ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENTS
IN PORTUGUESE-SPEAKING
AFRICAN COUNTRIES AND TIMOR-LESTE
2011 | 2012
Available at
www.bportugal.pt
Banco de Portugal
EUROSYSTEM
BANCO DE PORTUGAL
Av. Almirante Reis, 71
1150-012 Lisboa
www bportugal.pt
Edition
International Relations Department
Design and printing
Administrative Services Department
Lisbon, 2012
ISSN 2182-9837 (on-line)
CONTENTS
5
FOREWORD
7
I. INTERNATIONAL ENVIRONMENT
15
II. ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENTS IN PORTUGUESE-SPEAKING
AFRICAN COUNTRIES AND TIMOR-LESTE
17
Angola
37
Cape Verde
57
Guinea-Bissau
77
Mozambique
97
São Tomé and Príncipe
Timor-Leste
117
135
III. ECONOMIC AND FINANCIAL RELATIONS OF PORTUGAL WITH
PORTUGUESE-SPEAKING AFRICAN COUNTRIES AND TIMOR-LESTE
137
III.1. Portugal’s trade relations and balances of payments with
Portuguese-speaking African countries and Timor-Leste
143
III.2. Bilateral direct investment with Portuguese-speaking African
countries and Timor-Leste
147
III.3. Debt of Portuguese-speaking African countries to Portugal
foreword
Foreword
5
As in previous years, the publication ‘Economic Developments in Portuguese-speaking African Countries
and Timor-Leste’ aims to contribute to a better knowledge of current economic conditions in the
Portuguese-speaking African Countries and Timor-Leste, focusing both on key macroeconomic data and
their economic and financial relations with Portugal.
Chapters II and III were prepared on the basis of information received up to the end of August 2012. In
some cases, this information corresponds to preliminary data or estimates which may be revised.
We thank the entities contacted for their kind cooperation, in particular the Central Banks of Angola,
Cape Verde, Mozambique and São Tomé and Príncipe, the national branch of the Banque Centrale des
États de l'Afrique de l'Ouest (Central Bank of West African States) in Guinea-Bissau and the Central
Bank of Timor-Leste. Their assistance was crucial in obtaining the information needed to prepare this
report.
October 2012
INTERNATIONAL
ENVIRONMENT
I
Current environment and outlook
Throughout 2011 and 2012 the worldwide recovery continued, although the encouraging signs
I
second quarter of 2012 while uncertainties heightened, in a context of several risks pointing to a
9
greater slowdown or even decline in activity. This dampening of world growth was broadly based across
all regions (Chart I.1.).
Confidence in the global financial system has been decreasing and markets continue to experience
strong volatility. This period is characterised by unusually high uncertainty, together with an
unprecedented level of trade and financial interconnection and integration.
The crisis in the euro area continued to impact on the region, with output, both in this area and in
Europe as a whole, contracting in the first half of 2012. The interconnection between the public,
banking/financial and real sectors translated into sharp increases of risk premia in many member
countries and financing costs for sovereigns and the private sector, therefore increasing pressure on an
already fragile banking sector. Monetary and financial market fragmentation within the euro area
deteriorated strongly, with investors shifting their asset portfolio in euro to investments in central and
northern Europe. This contributed to a vicious circle of growing financing difficulties for the most
vulnerable euro area countries. With a view to safeguarding monetary policy singleness and
transmission mechanisms, affected by distortions in securities markets, on 6 September the ECB
adopted a programme of outright transactions in secondary sovereign bond markets. A necessary
condition for Outright Monetary Transactions is strict and effective conditionality attached to an
appropriate European Financial Stability Facility/European Stability Mechanism (EFSF/ESM) programme.
Such programmes can take the form of a full EFSF/ESM macroeconomic adjustment programme or a
precautionary programme.
The US and Japan are facing marked medium-term fiscal consolidation needs and it is imperative that
authorities design specific and reliable plans for such adjustment, ensuring agents’ confidence and
credibility. On the other hand, in the short term the US will have to reach an agreement as to policy
measures for the 2013 budget (the ‘fiscal cliff’ issue) and/or possibly enact again legislation governing
the lifting of the debt ceiling.
In the major advanced economies the fragile environment translates into the persistence of high
unemployment rates, jointly with low investment levels. The effects of this environment are clearly
visible in a slowdown in external trade of goods and services.
Emerging economies face the current global uncertainty climate and a clear decline in external demand.
China was particularly affected, with consequences for the Asian economies as a whole, due to the
strong interconnection of these countries’ industrial chains, which have deepened over the last decade.
As this region has already achieved high financial integration with the major advanced economies, the
spillover effects have extended to financial markets, namely stock exchanges. Greater external exposure
rendered the region more sensitive to international financial tensions and may even have passed
through to exchange rates (e.g. recent yen appreciation). This environment, associated with more
moderate pressures on prices, has allowed many countries to change the monetary policy stance, so as
to support activity. The outcome of these policy changes has not yet been felt. On the other hand, the
slight economic slowdown in China, and more generally in Asia, has had repercussions on financial
markets, especially in emerging and commodity exporting developing countries.
Latin America also decelerated in the first half of 2012. As in Asia, monetary policy started to be more
accommodative and expansionary. Growth is expected to recover in 2013, driven by greater buoyancy
in Brazil. In the past decade Latin America benefited from strong demand for commodities, such as
International environment
of late 2011 and early 2012 did not prove to be sustainable. The rebound slowed down in the
high prices for the main commodities, good crops and strong emigrants’ remittances. Energy-importing
countries from the Community of Independent States decelerated markedly.
widened. In the latter, social instability translated into abrupt drops in tourism and foreign direct
investment. Oil-exporting countries stepped up their growth pace (except for Iran).
As mentioned above, Asia and Latin America were affected by the weak advanced economies at the
trade and financial level. Despite the more moderate pace than in 2010, emerging and developing
Asian countries grew by 7.6% in 2011. Growth in Latin America and the Caribbean, which had shown
signs of overheating in 2010, moderated significantly in 2011: This slowdown was partly the, result of
restrictive measures adopted to contain inflationary pressures, an easing that continued in 2012.
Employment in the region has been rising sustainably and commodity-exporting countries are growing
at their potential rate or even slightly above it.
Sub-Saharan Africa
Sub-Saharan Africa expanded by more than 5% in 2010 and 2011, a rate likely to continue in
2012. Institutional progress in the past decade and the greater robustness of macroeconomic
fundamentals provided these countries with leeway to respond to the external shocks of the past few
years. The diversification of exports to new markets, namely in Asia, reduced their exposure to fragile
demand by advanced countries and the high commodity prices benefited exporters of these products
and investment in mining and quarrying. However, the region was undermined by a reduction in
foreign direct investment by advanced economies, in particular Europe.
Banking systems showed strong resilience to financial turbulence episodes. Possible pressures on
liquidity, credit quality and profitability arose from indirect channels, chiefly the impact of the crisis on
external trade.
Oil exporting countries as a whole continued to grow strongly, by approximately 6% in 2012 (6.3% in
2011), fostered in some countries, such as Angola, by a rise in energy production capacity.
Simultaneously, in many of these countries – Angola and Nigeria are good examples – the non-oil sector
has been evolving at a record pace in the past few years.
In the polar opposite scenario, some low-income countries were affected by extreme drought. However,
most of these countries have been growing robustly.
Average-income countries, in particular South Africa, have suffered a greater impact from the financial
crisis in Europe, with a decline in foreign direct investment and foreign demand.
Despite the progress in reducing poverty, the region has recorded slow progress in terms of the
Millennium Development Goals. Tension and recession in advanced economies may compromise grant
flows for the next few years.
11 October 2012
I
13
International environment
In the Middle East and Northern Africa differences between oil exporting and importing countries
II.1.1. SUMMARY
The macroeconomic adjustment programme agreed at the end of 2009 between the Angolan
II
provided by this institution to any Sub-Saharan country) was successfully completed in February 2012.
19
Indeed, the substantial fiscal and external imbalances – indirectly induced by the international crisis –
that had led to a severe domestic liquidity crisis and, therefore, to the need for an adjustment
programme, have been fully corrected. The programme’s satisfactory completion has manifestly
resulted from a broadly successful implementation of economic policy measures prescribed in the
programme, but also largely benefited from the contribution of increased oil revenue – reflecting the
upward trend (and stabilisation at high levels) in international oil prices since 2009.
Table II.1.1.
MAIN ECONOMIC INDICATORS
2009
Est.
Real GDP (annual rate of change)
2010
Est.
2011
Prog.
2011
Est.
2012
Prog.
2013
Prog.
5.0
2.4
3.4
6.4
3.1
6.8
Inflation (year-on-year rate of change)
14.0
15.3
10.8
11.4
9.6
7.5
Broad money (annual rate of change)
21.5
7.1
37.8
34.0
14.7
38.1
Current account (as a percentage of GDP)
-10.0
9.0
-4.8
10.8
7.3
4.4
Overall fiscal balance (as a percentage of GDP)
-7.4
5.5
4.5
10.3
2.4
1.7
External debt (as a percentage of GDP)
20.0
21.6
19.9
19.8
19.5
20.4
Sources: Banco Nacional de Angola, Ministry of Finance of Angola and IMF.
These developments in the world oil market resulted in a considerable improvement in Angola’s terms
of trade (nearly 50%, in cumulative terms, during 2010-2011), which generated surpluses that
sustained domestic demand throughout the adjustment period. Therefore, the pace of expansion in
economic activity continued to be relatively robust between 2009 and 2011, although below the
previous levels – also due to a drop in oil production (which is now being reversed). In turn,
developments have been clearly positive as regards nominal stabilisation, particularly since mid-2011 –
with year-on-year inflation falling over thirteen consecutive months up to August 2012, when it
dropped to 9.9% (i.e. single-digit levels for the first time since a comprehensive price liberalisation
reform was implemented, over 20 years ago).
The nominal increase in oil exports amounted to 33% in 2011 (on top of a 24% increase in the
previous year), while imports of goods and services recovered from falls in 2010, but at a more subdued
pace than exports. This led to further significant strengthening in the external position, which was
reflected in the balance of payments, and, ultimately, resulted in a marked recovery of foreign exchange
reserves. These reserves are now comfortably higher than external debt (which actually declined as a
percentage of GDP, for the first time since 2007), providing considerable leeway for Banco Nacional de
Angola to intervene in the foreign exchange market.
Such interventions continue to be the central bank’s main instrument when pursuing its price
stabilisation goals and have now been supplemented by a new monetary policy framework, following
the recent introduction of several innovations. Indeed, liquidity expansion in the economy accelerated in
2011 (although it would then slow down substantially in the first half of 2012), despite the dampening
effect of a strong contraction in net claims on government. This reflected the marked fiscal
consolidation over the 2010-2011 period (amounting to 17.7 percentage points of GDP), largely
sustained by the increase in oil revenue but also a considerable expenditure restraint, despite the fiscal
space created by that increase.
Angola
authorities and the IMF (involving funding to the amount of USD 1.4 billion, i.e. the largest amount ever
This shows that the substantial cut in subsidies on domestic fuel prices in September 2010 only had a
temporary impact (with relevant first-, second- and third-round effects on the CPI). In fact, discounting
II
BANCO DE PORTUGAL | ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENTS IN PORTUGUESE-SPEAKING AFRICAN COUNTRIES AND TIMOR-LESTE 2011/2012
22
the seasonal effect of price increases towards the end of 2011 (which is typical during the holiday
period), inflation seems to have begun a favourable trend, which should make it possible, in particular,
to meet the goals established for December 2012. As for a lengthening of the disinflationary process to
levels closer to those in major external partners (which would have positive effects in terms of pricecompetitiveness), it will undoubtedly depend on the maintenance of fiscal and monetary rigour, but
also, to some extent, the Angolan authorities’ efforts to overcome several constraints traditionally
identified on the supply side (from logistics to competition issues).
II.1.3. EXTERNAL ACCOUNTS
The macroeconomic adjustment process launched by the Angolan authorities at the end of 2009,
in the context of the IMF-supported programme, yielded particularly significant results on the
external side, with a substantial correction of imbalances that started in 2010, intensifying in 2011 and
consolidating in 2012. These favourable developments were clearly reflected in the balance of
payments, most notably the sizeable trade and current account surpluses (see Table II.1.2.), as well as
their consequence: gross foreign exchange reserves amounting to USD 32.6 billion in June 2012, which
is equivalent to 8.9 months of imports of goods and services estimated in 2011 (compared with 7.8
months at the end of 2011 and 3.8 months in 2009).
Table II.1.2.
BALANCE OF PAYMENTS | As a percentage of GDP
2009
Est.
2010
Est.
2011
Prog.
2011
Est.
2012
Prog.
2013
Prog.
Current account
-10.0
9.0
-4.8
10.8
7.3
4.4
Trade balance
24.0
41.1
27.6
45.2
39.5
33.6
53.9
61.3
55.7
64.7
59.5
54.4
52.5
59.8
54.0
63.3
58.3
53.1
-29.9
-20.2
-28.2
-19.5
-20.0
-20.8
-33.5
-31.6
-31.9
-33.9
-31.7
-28.8
-0.7
-0.6
0.0
-0.7
0.0
0.0
-8.1
-9.1
0.0
-10.8
0.0
0.0
-0.5
-0.5
-0.5
-0.5
-0.5
-0.4
3.9
-1.7
6.2
-2.5
-4.1
-1.7
2.9
-5.5
-2.5
-6.1
7.3
3.2
1.4
-2.7
3.3
0.5
2.6
Exports
of which: Oil exports
Imports
Services and income
of which: Debt interest
Dividends and profits
Current transfers
Capital and financial account
of which: Foreign direct investment
Overall balance
8.3
Sources: Banco Nacional de Angola and IMF.
This substantial adjustment resulted, in part, from an effort to curb government expenditure, which was
reflected in a moderation in imports (particularly imports of goods in 2010). Paramount to this process
were, however, very favourable developments in terms of trade in 2010 and 2011: gains amounting to
19.6% and 24.1% respectively (by contrast with a 28.3% decrease in the previous year). In turn, terms
of trade mainly reflected an upward trend (and maintenance of high levels) in international oil prices
since 2009: OPEC’s reference price reached a peak of USD 140.73 per barrel in July 2008, fell to a low
of USD 33.36 at the end of 2008, ended 2009 at USD 77.16, reached USD 106.84 towards the end of
2011 and stood at USD 109.68 on 28 September 2012. This price effect offset a continued fall in oil
production since 2008, thus making it possible for oil exports to reach a new nominal peak in 2011
much more marked changes from the previous year across all main debit items, most notably the
largest one – dividends and profits (particularly in the oil sector), with a nominal increase of 48.2%.
II
BANCO DE PORTUGAL | ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENTS IN PORTUGUESE-SPEAKING AFRICAN COUNTRIES AND TIMOR-LESTE 2011/2012
24
With regard to financial operations, net direct investment remained in negative territory in 2011, for the
second year in a row, reflecting a slowdown in inflows (which, however, will now tend to be gradually
reversed) and particularly an increase in investment abroad by Angolan residents. By contrast, loan
disbursements strengthened further, which led external debt to a new peak at the end of 2011, in both
absolute and nominal terms. However, this was not the case as a percentage of GDP, given that this
indicator fell for the first time in four years (in contrast to developments in foreign exchange reserves –
see Chart II.1.6.).
II.1.4. PUBLIC FINANCES
The Angolan adjustment programme was largely based on the advancement of fiscal
consolidation, which is seen as a key element for the correction of macroeconomic imbalances
generated by the impact of the international crisis. This consolidation process was greatly facilitated
by favourable international oil price developments, with a very positive impact on the State’s oil revenue
(corresponding to 78% of total revenues, on average, in the 2007-2011 period). As such, this oil
revenue contributed significantly to a strengthening of the fiscal position between 2009 and 2011: a
total adjustment equivalent to 17.7 percentage points of GDP (in terms of the overall balance on a
commitment basis – see Table II.1.3.).
Table II.1.3.
BUDGET EXECUTION | As a percentage of GDP
2009
Est.
2010 2011
Est. Budg.
2011 2012
Est. Budg.
2012
Proj.
2013
Prog.
34.6
43.5
40.2
49.1
34.5
44.9
41.3
24.2
33.0
30.3
39.3
23.5
34.4
29.7
41.9
37.9
35.6
38.8
32.1
38.8
39.6
29.5
28.3
26.5
30.1
23.7
29.8
29.6
11.1
9.4
10.3
9.0
9.7
9.7
10.6
Goods and services
6.4
8.2
8.1
10.6
7.8
10.6
10.6
Interest
1.7
1.2
1.8
1.0
1.0
1.0
1.0
10.3
9.5
6.4
9.5
5.1
8.4
7.4
12.4
9.7
9.1
8.7
8.5
9.0
10.0
-7.4
5.5
4.5
10.3
2.4
6.1
1.7
Total revenue
of which: Oil revenue
Total expenditure
Current expenditure
Compensation of employees
Transfers and subsidies
Capital expenditure
Overall balance (commitment basis)
Sources: Banco Nacional de Angola, Ministry of Finance of Angola and IMF.
It should be noted, however, that this adjustment was more marked than if it had merely resulted from
the fiscal space created by higher oil revenue (which increased from 24.2% of GDP in 2009 to 39.3% in
2011). In fact, the authorities’ commitment to fiscal consolidation was made particularly clear by
expenditure retrenchment (with expenditure dropping by 3.1 percentage points of GDP during that
two-year period) and non-oil revenue-enhancing measures. It follows that, in particular, the deficit
excluding oil revenue, as a percentage of non-oil GDP, is likely to have dropped in 2010 to its lowest
level since the beginning of the millennium. Also noteworthy was a settlement of arrears to suppliers
(mainly completed in 2011), which had reached approximately 9% of GDP in 2009, causing at that time
significant disruptions to the smooth functioning of the economy.
On the basis of projections prepared towards the middle of the year (which may yet prove to be
conservative, given developments in the third quarter), fiscal prospects for 2012 indicate that the fiscal
Table A.II.1.1.
MAIN ECONOMIC INDICATORS
Units
2008
Est.
2009 2010
2011
Est.
Est. Prog.
Est.
2012
Est.
Prog.
2013
Prog.
AOK billions
6,316
5,989
7,580
EUR billions
57.2
54.3
62.1
8,879
9,724 10,897
11,753
74.4
USD billions
84.2
75.7
82.5
90.0
103.7
112.7
118.0
annual % change
13.8
2.4
3.4
6.4
3.1
6.8
5.0
Oil sector
annual % change
12.3
-5.1
-3.0
3.8
-5.5
8.5
3.0
Other sectors
annual % change
15.0
8.3
7.8
8.1
8.5
6.0
6.1
Real GDP
Inflation (CPI-Luanda)
y-o-y % change
13.2
14.0
15.3
10.8
11.4
9.6
9.9 Aug
7.5
avg. % change
12.5
13.7
14.5
12.0
13.5
10.8
10.9 Aug
8.6
% of GDP
50.9
34.6
43.5
40.2
49.1
34.5
41.3
% of GDP
41.2
24.2
33.0
30.3
39.3
23.5
29.7
PUBLIC FINANCES
Total revenue
Oil revenue
(a)
% of GDP
55.4
41.9
37.9
35.6
38.8
32.1
39.6
Current expenditure
% of GDP
32.1
29.5
28.3
26.5
30.1
23.7
29.6
Capital expenditure
% of GDP
23.3
12.4
9.7
9.1
8.7
8.5
10.0
Overall balance (commitment basis)
% of GDP
-4.5
-7.4
5.5
4.5
10.3
2.4
1.7
Overall balance (cash basis)
% of GDP
-5.6
-8.6
5.5
-1.2
11.9
2.4
1.7
Total expenditure
MONEY AND CREDIT
Net foreign assets
annual % change
43.7
-23.8
50.4
10.2
71.0
29.3
41.1 Jun
30.6
Credit to the economy
annual % change
66.8
55.4
25.8
39.0
28.6
15.1
29.7 Jun
15.9
Broad money (M3)
annual % change
103.9
21.5
7.1
37.8
34.0
14.7
20.0 Jun
38.1
Credit in national cur.(b) (180 d)
annual rate
12.0
15.6
19.0
18.1
17.7 Jun
Deposits in national cur. (180 d)
annual rate
12.5
12.6
10.0
6.7
3.8 Jun
INTEREST RATES
Deposits in foreign cur. (180 d)
annual rate
4.8
4.9
7.2
2.7
2.4 Jun
Central bank bills (63 d)
annual rate
14.1
20.6
10.0
7.2
3.2 Jun
Treasury bills (182 d)
annual rate
14.9
23.3
11.6
4.8
3.6 Jun
Treasury bonds(c) (3-year)
annual rate
2.3
5.5
7.0
7.0
7.3 Jun
Exports (current USD)
annual % change
44.0
-36.1
23.9
-0.9
32.6
0.0
Imports (current USD)
annual % change
53.6
8.0
-26.4
52.1
21.4
11.6
8.5
% of GDP
51.0
24.0
41.1
27.6
45.2
39.5
33.6
8.5
-10.0
9.0
-4.8
10.8
7.3
4.4
BALANCE OF PAYMENTS
Trade balance
Current account
Foreign reserves (gross)
% of GDP
-4.3
USD millions
17,911 13,238 19,444
28,393 31,031 32,624 Jun 34,416
EUR millions
10,065 10,839 13,441
14,698
USD millions
14,800 15,125 17,859 17,900 20,497 21,977
EXTERNAL DEBT
Total external debt
24,072
% of GDP
17.6
20.0
21.6
19.9
19.8
% of exports
3.1
10.6
7.4
7.3
6.5
Bilateral rate EUR / AOK
average rate
110.3
110.3
122.0
130.8
118.3 Jul
Bilateral rate USD / AOK
average rate
75.0
79.1
91.8
93.8
95.4 Jul
Nominal EERI [appreciation: +] (d)
annual % change
-3.0
-5.4
-13.3
-4.9
-0.7 Jul
Real EERI [appreciation: +] (d)
annual % change
4.2
8.1
-3.1
3.6
7.5 Jul
Debt service
19.5
20.4
EXCHANGE RATES
Sources: Banco Nacional de Angola, Ministry of Finance of Angola, IMF and Banco de Portugal calculations.
Notes: (a) Includes, for all years shown, current and capital expenditure incurred by state-owned enterprises (mainly Sonangol) and now included
in the budget (quasi-fiscal operations); (b) Credit granted to enterprises; (c) Bonds issued in AOK but indexed to the USD/AOK exchange
rate; (d) Effective exchange rate index (EERI), calculated on the basis of exchange rates applied to the currencies of the four major trading
partners over the period 2005/2009.
Angola
27
OUTPUT AND PRICES
Nominal GDP
II
Table A.II.1.2.
GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT | Current prices, billions of kwanzas
II
2008
Est.
2009
Est.
2010
Est.
2011
Prog.
Est.
4,055
3,326
4,213
5,638
420
611
746
909
3,635
2,715
3,467
4,730
3,569
2,662
3,396
4,641
66
54
71
89
627
821
1,075
1,346
303
364
464
584
5
7
10
11
319
450
602
751
1,480
1,694
2,103
2,509
1,104
1,240
1,555
1,896
376
454
548
613
6,162
5,841
7,392
9,493
154
147
188
231
6,316
5,989
7,580
Nominal GDPmp (EUR billions)
57.2
54.3
62.1
Nominal GDPmp (USD billions)
84.2
75.7
Nominal GDPmp (in Kz, % annual change)
36.2
-5.2
Real GDP ( % annual change )
2012
Prog.
2013
Prog.
10,897
11,753
BANCO DE PORTUGAL | ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENTS IN PORTUGUESE-SPEAKING AFRICAN COUNTRIES AND TIMOR-LESTE 2011/2012
28
Primary sector
Agriculture, fishing and related products
Mining and quarrying
Oil and gas
Other (incl. diamonds)
Secondary sector
Manufacturing
Electricity and water
Construction
Tertiary sector
Trade and tradable services
Non-tradable services
GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT (at factor costs)
Indirect taxes and subsidies
GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT (market prices)
8,879
9,724
82.5
90.0
103.7
112.7
118.0
26.6
17.1
28.3
12.1
7.9
Memo items:
74.4
13.8
2.4
3.4
6.4
3.1
6.8
5.0
Oil sector
12.3
-5.1
-3.0
3.8
-5.5
8.5
3.0
Other sectors
15.0
8.3
7.8
8.1
8.5
6.0
6.1
Sources: Banco Nacional de Angola, IMF and Banco de Portugal calculations.
Table A.II.1.3.
CONSUMER PRICE INDEX | Per cent
Cumulative
change
[2]
Year-on-year
change
[3]
Average
change
[4]
268.4
116.1
105.6
76.6
31.0
18.5
12.2
11.7
13.2
14.0
15.3
11.4
268.4
116.1
105.6
76.6
31.0
18.5
12.2
11.7
13.2
14.0
15.3
11.4
325.0
152.6
109.0
98.2
43.5
23.0
13.3
12.2
12.5
13.7
14.5
13.5
0.8
0.9
1.0
1.0
1.1
1.0
1.1
1.1
2.4
1.2
1.0
1.6
0.8
1.7
2.8
3.8
4.9
6.0
7.2
8.4
10.9
12.3
13.4
15.3
13.8
13.7
13.8
13.7
13.9
13.7
13.7
14.0
15.7
16.1
15.9
15.3
13.8
13.8
13.8
13.8
13.8
13.8
13.8
13.8
13.9
14.2
14.4
14.5
13.0
15.0
0.6
0.8
0.8
0.9
1.0
1.0
0.7
0.7
0.8
0.8
0.9
1.7
0.6
1.5
2.3
3.2
4.2
5.3
6.1
6.9
7.7
8.5
9.5
11.4
15.1
15.1
14.8
14.6
14.5
14.6
14.1
13.7
11.9
11.4
11.3
11.4
14.6
14.7
14.8
14.8
14.9
14.9
15.0
14.9
14.6
14.2
13.8
13.5
10.8
12.0
0.7
0.7
0.6
0.7
0.6
0.7
0.7
0.6
0.7
1.4
2.0
2.7
3.4
4.1
4.8
5.4
11.5
11.3
11.1
10.9
10.5
10.1
10.0
9.9
13.2
12.9
12.6
12.3
11.9
11.6
11.2
10.9
December (prog.)
9.6
10.8
2013
December (prog.)
7.5
8.6
Sources:
Banco Nacional de Angola, IMF and Banco de Portugal calculations.
[1] month (n) / month (n-1); [2] month (n) / previous December; [3] month (n) / month (n) of the previous
year; [4] last 12 months / previous 12 months.
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
December
December
December
December
December
December
December
December
December
December
December
December
2010
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
2011
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
2012
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
December (prog.)
December (prog.)
Notes:
II
29
Angola
Monthly
change
[1]
Table A.II.1.4.
BALANCE OF PAYMENTS | USD millions
II
BANCO DE PORTUGAL | ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENTS IN PORTUGUESE-SPEAKING AFRICAN COUNTRIES AND TIMOR-LESTE 2011/2012
30
2008
Est.
2009
Est.
2010
Est.
2011
Prog.
Est.
2012
Prog.
2013
Prog.
1. Current account
7,195
-7,572
7,421
-4,320
11,181
8,277
5,170
Merchandise
Exports (f.o.b.)
42,932
18,168
33,928
24,804
46,859
44,485
39,647
Oil sector
of which: crude oil
Diamonds
Other
Imports (f.o.b.)
63,914
40,828
50,595
50,154
67,088
67,059
64,144
62,457
39,803
49,352
48,591
65,591
65,704
62,700
61,666
39,271
48,629
47,913
64,539
64,779
61,718
1,210
814
976
1,238
1,205
1,037
1,110
247
212
267
325
291
318
334
-20,982 -22,660 -16,667 -25,350 -20,228 -22,574 -24,497
Oil sector
Other
-5,713
Services and income
Services (net)
Credit
Debit
-4,326
-5,596
-15,269 -18,546
-19,753
-5,269
-5,441
-17,305 -19,056
-35,527 -25,369 -26,069 -28,702 -35,203 -35,690 -34,013
-21,810 -18,546 -17,898 -19,480 -23,102 -24,302 -23,068
330
623
857
705
530
670
724
-22,139 -19,169 -18,754 -20,185 -23,632 -24,972 -23,792
of which: Transportation and travel
-3,975
-4,288
-3,237
-4,046
Construction
Technical assistance
-5,007
-4,676
-4,643
-5,704
-7,592
-7,114
-6,158
Income (net)
of which: Interest on public debt
-13,718
-6,823
-8,172
Dividends and profits
Current transfers (net)
2. Capital and financial accounts
Capital transfers (net)
Foreign direct investment (net)
of which: Inflows
-8,147
-9,222 -12,101 -11,388 -10,945
-508
-504
-477
-744
-13,185
-6,130
-7,525
-11,151
-210
-370
-438
-422
-475
-518
-464
61
2,956
-1,411
5,566
-2,582
-4,592
-2,050
12
4
1
0
0
1
3
-891
2,199
-4,568
2,919
-2,582
-3,077
597
16,581
11,673
12,157
3,833
561
2,454
2,217
3,355
1,213
2,154
6,955
-4,804
10,535
Medium and long-term loans
Disbursements
Scheduled amortisation
5,277
4,377
5,730
5,862
-1,443
-3,817
-3,276
-3,645
-3,600
Other capital (incl. items in transit, errors and omissions)
-2,893
192
702
430
-3,355
-2,729
7,256
-4,616
6,010
1,246
8,599
3,685
3,120
-7,256
4,616
-6,010
-1,700
-8,599
-3,685
-3,120
-6,673
4,631
-6,101
-1,700
-9,054
-3,685
-3,120
-583
-15
91
0
455
0
0
0
0
0
-454
0
0
0
51.0
24.0
41.1
27.6
45.2
39.5
33.6
8.5
-10.0
9.0
-4.8
10.8
7.3
4.4
3. Overall balance: [ 1 + 2 ]
4. Financing
Change in official reserves (net) [increase: - ]
Exceptional financing
5. Financing gap
Memo items:
Trade balance (as a percentage of GDP)
Current account (as a percentage of GDP)
Sources: Banco Nacional de Angola, IMF and Banco de Portugal calculations.
