Transforming Agriculture:
Why, How, Who , When
International Workshop of the RLC
Food security and sustainable agriculture:
The future of Smallholder Farmers?
Bonn May 30 June 4, 2015
Dr. Hans R. Herren
President Millennium Institute
Founder & Chairman of Biovision Foundation
hh@millennium-institute.org
Overview
1. Transforming agriculture and the Food
System: from brown to green: why
(today’s situation)
2. How (what do we know already):
challenges and solutions for the needed
transformation of global agriculture and
food systems
3. Who and when
IAASTD – Report
Co-Chairs: Hans R Herren &
Judy Whakungu
www.globalagriculture.org
“Business as usual
is not an option”
The global agriculture & food situation
• 800 million undernourished – 1.5 billion obese – 300 million
diabetes type 2 cases, etc. => health problem
• The industrial/conventional food system uses 10 kcal to
produce 1 => energy problem
• The industrial/conventional food system is a major part of
the climate change problem
• Soil degradation, water shortages, biodiversity loss underlie
food insecurity => natural resource problem
• Industrial/conventional agriculture has emptied the rural
areas instead of providing quality jobs, access to land =>
social problem
….a food system that is not sustainable
David Tilman et al. Science 2001
What is and what is not sustainable in
agriculture and food systems?
Brown
Green
The main problems (too much external / non
renewable inputs)
David Tilman et al. Science 2001
…replacing nature with business – a bad idea
UNEP 2012
The main problem (too much damages)
The main problems (too much GHG)
Grain Unctad 2011
The main problems (too much production, too
much waste)
Understanding the consequences:
CC and water / temperature stresses
2080
-50%
0%
-15% +15% +35%
The main solutions
• A fundamental shift in Agricultural
Knowledge Science and Technology
and => agri-food system policies
(UNSG), => institutions => capacity
development => investments
(UNCTAD)
• Paradigm change: transition to
sustainable / ecological agriculture
addressing the multi-functionality
and resilience needs of small-scale
and family farmers (ecointensification, vs smart)
• Need to use a systemic and holistic
approach / National multistakeholder
assessments (IAASTD)
13
The 3 +1 dimensions of sustainable development
Social
livable
equitable
Economic
Governance
Sustainable
& Resilient
viable
Environment
Low productivity
High productivity
The main solutions:
1. Paradigm shift / all inclusive
Un-sustainable
Sustainable
The main solution:
2. More diversity in the plate, true costing
Encouraging a wider
genetic base in
agriculture…trees,
fruits, grains,
vegetables, lost
crops, animals
for nutrition and
health, cultural
diversity, incomes,
pest control,
resilience to climate
change
Barilla, 2011
The main solutions:
3. Closing the yield gap….but only the right way!
The main solutions:
3: Improving soil fauna and flora, ie, organic
matter
Increase soil structure/ air spaces / SOM-SOC
• Turn the nitrogen in the air into nitrate and
ammonium (air is 78% N)
• Soil carbon dioxide increases plant growth
• SOM helps plant and microbial growth through
growth stimulating compounds
• Helps root growth, by making it easy for roots to
travel through the soil
• Improves growth through easy access to deep
nutrients and water
After Andre Leu 2014
The main solutions:
3: Improving soil fauna and flora, ie, organic
matter
1 % SOM = 160,000 litres (common level)
5 % SOM = 800,000 litres (levels pre farming)
Per ha (to 30 cm)
After Andre Leu 2014 Bhutan
The main solutions: it’s the soil stupid!
Organic
Conventional
In 1995 –drought year
The main solutions:
3: SOM
Organic
Conventional
In 1995 –drought year
The main solutions:
3: SOM
Organic
Conventional
Organic
Conventional
In 1995 –drought year
Picture: FiBL DOK Trials
The main solutions:
3: pests, weeds and soil fertility
The main solutions:
3. Healthy animals (on farm, not in factories)
The main solutions:
3. Agronomic practices SRI
The main solutions:
3. Biological / natural pest and disease control
The main solutions:
3. promotion of pollinators
The main solutions:
3. GMOs?...for what exactly? (cause vs symptom)
The main solutions:
3. genetic diversity, quo vadis?
David Quist, 2010 pers com
The main solutions:
3. genetic diversity, quo vadis?
The main solutions:
4. Smallholder farmers
FAO, 2014
The main solutions:
4. Smallholder vs industrial farmers (who does
better?)
FAO, 2014
….low external vs high external inputs (1)
MI, 2013
The main Solutions:
5. R&D & Edu
• Improve, expand extension services and capacity bldg
• Strengthen Institutions
• Emphasize local solutions; Women and Youth
Is such a transition possible and how?
