Los Angeles Community College District Strategic Plan
External Scan
July 21, 2011
I. Demographic Data
A. Population Trends
Los Angeles Community
College District (LACCD)
Los Angeles County (LA
Co.)
California (CA)
United States of America
(USA)
2011
Estimated
Population
2017
Projected
Population
2020
Projected
Population
5,110,599
5,253,575
5,363,301
5,382,041
128,466
2.45%
9,760,604
35,979,051
9,994,634
37,801,004
10,177,641
38,979,441
10,207,332
39,138,311
212,698
1,337,307
2.13%
3.54%
298,593,217 312,816,057 322,200,698 323,404,631 10,588,574
3.38%
∆ 2011 to
2020
Population by Age Group: LACCD Service Area
1,600,000
2011 Estimated
Population
1,400,000
1,200,000
2017 Projected
Population
1,000,000
800,000
600,000
400,000
200,000
0
Under 20
%∆
2011
to
2020
2006
Estimated
Population
20 ‐ 24
25 ‐ 34
35 ‐ 54
Prepared by: LACCD Office of Institutional Effectiveness
55 and
Over
Page 1 of 15
Los Angeles Community College District Strategic Plan
External Scan
July 21, 2011
Population by Ethnicity: LACCD Service Area
2011 Estimated
Population
3,000,000
2,500,000
2017 Projected
Population
2,000,000
1,500,000
1,000,000
500,000
0
American
Indian or
Alaska
Native
Asian,
Native
Hawaiian,
or other
Pacific
Islander
Black or
African
American
Caucasian
Prepared by: LACCD Office of Institutional Effectiveness
Hispanic
Two or
more races
Page 2 of 15
Los Angeles Community College District Strategic Plan
External Scan
July 21, 2011
Los Angeles County educational attainment data; note that these data only include
population over the age of 25:
2011 Educational Attainment* by Ethnicity:
Los Angeles County
College Degree
100%
90%
14.45%
22.68%
32.00%
80%
36.87%
52.45%
57.73%
70%
41.03%
60%
50%
10%
44.22%
54.48%
40%
20%
Less Than High
School
46.63%
30%
High School
Diploma
29.61%
40.31%
44.52%
30.69%
18.92%
13.52%
12.66%
7.23%
0%
American
Asian, Native
Indian or
Hawaiian, or
Alaska Native other Pacific
Islander
Black or
African
American
Caucasian
Hispanic
Two or more
races
*Educational Attainment Key:
Less Than High School = Less Than 9th Grade & 9th Grade to 12th Grade
High School Diploma =
High School Diploma & Some College
College Degree =
Associate's Degree, Bachelor's Degree, & Graduate Degree and Higher
B. Additional Population Statistics (from the 2009 American Community Survey)
% Speak
Labor Force
%
% Foreign Language
Average
Median
% of
Median Number of
Participation
Population Born that other than
Household Household
Individuals
Age
Households
Rate (Age
Foreign
are Non- English at
Size
Income
in Poverty
16+)
Born
Citizens Home (Age
5+)
LA Co.