Table A.II.1.5.
EXTERNAL DEBT AND FOREIGN RESERVES | USD millions
2009
2010
Est.
2011
Prog.
Est.
2012
Prog.
2013
Prog.
II
30,461
28,393
37,895
31,031
48,909
34,416
31
20,497
12,653
11,915
739
6,215
1,629
21,977
24,072
1. Net foreign assets
of which: foreign reserves (gross)
19,750
17,911
12,628
13,238
18,425
19,444
2. Total external debt (including arrears)
14,800
8,504
7,680
824
5,917
379
15,125
9,002
8,114
888
5,386
738
17,859
10,698
9,863
835
5,833
1,329
23.5
16.7
22.3
29.4
33.6
41.4
21.3
17.5
23.6
27.4
27.5
29.2
17.6
20.0
21.6
19.8
19.5
20.4
Commercial
Banking
Enterprises
Official bilateral
Official multilateral
Memo items:
Net foreign assets (% of GDP)
Gross foreign reserves (% of GDP)
Total external debt (% of GDP)
17,900
19.9
Sources: Banco Nacional de Angola, IMF and Banco de Portugal calculations.
Table A.II.1.6.
MERCHANDISE EXPORTS | Products, USD millions ; Destinations, as a percentage of total
2005
TOTAL EXPORTS
Crude oil
Refined oil products and gas
Diamonds
Other
EXPORTS BY DESTINATION (a)
South Africa
Canada
China
United States
France
India
Portugal
Taiwan
Other
2006
2007
2008
2009
Est.
2010
Est.
2011
Est.
2005 to 2011
Est.
24,109 31,862 44,396 63,914 40,828 50,595 67,088
22,583 29,929 42,352 61,666 39,271 48,629 64,539
271
554
652
792
532
722 1,052
1,092 1,155 1,182 1,210
814
976 1,205
163
225
211
247
212
267
292
1.5
6.0
24.8
27.2
7.9
2.3
0.1
4.0
26.1
1.8
5.5
30.1
31.4
3.5
2.0
0.0
5.2
20.5
3.9
5.9
26.4
24.0
5.2
5.5
1.0
4.2
24.0
4.1
5.2
29.7
23.3
5.0
4.3
0.8
2.5
25.1
3.2
5.4
38.5
19.0
7.6
9.4
0.5
2.9
13.5
3.1
5.8
42.8
18.1
3.7
10.1
1.8
4.8
9.8
2.6
8.7
37.5
15.9
3.2
10.7
2.4
8.2
10.8
3.1
6.2
33.7
21.6
4.9
7.0
1.1
4.7
17.7
Sources: Banco Nacional de Angola, IMF and Banco de Portugal calculations.
Note: (a) Crude oil exports only.
Table A.II.1.7.
MERCHANDISE IMPORTS | Products, USD millions ; Origins, as a percentage of total
TOTAL IMPORTS
of which: SNA
(a)
Consumer goods
Intermediate goods
Capital goods
IMPORTS BY ORIGIN
South Africa
Belgium
Brazil
China
United States
Portugal
United Kingdom
Other
2005
2006
2007
2008
8,353
8,778 13,662 20,982 22,660 16,667 20,228
5,664
8,590
5,101
867
2,386
5,229
1,027
2,522
7,898 12,109 13,271 10,746
1,657 2,566 2,770 2,190
4,107 6,308 6,620 4,888
9.6
5.7
7.9
6.8
5.7
18.3
3.9
42.0
8.7
4.8
8.7
9.6
6.4
18.5
3.4
39.8
Sources: Banco Nacional de Angola, IMF and Banco de Portugal calculations.
Note: (a) Data from the National Customs Service of Angola.
5.7
4.5
8.2
10.0
9.1
17.7
3.6
41.3
22,548
2010
Est.
4,147
6.6
5.0
7.7
4.3
11.0
19.3
4.8
41.3
14,828
2009
Est.
3.9
6.4
6.2
7.4
10.7
14.0
4.4
46.9
16,667
4.0
7.3
5.1
8.5
7.4
14.5
5.1
48.1
2011
Est.
2005 to 2011
Est.
20,228
3.8
6.0
4.2
7.6
8.2
15.4
2.9
52.0
5.0
5.9
6.3
7.9
8.9
15.9
4.0
46.2
Angola
2008
Table A.II.1.8.
GOVERNMENT OPERATIONS | Billions of kwanzas
2008 2009
II
Est.
BANCO DE PORTUGAL | ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENTS IN PORTUGUESE-SPEAKING AFRICAN COUNTRIES AND TIMOR-LESTE 2011/2012
32
1. Total revenue
Tax revenue
Oil revenue
Non-oil revenue
Non-tax revenue
Grants
2. Total expenditure(b)
Current expenditure
Est.
2011
2010
Est. Budg.
Est.
l.e. (a) Budg.
2012
2013
Proj.
l.e. (a) Prog.
3,217 2,069 3,295 3,565 4,776
134.0
3,761 4,892
130.1
4,852
3,070 1,988 3,094 3,387 4,528
133.7
3,564 4,696
131.8
4,624
2,602 1,449 2,500 2,691 3,817
141.8
2,560 3,753
146.6
3,492
468
539
594
696
711
102.2
1,004
943
93.9
1,132
145
79
199
176
246
196
196
2
2
2
2
0
0
99.9
0.0
227
2
139.8
95.0
3,499 2,510 2,876 3,164 3,774
119.3
3,501 4,223
120.6
4,653
2,029 1,767 2,143 2,353 2,928
124.4
2,578 3,242
125.7
3,478
1
Compensation of employees
543
665
714
914
877
96.0
1,061 1,061
100.0
1,242
Goods and services
718
383
619
716 1,031
144.0
850 1 153
135.7
1,241
Debt interest
123
103
90
158
94
59.5
111
111
99.6
121
Domestic
14
24
27
104
56
53.8
70
70
99.9
90
External
109
79
63
54
38
70.4
41
41
99.3
31
646
615
720
565
926
163.9
557
917
164.7
874
1,470
743
733
811
846
104.3
922
981
106.4
1,175
-281
-441
419
401 1,002
260
669
Transfers and subsidies
Capital expenditure
3. Overall balance (commitment basis) [ 1 - 2 ]
4. Change in arrears (net)
Domestic(c)
External interest
5. Overall balance (cash basis) [ 3 + 4 ]
6. Financing
Oil signature bonuses
External financing (net)
Disbursements
Amortisation
Government deposits abroad
Domestic financing (net)
Bank financing
Non-bank financing
199
-71
-75
-1
-506
152
0
0
0
-83
-39
-1
-506
152
0
0
0
12
-36
0
0
0
0
0
0
-352
-516
418
-105 1,154
260
669
199
352
516
-418
105 -1,154
-260
-669
-199
0
0
0
0
0
0
145
0
314
95
-15
259
-94
64
-59
-21
446
380
154
186
266
266
253
-131
-269
-138
-135
-203
-203
-174
-16
-31
-145
38
421
-403
-154 -1,060
-456
681
-321
494
-260
-82
-122
-100
-324
-755
-178
-780
0
-551
-178
-280
-324
-204
0
Memo items:
Overall balance, commitment basis (% of GDP)
Excluding oil revenue
-4.5
-7.4
5.5
4.5
10.3
2.4
6.1
1.7
-45.6
-31.6
-27.5
-25.8
-28.9
-21.1
-28.3
-28.0
Sources: Banco Nacional de Angola, Ministry of Finance (Angola), IMF and Banco de Portugal calculations.
Notes: (a) Level of budget execution (%); (b) Includes, for all years shown, current and capital expenditure incurred by state-owned enterprises
(mainly Sonangol) and now included in the budget (quasi-fiscal operations); (c) Net of changes in arrears to suppliers (expenditure) and
changes in Sonangol's arrears to the Treasury (revenue).
669
260
409
244
182
42
140
680
102
517
409
926
733
795
301
1,137
2,158
164
2,322
3,459
3,760
3,760
-509
2,330
67
2,397
1,888
167
-2
1,706
1,704
1,871
2011
Dec
Prog.
151
759
596
1,356
956
986
1,942
209
2,151
3,506
3,657
3,657
-994
2,156
-407
1,748
755
335
82
-220
28
2 705
2 485
2 568
30
2,902
Dec
Est.
44.1
71.0
65.3
-10.1
-1.2
-18.8
17.6
-8.9
34.0
-26.8
-1.9
-485.3
28.6
-32.2
34.0
34.0
11.7
2238.4
34.0
33.5
26.5
21.6
27.0
30.4
23.9
46.4
45.7
46.9
47.6
-1.2
0.1
52.5
54.8
51.0
46.0
18.0
5.0
32.4
32.3
33.5
[2]
[1]
2011/2010
Notes: [1] Percent changes from the end of the previous year; [2] Changes in percent of the initial stock of broad money (expansion/contraction determinants).
Sources: Banco Nacional de Angola, IMF and Banco de Portugal calculations.
609
857
511
598
1,528
172
170
1,466
126
1,700
2,626
2,728
2,728
-751
1,676
106
1,782
1,031
14
78
-186
1,635
1,109
1,235
2,304
1,417
Money
Currency in circulation
Demand deposits
in national currency
in foreign currency
Quasi-money
Time deposits in national currency
Time deposits in foreign currency
Repurchase agreements
2,548
2,097
Broad money (M3)
Money and quasi-money (M2)
2,548
2,097
-309
22
396
-263
1,332
1,728
594
858
1,419
616
2
-2
167
-1
19
13
-55
18
1,183
1,343
-28
1,792
1,128
1,605
1,127
1,683
18
1,698
1,315
13
2010
Dec
1,314
1,129
20
2009
Dec
1,481
2008
Dec
Total assets
Credit to the economy
Other domestic assets (net)
Net domestic assets
Domestic credit (net)
Claims on general government (net)
Commercial banks
Banco Nacional de Angola
Net international reserves
Gross reserves
Gross reserves, USD billions
Short-term liabilities
Other foreign assets (net)
Net foreign assets
Net foreign assets, USD billions
MONETARY SURVEY | Billions of kwanzas
Table A.II.1.9.
88
949
843
1,793
908
765
1,673
175
1,848
3,641
3,729
3,729
-1,183
2,514
-661
1,853
670
99
79
-230
33
3,111
2,881
2,960
32
3,059
2012
Jun
Est.
2.0
3.8
-14.1
-16.2
-13.9
-5.0
-22.4
32.2
41.4
25.0
-41.5
2.0
-11.2
6.0
62.3
16.6
-19.0
-70.5
15.3
15.9
15.0
14.9
4.4
-4.4
5.4
5.3
[1]
2.0
2.0
-2.3
2.9
-6.9
9.8
-5.2
-6.4
-0.3
-0.1
10.7
10.8
11.1
4.3
[2]
Jun12 / Dec11
Angola
150
1,088
237
4,043
4,193
4,193
-703
2,482
-1,340
1,142
439
735
174
31
2,845
3,019
38
3,754
2012
Dec
Prog.
150
1,490
325
5,641
5,791
5,791
-708
2,877
-1,282
1,595
887
1 505
180
34
3,219
3,399
49
4,904
2013
Dec
Prog.
II
33
Table A.II.1.10.
INTEREST RATES | Annual rates, per cent
II
BANCO DE PORTUGAL | ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENTS IN PORTUGUESE-SPEAKING AFRICAN COUNTRIES AND TIMOR-LESTE 2011/2012
34
2008
Dec
2009
Dec
2010
Dec
2011
Mar
2011
Jun
2011
Sep
2011
Dec
2012
Mar
2012
Jun
2.95
2.56
2.44
2.70
0.04
0.12
5.79
2.75
0.24
8.67
12.54
7.51
5.81
12.06
12.59
11.62
4.62
8.18
9.99
6.81
1.65
7.87
11.67
6.17
6.58
7.60
10.56
10.24
7.24
3.97
7.67
3.32
7.12
4.32
6.67
5.55
8.58
4.14
5.50
5.86
7.31
3.25
3.82
3.56
5.85
0.18
0.95
0.08
0.03
0.05
0.00
2.00
0.08
0.00
4.72
4.84
4.10
5.14
4.05
4.91
5.78
5.95
2.32
7.15
2.73
1.12
2.34
3.42
2.48
1.09
2.91
3.52
3.68
1.36
2.31
2.53
3.70
1.48
2.38
2.68
3.72
3.88
2.36
3.06
3.35
3.49
2.39
2.36
3.25
5.23
11.98
10.71
10.52
15.62
19.39
19.02
18.96
18.23
23.74
19.21
21.24
26.07
13.47
17.82
23.57
16.99
19.05
18.05
18.09
15.98
17.70
18.66
15.64
18.13
17.68
17.16
18.52
9.14
8.11
7.84
11.32
9.90
8.57
14.84
8.72
9.86
9.71
12.71
9.61
8.40
11.60
13.83
10.08
12.00
10.62
10.17
10.03
10.42
10.82
10.52
10.69
12.09
12.53
10.71
19.57
30.00
25.00
25.00
20.00
20.00
20.00
10.50
20.00
10.25
20.00
10.25
12.50
2.00
12.00
2.00
11.75
1.50
Deposits
(in national currency)
Demand deposits
Time deposits
Up to 90 days
91-180 days
181-365 days
Over 1 year
(in foreign currency)
Demand deposits
Time deposits
Up to 90 days
91-180 days
181-365 days
Over 1 year
Credit (to enterprises)
(in national currency)
Up to 180 days
181-365 days
Over 1 year
(in foreign currency)
Up to 180 days
181-365 days
Over 1 year
BNA intervention rates
Rediscount
Reference rate
Standing facilities
Liquidity provision facility
Overnight deposit facility
Open market operations
Liquidity provision
Liquidity absorption
Central bank bills
14 days
28 days
63 days
91 days
182 days
364 days
Treasury bills
63 days
91 days
182 days
364 days
Treasury bonds (a)
1 year
2 years
3 years
4 years
5 years
6 years
Memo item:
Inflation (year-on-year rate of change)
13.86
14.09
14.59
14.89
14.94
20.56
7.00
8.50
9.99
10.82
7.18
8.62
16.25
7.75
15.45
4.79
15.45
5.22
12.00
5.00
8.40
5.59
7.18
6.77
3.21
6.80
6.80
3.94
3.91
4.01
4.56
3.29
3.57
3.68
7.00
7.25
7.50
7.75
7.00
7.25
11.12
10.11
20.88
21.44
14.59
14.89
2.32
13.18
23.28
4.46
4.96
5.46
6.46
14.00
10.82
11.55
13.69
10.00
10.59
12.41
8.34
7.87
9.00
3.58
3.74
4.76
3.94
4.82
5.18
7.00
7.00
7.00
7.00
7.00
7.75
8.00
7.00
7.25
7.75
8.00
7.00
7.25
7.75
8.00
15.30
14.76
14.58
11.91
11.38
Source: Banco Nacional de Angola (BNA).
Notes: (a) Treasury bonds issued in kwanzas but indexed to the USD/AOK exchange rate.
Table A.II.1.11.
EXCHANGE RATES | Average rates
USD / AOK
EERI (a) (b)
Nominal
II
Real
2000
9.02
9.89
100.00
100.00
2001
19.58
21.84
45.45
112.68
2002
41.21
43.34
22.74
116.98
2003
83.98
74.35
12.91
129.34
2004
103.56
83.36
11.33
157.98
2005
108.91
87.24
10.75
179.92
2006
100.79
80.38
11.54
213.65
2007
105.11
76.71
11.66
233.85
2008
110.33
75.03
11.31
243.75
2009
110.32
79.06
10.69
263.53
2010
122.04
91.85
9.27
255.46
2011
130.77
93.77
8.81
264.66
2010 January
128.68
89.70
9.40
246.06
February
124.32
90.23
9.40
246.68
March
123.54
90.92
9.37
248.57
April
125.65
93.56
9.12
243.90
May
119.40
92.93
9.16
247.53
June
113.07
92.57
9.35
256.17
July
116.45
92.57
9.35
258.56
August
120.01
92.30
9.24
257.43
September
116.90
90.64
9.48
269.63
October
127.26
92.15
9.15
262.37
November
127.41
92.30
9.06
260.90
December
121.82
92.33
9.17
267.43
123.46
92.89
9.08
264.92
February
127.25
93.25
8.98
262.06
March
129.93
93.27
8.96
262.24
April
133.83
93.27
8.90
262.02
May
135.32
93.28
8.79
260.79
June
134.47
93.29
8.82
264.26
July
133.94
93.31
8.80
264.89
August
133.62
93.34
8.80
266.14
September
131.55
93.99
8.69
263.80
October
129.23
94.92
8.72
266.71
November
130.18
95.20
8.62
266.15
December
126.46
95.27
8.65
271.52
122.87
95.29
8.70
272.79
February
125.72
95.30
8.67
273.14
March
126.28
95.31
8.64
272.56
April
125.95
95.32
8.64
273.98
May
123.44
95.34
8.64
276.46
June
119.04
95.35
8.78
283.80
July
118.30
95.37
8.74
284.65
2011 January
2012 January
Sources:
Notes:
Banco Nacional de Angola and Banco de Portugal calculations.
(a) Effective exchange rate index (EERI, nominal and real), calculated on the basis of official exchange rates applied to the
currencies of the four main trading partners over the period 2005/2009; (b) An increase/decrease in the EERI (nominal or
real) corresponds to an appreciation/depreciation of the kwanza.
35
Angola
EUR / AOK
II.2.1. SUMMARY
affected macroeconomic developments in Cape Verde in 2011 and have been determinant throughout
II
2012. Continued weak economic conditions in many of Cape Verde’s main economic partners have
39
resulted in smaller inflows from abroad, with grants and foreign direct investment suffering in
Cape Verde
The protracted international crisis – particularly in EU countries – and domestic investment dynamics
particular, exerting pressure on public accounts and the balance of payments. Nevertheless, both
domestic investment dynamics and buoyant tourism have helped sustain economic growth at 5% in
2011 and a projected 4.3% in 2012.
Table II.2.1.
MAIN ECONOMIC INDICATORS
2009
2010
2011
Est.
2012
Prog.
Real GDP (annual percentage change)
3.7
5.2
5.0
4.3
Inflation (average percentage change)
1.0
-0.4
2.1
3.4
4.5
3.6
2.1
2.3
(y-o-y percentage change)
Broad money (percentage change)
3.3
5.9
3.6
1.9
-15.6
-12.9
-15.0
-11.7
4.2
4.2
3.2
3.1
Fiscal balance (% of GDP)
-6.2
-11.0
-8.8
-9.8
Public debt (% of GDP)
76.4
80.9
84.0
--
External
45.8
50.9
55.7
--
Domestic
30.6
30.0
28.4
--
9.2
8.6
7.4
--
Current account (% of GDP)
Official reserves (months of imp.)
of which: TCMF(a)
Sources: IMF, BCV, Ministry of Finance and NSO of Cape Verde.
(a) Títulos Consolidados de Mobilização Financeira (consolidated financial
mobilisation securities).
Note:
In 2011 these constraints had the strongest impact on the external accounts. The current account
deteriorated due to an increase in capital goods and energy imports, in spite of growth in tourism
receipts, exports of goods and emigrant remittances. Also reflecting the decrease in foreign direct
investment and capital transfers, foreign reserves dropped to 3.2 months of imports of goods and
services in 2011 (4.2 in 2010).
In response to a decline in reserves – particularly marked until the third quarter of the year – Banco de
Cabo Verde tightened its monetary policy stance by amending the minimum reserve system, limiting
recourse to the liquidity provision facility and increasing its reference interest rate. Against a
background of negligible inflationary pressures, monetary expansion stood at 3.6% at the end of 2011,
despite having accommodated increased credit to the economy and net claims on general government.
The State’s increasing recourse to domestic borrowing results from a growing need for funding,
including taking on the domestic component of the public investment programme’s financing. Despite
slowing down in 2011, this investment effort exerted pressure on public debt, which amounted to 77%
of GDP (excluding Títulos Consolidados de Mobilização Financeira (consolidated financial mobilisation
securities)), and sustained the government deficit at high levels (close to 9% of GDP), in spite of
expenditure restraint measures introduced throughout the year in response to a lower-than-expected
collection of certain taxes and a marked decrease in grants.
The continuation of the investment programme has driven developments throughout 2012, maintaining
pressure on public accounts (the deficit almost doubled year-on-year in the first half of the year), which
II.2.3. EXTERNAL ACCOUNTS
II
BANCO DE PORTUGAL | ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENTS IN PORTUGUESE-SPEAKING AFRICAN COUNTRIES AND TIMOR-LESTE 2011/2012
42
In 2011 Cape Verde’s external accounts deteriorated markedly, as a result of both a persistently
unfavourable external environment and the impact of investment dynamics on the balance of
payments, given its high import content. In 2011 the current account deficit exceeded €200 million,
reaching 15.0% of GDP (12.9% in 2010), mainly due to strong growth in imports of goods (23%,
compared with the previous year) and a decrease in official current transfers (37%).
Table II.2.2.
BALANCE OF PAYMENTS | As a percentage of GDP
2009
2010
Est.
2011
Est.
2012
Prog.
-15.6
-12.9
-15.0
-11.7
-42.3
-41.1
-44.5
-39.0
Exports
5.8
8.2
11.1
12.0
Imports
-48.1
-49.2
-55.6
-51.0
10.0
12.4
13.8
14.6
16.5
15.9
18.4
19.0
Income
-2.7
-4.7
-3.1
-2.9
Current transfers
19.4
20.4
18.8
15.6
Current account balance
Trade balance
Services
of which: Tourism receipts
of which: Remittances
8.0
7.5
8.9
8.4
Capital and financial account
15.9
18.6
13.2
11.4
2.9
2.4
0.7
0.6
10.8
Capital account
Financial account
13.0
16.2
12.6
Errors and omissions
-0.7
-4.0
0.4
0.0
Overall balance
-0.4
1.6
-1.4
-0.3
Sources: IMF and Banco de Cabo Verde.
Developments in imports were driven by a stronger investment programme (which was mostly reflected
in increased imports of capital goods) and higher fuel costs (which resulted from growing and
continued high international oil prices). The decline in official current transfers resulted from difficulties
in unlocking financial support in the form of grants to the State budget.
Exports of goods increased significantly in 2011 (49%, compared with 2010), in particular re-exports
and fishing products, thereby contributing to the containment of the trade deficit growth at 18%,
compared with 2010, reaching 44% of GDP.
In addition, the services balance improved as a result of strong growth in tourism receipts (26%,
compared with 2010), while the income balance improved following a decrease in outflows from the
distribution of dividends to foreign investors (compared with an extraordinary distribution in 2010).
Private current transfers also increased significantly, growing by 18% in 2011, in particular emigrant
remittances. Currency inflows from remittances from the Cape Verdean diaspora increased by 29%, in
comparison with 2010, accounting for 8.9% of GDP, due to more dynamic inflows from Portugal,
France and the Netherlands (accounting for 77% of the increase as a whole).
Similarly to the current account, the capital and financial account worsened in 2011, declining by 22%
compared with 2010. Smaller inflows in capital transfers (-70%), foreign direct investment (-22%) and
disbursement of loans to the State (-3%) contributed to this decrease.
Table A.II.2.1.
MAIN ECONOMIC INDICATORS
II
2008
Units
2009
Est.
2010
2011
Est. Prog.
2012
Est. Prog.
Est.
48
BANCO DE PORTUGAL | ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENTS IN PORTUGUESE-SPEAKING AFRICAN COUNTRIES AND TIMOR-LESTE 2011/2012
OUTPUT AND PRICES
EUR millions
1,079
1,152
1,255
1,358
1,370
1,488
real % change
6.2
3.7
5.2
5.6
5.0
4.3
y-o-y % change
6.7
-0.4
3.4
2.3
3.6
2.3
2.2 Aug.
avg % change
6.8
1.0
2.1
2.1
4.5
2.1
2.8 Aug.
Total revenue
% of GDP
32.5
29.5
28.7
29.2
25.0
24.8
Grants
% of GDP
4.8
5.9
6.9
5.7
2.8
2.5
Total expenditure
% of GDP
34.9
35.6
39.5
39.6
33.8
34.8
Overall balance (commitment basis)
% of GDP
-1.8
-6.2
-11.0
-10.3
-8.8
-9.8
% of GDP
-6.6
-12.1
-17.8
-16.0
-11.6
-12.3
% of GDP
30.7
30.6
30.0
28.4
26.3 Jun.
% of GDP
9.6
9.2
8.6
7.4
6.8 Jun.
Claims on general government (net) Annual % change
-8.1
7.0
-4.5
12.5
12.2
4.1
(f)
11.2 Jul.
Credit to the economy
Annual % change
28.7
11.8
10.6
7.2
13.3
-0.8
(f)
0.3 Jul.
Broad money (M3)
Annual % change
7.9
3.3
5.9
9.7
3.6
1.9
(f)
2.5 Jul.
One-year deposits (c)
Annual rate
4.15
4.14
4.53
4.22
4.22 Jul.
Rediscount
Annual rate
7.50
7.50
7.50
7.50
9.75 Jul.
Liquidity provision
Annual rate
8.25
8.25
7.25
7.25
8.75 Jul.
Treasury bills (91 days)
Annual rate
3.40
3.59
4.00
4.10
4.13 May
Exports (current UDS)
Annual % change
41.3
-19.1
46.0
20.9
56.0
19.7
Imports (current USD)
Annual % change
17.9
-12.0
6.2
11.2
29.5
1.2
-11.7
GDP m.p.
Inflation (CPI)
PUBLIC FINANCES
Excluding grants
Domestic debt
of which: TCMF (a)
MONEY AND CREDIT
INTEREST RATES
(b)
BALANCE OF PAYMENTS
% of GDP
-15.5
-15.6
-12.9
-10.5
-15.0
Excluding official transfers
% of GDP
-22.1
-21.1
-19.3
-16.1
-18.6
-14.4
Current and capital accounts
% of GDP
-13.8
-12.8
-10.5
-8.9
-14.3
-11.1
4.0
4.2
4.2
4.2
3.2
3.1
EUR millions
470.5
527.9
638.8
762.5
861.9 Jun.
% of GDP
43.6
45.8
50.9
55.7
57.9 Jun.
97.3
128.6
131.8
134.3
137.5 Jun.
4.6
5.5
4.7
2.1
3.9 Jun.
110.3 110.3 Aug.
Current account
Net international reserves
months of imports(e)
3.6 Jul.
EXTERNAL DEBT
Total
(e)
% of exports
% of exports(e)
Debt service
EXCHANGE RATES (averages)
Nominal CVE/EUR
average rate
110.3
110.3
110.3
110.3
110.3
Nominal CVE/USD
average rate
75.3
79.4
83.3
80.5
79.3
Annual % change
0.0
0.3
-1.3
0.0
(f)
0.2 Jul.
Annual % change
3.7
1.3
-0.9
0.9
(f)
1.2 Jul.
Nominal EERI (Index, 100: 2000) (d)
Real EERI (Index, 100: 2000)
(d)
78.2
89.1 Aug.
Sources Banco de Cabo Verde, Ministry of Finance of Cape Verde, IMF and Banco de Portugal calculations.
Notes: (a) Títulos Consolidados de Mobilização Financeira (consolidated financial mobilisation securities); (b) Monthly averages (corresponding
to December for annual figures); (c) Average of other monetary institutions; (d) Effective exchange rate index (EERI), calculated on the
basis of official exchange rates applied to the currencies of Cape Verde's four main trading partners over the period 2005/09 (appreciation:
+; depreciation: -); (e) Imports and exports of goods and services; (f) Change from the previous December.
Table A.II.2.2.
GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT | Current prices, CVE millions
Agriculture, livestock and forestry
Fishing
Secondary sector
Industry and energy
Construction
Tertiary sector
Trade
Hotels and restaurants
Transports and communication
2009
Est.
