Enrollment Projections
2008 – 2018
Faculty Senate Meeting
February 19, 2008
Dr. Terrence Curran
Associate Provost for
Enrollment Management
Enrollment Management

1.
Increase Student Success
Retention Rates
Graduation rates

2.
Increase Student Access
Affordability
Pipeline of Quality Ready Students
Partnerships
Outreach Education
Scholarships and Financial Aid

3.
Expand Market Share
Out -of-State
Transfer Students
Veterans
Male Students
Underrepresented Populations
Graduate Students
Non-Traditional Students
Strategic Academic Disciplines
Strategic Enrollment Plan Results In…..










1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
7.
8.
9.
10.
Clear Enrollment Goals
Defined Capacity.
Establish Processes that Enable Student Success.
Optimum Enrollment
Effective Academic Programs
Tuition and Revenue
Continuity and Consistency in Institutional Planning
Increased Organizational Efficiency
Improve Service Levels
Student and Faculty Satisfaction
UNCW Enrollment Assumptions
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
7.
8.
9.
10.
11.
12.
13.
Increase quality of Freshman class.
Narrow “quality gap” between freshman and transfers.
Increase diversity.
Maintain commitment to 8 county service region.
Increase education enrollment and teacher production.
Increase nursing graduates.
Sustain enrollments in premier academic programs.
Increase enrollments in emerging academic disciplines.
Achieve freshman to sophomore retention to 90% by 2012.
Improve 4 year graduation rate to 50% by 2012.
Improve 6 year graduation rate to 70% by 2012.
Improve 6 year graduation rate to 75% by 2017.
UNCW will address UNC Tomorrow.
UNC Tomorrow
Increasing Access to Higher Education
The UNC Tomorrow Commission found that “UNC should increase access to
higher education for all North Carolinians, particularly for underserved
regions, underrepresented populations, and non-traditional students.” (Sec.
4.2)
Campuses are asked to review existing academic programs, student support
systems, distance education, online programs, potential flexible program
offerings, and student recruitment efforts, and identify ways in which they
will institutionalize:
Increasing access to their educational programs (academic courses, degree programs and certificate
programs) in underserved regions of the state
Increasing access to their educational programs (academic courses, degree programs and certificate
programs) for non-traditional students and life-long learners, including encouraging the completion
of baccalaureate degrees
Strengthening and streamlining articulation agreements and collaborative programs, including
academic advising programs, with Community Colleges
•Increasing the educational attainment of underrepresented populations, especially African-American
males, Hispanics, and American Indians, and increasing student diversity on their campuses
•Helping to ensure that all students are better prepared to enter and succeed academically in college,
including increasing retention and graduation rates and strengthening programs such as Early College
and Summer Bridge
•Increasing access through the use of distance education and online degree, certificate, and licensure
programs.
•Other initiatives identified by the campus that respond to this Section of the UNC Tomorrow
Commission report
•Serving as a model for accommodating the needs of persons with disabilities.
In developing plans to expand access, diversity, and opportunities for student
success, campuses are asked to consider the related suggested strategies
identified by the UNC Tomorrow Commission.
Ten-Year Enrollment Plans: Campuses are asked to factor anticipated
enrollment increases based on the plans developing under this section into
their Ten-Year Enrollment Plans (preliminary information on Ten-Year
Enrollment Plans due February 29, 2008; final plans due May 1, 2008)
99038
117383
114823
83679
85183
84252
87698
83234
86229
81919
57886
59049
59776
63014
56770
60211
59272
1998
61887
65681
69568
71853
74691
76940
2010
86207
90602
95851
114854
2020
2016
2015
2014
2009
2013
2008
2012
100000
2011
2007
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
1997
2000
1996
1999
1995
1994
1992
57495
Actual
- 21
- 20
- 19
- 18
- 17
- 16
- 15
- 14
- 13
- 12
- 11
- 10
- 09
- 08
- 07
- 06
- 05
- 04
- 03
- 02
- 01
- 00
- 99
- 98
- 97
- 96
- 95
- 94
- 93
6
UNC-GA IRA/EnrDiv.UG001/10-2-07
112982
0
2019
20000
1993
60000
Predicted
2018
120000
2017
40000
2006
80000
Graduates
NC Public High School Graduates
140000
School Year
The University of North Carolina General Administration
Relation of the Models
(Total Projected Demand to 2017)
Headcount
300,000
HS Grads Projection Model
290,000
280,000
County Diversity Model
270,000
Census Model
260,000
Average of Models
250,000
240,000
230,000
220,000
210,000
(actual)
200,000
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
The University of North Carolina General Administration
UNC-GA Academic Planning/ARMwmd/2-16-07
7
Projection of Enrollment Demand for UNC:
Three-Model Average
Headcount
300,000
290,000
281,295
280,000
268,778
270,000
260,087
260,000
252,554
247,525
242,795
237,347
230,880
225,209
218,070
250,000
240,000
230,000
220,000
210,000
210,226
(actual)
200,000
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
The University of North Carolina General Administration
8
University of North Carolina System
Enrollment and Changing Diversity for the State
Race/
Ethnicity
Fall 2006
Fr. Enrollment
#
%
2005-06
Projected High School Graduates
HS Graduates
2007-2008
2017-2018
#
%
#
%
#
%
White
17,204
64.3%
49,223
64.0%
51,210
61.5%
53,323
47.2%
4.1%
Black
6,778
25.3%
20,836
27.1%
24,618
29.6%
27,864
24.7%
13.2%
Am Indian
Asian
Hispanic
277
872
665
1.0%
3.3%
2.5%
831
1,728
3,188
1.1%
2.2%
4.1%
1,017
1,951
4,438
1.2%
2.3%
5.3%
1,387
4,256
26,152
1.2%
3.8%
23.1%
36.4%
118.1%
489.3%
Other
968
3.6%
1,134
1.5%
0
0.0%
0
0.0%
N/A
83,234 100.0% 112,982 100.0%
35.7%
Total
26,764 100.0%
76,940 100.0%
2007-2017
% Change
Note: Freshmen enrollment figures represent students from the state. High school graduates and
projected graduates are for public schools only.
The University of North Carolina General Administration
UNC-GA IRA/EnrDiv.UG001/2-21-07
9
Projected UNC Enrollment Demand for Fall 2017
Average of Projection Models
Institution
Enrollment
Institution
Enrollment
ASU
ECU
18,498
33,195
UNCA
UNC-CH
4,558
35,311
ECSU
3,978
UNCC
29,524
FSU
NCA&T
NCCU
NCSA
NCSU
9,833
14,641
13,513
1,091
40,517
UNCG
UNCP
UNCW
WCU
WSSU
24,165
9,485
15,744
17,228
10,014
UNC Total
281,295
The University of North Carolina General Administration
UNC-GA IRA/EnrDiv.UG001/3-14-07
10
UNCW Challenges