CA
USA
34.2
3,166,126
34.9 12,214,891
36.8 113,616,229
3.05
2.96
2.63
$54,467
$58,931
$50,221
Prepared by: LACCD Office of Institutional Effectiveness
66.1%
65.3%
65.3%
16.1%
14.2%
14.3%
35.7%
26.9%
12.5%
54.7%
54.3%
56.3%
Page 3 of 15
57.1%
43.1%
20.0%
Los Angeles Community College District Strategic Plan
External Scan
July 21, 2011
II. Educational Trends
A. Tuition and Fees
Average Resident Undergraduate Tuition and Fee Rates in
Public Universities and Colleges, 1999-00 to 2009-10
$
$10,000
$9,000
$8,000
$7,000
$6,000
$5,000
$4,000
Annual Cost UC
$3,000
Annual Cost Flg Univ
Natl Mean
Annual Cost CSU
$2,000
Annual Cost State Univ
Natl Mean
Annual Cost CCC
$1,000
$0
Annual Cost CC Natl
Mean
Year
Annual
Cost UC
Annual Cost
Flg Univ Natl
Mean
Annual
Cost
CSU
Annual Cost
State Univ Natl
Mean
Annual
Cost CCC
Annual Cost
CC Natl Mean
1999-00
$4,047
$3,809
$1,847
$3,025
$330
$1,638
2000-01
$4,046
$4,003
$1,859
$3,164
$330
$1,726
2001-02
$4,123
$4,263
$1,897
$3,384
$330
$1,811
2002-03
$3,830
$4,694
$2,072
$3,738
$330
$1,972
2003-04
$5,250
$5,221
$2,649
$4,173
$540
$2,146
2004-05
$5,956
$5,701
$2,993
$4,545
$780
$2,318
2005-06
$7,434
$6,172
$3,225
$4,872
$780
$2,481
2006-07
$7,800
$6,618
$3,228
$5,201
$690
$2,626
2007-08
$8,385
$7,021
$3,604
$5,517
$600
$2,735
2008-09
$8,932
$7,481
$3,927
$5,862
$600
$2,854
2009-10
$9,434
$7,963
$4,956
$6,257
$780
$3,029
233%
209%
268%
207%
236%
185%
Year
Increase over period
Prepared by: LACCD Office of Institutional Effectiveness
Page 4 of 15
Los Angeles Community College District Strategic Plan
External Scan
July 21, 2011
B. K-12 Enrollments
Prepared by: LACCD Office of Institutional Effectiveness
Page 5 of 15
Los Angeles Community College District Strategic Plan
External Scan
July 21, 2011
Projected 12th Grade Enrollments and High School Graduates,
2000-01 to 2019-20
Students
California and Los Angeles County
400,000
350,000
300,000
250,000
CA excl LA 12th Grade
200,000
CA excl LA Grads
150,000
LA 12th Grade
100,000
LA Grads
50,000
0
Year
C. K-12 Institutional Performance
Average API Scores in California and LAUSD, 2005-2010
API Score
740
720
700
680
Avg API California
660
Avg API LAUSD
640
620
600
580
2005
2006
2007
2008
Prepared by: LACCD Office of Institutional Effectiveness
2009
2010
Year
Page 6 of 15
Los Angeles Community College District Strategic Plan
External Scan
July 21, 2011
D. Projected Enrollment in California Public Higher Education
CPEC California Community College Projected Enrollment Demand, 2009–2019
Headcount
Year
Mid-Range Forecast, Public Higher Education Undergraduates,
2008–2019 Fall
Year
CCC
CSU
2008
1,823,516
362,226
2009
1,897,197
370,371
2010
1,969,143
378,910
2011
2,041,666
387,863
2012
2,060,953
397,253
2013
2,076,558
407,099
2014
2,090,152
417,442
2015
2,103,820
419,572
2016
2,113,684
419,405
2017
2,122,914
418,730
2018
2,130,174
417,309
2019
2,136,779
416,106
Percent
change
17.20%
14.90%
Additional
students
313,263
53,880
Source: www.cpec.ca.gov, Report 10-08, June
2010
Prepared by: LACCD Office of Institutional Effectiveness
UC
172,775
176,284
179,960
183,811
187,850
192,086
196,448
195,880
194,621
193,701
193,254
193,018
Total
2,358,517
2,443,852
2,528,013
2,613,340
2,646,056
2,675,743
2,704,042
2,719,272
2,727,710
2,735,345
2,740,737
2,745,903
11.70%
16.40%
20,243
387,386
Page 7 of 15
Los Angeles Community College District Strategic Plan
External Scan
July 21, 2011
E. For-Profit Institutions
Number of degrees conferred by degree-granting institutions and percent change, by type of institution:
Academic years 1998–99 and 2008–09
Level of degree
and academic
year
Number of degrees
Associate’s
1998–99
2008–09
Percent change
Bachelor’s
1998–99
2008–09
Percent change
Total
Public
Private
Total
Not-for-profit
For-profit
559,954
787,325
40.6
448,334
596,098
33.0
111,620
191,227
71.3
47,611
46,929
-1.4
64,009
144,298
125.4
1,200,303
1,601,368
33.4
790,287
1,020,435
29.1
410,016
580,933
41.7
393,680
496,260
26.1
16,336
84,673
418.3
Source: Aud, S., Hussar, W., Kena, G., Bianco, K., Frohlich, L., Kemp, J., Tahan, K. (2011). The Condition of
Education 2011 (NCES 2011-033). U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics.
