SUMMARY
Resource Planning Workshop:
Adapting to Climate Change at Devils Postpile National Monument
Convened in Yosemite Valley, October 8, 2008
Introduction – The Climate Science-Management Partnership
There is a growing consensus among land managers, scientists and policymakers that the
unprecedented challenges of climate change demand new approaches, including more rigorous
application of science to management. While understanding of climate change has grown within
the science community, the benefits of research do not always reach decision-makers on the
ground, nor is clear how to apply new information to resource management and planning.
Managers need greater access to information that is current and applicable, as well as discourse
with scientists to develop operational approaches for adaptation to changing climates.
A leading source of information on conceptual approaches and general management strategies
for adaptation to climate change on federal land is the U.S. Climate Change Science Program
Synthesis and Adaptation Product “Adaptation Options for Climate-Sensitive Ecosystems” (SAP
4.4) 1 . The purpose of this document is to review management options and to identify
characteristics of ecosystems and adaptation responses that promote successful implementation.
It includes two chapters devoted specifically to national park and national forest lands in the U.S.
These chapters include case studies that assess the issues and challenges associated with
implementation of adaptation options across a variety of ecosystem types. Overall, the SAP 4.4
report offers a broad framework for how to incorporate climate into management.
On a regional scale, the WestWide Climate Initiative, a research-management partnership among
western U.S. Forest Service (USFS) research stations and national forests, is working to
implement climate change science in the West. It is currently developing a toolkit that can be
used by managers and planners to integrate climate change into decision-making. This project
also involves collaboration with the National Park Service (NPS) and U.S. Geological Survey
(USGS) to address common interests in climate change adaptation and validate decision-support
tools across diverse landscapes and management objectives.
A primary goal of the toolkit project is to conduct case studies that transfer conceptual
approaches to real landscapes. On three national forests, staffs are developing (1) a rapid-audit
tool to screen projects for consistency with climate-change adaptation options, (2) an approach
for evaluating compatibility of management strategies with adaptation, and (3) a process for
addressing uncertainty and risk in national forest projects. Case studies are also being
conducted through the project’s collaboration with USGS scientists and NPS managers. Devils
Postpile National Monument is the primary NPS case study in the Sierra Nevada region.
1
U.S. Climate Change Science Program (CCSP), 2008: Preliminary review of adaptation options for climatesensitive ecosystems and resources. Julius, S.H., J.M. West (eds.), J.S. Baron, L.A. Joyce, P. Kareiva, B.D. Keller,
M.A. Palmer, C.H. Peterson, and J.M. Scott (Authors). U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Washington, DC.
www.climatescience.gov/Library/sap/sap4-4/final-report/
Draft December 5, 2008
1
Devils Postpile National Monument Context
The Devils Postpile National Monument (DEPO) is in a key policy phase. It is developing its
first General Management Plan (GMP) to identify the long-term future desired conditions for the
monument and guide park managers as they decide how to best protect monument resources and
manage visitation. The planning horizon of the GMP is 10-20 years. DEPO staff are also
embarking on development of a Resource Stewardship Plan to address operational and strategic
monitoring, adaptation, and mitigation needs. To integrate current science in these planning
processes, the monument’s superintendent, Deanna Dulen, collaborated with Connie Millar of
the USFS WestWide toolkit project and Angela Evenden, of the NPS Great Basin Cooperative
Ecosystems Study Unit. This resulted in a workshop for managers and scientists from USGS,
NPS and USFS to explore the challenges and opportunities for managing DEPO as an ecological
refugium in an era of climate change. The workshop included presentations on climate and
hydrological projections relevant to DEPO as well as physical and ecologic vulnerabilities and
potential impacts on visitors and infrastructure. Presentations were followed by a general
discussion on implications for managing DEPO as a refugium in an uncertain future.
Workshop Content Summaries
DEPO as a Case Study within the WestWide Climate Toolkit Project
Connie Millar, Sierra Nevada Research Center, Pacific Southwest Research Station
USDA Forest Service
In an era of climate change, existing management approaches have limited value and uncertainty
must be accepted as a premise for decision-making. Rather than managing for structure and
composition, decision makers should prioritize desired future processes and function. A “one
size fits all approach” is not prudent, and strategies should be applied in a variety of
combinations to meet the needs of various contexts.
Strategies that managers can draw upon include those that: (1) increase an ecosystem’s
resistance to change, (2) promote resilience to change, (3) encourage the ability to respond to
change, and (4) realign ecosystem conditions to current dynamics rather than historic conditions.
