Marmot Creek and the Saskatchewan River
Basin project – a large-scale observatory for
new water science
Howard Wheater, Canada Excellence www.usask.ca/water
Research Chair
Global water challenges
Pakistan 2010
Aral Sea
Texas 2012
New York 2012
Lake Winnipeg/Red River 2007
www.usask.ca/water
The future for water?
Increased
demand
Environmental
change


Estimated 6 billion in water scarce areas by 2050
Increasing severity of floods and droughts
www.usask.ca/water
The science challenges
To understand, diagnose and predict Earth system change
at multiple scales:
• climate, including its hydro-meteorological extremes
• key land surface systems, including their response to
climate variability and climate change
• effects of anthropogenic land use change on water
quantity and quality and aquatic ecosystems
• societal controls on water management, including policy
options and economic instruments
We need a new paradigm in interdisciplinary research, and
new approaches to scientific infrastructure
www.usask.ca/water
Saskatchewan River Basin
Area 340,000 km2
-Drains from
continental divide
in Alberta, through
Saskatchewan to
Manitoba
www.usask.ca/water
-
Saskatchewan River Basin





One of the most extreme and variable climates in the
world
Home to 80% of Canada’s agricultural production and
strategically-important natural resources
With a growing population and rapidly developing
economy
Embodies key science challenges of global significance
Embodies key management challenges of global
relevance
www.usask.ca/water
A critical trans-boundary resource for the
prairie provinces of Canada:
o
o
o
o
80% of Saskatchewan River water comes from
the Rocky Mountains
40-50% of basin does not normally contribute to
river flows
< 1% of flow originates in Saskatchewan, but
70% of population uses river water
86% of consumption of South Saskatchewan
River goes to irrigation
www.usask.ca/water
Management issues include:
•
the South Saskatchewan river has reached limits
for use in southern Alberta
•
Climate change and land management are
changing the land and its water in complex
ways, affecting river flows and prairie hydrology
•
Pollution is changing water quality
•
Water governance in the prairie provinces is
complex and fragmented
www.usask.ca/water
Prairie Drought of 1999-2004
Most Expensive Natural Disaster in Canadian
History