A systems model for the transition: scenarios from the
UNEP GER ag chapter 2011
Global investments across sectors (2% of GDP, Stern report);
0.16% of GDP (141 Bn $/year) invested in agriculture for:
- Pre harvest losses (training activities and effective pest
management with bio-products, IPM)
- Ag management practices (cover transition costs from till
to no till, organic, agroecological agriculture, training, access
to small scale mechanization and irrigation)
- R&D (research in soil biology and agronomy, crop
improvement (orphan crops), appropriate mechanization,
irrigation, and more)
- Food processing (better storage and processing in rural
areas, efficient processing, marketing, less waste)
… the numbers: we can win-win-win by 2050
Investing 0.2% of total GDP ($141 Billion) / year
Indicator
Unit
Baseline
Green
BAU
Agricultural
production
Bn US$/year
1’921
2’852
2’559
Crops
Bn US$/year
629
996
913
Employment
M people
1’075
1’703
1’656
Soil quality
Dmnl
0.92
1.03
0.73
Water use
Km3 / year
3‘389
3‘207
4‘878
Land
Bn ha
1.2
1.26
1.31
Deforestation
M ha/ year
16
7
15
Calories for
consumption
Kcal/person/d
ay
2‘081
2‘524
2‘476
Source: UNEP Green Economy Report (2011)
… the numbers: we can win-win-win by 2050
31
30
15
12
10
1
8
8
2 4
2
0
0
%
-1
-5
-9
-15
-13
-20
-18
-26
-30
-45
Real GDP
Employment
% Poverty
2015
2030
Nutrition
2050
Water stress
-44
Footprint/
biocapacity
Changing course in global agriculture:
«The Future We Want» (Rio+20 Declaration) recognized
• the fact that «a significant portion of the world’s poor live in
rural areas»
• the role that agriculture plays in development
• the importance and utility of a set of Sustainable Development
Goals (SDGs);
• and reaffirmed the necessity to promote, enhance and support
more sustainable agriculture
§115 „We reaffirm the important work and inclusive nature of
the Committee on World Food Security, including through its
role in facilitating country-initiated assessments on sustainable
food production and food security“
The main solutions: System’s approach to
problem analysis and solving
policy variables
Land
Loss
equity policies
& Flooding
gender
policies
land tenure
Food Production
quality
food aid
Health Catastrophes
Land Loss
monetary
rural
O
poverty
Production
S
S
R
Toxic
environmental resources
Residue
s
Acres in
Agriculture
O
O
B
S
temperature
monetary
rural
poverty
Soil Nutrient
Productioin
B
employment
saving
environmental resources s
climate stability
urban-rural
remittances
food
price
atmosphere co2
Plant
Production
solar radiation
access to social
services
education
education
investment in
economic
factors
agriculture
knowledge
production
loss
Plant
Consumption
economic resources
crop and animal food
production
gender
parity
soil organic
matter
Plant
Human Use
agricultural
machinery
processing
capacity
storage capacity
intermediate
consumption
irrigation
expenditure for
external input
external input
water
pesticides
chemical /
biological
Droughts
fertilizers
synthetic /
organic
input prices
expenditure for
environmental factors
S
net import
S
energy
external seeds
and feeds
S
crop area
S
Plant Calories for
Meat Production
soil organic
matter
soil nutrients
biodiversity
S
infrastructure
S
S
Water
Demand
Fresh Water
S
Migration
Pursuit of 1st World
Food Mix
storage capacity
Methane
Production
S
S
external input
S
pesticides
chemical /
biological
Exposure to a Higher
Standard of Living
processing
capacity
S
intermediate
consumption
water
forest area
agricultural
machinery
gender
parity
Global
Temperature
S
economic resources
Irrigation
plant and
animal health
factors
r&d
resources
S
S
Variation
in Rainfall
crop
and animal
food
production
Pattern
Human
Populatio
S
n
investment in
Migration
economic
agriculture
Calories knowledge
for
infrastructure
biodiversity
forest area
S
r&d
resources
net import
soil nutrients
Soil
Salinization
pasture
area
investment in
social factors
health
food
demand
plant and
animal health
solar radiation
farmer's
organization
employment
production
loss
O
S
health
O
food use
access to market /
market information
population
crop area
O
access to
credit
S
social resources
Plant
Calories
food availability
pasture area
atmosphere co2
private expenditure
food and
nutrition
security
resources
distribution
Human
Deaths in
investment
social factors
Population
Density
public
expenditure
governance
urbanization
food
demand
temperature
Soil Nutient
Consumption
land tenure
quality
food aid
food access
income
distribution
S
food availability
farmer's
organization
policy variables
equity policies
income
Soil
climate stability
Capacity
Human
Population
Human
social resources S
Births
market information
population
S
access to
credit
food use
Calories per
access
Capita to market /
urbanization
gender
policies
O
O
access
to social
services
S
Fertilizer
Demand
private expenditure
S
Calorie
Gap
Habitat
food
Conversion
price
Famines
food and
nutrition
security
resources
S
distribution
urban-rural
remittances
income
S
saving
O
S
O
Petroleum Use for
Fertilizer
R
Life Sustaining
Calories per Capita
food access
income
Energy Sector
distribution
Biofuels
public
expenditure
governance
fertilizers
Global
synthetic /
organic
Warming
Meat
Production
external seeds
and feeds
Meat
Calories
irrigation
S
expenditure for
external input
Meat
Consumption
energy
input prices
expenditure for
environmental factors
Changing course of global agriculture
international
Sustainable
Development
Goals
(SDGs)
Committee on
World Food Security
(CFS)
national
Evaluation des
Nahrungssystems durch
systemdynamische
Modelle
Politische Massnahmen
Implementing the CCGA
Multi-stakeholder Assessments (KEN/SEN/ETH)
….new problems
Thank you!
The time to act is now….and
please in the right direction.
We have the evidence, the
solutions and the means……
Thank you
www.millennium-institute.org
hh@.millennium-institute.org