7,481
11,901
6,580
10,859
902
1,042
19,296
21,712
7,969
9,997
11,327
11,715
75,413
85,458
20,029
22,369
4,684
5,700
22,512
24,028
Banking and insurance
6,113
7,735
Housing
6,336
7,251
12,549
14,774
3,189
3,602
Public administration
Other services
Banking services
(a)
2010
Est.
2011
Est.
2012
Proj.
49
-5,292
-6,056
13,369
14,054
118,949
127,069
138,355
151,049
164,129
Consumption
116,164
128,949
139,630
158,393
168,457
Public
16,648
19,099
21,200
21,003
22,110
Private
99,516
109,849
118,430
137,390
146,347
55,430
49,684
52,160
55,133
55,147
55,430
49,684
52,160
55,133
55,147
Taxes on imports
GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT (m.p.)
Investment
Gross fixed capital formation
Changes in inventories
Domestic demand
Exports of goods and services
0
0
0
0
0
171,594
178,633
191,790
213,526
223,604
25,819
21,919
25,895
30,321
33,481
197,413
200,552
217,685
243,846
257,086
78,464
73,483
79,330
92,797
92,957
2,786
-1,880
-1,275
-7,344
-4,328
Nominal GDPmp (EUR millions)
1,078.8
1,152.4
1,254.7
1,369.9
1,488.5
Nominal GDPmp (USD millions)
1,578.9
1,600.8
1,661.3
1,905.3
2,100.0
GDP deflator (annual percentage change)
4.4
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.2
Nominal GDP (annual percentage change)
10.9
6.8
8.9
9.2
8.7
6.2
3.7
5.2
5.0
4.3
Overall demand
Imports of goods and services
Memo items:
Gross domestic savings
Real GDP (annual percentage change)
II
Cape Verde
Primary sector
2008
Est.
Sources: Banco de Cabo Verde, IMF and Banco de Portugal calculations.
Notes: (a) Estimate corresponding to the value of intermediate banking services used by the remaining branches of activity.
Table A.II.2.3.
CONSUMER PRICE INDEX | Per cent
II
BANCO DE PORTUGAL | ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENTS IN PORTUGUESE-SPEAKING AFRICAN COUNTRIES AND TIMOR-LESTE 2011/2012
50
Monthly change
Year-on-year change
Average change
[1]
[2]
[3]
3.35
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
December
December
December
December
December
December
December
December
December
December
December
--
4.14
--
2.98
1.88
--
-2.28
1.19
--
0.61
-1.89
--
1.80
0.40
--
5.81
4.85
--
3.97
4.40
--
6.69
6.78
--
-0.37
0.98
--
3.43
2.08
--
3.58
4.47
2010
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
0.28
0.09
0.52
0.28
-0.46
0.00
0.28
0.83
-0.26
0.37
2.15
-0.22
0.00
1.96
-0.22
0.64
2.90
0.02
0.18
2.51
0.28
1.09
2.96
0.58
0.00
2.67
0.91
-0.36
3.16
1.44
-0.09
2.78
1.76
0.72
3.43
2.08
December (proj.)
2011
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
December (proj.)
2012
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
December (proj.)
--
2.22
1.47
0.00
3.14
2.33
1.16
4.05
2.71
0.44
4.22
3.00
1.41
5.31
3.26
-0.09
5.22
3.53
0.70
5.27
3.73
0.09
5.17
3.95
0.17
4.22
4.06
0.52
4.76
4.23
-0.60
4.50
4.34
-0.34
4.24
4.46
0.09
3.58
4.47
--
4.50
4.60
-0.61
2.95
4.45
0.70
2.48
4.32
0.00
2.03
4.13
0.43
1.04
3.77
0.86
2.00
3.50
0.26
1.55
3.19
1.02
2.50
2.97
-0.17
2.15
2.80
--
2.30
2.09
Sources: Banco Central de Cabo Verde and Banco de Portugal calculations.
In January 2008, a new consumption structure and a new basket of goods and services were adopted to calculate the CPI, on
Notes:
the basis of the Family Income and Expenditure Survey conducted from October 2001 to October 2002.
[1] month (n) / month (n-1); [2] month (n) / month (n) of the previous year; [3] last 12 months /previous 12 months.
Table A.II.2.4.
BALANCE OF PAYMENTS | CVE millions
Est.
1. CURRENT ACCOUNT
Trade balance
Exports (f.o.b.) (a)
Imports (f.o.b.)
2011
Proj. 1st half
Est.
2012
Proj. 1st half
-19,878 -17,879 -15,655 -15,681 -22,615 -19,179 -8,427
-53,735 -56,822 -60,062 -32,924 -67,197 -63,992 -28,308
7,365 11,282 13,187
7,006 16,759
-61,100 -68,104 -73,249 -39,930 -83,956
12,703 17,132 22,398
8,603 20,830
37,883 42,174 47,839 20,827 45,833
11,083 14,877
5,788 11,920
20,913 22,023 25,083 12,162 27,848
-25,179 -25,042 -25,442 -12,224 -25,002
-10,010 -8,472
-4,390 -8,944
-5,236 -4,838
-2,443 -4,578
-3,442 -6,480 -5,913 -3,737 -4,713
1,776
1,170
629
Services
Exports
of which: Transports
Tourism
Imports
of which: Transports
Tourism
Income
Exports
of which: Extra. interest from contrib. TF(b)
Income from the TF
(b)
(previous year)
Imports
of which: Interest on scheduled public debt
Current transfers
Official transfers
Private transfers
of which: Emigrant remittances
2. CAPITAL AND FINANCIAL ACCOUNT
Capital account
Capital transfers
of which: Debt relief
Grants to the TF
Financial account
Direct investment
2010
Est.
(b)
of which: Privatisation receipts to the TF (b)
Portfolio investment
Other transactions
of which: Disburs. of loans to general gov.
Disbursements to the TF (b)
Scheduled amortisation
Transfers to the TF (b)
0
0
467
-5,218
-548
24,596
6,894
17,702
10,195
518
-7,650
-667
28,290
8,789
19,501
10,336
486
0
-784
27,922
8,454
19,468
11,212
20,209
25,671
3,670
3,311
3,670
0
3,311
0
19,775
8,457
-83,768 -36,765
23,964 13,254
49,341 25,690
6,785
31,106 15,774
-25,377 -12,436
-4,254
-1,815
-4,773 -3,292
332
0
0
-417
12,377
2,250
10,127
5,897
486
-5,342
-852
28,464
5,515
22,949
13,369
373
-863
25,623
4,417
21,207
13,707
0
-3,624
-674
9,919
2,426
7,493
6,543
17,417
12,011
19,943
18,736
9,565
2,288
368
985
950
691
2,288
0
368
0
985
0
950
0
691
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
16,539
9,491
22,360
9,282
15,128
9,524
11,643
5,256
18,958
7,275
17,786
6,998
8,874
624
0
451
6,597
8,248
0
0
13,078
16,488
0
5,604
16,871
0
0
6,387
7,001
0
0
11,683
15,987
0
10,787
0
-22
8,272
8,569
0
-1,945
0
-1,832
-1,875
0
-874
0
-1,815
0
-953
0
0
0
0
3. ERRORS AND OMISSIONS
-901
-5,539
0
-3,752
591
-36
1,769
4. OVERALL BALANCE: (1)+(2)+(3)
-569
2,253
1,761
-7,422
-2,082
-479
2,907
569
444
125
-2,253
-2,185
-68
-1,761
-1,761
0
7,422
7,566
-144
2,082
3,676
-1,594
479
479
0
-2,907
-2,931
24
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
125
0
-68
0
0
0
-144
0
-1,594
0
0
0
24
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
Current account (% of GDP)
-15.6
-12.9
-10.4
--
-15.0
-11.7
Current and capital account (% of GDP)
-12.8
-10.5
-8.8
--
-14.3
-11.1
--
4.2
4.2
4.2
3.0
3.2
3.1
3.5
5. FINANCING
Change in international reserves (increase: - )
Exceptional financing
of which Drawings from ACC Facility
(c)
Reimbursements of ACC Facility (c)
Change in arrears (increase: +)
6. FINANCING GAP (d): (4)+(5)
0
Memo items:
International reserves (in months of imports) (e)
--
Sources Banco de Cabo Verde, IMF and Banco de Portugal calculations.
Notes: (a) Includes sales of fuel to ships and re-exports; (b) Offshore fund (Trust Fund) to support the conversion of domestic debt; (c) Foreign
exchange cooperation agreement (Acordo de Cooperação Cambial ) between Portugal and Cape Verde; (d) Net lending (+)/net borrowing
(-) (e) Net external assets of Banco de Cabo Verde and imports of goods and services in the year.
II
51
Cape Verde
2009
Table A.II.2.5.
MERCHANDISE EXPORTS | Destinations as a percentage of total exports
II
BANCO DE PORTUGAL | ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENTS IN PORTUGUESE-SPEAKING AFRICAN COUNTRIES AND TIMOR-LESTE 2011/2012
52
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2004 to 2011
Germany
0.1
0.1
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
Netherlands
0.2
0.6
0.6
0.2
0.5
0.5
0.3
0.2
0.4
78.3
51.6
49.8
58.3
40.6
33.5
22.7
18.0
37.9
46.6
Portugal
Spain
United States
Other
Total exports
0.3
21.3
27.3
20.9
37.1
61.8
72.6
70.2
19.4
12.3
1.4
1.4
0.4
1.2
1.6
0.5
3.3
1.7
14.1
20.9
19.2
21.4
3.1
2.8
11.1
11.8
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
Sources: Banco de Cabo Verde, IMF and Banco de Portugal calculations.
Table A.II.2.6.
MERCHANDISE IMPORTS | Origins as a percentage of total imports
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2004 to 2011
Brazil
4.6
8.0
6.4
6.3
5.7
4.5
3.7
2.7
4.9
Germany
0.9
0.7
1.1
1.4
1.6
2.3
0.4
0.5
1.1
Netherlands
13.7
15.7
11.2
16.3
17.0
16.7
16.8
19.1
16.3
Portugal
42.5
45.6
50.2
45.2
50.3
48.3
51.4
44.7
47.5
3.8
7.6
5.6
4.5
7.3
9.8
10.6
9.9
7.8
13.2
2.7
1.4
1.2
0.9
1.0
1.6
0.9
2.2
Spain
United States
Other
Total imports
21.2
19.6
24.1
25.1
17.3
17.3
15.4
22.0
20.1
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
Sources: Banco de Cabo Verde, IMF and Banco de Portugal calculations.
Table A.II.2.7.
PUBLIC DEBT | CVE millions
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
Est.
2011
Est.
Jun-12
Est.
TOTAL EXTERNAL DEBT
47,535
48,664
51,880
58,210
70,433
84,074
95,042
Multilateral creditors
38,171
40,391
42,248
46,185
48,274
49,777
51,863
9,364
8,273
9,632
12,026
22,159
34,297
43,179
Government
6,444
5,608
7,375
9,846
13,369
18,131
20,392
Other
2,920
2,665
2,257
2,179
8,790
16,166
22,786
40,311
38,991
36,492
38,820
41,466
42,870
43,153
7,351
4,285
3,005
1,730
600
1,550
1,174
20,578
21,207
20,182
23,870
27,369
28,609
29,299
19,543
16,082
13,421
14,379
15,162
17,236
15,821
9,379
11,520
11,682
12,752
14,356
14,482
16,112
11,389
11,389
11,389
11,690
11,948
11,153
11,219
Total external debt
Total domestic debt (excluding TCMF)
48.8
45.4
43.6
45.8
50.9
55.7
57.9
29.7
25.7
21.1
21.4
21.3
21.0
19.5
TCMF
Total domestic debt (including TCMF)
11.7
10.6
9.6
9.2
8.6
7.4
6.8
41.4
36.4
30.7
30.6
30.0
28.4
26.3
113.3
105.9
97.3
128.6
131.8
134.3
137.5
5.9
5.1
4.6
5.5
4.7
2.1
3.9
Bilateral creditors
TOTAL DOMESTIC DEBT
of whi Treasury bills
Treasury bonds
Banking system
Non-banking system
TCMF
(a)
(% of GDP)
(% of exports of goods and services)
Total external debt
Medium and long-term debt service
Sources: Banco de Cabo Verde, Ministry of Finance of Cape Verde, IMF and Banco de Portugal calculations.
(a) Títulos Consolidados de Mobilização Financeira (consolidated financial mobilisation securities).
Note:
Table A.II.2.8.
GOVERNMENT OPERATIONS | CVE millions
2011
2010
Est.
Budg. 1st half
II
2012
Est. l.e. (a)
1. TOTAL REVENUE
1.1. Current revenue
Taxes
Income taxes
Taxes on goods and services
of which: VAT
Taxes on international trans.
Other taxes
Social contributions
Other revenue
1.2. Grants
1.3. Transf. f/ state owned enterp.(b)
37,522 39,725 43,725 17,428 37,746
2. TOTAL EXPENDITURE (c)
45,287 54,657 59,261 22,175 51,043
Budg. 1st half l.e. (a)
86.3
40,737 16,415
40.3
35,147 16,268 33,547 95.4
29,633 14,285 29,563 99.8
8,907
4,366
8,661 97.2
13,646
6,628 13,840 101.4
11,948
5,597 11,603 97.1
6,227
2,862
6,228 100.0
854
428
835 97.8
31
15
37 116.2
5,483
1,968
3,947 72.0
36,709 15,824
32,092 13,689
9,698
4,583
15,121
5,941
12,756
5,032
6,227
2,801
1,046
364
12
9
4,604
2,126
22.0
42.7
47.3
39.3
39.4
45.0
34.8
72.4
46.2
29,985
25,530
8,061
11,081
9,747
5,438
951
46
4,409
30,239
26,241
7,892
12,015
10,521
5,634
701
42
3,956
7,536
9,486
8,577
1,160
4,199
0
0
0
0
0
49.0
--
4,028
591
0
0
14.7
--
86.1
57,037 24,485
42.9
2.1. Current expenditure (d)
Compensation of employees
Goods and services
Interest
of which: Domestic debt
External debt
Subsidies
Transfers
Social benefits
Other expenditure
of which: Scholarships
26,931 27,497 31,665 14,054 28,676 90.6
12,571 13,323 15,172
6,731 13,929 91.8
2,554
2,806
3,331
933
2,559 76.8
1,861
2,173
2,523
1,108
2,256 89.4
1,271
1,460
1,505
692
1,404 93.3
547
699
988
417
852 86.2
845
752
947
406
1,020 107.7
3,713
3,873
4,105
1,879
3,723 90.7
2,504
2,893
3,211
1,583
3,339 104.0
2,883
1,677
2,376
733
1,601 67.4
388
455
457
465 101.8
32,209 13,805
15,729
7,004
3,354
884
2,470
1,556
1,410
872
1,000
684
439
180
4,037
1,491
3,328
1,624
2,852
566
465
226
42.9
44.5
26.4
63.0
61.9
68.4
40.9
36.9
48.8
19.9
48.6
2.2. Investment programme
18,356 27,161 27,596
24,828 10,680
43.0
3. NON-FINANCIAL ASSETS: (3.1-3.2)
3.1. Purchase of non-financial assets
3.2. Sale of non-financial assets
4. CURRENT BALANCE: (1.1-2.1)
120
138
18
248
252
4
-120
161
281
3,055
2,742
3,482
8,121 22,367
31
33
2
16
58
42
2,214
81.1
-35.7
15.0
-149
135
284
3
3
0
-2.1
0.0
4,871
--
4,500
2,019
--
5. OVERALL BAL. excl. grants: (1-2-3-1.2) -15,422 -24,666 -23,994
-5,938 -17,512
--
-20,179
-8,664
--
6. OVERALL BALANCE: (1-2-3)
-4,778 -13,313
--
-16,151
-8,072
--
-7,886 -15,180 -15,416
(commitment basis)
7. CHANGE IN ARREARS
0
17
0
27
50
--
0
116
--
7.1. External
0
0
0
0
0
--
0
0
--
7.2. Domestic
0
17
0
27
50
--
0
116
--
-4,751 -13,263
--
-16,151
-7,957
--
6,860 13,263
8. OVERALL BALANCE: (6+7)
(cash basis)
9. FINANCING
9.1. Financial assets
Loan repaym. to state ow. enterp.
Loans to state owned enterprises
Shares and other equity
9.2. Financial liabilities
External (net)
Disbursements
Amortisation
Domestic (net)
Banking system
Other
10. FIN. GAP/DISCREPANCY(e): (8+9)
-7,886 -15,163 -15,416
7,886 15,163 15,416
-836
24
-860
0
-849
29
-862
-15
-3,980
25
-3,955
-50
8,721 16,012 19,396
6,301 14,524 14,903
8,248 16,498 16,818
-1,947 -1,975 -1,915
2,420
1,489
4,493
1,233
-846
2,932
1,188
2,335
1,561
0
0
0
--
16,151 11,418
--
-3,151
31
-3,135
-46
-----
-3,115
23
-2,138
-1,000
-1,439
0
-1,374
-64
-----
8,552 16,414
6,127 14,172
7,001 15,987
-874 -1,815
2,425
2,242
3,532
2,194
-1,107
48
--------
19,265 12,856
15,283
8,417
16,866
9,339
-1,582
-922
3,982
4,440
1,008
2,793
2,974
1,647
--------
-1,692
0
-1,651
-41
2,109
0
--
0
3,461
--
Sources: Banco de Cabo Verde, Ministry of Finance of Cape Verde, IMF and Banco de Portugal calculations.
Notes: (a) Level of budget execution (%); (b) Share of capital expenditure of public enterprises (usually to finance infrastructures related to the
activities of these enterprises); (c) Includes expenditure on arrears and expenditure that is not classified; (d) Includes values to settle in
2011 and 2012; (e) Net borrowing (+)/net lending (-).
53
Cape Verde
2009
30,242
203
30,686
217
281
Commercial banks
65,585
68,105
102,089 105,452 111,676
59,918
8,514
35,057
5.9
3.8
11.3
1.8
5.9
-3.4
5.9
--
--
--
--
13.3
-6.9
46.7
12.2
13.1
12.6
-12.2
--
10.1
-11.3
-11.3
-20.4
-21.6
[1]
0
92,829
122,460 115,663
8,376
122,460 115,663
76,166
31,120
3.6
11.8
-11.2
-1.6
3.6
-5.7
3.6
-15.4
--
12.9
117,877
-19,952
0
92,548
20,954
113,502
93,550
28,272
24,327
2012
Prog.
--
7.2
-3.5
-0.1
117,877
3.6 117,877
--
--
-2.5
--
9.5
0.3
9.8
-0.7
2.4
2.0
11.8
9.3
0.5
-2.9
0.0
-3.3
-3.3
-6.2
-5.7
[2]
2011/2010
506 190.0
93,334
10,802
8,375
20,131
-17,153 -20,862
0
88,375
20,172
5.9 122,460 115,663
-28,818 24,439
--
92,603
-3,750
-2,028
86
28,752
28,837
26,810
23,060
108,547 113,465
91,394
34,188
31,065
2011
Prog.
Est.
1.9
1.9
1.9
4.4
--
-0.8
4.1
0.0
1.0
-1.7
5.5
[1]
[1] Change from the end of the previous year; [2] Change in per cent of the initial stock of money supply (expansion/contraction determinants).
89,850
-2,477
-897
89
31,683
31,772
30,874
28,397
2012
June
89,658
-2,660
-892
90
32,352
32,442
31,550
28,889
2012
July
22,925
0
92,689
263
92,952
10,869
10,879
22,389
0
93,255
322
93,577
10,880
10,460
116,211 118,247 118,547
-20,952 -26,027 -26,307
0
92,528
212
92,740
10,858
9,220
21,222
113,963 115,877 115,966
93,011
-7,902
658
89
30,355
30,444
31,102
23,200
2012
May
--
7,203
79,089
31,956
7,828
79,599
31,121
116,211 118,247 118,547
78,336
30,598
7,277
1.9 116,211 118,247 118,547
27,936 28,311 30,139
--
0.8
--
-0.7
0.7
0.0
0.8
-0.4
1.1
[2]
2012p/2011
SourcesBanco de Cabo Verde, IMF and Banco de Portugal calculations.
Notes: (a) Offshore fund (Trust Fund) to support the conversion of domestic debt by issuing Títulos Consolidados de Mobilização Financeira (consolidated financial mobilisation securities).
TOTAL LIABILITIES
8,362
31,505
8,713
102,089 105,452 111,676
25,952 26,830 25,922
BROAD MONEY
Base money
Currency in circulation
Demand deposits in national currency
Quasi-money
33,458
102,089 105,452 111,676
--1.7
--10.8
0.0
0
0
0
82,231
-7.7
0.2
7.5
-11,059 -16,314 -18,084
74,351
66,390
174
2.3
10.6
-1.7
-0.8
6.7
5.0
-1.6
0.5
-0.1
2.1
2.0
2.5
0.9
[2]
7.5
189
282
82,406
11,597
-24.2
-4.5
7.5
6.8
62.8
90.9
-61.8
7.2
6.8
8.4
3.4
[1]
2010/2009
10.6
74,540
11,339
66,673
11,038
TOTAL ASSETS
Credit to the economy
Public enterprises
Private sector
Credit to NMFI
Other items (net)
investment in TCMF (a)
5,709
17,938
6,806
7,528
18,784
17,551
of which: on Central government
82,259
93,324 100,343
77,010
-4,269
84,224
73,165
-2,622
1,181
78
32,427
32,505
33,686
29,417
2010
Est.
Total domestic credit
Net claims on general government
DOMESTIC ASSETS (net)
-2,260
30,445
30,903
Medium and long-term liabilities
31,064
619
28,442
31,184
2009
Est.
54
28,924
2008
Est.
II
FOREIGN ASSETS (net)
Foreign assets
Banco de Cabo Verde
Net foreign assets
Other assets (net)
MONETARY SURVEY | CVE millions
Table A.II.2.9.
BANCO DE PORTUGAL | ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENTS IN PORTUGUESE-SPEAKING AFRICAN COUNTRIES AND TIMOR-LESTE 2011/2012
Table A.II.2.10.
INTEREST RATES | Annual rates, per cent
2006
Dec.
2007
Dec.
2008
Dec.
2009
Dec.
2010
Dec.
2011
Dec.
2012
Mar.
2012
Jun.
2012
Jul.
8.53
12.84
11.59
12.99
13.91
8.96
12.09
10.48
15.81
9.64
9.79
11.80
12.09
11.55
9.24
8.76
15.82
14.12
10.51
10.78
10.17
11.26
11.80
9.04
9.63
9.63
9.79
8.14
9.83
9.33
9.30
9.04
8.97
9.53
9.68
9.47
12.43
11.81
11.82
10.69
10.08
10.07
9.56
9.72
9.65
12.29
12.03
11.15
10.84
10.05
9.93
10.04
10.28
10.27
11.35
10.71
10.27
10.20
10.23
9.52
9.45
9.63
9.64
10.92
10.77
10.43
10.12
9.83
9.22
9.33
9.30
9.30
15.34
16.04
15.38
14.95
15.72
15.98
16.64
17.07
17.23
4.28
4.10
3.06
3.01
2.94
2.91
2.99
3.99
3.01
3.15
3.05
2.83
3.40
3.39
3.41
3.37
4.21
3.47
3.81
3.69
3.85
4.26
4.10
4.07
4.12
3.74
4.08
4.28
4.16
4.15
4.14
4.53
4.22
4.16
4.21
4.22
4.29
4.17
4.19
4.47
4.14
4.59
4.64
4.82
4.83
2.86
2.25
2.21
1.62
2.98
2.98
2.91
3.35
2.91
3.36
3.56
3.81
1.81
2.88
3.13
3.08
4.44
2.95
3.63
3.99
3.99
3.52
3.92
3.76
3.91
3.75
3.87
4.12
4.31
4.19
3.96
3.91
3.98
4.09
3.99
4.05
4.23
4.08
4.14
4.59
4.66
4.72
4.87
5.05
4.93
3.28
3.70
3.42
3.49
3.49
3.49
3.49
5.19
3.50
3.48
3.41
3.43
3.48
3.51
3.52
3.51
5.18
3.50
4.14
4.20
4.13
4.08
4.10
4.22
4.23
4.13
4.17
4.56
4.33
4.32
3.71
4.14
4.17
4.17
4.15
4.16
4.53
4.36
4.25
4.44
4.93
4.99
5.05
5.26
5.25
8.50
8.50
7.50
7.50
7.50
7.50
9.75
9.75
9.75
7.50
7.50
8.25
8.25
7.25
7.25
8.75
8.75
8.75
1.00
1.00
2.75
2.75
1.75
1.75
3.25
3.25
3.25
3.40
3.59
4.00
Deposit rates
Residents
7 - 30 days
31 - 90 days
91 - 180 days
181 days - 1 year
1 - 2 years
Non-residents
7 - 30 days
31 - 90 days
91 - 180 days
181 days - 1 year
1 - 2 years
Emigrants
7 - 30 days
31 - 90 days
91 - 180 days
181 days - 1 year
1 - 2 years
Reference rates
BCV instruments
Rediscount
Liquidity provision
Liquidity absorption
Treasury bills
91 days
182 days
364 days
Memo item:
Inflation (y-o-y % change)
3.00
3.00
3.49
3.06
3.49
5.81
3.97
4.10
4.19
4.25
4.25
6.69
-0.37
3.43
3.58
2.03
1.55
2.50
Sources: Banco de Cabo Verde (BCV) and Banco de Portugal calculations.
Notes:
Lending and deposit rates shown refer to effective interest rates by calculating average rates weighted by the amounts of
credit/investments regarding lending/deposit operations applied to residents, non-residents and emigrants.
Cape Verde
55
Lending rates
7-30 days
31-90 days
91-180 days
181 days - 1 year
1 - 2 years
2 - 5 years
5 - 10 years
Over 10 years
Overdraft
II
Table A.II.2.11.
EXCHANGE RATES | Average rates
EERI(a)
II
CVE/USD
BANCO DE PORTUGAL | ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENTS IN PORTUGUESE-SPEAKING AFRICAN COUNTRIES AND TIMOR-LESTE 2011/2012
56
Index, 100: 2000
Nominal
Real
2001
123.21
101.59
100.47
2002
117.26
103.41
100.28
2003
97.80
105.53
99.60
2004
88.74
105.91
95.64
2005
88.65
104.42
92.31
2006
87.93
103.67
94.35
2007
80.62
103.47
96.16
2008
75.34
103.46
99.75
2009
79.38
103.75
101.01
2010
83.28
102.45
100.14
2011
79.28
102.43
101.01
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
77.11
103.11
100.96
80.51
103.05
100.94
81.20
102.75
99.87
82.53
102.53
99.54
87.45
102.28
99.13
90.25
102.03
99.48
86.67
102.21
99.89
85.43
102.24
101.08
84.71
102.17
100.71
79.41
102.48
100.22
80.54
102.48
99.91
83.53
102.14
100.04
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
82.79
102.14
99.69
80.83
102.27
100.78
78.26
102.42
100.03
76.50
102.31
100.79
76.78
102.39
100.78
76.69
102.30
101.62
77.23
102.12
101.42
76.92
102.31
101.96
79.90
102.66
102.32
80.62
102.78
101.15
81.21
102.74
100.80
83.58
102.73
100.82
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
85.58
102.38
99.76
83.47
102.26
100.09
83.51
102.57
99.34
83.77
102.80
99.54
86.01
103.10
100.87
88.02
103.19
101.45
89.69
102.96
101.98
89.05
103.04
---
2010
2011
2012
Sources: Banco de Cabo Verde and Banco de Portugal calculations.
Notes: (a) Effective exchange rate index (EERI), calculated on the basis of official exchange rates applied to the
currencies of Cape Verde's four main trading partners over the period 2005-2009 (appreciation: +; depreciation: -).
GUINEA-BISSAU
AREA: 36,125 KM2
CAPITAL CITY: Bissau
POPULATION: 1.6 million
(2011; source: UN)
CURRENCY: CFA franc
In 2011 Guinea-Bissau experienced economic
growth above the average of previous years, on
the back of buoyant cashew exports,
its predominant product.
Inflation has continued to fall since the middle of
the previous year.
In 2012 growth is expected to decelerate, against
a background of uncertainty in the country.
II.3.1. SUMMARY
The political instability experienced since April has affected developments in Guinea-Bissau in 2012,
II
This stability had contributed to relatively high economic growth rates (4.5% and 5.3% in 2010 and
2011 respectively), some improvement in public finance management and access to the Multilateral
Debt Relief Initiative (MDRI), by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank, which
significantly reduced Guinea-Bissau’s external debt. A programme with the IMF under the Extended
Credit Facility (ECF) had also been ongoing since 2010. This programme was projected to end in 2013
and was aimed at strengthening the macroeconomic progress achieved to date.
Economic developments were particularly buoyant in 2011, as good cashew production (GuineaBissau’s predominant export) and high cashew prices resulted in substantial export growth. This was the
main factor behind a significant variation in output (which recorded the highest growth rate of the last
decade).
