NWT:
Winter base-flow
Annual mean streamflow
From: St. Jacques & Sauchyn, GRL, 2009.
System-wide response:
From: Rowland et al., EOS, 2010.
Human Activities:
Partners in Problem-Solving:
Canadian Excellence
Funding Status
- funding secured for >60% of the project
– CFI (100% of request)
– Laurier
– Equipment suppliers
CFI International Peer Review
“The Principal Users are a good mix of experienced senior researchers
and promising early and mid-career faculty. This is an impressive
research group of highly accomplished scientists who have garnered
awards for research excellence, are productive, and whose
publications are well cited. The group has broad and interdisciplinary
expertise in all the requisite domains of the proposed project, including
climatology, hydrology, ecology, geochemistry, physiology, toxicology,
and modelling.”
Canadian
Foundation for
Innovation
(secured)
CFI – Operating
& Maintenance
(secured)
$1,300,000
$2,000,000
University
$1,000,000
& Equipment
Suppliers
$2,000,000
(secured )
The
The Challenge
Challenge
Total Project
$6,300,000
Northern Science for Northerners: addressing uncertainty to reduce risk
Canadian Excellence
Canadian Excellence
Framework for GNWT-Laurier Partnership:
WLU-GNWT Liason
& Secretariat
- Data Manager
- Outreach & Education Coordinator
- Webmaster
- CFI equipment purchase & management
Users' Advisory
Committee
Science Committee
Landscape
Change
Cumulative
Effects
Threshold
T heme
L eader
&
project
investigators
Theme
Leader
&
project
investigators
Theme
Leader
&
project
investigators
partner organisations, other collaborators
Landscape changes in the southern margin of
permafrost:
Permafrost Cover:
Continuous (> 90%)
Discontinuous (50-90%)
Discontinuous (10-50%)
Isolated patches (< 10%)
Scotty Creek
No permafrost
Natural Resources Canada
(http://atlas.nrcan.gc.ca/site/
english/maps/environment/land)
Mackenzie
Basin
Prediction of Permafrost Thaw for 1990-2090:
Computer Model
• Large scale (50 km grid).
• Each grid = uniform condition.
Reality (Scotty Creek)
pink: complete thawing
Model by Dr. Zhang at Canadian Centre for
lake
Remote Sensing , Ottawa
peat plateau
isolated bog
connected bog
channel fen
1 km
Basin Water Cycle
unsaturated zone
active layer
water table
open water
}
?
frost table
permafrost
organic
?
(saturated)
mineral
Shifting Edges:
Change Observed on the Ground:
Aug., 2002
Aug., 2008
well
well
Seasonal thaw depth on a plateau:
GS = ground surface
relative elevation (m)
1
FT = frost table
2006 GS
0.5
0.5 m
0
0.9 m
-0.5
2006 FT
-1
-1.5
0
10
20
30
distance from fen (m)
40
Horizontal and vertical permafrost thaw:
Channel Fen
floating peat
Flat Bog
active layer
Permafrost
table (2006)
open water
permafrost
peat
mineral sediment
2006 permafrost width (33.0 m)
1.0
Relative elevation (m)
2006
0.5
2009
0.0
2006
-0.5
2009
-1.0
2009 permafrost width (24.2 m)
-1.5
0
10
20
Horizontal distance (m)
30
40
Changes to permafrost & seasonal thaw:
.6 m
1
4
=
th
wi d 9 9
t
s
r o in 19
maf
t
r
e
ns ec
P
a
r
t
t
en
m
re
su
a
e
M
Channel
Fen
Permafrost
Plateau
Permafrost width (m)
1.0
40
0.9
0.8
30
0.7
0.6
20
1999
2001
2003
2005
2007
0.5
2009
Average end-of-summer
thaw depth (m)
Flat Bog
-4.1 o C
o
mean annual daily
mean annual daily
{
-1
-2.3o C
{
0
-3.2o C
{
o
annual
precip.
(mm) meanmean
total precipita
tion (mm)
annual
air temp.
air temperature
C ( C)
Air Photo Archive 1947 – 2000:
1947
1971-2000
R2= 0.29
-2
-3
-4
-5
-6
-7
700
600
2000
R2= 0.0824
500
400
300
200
100
0
1890
1910
1930
1950
1970
1990
2010
Questions for Research and Management:
• How will the permafrost distribution change?
• How fast will the change occur?
• What site factors control permafrost thaw?
• Is human disturbance contributing to permafrost thaw?
• How might water resources be affected?
• Could other resources be affected too?
