BANCO DE PORTUGAL
Economics Research Department
Gaps and Triangles
Bernardino Adão
Isabel Correia
Pedro Teles
WP 2-01
March 2001
The analyses, opinions and findings of this paper represent the views of the
authors, they are not necessarily those of the Banco de Portugal.
Please address correspondence to Bernardino Adão, Economics Research
Department, Banco de Portugal, Av. Almirante Reis, nº 71, 1150-012 Lisboa,
Portugal - Tel.#351-1-3130000; Fax#351-1-3143841;
e-mail:badao@bportugal.pt.
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5:
WORKING PAPERS
1/90
PRODUTO POTENCIAL, DESEMPREGO E INFLAÇÃO EM PORTUGAL
Um estudo para o período 1974-1989
— Carlos Robalo Marques
2/90
INFLAÇÃO EM PORTUGAL
Um estudo econométrico para o período 1965-1989, com projecções para 1990 e 1991
— Carlos Robalo Marques
3/92
THE EFFECTS OF LIQUIDITY CONSTRAINTS ON CONSUMPTION BEHAVIOUR
The Portuguese Experience
— Sílvia Luz
4/92
LOW FREQUENCY FILTERING AND REAL BUSINESS CYCLES
— Robert G. King, Sérgio T. Rebelo
5/92
GROWTH IN OPEN ECONOMIES
— Sérgio Rebelo
6/92
DYNAMIC OPTIMAL TAXATION IN SMALL OPEN ECONOMIES
— Isabel H. Correia
7/92
EXTERNAL DEBT AND ECONOMIC GROWTH
— Isabel H. Correia
8/92
BUSINESS CYCLES FROM 1850 TO 1950: NEW FACTS ABOUT OLD DATA
— Isabel H. Correia, João L. Neves, Sérgio Rebelo
9/92
LABOUR HOARDING AND THE BUSINESS CYCLE
— Craig Burnside, Martin Eichenbaum, Sérgio Rebelo
10/92
ANALYSIS OF FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENT FLOWS IN PORTUGAL USING PANEL
DATA
— Luísa Farinha
11/92
INFLATION IN FIXED EXCHANGE RATE REGIMES:
THE RECENT PORTUGUESE EXPERIENCE
— Sérgio Rebelo
12/92
TERM STRUCTURE OF INTEREST RATES IN PORTUGAL
— Armindo Escalda
13/92
AUCTIONING INCENTIVE CONTRACTS: THE COMMON COST CASE
— Fernando Branco
14/92
INDEXED DEBT AND PRODUCTION EFFICIENCY
— António S. Mello, John Parsons
15/92
“TESTING” FOR MEAN AND VARIANCE BREAKS WITH DEPENDENT DATA
— José A. F. Machado
16/92
COINTEGRATION AND DYNAMIC SPECIFICATION
— Carlos Robalo Marques
17/92
FIRM GROWTH DURING INFANCY
— José Mata
18/92
THE DISTRIBUTION OF HOUSEHOLD INCOME AND EXPENDITURE IN PORTUGAL: 1980
and 1990
— Miguel Gouveia, José Tavares
19/92
THE DESIGN OF MULTIDIMENSIONAL AUCTIONS
— Fernando Branco
20/92
MARGINAL INCOME TAX RATES AND ECONOMIC GROWTH IN DEVELOPING
COUNTRIES
— Sérgio Rebelo, William Easterly
21/92
THE EFFECT OF DEMAND AND TECHNOLOGICAL CONDITIONS ON THE LIFE
EXPECTANCY OF NEW FIRMS
— José Mata, Pedro Portugal
22/92
TRANSITIONAL DYNAMICS AND ECONOMIC GROWTH IN THE NEOCLASSICAL MODEL
— Robert G. King, Sérgio Rebelo
23/92
AN INTEGRATED MODEL OF MULTINATIONAL FLEXIBILITY AND FINANCIAL HEDGING
— António S. Mello, Alexander J. Triantis
24/92
CHOOSING AN AGGREGATE FOR MONETARY POLICY: A COINTEGRATION APPROACH
— Carlos Robalo Marques, Margarida Catalão Lopes
25/92
INVESTMENT: CREDIT CONSTRAINTS, REGULATED INTEREST RATES AND
EXPECTATIONS OF FINANCIAL LIBERALIZATION - THE PORTUGUESE EXPERIENCE
— Koleman Strumpf
1/93
SUNK COSTS AND THE DYNAMICS OF ENTRY
— José Mata
2/93
POLICY, TECHNOLOGY ADOPTION AND GROWTH
— William Easterly, Robert King, Ross Levine, Sérgio Rebelo
3/93
OPTIMAL AUCTIONS OF A DIVISIBLE GOOD
— Fernando Branco
4/93
EXCHANGE RATE EXPECTATIONS IN INTERNATIONAL OLIGOLOPY
— Luís Cabral, António S. Mello
5/93
A MODEL OF BRANCHING WITH AN APPLICATION TO PORTUGUESE BANKING
— Luís Cabral, W. Robert Majure
6/93
HOW DOES NEW FIRM SURVIVAL VARY ACROSS INDUSTRIES AND TIME?