Washington, DC: U.S. Government Printing Office.
Prepared by: LACCD Office of Institutional Effectiveness
Page 8 of 15
Los Angeles Community College District Strategic Plan
External Scan
July 21, 2011
III. Employment and Labor Force
A. Los Angeles County Industry Employment Projections
-21,758
-34,853
6,743
7,003
-651
401,507
101,279
79,715
21,564
39,334
19,196
20,138
34,487
32,376
2,111
71,086
%
Change
-3.5%
-8.7%
36.1%
3.6%
-7.5%
8.2%
14.5%
14.7%
13.7%
7.1%
5.4%
10.2%
6.0%
6.1%
4.4%
8.2%
390,653
26,787
7.4%
451,305
504,371
55,723
46,956
234,581
243,755
139,537
148,195
22,199
23,540
7,814
8,232
21,528
21,281
34,107
31,929
9,396
10,578
984,926 1,027,885
257,848
279,004
213,819
220,932
499,734
513,187
13,525
14,762
540,308
595,942
265,822
295,163
274,486
300,779
406,961
454,515
65,613
64,583
78,090
85,238
53,066
-8,767
9,174
8,658
1,341
418
-247
-2,178
1,182
42,959
21,156
7,113
13,453
1,237
55,634
29,341
26,293
47,554
-1,030
7,148
11.8%
-15.7%
3.9%
6.2%
6.0%
5.3%
-1.1%
-6.4%
12.6%
4.4%
8.2%
3.3%
2.7%
9.1%
10.3%
11.0%
9.6%
11.7%
-1.6%
9.2%
78,268
1,089
1.4%
186,079
226,426
5,493,931 5,873,680
40,347
379,749
21.7%
6.9%
2011
Goods Producing
Manufacturing
Mining, Quarrying, and Oil and Gas Extraction
Construction
Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing and Hunting
Service Providing
Educational and Health Services
Health Care and Social Assistance
Educational Services
Leisure and Hospitality
Accommodation and Food Services
Arts, Entertainment, and Recreation
Government
State and Local Government
Federal Government
Professional and Business Services
Administrative and Support and Waste Management
and Remediation Services
Professional, Scientific, and Technical Services
Management of Companies and Enterprises
Information
Motion Picture and Sound Recording Industries
Broadcasting (except Internet)
Data Processing, Hosting and Related Services
Publishing Industries (except Internet)
Telecommunications
Other Information Services
Trade, Transportation, and Utilities
Wholesale Trade
Transportation and Warehousing
Retail Trade
Utilities
Financial Activities
Finance and Insurance
Real Estate and Rental and Leasing
Other Services (except Public Administration)
Repair and Maintenance
Personal and Laundry Services
Religious, Grantmaking, Civic, Professional, and
Similar Organizations
Private Households
Total
Prepared by: LACCD Office of Institutional Effectiveness
2017
622,224
600,466
400,147
365,294
18,675
25,418
194,725
201,728
8,677
8,026
4,871,707 5,273,214
699,969
801,248
542,060
621,775
157,909
179,473
556,381
595,715
358,258
377,454
198,123
218,261
577,687
612,174
529,658
562,034
48,029
50,140
870,894
941,980
363,866
77,179
Change
Page 9 of 15
Los Angeles Community College District Strategic Plan
External Scan
July 21, 2011
B. Los Angeles County Job Projections by Degree Required
Education Level
Postsecondary vocational award
Associate's degree
Bachelor's degree
Master's degree
Doctoral degree
Degree plus work experience
First professional degree
Total
2011 Jobs
336,153
152,784
821,565
66,401
70,456
300,350
85,158
1,832,867
Prepared by: LACCD Office of Institutional Effectiveness
2017 Jobs
371,694
171,008
907,225
74,190
79,998
319,532
92,330
2,015,977
2020 Jobs
384,504
180,251
945,541
77,361
84,306
328,447
95,085
2,095,495
∆ 2011 to
2020
48,351
27,467
123,976
10,960