$5.8 billion decline in
GDP 2001-2002

$3.6 billion drop in
agricultural production,
2001-2002

41,000 jobs lost

BC, Alberta forest fires

Saskatchewan dust
storms
www.usask.ca/water
Floods
Saskatoon Summer Precipitation 1900-2010
700
Precipitation [mm]
600
Summer (April-Sept)
500
400
300
200
100
0
1900
1920
1940
1960
1980
Hydrologic year (Oct 1-Sept 30)
2000
2020
Glaciers are Changing
•
Glacier retreat and volume loss
has been widespread in
Western Canada
•
Some glaciers have retreated up
to one to two km since early
1950s
•
Total glacier covered area has
declined by 5 – 15% over the
period 1951 – 2001
•
The relative loss of ice volume is
likely greater than this amount
Temperature Trends at Elevation
Marmot Creek, 1962-Present
Winters are warmer by 3 to 4 oC since the 1960s
Harder & Pomeroy
Water resources
Annual flow volume (Dam3)
South Saskatchewan River - natural and actual
flow leaving Alberta
18000000
Natural
Actual
16000000
14000000
12000000
10000000
8000000
6000000
4000000
2000000
0
1910
1920
1930
1940
1950
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
Year
Natural flow: 12% decline over 90 years;
Actual flow: 15% decline over 30 years
www.usask.ca/water
Water Quality – the South SK River Basin
Total Phosphorous Concentration (1973-2009)
S. Saskatchewan River near Clarkboro Ferry
Concentration (mg/L)
1
Bow River above Lake Louise
Red Deer River upstream HWY 2 Bridge
1
0.8
Concentration (mg/L)
0.6
0.4
0.2
0
May-73
May-83
May-93
May-03
May-13
Concentration (mg/l)
0.8
0.6
0.4
0
May-73
Date (Month-Year)
May-83
May-93
May-03
May-13
Date (Month-Year)
Bow River above Canmore
1
0.6
0.4
0.2
May-03
May-13
Saskatoon
0.2
0
May-73
May-83
May-93
May-03
May-13
1
1
Concentration (mg/L)
Concentration (mg/L))
0.4
South Saskatchewan River near Outlook
Red Deer River near Morrin Bridge
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
0
May-73
Date (Month-Year)
May-83
May-93
May-03
May-13
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
0
May-73
0
May-73
Date (Month-Year)
May-83
May-93
May-03
May-13
L. Diefenbaker
0.6
Red Deer River near Blindloss AB
0.4
1
Concentration (mg/L)
Bow River below Carseland Dam
1
May-93
May-03
May-13
Date (Month-Year)
Calgary
Bow River at Cluny
0.8
1
0.6
Concentration (mg/L)
May-83
0.4
0.2
0
May-73
May-83
May-93
May-03
May-13
0.8
0.6
South Saskatchewan River near Leader
0.4
1
0.2
0
May-73
0.6
May-83
May-93
May-03
May-13
0.4
Date (Month-Year)
0.2
0
May-73
Date (Month-Year)
0.8
Concentration (mg/L)
0.2
Concentration (mg/L)
Concentration (mg/L)
May-03
Date (Month-Year)
1
May-83
May-93
May-03
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
0
May-73
May-13
Bow River near Ronalane Bridge
0.6
Olman River above Lethbridge
0.4
0.4
0.2
May-83
May-93
May-03
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
0
May-73
May-13
Date (Month-Year)
May-83
May-93
May-03
May-13
Date (Month-Year)
0.6
0.4
0.2
0
May-73
May-83
May-93
May-03
Date (Month-Year)
Lethbridge
South Saskatchewan River above Medicine Hat
Olman River at HWY 36 N of Taber
May-13
1
1
Concentration (mg/L)
May-13
0.6
0.8
Concentration (mg/L)
Date (Month-Year)
May-03
Concentration (mg/L)
May-93
0.8
0
May-73
1
0.2
1
Concentration (mg/L)
Concentration (mg/L)
1
0.8
May-93
South Saskatchewan River at HWY 41
1
Oldman River near Brocket
May-83
Date (Month-Year)
Date (Month-Year)
May-83
May-93
Date (Month-Year)
0.8
0
May-73
May-83
May-13
Bow River at Cochrane
Concentration (mg/L)
May-93
Date (Month-Year)
1
Red Deer
0.6
0
May-73
May-83
Red Deer River at Nevis Bridge
0.8
Concentration (mg/L)
0.8
0
May-73
AB Surface Water Quality
Guideline (0.05 mg/l)
0.2
Concentration (mg/L)
Concentration (mg/L)
1
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
0
May-73
May-83
May-93
Date (Month-Year)
May-03
May-13
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
0
May-73
May-83
May-93
Date (Month-Year)
May-03
May-13
Medicine Hat
May-03
May-13
The SaskRB as a GEWEX RHP
•
•
•
•
•
Lack of current N American RHP
Successful legacy of MAGS
Ending of Canadian federal programs – DRI, IP3
New needs and opportunities
Potential linkage to NAWP
SaskRB Project - science objectives
To improve monitoring, understanding and modelling of:
• the region's variable climate, including its hydrometeorological extremes
• key land surface systems, including Rocky Mountains,
Boreal Forest and Prairies, and their response to
climate variability and climate change
• effects, on water quantity and quality and aquatic
ecosystems, of anthropogenic land use change
• societal controls on water management, integrating
humans and their activities into water science
www.usask.ca/water
This will deliver:



new hydrological models and land surface schemes,
including human impacts on land and water
management
assessment of ecosystem vulnerability to climate
variability and change and the associated feedbacks to
land-atmosphere exchanges of energy and water
new water resource system models for the SRB for
analysis of vulnerabilities and exploring scenarios of
environmental change and economic development
www.usask.ca/water
Research Sites
www.usask.ca/water
Rocky Mountain Research Basins
- Marmot Creek
Boreal Forest
Research Sites
BERMS/BOREAS
Prairie Research Sites
St Denis
Kenaston
Smith Creek
Lake Diefenbaker/Swift Current Creek
Algal bloom Sept 24 2011
Socio-hydrology
- understanding and managing complex
human-natural systems
Group mind-mapping
exercise.
Stakeholder workshop,
Canmore , Alberta,
March 2012
Hydrological/LSS Modelling
Point
scale
Detailed
physically-based
point and field
scale models
Field
scale
HRU/Basin
scale
Cold Regions
Hydrological
Model
Grid/Regional
scale
CLASS/MESH
Observed freeze-thaw
0℃
GCM/Data comparison