— José Mata, Pedro Portugal
7/93
DO NOISE TRADERS “CREATE THEIR OWN SPACE”?
— Ravi Bhushan, David P. Brown, António S. Mello
8/93
MARKET POWER MEASUREMENT – AN APPLICATION TO THE PORTUGUESE CREDIT
MARKET
— Margarida Catalão Lopes
9/93
CURRENCY SUBSTITUTABILITY AS A SOURCE OF INFLATIONARY DISCIPLINE
— Pedro Teles
10/93
BUDGET IMPLICATIONS OF MONETARY COORDINATION IN THE EUROPEAN
COMMUNITY
— Pedro Teles
11/93
THE DETERMINANTS OF FIRM START-UP SIZE
— José Mata
12/93
FIRM START-UP SIZE: A CONDITIONAL QUANTILE APPROACH
— José Mata, José A. F. Machado
13/93
FISCAL POLICY AND ECONOMIC GROWTH: AN EMPIRICAL INVESTIGATION
— William Easterly, Sérgio Rebelo
14/93
BETA ESTIMATION IN THE PORTUGUESE THIN STOCK MARKET
— Armindo Escalda
15/93
SHOULD CAPITAL INCOME BE TAXED IN THE STEADY STATE?
— Isabel H. Correia
16/93
BUSINESS CYCLES IN A SMALL OPEN ECONOMY
— Isabel H. Correia, João C. Neves, Sérgio Rebelo
17/93
OPTIMAL TAXATION AND CAPITAL MOBILITY
— Isabel H. Correia
18/93
A COMPOSITE COINCIDENT INDICATOR FOR THE PORTUGUESE ECONOMY
— Francisco Craveiro Dias
19/93
PORTUGUESE PRICES BEFORE 1947: INCONSISTENCY BETWEEN THE OBSERVED
COST OF LIVING INDEX AND THE GDP PRICE ESTIMATION OF NUNES, MATA AND
VALÉRIO (1989)
— Paulo Soares Esteves
20/93
EVOLUTION OF PORTUGUESE EXPORT MARKET SHARES (1981-91)
— Cristina Manteu, Ildeberta Abreu
1/94
PROCUREMENT FAVORITISM AND TECHNOLOGY ADOPTION
— Fernando Branco
2/94
WAGE RIGIDITY AND JOB MISMATCH IN EUROPE: SOME EVIDENCE
— Sílvia Luz, Maximiano Pinheiro
3/94
A CORRECTION OF THE CURRENT CONSUMPTION INDICATOR – AN APPLICATION OF
THE INTERVENTION ANALYSIS APPROACH
— Renata Mesquita
4/94
PORTUGUESE GDP AND ITS DEFLATOR BEFORE 1947: A REVISION OF THE DATA
PRODUCED BY NUNES, MATA AND VALÉRIO (1989)
— Carlos Robalo Marques, Paulo Soares Esteves
5/94
EXCHANGE RATE RISK IN THE EMS AFTER THE WIDENING OF THE BANDS
IN AUGUST 1993
— Joaquim Pires Pina
6/94
FINANCIAL CONSTRAINTS AND FIRM POST-ENTRY PERFORMANCE
— Paulo Brito, António S. Mello
7/94
STRUCTURAL VAR ESTIMATION WITH EXOGENEITY RESTRICTIONS
— Francisco C. Dias, José A. F. Machado, Maximiano R. Pinheiro
8/94
TREASURY BILL AUCTIONS WITH UNINFORMED BIDDERS
— Fernando Branco
9/94
AUCTIONS OF SHARES WITH A SECONDARY MARKET AND TENDER OFFERS
— António S. Mello, John E. Parsons
10/94
MONEY AS AN INTERMEDIATE GOOD AND THE WELFARE COST OF THE INFLATION
TAX
— Isabel Correia, Pedro Teles
11/94
THE STABILITY OF PORTUGUESE RISK MEASURES
— Armindo Escalda
1/95
THE SURVIVAL OF NEW PLANTS: START-UP CONDITIONS AND POST-ENTRY
EVOLUTION
— José Mata, Pedro Portugal, Paulo Guimarães
2/95
MULTI-OBJECT AUCTIONS: ON THE USE OF COMBINATIONAL BIDS
— Fernando Branco
3/95
AN INDEX OF LEADING INDICATORS FOR THE PORTUGUESE ECONOMY
— Francisco Ferreira Gomes
4/95
IS THE FRIEDMAN RULE OPTIMAL WHEN MONEY IS AN INTERMEDIATE GOOD?