Because scientists cannot provide prescriptive answers, case studies are useful for analyzing how
various strategies can be applied, given potential climate change impacts and vulnerabilities in
specific settings. DEPO provides such an opportunity.
DEPO Overview: Site Specific and Regional Sierran Context
Deanna Dulen, Superintendent, Devils Postpile National Monument
In her efforts to integrate climate change into planning, Dulen is considering the following
management issues:
•
•
How to reduce the carbon footprint of visitation and access
Impacts of climate change on visitation patterns
Draft December 5, 2008
2
•
•
Possible pressures on rivers, including dam construction, and the implications of wild and
scenic river designation
Management of high species diversity
DEPO’s biodiversity is particularly rich due to a convergence of bioregions, a high percentage of
wetlands, its geologic history, and its proximity to the lowest pass in the eastern Sierra. Because
low passes will likely play a vital role in preserving links for species migration as climates
change, management of DEPO could have significant implications for the region. The park sits
in an area where cold-air pooling is intense and may buffer the effects of climate change. Dulen
is therefore considering managing DEPO as a refugium, or a physical area that is less affected by
climate change (due to geographic location, etc.) and is thus a refuge for organisms.
The management actions that Dulen forsees include:
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
Development of a more intensive inventory and monitoring program for surface and
groundwater
Assessment of possible wild and scenic river designation
Meadow monitoring
Restoration of meadows and springs
Bird habitat studies
Fire hazard management
Maintenance and development of migratory corridors
Controlling invasive species
Dulen takes an integrated approach to these issues and is partnering with staff from neighboring
national forests, in particular the Inyo National Forest, to consider management of the entire
Upper Middle Fork San Joaquin Watershed in the planning process.
Climate and Hydrologic Projections Relevant to DEPO
Can DEPO be a probable cold air sink to buffer climate change?
Mike Dettinger, Research Hydrologist, USGS/Scripps
Dettinger presented climate trends and future projections for Northern California and the
Northern Sierra Nevada as well as downscaled model outputs for DEPO. The region’s climate is
trending toward warmer temperatures, precipitation in the form of rain rather than snow, less
snowpack and earlier snowfed streamflow. More severe winter floods are predicted in at least
some settings, with drier summers in most. Soils could be wetter in winter due to “soggier”
snows, but will be drier in summer.
To assess the potential role of DEPO as a refugium, Dettinger analyzed the issue of cold air
pooling in the monument. He paired DEPO with an analog setting, Tuolumne Meadows, and
compared hourly temperatures, accumulated temperature differences and daily mean solar
insolation cycles. Overall, DEPO appears to be cooler. However, management of DEPO as a
cold refugium will require additional information to understand the process of cold air drainage
and how it will fare under generalized warming. This should include temperature transects, data
to determine wind sources, and an analog setting with a longer history.
Draft December 5, 2008
3
Vulnerabilities:
Groundwater (Chris Farrar, USGS)
The area around DEPO is generally water short due to its proximity to Los Angeles. Farrar
showed where groundwater and surface water interact in DEPO’s meadows and streams, and
highlighted areas vulnerable to climate change and local pumping. He also demonstrated
connections to external groundwater basins. He emphasized the need for more hydrologic
assessment, including inventory and monitoring of changes and trends.
Wetlands (Marie Denn, NPS)
Denn has mapped 60 acres of DEPO’s wetlands and conducted an assessment of their condition
and function. The condition evaluation was based on the state of the surrounding land,
modification of hydrology, and complexity of the physical environment and biological systems.
The function assessment was based on nutrient cycling, retention of sediment and other particles,
habitat health and biodiversity maintenance. Overall DEPO is characterized by a large number
of wetlands for its size. The majority are very high quality with the exception of two, most likely
due to damage by the Rainbow Fire of 1992.
Denn echoed previous scientists’ recommendations that more instrumentation and monitoring are
needed to forecast what may happen to reservoirs under climate change. There is also a need to
assess the status of amphibian populations as water temperatures rise. More broadly speaking, it
is important to consider what a transition in precipitation from snow to rain will do to wetland
conditions and associated species over time.
Birds (Sarah Stock, NPS)
Stock presented findings from bird monitoring conducted in Yosemite National Park between
1990-2008. Trend data showed a 23% reduction in landbird abundance and significant negative
population trends for 13 species. Species-specific analysis showed varied effects from reduced
spring snowpack – some species benefitted while others produced fewer young. Climate change
may be causing asynchrony in food sources with reproductive behavior due to shifts in timing of
insect hatching and plant flowering. However, birds that breed at low elevations may actually
benefit from prolonged moisture in meadows under changing climate. Stock would like to
further study whether population trends are site-specific or consistent with those seen elsewhere
in the Sierra.
