Per Capita Personal Income as % of State Per Capita Income
1,35
1,3
1,25
1,2
1,15
1,1
1,05
1
0,95
0,9
0,85
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
Alexandria
Baton Rouge
Lafayette
Lake Charles
Monroe
New Orleans
Shreveport
Dr. Robert Eisenstadt, University of Louisiana at Monroe
Dr. John Francis, Louisiana Tech University

PowerPoint presentations from the 2011 BOS will be made available for review on-line at:

State
Oregon
Wyoming
Utah
Texas
Arizona
Louisiana
The Change in Real Louisiana GSP
2005-2007
Rank % change Rank
2007-2009
% change
1
2
3
13.6%
13.0%
12.5%
31
1
11
-2.7%
19.6%
0.2%
4
5
50
10.2%
10.0%
-6.5%
15
46
6
-0.3%
-5.9%
4.1%

The Change in Real Louisiana GSP continued
State
Louisiana
Arkansas
Mississippi
Texas
2005-2007 2007-2009
Rank % change Rank % change
50 -6.5% 6 4.1%
31
21
4
3.4%
5.0%
10.2%
10
9
15
0.6%
0.8%
-0.3%

The Change in Real GSP by LA MSA
2005-2007
Metropolitan Area
Lafayette
Alexandria
Shreveport-Bossier City
Monroe
Baton Rouge
State
Rank
1
2
3
4
5
New Orleans-Metairie-Kenner 6
Lake Charles 7
% change
16.7%
6.7%
3.3%
1.9%
-7.9%
-11.3%
-31.3%
2007-2009
State
Rank
3
6
4
7
1
2
5
% change
4.6%
-2.3%
9.3%
-1.6%
1.8%
5.8%
0.4%

Population Change by MSA: 2000-2010
15,0%
10,0%
5,0%
6,1%
0,0%
13,7%
7,0%
14,5%
3,1%
3,8%
-5,0%
-11,3%
6,0%
-10,0%
-15,0%
1,2%
2000-2010 change in US = 9.7%
2000-2010 change in LA = 1.4%

Population Change in NE Louisiana: 2000-2010
8,0%
6,0%
4,0%
2,0%
0,0%
-2,0%
-4,0%
-6,0%
0,5%
NE LA less Ouach/Lincoln
-5,4%
Ouachita/Lincoln Parish: +10,696
NELA less Ouach/Lincoln: - 8,800
RLMA 8
-0,7%
5,6%
Ouach/Lincoln only

Index of population change 1980-2010 (1980=1): US, LA, NELA
1,40
1,30
1,20
1,10
1,00
0,90
0,80
1980 1990
USA
LA
NELA
Ouachita/Lincoln
NELA less
Ouach/Linc
2000 2010
Hispanic as % of Population
1980 2010
Louisiana 2.35%
United States 6.45%
4.25%
16.35%

Non-Auto Retail: Annual change in 3-month running average
8,00%
6,00%
4,00%
2,00%
0,00%
-2,00%
-4,00%
-6,00%
-8,00%
-10,00%
-12,00%
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Ouachita
United States

7,00%
6,00%
5,00%
4,00%
3,00%
2,00%
1,00%
0,00%
-1,00%
Non-Auto Retail Sales: % change 2009-2010
5,8%
-0,15%
Jan-Dec
4,70%
6,4%
Nov-Dec
Ouachita
USA

New Light Trucks/Vans:
Index : 2007 = 100%
1,1
1
0,9
0,8
0,7
0,6
0,5
2007
80,3%
82,5%
2008
61,6%
58,4%
2009 2010
69,2%
62,7%
Louisiana
NE Louisiana
State/Year
Louisiana
NE Louisiana
2007 2008 2009 2010
157,665 126,574 92,105 98,783
10,201 8,418 6,281 7,057

1,05
1
0,95
0,9
0,85
0,8
0,75
0,7
0,65
0,6
New Automobiles:
Index : 2007 =100%
100%
100%
2007
91,0%
98,1%
2008
72,9%
67,1%
2009
76,2%
2010
62,8%
Louisiana
NE Louisiana
2007 2008 2009 2010
98,083 89,258 65,782 61,637
4,462 4,376 3,254 3,399
Louisiana
NE Louisiana

NE LA Dealer Sample: New Vehicles:
12 000
10 000
8 000
6 000
4 000
2 000
0
11 037
2007
9 222
2008
6 118
2009
6 604
2010
Source: Cross-Sell Reports

