Climate modelling at
University of Oslo
F Stordal,
Univ of Oslo, Dept of Geosciences
Department of Geosciences
Models in SoCoCA
CAM: Global climate
RegCM: Regional climate
WASMOD: Hydrology
DSSAT: Agriculture
GRACE: Macro-economy
Department of Geosciences
Warming in all continents due to
man made activities
Department of Geosciences
Temperature to be more extreme
Department of Geosciences
IPCC, SREX report
Precipitation to be more extreme
Department of Geosciences
IPCC, SREX report
The climate system
Department of Geosciences
Bergen
Oslo
Atmospheric chemistry,
aerosols, clouds
CAM/CTM + Oslo
chemistry& aerosols
Bergen Climate
Model (BCM)
ARPEGE + MICOM
NorESM
Ocean and land carbon cycle
HAMOCC
Department of Geosciences
Representative concentration pathways
(RCPs) used in CMIP5
RCP8.5
RCP8.5 (Rising)
RCP6.0 (Stabilization)
RCP4.5 (Stabilization)
RCP2.6 (Peak and decline)
RCP4.5
RCP2.6
Moss et al.,
Nature, 2010
RCP6.0
Compatible with the full range of stabilization, mitigation and baseline emissions
scenarios available in the current scientific literature
Department of Geosciences
Natural vs human-induced forcings
°C, relative to 1850-1900, 5-yr filtered
ALL forcings
GHG only
TA only
VA and TSI only
Department of Geosciences
Simulated future global temperature change
According to NorESM only
RCP 2.6 pathway keeps us
below 2°C global warming
Department of Geosciences
Simulated change in surface temperature, RCP8.5
°C, 2090-2099 vs 1961-1990
Department of Geosciences
Simulated change in surface temperature, RCP6.0
°C, 2090-2099 vs 1961-1990
Department of Geosciences
Simulated change in surface temperature, RCP4.5
°C, 2090-2099 vs 1961-1990
Department of Geosciences
Simulated change in surface temperature, RCP2.6
°C, 2090-2099 vs 1961-1990
Department of Geosciences
Downscaling to regions and higher resolution
Department of Geosciences
Benestad et al., 2007
Dynamical downscaling
Department of Geosciences
Giorgi et al., WMO Bulletin
Department of Geosciences
Department of Geosciences
Department of Geosciences
Department of Geosciences
4 NEA
5 EEA
9 SEA
Department of Geosciences
Mean annual NEA
cycle rainfall
EEA
SEA
Department of Geosciences
Changes in regional climate due to
structural vegetation changes in Northern
boreal Europe
Johanne H. Rydsaa
Frode Stordal
Lena M. Tallaksen
Department of Geosciences, University of
Oslo, Oslo, Norway
Department of Geosciences
Department of Geosciences
Methods and tools
• Weather Research and Forecasting model (WRF)
• 5 year simulations (+1 year spinup)
– Years 2001-2005
• 27x27km resolution
• ERA interim initial- and boundary conditions
• Modis modified IGBP land vegetation data
• Manual pertubations to vegetation structure
• Control, Ex 1, Ex 2
Department of Geosciences
Experimental setup
Ex 1: Boreal forest northward migration
into wooded tundra (up to 100km) and
mixed tundra into wooded tundra.
Department of Geosciences
Ex 2: Ex1+ Mixed forest northward
migration into boreal evergreen needle
leaf forest (up to 100km)
Thank you for your attention!
Department of Geosciences