Invertebrates (Jeff Holmquist, White Mountain Research Station)
Insects respond rapidly to ecosystem change. Wetter years correspond to a higher diversity of
terrestrial fauna, but less diversity in aquatics. This is primarily due to the fact that bigger snow
years produce bigger puddles, and lead to the development of a larger predator assemblage.
Drier winters may therefore lead to a higher abundance and diversity of aquatics. Some issues to
consider for management include the relationship between bird and invertebrate trends, and the
impacts of changing water temperatures on invertebrate populations.
Fire Mortality (Tony Caprio, NPS and Tony Westerling, University of California Merced)
Caprio presented past and contemporary fire regimes around DEPO. Although fire occurred
relatively rarely in the recent past, the Rainbow Fire of 1992 burned approximately 80% of the
Draft December 5, 2008
4
monument. A more extensive fire history shows that frequency was moderate and
predominantly understory, with increases generally from the north to the south. Application of
fire to areas of low-to-moderate severity may therefore be beneficial for restoring more natural
conditions.
Westerling presented his fire modeling work and showed that big fire years were 0.5°C warmer
on average than prior years. Early springs and longer dry seasons lead to more fires overall.
However, factors like topography, wind, and ignition are critical to consider at a local scale.
Westerling cautioned against the possible management of DEPO as a refugium due to less
overall spring snow water equivalent (SWE). The lack of recovery years and drier overall
conditions may lead to a very different disturbance regime in the future.
Insects and Forest Mortality (Martin MacKenzie, USFS)
Insect attacks and pathogens are species specific. Lodgepole pine stands are highly susceptible
to mountain pine beetle, while mixed conifers are vulnerable to dwarf mistletoe and white pines
in particular are susceptible to blister rust. Issues to consider for future management include the
tendency of insects to react to triggers and host availability as well as their ability to migrate to
new locations, especially up in elevation. Warming temperatures may also enable broods to
overwinter. Native pathogens can react quickly to changes in levels of host stress, which is a
concern given possible drier conditions under climate change.
Visitor Use (Bret Meldrum, NPS)
Preparing for greater visitor use is generally a good default for future planning. Current seasons
will likely extend, and water-based recreation is expected to become increasingly attractive as
temperatures rise. More intensive use and longer seasons lead to higher administrative and
operational costs as well as greater resource impacts. Managers should consider visitor
experiential thresholds (such as resistance to crowding) and changing travel patterns, as well as
opportunities to educate visitors about climate change and its implications for the monument.
Conclusion
The potential management of DEPO as a refugium raises several questions. While a refugium
can serve as a buffer, the “tipping point” at which it can no longer resist changing climate
conditions is difficult to predict. Furthermore, when thresholds are crossed, ecosystems may
change rapidly in undesired directions. Recognizing that effects of climate change are underway
and capitalizing on the significant research and monitoring momentum at DEPO, participants
suggested that the first GMP encourage continued but more coordinated research and monitoring
at DEPO. In particular, such efforts would focus on the central issues related to DEPO’s
adaptation objectives, whether as a refugium or otherwise, including the local hydrologic system,
cold air drainage and impacts on associated species. A whole-watershed approach is appropriate
and necessary. Staff from the neighboring Inyo National Forest have met with DEPO’s planning
team, have offered hydrologic data, and welcome opportunities to discuss management of the
Eastern Sierra as a unified system. This collaborative strategy, coupled with additional research,
will enable DEPO’s staff to take an integrated and informed approach to management in the face
of climate change.
Draft December 5, 2008
5
Next Steps
In early 2009 DEPO will engage in Foundational Planning for its General Management Plan.
The planning team will need to consider which actions are needed to help DEPO adapt to climate
change as well as the ramifications of potentially managing DEPO as a refugium. This effort
should be supported by development of a coordinated research and monitoring strategy that
enhances understanding of DEPO’s ecosystems. Research should address:
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
the interbasin connectivity of groundwater and impacts of expanded groundwater
pumping
understanding of ecological relationships to prevent loss of native pollinators
knowledge of migratory links for birds
status of amphibian species in wetland areas
impacts of a transition in precipitation from snow to rain on wetland conditions and
associated species
the nature of cold air drainage and wind patterns
meadow functions to support meadow preservation
relationship between bird and invertebrate trends
potential outcomes of possible Wild and Scenic River designation
Developing a stronger base of knowledge will enable planners and managers to more effectively
address the monument’s adaptation objectives. A more sophisticated understanding of
ecosystem process will also help managers evaluate the implications of managing DEPO as a
refugium going forward.
Draft December 5, 2008
6