Under the budget preparation, growth for 2012 was expected to stand at 2.5%, which is now unlikely
in light of the economic impact of the instability observed in April.
Table II.3.1.
MAIN ECONOMIC INDICATORS
2009
Real GDP (annual rate of change)
Inflation (average annual rate of change)
Broad money (annual rate of change)
Current account (% of GDP)
2010
Est.
2011
Est.
2012
Proj.
3.4
4.5
5.3
2.5
-2.8
2.3
4.8
3.3
6.8
29.6
39.1
-8.1
-5.7
-8.3
-1.6
-4.7
Fiscal balance (% of GDP)
3.7
-0.2
-1.9
-1.0
External debt (% of GDP)
121.9
19.1
17.5
17.8
Sources: BCEAO branch in Guinea-Bissau and IMF.
The main sector behind Guinea-Bissau’s economy continues to be the primary sector (accounting for
around 48% of output in 2011). In addition to subsistence goods, cashew production is particularly
relevant in the agricultural sector (traditionally representing more than 80% of exports, and accounting
for an even higher share in 2011).
As for the public accounts, progress was made to contain current expenditure (helped by a significant
decrease in interest payments, as a result of the debt relief). This progress was nevertheless offset by a
decrease in grants that has been observed since 2009. The budget deficit (which worsened from 0.2%
of GDP in 2010 to 1.9% in 2011) was expected to improve in 2012, but this seems unlikely after the
instability observed since April.
Price developments have been favourable. Prices began decelerating after a surge from June 2010 to
mid-2011 and continued decelerating throughout 2012 (a year-on-year rate of 1.9% in June, compared
with more than 7% in the same period a year earlier).
As regards external accounts, buoyant exports (cashew nuts) offset an increase in imports in 2011 and
even resulted in markedly positive developments in the current account balance (by contrast with the
59
Guinea-Bissau
interrupting the relative stability of previous years.
Table A.II.3.1.
MAIN ECONOMIC INDICATORS
Units
2008
2009
2011
2010
Est. Prog. Est.
Prog.
2012
Est.
II
OUTPUT AND PRICES
EUR millions
Nominal GDP
589.9
595.3
645.4
675.5
717.3
761.8
Real GDP
Annual % change
3.2
3.4
4.5
4.3
5.3
2.5
Inflation (CPI)
Y-o-y % change
8.7
-6.3
5.6
--
2.2
5.0
1.9 Jun.
Avg. % change
10.4
-2.8
2.3
4.0
4.8
3.3
3.2 Jun.
Total revenue
% of GDP
23.1
25.0
20.0
21.6
18.9
17.3
Total expenditure
% of GDP
23.9
21.3
20.2
22.6
20.8
19.2
Overall balance
% of GDP
-0.8
3.7
-0.2
-1.0
-1.9
-1.0
Overall balance without grants
% of GDP
-14.9
-12.2
-9.7
-9.5
-10.0
-8.9
-16.6 -114.0 -353.4
158.3
183.3
-81.3
26.2
48.3
10.1
44.9 Jun.
-8.1
15.3 Jun.
PUBLIC FINANCES
MONEY AND CREDIT
98.9 Jun.
Net claims on government
Annual % change
Credit to the economy
Annual % change
Broad money (M2)
Annual % change
25.5
6.8
29.6
Deposit (1-year)
Annual rate
3.0
3.0
3.0
3.0
3.0 Jun.
Lending (1-year)
Annual rate
16.0
16.0
16.0
16.0
16.0 Jun.
Exports f.o.b. (USD)
Annual % change
19.6
-5.1
4.0
18.6
93.4
-25.2
Imports f.o.b. (USD)
Annual % change
53.4
1.0
-2.3
22.0
47.2
-40.1
Current account
% of GDP
-3.3
-5.7
-8.3
-6.9
-1.6
-4.7
Current acc. excl. official transf. (a)
% of GDP
-8.7
-13.0
-5.3
-9.8
-4.8
-6.4
1,114
1,068
163
174
189
71.5
24.9
56.4
6.0
39.1
INTEREST RATES
BALANCE OF PAYMENTS
EXTERNAL DEBT
USD millions
Total stock
Debt service
% of GDP
132.7
121.9
19.1
17.5
17.8
% of exports (b)
915.2
857.7
135.9
71.3
102.9
% of exports (b)
34.5
16.0
766.4
0.2
0.3
Average rate
447.8
472.2
495.4
471.9
Annual % change
4.8
2.2
-4.2
2.7
(d)
0.3 Jul.
Annual % change
9.7
-1.2
-6.3
1.9
(d)
2.0 Jun
EXCHANGE RATES
USD / CFA franc (official market)
Nominal EERI (Index, 100: 2000)
Real EERI (index: 100: 2000)
(c)
(c)
533.8 Jul.
Sources: BCEAO branch in Guinea-Bissau, IMF and Banco de Portugal calculations.
Notes: (a) Official transfers exclude revenue from fishing licences; (b) Exports of goods and services; (c) Effective exchange rate index (EERI),
calculated on the basis of official exchange rates applied to the currencies of Guinea-Bissau's four main trading partners over the period
2005/11; (d) Changes from the previous December.
Guinea-Bissau
67
Table A.II.3.2.
GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT | Current prices, billions of CFA francs
II
2008
2009
2010
2011
Est.
2012
Proj.
179.4
170.4
189.9
212.7
223.3
179.4
170.4
189.9
212.7
223.3
Secondary sector
52.1
49.9
53.7
57.7
62.7
Industry (a)
49.0
46.7
48.7
52.1
56.7
3.1
3.2
5.0
5.6
5.9
BANCO DE PORTUGAL | ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENTS IN PORTUGUESE-SPEAKING AFRICAN COUNTRIES AND TIMOR-LESTE 2011/2012
68
Primary sector
Agriculture, forestry and fishing
Construction
Tertiary sector
140.5
150.8
156.3
174.3
186.3
Trade, restaurants and hotels
74.1
80.1
76.3
85.5
90.6
Transportation and communication
16.5
15.9
18.1
20.3
23.1
Public administration
33.6
40.5
46.3
51.3
54.4
Banking, insurance and other services
16.3
14.3
15.6
17.2
18.2
372.0
371.1
399.9
444.6
472.3
14.9
19.4
23.5
25.9
27.4
Gross Domestic Product
(market prices)
386.9
390.5
423.4
470.5
499.7
Consumption
413.5
429.3
458.8
474.1
518.8
Investment
23.5
24.6
28.1
33.8
34.9
Public
13.7
17.1
18.1
19.4
19.2
Private
9.8
7.5
10.0
14.4
15.7
437.0
453.9
486.9
507.9
553.7
77.0
73.0
84.5
136.2
115.5
Total demand
514.0
526.9
571.4
644.1
669.2
Imports
127.1
136.5
148.1
173.6
169.4
Gross Domestic Product
(at factor costs)
Indirect taxes
Domestic demand
Exports
Memo items:
Gross domestic savings
-26.6
-38.9
-35.5
-3.6
-19.1
Nominal GDPmp (USD millions)
864.1
826.9
854.6
997.1
1,059.0
GDPmp deflator (annual change, per cent)
13.3
-2.4
3.8
5.5
3.6
Nominal GDPmp (annual change, per cent)
16.9
0.9
8.4
11.1
6.2
3.2
3.4
4.5
5.3
2.5
Real GDPmp (annual change, per cent)
Sources: BCEAO branch in Guinea-Bissau and Banco de Portugal calculations.
Notes: (a) Includes electricity and water.
Table A.II.3.3.
CONSUMER PRICE INDEX | Per cent
[1]
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
December
December
December
December
December
December
December
December
December
December
December
2010
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
2011
2012
Cumulative
change
Year-on-year
change
[2]
[3]
-1.9
2.5
Average
change
[4]
69
-1.9
3.3
2.5
3.3
0.7
0.7
-3.5
2.9
2.9
0.8
0.3
0.3
3.4
3.2
3.2
2.0
9.3
9.3
4.6
8.7
8.7
10.4
-6.3
-6.3
-2.8
5.6
5.6
2.3
2.2
2.2
4.8
1.7
1.7
-1.0
-3.4
0.4
2.1
0.0
-3.7
-0.3
1.7
0.5
-4.0
0.2
1.9
1.4
-3.9
0.1
2.1
1.2
-3.8
0.8
2.9
1.3
-3.4
0.4
3.2
1.3
-2.8
1.7
5.0
3.2
-2.0
0.0
5.0
3.4
-1.1
-0.2
4.8
5.0
0.0
0.5
5.3
5.2
1.2
0.3
5.6
5.6
2.3
January
1.4
1.4
5.3
2.8
February
-0.8
0.6
4.1
3.1
March
0.6
1.2
5.0
3.5
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
1.1
0.2
2.3
2.5
6.0
6.1
3.9
4.3
January
February
March
April
May
June
II
Guinea-Bissau
Monthly
change
1.9
4.5
7.2
4.8
-0.2
4.3
6.7
5.2
-0.5
3.8
4.4
5.3
0.4
4.2
4.8
5.4
-1.4
2.8
3.6
5.3
-0.2
2.5
2.8
5.1
-0.3
2.2
2.2
4.8
1.3
1.3
2.2
4.6
4.5
0.1
1.5
3.1
-0.3
1.1
2.2
4.2
0.8
1.9
1.9
3.9
1.0
2.9
2.7
3.6
1.2
4.2
1.9
3.2
Sources: BCEAO branch in Guinea-Bissau and Banco de Portugal calculations.
Notes: [1] month (n) / month (n-1); [2] month (n) / previous December; [3] month (n) / month (n) of the
previous year; [4] last 12 months / previous 12 months.
Table A.II.3.4.
BALANCE OF PAYMENTS | Billions of CFA francs
II
2008
2009
2010
Est.
2011
Proj.
Est.
2012
Proj.
BANCO DE PORTUGAL | ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENTS IN PORTUGUESE-SPEAKING AFRICAN COUNTRIES AND TIMOR-LESTE 2011/2012
70
Current account
Excluding official transfers (a)
-12.9
-22.4
-35.0
-32.7
-7.3
-23.5
-33.7
-50.6
-45.3
-46.0
-22.5
-32.2
-31.6
-38.1
-34.6
-45.9
-5.5
-22.0
57.4
57.4
62.7
67.2
114.2
93.2
46.2
46.8
51.8
55.4
104.4
82.9
-89.0
-95.5
-97.3
-113.1
-119.7
-115.2
Services
-18.5
-25.4
-29.0
-21.1
-31.9
-32.0
Income
-6.6
-5.2
-1.1
-0.2
-6.0
-3.6
-6.3
-5.4
-0.9
-0.2
-0.1
-0.3
43.8
46.3
29.7
34.5
36.1
34.0
28.7
31.2
15.5
18.3
19.5
17.0
16.4
28.5
9.4
13.3
12.4
6.2
7.9
3.0
5.2
5.0
4.3
8.3
15.1
15.1
14.2
16.2
16.6
17.0
15.5
32.0
49.3
32.7
37.4
26.5
-12.7
-2.2
-450.8
9.0
9.0
2.4
0.1
8.5
4.7
9.4
9.4
2.9
Trade balance
Exports (f.o.b.)
of which: Cashews
Imports (f.o.b.)
of which: scheduled interest
Current transfers
Public
of which: balance of payments support
of which: fishing revenue
Private
Capital and financial account
Borrowing
Disbursements
of which: Projects
0.1
8.5
4.7
9.4
9.4
2.9
Scheduled amortisation
-12.8
-10.7
-455.5
-0.4
-0.4
-0.5
Capital transfers and FDI (net)
28.6
32.6
494.7
25.4
29.5
25.1
4.9
0.0
454.1
0.0
0.0
0.0
-0.4
1.6
5.4
-1.7
-1.1
-1.0
2.6
9.6
14.3
0.0
30.1
3.0
-2.6
-9.6
-14.3
0.0
-30.1
-3.0
-8.6
-8.4
-3.0
-3.5
-31.0
-3.0
6.0
-1.2
-11.3
3.5
0.9
0.0
of which: Debt relief
Short-term capital, errors and omissions
Overall balance
Financing
Change in official reserves (increase: - )
Change in arrears (decrease: - )
(b)
Sources: BCEAO branch in Guinea-Bissau, IMF and Banco de Portugal calculations.
Notes: (a) Revenue from fishing licences is not considered official transfers; (b) Includes the effects of exchange rate fluctuations.
Table A.II.3.5.
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2005 to 2011
II
Cape Verde
0.6
0.1
0.0
0.1
0.1
0.2
0.1
0.1
71
China
0.1
0.0
0.0
0.2
0.2
1.4
1.3
0.6
France
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.8
2.0
1.1
0.9
The Gambia
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.2
0.0
0.0
0.0
Guinea-Bissau
MERCHANDISE EXPORTS | By country of destination, as a percentage of total
Netherlands
India
Portugal
Senegal
0.1
0.0
0.3
0.0
0.4
0.5
0.0
0.2
61.5
51.6
66.6
73.9
63.2
88.2
78.8
81.1
1.8
0.5
0.8
0.3
1.5
2.6
1.3
2.8
0.4
22.5
26.2
17.4
27.4
1.5
0.9
2.2
Singapore
14.9
22.8
2.3
2.1
0.0
1.3
13.4
9.6
Other
20.5
2.4
3.7
5.9
6.2
2.2
3.0
2.5
Sources: BCEAO branch in Guinea-Bissau, IMF and Banco de Portugal calculations.
Table A.II.3.6.
MERCHANDISE IMPORTS | By country of origin, as a percentage of total
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2005 to 2011
China
2.3
1.6
0.2
0.4
2.6
4.1
1.7
2.1
Spain
1.1
0.9
1.9
1.1
2.7
1.8
3.4
3.1
France
4.5
2.6
0.5
2.2
4.1
11.4
6.0
4.7
The Gambia
1.4
7.4
1.4
2.0
0.9
1.1
0.8
2.1
Netherlands
8.0
6.3
5.6
4.5
4.9
5.6
4.2
5.9
India
0.6
0.3
2.4
1.0
0.3
1.0
0.7
0.8
Japan
0.7
0.7
0.2
1.5
1.3
4.4
3.7
2.6
Portugal
21.0
16.1
19.7
22.4
24.4
33.5
38.4
29.8
Senegal
45.6
44.5
44.2
29.0
25.9
8.2
13.5
21.6
Other
14.9
19.8
23.9
35.9
32.9
28.9
27.5
27.3
Sources: BCEAO branch in Guinea-Bissau, IMF and Banco de Portugal calculations.
Table A.II.3.7.
EXTERNAL DEBT | USD millions
II
2007
2008
2009
Est.
2010
Est.
2011
Est.
2012
Prog.
1,244.2
1,112.8
1,049.7
Multilateral creditors
588.4
531.7
494.4
Bilateral creditors
655.9
581.1
555.3
1.3
1.2
1.1
1,245.6
1,113.9
360.1
388.6
1,068.1
163.2
174.5
188.5
427.5
0.0
0.0
Medium or long-term debt
359.3
387.8
0.0
Multilateral creditors
37.8
39.4
Bilateral creditors
321.5
348.4
Paris Club
237.0
254.3
84.5
94.1
0.8
0.8
BANCO DE PORTUGAL | ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENTS IN PORTUGUESE-SPEAKING AFRICAN COUNTRIES AND TIMOR-LESTE 2011/2012
72
Medium or long-term debt
Short-term debt
Total external debt
of which: Arrears
Other countries
Short-term debt
Scheduled medium and long-term debt service
35.5
42.0
18.8
920.4
0.4
0.6
Principal
25.5
28.6
8.7
919.4
0.0
0.2
Interest
10.0
13.4
10.2
1.0
0.4
0.4
(% of exports of goods and services)
Total external debt
1,162.2
915.2
857.7
135.9
71.3
102.9
33.1
34.5
16.0
766.4
0.2
0.3
Principal
23.8
23.5
7.4
765.5
0.0
0.1
Interest
9.4
11.0
8.6
0.8
0.2
0.2
19.1
17.5
17.8
Scheduled medium and long-term debt service
(% of GDP)
Total external debt
180.1
132.7
Sources: BCEAO branch in Guinea-Bissau, IMF and Banco de Portugal calculations.
Note: Figures from 2009 reflect the impact of debt relied under the HIPC initiative and the MDRI.
121.9
Table A.II.3.8.
GOVERNMENT OPERATIONS | Billions of CFA francs
2008
2009
Est.
2010
Est.
Proj.
2011
Est.
l.e. (a)
2012
Proj.
89.3
97.5
84.6
88.8
86.6
97.5
101.6
34.6
35.4
44.6
49.9
48.5
97.2
61.8
13.7
8.8
11.5
11.9
10.1
84.9
15.1
7.9
3.0
5.2
5.0
4.3
86.0
8.3
20.9
26.6
33.1
37.9
38.4
101.3
46.7
54.7
62.1
40.0
38.9
38.1
97.9
39.8
of which: Projects
38.4
33.6
30.6
25.7
25.7
100.0
33.6
of which: Budget support
16.4
28.5
9.4
13.3
12.4
93.2
6.2
92.4
83.2
85.5
97.9
95.7
97.8
106.4
52.4
47.2
49.3
55.3
57.9
104.7
61.8
20.5
20.5
20.7
23.8
24.2
101.7
26.3
II
1.1. Current revenue
Non-tax revenue
of which: Fishing licences
Tax revenue
1.2. Grants
2. Total expenditure
2.1. Current expenditure
Compensation of employees
Goods and services
8.0
6.4
8.6
9.1
9.2
101.1
11.0
10.9
11.0
10.7
12.6
12.1
96.0
12.5
Scheduled debt interest
7.3
1.8
0.7
0.8
0.6
75.0
0.3
Other expenditure
5.7
7.5
8.6
9.0
11.9
132.2
11.8
2.2. Capital expenditure
40.0
36.0
36.2
42.5
37.8
88.9
44.6
3. Current balance: (1.1.) - (2.1.)
-17.8
-11.8
-4.7
-5.4
-9.4
174.1
0.0
4. Overall bal. excl. grants: (1.) - (2.) - (1.2.)
-57.8
-47.8
-40.9
-48.0
-47.2
98.3
-44.6
5. Overall balance: (1.) - (2.)
(commitment basis)
-3.1
14.3
-0.9
-9.1
-9.1
100.0
-4.8
6. Change in arrears
10.0
-3.6
-7.7
-3.5
-3.8
-1.5
6.1. Domestic
4.8
-4.9
-7.7
-3.5
-3.8
-1.5
6.2. External
5.2
1.3
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
7. Items in transit, errors and omissions
-0.5
0.0
-1.8
0.0
0.0
0.0
8. Overall balance: (5.) + (6.) + (7.)
(cash basis)
6.4
10.7
-10.5
-12.6
-12.9
-6.3
9. Financing
-6.4
-10.7
10.3
12.6
12.9
6.3
-4.6
-10.5
7.1
0.0
0.0
0.0
-4.6
-10.5
7.1
0.0
0.0
0.0
-1.8
-0.2
3.2
9.1
9.4
2.8
0.1
1.0
4.7
9.4
9.4
2.9
-12.8
-10.7
-455.5
-0.4
0.0
-0.1
4.9
5.7
454.1
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.1
3.5
3.5
3.5
Transfers
9.1. Domestic (net)
of which: Banking system
9.2. External (net)
of which: Disbursements
of which: Amortisation
of which: Debt relief
10. Financing gap
(b)
Sources: BCEAO branch in Guinea-Bissau, IMF and Banco de Portugal calculations.
Notes: (a) Level of budget execution: as a percentage of budgeted/programmed amounts; (b) Net lending (+)/ net borrowing (-).
Guinea-Bissau
73
1. Total revenue
Table A.II.3.9.
MONETARY SURVEY | Billions of CFA francs
II
BANCO DE PORTUGAL | ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENTS IN PORTUGUESE-SPEAKING AFRICAN COUNTRIES AND TIMOR-LESTE 2011/2012
74
2008
Net foreign assets
2009
2010
2011
Proj.
Est.
2011/2010
[1]
[2]
2012
Jun.12/2011
[1]
[2]
Proj. June
66.6
80.6
93.3
80.1 119.3
27.9
22.0
-1.7
-1.1
Central Bank
53.0
61.4
64.4
65.2
95.4
48.2
26.2
104.7 117.3
68.9
90.3
-5.4
-3.0
Commercial banks
13.6
19.2
28.9
14.9
23.9
-17.3
-4.2
35.8
27.0
13.3
1.8
Total domestic credit
28.5
20.2
32.0
48.6
61.7
92.8
25.0
57.7
Net claims on government
11.1
-1.6
4.0
16.1
11.2
183.3
4.2
2.1
Credit to the economy
17.4
21.8
34.0
32.5
50.5
48.3
20.9
-5.2
-4.7
-6.7
-3.0
-7.7
15.2
-0.8
Other assets (net)
95.4
54.8
19.5
22.3
98.9
6.4
55.6
73.1
44.9
13.1
-3.0
-12.9
68.2
-3.0
Total assets
90.0
96.1 118.5 125.6 173.3
46.2
159.3 199.8
15.3
Broad Money (M2)
90.0
96.1
39.1
159.3 199.8
15.3
124.6 125.6 173.3
Currency in circulation
54.1
57.1
64.1
76.8
85.5
33.5
82.7
102.8
20.1
Demand deposits
28.6
33.1
49.3
…
63.4
28.6
…
71.2
12.2
7.3
5.8
11.1
…
24.3
118.1
…
25.9
6.3
96.1 118.5 125.6 173.3
46.2
159.3 199.8
15.3
Quasi-money / time deposits
Total liabilities
90.0
Sources: BCEAO branch in Guinea-Bissau, BCEAO, IMF and Banco de Portugal calculations.
Notes:
[1] Change from the end of the previous year; [2] Change from the money supply at the end of the previous year (liquidity
expansion/contraction factors).
Table A.II.3.10.
INTEREST RATES | Annual rates, per cent
2007
Dec.
2008
Dec.
2009
Dec.
2010
Dec.
2011
Dec.
2012
Jun.
Up to 90 days
1.5
1.5
1.5
1.5
1.5
1.5
91-180 days
1.8
1.8
1.8
1.8
1.8
1.8
181-365 days
3.0
3.0
3.0
3.0
3.0
3.0
Up to 90 days
14.0
14.0
14.0
14.0
14.0
14.0
90-180 days
15.0
15.0
15.0
15.0
15.0
15.0
181-365 days
16.0
16.0
16.0
16.0
16.0
16.0
Overdraft on demand deposits
18.0
18.0
18.0
18.0
18.0
18.0
Discount rate
4.75
4.75
4.25
4.25
4.25
4.25
Reserve ratio
3.0
3.0
3.0
7.0
7.0
5.0
9.3
8.7
-6.3
5.6
2.2
1.9
Deposits
Time deposits:
Credit
Central bank operations
Banking system
Memo item:
Inflation (monthly year-on-year rate of change)
Sources: BCEAO branch in Guinea-Bissau and IMF.
Table A.II.3.11.
EXCHANGE RATES | Average rates
USD / CFA franc
Nominal
2010
2011
2012
II
Real
75
Guinea-Bissau
EUR / CFA franc
EERI (a)(b)
Index, 100: 2000
2001
655.96
728.18
101.44
100.31
2002
655.96
695.86
104.21
103.26
2003
655.96
579.28
110.39
102.41
2004
655.96
527.53
113.33
102.45
2005
655.96
531.17
111.01
100.61
2006
2007
655.96
521.92
114.01
101.45
655.96
478.68
113.49
101.62
2008
655.96
447.78
118.99
111.44
2009
655.96
472.19
121.63
110.07
2010
2011
655.96
495.42
116.56
103.17
655.96
471.86
119.65
105.11
January
655.96
459.68
120.41
107.21
February
655.96
479.35
118.77
106.10
March
655.96
483.48
117.50
103.83
April
655.96
489.24
115.89
101.80
May
655.96
522.31
114.25
100.54
June
655.96
537.36
113.65
100.38
July
655.96
513.80
116.00
102.16
August
655.96
508.86
116.19
103.89
September
655.96
502.27
116.19
103.30
October
655.96
472.01
117.50
103.74
November
655.96
480.43
117.26
103.78
December
655.96
496.21
115.88
102.14
January
655.96
491.19
116.70
103.44
February
655.96
480.62
117.71
103.48
March
655.96
468.61
118.43
103.82
April
655.96
454.06
119.33
104.84
May
June
655.96
457.30
119.57
105.36
655.96
455.94
119.61
105.90
July
655.96
459.91
119.52
106.35
August
655.96
457.56
120.95
107.24
September
655.96
476.52
120.86
106.95
October
655.96
478.75
121.81
106.02
November
655.96
483.97
122.45
105.96
December
655.96
497.83
118.85
101.94
January
655.96
508.87
117.01
101.47
February
655.96
496.08
119.06
103.34
March
655.96
496.92
120.37
103.39
April
655.96
498.40
121.90
104.66
May
655.96
513.07
122.34
106.43
June
655.96
523.69
119.50
103.94
July
655.96
533.82
119.16
…
Sources:
BCEAO branch in Guinea-Bissau, IMF and Banco de Portugal calculations.
Notes:
(a) Effective exchange rate index (EERI), calculated on the basis of official exchange rates applied to the currencies of GuineaBissau's four main trading partners over the period from 2005 to 2011 (appreciation + ; depreciation - ).
II.4.1. SUMMARY
Output grew by 7.3%, i.e. at the same level as average values in the past decade – a solid 7.6% growth
II
rate, much higher than that recorded in Sub-Saharan Africa (5.8%). Relations with the IMF played an
79
important and constant role throughout the macroeconomic stabilisation process. A three-year
Mozambique
The performance of the Mozambican economy in 2011 was positive in spite of the international crisis.
programme under the Policy Support Instrument (PSI) is currently in force, which was signed in June
2010.
Table II.4.1.
MAIN ECONOMIC INDICATORS
Real GDP (annual percentage change)
Inflation (average percentage change)
Broad money (percentage change)
Current account (% of GDP)
Fiscal balance (% of GDP)
External debt (% of GDP)
2009
2010
Est.
2011
Est.
2012
Prog.
6.3
7.1
7.3
6.7
3.8
12.4
10.9
7.2
32.6
24.6
7.8
18.8
-12.2
-11.5
-14.4
-12.7
-5.5
-3.8
-5.4
-6.4
39.6
38.8
31.5
--
Sources: IMF and Banco de Moçambique.
The dynamics of Mozambican output in 2011 relied mainly on private consumption and growth in
exports of goods from both the various megaprojects (aluminum, electricity, natural gas, titanium and
coal) and traditional products. Notwithstanding the good performance, the increase in the demand for
imported investment goods, driven by the expansion of megaprojects and the public infrastructure plan,
and higher imports of services and repatriated dividends caused a deterioration of the external current
account deficit. However, strong capital inflows associated with foreign direct investment led to a
foreign reserve level equivalent to 5.2 months of the year’s goods and services imports (-0.2 months
versus 2010).
This acceleration in externally financed public investment affected public account developments in
2011, raising the overall deficit to 5.4% of GDP, despite positive tax revenue collection and
containment in some current expenditure categories. The deficit was financed through recourse not
only to external loans but also to credit granted by the domestic banking sector.
Monetary policy was mostly restrained by a need to counter inflationary pressures experienced since
2010, keeping a restrictive nature throughout most of 2011, with repercussions on the pace of
expansion of broad money and credit to the economy. As a result of this policy, associated with a
prudent fiscal policy especially in the first half of the year, and given favourable developments in food
and oil prices, inflation followed a marked downward trend over the year, which extended into the
early months of 2012.
Based on these positive results, and with the purpose of fostering the expansion of credit to the private
sector, in 2011 the central bank started a progressive reversal of monetary conditions, reducing
reference rates and reserve requirements, in addition to having resorted to liquidity-supply operations in
interbank markets.
the end of 2011 (8.9% of GDP in 2010), albeit influenced by an appreciation of the metical over the
year, which reduced the amount of grants expressed in local currency.
II
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84
Table II.4.3.
BUDGET EXECUTION | As a percentage of GDP
2009
2010
2011
Est.
2012
Prog.
Total revenue
Current revenue
Grants
Total expenditure
Current expenditure
27.1
29.3
30.5
28.8
17.6
20.3
22.5
22.2
9.5
8.9
8.0
6.6
32.6
33.1
35.9
35.2
18.0
18.7
19.9
19.8
Interest
Capital expenditure
Net lending
Current balance
0.5
0.8
1.0
1.1
12.9
13.7
14.1
12.1
3.3
Overall balance
1.7
0.6
1.7
-0.4
1.5
2.7
2.4
-5.5
-3.8
-5.4
-6.4
Sources: IMF and Banco de Moçambique.
Despite some containment in current expenditure, mainly in goods and services, compensation of
employees grew by 22.5% from 2010, to close to 10% of GDP. Although the phasing-out of the fuel
subsidy recorded under ‘transfers and subsidies’ is already being implemented, in 2011 it reached once
again a significant amount, equivalent to 1.1% of GDP in 2011 (1.5% of GDP in the previous year).