The Boreal Ecosystem Research and
Monitoring Sites (BERMS) in
Saskatchewan

Three operating towers - sites
dominated by Old Aspen (OA), Old
Black Spruce (OBS) and Old Jack
Pine (OJP)
CGCM3 gridded simulated variables

Comparable Data Structures –
Pressure/Radiation/Temperature
OA
CGCM3
Temperature
2
Temperature
1
2
2
1
0
CGCM3
0
-1
Surface Pressure
3
4
Observed
-2
-1
-3
-2
-1.5
OBS
-3
-1.0
-0.5
0.0
0.5
OJP
1.0
1.5
2.0
1
2
1
0
1
0
-1
2
1
2
-1
0
-1
-1.5
-2
-1.0
-0.5
0.0
0.5
Radiation
1.0
1.5
2.0
-2
2.0
-2
-3
1.5
Temperature
Radiation
1.0
Surface Pressure
0.5
0
0.0
-1
-0.5
Surface Pressure
-1.0
-2
-1.5
-3
-2
-3
-4
-2
-1
3
-1
3
0
4
0
4
Temperature
1
2
1
-3
Surface Pressure
2
3
Radiation
-2.0
-3
-1.5
-1.0
-0.5
0.0
Radiation
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
Different Data Structures –
Wind/Relative Humidity/Temperature
OA
CGCM3
-1
1
Temperature
2
0
Wind
1
2
3
4
Observed
CGCM3
-2
0
-3
-1
4
-4
-2
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
OJP
1
Rel. Humidity
0
0
-1
-1
3
3
-2
2
3
-3
-2
-1
0
Rel. Humidity
1
2
0
-1
-1
-2
-3
-2
-1
0
Rel. Humidity
1
2
Temperature
1
-1
-2
0
-2
1
0
2
1
-3
0
Wind
2
Wind
2
Temperature
1
1
0
-1
-1
Rel. Humidity
-2
-2
-3
-3
-4
-4
2
-3
-4
-2
Wind
2
2
1
Tempeature
3
-3
OBS
Remote sensing/data assimilation
10
0.24
SASKATOON
0.12
0.06
0
0
-0.06
-5
GRACE Gravity
Sask Abs-g
Kernen Abs-g
Mean Water Levels
-10
1996
-0.12
-0.18
-0.24
1998
2000
2002
2004
Time (Yrs)
2006
2008
2010
2012
Water Level Change (m)
5
Gravity (µGal)
GRACE
validation
0.18
Water resource systems modelling
- the SSRB in Alberta
Scenario-based climate change assessment
Climate
models
Hydrological
models
Water
resources
system
models
Performance
measures
Vulnerability assessment
∆ Natural
Flow
regime
Water
resources
system
models
Performance
measures
www.usask.ca/water
Downscaling precipitation futures
Probability of Daily Rainfall Saskatoon, 1962-2004
Validation Period
200
400
600
Calibration Period
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
Year
Probability of Daily Rainfall, Saskatoon, 2071-2100 (CGCM3 A1B)
200
400
600
Saskatoon GLM
Annual precipitaiton sum (mm)
Annual precipitaiton sum (mm)
Saskatoon GLM
2070
2075
2080
2085
Year
2090
2095
2100
Water resource vulnerability to climate change
Probability of system infeasibility, South Saskatchewan,
southern Alberta, due to changing Rocky Mountain flows
20 years
40 years
60 years
Interactive modelling of water futures
Systems dynamic modelling
Exploration of future scenarios
In conclusion:
The problems society now faces with respect to water
security are complex and multi-faceted.
New science, technologies and modelling tools are needed
to enable society to understand and manage change.
This requires a new approach to research infrastructure
and interdisciplinary collaboration
The SaskRB RHP builds on the 50 year legacy of Marmot
Creek to provide this focus and enable national and
international collaboration to address these critical
challenges
www.usask.ca/water