SOCIAL-ECOLOGICAL CLIMATE RESILIENCE
SOUTHWEST COLORADO
Colorado Natural
Heritage Program
Salt Lake
Denver
SERVING
SOUTHWEST
COLORADO &
FOUR CORNERS
where the Rocky Mountains dive
into the Southwestern desert
San Juan
Mountains
Flagstaff
Albuquerque
SANDSTONE & RED ROCK DESERT
COLORADO PLATEAU MEETS THE ROCKIES
Project Goals
To integrate climate science into decision-making
• Build knowledge of social-ecological climate
vulnerabilities to inform planning
• Create scenarios and ecological models to
facilitate decision-making under uncertainty
• Develop and prioritize adaptive capacities and
institutional arrangements
• Document best practices for bringing climate
science into decision-making
69% TOTAL LAND BASE = PUBLIC LANDS
• Range 40-89%
IMAGE OF THE OLD WEST
IMAGE OF NEW WEST
TOURISM- 33%
MINERALS/
OIL & GAS- 8%
AG/RANCH- 1%
AMENITY/SECOND
HOMES - 15%
Ecological-Climate-Social
CLIMATE
SYSTEM
ECOLOGICAL
SYSTEMS
Ecosystems
Species
Functions
Processes
Project
Focus
Knowledge
Livelihoods
SOCIAL
Governance
SYSTEM
Culture
Values
The How
Choose four
adaptation targets
Understand
Current
Management and
Context
Monitor and
Evaluate
Develop three
climate and
narrative scenarios
Develop Range of
Future Changes
Conduct interviews ,
focus groups, and
workshops
Implement
Actions
Identify Priority
Concerns
Develop Plan for
Action
Select Priority
Strategies
Develop ecological
response models
Modified from Stein et al. 2014, Cross et al, and a whole lot of others
The What
Policies
Priorities Capacity
Resources
Understand
Current
Management and
Context
Monitor and
Evaluate
Implement
Actions
Develop Range of
Future Changes
Invasives
Drought
Flooding
Fire
Insects & Disease
Identify Priority
Concerns
Develop Plan for
Action
Resources
Coordinated Actions
Practice changes
Policy Changes
Select Priority
Strategies
Impacts
Concerns
Conflicts
Strategies
Barriers
Enabling conditions
No Regrets
Modified from Stein et al. 2014, Cross et al, and a whole lot of others
Springs
Pinyon-Juniper Landscape
Choose Adaptation Targets
and
Sagebrush Landscape
Seeps
Spruce-Fir Landscape
Produced Down-Scaled Climate Projections
And Scenarios
• Imtiaz Rangwala produced three
climate projections
• Annual, winter, and summer
temperature and precipitation for
SW Colorado
Hot/Dry
(#60)
All changes relative to 1971-2000
Moderate
Warming/
No Change
In
Precipitation
(#45)
Warm/Wet
(#11)
Developed Three Narrative Scenarios
• Hot and Dry
– Fire, Drought, Insects
• Moderate warming
– Feast or Famine
• Warm and Wet
– That’s nice
• We described ecological impacts for
the landscape and selected targets
–E.g., Fire intensity, severity, and scope
rise 10 fold over current and past
conditions in hot and dry scenario
–If it doesn’t burn then it dies from
insects and pathogen outbreaks
–Water volume in streams and reservoirs
is reduced
HD
MH
WW
Sagebrush Ecological Response
Model to Three Climate Scenarios
HD
MH
WW
Low Elevation
Sagebrush
Montane Sagebrush
Hybrid Zone
Montane Grasslands
Decrease in numbers and size and
transforms into montane shrubland
High Elevation
Meadows
HD
MH
WW
Mesic Swales
Aspen Patches
HD
MH
WW 0
HD
MH
WW 0
Low Elevation
Grasslands
Seeps and Springs
Mortality of
sagebrush in
patches >500
ac transforms
site into a
novel
grassland
that includes
cheatgrass
HD
MH
WW 0
Increase in size and condition
degrades
Decrease in numbers and volume
HD
MH
WW 0
HD = Hot and Dry; MH = Moderately Hot / no change in precip; WW = Warm and Wet
Stakeholder Interviews
Interviews
•25-40 individual interviews in each basin to help assess how
agencies manage their adaptation targets in the face of change.
•Major questions included:
– Importance of the targets, management objectives, challenges
or threats;
– Knowledge about the targets and perceived knowledge gaps;
– Perceptions of how climate change affects targets and
management planning;
– Questions about uncertainty, climate adaptation, and agency
capacity.
Stakeholder Focus Groups/Workshops
• Narrative scenarios presented and discussed
• Adaptation strategies brainstorming session
• Major questions included:
– How will management change under these different
scenarios?
– What impacts would you be concerned about?
– What conflicts and opportunities would you envision?
– What are pathways for adaptation strategies?
Reflecting on Stuff and Things
• Simultaneous research, planning, management- its
patting your head, rubbing your stomach
• Constraints- semantics matter!
• Co-production- double the budget!
• Question of integration- how and when
SOCIAL-ECOLOGICAL CLIMATE RESILIENCE
SOUTHWEST COLORADO
Colorado Natural
Heritage Program