In the second half of 2011 the public investment programme accelerated, especially in projects funded
by external grants, raising capital expenditure to 14.1% of GDP at the end of the year (13.7% in 2010)
and leading to a worsening of the overall deficit to 5.4% of GDP. This deficit was mostly funded
through recourse to external loans, although in 2011 the State also resorted to the banking system,
countering the trend observed in recent years.
The goal of limiting the effects on the Mozambican economy of an adverse external environment, as
well as a need to meet the commitments assumed in the recently approved poverty reduction strategy1
(one of the foundations of the PSI in force), has led Mozambican authorities to forecast that the 2012
expenditure level will remain similar to that recorded in 2011. The budget for this year thus points to
renewed buoyancy in public investment and maintained priority expenditure levels, while simultaneously
seeking to contain growth in compensation of employees (especially as regards hiring in non-priority
areas) and continuing and accelerating the phasing-out of fuel subsidies (partly countered by the recent
oil price increases).
Given the expected reduction of grants as a consequence of the international crisis and some
anticipated deceleration in tax revenue (already noticeable in the outturn for the first quarter), the
overall deficit is expected to rise to 6.4% of GDP in 2012. Greater financing requirements are again
likely to be covered by external loans (especially World Bank support), seeking to limit recourse to the
domestic banking system as a way of avoiding constraints for the private sector when accessing bank
credit.
1 Action Plan to Reduce Poverty of May 2011, presenting a strategic allocation of recourses in priority areas, based on the following general
objectives: (i) increasing agricultural and fishing production and productivity, (ii) promoting employment and (iii) fostering human and social
development. The document also stresses that the range of these objectives depends on a stable and competitive macroeconomic scenario,
efficient and effective public finance management and transparent, upright and fair governance.
Table A.II.4.1.
MAIN ECONOMIC INDICATORS
II
BANCO DE PORTUGAL | ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENTS IN PORTUGUESE-SPEAKING AFRICAN COUNTRIES AND TIMOR-LESTE 2011/2012
88
Units
2008
2009
Est.
Est.
2010
2011
Est. Prog.
2012
Est.
Prog.
Est.
OUTPUT AND PRICES
Nominal GDP
EUR millions
6,712 6,835 6,997 9,351 8,932 10,071
Annual % change
6.8
6.3
7.1
7.2
7.3
6.7
Year-on-year % change
11.8
2.3
17.4
8.4
6.1
5.6
3.0 Aug.
Average % change
14.5
3.8
12.4
9.5
10.9
7.2
4.8 Aug.
Total revenue
% of GDP
25.6
27.1
29.3
29.1
30.5
28.8
Total expenditure
% of GDP
27.9
32.6
33.1
35.8
35.9
35.2
Overall balance
% of GDP
-2.3
-5.5
-3.8
-6.7
-5.4
-6.4
Overall balance excl. grants
% of GDP
-11.8
-15.0
-12.7
-14.5
-13.3
-13.0
Net claims on general gov.
Annual % change
-13.1
-1.6
-6.5
12.4
53.6
55.9
(c)
16.0 Jul.
Credit to the economy
Annual % change
45.9
58.6
29.3
17.8
6.4
22.7
(c)
5.5 Jul.
Broad money (M3)
Annual % change
20.3
32.6
24.6
18.3
7.8
18.8
(c)
9.8 Jul.
Deposit (1-year)
Annual rate
11.6
10.2
12.2
13.4
12.2 Jul.
Lending (1-year)
Annual rate
21.8
19.2
21.7
23.7
21.8 Jul.
Real GDP
Inflation (Consumer Price Index)
PUBLIC FINANCES
MONEY AND CREDIT
INTEREST RATES
BALANCE OF PAYMENTS
Merchandise exports (in USD)
Annual % change
10.0
-19.1
8.7
10.3
19.0
12.2
Merchandise imports (in USD)
Annual % change
29.6
-6.1
2.6
10.2
19.2
6.5
Current account
% of GDP
-11.9
-12.2
-11.5
-11.9
-14.4
-12.7
Current acc. excl. official transf.
% of GDP
-19.6
-19.1
-17.8
--
-20.6
4.7
5.4
5.4
International reserves
Months of imports
(b)
5.0
5.2
-5.2
EXTERNAL DEBT
Total stock
EUR millions
% of GDP
Debt service
2,423 2,707 2,717
36.1
% of exports
(b)
% of exports
(b)
2,638
38.8
31.5
119.2 142.9 137.9
108.0
2.3
39.6
1.8
2.3
2.1
EXCHANGE RATES
MZM/EUR (official market)
Average rate
35.72 38.95 45.44
40.28
35.91 Aug.
MZM/USD (official market)
Average rate
24.17 26.71 32.99
29.06
28.53 Aug.
MZM/USD (parallel market)
Average rate
25.15 29.24 35.65
31.04
29.47 Aug.
Nominal EERI (Index, 100: 2000)(a)
% change
(c)
Real EERI (Index, 100: 2000)(a)
% change
(c)
19.2
-30.5
-7.1
35.4
-4.6 Aug.
26.8
-31.4
5.9
37.9
-7.9 Aug.
Sources: Banco de Moçambique, IMF and Banco de Portugal calculations.
Notes: (a) Effective exchange rate index (EERI), calculated on the basis of official exchange rates applied to the currencies of Mozambique's
four main trading partners over the period 2005/09 (appreciation: +; depreciation: -); (b) Imports of goods and services; (c) Change
from the previous December.
Table A.II.4.2.
GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT | Current prices, MZM millions
Agriculture and livestock
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
Est.
Est.
Est.
Est.
Est.
Prog.
52,829
67,231
71,652
89,229
102,049
49,431
63,436
67,425
83,974
96,335
Fishing
3,398
3,795
4,227
5,255
5,714
Secondary sector
49,338
52,211
57,134
69,103
76,364
2,967
3,350
3,566
4,074
5,042
Manufacturing
29,370
30,906
34,449
39,880
43,104
Electricity and water
11,065
11,322
11,586
13,277
14,828
5,936
6,633
7,533
11,872
13,390
88,484
101,223
113,536
132,159
152,614
28,970
33,581
37,735
46,400
55,877
Mining and quarrying
Construction
Tertiary sector
Trade and repairs
Restaurants and hotels
Transport and communication
Financial services
3,081
3,504
3,904
4,837
6,205
19,011
22,237
24,913
28,666
33,030
89
9,088
9,522
10,508
12,034
12,813
Real estate renting
12,225
13,331
14,254
14,883
15,726
Public services
18,164
21,206
24,751
28,109
31,805
Other
-2,055
-2,158
-2,529
-2,770
-2,842
190,652
220,664
242,322
290,491
331,028
16,991
19,111
23,891
27,487
28,753
Gross Domestic Product (market prices)
207,644
239,775
266,213
317,978
359,780
426,000
Consumption
367,048
Gross Domestic Product (at factor costs)
Indirect taxes
191,136
222,204
248,737
285,093
325,903
Public
24,738
29,691
34,368
44,020
48,896
Private
166,398
192,513
214,369
241,073
277,007
31,783
41,708
39,796
58,674
70,331
Gross Fixed Capital Formation
33,504
39,614
43,959
51,862
64,701
Changes in inventory
-1,721
2,094
-4,163
6,812
5,630
222,919
263,912
288,533
343,767
396,234
464,176
64,146
72,638
73,799
89,565
98,372
109,669
287,065
336,550
362,332
433,332
494,606
573,844
79,423
96,775
96,119
115,354
134,826
147,844
16,508
17,571
17,476
32,885
33,877
58,952
8,123
9,919
9,967
9,640
11,607
14,200
GDPmp deflator (annual % change)
7.4
8.1
4.4
11.5
5.4
11.0
Nominal GDPmp (annual % change)
15.2
15.5
11.0
19.4
13.1
18.4
7.3
6.8
6.3
7.1
7.3
6.7
Investment
Domestic demand
Exports of goods and services
Overall demand
Imports of goods and services
97,128
Memo item:
Gross domestic savings
Nominal GDPmp (USD millions)
Real GDPmp (annual % change)
Sources: Banco de Moçambique, IMF and Banco de Portugal calculations.
II
Mozambique
Primary sector
2007
Table A.II.4.3.
CONSUMER PRICE INDEX | Per cent
II
BANCO DE PORTUGAL | ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENTS IN PORTUGUESE-SPEAKING AFRICAN COUNTRIES AND TIMOR-LESTE 2011/2012
90
Monthly change
[1]
Year-on-year change
[2]
Average change
[3]
2002
December
2.5
9.1
17.3
2003
December
2.8
11.4
11.5
2004
December
1.9
9.3
11.4
2005
December
3.9
13.1
7.0
2006
December
2.2
8.1
13.6
2007
December
3.2
12.1
9.2
2008
December
0.9
11.8
14.5
2009
December
2.1
2.3
3.8
2010
December
3.7
17.4
12.4
2011
December
1.9
6.1
10.9
2011
January
1.6
16.2
13.5
February
1.2
15.1
14.2
March
0.2
14.0
14.7
April
0.0
12.8
15.0
May
0.5
11.8
14.9
June
-0.3
10.0
14.4
July
0.4
10.2
14.0
-1.1
9.1
13.5
1.5
10.0
13.0
August
September
October
2012
-0.4
9.0
12.5
November
0.4
8.0
11.9
December
1.9
6.1
10.9
January
0.6
5.1
10.0
February
-0.2
3.6
9.0
0.2
3.6
8.2
April
-0.2
3.4
7.4
May
-0.5
2.3
6.6
June
-0.3
2.3
5.9
July
0.0
1.9
5.3
August
0.0
3.0
4.8
March
Sources:
Banco de Moçambique, National Institute of Statistics of Mozambique and Banco de Portugal calculations.
Notes:
The basis for calculating the CPI was changed in 2004 (to December 2004), as well as its structure (new products and
weights).
[1] month (n) / month (n-1); [2] month (n) / month (n) of the previous year; [3] last 12 months / previous 12 months.
Table A.II.4.4.
BALANCE OF PAYMENTS | USD millions
Current account
Excluding official transfers
Trade balance
Exports (f.o.b.)
2009
2010
Est.
Prog.
2011
Q1
Est.
2012
Prog.
Q1
-1,179
-1,948
-1,220
-1,901
-1,113
-1,718
-1,380
--
-386
-610
-1,673
-2,394
-1,803
--
-524
-683
-990
-1,275
-1,179
-1,297
-475
-1,411
-1,344
-431
963
2,653
2,147
2,333
2,574
635
2,776
3,116
1,851
1,311
1,668
1,960
--
2,015
2,325
-3,643
-3,422
-3,512
-3,871
-4,187
-4,460
-754
-791
-900
-1,035
-1,547
-1,508
Services
-410
-457
-506
-615
-794
-895
-185
Income
-631
-251
-85
-225
11
-207
-239
-38
-492
-224
0
-219
--
-157
-254
--
-28
-20
-30
--
-35
--
-11
of which: Megaprojects
Imports (c.i.f.)
of which: Megaprojects
of which: Dividends f/ megaproj.
Scheduled interest
Current transfers
Official transfers
of which: External grants
Private transfers
Capital and financial account
Capital account
Financial account
-1,110
--180
-9
--1,394
--
852
763
657
757
258
738
675
131
768
682
605
--
224
721
--
160
778
687
605
675
225
725
661
160
84
82
52
--
34
17
--
-29
1,190
1,288
1,116
1,471
201
2,131
2,005
292
421
422
348
431
72
355
422
73
769
866
768
1,040
129
1,777
1,583
219
FDI (net)
587
890
790
867
84
2,090
1,590
182
General gov. borrowing (net)
342
434
468
885
63
530
926
123
Private sector borrowing (net)
-97
-487
-348
-343
100
-610
-671
-135
Other transactions (net) (a)
-64
28
-142
-368
-118
-234
-261
48
111
126
56
0
144
-136
0
179
Errors and omissions
Overall account
122
194
58
91
-42
322
200
-52
Financing
-122
-194
-58
-91
42
-322
-200
52
-140
-352
-87
-89
36
-321
-198
47
0
156
18
-2
5
-2
-2
5
18
2
10
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
Change in international reserves (net)(a)
Use of IMF funds (net) (b)
Exceptional financing
Change in arrears (decrease: - )
Financing gap (c)
Sources: Banco de Moçambique, IMF and Banco de Portugal calculations.
(a) In 2009, includes the use of an SDR allocation of SDR 108.8 million under investment liabilities of the monetary authorities,
resulting in an increase in international reserves; (b) Disbursements in 2009 and 2010 under the Exogenous Shocks Facility
arrangement; (c) Net borrowing (-) / net lending (+).
Notes:
II
91
Mozambique
2008
Table A.II.4.5.
MERCHANDISE EXPORTS | Destinations as a percentage of total exports
II
BANCO DE PORTUGAL | ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENTS IN PORTUGUESE-SPEAKING AFRICAN COUNTRIES AND TIMOR-LESTE 2011/2012
92
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2004 to 2011
Belgium
0.6
0.1
0.1
0.3
0.5
0.7
0.4
0.4
0.4
China
1.6
1.9
1.4
1.7
1.6
3.5
3.9
2.0
2.2
India
2.2
1.5
1.3
0.7
0.8
2.6
1.5
2.2
1.6
Netherlands
60.9
59.7
59.7
61.8
55.5
41.6
51.0
48.9
54.5
Malawi
3.3
2.8
1.0
0.7
1.4
2.2
1.2
3.6
1.9
Portugal
2.8
1.2
1.2
1.3
0.8
1.5
4.7
2.9
2.0
12.9
16.2
15.2
17.2
9.2
21.4
21.6
22.2
17.2
Spain
2.5
1.9
1.8
1.5
1.3
1.5
1.7
2.8
1.9
United States
0.6
2.2
0.3
0.2
0.5
1.9
0.9
0.3
0.8
Zimbabwe
2.3
2.9
3.2
2.9
2.1
3.4
3.2
3.6
3.0
10.3
9.6
14.7
11.7
26.2
19.6
10.0
11.2
14.6
South Africa
Other
Sources: Banco de Moçambique, IMF and Banco de Portugal calculations.
Table A.II.4.6.
MERCHANDISE IMPORTS | Origins as a percentage of total imports
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2004 to 2011
Australia
0.1
0.7
0.1
0.3
0.1
0.6
0.1
1.0
0.4
China
2.0
2.5
2.6
3.5
3.9
4.6
5.7
6.4
4.2
France
1.7
0.9
0.8
0.8
0.6
0.8
0.3
1.1
0.8
India
3.1
3.6
3.2
4.4
3.6
6.5
1.1
4.3
3.8
Japan
0.8
0.8
0.6
3.1
3.2
3.8
5.5
3.1
2.9
11.0
11.5
15.6
14.5
17.4
13.0
16.5
9.8
13.8
3.3
3.6
3.3
3.5
2.9
3.8
8.0
4.0
4.2
South Africa
41.4
42.9
36.3
32.4
29.1
35.5
51.2
37.0
37.9
United States
2.4
2.6
2.2
2.7
4.0
3.6
0.5
2.8
2.6
34.3
30.9
35.3
34.9
35.2
28.0
11.0
30.5
29.4
Netherlands
Portugal
Other
Sources: Banco de Moçambique, IMF and Banco de Portugal calculations.
Table A.II.4.7.
EXTERNAL DEBT | USD millions
2007
Est.
2008
Est.
2009
Est.
2010
Est.
2011
Est.
3,424.0
3,581.3
3,947.7
3,743.6
3,656.2
Multilateral creditors
1,543.4
1,672.9
2,229.0
2,436.6
--
Bilateral creditors
1,880.6
1,908.4
1,718.8
1,307.0
--
OECD countries
639.6
560.1
216.9
326.7
--
Paris Club countries (non-OECD)
159.9
159.9
159.7
158.1
--
Eastern European countries
107.1
107.2
227.5
148.5
--
Other countries
974.0
1,081.2
1,342.3
673.7
--
--
--
II
Short-term debt
Total external debt
--
--
--
3,424.0
3,581.3
3,947.7
3,743.6
3,656.2
47.6
69.1
49.2
63.2
72.7
Principal
31.9
41.5
28.7
33.1
37.7
Interest
15.7
27.6
20.4
30.1
35.0
Scheduled medium/long-term debt service
(% of exports of goods and services)
Total external debt
136.4
119.2
142.9
137.9
108.0
1.9
2.3
1.8
2.3
2.1
38.8
31.5
Debt service
(% of GDP)
Total external debt
Sources: Banco de Moçambique, IMF and Banco de Portugal calculations.
42.2
36.1
39.6
Mozambique
93
Medium or long-term debt
Table A.II.4.8.
GOVERNMENT OPERATIONS | MZM billions
II
BANCO DE PORTUGAL | ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENTS IN PORTUGUESE-SPEAKING AFRICAN COUNTRIES AND TIMOR-LESTE 2011/2012
94
2008
2009
2010
Est.
Est.
Est.
Budg.
Est.
l.e. (a)
Budg.
QI
l.e. (a)
61.33
72.03
93.18
104.70
109.75
104.8
122.68
24.64
20.1
38.27
46.73
64.48
76.79
81.12
105.6
94.57
18.96
20.0
4.25
5.26
7.94
9.23
9.58
103.8
11.66
2.91
25.0
34.02
41.47
56.54
67.56
71.54
105.9
82.91
16.04
19.4
Income taxes
11.72
13.72
18.48
22.01
24.89
113.1
27.49
5.24
19.0
Consumption taxes
18.05
22.89
31.69
37.69
38.42
101.9
45.76
8.49
18.5
3.59
4.08
5.26
6.53
6.73
103.1
8.00
1.63
20.4
1. Total revenue (b)
1.1. Current revenue
Non-tax revenue
Tax revenue
Taxes on international trade
Other taxes
2011
2012
0.65
0.78
1.10
1.33
1.51
113.5
1.66
0.69
41.4
22.64
25.30
28.34
27.91
28.63
102.6
28.11
5.68
20.2
66.89
86.70
105.19
128.94
129.10
100.1
150.09
26.11
17.4
37.63
47.87
59.56
72.99
71.50
98.0
84.46
18.91
22.4
19.27
23.62
29.11
36.25
35.66
98.4
41.35
10.75
26.0
Goods and services
9.71
11.72
13.09
16.85
15.57
92.4
19.84
3.90
19.7
Transfers and subsidies
7.40
11.17
14.69
16.58
16.46
99.3
18.63
3.21
17.3
Interest
1.26
1.36
2.67
3.31
3.58
108.2
4.63
0.97
21.0
2.2. Capital expenditure
27.74
34.41
43.70
44.27
50.60
114.3
51.74
7.03
13.6
Domestic financing
10.93
11.72
20.03
18.77
20.32
108.3
24.26
4.11
16.9
External financing
16.81
22.69
23.67
25.50
30.28
118.7
27.48
2.93
10.7
1.52
4.42
1.93
11.68
6.17
52.8
13.89
0.08
0.5
1.2. Grants
2. Total expenditure
(c)
2.1. Current expenditure
(d)
Compensation of employees
2.3. Net lending
3. Current balance: (1.1-2.1)
4. Overall bal. excl. grants: (1-2-1.2)
5. Overall balance: (1-2)
6. Financing
6.1. Domestic (net)
(e), (f)
of which: Banking system
6.2. External (net)
Disbursements (e)
Amortisation
7. Financing gap
(g)
0.64
-1.15
4.92
3.80
9.63
--
10.11
0.05
--
-28.20
-39.97
-40.35
-52.15
-47.98
--
-55.52
-7.15
--
-5.57
-14.67
-12.01
-24.24
-19.35
--
-27.41
-1.47
--
5.57
14.67
12.01
24.24
19.35
--
27.41
1.34
--
-4.08
1.17
-1.23
2.09
3.36
160.8
2.50
0.71
28.5
-1.31
11.29
0.00
0.00
0.01
--
0.00
--
--
9.65
13.50
13.25
22.15
15.99
72.2
24.91
0.63
2.5
9.56
14.20
14.28
23.26
17.11
73.6
27.19
1.02
3.8
-0.75
-0.70
-1.03
-1.11
-1.12
100.9
-2.27
-0.39
17.2
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
--
0.00
-0.13
--
Sources Banco de Moçambique, IMF and Banco de Portugal calculations.
Notes: (a) Level of budget execution, %; (b) Includes revenue that has not been classified; (c) Includes expenditure that has not been classified;
(d) Includes other current expenditure; (e) Includes movements related to a government account set abroad with the proceedings of the
Moatize coal mine concession; (f) For 2009 and 2010, includes privatisation receipts; (g) Net borrowing (-) /net lending (+).
Table A.II.4.9.
MONETARY SURVEY | MZM billions
Net foreign assets
Central Bank
Foreign assets
2011
2011/2010
Est.
Est. Prog.
Est.
[1]
63.8
79.9
75.2
73.0
-8.6
49.7
57.1
59.6
56.9
2012 2012p/2011 2012 2012 2012
[2] Prog.
[1]
[2]
Mar.
Jun.
Jul.
-5.1
98.2
34.5
17.5
72.1
77.8
82.2
-0.4
-0.2
73.0
28.3
11.2
55.4
60.0
64.5
59.6
68.9
--
66.9
-2.9
-1.5
--
--
--
65.8
70.3
75.0
-10.0
-11.8
--
-10.0
-15.1
1.3
--
--
--
-10.4
-10.3
-10.5
Commercial banks
14.1
22.8
15.7
16.1
-29.2
-5.0
25.2
56.2
6.3
16.6
17.8
17.7
Net domestic assets
60.0
80.2
98.1
92.6
15.5
9.3 118.1
27.6
17.7
95.1 100.4
98.8
Net claims on general gov -11.5
-12.2
-10.7
-5.7
53.6
4.9
-2.5
55.9
2.2
Foreign liabilities
Credit granted
-4.0
-2.6
-4.8
28.7
22.9
--
37.7
64.2
11.0
--
--
--
44.7
47.0
43.8
-38.7
-34.3
--
-43.0
25.4
-6.5
--
--
--
-48.6
-49.5
-48.4
National currency
-38.0
-34.0
--
-42.9
26.4
-6.7
--
--
--
-48.5
-49.4
-48.4
Foreign currency
Deposits
-0.7
-0.3
--
-0.1
-79.9
0.2
--
--
--
-0.1
-0.1
-0.1
Earmarked funds
-1.5
-0.9
--
-0.3
-61.3
0.4
--
--
--
-0.1
-0.1
-0.1
Credit to the economy
71.4
92.4 108.8
98.3
6.4
4.4
120.6
22.7
15.5
99.1 102.9 103.6
National currency
48.7
65.2
76.9
76.5
17.3
8.4
94.0
22.9
12.2
76.7
78.5
78.6
Foreign currency
26.6
22.1
3.3
22.4
24.4
25.0
-16.5
-24.0
-22.2
-23.2
22.8
27.2
31.9
21.8
-19.8
-4.0
Other items (net)
-16.6
-26.6
-15.5
-21.8
-18.1
3.6
-45.5 108.7
Total assets
107.1 133.4 157.8 143.8
7.8
--
170.8
18.8
Broad money (M3)
107.1 133.4 157.8 143.8
24.5 31.6 36.2 34.3
7.8
7.8 170.8
18.8
8.5
2.0
41.2
20.1
4.8
31.0
34.1
34.8
Base money
143.1 155.9 157.9
--
18.8 143.1 155.9 157.9
Currency in circulation
13.1
17.4
24.6
17.5
0.5
--
21.9
25.3
--
15.3
17.5
17.6
Demand deposits
60.8
73.7
82.1
80.1
8.6
--
93.5
16.7
--
80.2
87.7
88.5
Quasi-money
33.2
42.3
51.1
46.2
9.3
--
55.4
19.9
--
47.7
50.7
51.8
107.1 133.4 157.8 143.8
7.8
--
170.8
18.8
--
Total liabilities
143.1 155.9 157.9
Sources: Banco de Moçambique, IMF and Banco de Portugal calculations.
Notes:
[1] Percentage change from the previous period; [2] Change in per cent of the initial stock of money supply (expansion/contraction
determinants).
Table A.II.4.10.
INTEREST RATES | Annual rates, per cent
2007
Dec.
Deposits 91-180 days
Credit
2008
Dec.
2009
Dec.
2010
Dec.
2011
Dec.
2012
Mar.
2012
Jun.
2012
Jul.
10.8
12.1
11.2
8.8
11.5
12.7
12.5
11.6
181-365 days
12.7
11.6
10.2
12.2
13.4
12.9
12.6
12.2
1-2 years
12.2
11.1
9.4
14.3
13.2
11.5
11.4
11.4
Up to 180 days
23.0
22.0
18.6
22.0
24.4
23.4
22.0
22.9
181-365 days
22.2
21.8
19.2
21.7
23.7
22.9
22.0
21.8
1-2 years
22.1
20.7
18.8
22.6
24.9
24.6
23.7
23.1
Reference rates
Standing liquidity provision facility
15.5
14.5
11.5
15.5
15.0
13.8
11.5
11.5
Treasury bills (91 days) (a)
14.8
14.0
9.5
14.7
11.8
8.6
4.2
3.8
Unsecured IMM (up to 7 days)
13.9
12.4
8.0
13.1
11.7
8.8
6.6
3.8
Sources: Banco de Moçambique, IMF and Banco de Portugal calculations.
Notes:
(a) As no transactions were carried out during March and June 2012, figures for these months are from the months immediately
preceding them (February and May).
II
95
Mozambique
2009 2010
Table A.II.4.11.
EXCHANGE RATES | Average rates
II
MZM/EUR
Official
(Of)
BANCO DE PORTUGAL | ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENTS IN PORTUGUESE-SPEAKING AFRICAN COUNTRIES AND TIMOR-LESTE 2011/2012
96
MZM/USD
Open Op/Of
(Op)
(%)
Official Parallel
(Of)
(Pa)
Open
(Op)
MZM/
Pa/Of Op/Of
(%)
(%)
EERI(a)
/ZAR Index, 100: 2000
Open Nom.
Real
2000
13,980
14,045
0.46
15,141
15,996
15,254
5.65
0.75
2,187 100.00
2001
18,294
18,515
1.21
20,455
21,145
20,706
3.37
1.23
2,537
82.03
87.03
2002
21,896
22,371
2.17
23,180
24,281
23,665
4.75
2.09
2,374
76.88
90.51
2003
26,360
26,874
1.95
23,341
24,249
23,782
3.89
1.89
3,188
60.26
76.18
2004
27,457
27,783
1.19
22,131
23,166
22,581
4.67
2.04
3,523
56.51
78.36
2005
28,337
28,576
0.84
22,936
23,614
23,068
2.96
0.58
3,617
54.19
78.38
2006(b)
32.18
31.38
-2.47
24.98
26.93
26.03
7.82
4.18
3.77
50.60
80.72
2007
35.57
35.02
-1.55
25.56
26.64
25.84
4.24
1.09
3.67
47.95
80.30
2008
35.72
35.49
-0.65
24.17
25.15
24.30
4.05
0.52
2.98
52.18
94.03
2009
38.95
37.25
-4.37
26.71
29.24
27.52
9.47
3.03
3.33
47.33
85.48
2010
45.44
43.63
-3.99
32.99
35.65
33.96
8.09
2.95
4.65
37.13
73.29
2011
40.28
40.46
0.45
29.06
31.04
29.07
6.81
0.03
4.04
42.58
89.81
January
43.03
43.51
1.12
32.48
35.42
32.65
9.06
0.51
4.73
38.48
81.88
February
42.82
43.00
0.42
31.51
33.83
31.63
7.36
0.37
4.41
39.64
84.79
March
43.45
43.42
-0.07
31.01
32.62
31.05
5.18
0.14
4.50
38.88
82.36
April
44.97
44.33
-1.42
30.71
32.27
30.73
5.09
0.06
4.57
37.65
79.38
May
42.52
43.09
1.34
30.11
31.65
30.10
5.11
-0.03
4.38
40.04
84.66
June
41.39
41.96
1.38
29.16
30.65
29.16
5.09
0.00
4.30
41.03
86.49
July
39.79
40.22
1.08
28.17
30.30
27.97
7.55
-0.72
4.12
42.49
89.38
August
39.18
39.29
0.28
27.38
30.26
27.22
10.53
-0.57
3.86
44.03
91.41
September
37.00
37.38
1.03
27.15
29.66
27.19
9.24
0.15
3.62
47.10
98.87
October
38.31
37.14
-3.05
27.05
29.51
27.11
9.08
0.21
3.42
46.48
96.94
November
35.92
36.53
1.70
26.95
28.26
26.94
4.86
-0.03
3.31
49.87
104.51
December
34.96
35.65
1.97
27.02
28.04
27.07
3.77
0.19
3.31
50.73
108.42
January
35.74
35.08
-1.85
27.18
29.50
27.26
8.54
0.29
3.41
48.67
104.40
February
35.99
35.94
-0.14
27.17
29.05
27.27
6.90
0.38
3.57
47.89
101.82
March
36.85
36.25
-1.63
27.46
28.73
27.64
4.62
0.64
3.64
46.66
98.32
April
36.53
36.51
-0.05
27.76
29.05
27.98
4.63
0.79
3.58
47.62
99.65
May
34.98
35.33
1.00
27.63
28.63
27.88
3.63
0.92
3.42
50.05
104.22
June
34.82
34.95
0.37
27.89
28.60
28.09
2.56
0.70
3.36
50.42
104.77
July
34.68
34.44
-0.69
28.03
28.97
28.21
3.35
0.66
3.42
49.82
103.06
August
35.91
35.98
0.18
28.53
29.47
28.80
3.29
0.96
3.49
48.37
99.84
100.00
2011
2012
Sources: Banco de Moçambique, IMF and Banco de Portugal calculations.