— Isabel Correia, Pedro Teles
5/95
HOW DO NEW FIRM STARTS VARY ACROSS INDUSTRIES AND OVER TIME?
— José Mata
6/95
PROCUREMENT FAVORITISM IN HIGH TECHNOLOGY
— Fernando Branco
7/95
MARKETS, ENTREPRENEURS AND THE SIZE OF NEW FIRMS
— José Mata
1/96
CONVERGENCE ACROSS EU COUNTRIES: INFLATION AND SAVINGS RATES ON
PHYSICAL AND HUMAN CAPITAL
— Paulo Soares Esteves
2/96
THE OPTIMAL INFLATION TAX
— Isabel Correia, Pedro Teles
3/96
FISCAL RULES OF INCOME TRANSFORMATION
— Isabel H. Correia
4/96
ON THE EFFICIENCY AND EQUITY TRADE-OFF
— Isabel H. Correia
5/96
DISTRIBUTIONAL EFFECTS OF THE ELIMINATION OF CAPITAL TAXATION
— Isabel H. Correia
6/96
LOCAL DYNAMICS FOR SPHERICAL OPTIMAL CONTROL PROBLEMS
— Paulo Brito
7/96
A MONEY DEMAND FUNCTION FOR PORTUGAL
— João Sousa
8/96
COMPARATIVE EXPORT BEHAVIOUR OF FOREIGN AND DOMESTIC FIRMS IN
PORTUGAL
— Sónia Cabral
9/96
PUBLIC CAPITAL ACCUMULATION AND PRIVATE SECTOR PERFORMANCE IN THE US
— Alfredo Marvão Pereira, Rafael Flores de Frutos
10/96
IMPORTED CAPITAL AND DOMESTIC GROWTH: A COMPARISON BETWEEN EAST ASIA
AND LATIN AMERICA
— Ling-ling Huang, Alfredo Marvão Pereira
11/96
ON THE EFFECTS OF PUBLIC AND PRIVATE R&D
— Robert B. Archibald, Alfredo Marvão Pereira
12/96
EXPORT GROWTH AND DOMESTIC PERFORMANCE
— Alfredo Marvão Pereira, Zhenhui Xu
13/96
INFRASTRUCTURES AND PRIVATE SECTOR PERFORMANCE IN SPAIN
— Alfredo Marvão Pereira, Oriol Roca Sagales
14/96
PUBLIC INVESTMENT AND PRIVATE SECTOR PERFORMANCE: INTERNATIONAL
EVIDENCE
— Alfredo Marvão Pereira, Norman Morin
15/96
COMPETITION POLICY IN PORTUGAL
— Pedro P. Barros, José Mata
16/96
THE IMPACT OF FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENT IN THE PORTUGUESE ECONOMY
Luísa Farinha, José Mata
17/96
THE TERM STRUCTURE OF INTEREST RATES: A COMPARISON OF ALTERNATIVE
ESTIMATION METHODS WITH AN APPLICATION TO PORTUGAL
— Nuno Cassola, Jorge Barros Luís
18/96
SHORT-AND LONG-TERM JOBLESSNESS: A SEMI-PARAMETRIC MODEL WITH
TIME -VARYING EFFECTS
— Pedro Portugal, John T. Addison
19/96
SOME SPECIFICATION ISSUES IN UNEMPLOYMENT DURATION ANALYSIS
— Pedro Portugal, John T. Addison
20/96
SEQUENTIAL AUCTIONS WITH SYNERGIES: AN EXAMPLE
— Fernando Branco
21/96
HEDGING WINNER’S CURSE WITH MULTIPLE BIDS: EVIDENCE FROM THE PORTUGUESE
TREASURY BILL AUCTION
— Michael B. Gordy
22/96
THE BRICKS OF AN EMPIRE 1415-1999: 585 YEARS OF PORTUGUESE EMIGRATION
— Stanley L. Engerman, João César das Neves
1/97
LOCAL DYNAMICS FOR PLANAR OPTIMAL CONTROL PROBLEMS: A COMPLETE
CHARACTERIZATION
— Paulo Brito
2/97
INTERNATIONAL PORTFOLIO CHOICE
— Bernardino Adão, Nuno Ribeiro
3/97
UNEMPLOYMENT INSURANCE AND JOBLESSNESS: A DISCRETE DURATION MODEL
WITH MULTIPLE DESTINATIONS
— Pedro Portugal, John T. Addison
4/97
THE TREASURY BILL MARKET IN PORTUGAL: INSTITUTIONAL ISSUES AND PROFIT