→ Scientific basis for adaptation to climate change
Permafrost Distribution 1947 – 2000:
Peat Plateau Area
1947: 70%
1970: 54%
1977: 53%
2000: 49%
2008: 43%
1 km2
2000
2008
Where is permafrost
thaw occurring?
Above: Historical change in permafrost
plateau area from 1947 to present using
aerial photography and satellite imagery
Land cover characteristics at Scotty
Creek determined from 3-D
airborne LiDAR data.
Warm colours represent plateaus of
varying elevations and canopy
characteristics
Cool colours represent low-lying
areas: fens and bogs.
Low-lying areas with short
vegetation with adjacent plateaus
are likely to undergo most rapid
thaw in the future: Evidence from
historical change.
Edge properties
are important.
Red boxes: large
changes, many edge
Green boxes: minimal
change, dense canopy
high elevation plateaus
Characterising permafrost edges with ERI
ERI2
ERI1
ERI3
elev. (m)
271
267
ERI Line 1: Peat Plateau Transect
depression
20 m
0
2
30
40
50
60
4
0m
0m
5
fen
20
FT
plateau
40
permafrost
10
15
20
resistivity (Ω
Ω m)
60
bog
80
unfrozen peat
clay
102
103
104
ERI Line 2: Cross-Bog Transect
• Permafrost under the isolated bog has
been “broken through”.
• Possibility of groundwater recharge.
• It may become connected to larger bogs.
fen
0m
0m
isolated bog
20
bog
60
40
80
5
10
15
20
inversion artefact?
resistivity (Ω
Ω m)
102
103
104
Away from the edges:
Site factors
controlling
seasonal thaw.
Thaw depth
VWC
F r o s t T a b le (c m )
(%)
50
40
30
20
10
10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90
Volumetric Water content (%)
(FT topography)
(cm)
Incoming Shortwave Radiation (Wm-2)
Tree canopy controls thaw energy input:
600
500
400
No canopy (bog)
Sparse canopy
Dense canopy
300
200
100
0
5-Sep
6-Sep
7-Sep
Lichen,
Labrador Tea
Moss,
Labrador Tea
bandsaw
blade
clean
undisturbed
break on
bottom
Soil Mesocosm Experiments:
1
4
5
2
6
3
7
Factors controlling permafrost thaw:
peat plateau
1. Thinning of canopy.
→ Increase in solar
energy input.
1
2. Local thawing.
→ Wet areas thaw faster
and deeper.
3. Wet condition prevents trees
from growing back.
→ New bog forms.
Unsaturated, thawed peat
Saturated, thawed peat
Saturated, frozen peat
2
preferential thaw
new bog
3
Linear Wetlands in Scotty Creek Watershed
• Seismic exploration
since the 1960s.
• How do they affect the
drainage pattern?
• Effects of warming?
5 km
ERI Line 3: Winter Road (∼
∼45 yrs old)
forest
0m
0m
clearing
20
5 permafrost
10
15
20
forest
60
40
80
permafrost
partial thawing?
resistivity (Ω
Ω m)
102
103
104
Does Permafrost thaw influence streamflow?
lake
peat plateau
isolated bog
connected bog
channel fen
1 km
Basin Runoff Related to Cover Type
180
Scotty
160
Birch
Blackstone
Jean-Marie
Average annual 1997-2000 runoff
(mm)
Four River Basins
(150-1300 km2)
140
- Scotty Creek
- Birch River
- Blackstone River
- Jean-Marie River
R2 = 0.87
120
100
2
4
6
8
10
12
% of basin covered by flat bogs
180
160
Different percentage of
land-cover types
- bogs (storage)
- fens (drainage)
140
R2 = 0.93
120
100
15
20
25
30
35
% of basin covered by channel fens
Annual Total Basin Runoff near Ft. Simpson:
precipitation (mm)
annual runoff (mm)
Runoff = Total river flow / Drainage area
400
300
200
Birch
Jean-Marie
Blackstone
Scotty
100
0
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
Ft. Simpson precip.
600
400
200
0
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
Approach & on-going work:
The key to better prediction is improved process understanding.
Link to other research themes - e.g. impact of permafrost thaw on
water quality, wildlife, fisheries etc.
Adaptation work – contribute to mitigation strategy development
within the GNWT strategy/policy framework.
• Identify the key factors controlling the rates and patterns of
preferential thaw leading to permafrost degradation,
•
Develop a new model that simulates the permafrost response to
climate warming and human disturbance,
•
Develop conceptual & mathematical models of key hydrological
processes, and
•
Couple the hydrological and permafrost models to predict the
spatial distribution of permafrost, and the river flow regime under
scenarios of climate warming and human disturbance.