Notes: (a) Effective exchange rate index (EERI), calculated on the basis of official exchange rates applied to the currencies of Mozambique's
four main trading partners over the period 2005/09 (appreciation: +; depreciation: -); (b) A monetary reform was carried out in July 2006
with a conversion rate of 1 to 1000.
II.5.1. SUMMARY
The macroeconomic and structural fragilities of São Tomé and Príncipe are indubitably profound, as are
II
overcome, albeit in the long term. Despite the magnitude of these constraints, the Santomean economy
99
has made significant progress in a number of areas over the last few years. Several initiatives
undertaken by the Santomean authorities encompassed that progress, e.g. the National Poverty
Reduction Strategy for 2012-2016, the new IMF-supported adjustment programme (in force since July
2012, following two other programmes) and the ongoing Economic Cooperation Agreement with
Portugal (viewed by the Santomean authorities as a pillar of the fixed exchange rate regime between
the dobra and the euro adopted in 2010).
Table II.5.1.
MAIN ECONOMIC INDICATORS
2009
Est.
Real GDP (annual rate of change)
2010
Est.
2011
Prog.
2011
Est.
2012
Prog.
2013
Prog.
5.5
4.0
4.5
4.5
4.9
4.5
Inflation (year-on-year rate of change)
16.1
12.9
12.0
11.9
8.0
6.0
Money supply (annual rate of change)
8.2
25.1
10.5
6.1
15.2
Current and capital account (% of GDP)
Overall fiscal balance (% of GDP)
Domestic primary balance (% of GDP)
External debt (% of GDP)
3.9
-27.7
-25.1
-25.3
-17.8
-23.0
-18.0
-10.4
-27.7
-12.0
-6.8
-12.3
-8.1
-4.1
-4.0
-3.0
-3.2
-3.1
69.2
78.8
74.9
Sources: Banco Central de São Tomé e Príncipe, Ministry of Finance and International Cooperation (STP) and IMF.
Macroeconomic developments in 2011 and the first half of 2012 were broadly in line with this
momentum of progress, as can be seen from the major trends observed: an acceleration in the pace of
economic growth, a modest but broad-based reduction of external imbalances, a subdued expansion in
liquidity, the maintenance of foreign exchange reserves at relatively comfortable levels and, possibly the
most significant of all, further fiscal consolidation and a slowdown in inflation.
The importance of structural fragilities, however, asserts itself in many ways: among others, a marked
volatility in short term macroeconomic developments due to various exogenous factors. This was the
case in the second quarter of 2012, when inflation accelerated again, mainly reflecting problems with
domestic production and distribution of basic foodstuffs. This period was also characterised by a shift in
monetary conditions, with a faster expansion in domestic credit and liquidity, together with a
deterioration in foreign exchange reserves (although the latter was subsequently reversed, according to
preliminary data).
Prior to the negative impact from food market problems, inflation had dropped to 8.0% in April 2012,
i.e. a historical low in the current price index series (that began in 1993). Having remained stable over
one year, the slowdown in inflation coincided with an appreciation in the US dollar (as of the third
quarter of 2011), thus making it possible for the Santomean currency to stabilise, in real effective terms,
and so for price-competitiveness conditions to be maintained. In addition to inflation, public finances
saw the most positive developments in the recent juncture, with the domestic primary deficit dropping
to 3.0% of GDP in 2011 (approximately one percentage point lower than both budgeted for this year
and recorded in the previous one) – which confirms the consolidation trend broadly seen since 2008.
São Tomé and Príncipe
its socioeconomic weaknesses, viewed by the Santomean authorities as challenging hurdles to be
Table A.II.5.1.
MAIN ECONOMIC INDICATORS
Units
2008
2009
Est.
2010
Est.
2011
Prog.
Est.
2012
Prog.
Est.
2013
Prog.
II
billions of dobras
2,696
3,185
3,719
EUR millions
124.8
141.5
151.8
USD millions
4,006
4,376
5,063
5,801
298.8
178.6
183.6
196.5
200.2
217.0
246.5
264.8
annual % change
5.8
4.0
4.5
4.5
4.9
4.5
y-o-y % change
24.8
16.1
12.9
12.0
11.9
8.0
11.6 jul
6.0
avg. % change
32.0
17.0
13.3
12.4
14.3
9.0
11.4 jul
7.1
% of GDP
45.1
36.1
39.2
47.8
37.1
46.9
32.7
% of GDP
16.5
16.6
19.0
17.6
18.0
17.9
18.4
% of GDP
28.6
19.5
20.2
30.2
18.3
23.2
14.4
% of GDP
18.8
1.0
1.3
0.9
1.0
0.8
0.7
Oil bonuses
Total expenditure
of which: Current expenditure
% of GDP
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.8
5.8
0.0
% of GDP
30.4
54.1
49.7
75.6
49.0
53.6
45.0
% of GDP
20.3
20.2
20.6
19.3
19.4
18.7
18.6
Capital expenditure
Domestic primary balance (a)
Overall balance (commitment basis)
% of GDP
8.1
32.9
28.5
55.4
28.9
34.2
25.7
% of GDP
-6.4
-8.1
-4.1
-4.0
-3.0
-3.2
-3.1
% of GDP
14.7
-18.0
-10.4
-27.7
-12.0
-6.8
-12.3
Excl. debt relief + oil bonuses
Overall balance (cash basis)
% of GDP
-4.1
-19.0
-11.7
-28.6
-13.7
-13.4
-13.0
% of GDP
14.3
-18.1
-10.9
-27.7
-11.4
-6.8
-12.3
Real GDP
Inflation (Consumer Price Index)
PUBLIC FINANCES
Total revenue
Current revenue
Grants
of which: Debt relief
MONEY AND CREDIT
Net claims on central govern.
Credit to the economy
Broad money (M3)
BCSTP reference interest rate
BALANCE OF PAYMENTS
Exports f.o.b.
Imports f.o.b.
Trade balance
Services
Current account
Excluding official transfers
Current and capital account
BCSTP net foreign assets
EXTERNAL DEBT
Total external debt
External debt service
EXCHANGE RATES
Bil. rate STD/EUR (official market)
Bil. rate STD/USD (official market)
Nominal EERI (b) [appreciation: +]
Real EERI (b) [appreciation: +]
5.5
annual % change
-152.7
37.7
78.4
63.5
-860.5
117.2 jun
annual % change
22.8
39.1
40.0
14.7
5.6
8.7 jun
7.3
annual % change
36.9
8.2
25.1
10.5
6.1
15.0 jun
15.2
annual rate
28.0
16.0
15.0
15.0
annual % change
14.7
18.1
18.3
15.6
-2.8
8.5
annual % change
42.1
-9.2
23.4
1.7
10.5
2.2
-1.5
% of GDP
-46.0
-37.9
-46.2
-42.7
-42.1
-39.8
-35.1
29.7
14.0 jul
-13.0
% of GDP
-6.4
-4.4
-6.2
-10.5
-5.2
-7.6
-4.2
% of GDP
-28.3
-23.0
-27.7
-37.1
-27.4
-21.8
-23.0
% of GDP
-52.5
-42.9
-50.7
-50.6
-46.0
-46.0
-38.1
% of GDP
-9.4
3.9
-27.7
-25.1
-25.3
-17.8
EUR millions
55.9
50.9
40.7
36.4
43.7
33.5 jun
43.0
USD millions
78.8
73.1
53.7
46.5
57.6
41.3 jun
56.7
USD millions
110
136
158
184
% of GDP
59.9
69.2
78.8
74.9
% of exports
38.9
30.4
12.8
15.6
-23.0
average rate
21,602 22,510 24,500 24,500 24,500 24,500 24,500 ago 24,500
average rate
14,685 16,208 18,574
17,754
20,048 jul
annual % change
-13.2
-4.0
-6.1
1.5
-2.7 jul
annual % change
9.4
9.8
2.2
2.2
3.2 jul
Sources: Banco Central de São Tomé e Príncipe (BCSTP), Ministry of Finance and International Cooperation of São Tomé and Príncipe, IMF and
Banco de Portugal calculations.
Notes: (a) Overall balance (commitment basis), excluding grants, oil revenue (signature bonuses and other), debt interest and capital expenditure
financed by external sources; (b) Effective exchange rate index (EERI), calculated on the basis of official exchange rates applied to the
currencies of the four main trading partners over the period 2005/2009.
São Tomé and Príncipe
107
OUTPUT AND PRICES
Nominal GDP
Table A.II.5.2.
GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT | Current prices, billions of dobras
II
2008
Est.
2009
Est.
2010
Est.
2011
Prog.
Est.
2012
Prog.
2013
Prog.
3,719
4,006
4,376
5,063
5,801
451
460
515
625
687
2,401
2,588
2,582
3,023
2,970
BANCO DE PORTUGAL | ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENTS IN PORTUGUESE-SPEAKING AFRICAN COUNTRIES AND TIMOR-LESTE 2011/2012
108
Primary sector
483
568
Agriculture, livestock, hunting and forestry
314
371
Fishing
152
178
17
19
513
550
208
215
Mining and quarrying
Secondary sector
Manufacturing
Electricity, gas and water
Construction
Tertiary sector
Trade
Accommodation and food
69
69
236
266
1,616
2,074
613
804
38
47
Transportation, storage and communication
339
454
Financial activities
262
394
Real estate activ., rental and serv. to enterprises
109
135
Public admin., defence and social security
112
109
11
15
Education
Health and social work
8
9
124
107
-187
-281
270
273
GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT m.p.
2,696
3,185
Consumption
3,554
3,943
Private
3,170
3,496
383
447
582
589
716
750
-134
-161
4,136
4,532
262
318
Overall demand
4,397
4,850
Imports of goods and services
1,702
1,665
Other activities
FISIM(a)
Indirect taxes
Public
Investment
Gross fixed capital formation
Changes in inventories
Domestic demand
Exports of goods and services
Memo items:
GDPmp (real rate of change, %)
5.8
4.0
4.5
4.5
4.9
4.5
5.5
38.0
18.1
16.8
7.7
17.7
15.7
14.6
Nominal GDP (EUR millions; current prices)
124.8
141.5
151.8
Nominal GDP (USD millions; current prices)
183.6
196.5
200.2
264.8
298.8
GDPmp (nominal rate of change, %)
Sources: Banco Central de São Tomé e Príncipe, IMF and Banco de Portugal calculations.
Notes: (a) Financial intermediation services indirectly measured.
178.6
217.0
246.5
Table A.II.5.3.
CONSUMER PRICE INDEX | Per cent
Cumulative
change
[2]
Year-on-year
change
[3]
Average
change
[4]
9.6
9.6
12.2
9.4
9.4
9.2
9.0
9.0
10.1
10.0
10.0
9.8
15.2
15.2
13.3
17.2
17.2
17.2
24.6
24.6
23.1
27.6
27.6
18.5
24.8
24.8
32.0
16.1
16.1
17.0
12.9
12.9
13.3
11.9
11.9
14.3
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
December
December
December
December
December
December
December
December
December
December
December
December
2010
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
0.6
0.6
15.9
16.4
0.8
1.4
15.8
16.1
0.5
1.9
14.8
15.8
0.5
2.4
13.4
15.5
0.3
2.7
11.8
15.0
0.9
3.7
11.5
14.4
1.6
5.3
12.4
14.2
0.9
6.2
12.8
14.0
1.2
7.5
13.2
13.9
1.0
8.6
13.0
13.8
1.9
10.7
13.0
13.6
2.0
12.9
12.9
13.3
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
0.5
0.5
12.8
13.1
0.9
1.4
12.9
12.9
2.2
3.6
14.7
12.9
2.3
5.9
16.7
13.2
0.9
6.8
17.4
13.7
0.3
7.1
16.6
14.1
0.2
7.3
15.1
14.3
0.8
8.1
14.9
14.5
0.3
8.4
13.8
14.5
0.5
8.9
13.2
14.5
1.0
10.0
12.2
14.4
1.8
11.9
11.9
14.3
2011
December (prog.)
December (revised prog.)
2012
2013
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
6.0
7.7
12.0
12.4
0.4
0.4
11.8
14.2
0.6
1.0
11.5
14.1
0.3
1.3
9.5
13.6
0.9
2.2
8.0
12.9
1.4
3.6
8.6
12.1
2.4
6.1
10.9
11.7
0.9
7.0
11.6
11.4
December (prog.)
8.0
9.0
December (prog.)
6.0
7.1
Sources: Banco Central de São Tomé e Príncipe, IMF and Banco de Portugal calculations.
Notes: [1] month (n) / month (n-1); [2] month (n) / previous December; [3] month (n) / month (n) of the previous year; [4]
last 12 months / previous 12 months.
II
109
São Tomé and Príncipe
Monthly
change
[1]
Table A.II.5.4.
BALANCE OF PAYMENTS | USD millions
II
BANCO DE PORTUGAL | ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENTS IN PORTUGUESE-SPEAKING AFRICAN COUNTRIES AND TIMOR-LESTE 2011/2012
110
2008
1. CURRENT ACCOUNT
1.1. Trade balance
Exports (f.o.b.)
of which: Cocoa
Re-exports
Imports (f.o.b.)
of which: Food
Capital goods
Fuel
1.2. Services
Exports
of which: Travel and tourism
Imports
of which: Freights and insurance
1.3. Income
Credit
Debit
of which: Scheduled debt interest
1.4. Current transfers
Private transfers
Official transfers
of which: Project grants
2. CAPITAL AND FINANCIAL ACCOUNT
2.1. Capital account
Capital transfers
of which: Oil signature bonuses
Debt relief
2.2. Financial account
General government - Loans
of which: Disbursements
Amortisation
Other assets (net)
of which: Foreign direct investment
Short-term capital, errors and omissions
3. OVERALL BALANCE: (1) + (2)
4. FINANCING
Chg. in foreign reserves, excl. NOA(a) (increase: - )
National Oil Account (increase: - )
Use of IMF resources (net)
5. FINANCING GAP(b): (4) + (5)
Memo items:
Current account (% of GDP)
Current and capital account (% of GDP)
2009
2010
2012
2013
Est.
Prog.
Est.
Prog.
Prog.
-67.6
-57.6
-68.8
2011
-52.0
-45.1
-55.5
-80.5
-84.4
-74.6
-92.5
-92.6 -103.7 -105.3 -105.0
7.8
9.2
10.9
12.6
10.6
11.5
10.0
5.0
5.5
4.3
7.7
5.3
4.6
4.5
2.2
3.0
5.2
4.0
5.1
6.4
5.0
-92.2
-83.8 -103.4 -105.2 -114.3 -116.8 -115.0
-24.2
-29.0
-23.9
-35.3
-30.0
-38.0
-22.1
-14.7
-18.4
-11.7
-8.6
9.7
10.4
7.7
-33.5
-33.6
-32.6
-40.2
-44.1
-32.8
-40.9
-19.8
-25.2
-25.8
-25.2
-12.5
-22.7
-12.7
-20.1
-12.6
13.4
12.3
18.4
21.2
25.4
8.3
11.1
9.5
15.1
17.7
21.8
-21.4
-19.0
-25.9
-35.0
-31.1
-41.3
-38.0
-17.3
-15.8
-20.7
-0.1
-0.3
0.7
0.8
0.9
1.9
1.6
2.9
1.9
-2.0
-1.9
-2.3
-1.7
-1.5
-1.4
-1.6
44.2
38.3
48.9
32.5
48.7
67.0
47.9
-0.2
-0.9
2.8
3.1
2.9
2.9
3.0
44.4
39.2
46.1
29.4
45.8
64.1
44.9
25.3
26.1
37.1
24.0
36.9
50.3
32.9
67.1
55.3
47.0
99.1
63.1
65.3
68.3
34.8
52.8
0.0
26.0
5.1
10.4
0.0
34.8
52.8
0.0
26.0
5.1
10.4
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
26.0
1.9
10.4
0.0
34.8
52.8
0.0
0.0
32.3
2.5
47.0
73.1
-35.4
-28.8
16.8
4.7
28.6
18.2
-40.1
-57.4
-1.5
58.4
27.2
56.7
7.5
9.3
15.1
-22.9
2.3
0.2
-1.1
0.0
0.0
58.0
54.9
68.3
7.9
25.3
15.7
4.6
13.8
28.7
18.7
7.9
-3.5
-3.4
-2.6
-2.7
66.2
32.1
55.2
11.2
23.9
50.7
25.0
36.4
12.1
25.0
4.2
-36.0
33.1
-22.5
28.0
39.8
10.2
-8.5
18.6
-4.5
7.5
-0.6
-15.1
-10.2
8.5
-18.6
4.5
-7.5
0.6
-18.5
-13.1
6.0
4.2
4.9
1.2
-3.3
3.4
2.7
2.4
1.9
-24.5
-0.5
-9.3
0.7
0.5
0.6
1.7
0.0
0.6
0.5
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
-28.3
-23.0
-27.7
-37.1
-27.4
-21.8
-23.0
-9.4
3.9
-27.7
-25.1
-25.3
-17.8
-23.0
Sources: Banco Central de São Tomé e Príncipe, IMF and Banco de Portugal calculations.
Notes: (a) National Oil Account: NOA; (b) Net borrowing (-) / net lending (+).
Table A.II.5.5.
MERCHANDISE EXPORTS | Destinations, as a percentage of total
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2002
Q1
to 2011
II
2.1
1.7
Belgium
13.1
Netherlands
60.0
Portugal
Other
Total exports
1.8
4.1
1.1
1.8
0.9
1.1
2.2
2.1
0.5
1.8
15.1
9.5
11.0
14.2
40.7
51.7
39.1
26.9
16.8
7.9
18.9
20.2
29.5
15.3
16.3
13.3
28.2
26.8
10.9
37.4
29.5
19.6
33.5
25.5
38.0
33.1
33.1
44.9
49.2
32.3
44.4
13.2
6.4
33.2
5.2
9.0
11.5
7.7
24.6
23.2
13.8
20.8
22.3
17.9
48.3
15.6
100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0
100.0
Sources: Banco Central de São Tomé e Príncipe, IMF and Banco de Portugal calculations.
Table A.II.5.6.
MERCHANDISE IMPORTS | Origins, as a percentage of total
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2002
Q1
to 2011
15.6
Angola
11.2
10.3
16.0
20.3
18.3
20.1
22.9
14.8
12.1
9.6
15.8
Belgium
14.8
11.9
8.8
6.1
4.6
2.3
1.7
1.9
1.8
1.7
2.6
3.8
China
0.0
0.7
0.1
0.2
0.3
1.7
0.9
1.4
2.4
2.0
0.8
1.3
France
0.8
3.1
0.5
0.3
1.1
0.3
0.2
0.7
5.0
2.4
0.8
1.6
Gabon
3.0
3.1
1.4
0.6
3.5
2.2
3.0
2.7
5.3
2.0
1.8
2.9
Japan
7.0
3.4
6.0
7.4
0.7
0.2
0.8
4.4
1.2
2.5
4.6
2.6
Netherlands
5.7
0.5
1.0
0.3
0.8
1.4
0.1
0.4
0.5
0.3
0.5
0.7
54.6
62.3
60.4
57.1
63.6
66.2
61.3
56.4
60.9
58.9
51.8
60.3
2.9
4.7
5.8
7.7
7.1
5.6
9.2
17.4
10.8
20.6
21.2
11.1
100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0
100.0
Portugal
Other
Total imports
Sources: Banco Central de São Tomé e Príncipe, IMF and Banco de Portugal calculations.
São Tomé and Príncipe
111
Angola
Table A.II.5.7.
EXTERNAL DEBT | USD millions
II
BANCO DE PORTUGAL | ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENTS IN PORTUGUESE-SPEAKING AFRICAN COUNTRIES AND TIMOR-LESTE 2011/2012
112
2008
2009
2010
2011
Est.
106.6
122.6
139.4
156.1
66.0
65.7
69.1
67.7
30.6
37.0
38.6
42.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
2.9
4.2
5.1
5.8
2.2
2.2
3.2
2.1
2.4
2.1
1.4
0.9
3.9
5.7
6.5
7.9
3.7
4.4
5.0
4.9
9.7
13.7
13.4
14.9
5.7
4.7
4.0
5.5
1.2 Bilateral official debt
49.4
59.8
75.0
88.3
of which: Arrears
39.4
39.9
43.3
41.9
0.0
0.2
0.9
0.9
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.2
0.9
0.9
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
49.4
59.6
74.1
87.4
39.4
39.9
43.3
41.9
22.0
32.0
32.0
32.0
1.3
1.3
3.1
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
17.3
17.0
17.0
17.4
8.8
8.8
8.8
8.8
0.0
0.4
13.1
29.2
26.6
25.8
25.8
25.8
26.6
25.8
25.8
25.8
Italy(a)
26.6
25.8
25.8
25.8
2. Short-term debt
3.4
13.4
18.4
28.4
3.4
3.4
13.4
18.4
3.4
3.4
3.4
3.4
0.0
0.0
5.0
5.0
0.0
10.0
10.0
20.0
TOTAL EXTERNAL DEBT [1 + 2]
110.0
136.0
157.8
184.5
of which: Arrears
69.3
69.1
82.5
86.1
Memo items:
Scheduled external debt service
(% of exports of goods and services)
Total external debt (% of GDP)
Total arrears (% of GDP)
38.9
30.4
12.8
15.6
59.9
69.2
78.8
74.9
37.8
35.2
41.2
34.9
1. Medium and long-term debt
of which: Arrears
1.1 Multilateral debt
of which: Arrears
BADEA
AfDB/ADF
EIB
IFAD
IMF
IDA
OPEC
1.2.1 Paris Club members
of which: Arrears
Germany
Belgium
Spain
France
Russia
1.2.2 Other official creditors
of which: Arrears
Angola
Algeria
Cape Verde
China
Former Yugoslavia
Portugal
1.3 Commercial debt
of which: Arrears
of which: Arrears
Angola
Brazil
Nigeria
Sources: Banco Central de São Tomé e Príncipe, Ministry of Finance and International Cooperation of São Tomé and
Príncipe, IMF and Banco de Portugal calculations.
Notes: (a) Debt in dispute, awaiting a decision by the international court.
Table A.II.5.8.
GOVERNMENT OPERATIONS | Billions of dobras
1. Total revenue
1.1. Current revenue
Tax revenue
Direct taxes
Indirect taxes
of which: Customs revenue
Other tax revenue
Non-tax revenue
1.2. Grants
Project grants
Other grants
Debt relief-related grants
1.3. Oil signature bonuses
1,216 1,149 1,459 1,915 1,622 84.7
444
528
707
706
787 111.6
411
472
647
638
726 113.8
113
150
181
180
235 130.5
262
247
374
358
355 99.2
215
168
312
237
299 126.2
36
75
91
100
136 136.0
33
56
60
68
61 90.7
2,372
904
828
241
448
369
139
76
800 66.1
674 63.0
83 78.8
43 122.4
1,174
962
169
43
771
165
99
507
621
576
13
31
0
0
752 1,210
699 1,069
5
105
48
35
0
0
35
833
640
151
42
0.0
0
0
70.9
2,716
947
418
228
237
32
32
219 1,048 1,060 2,219 1,266
34
126
87
90
65
185
922
972 2,129 1,201
57.0
72.2
56.4
1,734
96
1,638
1,489
155
1,334
82.5
35
41
53
33
3. OVERALL BALANCE (commitment basis) [1] - [2]
395
-575
21
0
21
0
0
0
548
219
164
103
23
39
642
252
195
144
16
35
766
338
191
193
16
28
21
772
338
175
202
32
25
2,611
458
181
147
105
4
20
48.3 1,081
43.4
479
64.8
255
44.3
272
12.7
33
62.6
42
35
29
-389 -1,112
-523
-343
-713
65
0
65
0
0
0
0
0
0
4. Change in arrears [decrease: -]
External arrears (interest)
Domestic arrears
5. Items in transit, errors and omissions
-31
-2
6. OVERALL BALANCE (cash basis) [3] + [4] + [5]
385
-577
-385
79
-233
44
312
312
577
271
271
39
0
0
-464
20
29
-520
0
7
306
346
9
-49
0
0
0
0
0
Memo items:
Overall balance, commitment basis (% of GDP)
excluding debt relief (% of GDP)
excl. debt relief and oil bonuses (% of GDP)
14.7
-4.1
-4.1
-18.0
-19.0
-19.0
Domestic primary balance (b)
(% of GDP)
-174
-6.4
-257
-8.1
8. Financing gap [6] + [7]
294
372
330
108
172
145
50
42
1,898
41.2 1,065
39.9
990
44.7
38.4
39.2
36.3
55.3
75
110.1
109.3
133.7
89.4
74.5
169.2
820 1,724 1,847 3,027 2,146
7.2. External financing
Disbursements (projects)
Other disbursements
Scheduled amortisation (incl. relief)
Change in arrears (principal)
Bilateral rescheduling
2013
851
369
234
181
24
43
2. Total expenditure
2.1. Current expenditure
Compensation of employees
Goods and services
Subsidies and transfers
Public debt interest
Other current expenditure
2.2. Capital expenditure
With domestic financing
With external financing
2.3. HIPC initiative-related social expend.
7. Financing
7.1. Domestic financing
Bank credit (net)
of which: National Oil Account
Non-bank financing
of which: Privatisation revenue
2012
l.e. (a) Budg. 1st half l.e. (a) Prog.
0
0
0
0
0
0
-18
0
-41
0
0
-406 -1,112
-499
-343
-713
406 1,112
150
156
133
36
33
17
17
499
38
38
-13
0
0
343
-286
713
68
-263
68
256
955
293 1,036
11
0
-48
-80
0
0
0
0
461
528
1
-68
0
0
629
676
0
-47
0
0
645
694
0
-49
0
0
0
0
0
0
-10.4
-11.7
-11.7
-27.7
-28.6
-28.6
-12.0
-12.9
-13.7
-6.8
-7.6
-13.4
-12.3
-13.0
-13.0
-152
-4.1
-160
-4.0
-133
-3.0
-164
-3.2
-179
-3.1
Sources: Banco Central de São Tomé e Príncipe, Ministry of Finance and International Cooperation of São Tomé and Príncipe, IMF and
Banco de Portugal calculations.
Notes: (a) Level of budget execution, per cent; (b) Overall balance (commitment basis), excluding grants, oil revenue (signature bonuses
and other), debt interest and capital expenditure financed by external sources.
II
113
São Tomé and Príncipe
2008 2009 2010
2011
Est. Est. Budg. Est.
Table A.II.5.9.
MONETARY SURVEY | End-of-period stocks, billions of Dobras
II
2008 2009 2010 2011
2011/2010
(A)
(B)
BANCO DE PORTUGAL | ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENTS IN PORTUGUESE-SPEAKING AFRICAN COUNTRIES AND TIMOR-LESTE 2011/2012
114
1. NET FOREIGN ASSETS
1.1. Central bank
1,418 1,279 1,364 1,263
1,199 1,228
891 -10.7
372
1.2. Commercial banks
219
50
367
2. NET DOMESTIC ASSETS
-371
-145
53
2.1. Net domestic credit
334
2.1.1. Net credit to central gov.
2.1.1.1. Gross loans
2.1.1.2. Deposits
2.1.2. Credit to the economy
2.2. Other assets and liabilities
3. BROAD MONEY (M3)
-7.4
998
-7.2 1,439 1,338
-7.5 1,025
1.4
303 470.3
810 1,466 1,728
17.9
2012 2012
Mar Jun
Est. Est.
Jun 2012 / 2012 2013
Dec 2011
(A)
(B) Prog. Prog.
5.9
4.8 1,365 1,329
820
-7.9
-4.5 1,070 1,054
0.4
415
517
39.1
9.3
295
275
17.7
115
414
36.5
7.1
296
584
18.5 1,660 1,819
5.3
-450
-280
-60
-22
63.5
2.7
-78
11 150.7
2.1
-212
-149
127
158
261
267
2.6
0.5
259
343
28.1
4.8
267
268
-577
-438
-321
-290
-9.8
2.2
-337
-331
14.5
-2.7
-479
-417
784 1,090 1,526 1,750
14.7
15.8 1,738 1,808
3.3
3.7 1,847 1,982
-955 -1,412 -1,424
-0.8
-0.8 -1,545 -1,405
1.3
1.2 -1,339 -1,249
1 047 1,133 1,417 1,566
10.5
10.5 1,554 1,752
11.8
11.8 1,661 1,913
-704
3.1. Currency in circulation
120
149
163
177
8.5
141
3.2. Demand deposits
717
718
922
955
3.5
970 1,056
10.6
3.2.1. In national currency
309
288
399
493
23.6
475
555
12.7
3.2.2. In foreign currency
409
431
524
462 -11.7
495
501
8.3
434
3.3. Other deposits
5.8 1,635 1,833
210
266
331
3.3.1. In national currency
105
116
23
3.3.2. In foreign currency
105
150
308
153 -13.5
30.9
444
542
25.0
53 129.3
74
101
92.5
23.5
369
441
15.7
381
196
225
523
603
36
41
Sources: Banco Central de São Tomé e Príncipe, IMF and Banco de Portugal calculations.