MARGINS OF FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS
— Bernardino Adão, Jorge Barros Luís
5/97
ECONOMETRIC MODELLING OF THE SHORT-TERM INTEREST RATE: AN APPLICATION
TO PORTUGAL
— Nuno Cassola, João Nicolau, João Sousa
6/97
ESTIMATION OF THE NAIRU FOR THE PORTUGUESE ECONOMY
— Carlos Robalo Marques, Susana Botas
7/97
EXTRACTION OF INTEREST RATE DIFFERENTIALS IMPLICIT IN OPTIONS:
THE CASE OF SPAIN AND ITALY IN THE EUROPEAN MONETARY UNION
— Bernardino Adão, Jorge Barros Luís
1/98
A COMPARATIVE STUDY OF THE PORTUGUESE AND SPANISH LABOUR MARKETS
— Olympia Bover, Pilar García-Perea, Pedro Portugal
2/98
EARNING FUNCTIONS IN PORTUGAL 1982-1994: EVIDENCE FROM QUANTILE
REGRESSIONS
— José A. F. Machado, José Mata
3/98
WHAT HIDES BEHIND AN UNEMPLOYMENT RATE: COMPARING PORTUGUESE
AND US UNEMPLOYMENT
— Olivier Blanchard, Pedro Portugal
4/98
UNEMPLOYMENT INSURANCE AND JOBLESSNESS IN PORTUGAL
— Pedro Portugal, John T. Addison
5/98
EMU, EXCHANGE RATE VOLATILITY AND BID-ASK SPREADS
— Nuno Cassola, Carlos Santos
6/98
CONSUMER EXPENDITURE AND COINTEGRATION
— Carlos Robalo Marques, Pedro Duarte Neves
7/98
ON THE TIME-VARYING EFFECTS OF UNEMPLOYMENT INSURANCE ON JOBLESSNESS
— John T. Addison, Pedro Portugal
8/98
JOB SEARCH METHODS AND OUTCOMES
— John T. Addison, Pedro Portugal
1/99
PRICE STABILITY AND INTERMEDIATE TARGETS FOR MONETARY POLICY
— Vítor Gaspar, Ildeberta Abreu
2/99
THE OPTIMAL MIX OF TAXES ON MONEY, CONSUMPTION AND INCOME
— Fiorella De Fiore, Pedro Teles
3/99
OPTIMAL EXECUTIVE COMPENSATION: BONUS, GOLDEN PARACHUTES, STOCK
OWNERSHIP AND STOCK OPTIONS
— Chongwoo Choe
4/99
SIMULATED LIKELIHOOD ESTIMATION OF NON-LINEAR DIFFUSION PROCESSES
THROUGH NON-PARAMETRIC PROCEDURE WITH AN APPLICATION TO THE
PORTUGUESE INTEREST RATE
— João Nicolau
5/99
IBERIAN FINANCIAL INTEGRATION
—Bernardino Adão
6/99
CLOSURE AND DIVESTITURE BY FOREIGN ENTRANTS: THE IMPACT OF ENTRY AND
POST-ENTRY STRATEGIES
— José Mata, Pedro Portugal
1/00
UNEMPLOYMENT DURATION: COMPETING AND DEFECTIVE RISKS
— John T. Addison, Pedro Portugal
2/00
THE ESTIMATION OF RISK PREMIUM IMPLICIT IN OIL PRICES
— Jorge Barros Luís
3/00
EVALUATING CORE INFLATION INDICATORS
— Carlos Robalo Marques, Pedro Duarte Neves, Luís Morais Sarmento
4/00
LABOR MARKETS AND KALEIDOSCOPIC COMPARATIVE ADVANTAGE
— Daniel A. Traça
5/00
WHY SHOULD CENTRAL BANKS AVOID THE USE OF THE UNDERLYING INFLATION
INDICATOR?
— Carlos Robalo Marques, Pedro Duarte Neves, Afonso Gonçalves da Silva
6/00
USING THE ASYMMETRIC TRIMMED MEAN AS A CORE INFLATION INDICATOR
— Carlos Robalo Marques, João Machado Mota
1/01
THE SURVIVAL OF NEW DOMESTIC AND FOREIGN OWNED FIRMS
— José Mata, Pedro Portugal
2/01
GAPS AND TRIANGLES
— Bernardino Adão, Isabel Correia, Pedro Teles