Building Permits:
Index: 2005 =1.0
1,2
1,1
1
0,9
0,8
0,7
0,6
0,5
0,4
0,3
0,2
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Ouachita
LA
USA

Building Permit Value:
Housing Permits Ouachita Parish
Building Permits
2005
580
2006
516
2007
437
2008
271
2009
232
2010
219
Total Cost (millions $) $103.6
$89.5
$68.0
$47.3
$38.5
$37.3
Source: U.S. Census

2008-10 Change in Existing Home Prices: Top 5 States
Rank
1
4
5
2
3
% Change Median Price
State % change 2008-10
North Dakota 10.2%
Oklahoma
Iowa
4.0%
3.0%
Louisiana
Nebraska
2.6%
2.2%
Source: National Association of Realtors
Northeast LA = +3.2%
United States = -12.7%

And the lowest ranking states:
Rank
46
47
48
49
50
State
California
Idaho
Florida
Arizona
Nevada
% change in median price
2008-10
-17.8%
-17.9%
-26.4%
-28.6%
-31.8%

% Change in Median Home Prices: Louisiana MSA’s:
Baton Rouge
New Orleans
Monroe
Shreveport
2008
$165,000
$160,500
$129,000
$138,500
Source: National Association of Realtors
2009
$163,000
$160,100
$134,000
$147,000
2010
$169,600
$159,700
$135,000
$156,600
%chg 2008-10
+2.8%
-0.5%
+4.7%
+13.1%

Existing Home Sales in Lincoln, Morehouse, Ouachita, Union seem to lack support for a significant price rise…
Close price
Price per Sq Foot
2008
Home Price less than $200,000
2009 2010
$115,000
$71.05
$118,000
$73.49
$114,500
$72.11
Close price
Price per Sq Foot
Home Price Greater Than or Equal to $200,000
2008 2009 2010
$252,000 $249,900 $252,000
$106.41
$106.33
$107.51
Close price
Price per Sq Foot
2008
$128,850
$77.12
All Existing Homes
2009
$133,000
$80.81
2010
$133,000
$79.73
Source: NE LA Board of Realtors MLS

Until we note the number of homes sold in
Northeast LA:
Under $200,000
$200,000 and up
2008
1262
290
2009
1198
317
2010
1161
340

Existing homes Market: Ouachita, Morehouse, Lincoln, Union
Listings vs. Sales Index: 2006=1
0,93
0,91
0,89
0,87
0,85
1,01
0,99
0,97
0,95
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Listings sales listings sales
2006
2758
1730
2007
2745
1679
2008
2664
1552
2009
2417
1513
2010
2643
1501

Ouachita foreclosures are down (approx ½ US rate):
Ouachita Parish Foreclosures
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
593 486 601 655 601 650 582
And bankruptcy filings in LA lag the Nation: 2007 = 1.0
2,1
1,9
1,7
1,5
1,3
1,1
0,9
2007 2008
• Western District 2010 =12,536 (+5.1%)
• Louisiana 2010 = 19,236 (+5.3%)
• U.S (+13.8%)
2009
Source: U.S. Federal Court
2010
West LA
Louisiana
U.S.

Total Covered Employment (Jobs):
131 000
130 000
129 000
128 000
127 000
126 000
125 000
124 000
123 000
NE Louisiana
130 257
129 690
130 737
127 050
125 879
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Figures as of 2 nd qtr 2010: LA Dept of Labor; USBLS.
1,01
1
0,99
0,98
0,97
0,96
0,95
1,05
1,04
1,03
1,02
2006
Jobs index: 2006 = 1.0
2007 2008 2009 2010
NE LA
LA
US

Construction:
7 000
6 900
6 800
6 700
6 600
6 500
6 400
6 300
6 200
6 100
6 922
NE Louisiana
6 988
6 794
6 809
6 457
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Jobs index: 2006 = 1.0
1,05
1
0,95
0,9
0,85
0,8
0,75
0,7
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
NE LA
LA
US

Manufacturing:
14 000
12 000
10 000
8 000
6 000
4 000
2 000
0
NE Louisiana
13 145
12 534
11 832
9 858 10 057
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
1,08
1,03
0,98
0,93
0,88
0,83
0,78
0,73
2006
Jobs index: 2006 = 1.0
2007 2008 2009 2010
NE LA
LA
US

