A Summary of IP3 Research in the
Subarctic Canadian Shield
IP3 Northern Water Research Workshop
Yellowknife, NWT
C. Spence
October 5, 2010
Acknowledgements
• NHRC - Newell Hedstrom,
•
•
•
•
•
Raoul Granger, Kelly Best
U of S – Xiu Juan Guan, Ross
Phillips, Amanda Burke, Jason
Hosler, Kirby Ebel
INAC - Bob Reid, Meg
McCluskie, Shawne Kokelj,
Steve Kokelj
WSC - Dale Ross, Murray
Jones, Dave Helfrick, Jamison
Romano, Dwayne Ofukany,
Laurie McGregor, Colin
McCann, Brian Yurris
GSC – Mike Demuth
AGRG – Chris Hopkinson
DRAFT – Page 2 – November 22, 2010
Headwaters
bedrock
wetland
forested
4
6
1
1 upper bedrock
2 lower bedrock
3 lower forest
4 upper forest
5 lower wetland
6 upper wetland
5
2
3
Spence and Woo, 2006
Woo and Mielko, 2007
DRAFT – Page 3 – November 22, 2010
Baker Creek
• The Baker Creek Research
•
•
•
•
DRAFT – Page 4 – November 22, 2010
Basin drains runoff from ~155
km2 (~170 km2 at the mouth).
It is located in the Great Slave
High Boreal Ecoregion and
Slave Structural Province of
the Precambrian Canadian
Shield.
Land cover is dominated by
exposed bedrock (40% of
basin area) with substantial
portions of wetlands (16%) and
coniferous forest (21%).
There are 349 lakes in the
basin that occupy 23% of the
area.
Permafrost is discontinuous;
absent from bedrock, well
drained areas and water
courses.
HRU scale
mPe =
a
b
mPe = 0.0004
mPe = 0.09
Q gw
Q gs + Q gp
c
mPe = 1.1
Guan et al, 2010
DRAFT – Page 5 – November 22, 2010
HRU scale
Lake
690
s
os
M
Spence et al, 2010
k
ee
Cr
Climate tower
Piezometers and wells
Ablation line
Soil moisture, temperature
Streamflow
W9
W7
Vital
Lake
N
50
0
m
100
DRAFT – Page 6 – November 22, 2010
Lake dominated watercourses
Ri + Qi
E
S2
S1
P
L2
A
L1
Q = f ( S ) = f ( L, A)
if
dQ
dS
dL
=0
= 0 and
=0 then
dt
dt
dt
when
P + Ri
>
E + (Qo − Qi ) ,
dS
>0
dt
Ro+Qo
Qo
DRAFT – Page 7 – November 22, 2010
Lake dominated watercourses
DRAFT – Page 8 – November 22, 2010
Spence, 2006
Upscaling to the catchment
• Prior to IP3 the influence of
small scale storage processes
on catchment scale runoff
response had not been fully
investigated.
• The objective of much of the
IP3 efforts in Baker Creek was
to determine how small scale
processes upscaled to the
catchment, and evaluate their
significance and potential
influence on runoff generation.
DRAFT – Page 9 – November 22, 2010
Storage measurements
DRAFT – Page 10 – November 22, 2010
Storage dynamics over space
DRAFT – Page 11 – November 22, 2010
Catchment scale
DRAFT – Page 12 – November 22, 2010
Catchment scale
DRAFT – Page 13 – November 22, 2010
Characteristic S-Q catchment curves
S = 3.28 ⋅ 106 ⋅ ln(Q) + 1.9 ⋅ 107
S = 2 ⋅ 106 exp 2.7285Q
DRAFT – Page 14 – November 22, 2010
adapted from Spence et al, 2010
Remote sensing of contributing areas
August, 2009
May, 2009
DRAFT – Page 15 – November 22, 2010
Remote sensing of contributing areas
DRAFT – Page 16 – November 22, 2010
Connectivity
CE ,O
Ec
=
Ep
DRAFT – Page 17 – November 22, 2010
Connectivity
Phillips et al, 2010
DRAFT – Page 18 – November 22, 2010
Prediction - CRHM
6
5
modelled
observed
snowmelt and rainfall
40
35
3
Streamflow @ Lower Martin (m /s)
s
45
4
30
25
3
20
2
15
10
1
5
0
15-Apr-08
15-May-08
14-Jun-08
14-Jul-08
DRAFT – Page 19 – November 22, 2010
13-Aug-08
12-Sep-08
0
12-Oct-08
Rainfall and snowmelt (mm)
on_hru.shp
s
Changing hydrologic regime
3
Percentage of annual basin yield
May – June
Sept. – February
1972 to 1982 1983 to 1995 1996 to 2009
70%
80%
50%
12%
6%
39%
3
Mean daily Streamflow (m /s)
2.5
1983 to 1995
1996 to 2009
1972 to 1982
2
1.5
1
0.5
0
1-Jan
1-Mar
30-Apr– Page 20 –29-Jun
28-Aug
DRAFT
November 22, 2010
27-Oct
26-Dec
Regional scale changes
180
20
160
140
Mean daily streamflow (m3/s)
Mean daily streamflow (m /s)
18
16
1983 to 1995
1996 to 2009
Snare
3
1983 to 1995
1996 to 2009
14
120
100
80
60
40
12
20
0
1-Jan
10
1-Mar
30-Apr
29-Jun
28-Aug
8
6
4
2
0
1-Jan
Cameron
1-Mar
30-Apr
29-Jun
28-Aug
DRAFT – Page 21 – November 22, 2010
27-Oct
26-Dec
27-Oct
26-Dec
Ecosystem implications
DRAFT – Page 22 – November 22, 2010
Summary
• New parameterization:
1) the “Guan” number incorporates the relative influence of
topology and advective heat on frost table depth and, in turn,
hillslope storage capacity.
2) there are characteristic catchment storage-discharge curves.
3) connectivity is related to streamflow and controls the runoff ratio
• Model testing continues with representation of response
•
units reflective of observed hydrological behaviour.
This knowledge could be important as changing
hydrological regimes in the region test decision making
ability.
DRAFT – Page 23 – November 22, 2010
Fall runoff events
200
Seasonal rainfall
Threshold ~ 110 mm
180
160
Event rainfall
R/P = 0.51
Rainfall (mm)
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Runoff (mm)
140
160
DRAFT – Page 24 – November 22, 2010
180
200
Precipitation trends - Annual
450
Z statistic = 1.27
P value = 0.2
400
Annual rainfall (mm)
350
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
1970
1975
1980
1985
199022, 2010 1995
DRAFT – Page
25 – November
2000
2005
2010
Precipitation trends - September
120
Z statistic = 2.03
P value = 0.04
Monthly rainfall (mm)
100
80
60
40
20
0
1970
1975
1980 DRAFT –1985
1990
1995
Page 26 – November
22, 2010
2000
2005
2010
Precipitation trends - October
100
Z statistic = -2.31
P value = 0.02
90
Monthly rainfall (mm)
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
1970
1975
1980 DRAFT –1985
1990
1995
Page 27 – November
22, 2010
2000
2005
2010
Fraction of rain
1
Fraction of rain in precipitation
0.9
Sept.
0.8
0.7
0.6
0.5
0.4
Oct.
0.3
0.2
0.1
0
1980
1985
DRAFT
– Page 28 – November
1990
1995 22, 2010
2000
2005
2010
Frequency of exceedance
200
180
Seasonal rainfall (mm)
160
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
1980
1985
DRAFT
1990– Page 29 – November
1995 22, 2010
2000
2005
2010