Notes: (A) Percent changes from the end of the previous year; (B) Changes in percent of the initial stock of broad money
(expansion/contraction determinants).
Table A.II.5.10.
INTEREST RATES | Annual rates, per cent
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2011
2012
Dec
Dec
Dec
Dec
Dec
Jun
Dec
Jul
28.0
28.0
28.0
16.0
15.0
15.0
15.0
14.0
2.1. Credit (91-180 days)
31.0
34.3
31.2
31.2
26.8
26.0
26.0
26.0
2.2. Credit (181 days-1 year)
32.0
32.1
28.7
28.7
27.0
26.0
26.0
26.0
2.3. Credit (over 1 year)
32.5
30.8
28.0
28.0
26.7
26.5
26.5
26.5
3.1. Deposits (up to 90 days)
12.0
12.3
10.2
10.2
11.6
12.2
12.2
12.2
3.2. Deposits (91 days-1 year)
14.5
13.2
11.3
11.3
13.2
13.7
13.7
13.7
3.3. Deposits (over 1 year)
16.0 Negotiable Negotiable Negotiable
13.9
12.8
12.8
12.8
24.6
12.9
16.6
11.9
11.6
1. BCSTP reference rate
2. Lending rates
3. Deposit rates
Memo item:
Inflation ( year-on-year rate of change )
27.6
24.8
16.1
Sources: Banco Central de São Tomé e Príncipe.
Note:
Indicative rates (calculated on the basis of raw information provided by the banks).
Table A.II.5.11.
EXCHANGE RATES | Average rates
Exchange
rate
Annual
change
Exchange
rate
Annual
change
Nominal
Real
115
2000
7 367
-3.7
7 978
12.0
197.8
140.1
2001
7 901
7.2
8 842
10.8
218.6
133.4
2002
8 586
8.7
9 088
2.8
236.9
131.7
2003
10,568
23.1
9 348
2.9
225.1
115.4
2004
12,306
16.4
9 902
5.9
202.4
106.7
2005
13,123
6.6
10,519
6.2
191.9
111.4
2006
15,630
19.1
12,445
18.3
158.4
107.5
2007
18,558
18.7
13,537
8.8
134.6
103.7
2008
21,602
16.4
14,685
8.5
116.9
113.3
2009
22,510
4.2
16,208
10.4
112.2
124.4
2010
24,500
8.8
18,574
14.6
105.4
127.2
2011
24,500
0.0
17,754
-4.4
107.0
139.7
24,500
12.2
17,277
4.9
106.6
126.4
February
24,500
11.7
18,037
5.2
105.8
125.9
March
24,500
11.7
18,194
7.9
105.7
125.0
April
24,500
11.6
18,394
10.6
106.1
125.5
May
24,500
11.6
19,582
21.4
104.9
124.0
June
24,500
11.5
20,206
28.9
103.6
123.2
July
24,500
11.4
19,376
24.1
104.3
125.7
August
24,500
10.5
19,125
23.0
105.0
127.4
September
24,500
6.1
18,209
14.7
104.4
127.3
October
24,500
4.0
17,777
11.7
106.4
130.3
November
24,500
2.7
18,019
11.4
106.4
132.3
December
24,500
2.7
18,692
13.6
105.3
132.9
2010 January
24,500
0.0
18,511
7.1
105.7
133.2
February
24,500
0.0
18,102
0.4
106.4
134.9
March
24,500
0.0
17,656
-3.0
106.8
136.6
April
24,500
0.0
17,125
-6.9
107.5
139.8
May
24,500
0.0
17,183
-12.3
107.8
141.1
June
24,500
0.0
17,161
-15.1
107.7
141.2
July
24,500
0.0
17,277
-10.8
107.6
141.3
August
24,500
0.0
17,220
-10.0
107.5
142.4
September
24,500
0.0
17,883
-1.8
107.1
141.2
October
24,500
0.0
18,039
1.5
106.7
140.0
November
24,500
0.0
18,177
0.9
106.9
141.4
December
24,500
0.0
18,716
0.1
106.2
142.5
2011 January
24,500
0.0
19,153
3.5
105.5
141.5
February
24,500
0.0
18,682
3.2
106.1
142.6
March
24,500
0.0
18,694
5.9
106.2
141.8
April
24,500
0.0
18,758
9.5
106.1
142.4
May
24,500
0.0
19,251
12.0
105.6
143.9
June
24,500
0.0
19,705
14.8
104.8
146.2
July
24,500
0.0
20,048
16.0
104.7
145.9
2012 January
Sources:
Notes:
II
EERI (a)(b)
USD / Dobra
São Tomé and Príncipe
Euro / Dobra
Banco Central de São Tomé e Príncipe and Banco de Portugal calculations.
(a) Effective exchange rate index (EERI), calculated on the basis of official rates applied to the currencies of the four
main trading partners over the period 2005/2009; (b) An increase/decrease in the EERI (nominal or real) corresponds
to an appreciation/depreciation of the dobra. (Index, 100: January 1999).
II.6.1. SUMMARY
oil output (with an estimated real rate of change above 10%) and oil revenue (around USD 3.2 billion, a
II
40% increase compared with the previous year). Government expenditure also increased significantly
119
(specifically public investment), which helped accelerate price growth. This resulted in a high rate of
Timor-Leste
Developments in the Timorese economy during 2011 were driven by positive developments in the non-
inflation (17.4% year-on-year at the end of the year), which nevertheless did not continue in 2012, as
the inflation that had accumulated from January to August this year stood at 3.3%.
In 2012 the non-oil output is expected to grow similarly to previous years (close to 10%).
Table II.6.1.
MAIN ECONOMIC INDICATORS
2009
2010
2011
Est.
2012
Prog.
Non-oil real GDP (annual rate of change)
12.8
9.5
10.6
10.0
Inflation (average annual rate of inflation)
0.7
6.8
13.5
8.0
Broad Money (annual rate of change)
40.3
9.9
9.3
Current account (% of non-oil GDP)
166.8
193.9
226.2
Fiscal balance (% of non-oil GDP) (a)
169.4
183.9
216.0
44.1
Oil revenue (% of non-oil GDP)
233.7
265.1
309.4
225.4
Petroleum Fund (% of non-oil GDP)
682.2
788.9
883.3
742.8
0.0
0.0
0.0
3.4
Public debt (% of non-oil GDP)
141.6
Sources: Banco Central de Timor-Leste, Ministry of Finance and IMF.
Notes: (a) Fiscal balance on a cash basis.
Energy commodity prices have remained at high levels, resulting in continued growth in the value of the
Timorese Petroleum Fund, where all State revenue from the offshore exploration of oil and gas is
channelled. The value of this Fund’s assets amounted to USD 9.3 billion at the end of 2011 and USD
10.6 billion in June of last year, although the Timorese authorities are making greater use of these
resources compared with previous years. In 2011 USD 1.05 billion was transferred from the Petroleum
Fund to the Treasury, corresponding almost exactly to the value of the Timorese non-oil GDP of that
year.
The Fund’s management continues to focus on preserving this wealth to benefit future generations,
although the Timorese political authorities (Government and Parliament) believe that a more assertive
investment policy – in infrastructure and human capital – will have markedly positive results both in the
short and the long term, given the country’s clear shortages in these areas.
At an institutional level, the Banking and Payments Authority (created in November 2001, before the
restoration of independence) was transformed into Banco Central de Timor-Leste (created in September
2011). In addition, the preparation and publication of the National Accounts for 2004 – 2010 (in April
of this year) by the Direção Nacional de Estatística (National Statistics Directorate) was a significant step
forward (an update of the National Accounts with the 2011 figures will be available shortly). These
estimates were prepared in accordance with international standards, treating output and income
estimates appropriately and consistently. For the first time, the oil sector is treated in a systematic
manner in the National Accounts.
Coffee exports (Timor-Leste’s predominant export, in the absence of a specific value for energy exports)
dropped from the previous year (from USD 17 million to USD 12 million) and, for the first time,
Germany surpassed the United States as the main destination market for Timorese coffee. The decrease
II
in the value of Timorese coffee production and exports in 2011 (see Chart II.6.4.) is mostly the result of
price for coffee increased markedly in 2011 compared with 2010.
The high current account surplus has given rise to new financial investments abroad by the Petroleum
Fund (practically the same amount: USD 2.4 billion). This sovereign fund (whose adequate management
and transparency rules are generally recognised, specifically within the Extractive Industries
Transparency Initiative) amounted to around USD 9.3 billion at the end of 2011, and has continued to
grow, totalling approximately USD 10.6 billion at the end of the first half of the year.
The size of the Petroleum Fund has continued to grow owing to high international energy prices (well
above the values foreseen in the budget document), despite the Government (with the required
approval of the other State authorities) having increased recourse to transfers from the Fund in order to
finance government expenditure (in particular in 2011).
II.6.4. PUBLIC FINANCES
Income from the offshore exploration of oil and natural gas has a key role in public finances,
ensuring a comfortable budget position. In fact, this income represents around thirty times the
amount of domestic revenue (USD 3.3 billion in oil revenue and USD 108 million in domestic revenue in
2011) (see Chart II.6.6.).
Table II.6.3.
BUDGET EXECUTION | As a % of non-oil GDP
Total revenue
Domestic revenue
Oil revenue
Total expenditure
2009
2010
2011
Est.
2012
Prog.
242.4
275.1
319.7
7.5
9.6
10.3
10.9
234.1
265.5
309.4
166.9
177.8
72.7
90.8
103.7
133.7
Current expenditure
46.2
60.3
47.5
57.2
Capital expenditure
26.5
30.6
56.1
76.5
169.7
184.3
216.0
44.1
Overall balance (cash basis)
Sources: Banco Central de Timor-Leste, Ministry of Finance and IMF.
The value of this oil revenue is channelled to the Petroleum Fund, from which transfers to cover the
State’s expenditure are carried out in observance with the requirements set out in the law establishing
the use of these resources (focusing on intergenerational equity).
For 2011 these transfers were initially budgeted to an amount of USD 734 million, but the Treasury
withdrew a total of USD 1.1 billion from the Petroleum Fund.
The increased use of these resources resulted from significant budgetary revisions on the expenditure
side, specifically public investment. This component had initially been allocated an amount of USD 355
million (in the 2011 general state budget, approved in 2010), but totalled USD 592 million. By contrast,
123
Timor-Leste
a poor agricultural year in 2011 (owing to adverse weather conditions), given that the international
As for the exchange situation, the Australian dollar remained historically high against the US dollar in
2011 and 2012 (so far), while the Indonesian rupiah has been depreciating against the US dollar since
II
BANCO DE PORTUGAL | ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENTS IN PORTUGUESE-SPEAKING AFRICAN COUNTRIES AND TIMOR-LESTE 2011/2012
126
mid-2011.
The joint evolution of these two currencies, traditionally more relevant to Timor-Leste’s external trade
flows, has been driving an appreciation in its nominal effective exchange rate. This appreciation is
naturally even more pronounced in real terms owing to the country’s higher inflation compared with its
trade partners (see Chart II.6.9.).
Table A.II.6.1.
MAIN ECONOMIC INDICATORS
Units
2008
2009
2010
2011
Prog. Est.
II
2012
Prog.
Est.
Gross domestic income (a)
USD millions
3,289
2,598
3,167
3,250
3,522
3,861
Non-oil GDP
USD millions
665
788
875
939
1,054
1,252
real rate of change
14.6
12.8
9.5
10.6
10.6
10.0
y-o-y % change
7.5
1.8
9.2
13.1
17.4
8.0
11.3 Aug
avg. % change
9.0
0.7
6.8
13.1
13.5
8.0
13.0 Aug
% of non-oil GDP
369
242
275
356
320
178
% of non-oil GDP
6.6
7.5
9.6
13.4
10.3
10.9
Inflation (CPI)
PUBLIC FINANCES
Total revenue
Domestic revenue
Oil revenue (oil and gas)
% of non-oil GDP
361
234
265
343
309
225
% of non-oil GDP
80
73
91
132
104
134
Current expenditure
% of non-oil GDP
54
46
60
70
48
57
Capital expenditure
% of non-oil GDP
26
27
31
88
56
77
Fiscal balance (cash basis)
% of non-oil GDP
289
169
184
198
216
44
Public debt
% of non-oil GDP
0
0
0
0
0
3
Total expenditure (cash basis)
Petroleum Fund
USD millions
4,197
5,377
6,904
8,271
9,310
% of non-oil GDP
631
682
789
881
883
% of non-oil GDP
59
56
71
65
11
9,300 10,601 Jun
743
847
Jun
MONEY AND CREDIT
Net foreign assets (b)
annual % change
24
13
40
months of imports
6
6
7
7
Net domestic assets
% of non-oil GDP
-30
-22
-37
-35
annual % change
16
-14
87
12
Broad Money (c)
% of non-oil GDP
29
34
34
31
annual % change
33
40
10
9
Current account
% of non-oil GDP
305
167
194
253
226
142
Trade account
% of non-oil GDP
-43
-46
-64
-71
-33
-63
% of non-oil GDP
2.1
1.2
2.1
2.3
3.2
2.6
tx. variação anual
112
-34
95
22
55
-3
Merchandise imports
% of non-oil GDP
45
47
66
73
36
66
tx. variação anual
70
24
55
20
-45
119
Current and capital balance
% of non-oil GDP
308
170
201
257
229
144
Overall balance
% of non-oil GDP
-3.0
5.0
10.1
-0.3
5.3
12.8
BALANCE OF PAYMENTS
Merchandise exports (d)
Sources: Banco Central de Timor-Leste, Ministry of Finance, IMF and Banco de Portugal calculations.
Notes: (a) Includes income from the off-shore exploration of oil and gas; (b) Does not include Petroleum Fund assets;
(c) Currency in circulation only includes coins (centavos, sub denominations of the USD) issued by the ABPTL/ Banco Central de
Timor-Leste, excluding USD banknotes in circulation, owing to the absence of reliable indicators on cash inflows and outflows (within
the context of the official dollarisation); (d) Oil revenue is accounted for in the income account, and therefore is not included in
merchandise exports due to lack of broken-down data.
Timor-Leste
127
OUTPUT AND PRICES
Table A.II.6.2.
GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT | Current prices, USD millions
II
2007
2008
2009
2010
Agriculture, fishing and forestry
145
165
181
188
Industry, trade and services
295
396
445
504
84
115
162
188
Non-oil GDP (at factor costs)
524
676
788
879
Non-oil GDP (market prices)
525
665
788
875
939
1,054
1,252
Total GDP (incl. oil production)
2,875
4,415
3,283
4,131
4,612
4,315
4,073
Consumption
2011
Proj.
Est.
2012
Prog.
BANCO DE PORTUGAL | ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENTS IN PORTUGUESE-SPEAKING AFRICAN COUNTRIES AND TIMOR-LESTE 2011/2012
128
Public administration
1,032
1,324
1,444
1,574
Private consumption
466
533
584
609
Government consumption
566
791
861
965
Gross investment
112
210
490
581
GFCF
110
209
488
579
Changes in inventories
1.3
1.6
1.8
2.0
Domestic demand
1,144
1,535
1,934
2,154
Exports of goods and services
2,876
4,276
3,094
3,940
Overall demand
4,019
5,811
5,028
6,095
Imports of goods and services
1,155
1,426
1,743
1,964
Gross domestic income
1,956
3,289
2,598
3,167
3,250
3,522
3,861
Oil income, incl. interest from investments
1,313
2,400
1,845
2,323
3,261
3,258
2,821
Non-oil GDP (real change, %)
11.6
14.6
12.8
9.5
10.6
10.6
10.0
Gross domestic income (nominal change, %)
50.9
68.2
-21.0
21.9
2.6
11.2
9.6
Memo item:
Sources: Banco Central de Timor-Leste, Ministry of Finance and IMF.
Table A.II.6.3.
CONSUMER PRICE INDEX | Per cent
Cumulative
change
[2]
Year-on-year
change
[3]
Average
change
[4]
9.5
9.5
4.2
4.2
7.2
1.8
1.8
3.2
0.9
0.9
1.1
7.3
7.3
3.9
8.6
8.6
10.3
7.5
7.5
9.0
1.8
1.8
0.7
9.2
9.2
6.8
17.4
17.4
13.5
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
December
December
December
December
December
December
December
December
December
December
2010
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
1.9
1.9
3.6
0.5
1.1
3.0
4.7
0.5
0.5
3.5
5.5
0.6
0.3
3.8
6.0
0.9
0.3
4.1
6.4
1.4
0.2
4.3
6.6
2.1
0.6
5.0
7.3
2.9
0.3
5.3
7.6
3.8
0.3
5.6
7.4
4.6
0.4
6.0
7.8
5.4
0.8
6.9
9.0
6.1
2.1
9.2
9.2
6.8
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
1.1
1.1
8.3
7.2
3.7
4.8
11.1
7.7
2011
3.1
8.1
14.1
8.4
-0.1
8.0
13.7
9.1
0.1
8.2
13.5
9.7
0.4
8.6
13.7
10.3
0.2
8.8
13.2
10.8
0.2
9.0
13.0
11.2
1.0
10.1
13.8
11.7
0.9
11.1
14.4
12.3
1.8
13.1
15.5
12.8
3.7
17.4
17.4
13.5
13.1
13.1
1.4
1.4
17.7
14.3
-0.7
0.6
12.6
14.4
0.7
1.4
10.1
14.0
0.8
2.2
11.0
13.8
0.3
2.5
11.2
13.6
0.2
2.7
11.0
13.3
0.3
2.9
11.1
13.1
0.4
3.3
11.3
13.0
8.0
8.0
December (prog.)
2012
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
December (prog.)
Sources: Banco Central de Timor-Leste, Ministry of Finance and Banco de Portugal calculations.
Notes:
[1] month (n) / month (n-1); [2] month (n) / previous December; [3] month (n) / month (n) of the
previous year ; [4] last 12 months / previous 12 months.
II
129
Timor-Leste
Monthly
change
[1]
Table A.II.6.4.
BALANCE OF PAYMENTS | USD millions
II
2007
2008
2009
Est.
2010
Est.
2011
Prog.
2011
Est.
2012
Prog.
1. CURRENT ACCOUNT
1,177
2,029
1,315
1,697
2,376
2,384
1,773
1.1. Trade account
-169
-285
-361
-557
-666
-344
-795
7
14
9
18
22
34
33
6
13
8
17
20
12
30
-176
-299
-370
-575
-689
-378
-829
…
-48
-50
-42
-52
…
-52
BANCO DE PORTUGAL | ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENTS IN PORTUGUESE-SPEAKING AFRICAN COUNTRIES AND TIMOR-LESTE 2011/2012
130
Exports(a)
of which: Coffee
Imports
of which: Food
Manufactures
1.2. Services (net)
Exports
of which: Travel
…
-169
-263
-267
-537
…
-668
-263
-433
-528
-409
-690
-1,420
-641
63
46
46
68
93
65
103
26
16
13
20
42
22
50
-325
-478
-574
-477
-782
-1,486
-744
-286
-364
-375
-351
-446
…
-362
1,331
2,410
1,845
2,342
3,284
3,621
2,847
1,312
2,399
1,842
2,320
3,261
3,240
2,821
278
337
359
321
446
527
363
281
355
362
321
316
…
-1,031
-2,049
-1,275
-1,609
-2,377
-2,329
32
17
27
59
35
26
30
-1,064
-2,057
-1,289
-1,397
-2,412
-2,314
-1,644
of which: Investment of oil savings
-1,012
-2,003
-1,325
-1,419
-2,461
-2,407
-1,585
Items in transit, errors and omissions
1
-9
-13
-271
0
-41
0
147
-20
39
88
-3
55
160
-147
20
-39
-88
3
-55
-160
-147
20
-39
-88
3
-55
-160
Imports
of which: relating to the UN and donors
1.3. Income (net)
of which: Oil revenue(b)
1.4. Current transfers
of which: International assistance
2. CAPITAL AND FINANCIAL ACCOUNT
Official capital transfers
Financial account
3. OVERALL BALANCE
4. FINANCING
Change in net foreign assets (increase: - )
(as a percentage of non-oil GDP)
Memo item:
Oil income
(b)
-1,614
249.9
360.8
233.7
265.1
347.3
307.4
225.3
Current account
224.2
305.1
166.8
193.9
253.0
226.2
141.6
Current account (excl. international assistance)
170.7
251.7
120.9
157.2
219.4
226.2
141.6
Current and capital account
230.3
307.7
170.3
200.7
256.8
228.7
144.0
Sources: Banco Central de Timor-Leste, Ministry of Finance, IMF and Banco de Portugal calculations.
Notes: (a) Oil revenue is accounted for in the income account, and therefore is not included in merchandise exports
owing to lack of broken-down data; (b) Includes interest from oil income investments.
Table A.II.6.5.
MERCHANDISE EXPORTS | By country of destination, as a percentage of total
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2004 to 2011
II
6.3
Australia
20.7
24.2
2.4
26.3
27.9
25.3
47.2
31.8
7.3
5.5
3.6
7.8
2.1
3.0
4.1
2.4
4.5
United States
50.9
49.1
40.8
45.9
26.2
33.8
43.2
24.1
44.3
Indonesia
18.3
5.0
13.6
5.0
16.4
4.9
4.2
3.7
10.5
Japan
0.0
1.2
1.4
0.0
5.0
4.7
3.7
5.6
4.1
Portugal
8.3
11.9
2.1
2.6
6.3
8.9
4.3
0.9
6.7
Singapore
2.3
1.1
7.6
17.6
10.8
3.4
9.0
4.3
7.6
Other
6.5
5.4
6.7
18.7
6.9
13.4
6.1
11.7
9.7
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
Total exports
Sources: Banco Central de Timor-Leste, Ministry of Finance, IMF and Banco de Portugal calculations.
Notes: Only coffee exports.
Table A.II.6.6.
MERCHANDISE EXPORTS | By country of origin, as a percentage of total
2004
Australia
China
Indonesia
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2004 to 2011
17.7
13.9
12.5
13.5
13.8
16.7
15.8
4.8
12.8
0.9
1.7
2.5
3.3
2.1
4.1
7.4
18.8
7.3
52.9
47.0
43.0
27.7
42.5
32.6
36.2
30.7
37.1
Japan
1.1
10.4
2.5
9.1
2.3
2.7
3.3
1.8
3.2
Portugal
1.5
1.6
2.2
0.9
1.2
3.4
2.4
1.5
2.0
13.3
14.6
19.4
13.7
17.1
18.9
20.4
6.8
15.1
Vietnam
4.8
4.5
5.0
2.1
7.0
12.2
4.7
2.3
5.7
Other
7.7
6.4
12.8
29.7
14.0
9.3
9.8
33.3
16.8
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
Singapore
Total imports
Sources: Banco Central de Timor-Leste, Ministry of Finance, IMF and Banco de Portugal calculations.
Notes: Excludes imports under the UN, diplomatic representations and donors.
Timor-Leste
131
Germany
Table A.II.6.7.
GOVERNMENT OPERATIONS (a) | USD millions
II
Fiscal year:
Est.
BANCO DE PORTUGAL | ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENTS IN PORTUGUESE-SPEAKING AFRICAN COUNTRIES AND TIMOR-LESTE 2011/2012
132
Total revenue
2011
2008 2009 2010
(a)
Est. Budg.
2,452 1,908 2,404
2012
(b)
Budg.(a)
Est. l.e.
2,940 3,370
114.6
Proj.
2,226 2,957
Domestic revenue
53
66
84
111
108
97.8
136
136
Direct taxes
19
13
19
22
28
124.8
41
41
Indirect taxes
19
30
26
43
51
118.9
55
57
Other revenue
6
16
39
46
30
64.9
41
38
2,830 3,262
115.3
2,090 2,823
1,306 1,093
83.7
1,674 1,417
Oil revenue
Total expenditure (cash basis)
2,399 1,842 2,320
533
573
794
358
364
527
577
501
86.9
716
680
53
86
93
118
112
94.9
140
138
Goods and services
154
158
243
283
246
87.0
376
346
Transfers and subsidies
151
120
192
176
143
81.5
200
196
175
209
268
730
592
81.1
958
737
Current expenditure
Personnel expenditure
Capital expenditure
Overall balance (cash basis)
Overall balance (excl. oil revenue)
Financing
1,919 1,335 1,610
1,634 2,277
552 1,540
-480
-507
-711
-1,195
-985
-1,538 -1,283
1,538 1,283
480
507
711
1,195
985
Change in cash balances (increase: -)
91
1
-125
64
-78
Drawings from the Petroleum Fund
396
512
811
0
0
0
0
0
43
43
-7
-6
25
76
8
0
0
Indebtedness - disbursements
Other
(c)
(increase: -)
1,055 1,055
0
-255
1,495 1,495
Memo item:
Total GDP
4,415 3,283 4,131
4,194 4,612
4,073 4,073
1,252 1,252
Non-oil GDP
665
788
875
825 1,054
Overall balance, cash basis (% of non-oil GDP)
289
169
184
198
216
44
123
-72
-64
-81
-145
-93
-123
-102
excl. oil revenue
Petroleum Fund ( cumulated )
USD millions ( end of period )
% of non-oil GDP
4,197 5,377 6,904
631
682
789
8,271 9,310
1003
883
Sources: Banco Central de Timor-Leste, Ministry of Finance, IMF and Banco de Portugal calculations.
Notes: (a) Central Administration Budget; (b) Level of budget execution, per cent;
(c) Including items in transit, errors and omissions.
9,300 9,300
743
743
[ ABPTL up to Sep. 2011 ]
(b)
2,086
Petroleum Fund assets (USD millions)
6.1
4,197
87
102
2
191
-72
99
-241
12
-230
-202
-28
0
-28
211
210
421
393
2008
Dec
5.6
5,377
111
155
3
268
-72
104
-207
1
-206
-174
-14
-12
-26
219
250
469
443
2009
Decz
7.3
6,904
154
138
3
295
-105
110
-353
22
-331
-327
-16
-12
-28
244
406
650
622
2010
Dec
-54.4
2.3
70.4
5.9
160
38.5
29.4
6.8
9,310
159
-10.8
28.4
4
322
-87
133
-419
6
-413
-366
-53
-14
-68
259
498
756
689
2011
Dec
20.5
9.9
7.9
1851.2
9.9
-46.5
60.5
-12.6
-56.8
87.4
47.0
-0.8
14.8
7.1
0.1
9.2
-0.7
11.3
-1.7
58.2
67.4
38.6
62.5
66.7
40.4
2010/2009
[1]
[2]
-6.2
34.8
4.0
15.1
14.5
9.3
-17.9
21.1
18.4
-73.7
24.7
12.1
230.4
21.7
141.6
6.3
22.5
16.4
10.8
9.3
6.4
7.8
-22.1
-5.6
-27.7
-13.4
-12.6
-0.9
-13.4
5.2
31.0
36.1
22.7
2011/2010
[1]
[2]
7.4
10,601
190
173
4
367
-174
156
-447
0
-447
-465
-90
-12
-101
415
429
845
743
2012
Jul
Est.
reliable indicators on cash inflows and outflows, within the context of the official dollarisation; (b) Imports of goods and services.
[1] Change from the end of the previous year; [2] Change from the broad money at the end of the previous year (liquidity expansion/contraction factors).
7.9
27.4
16.9
13.9
-27.2
7.3
-8.9
-1.8
-10.8
-30.7
-11.3
0.8
-10.5
48.6
-21.2
13.9 (jun)
19.1
8.8
11.1
13.9
101.3
17.8
6.9
-100.0
8.4
27.0
68.7
-18.1
50.1
60.5
-13.7
11.7
7.9
Jul 2012 /
Dec 2011
[1]
[2]
Timor-Leste
Notes: (a) This aggregate only includes coins (centavos, sub denominations of the USD) issued by Banco Central de Timor-Leste, excluding USD banknotes in circulation, owing to the absence of
Sources: Banco Central de Timor-Leste (BCTL), IMF and Banco de Portugal calculations.
Net foreign assets (in months of imports)
7.6
68
Memo item:
73
Time deposits and other deposits
2
Demand deposits
Currency in circulation (a)
144
-56
BROAD MONEY
101
Other assets (net)
-219
0
-219
-174
-38
0
Credit to the private sector
Deposits
Gross loans
Net claims on government
NET DOMESTIC ASSETS
Commercial banks
BCTL
-38
126
Commercial banks
Foreign liabilities
230
356
BCTL [ ABPTL up to Sep. 2011 ]
318
Foreign assets
2007
Dec
NET FOREIGN ASSETS
MONETARY SURVEY | USD millions
Table A.II.6.8.