1.
2.
3.

4.

5.

6.
7.


UNCW has significant space and facility shortages.
64% of CAS enrollment is found in 10 majors.
There is an expanding number of students who continue to
find themselves cornered in the “pre-major” status and no
institutional commitment to address their needs.
School of Nursing growth is inhibited by availability of
appropriate faculty to meet accreditation standards.
School of Education growth is inhibited by the availability of
interested and qualified students.
Cameron School of Business is within capacity.
UNCW’s current budget resource is insufficient to
meet adequate staffing levels, program requirements,
market salary competitiveness, and aspirations at our
current enrollment level.
UNCW Challenges

8.

9.

10.

11.

12.

13.

14.
UNCW’s Distance Education/Extension requires a definition
of vision, a commitment of support by the Dean and Faculty
of each College/Professional School and an institutionally
supported funding model.
Prior UNCW enrollment models were unrealistic in estimating
the proportion of graduate enrollment growth.
UNCW’s current level of scholarships inhibits market
competitiveness with selectivity aspirations.
UNCW’s lack of funds for graduate assistantships inhibits
graduate growth and quality.
UNCW needs to establish brand recognition and
consistency in institutional messages.
UNCW must address inconsistencies in academic advising
models and improve institutional commitment at each level
of the institution.
UNCW must improve communication/awareness of academic
policy development and implementation.
Fall 2007 Statistics
 New Freshman











1920
New Transfers
1294
Total Undergraduate
11026
New Masters
429
New Doctorate
19
Total Graduate
1154
Extension UG.
273
Extension GRAD.
67
Total Headcount
12180
85% Fresh. to Soph. retention rate
44% four-year graduation rate
65% six-year graduation rate
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
First-time
Freshmen
1950
1950
1950
1950
1950
1950
1950
1950
1950
1950
Undergrad
Transfers
1320
1325
1330
1335
1340
1345
1350
1355
1360
1365
Undergraduate
Total
10875
11061
11197
11298
11374
11433
11479
11517
11548
11575
Graduate Total
1210
1270
1330
1390
1450
1510
1570
1630
1690
1750
Grand Total
Resident Credit
12085
12331
12527
12688
12824
12943
13049
13147
13238
13325
Extension (UG)
200
200
200
200
200
200
200
200
200
200
Extension
(Master's)
125
125
125
125
125
125
125
125
125
125
Extension Only
Total
325
325
325
325
325
325
325
325
325
325
12410
12656
12852
13013
13149
13268
13374
13472
13563
13650
2.5%
2.0%
1.6%
1.3%
1.1%
1.0%
.8%
.75%
.70%
.65%
BASE SCENARIO
Grand Total
Resident Credit
+
Extension
% Growth
Overall
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
First-time
Freshmen
1960
1975
1990
2005
2025
2045
2065
2090
2115
2140
Undergrad
Transfers
1350
1380
1410
1440
1485
1530
1575
1635
1695
1755
Undergraduate
Total
10908
11018
11269
11501
11664
11894
12056
12169
12305
12463
Graduate Total
1110
1177
1256
1307
1349
1401
1474
1541
1605
1696
Grand Total
Resident Credit
12018
12195
12525
12808
13013
13295
13530
13710
13910
14159
Extension (UG)
373
474
487
497
504
772
784
1058
1072
1089
Extension
(Master's)
80
127
146
165
184
204
226
247
271
297
Extension Only
Total
453
601
633
662
688
976
1010
1305
1343
1386
12471
12796
13158
13470
13701
14271
14540
15015
15253
15545
2.0%
3%
3%
2%
2%
4%
2%
3%
2%
2%
BASE SCENARIO
Grand Total
Resident Credit
+
Extension
% Growth
Overall
2007 vs. 2017 Undergraduate Resident
Credit Enrollment by College/School
6500
6000
5500
5000
4500
4000
3500
3000
2500
2000
1500
1000
500
0
Fall 2017
Fall 2007
5940
3970
4485
2394
1792
3106
1522
996
CAS
CSB
WSE
537
150
477
NSG
114
UC
SPEC UNC