13,850
28,097
9,927
262,628
%∆ 2011
to 2020
14.38%
17.98%
15.09%
16.51%
19.66%
9.35%
11.66%
14.33%
Page 10 of 15
Los Angeles Community College District Strategic Plan
External Scan
July 21, 2011
California Labor Market Gaps by Educational Level
Jobs requiring a postsecondary vocational award or Associate’s degree, ranked by the
size of the expected increase in number of jobs from 2011 to 2017:
2011
Jobs
Rank
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
Postsecondary vocational award jobs
Real estate sales agents
Nursing aides, orderlies, and attendants
Medical secretaries
Licensed practical and licensed vocational nurses
Hairdressers, hairstylists, and cosmetologists
Preschool teachers, except special education
Fitness trainers and aerobics instructors
Appraisers and assessors of real estate
Legal secretaries
Travel agents
Massage therapists
Gaming dealers
Emergency medical technicians and paramedics
Surgical technologists
Prepared by: LACCD Office of Institutional Effectiveness
2017
Jobs
89,755 102,190
37,848
42,934
22,285
25,586
21,469
24,295
13,646
15,501
16,599
18,327
8,642
10,227
10,723
12,113
11,062
11,852
5,271
5,885
3,740
4,315
3,439
3,915
2,887
3,350
2,603
3,021
%
Change
Change
12,435
5,086
3,301
2,826
1,855
1,728
1,585
1,390
790
614
575
476
463
418
2011
Median
Hourly
Wage
13.85%
13.44%
14.81%
13.16%
13.59%
10.41%
18.34%
12.96%
7.14%
11.65%
15.37%
13.84%
16.04%
16.06%
Page 11 of 15
$9.48
$12.24
$15.11
$22.83
$16.54
$12.70
$15.26
$14.08
$23.82
$16.01
$20.77
$8.95
$13.72
$21.15
Los Angeles Community College District Strategic Plan
External Scan
July 21, 2011
Rank
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
Postsecondary vocational award jobs
Healthcare technologists and technicians, all other
Automotive service technicians and mechanics
Manicurists and pedicurists
Healthcare practitioners and technical workers, all
other
Slot key persons
Skin care specialists
Medical transcriptionists
Barbers
Library technicians
Bus and truck mechanics and diesel engine
specialists
Mobile heavy equipment mechanics, except
engines
%
Change
Change
2011
Median
Hourly
Wage
2011
Jobs
2017
Jobs
4,219
18,747
4,259
4,627
19,074
4,581
408
327
322
9.67%
1.74%
7.56%
$19.61
$21.43
$11.31
2,227
2,486
259
11.63%
$30.55
1,522
1,327
4,617
1,218
2,125
1,780
1,557
4,805
1,398
2,263
258
230
188
180
138
16.95%
17.33%
4.07%
14.78%
6.49%
$9.91
$17.09
$15.58
$21.96
$18.49
5,248
5,376
128
2.44%
$22.43
3,541
3,662
121
3.42%
$32.16
Jobs requiring an Associate’s degree, ranked by the size of the expected increase in
number of jobs from 2011 to 2017:
Rank
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
Associate's degree jobs
Registered nurses
Paralegals and legal assistants
Computer support specialists
Medical and clinical laboratory technicians
Respiratory therapists
Medical records and health information
technicians
Radiologic technologists and technicians
Dental hygienists
Computer specialists, all other
Interior designers
Veterinary technologists and technicians
Biological technicians
Fashion designers
Prepared by: LACCD Office of Institutional Effectiveness
%
Change
Change
2011
Median
Hourly
Wage
2011
Jobs
2017
Jobs
62,450
9,115
14,972
4,936
3,630
72,192
10,188
15,741
5,542
4,211
9,742
1,073
769
606
581
15.60%
11.77%
5.14%
12.28%
16.01%
$38.25
$27.81
$21.90
$18.38
$30.96
4,507
5,077