II
133
Table A.II.6.9.
EXCHANGE RATES | Average rates
II
BANCO DE PORTUGAL | ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENTS IN PORTUGUESE-SPEAKING AFRICAN COUNTRIES AND TIMOR-LESTE 2011/2012
134
Australian
dollar
Indonesian
rupiah
Euro
E E R I (a)(b)
USD/AUD
USD/IDR
EUR/USD
Nominal
2000
1.73
8,402
0.92
92.38
Real
2001
1.93
10,260
0.90
106.82
101.29
2002
1.84
9,319
0.94
100.16
92.36
2003
1.54
8,574
1.13
91.64
86.82
2004
1.36
8,938
1.24
90.92
85.22
2005
1.31
9,709
1.24
94.31
83.99
2006
1.33
9,167
1.26
90.50
77.33
2007
1.20
9,140
1.37
87.38
78.79
2008
1.20
9,690
1.47
88.98
80.69
2009
1.28
10,412
1.39
94.60
83.87
2010
1.09
9,085
1.33
83.54
75.91
2011
0.97
8,777
1.39
78.57
77.25
2010 January
1.09
9,293
1.43
85.20
76.88
February
1.13
9,342
1.37
86.18
78.37
March
1.10
9,164
1.36
84.59
77.20
April
1.08
9,027
1.34
83.33
76.02
May
1.15
9,166
1.26
85.29
77.82
June
1.17
9,148
1.22
85.62
77.93
July
1.14
9,042
1.28
84.31
76.32
August
1.11
8,976
1.29
83.21
75.15
September
1.07
8,966
1.31
82.18
74.17
October
1.02
8,927
1.39
80.79
73.09
November
1.01
8,948
1.37
80.70
73.29
December
1.01
9,021
1.32
81.11
74.75
2011 January
1.00
9,040
1.34
80.90
74.72
February
0.99
8,913
1.36
79.90
76.50
March
0.99
8,760
1.40
78.96
77.82
April
0.95
8,651
1.44
77.41
76.31
May
0.94
8,565
1.43
76.68
75.52
June
0.94
8,564
1.44
76.73
75.56
July
0.93
8,533
1.43
76.09
74.63
August
0.95
8,532
1.43
76.36
74.52
September
0.98
8,766
1.38
78.54
77.11
October
0.99
8,895
1.37
79.78
79.07
November
0.99
9,015
1.36
80.43
80.95
December
0.99
9,088
1.32
81.02
84.26
2012 January
0.96
9,109
1.29
80.48
84.40
February
0.93
9,026
1.32
79.17
82.32
March
0.95
9,165
1.32
80.20
83.89
April
0.97
9,176
1.32
80.44
84.64
May
1.00
9,290
1.28
81.74
86.09
June
1.00
9,451
1.25
82.80
86.97
July
0.97
9,452
1.23
82.06
--
August
0.96
9,486
1.25
81.71
--
Sources:
Bank Indonesia, Reserve Bank of Australia, Monetary Authority of Singapore and Banco de Portugal; Banco de Portugal
calculations.
Notes:
(a) Effective exchange rate index (EERI), calculated on the basis of rates applied to the three main trading partners over the period
2005/2009; (b) An increase/decrease in the EERI (nominal or real) corresponds to an appreciation/depreciation of the USD (Index,
100: January 2001).
ECONOMIC AND FINANCIAL RELATIONS
OF PORTUGAL WITH PORTUGUESE-SPEAKING
AFRICAN COUNTRIES AND TIMOR-LESTE
III
Table A.III.1.1.
PORTUGAL/PORTUGUESE-SPEAKING AFRICAN COUNTRIES AND TIMOR-LESTE: MERCHANDISE IMPORTS
AND EXPORTS (PORTUGAL'S PERSPECTIVE) | EUR millions
Cape Verde
GuineaS.Tomé and
Mozambique
Bissau
Príncipe
Imp. Exp. Imp. Exp. Imp. Exp.
Imp.
Exp.
13
43
421
13
45
476
0
13
79
584
1
17
62
580
67
4
19
64
517
45
69
9
19
123
657
40
63
3
21
182
745
21
37
54
0
30
1
1
121
823
17
38
54
0
25
1
5
52
890
909
Imp.
Exp.
Imp.
Exp.
1995
10
259
6
89
5
23
23
37
0
1996
10
305
8
97
4
22
24
40
0
1997
39
394
9
109
2
25
27
43
1998
22
368
9
118
2
16
28
61
1999
10
277
10
138
0
17
39
2000
58
371
10
170
1
28
2001
127
504
9
135
3
23
2002
70
570
9
148
3
2003
2
652
9
137
2
Imp.
Exp.
2004
2
671
11
140
1
18
26
55
0
24
1
1
41
2005
25
802
7
148
1
24
32
64
0
22
1
1
66 1,061
2006
53 1,210
7
190
1
27
29
74
1
28
1
2
92 1,531
2007
369 1,684
7
228
1
35
26
89
0
33
0
1
403 2,070
2008
408 2,261
9
258
1
40
34
92
0
37
1
2
452 2,690
2009
2010
151 2,236
7
223
1
33
43
120
0
36
1
9
204 2,656
563 1,910
7
263
0
43
29
149
0
43
1
7
602 2,415
2011 1,177 2,332
10
255
0
64
42
217
0
47
1
5
1,231 2,919
Source: Statistics Portugal (INE).
Table A.III.1.2.
SHARE OF TRADE WITH PORTUGUESE-SPEAKING AFRICAN COUNTRIES AND TIMOR-LESTE IN
PORTUGUESE TRADE | Per cent
Angola
Cape Verde
GuineaS.Tomé and
Mozambique
Bissau
Príncipe
Imp. Exp. Imp. Exp. Imp. Exp.
Timor-Leste
TOTAL
Imp.
Exp.
0.1
0.2
2.8
0.1
0.2
2.5
0.0
0.1
0.3
2.7
0.0
0.1
0.2
2.5
0.3
0.0
0.1
0.2
2.2
0.1
0.3
0.0
0.1
0.3
2.4
0.1
0.1
0.2
0.0
0.1
0.4
2.7
0.1
0.1
0.2
0.0
0.1
0.0
0.0
0.3
2.9
0.0
0.1
0.1
0.2
0.0
0.1
0.0
0.0
0.1
3.0
0.5
0.0
0.1
0.1
0.2
0.0
0.1
0.0
0.0
0.1
2.9
0.0
0.5
0.0
0.1
0.1
0.2
0.0
0.1
0.0
0.0
0.1
3.4
0.0
0.5
0.0
0.1
0.1
0.2
0.0
0.1
0.0
0.0
0.2
4.3
4.4
0.0
0.6
0.0
0.1
0.0
0.2
0.0
0.1
0.0
0.0
0.7
5.4
2008
0.7
5.8
0.0
0.7
0.0
0.1
0.1
0.2
0.0
0.1
0.0
0.0
0.7
6.9
2009
2010
0.3
7.0
0.0
0.7
0.0
0.1
0.1
0.4
0.0
0.1
0.0
0.0
0.4
8.3
1.0
5.2
0.0
0.7
0.0
0.1
0.1
0.4
0.0
0.1
0.0
0.0
1.1
6.5
2011
2.1
5.5
0.0
0.6
0.0
0.2
0.1
0.5
0.0
0.1
0.0
0.0
2.2
6.9
Imp.
Exp.
Imp.
Exp.
1995
0.0
1.7
0.0
0.6
0.0
0.1
0.1
0.2
0.0
1996
0.0
1.6
0.0
0.5
0.0
0.1
0.1
0.2
0.0
1997
0.1
1.8
0.0
0.5
0.0
0.1
0.1
0.2
1998
0.1
1.6
0.0
0.5
0.0
0.1
0.1
0.3
1999
0.0
1.2
0.0
0.6
0.0
0.1
0.1
2000
0.1
1.4
0.0
0.6
0.0
0.1
2001
0.3
1.8
0.0
0.5
0.0
2002
0.2
2.0
0.0
0.5
0.0
2003
0.0
2.2
0.0
0.5
2004
0.0
2.2
0.0
2005
0.1
2.6
2006
0.1
3.4
2007
0.6
Sources: Statistics Portugal (INE) and Banco de Portugal calculations.
Imp.
Exp.
III
TOTAL
Timor-Leste
139
Portugal’s trade relations and balances of payments with Portuguese-speaking African countries and Timor-Leste
Angola
Source: Statistics Portugal (INE).
Total
15.31
1.99
5.30
7.57
3.34
2.51
0.42
25.43
26.39
70.19
9.72
4.09
10.44
80.73
5.58
22.69
60.38
23.10
25.32
10.55
92.26
233.81
482.76
116.69
52.38
138.39
263.15
0.32
20.99
121.05
1,910.25
3.19
2.58
19.56
42.84
1.62
5.50
2.76
6.14
0.25
0.37
0.39
0.42
0.30
0.03
0.84
1.23
6.39
10.88
31.78
314.85
2.21
G. Bissau
25.09
C. Verde
110.15
149.24
7.85
5.73
5.02
49.83
16.88
6.04
0.83
1.38
1.71
13.48
1.00
0.31
8.35
10.75
2.10
13.10
4.88
Mozamb.
42.67
1.31
0.83
2.34
7.62
3.12
2.99
0.30
0.89
0.47
1.12
0.13
0.22
2.29
3.27
0.61
9.20
5.96
S. Tomé
159.91
63.36
137.06
620.29
283.33
132.89
12.36
30.47
29.10
83.22
29.47
8.14
107.54
157.33
31.24
380.58
148.54
Total
6.68 2,414.82
0.31
0.01
0.10
4.39
0.37
0.03
0.01
0.08
0.24
0.06
0.00
0.03
0.03
0.00
0.77
0.24
Timor-L.
2,331.65
158.23
56.92
96.60
506.73
301.82
94.77
13.16
33.24
29.68
79.54
24.45
5.26
105.46
166.23
53.38
422.73
183.42
Angola
254.99
10.35
2.86
11.68
51.66
27.97
22.50
0.47
3.10
3.77
8.24
4.77
1.88
14.37
21.31
4.92
33.30
31.85
C. Verde
64.37
1.68
0.20
3.04
6.85
2.95
6.19
0.13
0.23
0.40
0.41
0.23
0.02
1.11
1.56
22.41
13.38
3.61
G. Bissau
216.66
11.94
3.39
20.11
81.83
23.50
7.33
1.17
1.90
2.02
13.52
2.05
0.62
9.98
12.23
2.10
17.42
5.55
Mozamb.
46.61
1.38
0.77
4.08
7.62
3.28
2.07
0.26
0.89
0.44
0.97
0.20
0.09
2.00
3.38
1.68
10.33
7.17
S. Tomé
183.71
64.16
135.67
656.77
360.03
132.93
15.19
39.37
36.37
103.38
31.74
7.88
132.96
204.70
84.50
497.98
231.84
Total
4.91 2,919.19
0.15
0.02
0.16
2.07
0.50
0.08
0.00
0.01
0.06
0.69
0.04
0.00
0.05
0.01
0.00
0.82
0.24
Timor-L.
140
Angola
2011
III
Agricultural
Food
Mineral fuels
Chemicals
Plastics, rubber products
Leather, leather products
Wood, cork
Pulp, paper
Textile products
Clothing
Footwear
Minerals, ores
Base metals
Machinery, equipment
Motor vehicles, other transport equipment
Optical and precision instruments
Other products
2010
PORTUGAL/PORTUGUESE-SPEAKING AFRICAN COUNTRIES AND TIMOR-LESTE: EXPORTS BY GROUP OF PRODUCTS (PORTUGAL'S PERSPECTIVE) | EUR millions
Table A.III.1.3.
BANCO DE PORTUGAL | ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENTS IN PORTUGUESE-SPEAKING AFRICAN COUNTRIES AND TIMOR-LESTE 2011/2012
Total
Agricultural
Food
Mineral fuels
Chemicals
Plastics, rubber products
Leather, leather products
Wood, cork
Pulp, paper
Textile products
Clothing
Footwear
Minerals, ores
Base metals
Machinery, equipment
Motor vehicles, other transport equipment
Optical and precision instruments
Other products
0.01
2.36
3.32
0.01
0.12
0.70
0.10
0.07
0.00
0.01
0.00
0.00
0.25
0.25
2.10
0.70
0.24
0.16
0.39
0.00
0.01
0.03
0.04
0.22
0.00
0.00
29.18
0.05
0.04
0.00
0.30
1.40
0.05
0.01
0.03
0.34
0.00
0.09
0.04
0.29
0.00
0.02
0.00
0.05
0.00
0.00
0.07
0.15
S. Tomé
1.12
0.00
0.10
0.00
0.00
1.02
Timor-L.
601.91
0.21
0.39
0.84
3.29
1.98
0.31
3.33
2.40
0.36
0.03
0.43
0.12
0.05
0.19
558.91
16.23
12.84
Total
1177.49
0.35
1.14
0.92
1.95
0.09
0.32
0.00
0.01
0.01
0.04
0.81
0.01
0.06
0.01
1,169.43
0.03
2.31
Angola
9.97
0.01
0.01
0.29
0.91
0.11
0.00
3.57
3.95
0.05
0.01
0.00
0.01
0.03
0.24
0.78
C. Verde
0.26
0.00
0.03
0.01
0.01
0.15
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.01
0.05
G. Bissau
2011
41.98
9.03
0.04
0.00
0.21
0.01
0.08
0.00
0.01
2.30
0.00
0.02
0.01
0.01
0.01
20.71
9.55
Mozamb.
0.27
0.00
0.06
0.03
0.01
0.00
0.00
0.04
0.12
S. Tomé
Portugal’s trade relations and balances of payments with Portuguese-speaking African countries and Timor-Leste
7.48
0.00
0.03
563.45
0.00
0.34
0.00
0.08
0.00
0.01
0.01
0.01
0.06
0.13
0.03
15.64
11.13
0.00
0.00
2010
Mozamb.
0.00
0.34
0.18
0.07
G. Bissau
558.91
0.23
C. Verde
0.25
Angola
PORTUGAL/PORTUGUESE-SPEAKING AFRICAN COUNTRIES AND TIMOR-LESTE: IMPORTS BY GROUP OF PRODUCTS (PORTUGAL'S PERSPECTIVE) | EUR millions
Table A.III.1.4.
9.39
1.23
1.28
3.17
0.37
0.40
3.58
3.97
2.37
0.05
0.83
0.02
0.08
0.04
1,169.43
21.03
13.76
Total
1.03 1,230.99
0.01
0.07
0.00
0.00
0.95
Timor-L.
III
141
Table A.III.1.5.
III
CURRENT AND CAPITAL ACCOUNTS WITH PORTUGUESE-SPEAKING AFRICAN COUNTRIES AND TIMORLESTE (PORTUGAL'S PERSPECTIVE) | EUR millions
Current account
Merchandise
BANCO DE PORTUGAL | ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENTS IN PORTUGUESE-SPEAKING AFRICAN COUNTRIES AND TIMOR-LESTE 2011/2012
142
Angola
Current transfers
Export.
Import.
Balance
Services
Income
of which:
Total
Remittances
Emig.
Imig.
Capital
Balance account
2007 1,682.5
362.5
1,320.0
364.9
123.9
21.2
48.1
12.3
1,829.9
-87.5
2008 2,270.6
402.5
1,868.1
557.2
130.1
43.2
70.9
13.1
2,598.6
20.6
2009 2,241.4
151.7
2,089.7
549.1
359.9
112.1
103.5
12.3
3,110.9
-4.5
2010 1,913.0
552.7
1,360.3
689.4
510.6
155.3
134.9
13.5
2,715.5
-2.8
2011 2,336.5 1,139.2
1,197.3
950.3
208.4
169.6
147.3
12.9
2,525.6
3.8
218.3
16.6
-9.3
-36.5
2.6
22.3
189.2
-5.4
2007
226.2
2008
259.1
9.2
249.8
24.8
-8.3
-35.8
2.1
23.7
230.5
-7.7
2009
222.6
7.5
215.1
29.2
5.2
-35.9
2.5
20.9
213.7
-1.3
2010
263.2
8.0
255.1
10.0
22.3
-25.9
3.1
12.9
261.5
-1.7
2011
255.2
11.1
244.1
5.5
14.3
-6.6
2.8
13.3
257.3
-1.0
2007
34.2
0.5
33.7
3.8
1.1
-6.5
0.6
6.1
32.1
-1.3
2008
Guinea-Bissau 2009
40.3
0.6
39.7
3.0
9.4
-9.4
0.1
6.5
42.7
-1.2
33.4
1.4
32.1
3.7
-1.1
-4.5
0.3
5.1
30.2
-1.5
2010
42.8
0.7
42.1
4.3
6.6
-5.4
0.3
4.8
47.6
-2.5
2011
64.4
2.1
62.3
5.5
1.6
-5.3
0.2
4.3
64.0
-1.0
2007
89.5
34.8
54.7
21.1
161.0
5.6
2.4
5.9
242.3
-2.5
2008
Mozambique 2009
92.7
42.2
50.5
21.2
77.5
-2.3
2.3
3.2
146.9
-101.3
120.8
46.6
74.2
19.8
46.5
-3.2
2.4
3.2
137.3
-14.2
2010
150.8
32.7
118.1
33.9
60.9
-3.5
2.7
4.5
209.4
-14.6
2011
217.9
45.7
172.3
49.6
53.4
7.3
4.7
5.7
282.6
-14.8
2007
33.1
0.8
32.3
9.3
3.1
-0.7
0.4
1.0
44.0
0.0
2008
36.6
2.0
34.6
5.4
1.1
-0.8
0.1
0.6
40.3
-0.2
2009
35.5
2.0
33.5
6.0
0.8
0.4
0.2
0.4
40.7
-1.4
2010
42.6
1.8
40.9
7.2
1.0
-1.3
0.1
1.3
47.8
-1.3
2011
46.7
1.2
45.5
9.0
1.2
0.0
0.3
0.8
55.7
-1.1
2007
1.2
0.2
1.0
-4.6
3.3
0.1
0.0
0.1
-0.1
-0.3
2008
2.1
0.5
1.6
-9.5
6.5
-1.3
0.2
0.1
-2.7
-0.5
2009
9.3
1.0
8.3
0.7
7.9
-0.9
0.3
0.1
16.0
-1.0
2010
6.7
1.2
5.5
-3.8
16.3
0.1
0.3
0.1
17.9
-0.2
2011
Cape Verde
S. Tomé and
Príncipe
Timor-Leste
Total of
Portuguesespeaking
African
Countries and
Timor-Leste
7.8
5.2
1.1
4.1
1.1
7.1
-5.0
0.4
0.1
7.3
-0.6
2007 2,066.6
406.7
1,659.9
411.1
283.1
-16.8
54.0
47.6
2,337.4
-97.1
2008 2,701.4
457.0
2,244.4
602.2
216.2
-6.4
75.7
47.1
3,056.4
-90.2
2009 2,663.1
210.2
2,452.9
608.6
419.3
67.9
109.1
42.0
3,548.7
-23.9
2010 2,419.1
597.2
1,822.0
741.1
617.6
119.1
141.5
37.1
3,299.7
-23.1
2011 2,925.9 1,200.3
1,725.5
1,020.9
286.1
160.0
155.8
37.0
3,192.5
-14.7
Source: Banco de Portugal.
Table A.III.2.1.
2010
Inv. Desinv.
Angola
Prof., scientific and tech. activ. and administrative and support service activ.
Information and communication activities
Real estate activities
Agricultural, animal prod., hunting, forestry, fishing and mining and quarrying
Trade; repair of motor vehicles; transp. and storage; accomm., food service
Construction
Electricity, gas, steam, water, sewerage, waste manag. and remediation activ.
Manufacturing
Monetary intermediation
Other financial and insurance activities
Other activities
TOTAL
Cape Verde
Prof., scientific and tech. activ. and administrative and support service activ.
Information and communication activities
Real estate activities
Trade; repair of motor vehicles; transp. and storage; accomm., food service
Construction
Manufacturing
Monetary intermediation
Other activities
TOTAL
Guinea-Bissau
Prof., scientific and tech. activ. and administrative and support service activ.
Information and communication activities
Trade; repair of motor vehicles; transp. and storage; accomm., food service
Construction
Manufacturing
Monetary intermediation
Other activities
TOTAL
Mozambique
Prof., scientific and tech. activ. and administrative and support service activ.
Information and communication activities
Real estate activities
Agricultural, animal prod., hunting, forestry, fishing and mining and quarrying
Trade; repair of motor vehicles; transp. and storage; accomm., food service
Construction
Electricity, gas, steam, water, sewerage, waste manag. and remediation activ.
Manufacturing
Monetary intermediation
Other financial and insurance activities
Other activities
TOTAL
S. Tomé and
Príncipe
Information and communication activities
Agricultural, animal prod., hunting, forestry, fishing and mining and quarrying
Trade; repair of motor vehicles; transp. and storage; accomm., food service
Construction
Electricity, gas, steam, water, sewerage, waste manag. and remediation activ.
Manufacturing
Monetary intermediation
Other activities
TOTAL
Timor-Leste
Prof., scientific and tech. activ. and administrative and support service activ.
Monetary intermediation
Other activities
TOTAL
Total Portuguese-speaking African countries and Timor-Leste
7.0
0.3
0.5
6.6
0.1
0.4
165.4
221.6
0.2
3.4
263.9
1.9
5.3
669.5
0.9
0.0
0.0
0.6
12.0
5.9
30.0
0.2
49.6
4.2
3.1
26.2
399.1
12.8
52.5
14.5
512.1
0.4
2.8
25.9
0.0
29.1
1.0
2.3
0.0
9.6
6.3
0.5
0.8
0.0
2.5
32.8
0.7
2.6
33.4
0.0
0.3
79.9
1.0
2.0
0.2
1.3
12.5
3.9
0.2
17.9
0.1
0.3
2.2
0.4
0.0
2.9
0.0
9.7
1.0
10.7
822.3
Source: Banco de Portugal. Statistics prepared on the basis of the Survey on Portuguese Investment Abroad.
2.9
1.0
0.1
2011
Inv. Desinv.
2.3
0.0
0.0
0.3
100.7
97.6
0.1
0.5
40.5
2.5
1.7
246.4
0.9
0.0
0.0
0.2
10.9
0.4
4.6
0.3
17.4
0.1
0.0
0.0
0.1
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.0
4.4
0.0
8.3
29.9
1.4
0.7
28.8
0.0
0.8
74.7
0.0
0.5
0.2
4.3
13.0
0.3
2.6
0.7
68.7
441.0
0.1
13.7
29.5
1.9
571.7
0.1
64.0
0.3
0.5
1.8
66.6
0.0
4.0
0.1
151.4
0.7
3.6
0.5
160.4
0.0
9.3
1.8
0.3
2.2
0.1
0.5
0.0
5.7
0.3
0.3
0.0
0.7
0.0
0.0
569.7
345.1
808.4
2.2
6.3
0.4
9.7
III
145
Bilateral direct investment with Portuguese-speaking African countries and Timor-Leste
PORTUGUESE DIRECT INVESTMENT IN PORTUGUESE-SPEAKING AFRICAN COUNTRIES AND TIMOR-LESTE
| By sector of activity, EUR millions
Table A.III.2.2.
III
DIRECT INVESTMENT OF PORTUGUESE-SPEAKING AFRICAN COUNTRIES AND TIMOR-LESTE IN
PORTUGAL | By sector of activity, EUR millions
2010
Inv. Desinv.
BANCO DE PORTUGAL | ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENTS IN PORTUGUESE-SPEAKING AFRICAN COUNTRIES AND TIMOR-LESTE 2011/2012
146
Angola
Prof., scientific and tech. activ. and administrative and support service activ.
Information and communication activities
Real estate activities
Agricultural, animal prod., hunting, forestry, fishing and mining and quarrying
Trade; repair of motor vehicles; transp. and storage; accomm., food service
Construction
Manufacturing
Monetary intermediation
Other activities
TOTAL
Cape Verde
Prof., scientific and tech. activ. and administrative and support service activ.
Information and communication activities
Real estate activities
Trade; repair of motor vehicles; transp. and storage; accomm., food service
Construction
Monetary intermediation
Other activities
TOTAL
Trade; repair of motor vehicles; transp. and storage; accomm., food service
Construction
Guinea-Bissau
Other activities
TOTAL
Prof., scientific and tech. activ. and administrative and support service activ.
Information and communication activities
Real estate activities
Agricultural, animal prod., hunting, forestry, fishing and mining and quarrying
Trade; repair of motor vehicles; transp. and storage; accomm., food service
Mozambique
Construction
Manufacturing
Monetary intermediation
Other activities
TOTAL
S. Tomé and
Príncipe
0.0
4.5
0.2
8.4
2.1
0.1
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
10.0
0.1
11.6
0.7
2.7
10.7
0.0
30.7
3.8
70.3
0.8
0.0
3.1
0.0
1.7
0.4
0.1
6.0
0.0
0.2
1.8
0.1
0.0
2.2
Prof., scientific and tech. activ. and administrative and support service activ.
Monetary intermediation
Other activities
TOTAL
Total Portuguese-speaking African countries and Timor-Leste
0.1
0.0
0.2
1.2
0.1
0.2
1.8
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.4
2.6
0.0
0.1
1.3
0.0
0.0
0.2
0.2
0.0
0.1
0.1
0.0
0.1
0.0
0.2
0.1
0.1
0.0
0.2
0.0
1.5
1.5
0.4
2.0
1.0
0.3
0.8
Agricultural, animal prod., hunting, forestry, fishing and mining and quarrying
Monetary intermediation
Other activities
TOTAL
Timor-Leste
9.7
0.0
8.8
2.9
1.0
0.9
0.1
6.9
2.4
32.8
3.6
2011
Inv. Desinv.
1.4
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
45.3
Source: Banco de Portugal. Statistics prepared on the basis of the Survey on Portuguese Investment Abroad.
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
2.2
0.0
2.2
4.4
79.3
3.3
0.0
In 2010 Guinea-Bissau had, in fact, reached the completion point under the HIPC Initiative and, at the
same time, gained access to the Multilateral Debt Relief Initiative, which made it possible to cut by
Club agreed on the near total forgiveness of Guinea-Bissau’s debt to its members. The authorities of
Guinea-Bissau are now in the process of seeking similar debt relief from its remaining creditors.
As in 2010, São Tomé and Príncipe’s debt to Portugal increased somewhat in 2011 (by USD 15 million),
reflecting further disbursements under the concessional credit line signed in February 2009, mainly to
fund road infrastructures and the electric power distribution network. Outstanding direct debt has
remained stable since 2008, while the grace period laid down in the debt restructuring and gradual
write-off agreement signed in July 2008 under the HIPC Initiative still applies.
III
149
Debt of Portuguese-speaking African countries to Portugal
around USD 1.2 billion Guinea-Bissau’s multilateral debt. Also in that context, in May 2011 the Paris
Table A.III.3.1.
OFFICIAL DEBT OF PORTUGUESE-SPEAKING AFRICAN COUNTRIES TO PORTUGAL | USD millions
III
Direct debt to the State (1)
BANCO DE PORTUGAL | ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENTS IN PORTUGUESE-SPEAKING AFRICAN COUNTRIES AND TIMOR-LESTE 2011/2012
150
Due
Angola
Cape Verde
Guinea-Bissau
Mozambique
S. Tomé and
Príncipe
Total of
Portuguesespeaking
African
countries
Total
Due
Total
Due
698
698
375
375
1,073
1,073
2008
698
698
562
562
1,260
1,260
2009
670
670
686
686
1,356
1,356
2010
642
642
799
799
1,441
1,441
2011
614
614
994
994
1,608
1,608
2007
77
77
75
75
152
152
2008
95
95
58
58
153
153
2009
114
114
55
55
169
169
2010
134
134
133
133
268
268
2011
154
154
202
202
355
2007
85
46
131
85
46
131
2008
77
48
125
77
48
125
2009
81
53
134
81
53
134
2010
74
53
126
74
53
126
2011
70
55
125
70
55
125
2007
386
386
2008
393
393
2009
391
391
45
45
436
436
2010
388
388
135
135
523
523
2011
383
383
680
680
1,063
1,063
2007
23
35
23
2008
35
35
35
2009
35
35
2
2
37
37
2010
35
35
14
14
49
49
2011
35
35
29
29
64
64
2007
1,269
58
1,327
450
450
1,718
58
1,776
2008
1,299
48
1,346
620
620
1,919
48
1,967
2009
1,291
53
1,344
788
788
2,079
53
2,132
2010
1,273
53
1,326
1,081
1,081
2,354
53
2,407
2011
1,256
55
1,310
1,905
1,905
3,161
55
3,215
12
0
In arrears
Official debt (1)+(2)
2007
Sources: Ministry of Finance - GPEARI.
In arrears
Medium and long-term
State-guaranteed debt (2)
0
In arrears
Total
355
386
386
393
393
12
35
35