The Economics of Land Degradation and the
Costs of Action versus Inaction
Nicolas Gerber, Center for Development Research (ZEF),
University of Bonn, Germany
UNCCD 2nd Scientific Conference, Bonn, April 10th 2013
Joint work by ZEF and the International Food Policy Research
Institute (IFPRI), 2010-11 and 2012-14, funded by the German
Federal Ministry for Economic Cooperation and Development.
First phase (2010-11) - Main
outputs
• State of the art in global
assessments of land
degradation
• Methodology toward a total
economic valuation of land
degradation
• Case studies: Uzbekistan,
Niger, Peru, India, Kenya
(agricultural production –
action cheaper than inaction)
• Partnership concept for a
global ELD assessment.
Condensed and up-dated version:
www.zef.de/fileadmin/webfiles/downl
oads/zef_wp/wp109.pdf
Relationship between poverty (IMR)
and land degradation
Source: von Braun et al. 2013
Variable
NDVI
Resolution
8km x 8km
Infant
Sub-district
Mortality Rate
Baseline
1982–84
End line
2003–06
2005
Source of data
Global Land Cover Facility (www.landcover.org), Tucker, Pinzon, and
Brown 2004); NOAA AVHRR NDVI data from GIMMS
Relationship between change in vegetation
cover and change in population density
Variable
NDVI
Resolution
8km x 8km
Baseline
1982–84
End line
2003–06
Source of data
Global Land Cover Facility (www.landcover.org), Tucker, Pinzon,
and Brown 2004); NOAA AVHRR NDVI data from GIMMS
Population
density
0.5o x 0.5o
1990
2005
CIESIN (2010)
Source: Nkonya et al. 2011
Relationship between change in vegetation
cover & change in gov’t effectiveness
Variable
NDVI
Resolution
8km x 8km
Baseline
1982–84
End line
2003–06
Source of data
Global Land Cover Facility (www.landcover.org), Tucker, Pinzon, and
Brown 2004); NOAA AVHRR NDVI data from GIMMS
Government
effectiveness
Country
1996–98
2007–09
Worldwide Governance Indicators:
http://info.worldbank.org/governance/wgi/index.asp
Source: Nkonya et al. 2011
2nd Phase Research Project:
The Economics of Land Degradation,
2012-2014, www.zef.de/eld.html
• ZEF and IFPRI engage with other scientific
partners in open partnership
• Operationalize the methodology outlined in
Nkonya et al. 2011 – methods paper out for
discussion
http://www.zef.de/fileadmin/media/news/2135_eld_methods07042013.pdf
• Selected case studies and a standard
methodology to form a template for future
ELD assessments.
Sampling Framework for Case Studies
Three steps:
1. Clustering based on key socio-economic and
institutional underlying factors (Nkonya et al.
2011)
2. Validation of clusters using additional socioeconomic and biophysical variables
3. Case studies selected from each cluster,
based i) regional representativeness, ii)
availability of data required for the ELD
assessment
Source: Nkonya et al (2013)
Clustering and validation results
Source: Nkonya et al (2013)
Clustering Results
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
Source: Nkonya et al (2013)
Empirical Research Framework
• Core ELD research methods: standard research methods to be
applied in all case studies to fulfill the minimum
methodological requirements for globally comparable and
rigorous ELD assessment,
• Desirable ELD approaches: methods seeking to address the
key challenges specific in each context and to complement,
cross-validate and triangulate, in general, test the robustness
of the results obtained from the core research.
• Sophisticated ELD methods for expanding the research
frontiers in ELD research. They aim to build and expand on the
cutting-edge of interdisciplinary land degradation research.
Source: Nkonya et al (2013)
Examples of three categories of ELD
research approaches
Source: Nkonya et al (2013)
Key variables and datasets required
Source: Nkonya et al (2013)
Key variables and datasets required
Source: Nkonya et al (2013)
Thank you!
www.zef.de/eld.html