570
12.65%
$16.33
4,362
3,340
7,605
3,893
1,677
1,849
3,750
4,881
3,852
8,104
4,315
2,066
2,180
3,995
519
512
499
422
389
331
245
11.90%
15.33%
6.56%
10.84%
23.20%
17.90%
6.53%
$29.09
$40.27
$34.39
$20.32
$15.96
$19.69
$29.47
Page 12 of 15
Los Angeles Community College District Strategic Plan
External Scan
July 21, 2011
2011
Jobs
Rank
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
Associate's degree jobs
Physical therapist assistants
Geological and petroleum technicians
Diagnostic medical sonographers
Cardiovascular technologists and technicians
Life, physical, and social science technicians, all
other
Occupational therapist assistants
Civil engineering technicians
Radiation therapists
Broadcast technicians
Environmental science and protection technicians,
including health
Engineering technicians, except drafters, all other
Social science research assistants
Prepared by: LACCD Office of Institutional Effectiveness
2017
Jobs
%
Change
Change
2011
Median
Hourly
Wage
906
535
1,580
1,024
1,113
736
1,775
1,201
207
201
195
177
22.85%
37.57%
12.34%
17.29%
$25.97
$21.39
$33.67
$30.23
1,507
1,675
168
11.15%
$19.53
631
1,822
607
2,246
760
1,937
718
2,351
129
115
111
105
20.44%
6.31%
18.29%
4.67%
$24.79
$31.72
$44.15
$16.26
705
803
98
13.90%
$25.25
1,952
516
2,010
570
58
54
2.97%
10.47%
$30.36
$19.17
Page 13 of 15
Los Angeles Community College District Strategic Plan
External Scan
July 21, 2011
C. Unemployment Rates in Los Angeles and California, 2000 – 2010
Unemployment Rates: 2000 ‐ 2010
14.0%
12.0%
Unemployment Rate
Los Angeles County
10.0%
California
8.0%
6.0%
4.0%
2.0%
0.0%
Year
IV. Policies and Initiatives
Student Progress & Achievement Rate (SPAR)*
East Los Angeles College
Los Angeles City College
Los Angeles Harbor College
Los Angeles Mission College
Los Angeles Pierce College
Los Angeles Southwest College
Los Angeles Trade Technical College
Los Angeles Valley College
West Los Angeles College
State Average
2009-10
44.5
42.0
49.0
43.0
52.0
40.3
36.4
51.0
46.4
53.6
*Percentage of first-time students who showed intent to
complete and who achieved any of the following outcomes
within six years: Transferred to a four-year college; or earned an
AA/AS; or earned a Certificate (18 units or more); or achieved
"Transfer Directed" status; or achieved "Transfer Prepared"
status.
Prepared by: LACCD Office of Institutional Effectiveness
Page 14 of 15
Los Angeles Community College District Strategic Plan
External Scan
July 21, 2011
Progress Of Fall 2007 Cohort Students Placed in Basic Skills Math
By Student Ethnicity, Over 3 Years
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
Completed First
Enrolled in
Recommended Course in the First
Year
Course in the First
Year
Asian
Asian
Passed
Elementary
Algebra
Black
Black
Passed
Intermediate
Algebra
Hispanic
Hispanic
White
Passed College
Algebra / Transfer
Level Math
White
Amer
Ind/
Other
NonWhite
All
Students
Enrolled in
Recommended Course in
the First Year
67.6%
62.4%
73.7%
62.3%
57.4%
69.8%
Completed First Course
in the First Year
50.6%
26.4%
43.5%
44.9%
40.6%
41.6%
Passed Elementary
Algebra
47.2%
18.5%
36.8%
46.8%
43.9%
36.2%
Passed Intermediate
Algebra
30.6%
7.3%
19.7%
26.3%
19.4%
19.5%
Passed College Algebra /
Transfer Level Math
17.7%
3.1%
9.1%
12.0%
8.4%
9.2%
Prepared by: LACCD Office of Institutional Effectiveness
Page 15 of 15