Retail Trade:
17 400
17 200
17 000
16 800
16 600
16 400
16 200
16 000
15 800
16 892
NE Louisiana
17 324
16 983
16 408 16 414
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Jobs index: 2006 = 1.0
0,99
0,98
0,97
0,96
0,95
0,94
0,93
1,03
1,02
1,01
1
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
NE LA
LA
US

5 800
5 700
5 600
5 500
5 400
5 300
5 200
Finance and Insurance:
NE Louisiana
5 391
5 424
5 406 5 407
2006 2007 2008 2009
5 753
2010
1,09
1,07
1,05
1,03
1,01
0,99
0,97
0,95
0,93
0,91
2006
Jobs index: 2006 = 1.0
2007 2008 2009 2010
NE LA
LA
US

Health Care & Social Assistance:
25 400
25 200
25 000
24 800
24 600
24 400
24 200
24 000
23 800
23 600
23 400
24 047
2006
NE Louisiana
25 276
25 000 24 997
24 364
2007 2008 2009 2010
Jobs index: 2006 = 1.0
1,14
1,12
1,1
1,08
1,06
1,04
1,02
1
0,98
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
*US data contains both education and health care
NE LA
LA
US*

Total Employment (excluding Healthcare):
NE Louisiana
107000
106000
105000
104000
103000
102000
101000
100000
99000
98000
106 210
105 326
105 737
2006 2007 2008
101 774
100 882
2009 2010
1,05
1,03
1,01
0,99
0,97
0,95
0,93
2006
Jobs index: 2006 = 1.0
2007 2008 2009 2010
NELA
LA
US

Unemployment by MSA:
Alexandria
Baton Rouge
Houma
Lafayette
Lake Charles
Monroe
New Orleans
Shreveport
Dec-07
2,546
13,529
2,679
3,596
3,530
3,524
17,072
7,799
Unemployed
Dec-10
4,720
27,103
5,213
4,656
6,379
6,139
38,136
12,079
US 12/2010=9.1%
LA 12/2010=7.2%
Source: Laworks.net
Alexandria
Baton Rouge
Houma
Lafayette
Lake Charles
Monroe
New Orleans
Shreveport
Unemployment Rate (%)
Dec-07
3.8
Dec-10
6.7
3.7
2.6
3.3
7.1
5.1
5.6
3.8
4.4
3.3
4.3
6.7
7.7
7.0
6.6

Louisiana Employment:
Total Nonfarm Employment in Louisiana
Total Private Non-farm Employment in Louisiana
Dec-09 R
1,890,000
1,518,700
LA continued weekly unemployment claims 2009-10 = -24.2%
US continued weekly unemployment claims 2009-10 = -20.5%
Dec-10 R
1,899,300
1,534,700
Mining & Logging
Oil & Gas Extraction
Crude Petrol & Nat Gas Ext
Support Activities for Mining
Drilling Oil & Gas Wells
Dec 2007 R
51,600
7,900
7,800
39,200
9,600
Dec 2009 R
47,300
8,900
8,600
36,400
7,300
Dec 2010 R
52,300
8,600
8,000
39,600
9,000

Probable s sources of significant Job growth in
Northeast Louisiana for the next 2-5 years:
• Manufacturing
• Autos
• Food processing
• Telecommunications
• Financial Services/Information

5 year estimates of growth (range):
• Jobs (f/t equivalent): 2,700 - 9,000
• 2.5% - 8.2%
• HH Income($ millions): $90.0 - $285.0
• 2.4% - 7.5%
% change based on aggregate of Lincoln, Morehouse, Ouachita, Richland, Union Parishes

• Next Auto fails to obtain Federal Loan
• Cuts to State Government
• Higher Education
• Amounts unknown
• K-12 education
• Probably not

Regarding the effect on NELA of State funding cuts to higher education, consider first the annual impact of Gardner Denver Thomas :
Direct Effects
Indirect Effects
Total Impact
F/T Equivalent Jobs
230
300
530
HH Income
$9.2 Million
$7.5 Million
$16.7 Million

Now consider the combined impact of ULM, Tech,
and Grambling on NELA.
And a 5% cut in State funding:
From University
Spending
From Student
Spending
100% of Spending
F/T equivalent
Jobs HH Income
5,830
2,020
$340 million
$37 million
5% Cut in Spending
F/T equivalent
Jobs HH Income
-292
-101
-$17.0 million
-$1.85 million
Total Impact 7,850 $377 million -393 -$18.85 million
Source of data: Louisiana Board of Regents

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Business Outlook Summit.